Valneva (VALN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $811.36M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 24.42K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: 14.86%
• EPS Growth: -1440.45%
• Country: US
• Employees: 713
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.56
• Shares Outstanding: 85,979,140
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 21,581
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 24,416
• PEG Ratio: 0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.75
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.37
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -27.07
• 1Y Price Target: $15.50
• Price Target Upside: 75.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.50 ▲(7.71% Upside)

Valneva's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including negative profitability and cash flow issues. While technical indicators show neutral momentum, and the earnings call highlighted some positive developments, the company's high leverage and ongoing losses weigh heavily on the score. Promising clinical advancements provide potential for future growth but are not enough to offset current financial concerns.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The consistent revenue growth indicates Valneva's expanding market presence and successful product adoption, supporting long-term business stability.

Debt Refinancing

Refinancing improves financial flexibility, allowing Valneva to focus on strategic initiatives and reduce financial risk, supporting sustainable growth.

Lyme Disease Vaccine Development

Advancing Lyme disease vaccine development positions Valneva to capture market share in an unmet medical need, driving future revenue growth.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses financial risks and limits flexibility, potentially impacting Valneva's ability to invest in growth and manage economic downturns.

Negative Profitability

Sustained negative profitability indicates challenges in cost management and revenue generation, threatening long-term financial health and growth potential.

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative cash flow highlights operational inefficiencies and could hinder Valneva's ability to fund R&D and strategic initiatives, affecting future growth.

Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Valneva SE is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing innovative vaccines for infectious diseases. Headquartered in Lyon, France, Valneva operates in the pharmaceutical sector, with a particular emphasis on vaccine development for diseases such as Lyme disease, COVID-19, and chikungunya. The company's core products include its proprietary inactivated vaccine for Japanese encephalitis and a COVID-19 vaccine candidate, among others. Valneva's mission is to address unmet medical needs by leveraging its expertise in vaccine technology.

How the Company Makes Money

Valneva generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its vaccine products. The company's revenue streams include sales from licensed vaccines, government contracts, and partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies for research and development. Valneva has entered into significant collaborations, such as its partnership with the British government for the development of its COVID-19 vaccine, which provides funding and potential revenue from future vaccine sales. Additionally, Valneva may receive milestone payments and royalties from its collaborations, further contributing to its earnings. The company also seeks to expand its market presence through strategic partnerships that enhance its product pipeline and distribution capabilities.

Valneva Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Valneva's financial statements reflect challenges with profitability and cash flow. Despite a healthy gross profit margin, the company faces high leverage and negative profitability metrics. Revenue growth is modest, but operational efficiency and debt management need improvement.

Income Statement

Valneva's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 46.56%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -43.21%, reflecting ongoing losses. Revenue growth is modest at 5.52% TTM, but the company has struggled with profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The company needs to focus on improving operational efficiency and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.20 TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. The return on equity is negative, suggesting that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is moderate, but the company needs to manage its debt levels to improve financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows challenges, with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow TTM. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating declining cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, highlighting cash flow issues. The company must enhance cash flow management to support its operations and growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	196.33M	169.58M	153.71M	361.30M	348.08M	110.32M
Gross Profit	96.25M	71.04M	52.84M	36.86M	160.16M	56.02M
EBITDA	-40.98M	32.08M	-57.72M	-104.72M	-38.73M	-44.76M
Net Income	-67.04M	-12.25M	-101.43M	-143.28M	-73.42M	-64.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	472.63M	500.03M	460.06M	621.34M	817.35M	449.16M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	161.31M	168.27M	126.08M	289.43M	346.64M	204.39M
Total Debt	196.92M	216.31M	208.82M	152.38M	114.66M	105.45M
Total Liabilities	286.19M	318.78M	331.81M	401.55M	646.77M	371.74M
Stockholders Equity	186.43M	181.25M	128.25M	219.80M	170.58M	77.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-34.39M	-83.66M	-217.06M	-274.67M	-16.27M	118.27M
Operating Cash Flow	-11.90M	-67.22M	-202.74M	-245.34M	76.90M	137.74M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.33M	76.92M	-20.59M	-29.05M	-93.12M	-19.34M
Financing Cash Flow	56.57M	30.68M	63.08M	215.12M	154.50M	21.74M

Valneva Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.82
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VALN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.91, below the 50-day MA of 9.69, and above the 200-day MA of 7.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VALN.

Valneva Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
URGN	50 Neutral	$1.14B	―	―	―	8.00%	-10.15%
TSHA	49 Neutral	$1.11B	―	-64.93%	―	-36.36%	-945.72%
VALN	48 Neutral	$811.36M	―	-54.42%	―	14.86%	-1440.45%
IVA	44 Neutral	$616.04M	-0.99	―	―	-12.52%	-82.84%
ABUS	40 Underperform	$801.99M	―	-45.88%	―	116.64%	47.93%
SANA	33 Underperform	$1.06B	―	-96.11%	―	―	31.16%

Valneva Corporate Events

Valneva Reports Nine-Month 2025 Financial Results and Updates on Vaccine Developments

On November 26, 2025, Valneva SE announced its financial results for the first nine months of 2025, reporting total revenues of €127.0 million, an 8.9% increase from the previous year. Despite a net loss of €65.2 million, the company achieved significant financial flexibility through successful debt refinancing and reduced operating cash burn. Valneva’s Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15, is progressing well in its Phase 3 study, with results expected in 2026. The company also highlighted the growth in sales of its Japanese encephalitis vaccine and the launch of its chikungunya vaccine, IXCHIQ®, despite regulatory challenges in the U.S.

Valneva Reports Increased Revenues and Strategic Advances in Vaccine Development

On November 20, 2025, Valneva SE reported its financial results for the first nine months of 2025, highlighting an 8.9% increase in total revenues to €127.0 million compared to the same period in 2024. The company achieved significant financial flexibility through successful debt refinancing and reduced operating cash burn. Despite a net loss of €65.2 million, Valneva’s commercial portfolio showed growth, particularly in its Japanese encephalitis vaccine sales. The company is advancing its Lyme disease vaccine candidate with Pfizer, expecting Phase 3 results in 2026, and is also progressing with its Shigella vaccine candidate, which received Fast Track designation from the FDA.

Valneva Reports Positive Phase 1 Results for Zika Vaccine Candidate

Valneva SE announced positive results from its Phase 1 clinical trial of VLA1601, a second-generation adjuvanted inactivated vaccine candidate against the Zika virus. Conducted in the United States with approximately 150 participants, the trial demonstrated that VLA1601 was generally safe and well tolerated, with no safety concerns identified. The strongest immune response was observed in the double-adjuvant treatment arms, showing significantly higher neutralizing antibody titers compared to the single-adjuvant arm. These results indicate an improved immune response over the first-generation vaccine candidate, but further development will depend on securing major funding opportunities.

Valneva Secures $500 Million Financing to Bolster Vaccine Pipeline

On October 6, 2025, Valneva SE announced a new $500 million non-dilutive financing agreement with Pharmakon Advisors, LP, which includes an initial tranche of $215 million to refinance existing debt. This agreement enhances Valneva’s financial flexibility by lowering the cost of capital and extending repayment terms, allowing the company to focus on advancing its vaccine pipeline, including the Lyme disease candidate VLA15. Additionally, Valneva adjusted its 2025 financial guidance due to the FDA’s suspension of the IXCHIQ® product license, expecting lower product sales and total revenues. The company remains on track with its Phase 3 clinical trial for the Lyme disease vaccine, with outcomes expected in the first half of 2026 and potential commercialization by Pfizer in 2027.

Valneva Reports Long-lasting Antibody Persistence for Chikungunya Vaccine

On September 30, 2025, Valneva SE announced positive four-year antibody persistence data for its chikungunya vaccine, IXCHIQ®. The data showed that 95% of participants maintained neutralizing antibody titers above the seroresponse threshold, with similar results across different age groups. This long-lasting antibody persistence is a significant advantage for the vaccine, especially in areas prone to chikungunya outbreaks. The trial, supported by CEPI and the EU’s Horizon Europe program, also reported no safety concerns. Valneva aims to expand vaccine access, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, through partnerships such as the one with the Serum Institute of India.

Valneva Reports Positive Phase 2 Results for Lyme Disease Vaccine

Valneva SE announced positive results from its Phase 2 study of the Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15, on September 3, 2025. The study showed a strong immune response and favorable safety profile after a third booster dose, consistent with previous results, highlighting the vaccine’s potential benefits. With no approved human vaccines for Lyme disease, VLA15 is the most advanced candidate in clinical development, with two Phase 3 trials nearing completion. The vaccine targets the outer surface protein A of Borrelia burgdorferi, the bacteria causing Lyme disease, and covers the six most prevalent serotypes in North America and Europe. Valneva’s collaboration with Pfizer aims to address the pressing unmet medical need for Lyme disease vaccination as the disease’s geographic footprint expands.