Valneva Se (VALN)
NASDAQ:VALN
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Valneva
(NASDAQ:VALN)
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Rating:41Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▼(-7.72% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, persistent cash burn, and rising leverage) and bearish technical trend signals. Earnings-call commentary adds near-term pressure from a guidance cut and margin/COGS issues, partially offset by pipeline/regulatory upside (Lyme) and planned cost reductions; valuation provides limited support due to negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Late-stage pipeline efficacy
A >70% Phase III efficacy readout for the Pfizer-partnered Lyme candidate is a structural asset: regulatory filings and potential approval would create a new, high-demand vaccine category with limited competition, enable milestone and royalty inflows, and materially reshape long-term revenue mix and strategic focus.
Negative Factors
Persistent cash burn
Chronic negative operating and free cash flow indicate reliance on external financing to fund operations and pipeline work. Over 2–6 months this limits strategic optionality, risks dilution from equity raises, and compresses runway unless cost cuts or new cash inflows materialize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Late-stage pipeline efficacy
A >70% Phase III efficacy readout for the Pfizer-partnered Lyme candidate is a structural asset: regulatory filings and potential approval would create a new, high-demand vaccine category with limited competition, enable milestone and royalty inflows, and materially reshape long-term revenue mix and strategic focus.
Read all positive factors
Valneva (VALN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$577.54M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)74.68K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.99
Revenue Growth-9.42%
EPS Growth-67.60%
CountryUS
Employees713
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.63
Shares Outstanding94,885,620
10 Day Avg. Volume42,192
30 Day Avg. Volume74,680
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)5.95
Price to Sales (P/S)3.61
P/FCF Ratio-11.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-6.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.23Price Target Upside105.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)$182.41M
Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, focuses on the development and commercialization of prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet needs. Its commercial vaccines for travelers include IXIARO, an inactivated Vero cell culture-der...
How the Company Makes Money
Valneva primarily makes money by selling vaccines and vaccine-related services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Product sales: Revenue from commercial sales of its marketed vaccines, including IXIARO/JEESPECT and DUKORAL, and from sales of IXCHIQ...
Valneva Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: strong R&D and clinical achievements (notably a clinically meaningful Lyme Phase III efficacy result with planned regulatory submissions, progress on Chikungunya and Shigella, and a solid cash buffer) are offset by pronounced near-term financial weakness (sharp revenue declines, margin compression, higher COGS from manufacturing transfer, widened net loss), a guidance downgrade tied to travel headwinds, and ongoing manufacturing/regulatory remediation at the Almeida site. Management is pursuing aggressive cost reductions and is positioning for a potential transformative regulatory outcome for Lyme, but near-term operational and financial challenges remain significant.Positive Updates
Lyme Phase III efficacy and regulatory path
Phase III readout showed clinically meaningful efficacy (overall efficacy above 70%); first prespecified statistical criterion not met but the second prespecified analysis met the lower bound (95% CI lower bound >20). Vaccine was well tolerated with no safety concerns; Pfizer is planning submissions to regulatory authorities.
Negative Updates
Significant revenue decline (Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025)
Total revenues fell to EUR 30.9 million from EUR 49.2 million, a decline of approximately -37.2%; product sales were EUR 30.5 million versus EUR 48.6 million, down ~-37.3% year-over-year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Lyme Phase III efficacy and regulatory path
Phase III readout showed clinically meaningful efficacy (overall efficacy above 70%); first prespecified statistical criterion not met but the second prespecified analysis met the lower bound (95% CI lower bound >20). Vaccine was well tolerated with no safety concerns; Pfizer is planning submissions to regulatory authorities.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Valneva updated FY‑2026 guidance, lowering product sales to €135–150m and total revenues to €145–160m due to weaker travel‑vaccine uptake, and announced a restructuring to reduce global headcount by 10–15% and cut operating expenses by 25–35% versus 2025, while expecting gross margins to normalize after Q1 one‑offs. Q1 results: total revenues €30.9m (product sales €30.5m) with IXIARO €20.2m, DUKORAL €8.6m, IXCHIQ €1.6m and third‑party €0.1m; cost of goods €26.2m (commercial gross margin excl. IXCHIQ 45.2%; IXIARO Q1 gross margin 50.8% vs FY‑2025 IXIARO 59.6%); R&D €15.2m, marketing & distribution €7.0m, G&A €8.2m; operating loss €23.7m, net loss €32.1m and net finance/tax expense €8.4m. Cash at March 31 was €105m (excludes April reserved‑offering proceeds).Valneva Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
32
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 156.33M | 174.66M | 169.58M | 153.71M | 361.30M | 348.08M |
| Gross Profit | 46.05M | 67.52M | 71.04M | 52.84M | 36.86M | 160.16M |
| EBITDA | -96.60M | -50.47M | 32.08M | -57.72M | -104.72M | -38.73M |
| Net Income | -138.03M | -115.19M | -12.25M | -101.43M | -143.28M | -73.42M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 372.40M | 398.84M | 500.03M | 460.06M | 621.34M | 817.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 105.37M | 109.65M | 168.27M | 126.08M | 289.43M | 346.64M |
| Total Debt | 209.72M | 207.25M | 216.31M | 208.82M | 152.38M | 114.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 295.31M | 292.67M | 318.78M | 331.81M | 401.55M | 646.77M |
| Stockholders Equity | 76.78M | 106.17M | 181.25M | 128.25M | 219.80M | 170.58M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -70.92M | -57.38M | -83.66M | -217.06M | -274.67M | -16.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -67.49M | -52.89M | -67.22M | -202.74M | -245.34M | 76.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.77M | -1.71M | 76.92M | -20.59M | -29.05M | -93.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 33.89M | -621.00K | 30.68M | 63.08M | 215.12M | 154.50M |
Valneva Technical Analysis
Positive
5.96
Price Trends
6.08
Positive
8.17
Negative
8.83
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
55.81
Neutral
63.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VALN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.81, below the 50-day MA of 6.08, and below the 200-day MA of 8.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VALN.
Valneva Risk Analysis
Valneva disclosed 86 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Valneva reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Successful commercialization of our products depends on numerous factors, some of which may be outside of our control. Q4, 2023
Valneva Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $900.77M | 5.50 | 129.32% | ― | 2889.93% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $1.69B | -16.57 | -56.07% | ― | 3.42% | -11.04% | |
53 Neutral | $1.37B | -10.60 | 121.52% | ― | 52.92% | 13.32% | |
52 Neutral | $1.04B | -7.71 | 1870.38% | ― | -50.80% | 14.80% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
43 Neutral | $918.36M | -3.78 | -161.87% | ― | ― | -6.15% | |
41 Neutral | $577.54M | -3.26 | -106.22% | ― | -9.42% | -67.60% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
VALN
Valneva
6.25
-0.16
-2.50%
ABUS
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4.56
1.20
35.71%
URGN
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28.13
23.29
481.20%
IVA
Inventiva
4.93
1.54
45.43%
TSHA
Taysha Gene Therapies
5.87
3.09
111.15%
SANA
Sana Biotechnology
3.30
1.10
50.00%
Valneva Corporate Events
Valneva Tightens 2026 Guidance and Restructures as Lyme Vaccine Nears Regulatory Filings
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Valneva reported first-quarter 2026 revenues of €30.9 million, including €30.5 million in product sales, down from a year earlier as the company winds down third-party product distribution and faced shipment phasing ef...
Valneva Sets May 13 Date to Present First-Quarter 2026 Results
May 5, 2026
Valneva SE, a France-based specialty vaccine maker listed on Nasdaq and Euronext Paris, focuses on targeted prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases, funding its pipeline through revenues from three marketed travel vaccines. Its RD portfolio ...
Valneva Raises Up to €84 Million via Private Placement Tied to Lyme Vaccine Milestone
Apr 30, 2026
On April 29, 2026, Valneva SE agreed a €37 million private placement of 15,893,817 new ordinary shares, each bundled with a warrant, at €2.33 per unit, with closing expected on May 5, 2026. If all attached warrants, exercisable at S...
Valneva Showcases Chikungunya Vaccine Progress at World Vaccine Congress in Washington
Mar 26, 2026
On March 26, 2026, Valneva SE announced it will have a significant presence at the 26th World Vaccine Congress in Washington, D.C., taking place from March 31 to April 2, 2026. Led by CEO Thomas Lingelbach, senior executives will participate in mu...
Valneva and Pfizer Report Strong Phase 3 Efficacy for Lyme Disease Vaccine Candidate
Mar 23, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Valneva and Pfizer reported topline Phase 3 results from the VALOR trial of their jointly developed 6‑valent OspA-based Lyme disease vaccine candidate PF‑07307405 (LB6V), showing more than 70% efficacy in preventing ...
Valneva Posts 2025 Results, Flags 2026 as Pivotal Year Ahead of Lyme Vaccine Phase 3 Data
Mar 18, 2026
Valneva reported audited 2025 results on March 18, 2026, posting total revenues of €174.7 million, including €157.9 million in product sales, as well as a widened net loss of €115.2 million largely due to the absence of a prior-y...
Valneva Sets March 18 Date to Release Full-Year 2025 Results
Mar 9, 2026
On March 9, 2026, Valneva announced that it would report its full-year 2025 consolidated financial results on March 18, 2026, and host a live webcast at 3 p.m. CET/10 a.m. EDT to discuss the figures and provide a business update. The planned discl...
Valneva Ramps Up Investor Outreach Ahead of Key Lyme Vaccine Data
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, Valneva announced that senior management will present and hold investor meetings at several upcoming healthcare and life sciences conferences in the U.S. and Europe. CEO Thomas Lingelbach and CFO Peter Buhler plan to discuss key ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.