Valneva (VALN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $554.25M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 17.37K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 14.86%
• EPS Growth: -1440.45%
• Country: US
• Employees: 713
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.69
• Shares Outstanding: 86,106,740
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,694
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 17,370
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.95
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.61
• P/FCF Ratio: -11.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.30
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.53
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.98
• 1Y Price Target: $13.38
• Price Target Upside: 106.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.89
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $202.02M

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.50 ▲(0.15% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/24/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/24/26

The score is driven primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, negative free cash flow, and elevated leverage) and a bearish technical setup (below major moving averages with negative momentum). These are partially offset by a somewhat positive earnings-call outlook that maintained guidance, highlighted improved cash management and refinancing, and underscored pipeline catalysts, but near-term business and regulatory headwinds remain.

Positive Factors

Late-stage Lyme vaccine (VLA15)

Topline Phase 3 efficacy (>70%) for the Pfizer‑partnered Lyme vaccine positions Valneva with a late‑stage, high‑value asset in a market with no approved human Lyme vaccines. If approved, VLA15 could provide a durable, proprietary revenue stream and shift the company from travel‑only sales to broader endemic market access.

Resilient commercial vaccine franchise

Consistent IXIARO growth and stable product sales reflect recurring demand from government and travel channels, including U.S. DoD contracts. This commercial backbone provides predictable revenue and supports manufacturing scale and market access while reducing binary R&D risk during the multi‑year pipeline commercialization window.

Improved liquidity and refinancing

Successful debt refinancing and a material cash buffer enhance near‑term financial flexibility, lowering immediate funding risk. Reduced operating cash burn combined with refinancing capacity buys runway for regulatory filings, launch investments and post‑marketing studies without immediate dilutive equity raises.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Debt above equity for a loss‑making biotech constrains strategic freedom. Elevated leverage increases refinancing and covenant risk, limits ability to invest in commercial scale‑up for launches, and raises the chance management must prioritize deleveraging or accept dilutive financing over long‑term R&D investments.

Negative cash generation

Sustained negative operating and free cash flow means the company cannot self‑fund development and commercialization. Continued cash burn heightens dependence on external financing, which can delay launches, dilute shareholders, or force prioritization of programs, weakening long‑term growth prospects if structural cash generation isn't achieved.

Regulatory setbacks for IXCHIQ

U.S. filing withdrawal and imposed UK prescribing limits introduce lasting commercial uncertainty for IXCHIQ. Reduced addressable market and additional post‑marketing requirements raise the cost and timeline to realize global uptake, complicating revenue forecasts and weakening the vaccine's role as a near‑term growth contributor.

Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Valneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, focuses on the development and commercialization of prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet needs. Its commercial vaccines for travelers include IXIARO, an inactivated Vero cell culture-derived Japanese encephalitis vaccine indicated for active immunization against Japanese encephalitis; DUKORAL, an oral vaccine for the prevention of diarrhea caused by Vibrio cholera and/or heat-labile toxin producing Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli bacterium; and VLA2001, a vaccine candidate against SARS-CoV-2. The company also develops VLA15, a vaccine candidate that has completed Phase II clinical trial against Borrelia; and VLA1553, a vaccine candidate, which is in Phase III clinical trial against the chikungunya virus. It sells its products in the United States, Canada, Germany, Austria, Nordics, the United Kingdom, other European countries, and internationally. Valneva SE has collaborations with Pfizer, Inc. to co-develop and commercialize its Lyme disease vaccine; and Instituto Butantan for the development, manufacturing, and marketing of single-shot chikungunya vaccine. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Saint-Herblain, France.

How the Company Makes Money

Valneva primarily makes money through (1) sales of commercial vaccines, (2) revenue from collaborations/licensing, and (3) services and other income related to manufacturing and development arrangements (where applicable). 1) Commercial vaccine product sales: A core revenue stream is selling marketed vaccines to government customers, distributors, and travel medicine channels. Key products include: - IXIARO: Sold for immunization against Japanese encephalitis, typically used by travelers and certain military/government customers. - DUKORAL: An oral vaccine for cholera (and indicated in some jurisdictions for protection against diarrhea caused by certain enterotoxigenic E. coli), commonly used in travel medicine and in some public health contexts. Revenue from these products depends on demand in travel/retail channels, procurement volumes, pricing and reimbursement dynamics, and the company’s ability to manufacture and supply doses. 2) Partnerships, licensing, and collaboration revenue: Valneva also earns revenue via strategic agreements with other companies and public-sector counterparties. Depending on contract structure, this can include upfront payments, milestone payments tied to development/regulatory events, cost reimbursements for R&D activities, and royalties on sales of partnered products. Significant partnerships have included Pfizer for the Lyme disease vaccine candidate (VLA15). The exact mix (upfronts, milestones, reimbursements, royalties) varies by agreement terms. 3) Manufacturing, development services, and other income (if applicable): Valneva may generate additional revenue from manufacturing-related activities or services performed under specific agreements (for example, producing vaccine material or performing development work for partners). The availability and size of this stream depend on the existence and scope of such contracts in a given period. Overall, Valneva’s earnings are driven by a combination of recurring product sales from its commercial vaccine portfolio and more variable partnership-related income tied to the progress and commercial performance of partnered and proprietary vaccine programs.

Valneva Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials reflect an unstable earnings profile: TTM revenue slightly declined (-2.9%), operating profitability deteriorated sharply (EBIT margin ~-41%) and net margin is deeply negative (~-57%). Cash flow remains meaningfully negative (TTM FCF about -$57M), and leverage is elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.30), increasing funding risk despite positive equity.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue was roughly flat to down (-2.9% growth) and profitability deteriorated sharply: gross margin improved to ~45%, but the company swung to deeply negative operating results (EBIT margin ~-41%) and a very large net loss (net margin ~-57%). The 2024 annual period showed a brief improvement in operating profitability (positive EBIT and EBITDA), but that improvement did not hold into the latest TTM, highlighting an unstable earnings profile.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated with debt running above equity (TTM debt-to-equity ~1.30), which limits financial flexibility for a loss-making biotech. Equity remains positive (TTM equity ~$106M) but has declined versus prior years, and returns remain meaningfully negative (TTM return on equity ~-59%), reflecting ongoing value erosion despite a moderate asset base (~$399M).

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak: TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow are both negative (about -$53M and -$57M), indicating continued cash burn. While cash burn improved versus 2024 (free cash flow growth positive), the business is still not self-funding, and negative operating cash flow alongside large losses raises reliance on external financing over time.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	174.66M	169.58M	153.71M	361.30M	348.08M
Gross Profit	67.52M	71.04M	52.84M	36.86M	160.16M
EBITDA	-50.47M	32.08M	-57.72M	-104.72M	-38.73M
Net Income	-110.65M	-12.25M	-101.43M	-143.28M	-73.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	398.84M	500.03M	460.06M	621.34M	817.35M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	109.65M	168.27M	126.08M	289.43M	346.64M
Total Debt	207.25M	216.31M	208.82M	152.38M	114.66M
Total Liabilities	292.67M	318.78M	331.81M	401.55M	646.77M
Stockholders Equity	106.17M	181.25M	128.25M	219.80M	170.58M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-57.38M	-83.66M	-217.06M	-274.67M	-16.27M
Operating Cash Flow	-52.89M	-67.22M	-202.74M	-245.34M	76.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.71M	76.92M	-20.59M	-29.05M	-93.12M
Financing Cash Flow	-621.00K	30.68M	63.08M	215.12M	154.50M

Valneva Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.49
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VALN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.67, below the 50-day MA of 10.21, and below the 200-day MA of 9.00, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.78 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VALN.

Valneva Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSHA	53 Neutral	$1.30B	-16.13	-56.64%	―	-36.36%	-945.72%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
URGN	49 Neutral	$842.20M	-7.34	170.21%	―	8.00%	-10.15%
ABUS	48 Neutral	$850.07M	-28.12	-50.20%	―	116.64%	47.93%
IVA	47 Neutral	$1.26B	-0.42	536.36%	―	-12.52%	-82.84%
SANA	46 Neutral	$832.62M	-4.22	-141.99%	―	―	31.16%
VALN	43 Neutral	$554.25M	-5.71	-74.52%	―	14.86%	-1440.45%

Valneva Corporate Events

Valneva and Pfizer Report Strong Phase 3 Efficacy for Lyme Disease Vaccine Candidate

On March 23, 2026, Valneva and Pfizer reported topline Phase 3 results from the VALOR trial of their jointly developed 6‑valent OspA-based Lyme disease vaccine candidate PF‑07307405 (LB6V), showing more than 70% efficacy in preventing Lyme disease in people aged five and older and a favorable safety profile. Although fewer-than-expected Lyme cases meant the primary statistical criterion was not met in the first pre‑specified analysis, a second analysis delivered a confidence interval above the key threshold, bolstering Pfizer’s confidence and positioning Valneva more firmly in the high‑value Lyme vaccine space as the partners move toward regulatory submissions in a market with no approved human Lyme vaccines and rising medical need.

These data underscore Valneva’s strategy of building a differentiated, late‑stage vaccine portfolio alongside its commercial travel franchise, potentially unlocking a significant new revenue stream if approval is granted and shifting competitive dynamics in vector‑borne disease prevention. For stakeholders, the progress in the Lyme program highlights both the opportunity in addressing a growing Northern Hemisphere health burden and the usual development and regulatory risks that can affect timelines, labeling and eventual commercial uptake.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALN) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valneva stock, see the VALN Stock Forecast page.

Valneva Posts 2025 Results, Flags 2026 as Pivotal Year Ahead of Lyme Vaccine Phase 3 Data

Valneva reported audited 2025 results on March 18, 2026, posting total revenues of €174.7 million, including €157.9 million in product sales, as well as a widened net loss of €115.2 million largely due to the absence of a prior-year voucher gain. The group ended 2025 with €109.7 million in cash, reduced operating cash burn by 21%, refinanced debt, and confirmed 2026 guidance of €155–170 million in revenue and further cash-burn improvement while its main third-party distribution contract winds down.

Commercially, sales of IXIARO/JESPECT® rose on travel demand and a new U.S. Department of Defense contract, DUKORAL® was broadly stable, and IXCHIQ® revenue increased on European launches and outbreak response despite regulatory constraints and a voluntary withdrawal of U.S. filings in January 2026. Strategically, 2026 is positioned as a pivotal year, with Phase 3 data for Pfizer-partnered Lyme candidate VLA15 due in the first half and mid‑year Phase 2 data for Shigella vaccine S4V2, outcomes that could reshape Valneva’s pipeline, milestone inflows and long‑term competitive position in specialty vaccines.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALN) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valneva stock, see the VALN Stock Forecast page.

Valneva Sets March 18 Date to Release Full-Year 2025 Results

On March 9, 2026, Valneva announced that it would report its full-year 2025 consolidated financial results on March 18, 2026, and host a live webcast at 3 p.m. CET/10 a.m. EDT to discuss the figures and provide a business update. The planned disclosure and webcast underscore the company’s focus on communicating its financial performance and pipeline progress to investors, at a time when its commercial vaccines and advanced candidates in Lyme disease and Shigella remain central to its growth story in the competitive vaccine market.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALN) stock is a Hold with a $8.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valneva stock, see the VALN Stock Forecast page.

Valneva Ramps Up Investor Outreach Ahead of Key Lyme Vaccine Data

On March 2, 2026, Valneva announced that senior management will present and hold investor meetings at several upcoming healthcare and life sciences conferences in the U.S. and Europe. CEO Thomas Lingelbach and CFO Peter Buhler plan to discuss key value drivers and upcoming catalysts, notably the topline Phase 3 data readout for VLA15, Valneva’s Lyme disease vaccine candidate partnered with Pfizer and expected in the first half of 2026.

The company will participate in TD Cowen’s 46th Annual Health Care Conference in Boston on March 4, 2026, Jefferies’ Biotech on the Beach Summit in Miami on March 10, 2026, and the Van Lanschot Kempen Life Sciences Conference in Amsterdam on April 15, 2026. This investor outreach underscores Valneva’s efforts to highlight its late-stage pipeline, particularly VLA15, to institutional investors at a time when pivotal clinical data could influence its valuation and strategic positioning in the vaccine market.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALN) stock is a Hold with a $8.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valneva stock, see the VALN Stock Forecast page.

Valneva Posts Stable 2025 Revenue, Sets 2026 Outlook Ahead of Key Lyme Vaccine Data

On February 19, 2026, Valneva reported preliminary unaudited 2025 results showing total revenue of €174.7 million, broadly flat year on year, with product sales of €157.9 million and a sharp, expected 42.3% decline in third‑party sales. Cash and cash equivalents stood at €109.7 million at year‑end after debt refinancing, and product sales excluding third‑party items grew 9% at constant exchange rates, underscoring resilience in its core travel vaccine portfolio.

For 2026, the company guided total revenue of €155‑170 million and product sales of €145‑160 million, reflecting growth in proprietary brands but a continued wind‑down of third‑party volumes. Management flagged 2026 as potentially transformational with a Phase 3 data readout for its Lyme disease vaccine VLA15 in the first half and Phase 2 data for its Shigella candidate, while renewing CEO Thomas Lingelbach’s mandate for three more years to secure strategic continuity and support ongoing R&D‑led expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALN) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valneva stock, see the VALN Stock Forecast page.

Valneva’s IXCHIQ Chikungunya Vaccine Faces New UK Use Restrictions but Retains Positive Benefit–Risk Profile

On February 13, 2026, Valneva reported that the UK’s Commission on Human Medicines has updated its recommendations for the company’s single-dose chikungunya vaccine IXCHIQ, leading to revised prescribing information. The update introduces restrictions for people over 60, for patients with specified health conditions, and clarifies timing before travel, following serious adverse event reports mainly among elderly individuals with significant comorbidities during an outbreak campaign on La Réunion.

The UK medicines regulator confirmed that IXCHIQ’s benefit–risk profile remains favorable for individuals aged 18 to 59 at risk of chikungunya infection without contraindicated conditions. The move underscores ongoing regulatory scrutiny of novel travel vaccines while allowing Valneva to continue commercializing IXCHIQ for a key adult segment, as the company stresses its commitment to high safety standards and continued post-marketing monitoring in coordination with health authorities.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALN) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valneva stock, see the VALN Stock Forecast page.

Valneva and Instituto Butantan Launch Pilot Chikungunya Vaccination Campaign in Brazil

On February 3, 2026, Valneva SE and Brazil’s Instituto Butantan announced the launch of a Pilot Vaccination Strategy in ten Brazilian municipalities using Valneva’s single-shot chikungunya vaccine IXCHIQ®. Under the program, which follows IXCHIQ’s April 2025 marketing approval by ANVISA for adults in Brazil, up to 500,000 donated doses will be used to reach 20%–40% coverage among adults aged 18 to 59, generating large-scale, real-world evidence on the vaccine’s effectiveness and safety in an endemic setting. The initiative, built on a longstanding technology transfer and CEPI-backed collaboration, strengthens Valneva’s positioning in emerging-markets vaccines and responds to Brazil’s heavy chikungunya burden—over one million cases between January 2019 and July 2024—potentially enhancing the product’s public-health profile and supporting future policy and market uptake in Latin America and other affected regions.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALN) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valneva stock, see the VALN Stock Forecast page.

Valneva Withdraws U.S. IXCHIQ Chikungunya Filings After FDA Clinical Hold

On January 19, 2026, Valneva announced it had voluntarily withdrawn its biologics license application and Investigational New Drug application for its chikungunya vaccine IXCHIQ in the United States, after the FDA suspended the product’s U.S. license in August 2025 and subsequently placed the IND on clinical hold following a newly reported serious adverse event abroad. The reported case involved a younger adult who had received three concomitant vaccines, including IXCHIQ, and while Valneva said a plausible link to IXCHIQ could not be ruled out, causality has not been determined; the company is seeking more information and will proceed with planned post-marketing clinical activities subject to further discussions with regulators. IXCHIQ remains licensed in Europe, Canada, the UK and Brazil, where it is aimed primarily at travelers and medically justified high‑risk groups in endemic regions, and Valneva continues to review the global commercial opportunity for the vaccine while emphasizing its view that the product’s benefit‑risk profile remains favorable in endemic and outbreak settings, a stance that will be closely watched by regulators, healthcare providers and investors given chikungunya’s growing public health and economic burden.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALN) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valneva stock, see the VALN Stock Forecast page.

Valneva to Engage Investors at J.P. Morgan Conference Ahead of Key Lyme Vaccine Data

On January 9, 2026, Valneva announced that its management team, including CEO Thomas Lingelbach and CFO Peter Bühler, will hold one-on-one meetings with existing shareholders and other institutional specialist investors during the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, taking place January 12–14, 2026, in San Francisco. The executives plan to discuss upcoming catalysts from Valneva’s clinical pipeline—most notably a pivotal data readout for its Lyme disease vaccine expected in the first half of 2026—alongside the performance of its commercial vaccine portfolio, signaling an effort to strengthen investor engagement and highlight the company’s late-stage assets and growth prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALN) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valneva stock, see the VALN Stock Forecast page.

Valneva Regains Full Rights to Chikungunya Vaccine as Serum Institute License Ends

On December 31, 2025, Valneva SE and Serum Institute of India announced they had mutually agreed to discontinue their license agreement covering Valneva’s single-shot chikungunya vaccine. By regaining full rights to the product, Valneva aims to take direct control of supply and commercialization in endemic high-risk countries, a shift intended to accelerate access in regions most affected by chikungunya and to align with its July 2024 funding agreement with CEPI, co-funded by the European Union, to support vaccine access in low- and middle-income countries. The move underscores Valneva’s strategy to tighten control over key assets in its portfolio and could strengthen its positioning in the growing market for vaccines against climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases, as chikungunya is spreading across more than 110 countries and is recognized by the WHO as a major public health problem.

The most recent analyst rating on (VALN) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valneva stock, see the VALN Stock Forecast page.