United Parcel (UPS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $73.93B
• Dividend Yield: 7.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.40M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: 0.94%
• EPS Growth: 9.62%
• Country: US
• Employees: 490,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 1.74
• Shares Outstanding: 736,042,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,170,602
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,402,737
• PEG Ratio: -1.39
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.19
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.46
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.57
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.81
• 1Y Price Target: $98.00
• Price Target Upside: 9.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $95.00 ▲(6.48% Upside)

UPS's overall score reflects strong financial performance and attractive valuation, offset by technical weakness and challenges highlighted in the earnings call. The company's strategic initiatives in healthcare logistics and international trade lanes are positive, but domestic volume declines and trade uncertainties present risks.

Positive Factors

Healthcare Logistics Growth

UPS's expansion in healthcare logistics, an $82 billion market, positions it for long-term growth by leveraging its expertise in cold chain and pharma transport.

International Volume Growth

Growth in international volume, especially in Asia, enhances UPS's global market position and offsets domestic volume declines, supporting revenue stability.

Strong Liquidity and Dividend Commitment

Strong liquidity and consistent dividend payments highlight UPS's financial health and commitment to returning value to shareholders, ensuring long-term investor confidence.

Negative Factors

U.S. Domestic Volume Decline

The decline in U.S. domestic volume reflects challenges in UPS's core market, potentially impacting revenue and necessitating strategic adjustments to maintain growth.

China-U.S. Trade Lane Decline

Significant decline in China-U.S. trade lane volume due to tariffs poses risks to UPS's international operations and requires strategic adaptation to mitigate impact.

Uncertain Economic and Trade Environment

Trade policy uncertainties hinder UPS's ability to forecast demand and plan strategically, potentially affecting operational efficiency and financial performance.

United Parcel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

United Parcel Service, Inc. provides letter and package delivery, transportation, logistics, and related services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery of letters, documents, small packages, and palletized freight through air and ground services in the United States. The International Package segment provides guaranteed day and time-definite international shipping services in Europe, the Asia Pacific, Canada and Latin America, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East, and Africa. This segment offers guaranteed time-definite express options. The company also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, distribution and post-sales, and mail and consulting services in approximately 200 countries and territories. In addition, it offers truckload brokerage services; supply chain solutions to the healthcare and life sciences industry; shipping, visibility, and billing technologies; and financial and insurance services. The company operates a fleet of approximately 121,000 package cars, vans, tractors, and motorcycles; and owns 59,000 containers that are used to transport cargo in its aircraft. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

UPS generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around package delivery services. The company's main revenue sources include its domestic package services, which account for a significant portion of its income through the delivery of parcels within the United States. International package services also contribute to earnings, as UPS facilitates global shipping for businesses and consumers. Additionally, the company earns revenue from freight services, which includes both air and ocean freight, catering to larger shipments and logistics needs. UPS has established significant partnerships with various companies, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base. Furthermore, UPS capitalizes on the growing e-commerce market, providing tailored solutions for online retailers, which has become increasingly lucrative as consumer behavior shifts toward digital shopping.

United Parcel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

UPS maintains a solid financial position with strong profitability margins and efficient cash flow management. Despite a slight revenue growth decline and a dip in return on equity, the company demonstrates effective cost control and leverage management.

Income Statement

UPS demonstrates strong profitability with a TTM gross profit margin of approximately 19.2% and a net profit margin of about 6.3%. However, the company has experienced a slight decline in revenue growth from previous periods, evidenced by a TTM revenue decrease from 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain stable, indicating efficient cost management despite the revenue dip.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.83, highlighting a reasonable leverage level for the logistics industry. The equity ratio stands at approximately 22.2%, suggesting a solid capital structure. However, the return on equity has decreased to around 36.4% in the TTM, reflecting slightly reduced profitability for shareholders compared to previous years.

Cash Flow

UPS's cash flow is robust, with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of about 1.3, indicating effective cash conversion. The free cash flow growth rate has decreased, reflecting capital expenditure increases. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains healthy, suggesting good liquidity and investment capacity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	68.68B	90.89B	90.75B	100.03B	97.20B	84.43B
Gross Profit	12.83B	17.06B	17.71B	20.08B	17.43B	21.78B
EBITDA	9.15B	11.91B	12.71B	18.71B	20.23B	5.23B
Net Income	4.54B	5.78B	6.71B	11.55B	12.89B	1.34B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	70.92B	70.07B	70.86B	71.12B	69.41B	62.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.29B	6.32B	6.04B	7.59B	10.59B	6.32B
Total Debt	28.91B	25.65B	26.73B	23.52B	25.53B	27.75B
Total Liabilities	55.15B	53.33B	53.54B	51.32B	55.14B	61.74B
Stockholders Equity	15.75B	16.72B	17.31B	19.79B	14.25B	657.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.10B	6.21B	5.08B	9.34B	10.81B	5.05B
Operating Cash Flow	5.16B	10.12B	10.24B	14.10B	15.01B	10.46B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.79B	-217.00M	-7.13B	-7.47B	-3.82B	-5.28B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.29B	-6.85B	-5.53B	-11.19B	-6.82B	-4.52B

United Parcel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 89.22
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 89.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.81, above the 50-day MA of 85.55, and below the 200-day MA of 97.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.68 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.74 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for UPS.

United Parcel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FDX	―	$56.90B	14.09	14.98%	2.29%	1.14%	4.99%
ZTO	―	$15.09B	13.14	13.98%	3.33%	14.40%	2.41%
UPS	―	$73.93B	12.97	34.96%	7.34%	0.94%	9.62%
EXPD	―	$15.99B	19.22	39.01%	1.25%	23.70%	31.33%
XPO	―	$14.81B	43.33	21.10%	―	-0.11%	-4.28%
Sector *	―	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CHRW	―	$14.89B	28.70	32.43%	1.92%	-2.55%	59.07%

United Parcel Corporate Events

United Parcel Cancels Estafeta Acquisition Plans

On September 17, 2025, United Parcel Service, Inc. decided to terminate its acquisition plans for Estafeta due to unmet closing conditions. This decision could impact the company’s strategic positioning and market expansion plans, potentially affecting stakeholders’ expectations regarding future growth opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPS) stock is a Buy with a $120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United Parcel stock, see the UPS Stock Forecast page.

UPS Reports Mixed Q2 2025 Earnings Amid Strategic Initiatives

United Parcel Service (UPS) is a global leader in logistics, offering a wide range of integrated solutions for customers in over 200 countries, with a focus on innovation and environmental sustainability.

UPS Earnings Call: Mixed Sentiments Amid Challenges

United Parcel Service (UPS) recently held its second-quarter earnings call for 2025, which presented a mixed sentiment. While there were positive developments in strategic initiatives and growth areas such as healthcare logistics and international trade lane adjustments, the call was overshadowed by challenges like declining U.S. consumer sentiment, operational issues with the Ground Saver product, and uncertainties around trade policies and Amazon volume glide down efforts. The absence of forward-looking guidance further highlighted the uncertainties and pressures faced by the company.