United Parcel (UPS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $85.19B
• Dividend Yield: 6.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.82M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: 1.30%
• EPS Growth: -0.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 490,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 1.49
• Shares Outstanding: 733,727,050
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,062,225
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,816,569
• PEG Ratio: -1.30
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.22
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.53
• 1Y Price Target: $112.37
• Price Target Upside: 13.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $113.00 ▲(13.72%Upside)

UPS's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the primary strengths, with solid profitability and a high dividend yield. Technical indicators and a mixed earnings call outlook present moderate challenges, while external uncertainties and strategic shifts continue to influence the stock's potential.

Positive Factors

Profit Improvement

UPS is on track to deliver $1 billion in profit improvement in 2025 and another $1 billion in 2026, supported by a reduction in Amazon low-margin traffic and other efficiency projects.

Valuation Upside

With valuation at a modest 12.4x P/E and 7.1x EV/EBITDA, the risk/reward is biased to the upside, although it may require greater visibility into B2B demand recovery.

Negative Factors

Demand Decline

The 2Q guidance from UPS is below expectations, with a decline in U.S. Domestic margin and a significant reduction in demand in the China-to-U.S. trade lane.

Tariff Impact

Tariff headwinds are weighing on the outlook for United Parcel Service, overshadowing other positive factors.

United Parcel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

United Parcel Service (UPS) is a global leader in logistics, offering a broad range of solutions including the transportation of packages and freight, the facilitation of international trade, and the deployment of advanced technology to more efficiently manage the world of business. Operating in the courier, logistics, and freight sectors, UPS provides services such as package delivery, supply chain management, and specialized transportation solutions across various industries.

How the Company Makes Money

UPS generates revenue primarily through its three main business segments: U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain & Freight. The U.S. Domestic Package segment makes money by delivering packages to businesses and residences within the United States. The International Package segment earns revenue from delivering parcels and freight to international destinations. The Supply Chain & Freight segment generates income by offering logistics services, including freight forwarding, truckload brokerage, and distribution. UPS also benefits from strategic partnerships and investments in technology that enhance operational efficiency and customer service, thus contributing to its profitability. Furthermore, UPS charges additional fees for expedited shipping, oversized packages, and other value-added services, which bolster its revenue streams.

United Parcel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

UPS shows strong financial health with solid profitability and efficient cash flow management. The company maintains healthy margins and effective cost control. However, revenue growth remains stagnant, and the balance sheet is moderately leveraged, which should be monitored.

Income Statement

UPS has shown strong profitability with a consistent EBIT and EBITDA margin. The TTM gross profit margin is healthy at approximately 19%, and the net profit margin is around 6.45%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the revenue growth has been relatively flat, with a slight decline in the TTM compared to the previous reporting period. The company has maintained robust operational margins, which suggests operational efficiency despite revenue stagnation.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet demonstrates moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio around 1.63, indicating reliance on debt but within industry norms. Return on equity stands at around 37.4% TTM, reflecting strong earnings relative to equity. However, the equity ratio is approximately 22.9%, showing limited equity financing, which could be a potential risk if liabilities increase.

Cash Flow

UPS exhibits strong cash flow management, with a solid operating cash flow to net income ratio over 1.5, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. The free cash flow growth rate has been positive, showcasing effective capital expenditure control and cash flow generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is substantial, highlighting strong cash conversion efficiency. These factors contribute to a favorable cash flow position.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	90.86B	91.07B	90.96B	100.34B	97.29B	84.63B
Gross Profit	17.38B	19.36B	17.23B	13.09B	12.81B	7.81B
EBITDA	11.95B	11.91B	12.71B	17.00B	15.82B	10.37B
Net Income	5.86B	5.78B	6.71B	11.55B	12.89B	1.34B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	68.47B	70.07B	70.86B	71.12B	69.41B	62.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.07B	6.32B	6.07B	7.59B	10.59B	6.32B
Total Debt	25.59B	25.65B	26.73B	23.52B	25.53B	27.75B
Total Liabilities	52.78B	53.33B	53.54B	51.32B	55.14B	61.74B
Stockholders Equity	15.66B	16.72B	17.31B	19.79B	14.25B	741.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.37B	6.21B	5.08B	9.34B	10.81B	5.05B
Operating Cash Flow	9.12B	10.12B	10.24B	14.10B	15.01B	10.46B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.14B	-217.00M	-7.13B	-7.47B	-3.82B	-5.28B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.50B	-6.85B	-5.53B	-11.19B	-6.82B	-4.52B

United Parcel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 99.37
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 99.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 99.44, above the 50-day MA of 97.29, and below the 200-day MA of 114.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UPS.

United Parcel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UPS	74 Outperform	$85.19B	14.49	35.96%	6.60%	1.30%	-0.76%
FDX	73 Outperform	$53.19B	13.18	14.69%	2.61%	0.27%	―
EXPD	73 Outperform	$15.38B	18.95	37.70%	1.35%	24.07%	27.40%
ZTO	72 Outperform	$14.18B	11.36	15.68%	3.92%	13.41%	10.00%
CHRW	71 Outperform	$11.01B	22.15	32.11%	2.67%	-0.22%	65.52%
JBHT	69 Neutral	$14.16B	26.04	13.97%	1.23%	-3.82%	-12.80%
Sector *	62 Neutral	C$6.38B	7.52	3.30%	3.17%	6.91%	-13.05%

United Parcel Corporate Events

UPS Appoints John Morikis to Board of Directors

On June 2, 2025, UPS announced the appointment of John Morikis to its Board of Directors, expanding the board to thirteen members. Morikis, who is the retired Chairman, President, and CEO of Sherwin-Williams, brings extensive experience in global operations and business transformation, which is expected to enhance UPS’s strategic direction and governance. His expertise in industry shifts and supply chain optimization will be valuable to UPS as it continues to innovate and lead in the logistics sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPS) stock is a Buy with a $150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United Parcel stock, see the UPS Stock Forecast page.

United Parcel Sells $170M in Senior Notes

On May 15, 2025, United Parcel entered into an agreement to sell $170,673,000 in Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2075 to underwriters, with the proceeds intended for general corporate purposes. This transaction is part of the company’s financial strategy and may impact its operations by providing additional capital, potentially affecting its market positioning and stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPS) stock is a Buy with a $150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United Parcel stock, see the UPS Stock Forecast page.

United Parcel Sells $4 Billion in Senior Notes

On May 12, 2025, United Parcel entered into an agreement with underwriters to sell $4 billion in senior notes with varying interest rates and maturities, including 4.650% notes due 2030 and 6.050% notes due 2065. The proceeds from this transaction are intended for general corporate purposes, potentially impacting the company’s financial flexibility and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPS) stock is a Buy with a $150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United Parcel stock, see the UPS Stock Forecast page.

United Parcel Shareholders Meeting Approves Key Proposals

On May 8, 2025, United Parcel held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where several key proposals were voted on. All twelve director nominees were elected, the executive compensation was approved on an advisory basis, and Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the year ending December 31, 2025. However, two shareowner proposals, one to reduce the voting power of UPS class A stock and another to prepare a report on risks from voluntary carbon-reduction commitments, did not pass.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPS) stock is a Buy with a $150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United Parcel stock, see the UPS Stock Forecast page.