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Valneva
(NASDAQ:VALN)
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Rating:41Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▲(0.81% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, persistent cash burn, and rising leverage) and bearish technical trend signals. Earnings-call commentary adds near-term pressure from a guidance cut and margin/COGS issues, partially offset by pipeline/regulatory upside (Lyme) and planned cost reductions; valuation provides limited support due to negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Late‑stage Lyme vaccine efficacy
A Phase III efficacy result above 70% with no safety concerns and planned regulatory submissions is a structural upside. If approved, LB6V could create a meaningful new revenue stream, validate Valneva's R&D platform, and leverage Pfizer's commercial scale to accelerate market access and long‑term franchise value.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow signals the business cannot self‑fund growth or remediation. That structural cash burn increases dependence on capital markets, risks dilution, constrains investment in commercialization and manufacturing upgrades, and limits strategic optionality over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Late‑stage Lyme vaccine efficacy
A Phase III efficacy result above 70% with no safety concerns and planned regulatory submissions is a structural upside. If approved, LB6V could create a meaningful new revenue stream, validate Valneva's R&D platform, and leverage Pfizer's commercial scale to accelerate market access and long‑term franchise value.
Read all positive factors
Valneva (VALN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$469.79M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)24.31K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth-9.42%
EPS Growth-67.60%
CountryUS
Employees674
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.63
Shares Outstanding94,885,620
10 Day Avg. Volume34,190
30 Day Avg. Volume24,306
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)5.95
Price to Sales (P/S)3.61
P/FCF Ratio-11.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.50Price Target Upside192.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$176.81M
Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valneva SE operates as a specialized biopharmaceutical company, concentrating its efforts on developing and bringing to market preventative vaccines for infectious diseases where current medical options are insufficient. Its portfolio of commercia...
How the Company Makes Money
Valneva makes money primarily through (1) product sales of its commercial vaccines and (2) collaboration/partnering revenue tied to vaccine development and supply arrangements. Product revenue is generated by selling marketed vaccines to customers...
Valneva Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: strong R&D and clinical achievements (notably a clinically meaningful Lyme Phase III efficacy result with planned regulatory submissions, progress on Chikungunya and Shigella, and a solid cash buffer) are offset by pronounced near-term financial weakness (sharp revenue declines, margin compression, higher COGS from manufacturing transfer, widened net loss), a guidance downgrade tied to travel headwinds, and ongoing manufacturing/regulatory remediation at the Almeida site. Management is pursuing aggressive cost reductions and is positioning for a potential transformative regulatory outcome for Lyme, but near-term operational and financial challenges remain significant.Positive Updates
Lyme Phase III efficacy and regulatory path
Phase III readout showed clinically meaningful efficacy (overall efficacy above 70%); first prespecified statistical criterion not met but the second prespecified analysis met the lower bound (95% CI lower bound >20). Vaccine was well tolerated with no safety concerns; Pfizer is planning submissions to regulatory authorities.
Negative Updates
Significant revenue decline (Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025)
Total revenues fell to EUR 30.9 million from EUR 49.2 million, a decline of approximately -37.2%; product sales were EUR 30.5 million versus EUR 48.6 million, down ~-37.3% year-over-year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Lyme Phase III efficacy and regulatory path
Phase III readout showed clinically meaningful efficacy (overall efficacy above 70%); first prespecified statistical criterion not met but the second prespecified analysis met the lower bound (95% CI lower bound >20). Vaccine was well tolerated with no safety concerns; Pfizer is planning submissions to regulatory authorities.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Valneva updated FY‑2026 guidance, lowering product sales to €135–150m and total revenues to €145–160m due to weaker travel‑vaccine uptake, and announced a restructuring to reduce global headcount by 10–15% and cut operating expenses by 25–35% versus 2025, while expecting gross margins to normalize after Q1 one‑offs. Q1 results: total revenues €30.9m (product sales €30.5m) with IXIARO €20.2m, DUKORAL €8.6m, IXCHIQ €1.6m and third‑party €0.1m; cost of goods €26.2m (commercial gross margin excl. IXCHIQ 45.2%; IXIARO Q1 gross margin 50.8% vs FY‑2025 IXIARO 59.6%); R&D €15.2m, marketing & distribution €7.0m, G&A €8.2m; operating loss €23.7m, net loss €32.1m and net finance/tax expense €8.4m. Cash at March 31 was €105m (excludes April reserved‑offering proceeds).Valneva Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
32
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 156.33M | 174.66M | 169.58M | 153.71M | 361.30M | 348.08M |
| Gross Profit | 46.05M | 67.52M | 71.04M | 52.84M | 36.86M | 160.16M |
| EBITDA | -77.60M | -50.47M | 32.08M | -57.72M | -104.72M | -38.73M |
| Net Income | -138.03M | -115.19M | -12.25M | -101.43M | -143.28M | -73.42M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 372.40M | 398.84M | 500.03M | 460.06M | 621.34M | 817.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 105.37M | 109.65M | 168.27M | 126.08M | 289.43M | 346.64M |
| Total Debt | 209.72M | 207.25M | 216.31M | 208.82M | 152.38M | 114.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 295.31M | 292.67M | 318.78M | 331.81M | 401.55M | 646.77M |
| Stockholders Equity | 76.78M | 106.17M | 181.25M | 128.25M | 219.80M | 170.58M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -70.92M | -57.38M | -83.66M | -217.06M | -274.67M | -16.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -67.49M | -52.89M | -67.22M | -202.74M | -245.34M | 76.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.77M | -1.71M | 76.92M | -20.59M | -29.05M | -93.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 33.89M | -621.00K | 30.68M | 63.08M | 215.12M | 154.50M |
Valneva Technical Analysis
Neutral
4.96
Price Trends
5.28
Negative
5.82
Negative
7.67
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Negative
52.40
Neutral
75.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VALN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.03, below the 50-day MA of 5.28, and below the 200-day MA of 7.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VALN.
Valneva Risk Analysis
Valneva disclosed 86 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Valneva reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Successful commercialization of our products depends on numerous factors, some of which may be outside of our control. Q4, 2023
Valneva Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $857.31M | 5.21 | 129.32% | ― | 2889.93% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $1.86B | -13.91 | 121.52% | ― | 52.92% | 13.32% | |
55 Neutral | $1.87B | -15.31 | -56.07% | ― | 3.42% | -11.04% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $1.04B | -2.00 | 1870.38% | ― | -50.80% | 14.80% | |
47 Neutral | $871.05M | -3.37 | -161.87% | ― | ― | -6.15% | |
41 Neutral | $469.79M | -2.65 | -106.22% | ― | -9.42% | -67.60% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
VALN
Valneva
5.18
-3.07
-37.21%
ABUS
Arbutus Biopharma
4.54
1.14
33.53%
URGN
Urogen Pharma
45.60
27.01
145.29%
IVA
Inventiva
4.66
1.02
28.02%
TSHA
Taysha Gene Therapies
6.34
3.53
125.62%
SANA
Sana Biotechnology
3.41
0.44
14.81%
Valneva Corporate Events
Valneva Shareholders Back All AGM Resolutions as Board Elects New Chair
Jun 25, 2026
Valneva SE, a France-based specialty vaccine maker listed on Nasdaq and Euronext Paris, focuses on targeted prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases, using its commercial travel-vaccine portfolio to support late-stage candidates such as the o...
Valneva Publishes Documentation for June 25, 2026 Annual General Meeting
Jun 5, 2026
On June 4, 2026, Valneva SE announced that documentation for its Annual General Meeting, scheduled for June 25, 2026 in Lyon, is now available to shareholders. The materials include the agenda, draft resolutions and participation and voting instru...
Valneva Ramps Up June 2026 Investor and Medical Conference Presence
Jun 1, 2026
On May 28, 2026, France‑based Valneva SE said its senior management would present and hold investor meetings at several healthcare and SMID‑cap conferences in the U.S. and Europe during June 2026, including the Jefferies Global Healthc...
Valneva Tightens 2026 Guidance and Restructures as Lyme Vaccine Nears Regulatory Filings
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Valneva reported first-quarter 2026 revenues of €30.9 million, including €30.5 million in product sales, down from a year earlier as the company winds down third-party product distribution and faced shipment phasing ef...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.