Valneva (VALN)
NASDAQ:VALN
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Valneva
(NASDAQ:VALN)
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Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-16.11% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/23/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, negative free cash flow, and elevated leverage) and bearish technical momentum (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call adds some support via liquidity/cash-burn improvement and pipeline catalysts, but guidance implies a 2026 revenue step-down and key upside (Lyme) remains timing-dependent. Valuation is difficult to assess with a negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Proprietary product growth
Sustained growth in proprietary vaccines (IXIARO, IXCHIQ) strengthens recurring product revenue and shifts mix toward higher-margin, company-owned assets. This reduces dependence on third-party distribution and supports a more durable commercial base to fund R&D and commercialization over 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Negative cash flow and large losses
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow and large 2025 losses mean ongoing external financing will be necessary absent near-term material milestone receipts. This constrains strategic optionality, risks dilution or covenant pressure, and limits capacity for simultaneous R&D and commercial investment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Proprietary product growth
Sustained growth in proprietary vaccines (IXIARO, IXCHIQ) strengthens recurring product revenue and shifts mix toward higher-margin, company-owned assets. This reduces dependence on third-party distribution and supports a more durable commercial base to fund R&D and commercialization over 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Valneva (VALN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$453.50M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)115.95K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth7.16%
EPS Growth-1934.64%
CountryUS
Employees713
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.37
Shares Outstanding86,106,740
10 Day Avg. Volume40,148
30 Day Avg. Volume115,947
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)5.95
Price to Sales (P/S)3.61
P/FCF Ratio-11.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-6.87
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.23Price Target Upside105.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$192.57M
Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, focuses on the development and commercialization of prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet needs. Its commercial vaccines for travelers include IXIARO, an inactivated Vero cell culture-der...
How the Company Makes Money
Valneva primarily makes money by selling vaccines and vaccine-related services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Product sales: Revenue from commercial sales of its marketed vaccines, including IXIARO/JEESPECT and DUKORAL, and from sales of IXCHIQ...
Valneva Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced mix of strategic and operational positives — stable revenues, proprietary product growth (notably IXIARO), strengthened liquidity and important near‑term clinical milestones (Lyme Phase III readout, Shigella Phase II data). Offsetting these positives were significant near‑term financial pressures: an operating loss and net loss in 2025, inventory write‑downs and persistent idle manufacturing costs, higher R&D spend, and uncertainty over timing of pivotal readouts and commercial milestone realization. The company is focused on cost discipline and pipeline advancement, but material upside from Lyme remains contingent on an external partner‑run readout and subsequent commercialization timing.Positive Updates
Stable Total Revenues and Product Sales
Total revenues exceeded EUR 170 million in FY2025 with product sales of EUR 157.9 million (down -3.3% YoY; -1.3% at constant currency), reflecting overall stability vs. 2024 despite FX headwinds and strategic reduction of third‑party sales.
Negative Updates
Material Operating and Net Losses
Valneva reported an operating loss of EUR 82.1 million in 2025 (versus an operating profit of EUR 13.3 million in 2024) and a net loss of EUR 115.2 million; adjusted EBITDA was negative EUR 51.4 million, reflecting significant profitability pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Stable Total Revenues and Product Sales
Total revenues exceeded EUR 170 million in FY2025 with product sales of EUR 157.9 million (down -3.3% YoY; -1.3% at constant currency), reflecting overall stability vs. 2024 despite FX headwinds and strategic reduction of third‑party sales.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Valneva guided 2026 product sales of EUR 145–160 million and total revenues of EUR 155–170 million, noting the year‑over‑year decline versus 2025 reflects a planned further reduction in third‑party sales offset by continued proprietary product growth; this builds on 2025 product sales of EUR 157.9 million and total revenues just above EUR 170 million, a year‑end cash position of nearly EUR 110 million and a >20% reduction in operating cash burn. Management said it will keep cash preservation a priority, flagged 2025 adjusted EBITDA of –EUR 51.4 million, an operating loss of EUR 82.1 million and a net loss of EUR 115.2 million, expects the 2026 guidance to include anticipated DoD volumes, and noted that a successful Lyme (VLA15) approval and commercialization—which would trigger combined commercial milestones of USD 143 million on first sales (likely ~1.5 years post‑approval)—could make the company financially self‑sustaining and potentially profitable; key clinical readouts flagged in the outlook were VLA15 top‑line in H1 2026 and S4V2/CHIM and other Phase II data mid‑2026.Valneva Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
41
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 174.66M | 169.58M | 153.71M | 361.30M | 348.08M |
| Gross Profit | 67.52M | 71.04M | 52.84M | 36.86M | 160.16M |
| EBITDA | -50.47M | 32.08M | -57.72M | -104.72M | -38.73M |
| Net Income | -115.19M | -12.25M | -101.43M | -143.28M | -73.42M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 398.84M | 500.03M | 460.06M | 621.34M | 817.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 109.65M | 168.27M | 126.08M | 289.43M | 346.64M |
| Total Debt | 207.25M | 216.31M | 208.82M | 152.38M | 114.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 292.67M | 318.78M | 331.81M | 401.55M | 646.77M |
| Stockholders Equity | 106.17M | 181.25M | 128.25M | 219.80M | 170.58M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -57.38M | -83.66M | -217.06M | -274.67M | -16.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -52.89M | -67.22M | -202.74M | -245.34M | 76.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.71M | 76.92M | -20.59M | -29.05M | -93.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -621.00K | 30.68M | 63.08M | 215.12M | 154.50M |
Valneva Technical Analysis
Negative
5.96
Price Trends
8.94
Negative
9.03
Negative
9.02
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.89
Negative
27.57
Positive
28.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VALN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.38, below the 50-day MA of 8.94, and below the 200-day MA of 9.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 27.57 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VALN.
Valneva Risk Analysis
Valneva disclosed 86 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Valneva reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Successful commercialization of our products depends on numerous factors, some of which may be outside of our control. Q4, 2023
Valneva Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
59 Neutral | $1.91B | -15.78 | -56.64% | ― | 17.28% | 5.36% | |
53 Neutral | $864.57M | -61.34 | -42.39% | ― | 128.21% | 53.54% | |
53 Neutral | $1.13B | -10.93 | 170.21% | ― | 21.45% | 0.35% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
47 Neutral | $1.05B | -3.56 | 1870.38% | ― | -50.80% | 14.80% | |
44 Neutral | $910.02M | -4.38 | -141.99% | ― | ― | 16.65% | |
42 Neutral | $453.50M | -3.25 | -74.52% | ― | 7.16% | -1934.64% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
VALN
Valneva
5.17
-1.42
-21.55%
ABUS
Arbutus Biopharma
4.39
1.10
33.43%
URGN
Urogen Pharma
23.29
13.17
130.14%
IVA
Inventiva
5.27
1.67
46.59%
TSHA
Taysha Gene Therapies
6.64
4.74
249.47%
SANA
Sana Biotechnology
3.41
1.71
100.59%
Valneva Corporate Events
Valneva Showcases Chikungunya Vaccine Progress at World Vaccine Congress in Washington
Mar 26, 2026
On March 26, 2026, Valneva SE announced it will have a significant presence at the 26th World Vaccine Congress in Washington, D.C., taking place from March 31 to April 2, 2026. Led by CEO Thomas Lingelbach, senior executives will participate in mu...
Valneva and Pfizer Report Strong Phase 3 Efficacy for Lyme Disease Vaccine Candidate
Mar 23, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Valneva and Pfizer reported topline Phase 3 results from the VALOR trial of their jointly developed 6‑valent OspA-based Lyme disease vaccine candidate PF‑07307405 (LB6V), showing more than 70% efficacy in preventing ...
Valneva Posts 2025 Results, Flags 2026 as Pivotal Year Ahead of Lyme Vaccine Phase 3 Data
Mar 18, 2026
Valneva reported audited 2025 results on March 18, 2026, posting total revenues of €174.7 million, including €157.9 million in product sales, as well as a widened net loss of €115.2 million largely due to the absence of a prior-y...
Valneva Sets March 18 Date to Release Full-Year 2025 Results
Mar 9, 2026
On March 9, 2026, Valneva announced that it would report its full-year 2025 consolidated financial results on March 18, 2026, and host a live webcast at 3 p.m. CET/10 a.m. EDT to discuss the figures and provide a business update. The planned discl...
Valneva Ramps Up Investor Outreach Ahead of Key Lyme Vaccine Data
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, Valneva announced that senior management will present and hold investor meetings at several upcoming healthcare and life sciences conferences in the U.S. and Europe. CEO Thomas Lingelbach and CFO Peter Buhler plan to discuss key ...
Valneva Posts Stable 2025 Revenue, Sets 2026 Outlook Ahead of Key Lyme Vaccine Data
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Valneva reported preliminary unaudited 2025 results showing total revenue of €174.7 million, broadly flat year on year, with product sales of €157.9 million and a sharp, expected 42.3% decline in third‑party...
Valneva’s IXCHIQ Chikungunya Vaccine Faces New UK Use Restrictions but Retains Positive Benefit–Risk Profile
Feb 13, 2026
On February 13, 2026, Valneva reported that the UK’s Commission on Human Medicines has updated its recommendations for the company’s single-dose chikungunya vaccine IXCHIQ, leading to revised prescribing information. The update introdu...
Valneva and Instituto Butantan Launch Pilot Chikungunya Vaccination Campaign in Brazil
Feb 3, 2026
On February 3, 2026, Valneva SE and Brazil’s Instituto Butantan announced the launch of a Pilot Vaccination Strategy in ten Brazilian municipalities using Valneva’s single-shot chikungunya vaccine IXCHIQ®. Under the program, which...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.