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United Parcel
(NYSE:UPS)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$123.00
▲(7.15% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/28/26
The score is driven by solid but not exceptional financial fundamentals (profitability below peak years and elevated leverage), supported by constructive price trend strength and a shareholder-friendly valuation profile (high dividend yield). The latest earnings call is a meaningful positive due to raised guidance and operational execution/cost-out progress, tempered by persistent volume declines and international margin headwinds.
Positive Factors
Network automation and productivity
Large-scale automation materially lowers unit costs and is durable: automated buildings show ~28% lower cost per piece and handle ~68.5% of U.S. volume. That structural shift improves operating leverage, sustains margins as volume mix changes, and scales with incremental volume over months.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage constrains flexibility
Debt near 1.8–2.0x equity leaves limited buffer in cyclical downturns and reduces financial optionality. Higher leverage increases interest and refinancing risk, constrains aggressive M&A or large incremental investment, and makes sustainment of payouts more sensitive to cash-flow swings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Network automation and productivity
Large-scale automation materially lowers unit costs and is durable: automated buildings show ~28% lower cost per piece and handle ~68.5% of U.S. volume. That structural shift improves operating leverage, sustains margins as volume mix changes, and scales with incremental volume over months.
Read all positive factors
United Parcel Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Average Daily Packages
Indicates the volume of packages handled daily, highlighting operational scale, efficiency, and demand trends in the logistics network.
Indicates the volume of packages handled daily, highlighting operational scale, efficiency, and demand trends in the logistics network.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUnited Parcel (UPS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$88.59B
Dividend Yield6.29%
Average Volume (3M)4.62M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.3
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth-0.19%
EPS Growth-19.99%
CountryUS
Employees460,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.39
Shares Outstanding746,581,800
10 Day Avg. Volume4,548,138
30 Day Avg. Volume4,624,384
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-5.11
Price to Book (P/B)5.19
Price to Sales (P/S)0.95
P/FCF Ratio17.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$115.20Price Target Upside0.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)7.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$91.30B
United Parcel Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-d...
How the Company Makes Money
UPS makes money primarily by charging customers to transport and deliver shipments, complemented by fees for logistics and related services. Its revenue model is built around multiple, recurring service lines: (1) Domestic U.S. parcel shipping: UP...
United Parcel Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational execution: completion of the Amazon glide down, meaningful network automation and productivity gains, solid revenue and operating profit growth, raised full-year guidance, and momentum in higher-margin businesses (SMB, DAP, health care, Supply Chain Solutions). Headwinds included one-time transformation charges, fuel volatility (with a larger impact on International margins), and year-over-year volume declines driven largely by the planned Amazon reduction and trade/tariff noise. Overall, the positive items (execution, margin expansion, guidance raise, automation, and new revenue momentum) materially outweigh the transitory challenges and one-time costs.Positive Updates
Execution of Amazon glide down and network reconfiguration
Successfully completed Amazon glide down as planned, eliminating ~2 million pieces/day of lower-quality Amazon volume, reconfiguring and automating the U.S. network, removing approximately $4.5 billion of related expense to date and expecting roughly $3.0 billion in related benefits in 2026.
Negative Updates
Volume declines in core metrics
Total U.S. average daily volume down 3.3% YoY; total air ADV down 2.3% YoY (excluding Amazon air ADV up 1.2%); ground ADV down 3.5% YoY largely attributable to planned Amazon glide down. Total international average daily volume declined 5.8% YoY and export ADV down 4.2% YoY.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Execution of Amazon glide down and network reconfiguration
Successfully completed Amazon glide down as planned, eliminating ~2 million pieces/day of lower-quality Amazon volume, reconfiguring and automating the U.S. network, removing approximately $4.5 billion of related expense to date and expecting roughly $3.0 billion in related benefits in 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
UPS raised full‑year 2026 guidance to consolidated revenue of about $91.2 billion, consolidated operating profit of about $8.65 billion and diluted EPS of about $7.22; segment guidance included U.S. Domestic revenue of roughly $60 billion (up ~1% YoY) with a full‑year operating margin of ~7.5% (Q3 ADVs expected to decline mid‑single digits, Q3 revenue ~flat YoY, Q3 margin ~7%, and U.S. domestic margin of ~8.8% in the back half), International revenue up mid‑single digits with full‑year operating margin in the mid‑teens (Q3 margin 13–14%), and Supply Chain Solutions revenue growth in the high single digits with a 10–11% operating margin (Q3 revenue growth low double digits, margin 10–11%); corporate cash guidance included ~ $3.0 billion of capital expenditures, a $1.3 billion pension contribution, expected free cash flow of ~ $5.5 billion (includes Driver Choice payments), and planned dividends of about $5.4 billion, and the company said it still expects to realize roughly $3 billion of benefits from the Amazon glide‑down/network reconfiguration in 2026 (with U.S. Q3→Q4 volume seasonality of ~ +24%).United Parcel Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 89.93B | 88.66B | 90.89B | 90.75B | 100.03B | 97.20B |
| Gross Profit | 14.96B | 16.03B | 17.06B | 17.71B | 20.08B | 17.43B |
| EBITDA | 10.60B | 11.93B | 11.91B | 12.71B | 18.71B | 20.23B |
| Net Income | 4.57B | 5.57B | 5.78B | 6.71B | 11.55B | 12.89B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 71.27B | 73.09B | 70.07B | 70.86B | 71.12B | 69.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.65B | 5.89B | 6.32B | 6.04B | 7.59B | 10.59B |
| Total Debt | 25.21B | 32.29B | 25.65B | 26.73B | 23.52B | 25.53B |
| Total Liabilities | 56.17B | 56.84B | 53.33B | 53.54B | 51.32B | 55.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.07B | 16.23B | 16.72B | 17.31B | 19.79B | 14.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.49B | 4.76B | 6.21B | 5.08B | 9.34B | 10.81B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.89B | 8.45B | 10.12B | 10.24B | 14.10B | 15.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.97B | -4.74B | -217.00M | -7.13B | -7.47B | -3.82B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.35B | -4.14B | -6.85B | -5.53B | -11.19B | -6.82B |
United Parcel Technical Analysis
Negative
114.79
Price Trends
108.73
Negative
103.83
Positive
101.31
Positive
Market Momentum
2.23
Positive
57.37
Neutral
50.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 114.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 111.81, above the 50-day MA of 108.73, and above the 200-day MA of 101.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UPS.
United Parcel Risk Analysis
United Parcel disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. United Parcel reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
United Parcel Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $21.96B | 27.04 | 36.71% | 0.90% | 1.13% | 2.62% | |
69 Neutral | $72.73B | 16.74 | 15.11% | 1.50% | 7.73% | 10.07% | |
68 Neutral | $88.59B | 19.34 | 29.07% | 5.71% | -0.19% | -19.99% | |
68 Neutral | $17.93B | 13.91 | 14.20% | 2.89% | 15.87% | 1.18% | |
67 Neutral | $23.53B | 58.59 | 21.57% | ― | 7.06% | 16.37% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $17.41B | 27.82 | 36.01% | 1.35% | -0.09% | 19.50% |
* Industrials Sector Average
UPS
United Parcel
104.22
24.67
31.01%
CHRW
CH Robinson
147.73
34.49
30.46%
EXPD
Expeditors International
167.89
52.21
45.13%
XPO
XPO
200.97
81.48
68.19%
FDX
FedEx
307.40
135.61
78.94%
ZTO
ZTO Express
24.02
4.15
20.90%
United Parcel Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
United Parcel board member resigns following external CFO appointment
Neutral
Jun 15, 2026
United Parcel Service, Inc. announced that board member Eva Boratto resigned from its Board of Directors on June 13, 2026, effective immediately. The company said her departure followed her appointment as Chief Financial Officer of Cencora, Inc. a...
Executive/Board Changes
United Parcel Board Member Resigns Following Fed Appointment
Neutral
May 13, 2026
United Parcel Service, Inc. disclosed that board member Kevin M. Warsh had previously stated he would resign from the company’s Board of Directors if confirmed by the U.S. Senate as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve S...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
United Parcel Shareholders Approve 2026 Incentive Compensation Plan
Positive
May 11, 2026
At its May 7, 2026 annual meeting, United Parcel Service shareowners approved the 2026 Omnibus Incentive Compensation Plan, a stock- and cash-based program that enables the company to grant equity and cash awards, including stock appreciation righ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.