Valneva (VALN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $500.21M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 11.61K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: 20.38%
• EPS Growth: -194.93%
• Country: US
• Employees: 713
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 37
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 85,094,090
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,153
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,610
• PEG Ratio: -0.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.24
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $15.50
• Price Target Upside: 155.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.00 ▼(-1.15%Downside)

The overall stock score of 47 reflects significant financial and valuation challenges, despite some operational achievements and revenue growth. The most impactful factors include the ongoing financial losses and negative cash flow, compounded by a negative P/E ratio. Technical indicators suggest limited momentum, and earnings call insights present mixed sentiment with both significant progress and notable challenges.

Positive Factors

Funding

Valneva received a new grant from CEPI providing up to $41.3M of additional funding.

Partnerships

Valneva announced a new partnership with the Serum Institute of India to supply the vaccine in Asia.

Regulatory Approvals

Ixchiq has received marketing authorization from the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency for the prevention of disease caused by the chikungunya virus in individuals 18 years of age and older.

Negative Factors

Regulatory Challenges

Valneva has assumed all further R&D, CMC, and regulatory activities for potential worldwide commercialization of S4V2.

Risks

Risks include commercial, regulatory, development, manufacturing, financial/dilution, and liability.

Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Valneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, focuses on the development and commercialization of prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet needs. Its commercial vaccines for travelers include IXIARO, an inactivated Vero cell culture-derived Japanese encephalitis vaccine indicated for active immunization against Japanese encephalitis; DUKORAL, an oral vaccine for the prevention of diarrhea caused by Vibrio cholera and/or heat-labile toxin producing Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli bacterium; and VLA2001, a vaccine candidate against SARS-CoV-2. The company also develops VLA15, a vaccine candidate that has completed Phase II clinical trial against Borrelia; and VLA1553, a vaccine candidate, which is in Phase III clinical trial against the chikungunya virus. It sells its products in the United States, Canada, Germany, Austria, Nordics, the United Kingdom, other European countries, and internationally. Valneva SE has collaborations with Pfizer, Inc. to co-develop and commercialize its Lyme disease vaccine; and Instituto Butantan for the development, manufacturing, and marketing of single-shot chikungunya vaccine. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Saint-Herblain, France.

How the Company Makes Money

Valneva generates revenue through the sale of its proprietary vaccines to governments, healthcare providers, and other entities concerned with public health. The company's revenue streams include direct sales of approved vaccines, licensing agreements, and collaboration partnerships with pharmaceutical companies for the development and commercialization of vaccine candidates. Significant partnerships, such as those with Pfizer for Lyme disease vaccine development, contribute to Valneva's earnings by providing milestone payments and royalties. Additionally, the company benefits from government contracts and grants that support vaccine research and production.

Valneva Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Valneva faces financial challenges, with negative net income and declining profitability. Despite some revenue growth, margins remain negative, and cash flow issues persist, indicating poor financial health.

Income Statement

Valneva's income statement reveals a challenging financial position with negative net income and declining profitability. The TTM shows a gross profit margin of 46.56%, but the net profit margin is -43.20%, indicating significant losses. The revenue growth rate from the previous year to TTM is 9.73%, showing some revenue improvement. However, both EBIT and EBITDA margins have turned negative at -32.69% and -29.69% respectively, reflecting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

Valneva's balance sheet highlights a moderate level of financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio for the TTM is 1.20, indicating a relatively high leverage but still within a manageable range. The equity ratio stands at 36.34%, demonstrating that a significant portion of assets is financed by equity. Return on equity is negative at -45.88%, pointing to poor shareholder returns due to ongoing losses.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement indicates cash flow challenges for Valneva. The TTM operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.58, showing a reliance on cash reserves to cover net losses. Free cash flow remains negative, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.75, suggesting inadequate cash generation to support operations and growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	186.06M	169.58M	153.71M	361.30M	348.08M	110.32M
Gross Profit	86.64M	71.04M	52.84M	36.86M	160.16M	56.02M
EBITDA	-55.24M	32.08M	-57.72M	-99.39M	-46.87M	-46.11M
Net Income	-80.39M	-12.25M	-101.43M	-143.28M	-73.42M	-64.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	482.24M	500.03M	460.06M	621.34M	817.35M	449.16M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	152.99M	168.27M	126.08M	289.43M	346.64M	204.39M
Total Debt	211.15M	216.31M	208.82M	152.38M	114.66M	105.45M
Total Liabilities	306.99M	318.78M	331.81M	401.55M	646.77M	371.74M
Stockholders Equity	175.25M	181.25M	128.25M	219.80M	170.58M	77.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-60.32M	-83.66M	-217.06M	-274.67M	-16.27M	118.27M
Operating Cash Flow	-46.93M	-67.22M	-202.74M	-245.34M	76.90M	137.74M
Investing Cash Flow	-10.76M	76.92M	-20.59M	-29.05M	-93.12M	-19.34M
Financing Cash Flow	32.56M	30.68M	63.08M	215.12M	154.50M	21.74M

Valneva Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.07
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VALN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.81, below the 50-day MA of 6.13, and above the 200-day MA of 5.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VALN.

Valneva Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PHAR	66 Neutral	$691.63M	―	-6.33%	―	23.92%	-27.69%
Sector *	59 Neutral	HK$15.54B	5.54	-7.44%	4.07%	11.55%	-28.15%
IMTX	58 Neutral	$729.30M	53.85	-4.52%	―	92.31%	78.17%
ANAB	55 Neutral	$766.54M	―	-343.83%	―	387.20%	21.00%
MRVI	53 Neutral	$695.22M	―	-45.75%	―	-11.76%	-15.82%
VALN	47 Neutral	$500.21M	―	-43.77%	―	20.38%	-194.93%
RCKT	40 Underperform	$318.90M	―	-60.45%	―	―	6.99%