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Valneva (VALN)
NASDAQ:VALN

Valneva (VALN) AI Stock Analysis

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VALN

Valneva

(NASDAQ:VALN)

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Neutral 48 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▲(7.71% Upside)
Valneva's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including negative profitability and cash flow issues. While technical indicators show neutral momentum, and the earnings call highlighted some positive developments, the company's high leverage and ongoing losses weigh heavily on the score. Promising clinical advancements provide potential for future growth but are not enough to offset current financial concerns.

Valneva (VALN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionValneva SE is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing innovative vaccines for infectious diseases. Headquartered in Lyon, France, Valneva operates in the pharmaceutical sector, with a particular emphasis on vaccine development for diseases such as Lyme disease, COVID-19, and chikungunya. The company's core products include its proprietary inactivated vaccine for Japanese encephalitis and a COVID-19 vaccine candidate, among others. Valneva's mission is to address unmet medical needs by leveraging its expertise in vaccine technology.
How the Company Makes MoneyValneva generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its vaccine products. The company's revenue streams include sales from licensed vaccines, government contracts, and partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies for research and development. Valneva has entered into significant collaborations, such as its partnership with the British government for the development of its COVID-19 vaccine, which provides funding and potential revenue from future vaccine sales. Additionally, Valneva may receive milestone payments and royalties from its collaborations, further contributing to its earnings. The company also seeks to expand its market presence through strategic partnerships that enhance its product pipeline and distribution capabilities.

Valneva Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 20, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The company showed positive developments in revenue growth and cash management, along with promising clinical advancements. However, challenges remain with IXCHIQ sales suspension, DUKORAL sales decline, and operating losses.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenues reached EUR 127 million, marking a growth of almost 9% despite geopolitical and IXCHIQ-specific challenges.
Operating Cash Burn Reduction
Significant reduction in operating cash burn, resulting in a cash position of more than EUR 140 million.
Debt Refinancing Success
Successfully completed debt refinancing, enhancing financial flexibility with Pharmakon as a new partner.
IXIARO Sales Increase
IXIARO sales reached EUR 74.3 million, a 12.5% increase driven by sales to the U.S. Department of Defense and increased sales in Europe.
Positive Clinical Data
Reported positive safety and immunogenicity data for the Lyme vaccine candidate and positive Phase I results for the Zika vaccine candidate.
Negative Updates
IXCHIQ Sales Impact
IXCHIQ sales were significantly impacted due to the temporary restriction and U.S. license suspension, leading to an adjustment of sales guidance.
DUKORAL Sales Decline
DUKORAL sales decreased from EUR 22.3 million to EUR 21.5 million, impacted by foreign currency fluctuations and transition to a new distributor in Germany.
Third-Party Product Sales Decrease
Third-party products sales decreased by 28.5% year-over-year to EUR 16.1 million due to the anticipated discontinuation of certain distribution agreements.
Operating Loss
Reported an operating loss of EUR 53.9 million compared to a profit last year, impacted by the absence of the prior year's Priority Review Voucher sale.
Company Guidance
In the recent conference call, Valneva provided guidance on its financial performance and strategic direction for the remainder of 2025 and beyond. The company reported total revenues of EUR 127 million for the first nine months of 2025, marking an increase of nearly 9% from the previous year, despite geopolitical and product-specific challenges. Product sales reached EUR 119.4 million, with IXIARO sales growing 12.5% to EUR 74.3 million, driven by demand from the U.S. Department of Defense and European markets. However, DUKORAL sales slightly decreased to EUR 21.5 million, impacted by currency fluctuations and a distributor transition in Germany. IXCHIQ sales saw a notable increase to EUR 7.6 million, despite a temporary U.S. license suspension affecting travel segment sales. Valneva's cash reserves stood at EUR 143.5 million as of September 30, 2025, bolstered by EUR 26 million from ATM transactions. The company maintained its full-year guidance, projecting product sales between EUR 155 million and EUR 170 million, and total revenues ranging from EUR 165 million to EUR 180 million. Looking ahead, Valneva emphasized the significant potential of its Lyme disease vaccine, VLA15, which is on track for regulatory submissions in 2026 and anticipated market launch in late 2027, positioning it as a key growth driver for sustained profitability.

Valneva Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Cash Flow
38
Negative
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Valneva Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price8.82
Price Trends
50DMA
9.05
Negative
100DMA
9.47
Negative
200DMA
7.99
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.22
Positive
RSI
42.36
Neutral
STOCH
25.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VALN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.70, below the 50-day MA of 9.05, and above the 200-day MA of 7.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VALN.

Valneva Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$1.61B-16.11-64.93%-36.36%-945.72%
50
Neutral
$1.10B-6.768.00%-10.15%
49
Neutral
$907.77M-21.10-45.88%116.64%47.93%
48
Neutral
$746.84M-6.10-54.42%14.86%-1440.45%
44
Neutral
$851.21M-1.07-12.52%-82.84%
33
Underperform
$1.22B-4.67-96.11%31.16%
* Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VALN
Valneva
8.36
4.16
99.05%
ABUS
Arbutus Biopharma
4.68
1.49
46.71%
URGN
Urogen Pharma
23.40
12.36
111.96%
IVA
Inventiva
4.38
2.14
95.54%
TSHA
Taysha Gene Therapies
5.71
3.85
206.99%
SANA
Sana Biotechnology
4.53
2.83
166.47%

Valneva Corporate Events

Valneva Announces Strategic Consolidation of French Operations
Nov 28, 2025

On November 26, 2025, Valneva SE announced a strategic initiative to consolidate its operations in France, focusing its activities at the Lyon site and closing its Nantes location to streamline operations and improve efficiency. This move is part of Valneva’s efforts to enhance operational effectiveness and position itself for long-term success. The consolidation will also centralize all R&D activities in Vienna. The company is committed to supporting its employees during this transition, ensuring a smooth process for all affected team members.

Valneva Reports Nine-Month 2025 Financial Results and Updates on Vaccine Developments
Nov 26, 2025

On November 26, 2025, Valneva SE announced its financial results for the first nine months of 2025, reporting total revenues of €127.0 million, an 8.9% increase from the previous year. Despite a net loss of €65.2 million, the company achieved significant financial flexibility through successful debt refinancing and reduced operating cash burn. Valneva’s Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15, is progressing well in its Phase 3 study, with results expected in 2026. The company also highlighted the growth in sales of its Japanese encephalitis vaccine and the launch of its chikungunya vaccine, IXCHIQ®, despite regulatory challenges in the U.S.

Valneva Reports Increased Revenues and Strategic Advances in Vaccine Development
Nov 20, 2025

On November 20, 2025, Valneva SE reported its financial results for the first nine months of 2025, highlighting an 8.9% increase in total revenues to €127.0 million compared to the same period in 2024. The company achieved significant financial flexibility through successful debt refinancing and reduced operating cash burn. Despite a net loss of €65.2 million, Valneva’s commercial portfolio showed growth, particularly in its Japanese encephalitis vaccine sales. The company is advancing its Lyme disease vaccine candidate with Pfizer, expecting Phase 3 results in 2026, and is also progressing with its Shigella vaccine candidate, which received Fast Track designation from the FDA.

Valneva Reports Positive Phase 1 Results for Zika Vaccine Candidate
Nov 4, 2025

Valneva SE announced positive results from its Phase 1 clinical trial of VLA1601, a second-generation adjuvanted inactivated vaccine candidate against the Zika virus. Conducted in the United States with approximately 150 participants, the trial demonstrated that VLA1601 was generally safe and well tolerated, with no safety concerns identified. The strongest immune response was observed in the double-adjuvant treatment arms, showing significantly higher neutralizing antibody titers compared to the single-adjuvant arm. These results indicate an improved immune response over the first-generation vaccine candidate, but further development will depend on securing major funding opportunities.

Valneva Secures $500 Million Financing to Bolster Vaccine Pipeline
Oct 6, 2025

On October 6, 2025, Valneva SE announced a new $500 million non-dilutive financing agreement with Pharmakon Advisors, LP, which includes an initial tranche of $215 million to refinance existing debt. This agreement enhances Valneva’s financial flexibility by lowering the cost of capital and extending repayment terms, allowing the company to focus on advancing its vaccine pipeline, including the Lyme disease candidate VLA15. Additionally, Valneva adjusted its 2025 financial guidance due to the FDA’s suspension of the IXCHIQ® product license, expecting lower product sales and total revenues. The company remains on track with its Phase 3 clinical trial for the Lyme disease vaccine, with outcomes expected in the first half of 2026 and potential commercialization by Pfizer in 2027.

Valneva Reports Long-lasting Antibody Persistence for Chikungunya Vaccine
Oct 6, 2025

On September 30, 2025, Valneva SE announced positive four-year antibody persistence data for its chikungunya vaccine, IXCHIQ®. The data showed that 95% of participants maintained neutralizing antibody titers above the seroresponse threshold, with similar results across different age groups. This long-lasting antibody persistence is a significant advantage for the vaccine, especially in areas prone to chikungunya outbreaks. The trial, supported by CEPI and the EU’s Horizon Europe program, also reported no safety concerns. Valneva aims to expand vaccine access, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, through partnerships such as the one with the Serum Institute of India.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 28, 2025