Riskified Ltd. Class A (RSKD)
NYSE:RSKD
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Riskified
(NYSE:RSKD)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-9.30% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals—especially sustained positive free cash flow and low leverage—supported by constructive 2026 guidance and profitability/FCF targets. Offsetting these positives are continued GAAP losses/negative ROE, only moderate technical momentum with the stock below key longer-term averages, and limited valuation support due to a negative P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Riskified’s transition to sustained positive operating and free cash flow across 2023–2025 provides a durable funding source for product investment, incremental M&A or capital returns. Positive FCF reduces reliance on external financing and supports the company’s ability to fund growth and buybacks while absorbing near-term volatility.
Negative Factors
Negative ROE / equity erosion
Despite operational improvements, cumulative GAAP losses have materially reduced equity and kept ROE negative. This constrains shareholder returns, limits balance-sheet flexibility for large investments without dilution, and means stockholder-level profitability remains a structural objective rather than a current reality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Riskified’s transition to sustained positive operating and free cash flow across 2023–2025 provides a durable funding source for product investment, incremental M&A or capital returns. Positive FCF reduces reliance on external financing and supports the company’s ability to fund growth and buybacks while absorbing near-term volatility.
Read all positive factors
Riskified (RSKD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$561.70M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)773.76K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth6.54%
EPS Growth-19.17%
CountryUS
Employees652
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.12
Shares Outstanding104,086,660
10 Day Avg. Volume812,115
30 Day Avg. Volume773,760
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.84
Price to Book (P/B)2.65
Price to Sales (P/S)2.27
P/FCF Ratio23.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-19.88
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.58Price Target Upside26.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$378.80M
Riskified Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Riskified Ltd. operates an e-commerce risk management platform that allows online merchants to create trusted relationships with their consumers in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers Chargeback Guara...
How the Company Makes Money
Riskified primarily makes money by charging merchants for the use of its e-commerce fraud and risk decisioning services, typically tied to the volume and/or value of transactions that flow through its platform. A central revenue stream is fees for...
Riskified Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum: record quarterly revenue and GMV, improved retention metrics (ADR ~100%, NDR 105%), meaningful progress to profitability (GAAP and adjusted EBITDA), robust international and payments vertical growth, product expansion with multi-product adoption, healthy cash balance and continued buybacks. Key headwinds include a significant FX (shekel) impact (~400bps to adjusted EBITDA margin), some category and cohort softness (US/home, tickets/live events, 2022 cohort), and early-stage risks tied to agentic commerce which introduce higher fraud complexity. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (revenue growth, gross profit growth, adjusted EBITDA) while emphasizing gross-profit centric go-to-market priorities. Overall, positives materially outweigh the disclosed negatives, though execution risks and FX will require monitoring.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and GAAP Profitability
Fourth quarter revenue of $99.3M (record quarter) and first-ever quarter of GAAP profitability; full-year revenue of $344.6M, up 65% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
FX Headwinds Compressing Margins
Approximate 400 basis point headwind to adjusted EBITDA margin (quantified as ≈$14M) driven primarily by appreciation of the Israeli shekel versus the U.S. dollar; management expects this to materially affect 2026 margin comparisons.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and GAAP Profitability
Fourth quarter revenue of $99.3M (record quarter) and first-ever quarter of GAAP profitability; full-year revenue of $344.6M, up 65% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Riskified guided 2026 revenue of $372–$384M (midpoint $378M, +8–11% YoY, 10% at midpoint), targeting full‑year non‑GAAP gross profit growth of 7–12% (quarters ~10% growth at the midpoint), adjusted EBITDA of $26–$34M (midpoint $30M, ≈8% margin) which reflects an approximate 400 bps FX headwind (~$14M), and free cash flow of ~ $40M (≥20% increase vs. $33.1M in 2025; ~10% FCF yield on current EV); they expect similar net dollar retention to 2025 (~105%) at the midpoint, quarterly seasonality to mirror 2025 with sequential acceleration through the year, quarterly operating expenses of ~$41–42M (H1) and ~$42–43M (H2), share‑based compensation ~ $40M, and the board authorized an additional $75M buyback (≈$84M total remaining authorization).Riskified Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 344.64M | 327.52M | 297.61M | 261.25M | 229.14M |
| Gross Profit | 175.98M | 170.94M | 152.52M | 135.10M | 122.97M |
| EBITDA | -13.46M | -42.97M | -71.75M | -105.74M | -53.95M |
| Net Income | -27.57M | -34.92M | -59.03M | -104.70M | -179.43M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 410.57M | 495.86M | 601.93M | 606.98M | 600.63M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 297.58M | 376.06M | 474.81M | 475.67M | 503.27M |
| Total Debt | 25.02M | 27.53M | 31.31M | 37.42M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 115.81M | 113.56M | 110.21M | 112.55M | 71.77M |
| Stockholders Equity | 294.76M | 382.30M | 491.72M | 494.44M | 528.86M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 33.07M | 39.06M | 5.92M | -34.26M | -33.78M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 33.88M | 39.70M | 7.28M | -26.25M | -20.28M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -132.85M | 27.75M | 251.56M | -210.01M | -84.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -110.66M | -136.82M | -9.31M | 3.85M | 423.19M |
Riskified Technical Analysis
Negative
4.41
Price Trends
4.38
Negative
4.62
Negative
4.75
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.14
Positive
29.73
Positive
9.47
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RSKD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.27, above the 50-day MA of 4.38, and below the 200-day MA of 4.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.73 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.47 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RSKD.
Riskified Risk Analysis
Riskified disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Riskified reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Riskified Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $681.04M | 8.21 | 19.72% | ― | 22.97% | 49.49% | |
70 Outperform | $642.69M | 10.53 | 73.23% | ― | 9.63% | -112.71% | |
69 Neutral | $662.57M | 17.45 | 8.24% | ― | 3.62% | -20.45% | |
64 Neutral | $561.70M | -28.39 | -8.42% | ― | 6.54% | -19.17% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
59 Neutral | $329.81M | -15.25 | -22.88% | ― | 13.09% | 32.34% | |
57 Neutral | $418.01M | -0.53 | -106.91% | ― | -7.43% | 61.36% |
* Technology Sector Average
RSKD
Riskified
3.79
-0.83
-17.97%
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5.53
-16.46
-74.85%
OPFI
OppFi
7.55
-1.75
-18.82%
DSP
Viant Technology
10.75
-1.66
-13.38%
BMBL
Bumble
3.22
-1.12
-25.81%
VTEX
VTEX
3.83
-1.24
-24.46%
Riskified Corporate Events
Riskified Refreshes Board, Adds Fintech Veteran Samer Haj-Yehia as Independent Director
Mar 23, 2026
Riskified announced changes to its board of directors in March 2026, marking a significant refresh of its governance as it scales its AI-powered ecommerce risk platform. On March 17, 2026, longtime director and Nominating and Corporate Governance ...
Riskified to Repurchase 1 Million Shares in Discounted Deal With Pitango
Mar 13, 2026
On March 13, 2026, Riskified Ltd. agreed to a privately negotiated transaction to repurchase 1,000,000 of its Class A ordinary shares from funds affiliated with Pitango Venture Capital for $4.26 per share, or about $4.3 million in total. The price...
Riskified Posts Record Q4 2025, Achieves GAAP Profitability and Expands Share Buyback
Mar 4, 2026
Riskified reported on March 4, 2026 that it closed 2025 with record quarterly gross profit, its first quarter of GAAP profitability and a record year for adjusted EBITDA, as revenue, margins and operating cash flow all improved. The company highli...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.