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Riskified (RSKD)
NYSE:RSKD
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Riskified
(NYSE:RSKD)
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-3.23% Downside)
Positive Factors
Business Diversification
Riskified continues to diversify its business beyond the core chargeback guarantee, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.
Financial Performance
The 16% drop in shares is viewed as a buying opportunity as growth is expected to trough and gross margins are expected to improve in the second half.
Growth and Expansion
The newer Money Transfer and Payments category continues to see strong growth, up approximately 90% year-over-year in the quarter, driven by new merchant activity.
Negative Factors
Growth Slowdown
Including a $18 million headwind related to the deconversion of a large customer, initial 2025 guidance calls for 2%-6% revenue growth, which is a slowdown from 10% in 2024.
Revenue Challenges
Reported results will remain pressured by the previously disclosed $18 million revenue headwind related to the deconversion of a large six-year tenured customer in the home category.
Riskified (RSKD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$725.93M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)736.99K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth7.96%
EPS Growth5.67%
CountryUS
Employees652
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength83
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.07
Shares Outstanding112,781,640
10 Day Avg. Volume1,367,308
30 Day Avg. Volume736,994
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.66
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-11.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.63Price Target Upside21.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
Riskified Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionRiskified (RSKD) is a leading e-commerce risk management platform that operates within the technology and financial services sectors. The company specializes in fraud prevention and chargeback protection solutions, helping online retailers enhance their sales and customer experience by minimizing fraud-related losses. Riskified's core products leverage advanced machine learning and big data analytics to accurately identify and mitigate fraudulent transactions, thereby enabling merchants to approve more legitimate orders and reduce operational costs.
How the Company Makes MoneyRiskified makes money primarily through a revenue model based on transaction fees and service subscriptions. The company charges merchants a fee for each transaction processed through its platform, which is typically a percentage of the transaction value. This fee structure incentivizes merchants to use Riskified's services as it aligns the company's success with the merchant's revenue growth. Additionally, Riskified may offer subscription-based services that provide merchants with access to its suite of tools and analytics for ongoing fraud prevention and risk management. Strategic partnerships with payment processors and e-commerce platforms also play a crucial role in expanding Riskified's customer base and enhancing its service offerings, contributing to its overall earnings.
Riskified Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call displayed a generally positive outlook with consistent revenue growth, international expansion, and strong financial management reflected in positive adjusted EBITDA and a robust balance sheet. However, challenges such as the decline in the Home category, U.S. revenue, and gross profit margin were noted, along with same-store sales pressure. The overall sentiment leans towards optimism due to strategic initiatives and expansions outweighing current challenges.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Consistent Revenue Growth
Riskified achieved record second quarter revenue of $81.1 million, up 3% year-over-year, and first half revenue of $163.4 million, up 5% year-over-year, driven by new merchant and upsell activity.
Expansion in Key Verticals
The Tickets and Travel and Fashion and Luxury categories grew 15% and 10% year-over-year, respectively, supported by strong new business wins and upsell activity.
International Growth
APAC grew approximately 40% year-over-year, Other Americas (Canada and Latin America) grew approximately 16% year-over-year, and EMEA grew approximately 23% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing progress in capturing market share.
Positive Adjusted EBITDA
Riskified achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the seventh consecutive quarter, with $2.1 million in the second quarter and $3.5 million for the first half of 2025.
Strong Balance Sheet
The company ended the second quarter with $339 million of cash, deposits, and investments, and continues to carry zero debt.
Share Repurchase Program
The Board authorized an additional $75 million share repurchase program, increasing the total outstanding authorization to approximately $85 million.
Growth in Money Transfer and Payments
The Money Transfer and Payments category achieved approximately 90% year-over-year growth in the second quarter.
Negative Updates
Decline in Home Category
The Home category contracted by 74% year-over-year.
U.S. Revenue Decline
The United States revenue declined 11% year-over-year, primarily due to the contraction in the Home category.
Same-Store Sales Pressure
Continued same-store sales pressure, particularly within high-end fashion and sneakers verticals, with expectations of moderation in growth in the second half of the year.
Gross Profit Margin Decline
Non-GAAP gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was approximately 50%, down from 53% in the prior year, due to ramping of merchants in emerging categories and geographies.
Company Guidance
During Riskified's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance reflecting strong financial performance and strategic initiatives. Riskified reported a record second-quarter revenue of $81.1 million, a 3% year-over-year increase, and achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the seventh consecutive quarter, totaling $2.1 million. The company's GMV was $36.4 billion for the quarter, marking a 4% year-over-year growth, with robust performance in the Money Transfer and Payments category, which grew 90% year-over-year. Riskified's international expansion continued, with APAC and EMEA regions growing 40% and 23% year-over-year, respectively. The company anticipates second-half revenue between $336 million and $346 million, with an annual non-GAAP gross profit margin target of approximately 52%. The positive financial outlook is supported by advancements in AI capabilities and a $75 million share repurchase program, emphasizing confidence in long-term growth and shareholder value.Riskified Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Riskified shows strong revenue growth and a solid equity base, but faces challenges with profitability and reliance on external financing. The balance sheet is robust, yet consistent net losses and high operational expenses impact overall financial health.Income Statement
The company has demonstrated a consistent increase in revenue over the years with TTM revenue reaching $333.5 million, showing a 1.83% growth from the previous annual report. However, the company continues to operate at a net loss, with a TTM net profit margin of -11.15%. Gross profit margin remains healthy at 50.76% in the TTM, indicating strong product profitability, although EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative due to high operational costs.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
Riskified maintains a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating low leverage. The equity ratio is 78.14%, reflecting a robust financial structure with significant shareholder equity. However, the company has been experiencing declining stockholders' equity, which may pose a risk if the trend continues.72
Positive
Cash Flow
The company has shown positive free cash flow growth in recent periods, with a TTM free cash flow of $32.1 million, despite a decline from the previous annual report. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting that cash flow generation is healthier than reported accounting losses. However, reliance on financing activities to support operations may not be sustainable long-term.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 335.82M | 327.52M | 297.61M | 261.25M | 229.14M | 169.74M |
| Gross Profit | 168.02M | 170.94M | 152.52M | 135.10M | 122.97M | 92.82M |
| EBITDA | -43.62M | -42.97M | -71.75M | -108.63M | -55.40M | -5.45M |
| Net Income | -39.30M | -34.92M | -59.03M | -103.99M | -178.88M | -11.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 445.49M | 495.86M | 601.93M | 608.97M | 600.63M | 180.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 339.13M | 376.06M | 474.81M | 475.67M | 503.27M | 117.62M |
| Total Debt | 26.55M | 27.53M | 31.31M | 37.42M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 107.06M | 113.56M | 110.21M | 112.55M | 71.77M | 223.87M |
| Stockholders Equity | 338.43M | 382.30M | 491.72M | 496.42M | 528.86M | -43.31M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 33.44M | 39.06M | 5.92M | -34.26M | -33.78M | -6.08M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 34.14M | 39.70M | 7.28M | -26.25M | -20.28M | -3.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -42.32M | 27.75M | 251.56M | -210.01M | -84.44M | -16.96M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -116.15M | -136.82M | -9.31M | 3.85M | 423.19M | 54.02M |
Riskified Technical Analysis
Negative
4.65
Price Trends
5.04
Negative
4.90
Negative
4.91
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Positive
43.86
Neutral
46.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RSKD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.85, below the 50-day MA of 5.04, and below the 200-day MA of 4.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RSKD.
Riskified Risk Analysis
Riskified disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Riskified reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Riskified Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.25B | 9.90 | 21.16% | ― | 6.79% | 12.97% | |
63 Neutral | $748.91M | 76.10 | 5.33% | ― | 4.51% | 8241.83% | |
61 Neutral | $35.62B | 7.50 | -10.94% | 1.87% | 8.86% | -10.27% | |
59 Neutral | $635.81M | 300.60 | 5.20% | ― | 30.92% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $725.93M | ― | -10.16% | ― | 7.96% | 5.67% | |
50 Neutral | $670.87M | ― | -75.71% | ― | -5.06% | -2318.18% | |
50 Neutral | $899.85M | ― | -93.00% | ― | -4.76% | 67.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
RSKD
Riskified
4.65
-0.37
-7.37%
YALA
Yalla Group
7.87
3.79
92.89%
DSP
Viant Technology
10.02
-0.79
-7.31%
BMBL
Bumble
6.29
-0.30
-4.55%
BLND
Blend Labs
3.60
-0.14
-3.74%
VTEX
VTEX
4.03
-3.03
-42.92%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.