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Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
NASDAQ:VRTX

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) AI Stock Analysis

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals

(NASDAQ:VRTX)

Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$453.00
▼(-1.53%Downside)
Vertex Pharmaceuticals' strong revenue growth and product launches are positive, but the score is impacted by short-term profitability issues, weak technical indicators, and valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio. Confidence in future growth, supported by a solid balance sheet and strategic initiatives like the stock buyback, provides some balance.
Positive Factors
Market Expansion
The launch of Alyftrek in cystic fibrosis is expected to see a majority of patients, particularly those who were previously ineligible, switch to this new treatment.
Pipeline Expansion
Povetacicept in IgAN is being considered for accelerated approval, representing an important development in their product pipeline.
Product Development
Nine of the 12 treated patients were off insulin completely and maintaining normal blood sugar, and two others had reduced insulin or were in the process of stopping.
Negative Factors
Prescription Trends
NRx saw a 10% decrease, attributed to the holiday week's impact on script trends.
Regulatory Challenges
There is a requirement for chronic immunosuppression, which makes the uptake assumptions conservative.
Sales Performance
TRx decreased by 9% due to the long weekend, indicating a temporary softness in the script data.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) is a global biotechnology company that discovers, develops, and commercializes innovative therapies for serious diseases. Founded in 1989 and headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, Vertex is renowned for its ground-breaking work in the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF). The company's core products include a portfolio of CF therapies, with medicines such as Trikafta, Symdeko, Orkambi, and Kalydeco, which have transformed the treatment landscape for CF patients worldwide. Vertex also invests in research and development to expand its pipeline into other areas such as pain, sickle cell disease, beta-thalassemia, and more.
How the Company Makes MoneyVertex Pharmaceuticals generates revenue primarily through the sale of its cystic fibrosis (CF) medications. The company earns money by commercializing its approved drugs, which are predominantly sold in the United States, Europe, and other international markets. Trikafta, Vertex's flagship CF therapy, is the largest contributor to its revenue, given its efficacy and broad applicability to a large segment of the CF population. Additionally, Vertex invests heavily in research and development to expand its drug pipeline, which may lead to future revenue streams through new product launches. Strategic partnerships and collaborations also play a role in Vertex's financial performance, allowing the company to leverage external expertise and resources to enhance its product offerings and market reach.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business units or product lines, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus.
Chart InsightsVertex Pharmaceuticals' revenue from Trikafta and Kaftrio continues to surge, driven by strong U.S. market performance and new product launches like ALYFTREK and JOURNAVX. However, older products like Kalydeco, Orkambi, and Symdeko have been phased out, reflecting a strategic shift towards newer therapies. Despite challenges such as ex-U.S. revenue decline and increased operating expenses, Vertex's raised revenue guidance and robust pipeline, including advancements in gene-edited therapies, signal confidence in sustained growth and innovation.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -8.02%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Vertex Pharmaceuticals demonstrated strong revenue growth and successful product launches in the U.S., but faced challenges with ex-U.S. revenue decline and increased operating expenses. The pipeline is advancing well with multiple programs in pivotal development, although the temporary pause in the VX-522 study represents a setback. Financial guidance for the year was raised, reflecting confidence in continued growth.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Vertex Pharmaceuticals reported $2.77 billion in revenue for Q1 2025, representing a 3% growth compared to Q1 2024. U.S. revenue grew by 9% year-over-year.
Product Launches and Approvals
Successful early launches of ALYFTREK and JOURNAVX, with positive feedback from patients and physicians. ALYFTREK approved in the U.S., U.K., and EU, with further approvals expected in Canada, Australia, and Switzerland.
Pipeline Advancements
Four programs in pivotal development are progressing, including Suzetrigine in diabetic peripheral neuropathy and Zimislecel in type 1 diabetes. Enrollment for several programs is on track to complete this year.
R&D and Commercial Expansion
Significant R&D progress with five programs in Phase III and ongoing diversification of the commercial portfolio.
CASGEVY Uptake
Approximately 90 patients have begun the treatment process with CASGEVY, and more than 65 authorized treatment centers have been established globally.
Financial Position
Vertex ended the quarter with $11.4 billion in cash and investments, and increased total revenue guidance for 2025 to $11.85 billion to $12 billion.
Negative Updates
Ex-U.S. Revenue Decline
Ex-U.S. revenue declined by 5% year-over-year, impacted by the availability of an illegal copy product in Russia. The revenue decline in Russia affected total revenue growth.
Temporary Pause in VX-522 Study
A temporary pause was implemented in the Phase I/II study of VX-522 due to a tolerability issue, impacting the program's progress.
Increased Operating Expenses
First quarter 2025 combined non-GAAP R&D, Acquired IPR&D, and SG&A expenses increased by 21% compared to the first quarter of 2024, impacting operating income.
Company Guidance
During the Vertex Pharmaceuticals First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported solid financial performance and shared guidance for the year. Vertex achieved $2.77 billion in revenue for the first quarter, marking a 3% increase compared to Q1 2024. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $11.85 billion to $12 billion, reflecting an approximate 8% growth at the midpoint. Vertex highlighted the successful U.S. launches of its cystic fibrosis medication, ALYFTREK, and the non-opioid pain treatment, JOURNAVX, which are expected to drive future revenue growth. They also reported progress on their gene-edited therapy, CASGEVY, for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia, with 90 patients having their first cell collections. Vertex is focused on advancing its pipeline, with pivotal development programs in diabetic peripheral neuropathy, type 1 diabetes, APOL-1 mediated kidney disease, and IgA nephropathy. The company continues to invest in R&D and commercial capabilities while maintaining a robust financial position with $11.4 billion in cash and investments.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Vertex Pharmaceuticals exhibits strong historical revenue growth and a solid balance sheet, but faces short-term profitability and cash flow challenges due to decreased operational performance in the TTM period. The healthy equity position provides some financial stability, although the recent increase in total debt and negative cash flow are concerning.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
The company's income statement reflects strong historical revenue growth, with a notable increase from 2021 to 2023. However, the TTM period shows a significant decline in EBIT and EBITDA, resulting in negative margins and net income, which raises concerns about profitability. Despite the challenges in the TTM period, the company has demonstrated resilience in revenue growth over the years.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Vertex Pharmaceuticals exhibits a strong balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating prudent financial management. The equity ratio remains healthy, and the substantial stockholders' equity suggests financial stability. However, the increase in total debt in the latest period warrants monitoring, despite the overall positive equity position.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows volatility, with a significant decline in free cash flow in the TTM period. Although previous years demonstrated positive operating cash flow and free cash flow, the current period reflects negative values, impacting the cash flow to net income ratios. This suggests operational challenges in generating cash, which could affect short-term liquidity.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
11.10B11.02B9.87B8.93B7.57B6.21B
Gross Profit
9.55B9.49B8.61B7.85B6.67B5.47B
EBIT
-742.30M-232.90M3.83B4.31B2.78B2.86B
EBITDA
-76.30M486.30M4.61B4.44B2.92B3.28B
Net Income Common Stockholders
-988.90M-535.60M3.62B3.32B2.34B2.71B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
6.20B6.12B11.22B10.78B7.52B6.66B
Total Assets
22.88B22.53B22.73B18.15B13.43B11.75B
Total Debt
1.65B1.75B808.40M899.70M967.40M931.90M
Net Debt
1.65B-2.82B-9.56B-9.60B-5.83B-5.06B
Total Liabilities
6.38B6.12B5.15B4.24B3.33B3.06B
Stockholders Equity
16.50B16.41B17.58B13.91B10.10B8.69B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-1.26B-790.30M3.28B3.93B2.41B2.99B
Operating Cash Flow
-980.30M-492.60M3.54B4.13B2.64B3.25B
Investing Cash Flow
-1.69B-3.77B-3.14B-321.10M-340.90M99.39M
Financing Cash Flow
-1.82B-1.49B-562.20M-67.70M-1.48B-505.28M

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price460.06
Price Trends
50DMA
463.59
Negative
100DMA
470.91
Negative
200DMA
465.84
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.04
Negative
RSI
56.09
Neutral
STOCH
80.56
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VRTX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 460.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 444.44, below the 50-day MA of 463.59, and below the 200-day MA of 465.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.56 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VRTX.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis

Vertex Pharmaceuticals disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vertex Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$10.96B21.259.64%17.99%152.10%
70
Outperform
$35.73B41.3917.33%78.01%
67
Neutral
$56.52B13.3315.96%0.68%7.52%15.65%
64
Neutral
$39.44B-414.62%17.21%21.16%
61
Neutral
$25.35B-3.87%0.58%-764.64%
58
Neutral
$115.95B-5.64%8.55%-124.45%
54
Neutral
$5.38B3.31-45.11%3.29%16.82%0.04%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
460.06
-20.67
-4.30%
ALNY
Alnylam Pharma
304.67
144.28
89.96%
BMRN
BioMarin Pharmaceutical
57.28
-26.23
-31.41%
REGN
Regeneron
521.84
-511.82
-49.52%
ARGX
Argenx Se
586.76
199.76
51.62%
BNTX
BioNTech SE
104.92
12.84
13.94%

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events

Stock Buyback
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Launches $4 Billion Stock Buyback
Positive
May 19, 2025

Vertex Pharmaceuticals has announced a new stock repurchase program, authorizing up to $4.0 billion in buybacks without an expiration date. This initiative, combined with the existing 2023 program, allows the company to repurchase up to $4.775 billion in total, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (VRTX) stock is a Sell with a $325.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vertex Pharmaceuticals stock, see the VRTX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
May 14, 2025

On May 14, 2025, Vertex Pharmaceuticals held its annual shareholder meeting where several key decisions were made. The shareholders elected a new board of directors, ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and approved the 2024 executive compensation program. However, a proposal concerning excessive golden parachutes was not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (VRTX) stock is a Sell with a $325.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vertex Pharmaceuticals stock, see the VRTX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.