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Riskified
(NYSE:RSKD)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲(19.52% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial quality (positive and growing free cash flow and low leverage) and a constructive earnings call (raised guidance and strong adjusted EBITDA leverage). Offsetting factors are the lack of GAAP profitability, valuation limitations from a negative P/E, and only neutral-to-moderate technical momentum.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & Low Leverage
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow (~$40M TTM) combined with very low leverage (D/E ~0.09) provides durable financial flexibility to fund product investment, underwrite guarantee liabilities, execute buybacks, and absorb merchant volume swings without refinancing risk.
Negative Factors
GAAP Profitability Not Yet Achieved
Despite improved adjusted metrics, GAAP net losses persist (Q1 net loss $4.4M) and ROE remains negative (~‑8%). This indicates the company has not fully converted operational gains into GAAP profitability, limiting returns to shareholders until sustained GAAP earnings are achieved.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & Low Leverage
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow (~$40M TTM) combined with very low leverage (D/E ~0.09) provides durable financial flexibility to fund product investment, underwrite guarantee liabilities, execute buybacks, and absorb merchant volume swings without refinancing risk.
Read all positive factors
Riskified (RSKD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$715.85M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)943.33K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth5.10%
EPS Growth48.36%
CountryUS
Employees663
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.12
Shares Outstanding93,613,890
10 Day Avg. Volume572,400
30 Day Avg. Volume943,325
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.76
Price to Book (P/B)2.65
Price to Sales (P/S)2.27
P/FCF Ratio23.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.75Price Target Upside14.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$380.20M
Riskified Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel, and incorporated in 2012, Riskified Ltd. provides a comprehensive e-commerce risk management platform. This platform empowers online merchants to foster secure relationships with their consumers across global mar...
How the Company Makes Money
Riskified generates revenue primarily by providing fraud prevention and chargeback-related services to e-commerce merchants via its software and decisioning platform. Its core model is tied to merchants’ transaction volume: merchants submit e-comm...
Riskified Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid operational momentum: revenue, gross profit and GMV growth; a large improvement in adjusted EBITDA; healthy cash flow and a stronger balance sheet; raised guidance; product expansion (ACH, identity, ARIA) and expanding distribution channels. Offsetting factors include a billing-to-revenue recognition gap, remaining GAAP loss, category concentration (75% of billings in three categories), fashion & luxury softness in APAC, and near-term expense timing that lifts Q2 spend. On balance the positives—especially the large EBITDA leverage, product traction, ACH/alternative payment wins, and guidance raise—outweigh the lowlight risks, though execution and timing remain important for achieving full-year targets.Positive Updates
Revenue and Gross Profit Growth
Q1 revenue of $88.3M, up 7% year-over-year; non-GAAP gross profit of $46.3M, up 13% year-over-year; GMV of $37.2B, up 9% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Revenue Recognition Timing vs Billings
Billings grew 11% while reported revenue grew 7%, described as one of the widest billings-to-revenue gaps in several years—reflecting timing of guarantee accounting and potential near-term revenue recognition variability.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Gross Profit Growth
Q1 revenue of $88.3M, up 7% year-over-year; non-GAAP gross profit of $46.3M, up 13% year-over-year; GMV of $37.2B, up 9% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Riskified raised the low end of its full‑year 2026 guidance, now expecting revenue of $376–$384 million (midpoint $380M) and adjusted EBITDA of $28–$34 million (midpoint $31M), up from a prior adj. EBITDA low of $26M; it also guides full‑year gross profit growth of 8–12% (midpoint implying ~10% quarterly growth) and expects each quarter to approximate the same percentage of annual revenue as in 2025. The company reiterated ~ $40M of positive free cash flow for 2026 (Q1 FCF was $9M), raised Q2 non‑GAAP operating expense to ~ $43M (Q1 was $40.1M) and expects H2 quarterly op‑expenses of $42–$43M. Q1 operating metrics that underpin the outlook included revenue $88.3M (+7% YoY), GMV $37.2B (+9%), billings +11% (wider than revenue), gross profit $46.3M (+13%), adjusted EBITDA $6.2M (+370% YoY), cash/investments ~$276M, zero debt, and ongoing share repurchases (Q1: 6.2M shares for $27.5M; total repurchases 58.2M shares for $287M, a ~19% reduction in shares outstanding).Riskified Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 350.52M | 344.64M | 327.52M | 297.61M | 261.25M | 229.14M |
| Gross Profit | 182.38M | 175.98M | 170.94M | 152.52M | 135.10M | 122.97M |
| EBITDA | -3.46M | -5.62M | -23.62M | -48.14M | -95.06M | -175.88M |
| Net Income | -18.11M | -27.57M | -34.92M | -59.03M | -104.70M | -179.43M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 374.88M | 410.57M | 495.86M | 601.93M | 606.98M | 600.63M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 276.34M | 297.58M | 376.06M | 474.81M | 475.67M | 503.27M |
| Total Debt | 23.87M | 25.02M | 27.53M | 31.31M | 37.42M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 102.65M | 115.81M | 113.56M | 110.21M | 112.55M | 71.77M |
| Stockholders Equity | 272.23M | 294.76M | 382.30M | 491.72M | 494.44M | 528.86M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 39.79M | 33.07M | 39.06M | 5.92M | -34.26M | -33.78M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 40.58M | 33.88M | 39.70M | 7.28M | -26.25M | -20.28M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -73.26M | -132.85M | 27.75M | 251.56M | -210.01M | -84.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -121.03M | -110.66M | -136.82M | -9.31M | 3.85M | 423.19M |
Riskified Risk Analysis
Riskified disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Riskified reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Riskified Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $1.35B | 2.60 | 134.28% | ― | 12.95% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $702.98M | 23.08 | 12.98% | ― | 9.62% | -99.69% | |
70 Outperform | $619.63M | -20.10 | -14.05% | ― | 11.85% | 47.54% | |
69 Neutral | $715.85M | -46.22 | -5.93% | ― | 5.10% | 48.36% | |
68 Neutral | $867.67M | 121.47 | 16.65% | ― | 18.15% | 331.16% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
52 Neutral | $373.47M | -0.71 | -110.37% | ― | -13.33% | 45.52% |
* Technology Sector Average
RSKD
Riskified
5.32
0.27
5.35%
SPT
Sprout Social
10.05
-3.32
-24.83%
OPFI
OppFi
8.77
-2.13
-19.54%
DSP
Viant Technology
14.09
2.09
17.42%
BMBL
Bumble
2.73
-3.59
-56.80%
VTEX
VTEX
4.03
-0.16
-3.82%
Riskified Corporate Events
Riskified Shareholders Approve All Proposals at August 2026 Annual Meeting
Aug 7, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Riskified Ltd. held its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders at its Tel Aviv office in Israel, with investors voting on corporate proposals under Israel Companies Law. All items presented in the notice and proxy statement were...
Riskified Sets August 6 Annual Meeting to Approve Board Slate and 2026 Auditor
Jun 30, 2026
Riskified has called its shareholders to an Annual General Meeting scheduled for August 6, 2026, at its Tel Aviv office, with voting eligibility set for holders of record as of June 17, 2026. The company is distributing a proxy statement and cards...
Riskified Adds Fintech Veteran Ronen Assia to Expanded Board
Jun 29, 2026
Riskified announced that its Board of Directors expanded to nine members with the appointment of Ronen Assia as an independent director, effective June 25, 2026. Assia, co-founder and Executive Director of eToro and Managing Partner at venture gro...
Riskified Board Adds $75 Million to Share Buyback Authorization
Jun 5, 2026
On June 4, 2026, Riskified’s board authorized an additional share repurchase “distribution” of up to $75 million in Class A ordinary shares, subject to completion of Israeli regulatory procedures. This new approval comes on top o...
Riskified Lifts 2026 Outlook After Strong First Quarter and Margin Gains
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Riskified reported first-quarter 2026 results showing a 9% year-on-year increase in gross merchandise volume to $37.2 billion and a 7% rise in revenue to $88.3 million, with GAAP gross profit up 13% and margins improving to 52%. T...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.