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VTEX (VTEX) AI Stock Analysis

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VTEX

VTEX

(NYSE:VTEX)

Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(11.11% Upside)
VTEX's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, offset by bearish technical indicators and high valuation concerns. The company's strategic initiatives and global expansion are promising, but market challenges in Argentina and Brazil pose risks.
Positive Factors
AI Capabilities
VTEX's new AI capabilities improve their core DTC platform, leading to increased conversion and enhanced customer service.
International Growth
Large client announcements in the US and Europe are expected and could be well received by investors as important milestones for market share growth.
Margin Expansion
Margin expansion should drive multiple compression, leading to a solid margin and EPS expansion.
Negative Factors
Growth Guidance Reduction
The company reduced its 2025 growth guidance to 9%-12% from an already soft outlook of 14%-17%.
Revenue Guidance Cut
VTEX stock is down -32% since 2Q results, driven by a revenue guidance cut.
Weak Growth
VTEX reported weak growth, with subscription revenue up 11.2% compared to the expected 12.5%-15.5%, due to challenges in Argentina and Brazil.

VTEX (VTEX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

VTEX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVTEX provides software-as-a-service digital commerce platform for enterprise brands and retailers. Its platform enables customers to execute their commerce strategy, including building online stores, integrating, and managing orders across channels, and creating marketplaces to sell products from third-party vendors. It has operations in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, France, Italy, Mexico, Peru, Portugal, Romania, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. VTEX was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyVTEX primarily generates revenue through a subscription-based model, where businesses pay for access to its cloud-based digital commerce platform. This includes fees for the use of its e-commerce, marketplace, and order management solutions. The company also earns money from transactional fees, which are applied to the sales processed through its platform. Additionally, VTEX benefits from strategic partnerships with technology providers and system integrators, as well as offering professional services to help clients implement, customize, and optimize their digital commerce environments.

VTEX Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a resilient performance with significant achievements in global expansion and operational efficiency. Despite challenges in Argentina and market dynamics in Brazil, VTEX demonstrates strong financial discipline and profitability, underpinned by strategic initiatives in B2B commerce and retail media.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Global Expansion Success
VTEX expanded its partnership with Whirlpool in the U.S. for the launch of the KitchenAid website and added new enterprise customers in the U.S. and Europe, with these markets growing twice as fast as the overall company.
Strong Financial Performance
Non-GAAP income from operations increased by 46% in FX neutral to $8.5 million, representing a 14.4% margin and a 3.3% point margin increase year-over-year.
Subscription Revenue Growth
Subscription revenue reached $57.2 million, representing an 11% year-over-year increase in FX neutral.
Operational and Gross Margin Improvements
Gross profit reached $45.3 million, up 15.2% in FX neutral, with non-GAAP subscription gross margin reaching 80% in Q2 2025, up 180 basis points year-over-year.
Innovation and Strategic Initiatives
Investments in B2B commerce, retail media, and AI-powered solutions are unlocking new revenue streams and reinforcing VTEX's position in the market.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Argentina
The early signs of recovery in Argentina seen in the first quarter did not continue, with Q2 reflecting a reversal to negative double-digit GMV growth in FX neutral.
Brazil Market Dynamics
A mix shift towards new and larger customers with lower implied take rates in Brazil resulted in a more limited contribution to revenue growth.
Subscription Revenue Below FX-Neutral Guidance
Subscription revenue was within guidance in U.S. dollars but below on an FX-neutral basis due to market conditions.
Company Guidance
During the VTEX earnings call for Q2 2025, the company raised its guidance for non-GAAP income from operations and free cash flow by over 10%, despite a challenging market environment in Brazil and Argentina. Subscription revenue reached $57.2 million, representing an 11% increase year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis, although it was below guidance on an FX-neutral basis. Gross profit was $45.3 million, up 15.2% on an FX-neutral basis, with a 3.5 percentage point margin increase year-over-year. The company reported a non-GAAP income from operations of $8.5 million, marking a 46% increase on an FX-neutral basis and a 14.4% margin. VTEX's GMV reached $4.8 billion, growing 9% year-over-year in U.S. dollars and 14% on an FX-neutral basis. Despite macroeconomic challenges, VTEX emphasized its resilient business model, operational leverage, and successful global expansion, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, where growth was twice as fast as the overall company.

VTEX Financial Statement Overview

Summary
VTEX's financial performance is commendable, with strong revenue growth, improved profitability, and efficient cash flow management. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, enhancing financial stability. The company is well-positioned for future growth with its strong operational and financial metrics.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
VTEX has shown impressive revenue growth with a TTM growth rate of 98.5%, indicating strong market demand and expansion. The gross profit margin is robust at 74.17%, reflecting efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved significantly to 6.70%, showcasing enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved, indicating better operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet is strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.013, suggesting minimal leverage and financial risk. Return on equity (ROE) has improved to 6.03%, indicating better returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is healthy, reflecting a solid capital structure.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
VTEX has demonstrated strong cash flow performance with a free cash flow growth rate of 12.71%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.38, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.96, suggesting efficient conversion of profits into cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue230.47M226.71M201.52M157.62M125.77M98.68M
Gross Profit174.04M167.29M140.57M104.79M76.18M63.83M
EBITDA16.91M14.40M-4.03M-50.41M-64.42M7.06M
Net Income13.36M12.00M-13.69M-52.42M-60.51M-825.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets365.57M366.78M341.14M357.67M414.97M140.01M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments210.79M214.81M209.41M238.56M298.20M75.53M
Total Debt3.84M3.31M4.10M6.79M9.27M12.51M
Total Liabilities115.31M110.98M100.81M83.00M87.78M64.26M
Stockholders Equity250.22M255.75M240.29M274.66M327.18M75.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow33.25M25.19M3.79M-29.56M-54.74M9.52M
Operating Cash Flow34.19M27.26M4.26M-29.22M-52.99M11.16M
Investing Cash Flow-3.02M-20.01M38.42M-43.38M-166.78M-6.10M
Financing Cash Flow-33.06M-14.03M-38.43M-19.58M283.68M24.96M

VTEX Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.05
Price Trends
50DMA
5.40
Negative
100DMA
5.71
Negative
200DMA
5.73
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.39
Negative
RSI
31.84
Neutral
STOCH
40.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VTEX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.09, below the 50-day MA of 5.40, and below the 200-day MA of 5.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 31.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VTEX.

VTEX Risk Analysis

VTEX disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. VTEX reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

VTEX Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$1.74B593.71-0.13%21.92%95.91%
63
Neutral
$744.23M74.995.33%4.51%8241.83%
63
Neutral
$1.48B-5.41%5.96%50.29%
59
Neutral
$648.40M306.555.20%30.92%
55
Neutral
$360.89M-55.85%4.06%57.50%
54
Neutral
$297.28M3.24-13.34%2.74%5.71%-76.50%
52
Neutral
$696.87M-75.71%-5.06%-2318.18%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VTEX
VTEX
4.05
-2.49
-38.07%
CMRC
Commerce.com
4.66
-1.07
-18.67%
DSP
Viant Technology
10.31
0.24
2.38%
BMBL
Bumble
6.76
0.36
5.62%
OLO
Olo
10.28
5.54
116.88%
MLNK
MeridianLink
20.00
-3.54
-15.04%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025