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Riskified (RSKD)
NYSE:RSKD
US Market

Riskified (RSKD) AI Stock Analysis

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RSKD

Riskified

(NYSE:RSKD)

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Neutral 51 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-4.86% Downside)
Riskified's overall score is driven by strong revenue growth and positive earnings call highlights, such as margin improvements and international expansion. However, ongoing profitability challenges, weak technical indicators, and a negative valuation score weigh heavily on the overall assessment.

Riskified (RSKD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Riskified Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRiskified (RSKD) is a technology company specializing in fraud prevention and risk management solutions for e-commerce businesses. Founded in 2013, the company operates primarily in the fintech and e-commerce sectors, offering a suite of services designed to enhance online transaction security. Riskified's core products include its fraud detection platform, which uses machine learning algorithms to analyze customer behavior and transaction data, helping businesses to reduce chargebacks and improve conversion rates.
How the Company Makes MoneyRiskified generates revenue primarily through a performance-based pricing model. The company charges merchants a fee based on the volume of transactions processed through its platform, typically taking a percentage of the sales secured by its fraud prevention services. This model aligns Riskified's success with that of its clients, as the company only earns fees when transactions are approved and completed, minimizing risk for merchants. Additionally, Riskified may engage in partnerships with payment processors and e-commerce platforms, further enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base, which contributes to its overall earnings.

Riskified Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 12, 2025
(Q3-2025)
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% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Riskified showed strong growth and recovery in key areas such as gross profit, money transfer, and international markets. However, declines in the US market and specific categories like home and live events pose challenges. Overall, the highlights of growth, technological advancements, and positive projections outweigh the lowlights.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Turnaround in Gross Profit
Riskified improved from a 4% decline in non-GAAP gross profit in the first half of the year to a 5% growth in Q3 2025.
Strong Performance in Money Transfer and Payments
The money transfer and payments category grew 100% year over year in the third quarter, driven by new business activity.
Record Third Quarter Revenue
Riskified achieved a record third quarter revenue of $81.9 million, up 4% year over year.
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Expansion
Riskified reported a 560 basis points improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin year over year in the third quarter.
Adaptive Checkout Success
Adaptive checkout increased conversion by 5% for a US ticketing merchant and by 26% for an EMEA electronics merchant.
Strong International Growth
APAC grew approximately 55%, other Americas grew 18%, and EMEA increased 19% year over year in the third quarter.
Negative Updates
Decline in US Revenue
US revenue declined by 12% year over year, primarily due to a contraction in the home category.
Challenges in Tickets and Live Events
There was softness in the tickets and live events vertical due to tougher comparable periods in the second half versus 2024.
Home Category Contraction
The home category contracted by approximately 70% year over year.
Company Guidance
During Riskified's Third Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided a comprehensive financial and operational update, highlighting several key metrics and strategic initiatives. Notably, Riskified reported a third-quarter GMV of $37.8 billion, marking a 97% year-over-year increase, and a revenue of $81.9 million, up 4% from the previous year. The company achieved a non-GAAP gross profit of $41.5 million, reflecting a 5% growth and a gross profit margin of approximately 51%. A significant highlight was the 100% year-over-year growth in the money transfer and payments category, driven by new business activity. Riskified also reported an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 560 basis points, reaching approximately 7% in Q3, with expectations of a further increase to around 15% in Q4. Additionally, the company maintained a strong cash position with $325 million in cash deposits and investments, and zero debt, while generating $13.4 million in free cash flow for the quarter. Looking ahead, Riskified raised the bottom end of its 2025 revenue guidance for the second consecutive quarter to between $338 million and $346 million. The company remains focused on leveraging its advancements in machine learning, expanding its autonomously trained model program, and capitalizing on growth opportunities in new verticals and geographies, as it positions itself for continued growth and profitability in 2026.

Riskified Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Riskified Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price4.73
Price Trends
50DMA
4.86
Positive
100DMA
4.76
Positive
200DMA
4.84
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.02
Positive
RSI
52.93
Neutral
STOCH
65.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RSKD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.94, below the 50-day MA of 4.86, and below the 200-day MA of 4.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RSKD.

Riskified Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
$896.44M-13.479.19%9.63%-112.71%
66
Neutral
$652.11M98.736.53%3.62%-20.45%
65
Neutral
$725.48M440.154.45%22.97%49.49%
61
Neutral
$629.99M-13.15-26.69%13.09%32.34%
51
Neutral
$764.34M-21.27-10.54%6.54%-19.17%
51
Neutral
$396.84M-1.85-25.34%-7.43%61.36%
* Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RSKD
Riskified
4.97
0.34
7.34%
SPT
Sprout Social
10.64
-19.74
-64.98%
OPFI
OppFi
10.38
0.64
6.57%
DSP
Viant Technology
11.62
-5.71
-32.95%
BMBL
Bumble
3.52
-3.96
-52.94%
VTEX
VTEX
3.67
-2.15
-36.94%

Riskified Corporate Events

Riskified Announces $13.9 Million Share Repurchase with Pitango
Nov 24, 2025

On November 24, 2025, Riskified Ltd. announced a share repurchase agreement with Pitango Venture Capital, buying back 3,000,000 Class A ordinary shares for approximately $13.9 million. This strategic move, approved by the company’s Audit Committee and Board of Directors, reflects Riskified’s ongoing efforts to optimize its capital structure and could enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (RSKD) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Riskified stock, see the RSKD Stock Forecast page.

Riskified Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results with Accelerated Growth
Nov 12, 2025

On November 12, 2025, Riskified Ltd. announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting accelerated gross profit growth and an expansion in adjusted EBITDA. The company reported significant achievements in the Money Transfer and Payments category, with 100% year-over-year revenue growth, and continued to diversify its vertical and geographic reach by onboarding new merchants. Riskified also completed its first-ever Global Ascend tour, enhancing its brand presence and relationships across major ecommerce hubs. The company achieved AWS Retail and CPG Competencies, further solidifying its position in the digital commerce space. Despite a net loss, Riskified ended the quarter with strong cash reserves and no debt, and it improved its financial guidance for the full year 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (RSKD) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Riskified stock, see the RSKD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 15, 2025