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United Parcel
(NYSE:UPS)
Select Model
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$112.00
▲(5.22% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/12/26
The score is primarily driven by moderated financial performance: solid ongoing profitability but sharp TTM revenue decline, weaker free-cash-flow momentum, and high leverage. The latest earnings call is a meaningful offset with reaffirmed guidance and visible cost-out/automation execution, while technicals remain weak and valuation is mixed (high dividend yield but a relatively high P/E).
Positive Factors
Reaffirmed Guidance
Management's reaffirmation of full‑year 2026 revenue and margin targets signals credible planning and operational visibility. Stable targets support multi‑quarter planning, help preserve supplier/customer confidence, and reduce execution risk for network reconfiguration and margin recovery initiatives.
Negative Factors
Steep Revenue Decline
A near‑40% TTM revenue decline is a structural headwind to fixed‑cost absorption and network economics. Persistent top‑line weakness can depress utilization, pressure margins over multiple quarters, and complicate the timing and payoff of automation and network investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Reaffirmed Guidance
Management's reaffirmation of full‑year 2026 revenue and margin targets signals credible planning and operational visibility. Stable targets support multi‑quarter planning, help preserve supplier/customer confidence, and reduce execution risk for network reconfiguration and margin recovery initiatives.
Read all positive factors
United Parcel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Average Daily Packages
Indicates the volume of packages handled daily, highlighting operational scale, efficiency, and demand trends in the logistics network.
Indicates the volume of packages handled daily, highlighting operational scale, efficiency, and demand trends in the logistics network.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUnited Parcel (UPS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$93.11B
Dividend Yield6.55%
Average Volume (3M)5.72M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.7
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth-2.59%
EPS Growth-9.78%
CountryUS
Employees460,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.19
Shares Outstanding746,581,800
10 Day Avg. Volume5,679,087
30 Day Avg. Volume5,722,436
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-5.11
Price to Book (P/B)5.19
Price to Sales (P/S)0.95
P/FCF Ratio17.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.64
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$113.53Price Target Upside6.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)7.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$90.02B
United Parcel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-d...
How the Company Makes Money
UPS makes money primarily by charging customers to transport and deliver shipments, complemented by fees for logistics and related services. Its revenue model is built around multiple, recurring service lines: (1) Domestic U.S. parcel shipping: UP...
United Parcel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted meaningful strategic progress: strong revenue quality gains, tangible cost-out actions (on track for $3 billion), automation-driven productivity improvements, and validated full-year guidance. These positive developments were offset by significant but described-as-transitional cost pressures (~$350 million), double-digit increases in cost per piece, and volume declines tied to the Amazon glide-down and trade-lane shifts. Management framed the negatives as temporary and outlined clear operational actions and timing (completion by end of June) that should enable margin inflection in the back half of 2026. Given the breadth of strategic wins, profitable growth initiatives (health care, SMB/B2B, DAP), and reaffirmed guidance, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Consolidated Q1 Financial Results
Consolidated revenue of $21.2 billion, operating profit of $1.3 billion, operating margin of 6.2%, and diluted EPS of $1.07 (adjusted results discussed; GAAP includes after-tax transformation charges of $42 million or $0.05 per diluted share).
Negative Updates
Volume Declines in Q1
Total U.S. average daily volume declined 8.0% YoY (air ADV down 8.9%, ground ADV down 7.9%); total international ADV down ~6.0%; U.S. domestic revenue declined 2.3% YoY to $14.1 billion.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Q1 Financial Results
Consolidated revenue of $21.2 billion, operating profit of $1.3 billion, operating margin of 6.2%, and diluted EPS of $1.07 (adjusted results discussed; GAAP includes after-tax transformation charges of $42 million or $0.05 per diluted share).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
UPS reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance, calling for consolidated revenue of approximately $89.7 billion, a consolidated operating margin of about 9.6% and diluted EPS roughly flat to 2025, and said it expects consolidated revenue and operating profit growth with margin expansion in Q2. Segment guidance: U.S. Domestic revenue ~flat for the year with ADV down mid‑single digits and revenue‑per‑piece growth in the mid‑single digits, full‑year U.S. margin flat to 2025 and Q2 U.S. margin guided to 7.5%–8.5% with Q2 revenue up low‑single digits; International revenue up low‑single digits for the year with operating margin in the mid‑teens and Q2 revenue up low‑single digits with a 13%–14% margin; Supply Chain Solutions revenue up high‑single digits (including Andlauer) with operating margin in the low double‑digits and Q2 SCS revenue up low‑single digits with margin 9.5%–10.5%. Capital and cash targets: capex ≈ $3.0B, pension contribution ≈ $1.3B, free cash flow ≈ $5.5B (including one‑time Driver Choice payments) and planned dividends ≈ $5.4B (board approved). Operational targets and progress: $3.0B cost‑out for 2026, ~25 million fewer operational hours target, ~30,000 operational positions reduction goal (nearly 25,000 positions already reduced year‑over‑year; Driver Choice to reduce roughly 7,500 full‑time drivers), 23 buildings closed in Q1 with ~27 more planned, and ongoing fleet/aircraft changes (MD‑11 retirements, 767 deliveries) to reduce leased aircraft and transitional Q1 cost pressures of about $350M noted as largely behind them.United Parcel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 88.32B | 88.66B | 90.89B | 90.75B | 100.03B | 97.20B |
| Gross Profit | 15.71B | 16.03B | 17.06B | 17.71B | 20.08B | 17.43B |
| EBITDA | 11.64B | 11.93B | 11.91B | 12.71B | 18.71B | 20.23B |
| Net Income | 5.25B | 5.57B | 5.78B | 6.71B | 11.55B | 12.89B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 71.81B | 73.09B | 70.07B | 70.86B | 71.12B | 69.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.80B | 5.89B | 6.32B | 6.04B | 7.59B | 10.59B |
| Total Debt | 28.66B | 32.29B | 25.65B | 26.73B | 23.52B | 25.53B |
| Total Liabilities | 56.02B | 56.84B | 53.33B | 53.54B | 51.32B | 55.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.76B | 16.23B | 16.72B | 17.31B | 19.79B | 14.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.52B | 4.76B | 6.21B | 5.08B | 9.34B | 10.81B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.36B | 8.45B | 10.12B | 10.24B | 14.10B | 15.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.32B | -4.74B | -217.00M | -7.13B | -7.47B | -3.82B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.16B | -4.14B | -6.85B | -5.53B | -11.19B | -6.82B |
United Parcel Technical Analysis
Positive
106.44
Price Trends
104.01
Positive
103.83
Positive
98.04
Positive
Market Momentum
1.21
Positive
57.79
Neutral
70.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 106.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 107.68, above the 50-day MA of 104.01, and above the 200-day MA of 98.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UPS.
United Parcel Risk Analysis
United Parcel disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. United Parcel reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
United Parcel Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $21.82B | 26.86 | 36.71% | 1.02% | 1.13% | 2.62% | |
70 Outperform | $74.90B | 17.10 | 15.76% | 1.94% | 7.73% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $16.47B | 12.88 | 14.20% | 2.98% | 15.87% | 1.18% | |
64 Neutral | $24.31B | 70.19 | 19.04% | ― | 3.63% | -11.81% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $22.55B | 38.25 | 33.32% | 1.51% | -6.68% | 18.19% | |
58 Neutral | $93.11B | 17.70 | 33.03% | 6.55% | -2.59% | -9.78% |
* Industrials Sector Average
UPS
United Parcel
109.54
10.79
10.93%
CHRW
CH Robinson
191.27
93.67
95.98%
EXPD
Expeditors International
166.81
48.97
41.56%
XPO
XPO
207.06
74.56
56.27%
FDX
FedEx
313.89
125.00
66.18%
ZTO
ZTO Express
22.78
5.28
30.17%
United Parcel Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
United Parcel board member resigns following external CFO appointment
Neutral
Jun 15, 2026
United Parcel Service, Inc. announced that board member Eva Boratto resigned from its Board of Directors on June 13, 2026, effective immediately. The company said her departure followed her appointment as Chief Financial Officer of Cencora, Inc. a...
Executive/Board Changes
United Parcel Board Member Resigns Following Fed Appointment
Neutral
May 13, 2026
United Parcel Service, Inc. disclosed that board member Kevin M. Warsh had previously stated he would resign from the company’s Board of Directors if confirmed by the U.S. Senate as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve S...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
United Parcel Shareholders Approve 2026 Incentive Compensation Plan
Positive
May 11, 2026
At its May 7, 2026 annual meeting, United Parcel Service shareowners approved the 2026 Omnibus Incentive Compensation Plan, a stock- and cash-based program that enables the company to grant equity and cash awards, including stock appreciation righ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.