XPO (XPO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.14B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.06M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 61.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.68
• Revenue Growth: -0.30%
• EPS Growth: -11.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 38,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 1.07
• Shares Outstanding: 117,384,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,302,696
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,059,012
• PEG Ratio: 0.37
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.01K
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.24
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.94
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 25.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 20.09
• 1Y Price Target: $157.35
• Price Target Upside: -7.23% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $179.00 ▲(5.53% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance and strong technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Offsetting factors are a premium valuation (P/E 58.6) and demand softness reflected in shipment/tonnage declines noted in the earnings call and November operating metrics.

Positive Factors

Revenue & profitability growth

Sustained strong top-line growth alongside healthy EBITDA margins indicates scalable operations and improved unit economics. This supports reinvestment in networks and tech, enabling durable earnings improvement across cycles and a stronger ability to fund strategic initiatives over the next several quarters.

Technology-driven efficiency

Embedded AI optimization and reduced reliance on outsourced miles create a structural cost advantage, improving productivity and lowering per-mile maintenance. These operational gains are durable, boosting margins and capital efficiency as the company scales and making service economics less sensitive to short-term volume swings.

LTL market position & pricing

Consistent yield growth and a materially improved operating ratio in North American LTL reflect pricing power and execution in a higher-value segment. That structural pricing momentum and operating leverage support sustainable margin expansion even if volumes normalize, underpinning medium-term profitability.

Negative Factors

High leverage

Material leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises interest-rate sensitivity, constraining the company’s ability to invest, pursue M&A, or absorb demand shocks. Even with improving results, sustained high debt levels lengthen the paydown horizon and elevate refinancing and covenant risks.

Demand softness / tonnage decline

Falling shipments and tonnage are structural headwinds for a volume-driven model, reducing asset utilization and spreading fixed costs over fewer units. Persistent volume deterioration limits the upside from pricing and productivity, putting pressure on margins and free cash flow over multiple quarters.

Weak free cash flow conversion

Low FCF conversion relative to earnings constrains debt reduction, capex flexibility, and shareholder returns. Even with improving operating cash, limited conversion means profits may not translate quickly into durable balance sheet improvement, slowing deleveraging and strategic optionality.

XPO Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides freight transportation services in the United States, rest of North America, France, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, North American LTL and Brokerage and Other Services. The North American LTL segment provides customers with less-than-truckload (LTL) services, such as geographic density and day-definite regional, inter-regional, and transcontinental LTL freight services. This segment also offers cross-border U.S. service to and from Mexico and Canada, as well as intra-Canada service. The Brokerage and Other Services segment offers last mile logistics for heavy goods sold through e-commerce, omnichannel retail, and direct-to-consumer channels, as well as other non-core brokered freight transportation modes. It provides its services to customers in various industries, such as industrial and manufacturing, retail and e-commerce, food and beverage, logistics and transportation, and consumer goods. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Greenwich, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

XPO makes money through multiple revenue streams, primarily by providing logistics and transportation services to a diverse range of industries. Its key revenue sources include freight brokerage, where the company connects shippers with carriers, and asset-based transportation services, which involve operating its own fleet for freight movement. Additionally, XPO generates income from contract logistics operations, where it manages warehousing and distribution for clients. The company also benefits from technology solutions that optimize supply chain processes. Significant partnerships with major retailers and manufacturers enhance its market reach and contribute to steady revenue generation.

XPO Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong growth and profitability (TTM revenue up 72.4% and EBITDA margin ~14.6%) support the score, but high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.26) and only moderate free-cash-flow conversion relative to net income limit financial flexibility.

Income Statement

XPO's income statement shows a strong revenue growth trajectory, particularly in the TTM period with a 72.4% increase. The company maintains healthy EBITDA margins around 14.6%, indicating efficient operations. However, the gross profit margin has decreased over time, suggesting rising costs or pricing pressures. Net profit margins are stable but could improve further.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, which has improved slightly in the TTM period but remains a concern at 2.26. Return on equity is robust at 19.4%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is relatively low, reflecting high leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

XPO's cash flow statement shows a significant improvement in free cash flow growth in the TTM period, rising by 50.6%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, indicating consistent cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting limited free cash flow relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.07B	8.07B	7.74B	7.72B	7.20B	6.17B
Gross Profit	933.00M	915.00M	770.00M	730.00M	525.00M	932.00M
EBITDA	1.18B	1.19B	860.00M	785.00M	703.00M	522.00M
Net Income	332.00M	387.00M	189.00M	666.00M	336.00M	110.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.19B	7.71B	7.49B	6.27B	8.72B	16.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	335.00M	246.00M	412.00M	460.00M	228.00M	1.73B
Total Debt	4.11B	4.12B	4.11B	3.25B	4.27B	7.37B
Total Liabilities	6.37B	6.11B	6.23B	5.26B	7.58B	13.33B
Stockholders Equity	1.82B	1.60B	1.27B	1.01B	1.14B	2.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	229.00M	15.00M	-851.00M	311.00M	452.00M	636.00M
Operating Cash Flow	946.00M	804.00M	682.00M	832.00M	721.00M	885.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-636.00M	-702.00M	-1.50B	245.00M	-277.00M	-357.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-349.00M	-222.00M	761.00M	-862.00M	-2.23B	1.14B

XPO Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 169.62
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 169.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 150.16, above the 50-day MA of 144.68, and above the 200-day MA of 130.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.15 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XPO.

XPO Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXPD	80 Outperform	$21.92B	26.62	36.47%	1.02%	12.54%	19.59%
XPO	70 Outperform	$19.14B	60.96	19.26%	―	-0.30%	-11.02%
JBHT	69 Neutral	$20.16B	34.57	15.79%	0.89%	-1.60%	4.87%
HUBG	68 Neutral	$3.04B	28.59	6.31%	1.14%	-5.79%	-1.57%
LSTR	67 Neutral	$5.45B	47.91	14.41%	2.56%	-0.74%	-32.79%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CHRW	61 Neutral	$23.45B	41.10	32.91%	1.51%	-7.08%	71.39%

XPO Corporate Events

XPO Reports Decline in November 2025 Metrics

On December 1, 2025, XPO, Inc. reported a decrease in its North American Less-Than-Truckload segment’s operating metrics for November 2025, with a 5.4% drop in tonnage per day compared to November 2024. This decline was due to a 2.2% reduction in shipments per day and a 3.2% decrease in weight per shipment, following a similar trend observed in October 2025, where weight per day decreased by 3.8% compared to October 2024.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPO) stock is a Buy with a $156.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPO stock, see the XPO Stock Forecast page.