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Riskified (RSKD)
NYSE:RSKD
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Riskified (RSKD) AI Stock Analysis

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RSKD

Riskified

(NYSE:RSKD)

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Neutral 51 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-3.23% Downside)
Riskified's overall stock score is driven by strong revenue growth and strategic expansions, as highlighted in the earnings call. However, profitability challenges and a bearish technical outlook weigh on the score. The negative valuation metrics further impact the overall assessment.
Positive Factors
International Expansion
Strong international growth in APAC and EMEA regions indicates successful market penetration and potential for sustained revenue expansion.
Cash Position
A strong cash position and zero debt provide financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and resilience against economic fluctuations.
Share Repurchase Program
The share repurchase program reflects management's confidence in the company's long-term growth prospects and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Persistent profitability issues, indicated by negative margins, could hinder long-term financial health and shareholder returns if not addressed.
U.S. Revenue Decline
Declining U.S. revenue, especially in key categories, suggests challenges in maintaining domestic market share, impacting overall growth.
Gross Profit Margin Decline
A declining gross profit margin indicates potential cost pressures or pricing challenges, which could affect future profitability if not managed.

Riskified (RSKD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Riskified Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRiskified Ltd. operates an e-commerce risk management platform that allows online merchants to create trusted relationships with their consumers in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers Chargeback Guarantee that approves or denies online orders; Policy Protect and Account Secure, which identifies and blocks consumers that may be taking advantage of the merchant's terms and conditions or that may be trying to gain unauthorized access to another consumer's account; Deco and PSD2, a optimize products that help merchants to avoid bank authorization failures and abandoned shopping carts resulting from the secure customer authentication process. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.
How the Company Makes MoneyRiskified generates revenue primarily through a performance-based pricing model. The company charges merchants a fee based on the volume of transactions processed through its platform, typically taking a percentage of the sales secured by its fraud prevention services. This model aligns Riskified's success with that of its clients, as the company only earns fees when transactions are approved and completed, minimizing risk for merchants. Additionally, Riskified may engage in partnerships with payment processors and e-commerce platforms, further enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base, which contributes to its overall earnings.

Riskified Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call displayed a generally positive outlook with consistent revenue growth, international expansion, and strong financial management reflected in positive adjusted EBITDA and a robust balance sheet. However, challenges such as the decline in the Home category, U.S. revenue, and gross profit margin were noted, along with same-store sales pressure. The overall sentiment leans towards optimism due to strategic initiatives and expansions outweighing current challenges.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Consistent Revenue Growth
Riskified achieved record second quarter revenue of $81.1 million, up 3% year-over-year, and first half revenue of $163.4 million, up 5% year-over-year, driven by new merchant and upsell activity.
Expansion in Key Verticals
The Tickets and Travel and Fashion and Luxury categories grew 15% and 10% year-over-year, respectively, supported by strong new business wins and upsell activity.
International Growth
APAC grew approximately 40% year-over-year, Other Americas (Canada and Latin America) grew approximately 16% year-over-year, and EMEA grew approximately 23% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing progress in capturing market share.
Positive Adjusted EBITDA
Riskified achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the seventh consecutive quarter, with $2.1 million in the second quarter and $3.5 million for the first half of 2025.
Strong Balance Sheet
The company ended the second quarter with $339 million of cash, deposits, and investments, and continues to carry zero debt.
Share Repurchase Program
The Board authorized an additional $75 million share repurchase program, increasing the total outstanding authorization to approximately $85 million.
Growth in Money Transfer and Payments
The Money Transfer and Payments category achieved approximately 90% year-over-year growth in the second quarter.
Negative Updates
Decline in Home Category
The Home category contracted by 74% year-over-year.
U.S. Revenue Decline
The United States revenue declined 11% year-over-year, primarily due to the contraction in the Home category.
Same-Store Sales Pressure
Continued same-store sales pressure, particularly within high-end fashion and sneakers verticals, with expectations of moderation in growth in the second half of the year.
Gross Profit Margin Decline
Non-GAAP gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was approximately 50%, down from 53% in the prior year, due to ramping of merchants in emerging categories and geographies.
Company Guidance
During Riskified's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance reflecting strong financial performance and strategic initiatives. Riskified reported a record second-quarter revenue of $81.1 million, a 3% year-over-year increase, and achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the seventh consecutive quarter, totaling $2.1 million. The company's GMV was $36.4 billion for the quarter, marking a 4% year-over-year growth, with robust performance in the Money Transfer and Payments category, which grew 90% year-over-year. Riskified's international expansion continued, with APAC and EMEA regions growing 40% and 23% year-over-year, respectively. The company anticipates second-half revenue between $336 million and $346 million, with an annual non-GAAP gross profit margin target of approximately 52%. The positive financial outlook is supported by advancements in AI capabilities and a $75 million share repurchase program, emphasizing confidence in long-term growth and shareholder value.

Riskified Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Riskified demonstrates strong revenue growth and a solid balance sheet with low leverage. However, the company faces challenges in achieving profitability, as reflected in negative margins and returns. Improving operational efficiency and cash flow management will be crucial for enhancing financial performance and shareholder value.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Riskified's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a TTM growth rate of 69.9%, indicating strong market demand. However, profitability remains a challenge, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is stable at around 50%, but the company needs to improve operational efficiency to achieve profitability.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.078, suggesting conservative leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is healthy, but the company needs to address its profitability issues to enhance shareholder value.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend in free cash flow growth, with a TTM growth rate of 4.2%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is above 0.5, indicating decent cash generation relative to net income. However, the company must continue to improve its cash flow management to support long-term sustainability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue335.82M327.52M297.61M261.25M229.14M169.74M
Gross Profit168.02M170.94M152.52M135.10M122.97M92.82M
EBITDA-43.62M-42.97M-71.75M-108.63M-55.40M-5.45M
Net Income-39.30M-34.92M-59.03M-103.99M-178.88M-11.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets445.49M495.86M601.93M608.97M600.63M180.56M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments339.13M376.06M474.81M475.67M503.27M117.62M
Total Debt26.55M27.53M31.31M37.42M0.000.00
Total Liabilities107.06M113.56M110.21M112.55M71.77M223.87M
Stockholders Equity338.43M382.30M491.72M496.42M528.86M-43.31M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow33.44M39.06M5.92M-34.26M-33.78M-6.08M
Operating Cash Flow34.14M39.70M7.28M-26.25M-20.28M-3.12M
Investing Cash Flow-42.32M27.75M251.56M-210.01M-84.44M-16.96M
Financing Cash Flow-116.15M-136.82M-9.31M3.85M423.19M54.02M

Riskified Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.65
Price Trends
50DMA
4.75
Negative
100DMA
4.92
Negative
200DMA
4.90
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.02
Positive
RSI
47.24
Neutral
STOCH
30.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RSKD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.68, below the 50-day MA of 4.75, and below the 200-day MA of 4.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RSKD.

Riskified Risk Analysis

Riskified disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Riskified reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Riskified Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$827.93M84.625.33%4.51%208.14%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
61
Neutral
$688.02M-32.50%14.79%27.52%
60
Neutral
$876.55M50.49-209.49%6.79%-593.75%
59
Neutral
$533.20M261.615.20%30.92%
51
Neutral
$730.86M-10.16%7.96%5.67%
49
Neutral
$589.74M-75.71%-5.06%-2318.18%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RSKD
Riskified
4.51
-0.10
-2.17%
SPT
Sprout Social
10.85
-18.05
-62.46%
OPFI
OppFi
10.06
5.36
114.04%
DSP
Viant Technology
8.14
-3.11
-27.64%
BMBL
Bumble
5.07
-1.74
-25.55%
VTEX
VTEX
4.57
-2.56
-35.90%

Riskified Corporate Events

Riskified Announces Q2 2025 Results and New Share Buyback Program
Aug 18, 2025

On August 18, 2025, Riskified Ltd. announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting new business wins and robust upsell activity. The company reported a 3% increase in revenue compared to the previous year and announced a new $75 million share repurchase authorization, reflecting confidence in its long-term potential. Riskified also expanded its market reach with new merchant additions and partnerships, notably strengthening its position in the ticketing and live events sector and launching innovative ecommerce solutions.

Riskified Approves New Compensation Policy at Annual Meeting
Aug 7, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Riskified Ltd. held its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders in Tel Aviv, where shareholders approved several proposals, including an Amended & Restated Compensation Policy for Executive Officers and Directors. This policy aims to align executive compensation with the company’s goals and performance, ensuring competitive salaries and incentives to attract and retain top talent. The approval of this policy is expected to enhance Riskified’s operational efficiency and shareholder value by motivating executives to achieve long-term corporate success.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 07, 2025