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Riskified (RSKD)
NYSE:RSKD
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Riskified
(NYSE:RSKD)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(6.18%Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial Position
Riskified maintains a strong balance sheet with $376 million cash and no debt, and continues to improve margins and free cash flow.
Management Confidence
Management expressed confidence in navigating the uncertain macro environment and its 2025 guidance.
Product Growth
Growth of newer, higher-margin solutions such as Policy Protect, Dispute Resolve, Account Secure, and Policy Decisions has been encouraging.
Negative Factors
Growth Slowdown
Including a $18 million headwind related to the deconversion of a large customer, initial 2025 guidance calls for 2%-6% revenue growth, which is a slowdown from 10% in 2024.
Revenue Pressure
Reported results will remain pressured by the previously disclosed $18 million revenue headwind related to the deconversion of a large six-year tenured customer in the home category.
Riskified (RSKD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$824.95M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)497.79K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue Growth9.30%
EPS Growth24.96%
CountryUS
Employees652
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength89
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding112,781,640
10 Day Avg. Volume430,259
30 Day Avg. Volume497,793
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.44
Price to Book (P/B)2.24
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio24.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.65
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.16
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.87
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.04Price Target Upside16.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
Riskified Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionRiskified Ltd. operates an e-commerce risk management platform that allows online merchants to create trusted relationships with their consumers in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers Chargeback Guarantee that approves or denies online orders; Policy Protect and Account Secure, which identifies and blocks consumers that may be taking advantage of the merchant's terms and conditions or that may be trying to gain unauthorized access to another consumer's account; Deco and PSD2, a optimize products that help merchants to avoid bank authorization failures and abandoned shopping carts resulting from the secure customer authentication process. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.
How the Company Makes MoneyRiskified makes money primarily through a revenue model based on transaction fees and service subscriptions. The company charges merchants a fee for each transaction processed through its platform, which is typically a percentage of the transaction value. This fee structure incentivizes merchants to use Riskified's services as it aligns the company's success with the merchant's revenue growth. Additionally, Riskified may offer subscription-based services that provide merchants with access to its suite of tools and analytics for ongoing fraud prevention and risk management. Strategic partnerships with payment processors and e-commerce platforms also play a crucial role in expanding Riskified's customer base and enhancing its service offerings, contributing to its overall earnings.
Riskified Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 4.86%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Riskified demonstrated strong international growth, high retention rates, and significant new product revenue growth, maintaining positive adjusted EBITDA. However, challenges were noted in the home category and same-store sales pressure, with a decline in gross margins.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Growth
Riskified reported a revenue growth of 8% year-over-year, reaching $82.4 million in Q1 2025. GMV for the quarter was $34.2 billion, reflecting a 7% increase year-over-year.
High Retention Rates
Riskified achieved a 100% renewal rate across its top 20 contracts up for renewal during the first quarter, with nearly half extended as multiyear agreements.
Significant Growth in New Product Revenue
New product revenue growth was up approximately 190% year-over-year, driven by the adoption of Riskified's expanded product portfolio.
International Growth
Eight of Riskified's top 10 new logos won during the first quarter were headquartered outside of the United States, with significant growth in APAC (70%) and Outer Americas (13%).
Positive Adjusted EBITDA
Riskified reported a positive adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 million for the first quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.
Negative Updates
Decline in Home Category
The home category contracted by 74%, contributing to a 5% year-over-year decline in the United States.
Same-Store Sales Pressure
Continued same-store sales pressure was noted in high-end fashion and sneakers sub-verticals, impacting overall growth.
Gross Margin Decline
The non-GAAP gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was approximately 50%, a year-over-year decline due to the ramp-up of significant new merchants in newer categories and geographies.
Company Guidance
During Riskified's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided detailed guidance on its financial performance and strategic initiatives. The call highlighted an 8% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by a global go-to-market strategy and a 100% renewal rate for top 20 contracts. The company reported a GMV of $34.2 billion, reflecting a 7% increase year-over-year, and first-quarter revenue of $82.4 million. Riskified achieved a positive adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 million for the sixth consecutive quarter and maintained a strong balance sheet with $357 million in cash and zero debt. The company projected full-year revenue between $333 million and $346 million, with adjusted EBITDA ranging from $18 million to $26 million. The pipeline expansion and product portfolio growth, particularly in the money transfer and payments category, contributed to a 190% increase in new product revenue year-over-year. Despite macroeconomic challenges, Riskified remains confident in its ability to generate additional adjusted EBITDA margin expansion and deliver long-term shareholder value.Riskified Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Riskified shows strong revenue growth and a solid equity base, but faces challenges with profitability due to consistent net losses and high operational costs. The robust balance sheet with low leverage and healthy gross margin are positives, yet the reliance on external financing and negative net income are concerns.Income Statement
The company has demonstrated a consistent increase in revenue over the years with TTM revenue reaching $333.5 million, showing a 1.83% growth from the previous annual report. However, the company continues to operate at a net loss, with a TTM net profit margin of -11.15%. Gross profit margin remains healthy at 50.76% in the TTM, indicating strong product profitability, although EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative due to high operational costs.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
Riskified maintains a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating low leverage. The equity ratio is 78.14%, reflecting a robust financial structure with significant shareholder equity. However, the company has been experiencing declining stockholders' equity, which may pose a risk if the trend continues.72
Positive
Cash Flow
The company has shown positive free cash flow growth in recent periods, with a TTM free cash flow of $32.1 million, despite a decline from the previous annual report. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting that cash flow generation is healthier than reported accounting losses. However, reliance on financing activities to support operations may not be sustainable long-term.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 333.50M | 327.52M | 297.61M | 261.25M | 229.14M | 169.74M |
| Gross Profit | 169.27M | 170.94M | 152.52M | 135.10M | 122.97M | 92.82M |
| EBITDA | -44.42M | -42.97M | -71.75M | -108.63M | -55.40M | -5.45M |
| Net Income | -37.18M | -34.92M | -59.03M | -103.99M | -178.88M | -11.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 459.76M | 495.86M | 601.93M | 608.97M | 600.63M | 180.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 357.07M | 376.06M | 474.81M | 475.67M | 503.27M | 117.62M |
| Total Debt | 26.10M | 27.53M | 31.31M | 37.42M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 100.44M | 113.56M | 110.21M | 112.55M | 71.77M | 223.87M |
| Stockholders Equity | 359.33M | 382.30M | 491.72M | 496.42M | 528.86M | -43.31M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 32.09M | 39.06M | 5.92M | -34.26M | -33.78M | -6.08M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 32.88M | 39.70M | 7.28M | -26.25M | -20.28M | -3.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -37.92M | 27.75M | 251.56M | -210.01M | -84.44M | -16.96M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -129.74M | -136.82M | -9.31M | 3.85M | 423.19M | 54.02M |
Riskified Technical Analysis
Positive
5.18
Price Trends
4.95
Positive
4.87
Positive
4.82
Positive
Market Momentum
0.07
Negative
59.55
Neutral
66.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RSKD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.01, above the 50-day MA of 4.95, and above the 200-day MA of 4.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RSKD.
Riskified Risk Analysis
Riskified disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Riskified reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Riskified Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $1.16B | 9.47 | 21.03% | ― | 6.40% | 9.72% | |
71 Outperform | $1.15B | 76.90 | 6.26% | ― | 7.71% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $864.04M | 471.43 | 4.15% | ― | 30.64% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $824.95M | ― | -9.00% | ― | 9.30% | 24.96% | |
63 Neutral | $33.87B | 5.80 | -11.87% | 1.82% | 5.31% | -18.50% | |
58 Neutral | $654.87M | ― | -46.57% | ― | -2.39% | -2961.26% | |
49 Neutral | $894.49M | ― | -93.00% | ― | -0.40% | 63.36% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
RSKD
Riskified
5.23
-0.99
-15.92%
YALA
Yalla Group
7.28
2.59
55.22%
DSP
Viant Technology
14.19
3.90
37.90%
BMBL
Bumble
6.71
-2.50
-27.14%
BLND
Blend Labs
3.57
1.11
45.12%
VTEX
VTEX
6.36
-0.75
-10.55%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.