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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX)
:VRTX

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) AI Stock Analysis

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals

(NASDAQ:VRTX)

Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$453.00
▲( 4.06% Upside)
Vertex Pharmaceuticals' strong revenue growth and product launches are positive, but the score is impacted by short-term profitability issues, weak technical indicators, and valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio. Confidence in future growth, supported by a solid balance sheet and strategic initiatives like the stock buyback, provides some balance.
Positive Factors
Pipeline Expansion
Recent updates in VX-548 and VX-147 have been encouraging, reinforcing confidence in other earlier-staged pipeline prospects.
Product Launch
Vertex management is actively working to ensure a successful product launch by securing broad coverage and strong physician awareness.
Negative Factors
Revenue Impact
Vertex reported results with revenue impacted by intellectual property violations in Russia, which had an estimated $100M impact on revenue.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, a biotechnology company, engages in developing and commercializing therapies for treating cystic fibrosis. The company markets SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI, ORKAMBI, and KALYDECO to treat patients with cystic fibrosis who have specific mutations in their cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene; and TRIKAFTA for the treatment of patients with CF 6 years of age or older who have at least one F508del mutation. Its pipeline includes VX-864 for the treatment of AAT deficiency, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial; VX-147 for the treatment of APOL1-mediated focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, or FSGS, and other serious kidney diseases which is in Phase 2 clinical trial; VX- 880, treatment for Type 1 Diabetes which is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial; VX-548, a NaV1.8 inhibitor for treatments of acute, neuropathic, musculoskeletal pain which is in Phase 2 clinical trial; and CTX001 for the treatment severe SCD and TDT which is in Phase 3 clinical trial. The company sells its products primarily to specialty pharmacy and specialty distributors in the United States, as well as specialty distributors and retail chains, and hospitals and clinics internationally. It has collaborations with Affinia Therapeutics, Inc.; Arbor Biotechnologies, Inc.; CRISPR Therapeutics AG.; Kymera Therapeutics, Inc.; Mammoth Biosciences, Inc.; Moderna, Inc.; Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc.; and Skyhawk Therapeutics, Inc.; as well as Ribometrix, Inc.; Genomics plc; Merck KGaA; Darmstadt, Germany, and X-Chem, Inc. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneyVertex Pharmaceuticals generates revenue mainly through the sale of its cystic fibrosis medications, which are its flagship products. The company's CF drugs, such as Trikafta, Symdeko, Orkambi, and Kalydeco, are approved in multiple countries, including the United States and the European Union, and are prescribed to a broad patient population. These drugs address different mutations of the CF gene, expanding the number of patients who can benefit from treatment. Besides direct sales, Vertex also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations to advance its research and development pipeline. The company invests significantly in R&D to discover and develop new treatments for other diseases, which can potentially lead to new revenue streams in the future. Revenue from licensing agreements and milestone payments from partners also contribute to its earnings, though the majority of its income is derived from its commercialized CF therapies.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue from different business units, shedding light on which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus areas.
Chart InsightsVertex Pharmaceuticals' revenue from Trikafta and Kaftrio continues to drive growth, with a notable increase in 2024. However, legacy products like Kalydeco, Orkambi, and Symdeko have been phased out, reflecting a strategic shift towards newer therapies. The recent earnings call highlights the successful launch of ALYFTREK and JOURNAVX, expected to further boost revenue. Despite challenges with ex-U.S. revenue and increased expenses, Vertex's robust pipeline and raised revenue guidance underscore confidence in sustained growth, supported by significant R&D investments and a strong financial position.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Vertex Pharmaceuticals has shown strong revenue growth but faces challenges in profitability and cash flow. The balance sheet remains robust with low leverage, but the recent financial period's negative profitability and cash flow issues are concerns.
Income Statement
63
Positive
Vertex Pharmaceuticals has shown remarkable revenue growth over the years, with a significant increase from 2019 to 2023. However, the most recent year saw a decline in profitability with a negative EBIT and net income, leading to negative profit margins. This indicates potential operational challenges or increased expenses impacting the bottom line.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet remains robust with a strong equity base and a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating financial stability and low leverage. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting sound asset financing through shareholders’ equity. However, the recent increase in liabilities should be monitored for any potential risks.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Vertex Pharmaceuticals experienced a significant downturn in free cash flow and operating cash flow in the latest year, resulting in negative cash flow figures. This could be a concern if it continues, although historically, the company has maintained strong cash flow generation. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is negative, reflecting recent profitability challenges.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
11.02B9.87B8.93B7.57B6.21B
Gross Profit
9.49B8.61B7.85B6.67B5.47B
EBIT
-232.90M4.31B4.31B2.78B2.86B
EBITDA
484.90M4.61B4.44B2.92B3.28B
Net Income Common Stockholders
-535.60M3.62B3.32B2.34B2.71B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
6.12B11.22B10.78B7.52B6.66B
Total Assets
22.53B22.73B18.15B13.43B11.75B
Total Debt
1.75B808.40M561.00M556.70M581.48M
Net Debt
-2.82B-9.56B-9.94B-6.24B-5.41B
Total Liabilities
6.12B5.15B4.24B3.33B3.06B
Stockholders Equity
16.41B17.58B13.91B10.10B8.69B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-790.30M3.28B3.93B2.41B2.99B
Operating Cash Flow
-492.60M3.54B4.13B2.64B3.25B
Investing Cash Flow
-3.77B-3.14B-321.10M-340.90M99.39M
Financing Cash Flow
-1.49B-562.20M-67.70M-1.48B-505.28M

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price435.32
Price Trends
50DMA
480.56
Negative
100DMA
465.53
Negative
200DMA
468.01
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-14.00
Positive
RSI
39.12
Neutral
STOCH
77.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VRTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 435.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 461.21, below the 50-day MA of 480.56, and below the 200-day MA of 468.01, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -14.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VRTX.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis

Vertex Pharmaceuticals disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vertex Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
We may face manufacturing, supply, and distribution difficulties, among other challenges, delays, or interruptions, including at our third-party providers. Q4, 2024
2.
We rely on third parties to carry out our operations. Failure to maintain our third-party relationships or challenges at or with these third parties could materially harm our business. Q4, 2024

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$11.49B21.709.64%17.99%152.10%
75
Outperform
$64.41B15.1815.96%0.14%7.52%15.65%
69
Neutral
$35.56B42.1117.33%78.01%
62
Neutral
$38.03B-414.62%17.21%21.16%
58
Neutral
$114.83B-5.64%8.55%-124.45%
55
Neutral
$24.45B-3.87%0.58%-764.64%
53
Neutral
$5.24B3.07-43.58%2.80%16.87%-0.11%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
435.32
-15.48
-3.43%
ALNY
Alnylam Pharma
292.58
143.20
95.86%
BMRN
BioMarin Pharmaceutical
58.48
-17.42
-22.95%
REGN
Regeneron
604.62
-373.25
-38.17%
ARGX
Argenx Se
584.95
223.93
62.03%
BNTX
BioNTech SE
99.09
0.09
0.09%

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -12.97%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Vertex Pharmaceuticals demonstrated strong revenue growth and successful product launches in the U.S., but faced challenges with ex-U.S. revenue decline and increased operating expenses. The pipeline is advancing well with multiple programs in pivotal development, although the temporary pause in the VX-522 study represents a setback. Financial guidance for the year was raised, reflecting confidence in continued growth.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Vertex Pharmaceuticals reported $2.77 billion in revenue for Q1 2025, representing a 3% growth compared to Q1 2024. U.S. revenue grew by 9% year-over-year.
Product Launches and Approvals
Successful early launches of ALYFTREK and JOURNAVX, with positive feedback from patients and physicians. ALYFTREK approved in the U.S., U.K., and EU, with further approvals expected in Canada, Australia, and Switzerland.
Pipeline Advancements
Four programs in pivotal development are progressing, including Suzetrigine in diabetic peripheral neuropathy and Zimislecel in type 1 diabetes. Enrollment for several programs is on track to complete this year.
R&D and Commercial Expansion
Significant R&D progress with five programs in Phase III and ongoing diversification of the commercial portfolio.
CASGEVY Uptake
Approximately 90 patients have begun the treatment process with CASGEVY, and more than 65 authorized treatment centers have been established globally.
Financial Position
Vertex ended the quarter with $11.4 billion in cash and investments, and increased total revenue guidance for 2025 to $11.85 billion to $12 billion.
Negative Updates
Ex-U.S. Revenue Decline
Ex-U.S. revenue declined by 5% year-over-year, impacted by the availability of an illegal copy product in Russia. The revenue decline in Russia affected total revenue growth.
Temporary Pause in VX-522 Study
A temporary pause was implemented in the Phase I/II study of VX-522 due to a tolerability issue, impacting the program's progress.
Increased Operating Expenses
First quarter 2025 combined non-GAAP R&D, Acquired IPR&D, and SG&A expenses increased by 21% compared to the first quarter of 2024, impacting operating income.
Company Guidance
During the Vertex Pharmaceuticals First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported solid financial performance and shared guidance for the year. Vertex achieved $2.77 billion in revenue for the first quarter, marking a 3% increase compared to Q1 2024. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $11.85 billion to $12 billion, reflecting an approximate 8% growth at the midpoint. Vertex highlighted the successful U.S. launches of its cystic fibrosis medication, ALYFTREK, and the non-opioid pain treatment, JOURNAVX, which are expected to drive future revenue growth. They also reported progress on their gene-edited therapy, CASGEVY, for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia, with 90 patients having their first cell collections. Vertex is focused on advancing its pipeline, with pivotal development programs in diabetic peripheral neuropathy, type 1 diabetes, APOL-1 mediated kidney disease, and IgA nephropathy. The company continues to invest in R&D and commercial capabilities while maintaining a robust financial position with $11.4 billion in cash and investments.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events

Stock Buyback
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Launches $4 Billion Stock Buyback
Positive
May 19, 2025

Vertex Pharmaceuticals has announced a new stock repurchase program, authorizing up to $4.0 billion in buybacks without an expiration date. This initiative, combined with the existing 2023 program, allows the company to repurchase up to $4.775 billion in total, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (VRTX) stock is a Sell with a $325.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vertex Pharmaceuticals stock, see the VRTX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
May 14, 2025

On May 14, 2025, Vertex Pharmaceuticals held its annual shareholder meeting where several key decisions were made. The shareholders elected a new board of directors, ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and approved the 2024 executive compensation program. However, a proposal concerning excessive golden parachutes was not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (VRTX) stock is a Sell with a $325.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vertex Pharmaceuticals stock, see the VRTX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.