XPO (XPO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.18B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.23M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 42.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.86
• Revenue Growth: -0.11%
• EPS Growth: -4.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 38,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 1.05
• Shares Outstanding: 117,762,085
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,591,933
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,232,069
• PEG Ratio: 0.37
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 800.71
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.34
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.84
• 1Y Price Target: $137.94
• Price Target Upside: 14.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $126.00 ▲(4.67% Upside)

XPO's overall score reflects a balanced view of its stable financial performance and strategic operational improvements, offset by technical weaknesses and a stretched valuation. High leverage remains a risk factor, while recent corporate events provide a mixed outlook.

Positive Factors

European Market Performance

Europe delivered a healthy beat, with management attributing this to particular strength in Central Europe and the UK, in part due to strength within the warehousing space.

Financial Performance

XPO posted adjusted EPS that exceeded both analyst estimates and the average Street forecast, showcasing strong financial performance.

Operational Efficiency

Management called out labor productivity and linehaul cost gains as well as measurable gains from AI and tech implementation together with sales efforts increasing the share of higher-mix local accounts.

Negative Factors

Market Expectations

Expectations still seem too high, despite management continuing to execute well with Europe potentially now opened as a new front for upside.

Tonnage and Shipment Decline

Tonnage was down 7%, shipments down 5% with revenue per shipment up 5.6%.

Volume Declines

The bear thesis on large volume declines in the LTL sector has taken hold again, contributing to a negative sentiment around XPO despite its strong financials.

XPO Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides freight transportation services in the United States, rest of North America, France, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, North American LTL and Brokerage and Other Services. The North American LTL segment provides customers with less-than-truckload (LTL) services, such as geographic density and day-definite regional, inter-regional, and transcontinental LTL freight services. This segment also offers cross-border U.S. service to and from Mexico and Canada, as well as intra-Canada service. The Brokerage and Other Services segment offers last mile logistics for heavy goods sold through e-commerce, omnichannel retail, and direct-to-consumer channels, as well as other non-core brokered freight transportation modes. It provides its services to customers in various industries, such as industrial and manufacturing, retail and e-commerce, food and beverage, logistics and transportation, and consumer goods. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Greenwich, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

XPO generates revenue primarily through its less-than-truckload (LTL) transportation services. The company earns money by transporting smaller freight shipments that do not require a full truckload, consolidating multiple shipments to optimize space and efficiency. XPO's revenue streams are bolstered by its sophisticated logistics technology, which enhances route planning, load optimization, and delivery accuracy. Additionally, XPO may engage in partnerships with other logistics providers and businesses to expand its network reach and service offerings, further contributing to its earnings. Factors such as fuel surcharges, service fees, and value-added services like expedited shipping and freight handling also contribute to XPO's revenue model.

XPO Financial Statement Overview

Summary

XPO shows stable financial performance with strong EBIT and EBITDA margins, but high leverage is a concern. The company has room for profitability improvement and must manage capital expenditures efficiently to enhance free cash flow.

Income Statement

XPO's income statement reveals a stable financial performance with a consistent revenue stream over recent periods. The Gross Profit Margin in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is approximately 33.1%, indicating effective cost management. The Net Profit Margin for the same period is around 4.9%, which, while positive, suggests room for improvement in profitability. The Revenue Growth Rate from 2024 to TTM shows a slight decline of 0.8%, pointing to challenges in achieving growth momentum. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 8.1% and 14.7% respectively in TTM, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

XPO maintains a solid equity base with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 2.51 in TTM, indicating a high level of leverage, which could pose financial risk in adverse conditions. The Return on Equity (ROE) is strong at 23.7% in TTM, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the Equity Ratio stands at 26.0%, suggesting moderate reliance on equity financing. The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position, although the high leverage requires careful monitoring.

Cash Flow

XPO's cash flow analysis shows a mixed picture. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate has improved significantly from the previous year, indicating better cash management practices. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is robust at 2.06 in TTM, highlighting strong cash-generating capability relative to net income. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is lower at 0.31, suggesting limited free cash flow after capital expenditures. While cash generation from operations is strong, the company may need to manage its capital investments more efficiently.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.01B	8.07B	7.74B	7.72B	7.20B	6.17B
Gross Profit	908.00M	915.00M	770.00M	730.00M	525.00M	932.00M
EBITDA	1.20B	1.19B	860.00M	785.00M	703.00M	522.00M
Net Income	345.00M	387.00M	189.00M	666.00M	336.00M	110.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.13B	7.71B	7.49B	6.27B	8.71B	16.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	225.00M	246.00M	412.00M	460.00M	260.00M	2.05B
Total Debt	4.17B	4.12B	4.11B	3.25B	4.49B	8.98B
Total Liabilities	6.35B	6.11B	6.23B	5.26B	7.57B	13.32B
Stockholders Equity	1.78B	1.60B	1.27B	1.01B	1.14B	2.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	154.00M	19.00M	-851.00M	311.00M	408.00M	359.00M
Operating Cash Flow	842.00M	808.00M	682.00M	832.00M	721.00M	885.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-601.00M	-702.00M	-1.50B	245.00M	-277.00M	-357.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-265.00M	-226.00M	761.00M	-862.00M	-2.23B	1.14B

XPO Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 120.38
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 120.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 128.85, below the 50-day MA of 125.36, and below the 200-day MA of 126.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.17 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XPO.

XPO Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GXO	74 Outperform	$5.60B	95.66	2.16%	―	22.39%	-54.71%
EXPD	72 Outperform	$15.93B	18.99	39.01%	1.27%	23.70%	31.33%
CHRW	67 Neutral	$13.74B	26.48	32.43%	2.10%	-2.55%	59.07%
Sector *	66 Neutral	4.57B	9.05	13.26%	3.68%	4.42%	4.61%
JBHT	64 Neutral	$13.89B	26.08	14.33%	1.25%	-2.24%	-5.43%
LSTR	61 Neutral	$4.52B	27.38	17.47%	2.70%	-2.10%	-22.19%
XPO	59 Neutral	$14.18B	42.57	21.10%	―	-0.11%	-4.28%

XPO Corporate Events

XPO Releases Q2 2025 Performance Presentation

On July 31, 2025, XPO, Inc. released a slide presentation for future investor engagements, detailing its second quarter 2025 performance. The company reported a revenue of $2.08 billion and an operating income of $198 million, with significant improvements in its North American LTL segment, including a 1% year-over-year increase in LTL adjusted EBITDA and a reduction in purchased transportation expenses. XPO’s strategic focus on enhancing service quality and operational efficiency has led to improved margins and a strong industry position, with ongoing investments in network capacity and technology to drive future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPO) stock is a Buy with a $162.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPO stock, see the XPO Stock Forecast page.

XPO Reports Decline in May 2025 LTL Tonnage

On June 4, 2025, XPO, Inc. released preliminary operating metrics for its North American Less-Than-Truckload segment for May 2025, indicating a 5.7% decrease in LTL tonnage per day compared to May 2024. The decline was due to a 5.0% reduction in shipments per day and a 0.7% decrease in weight per shipment, reflecting ongoing challenges in the freight transportation sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPO) stock is a Buy with a $145.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPO stock, see the XPO Stock Forecast page.

XPO Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting on Governance

On May 15, 2025, XPO, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and financial oversight. Stockholders elected the company’s nominees for director, ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal year 2025, and approved the advisory vote on executive compensation, reflecting confidence in the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPO) stock is a Buy with a $162.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPO stock, see the XPO Stock Forecast page.