XPO (XPO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $16.64B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.35M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 50.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.69
• Revenue Growth: -0.30%
• EPS Growth: -11.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 38,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 1.07
• Shares Outstanding: 117,384,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,238,079
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,346,627
• PEG Ratio: 0.37
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 800.71
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.67
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.36
• 1Y Price Target: $150.88
• Price Target Upside: 6.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.7
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $8.13B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $160.00 ▲(12.89% Upside)

XPO's overall score is driven by strong earnings performance and positive technical indicators. However, high leverage and valuation concerns slightly offset these strengths.

Positive Factors

AI and Technology Enhancements

The integration of AI-driven tools enhances operational efficiency, leading to sustainable productivity improvements and cost savings.

Free Cash Flow and Liquidity

Strong cash flow generation and liquidity position provide financial flexibility for strategic investments and debt management.

North American LTL Business Performance

Growth in the LTL segment indicates robust demand and effective cost management, supporting long-term revenue and margin expansion.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, especially in volatile market conditions, impacting long-term stability.

Tonnage and Shipment Declines

Declines in tonnage and shipments may indicate weakening demand or competitive pressures, potentially affecting future revenue growth.

Impact of Legal Charge

Legal charges can impact profitability and cash flow, diverting resources from growth initiatives and affecting investor confidence.

XPO Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

XPO Logistics, Inc. is a global leader in supply chain solutions, providing a diverse range of transportation and logistics services. The company operates through two main segments: Transportation and Logistics. XPO offers services such as freight brokerage, last-mile delivery, contract logistics, and freight forwarding, catering to various industries including retail, e-commerce, and industrial sectors. With a strong focus on technology and innovation, XPO leverages advanced analytics and automation to optimize its operations and enhance customer experience.

How the Company Makes Money

XPO generates revenue through multiple streams primarily from its Transportation and Logistics segments. In the Transportation sector, the company earns money by providing freight transportation services, including less-than-truckload (LTL), truckload, and last-mile delivery. Revenue is generated from shipping fees charged to customers based on distance, weight, and service type. In the Logistics segment, XPO generates income by offering contract logistics services, where it manages warehousing, inventory management, and distribution for clients, charging fees for storage and handling. Additionally, XPO benefits from technology-driven solutions that enhance operational efficiency, leading to cost savings and improved margins. Strategic partnerships with major retailers and manufacturers also contribute to its earnings, as they provide a stable customer base and volume of shipments.

XPO Financial Statement Overview

Summary

XPO shows strong revenue growth and profitability with solid EBITDA margins. However, high leverage and a low free cash flow to net income ratio are concerns that need addressing.

Income Statement

XPO's income statement shows a strong revenue growth trajectory, particularly in the TTM period with a 72.4% increase. The company maintains healthy EBITDA margins around 14.6%, indicating efficient operations. However, the gross profit margin has decreased over time, suggesting rising costs or pricing pressures. Net profit margins are stable but could improve further.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, which has improved slightly in the TTM period but remains a concern at 2.26. Return on equity is robust at 19.4%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is relatively low, reflecting high leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

XPO's cash flow statement shows a significant improvement in free cash flow growth in the TTM period, rising by 50.6%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, indicating consistent cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting limited free cash flow relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.07B	8.07B	7.74B	7.72B	7.20B	6.17B
Gross Profit	933.00M	915.00M	770.00M	730.00M	525.00M	932.00M
EBITDA	1.18B	1.19B	860.00M	785.00M	703.00M	522.00M
Net Income	332.00M	387.00M	189.00M	666.00M	336.00M	110.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.19B	7.71B	7.49B	6.27B	8.72B	16.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	335.00M	246.00M	412.00M	460.00M	228.00M	1.73B
Total Debt	4.11B	4.12B	4.11B	3.25B	4.27B	7.37B
Total Liabilities	6.37B	6.11B	6.23B	5.26B	7.58B	13.33B
Stockholders Equity	1.82B	1.60B	1.27B	1.01B	1.14B	2.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	229.00M	15.00M	-851.00M	311.00M	452.00M	636.00M
Operating Cash Flow	946.00M	804.00M	682.00M	832.00M	721.00M	885.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-636.00M	-702.00M	-1.50B	245.00M	-277.00M	-357.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-349.00M	-222.00M	761.00M	-862.00M	-2.23B	1.14B

XPO Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 141.73
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 141.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 135.93, above the 50-day MA of 132.29, and above the 200-day MA of 123.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XPO.

XPO Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
XPO	73 Outperform	$16.64B	50.94	19.26%	―	-0.30%	-11.02%
CHRW	71 Outperform	$18.85B	32.34	34.32%	1.66%	-7.08%	71.39%
HUBG	69 Neutral	$2.37B	22.32	6.31%	1.35%	-5.79%	-1.57%
EXPD	67 Neutral	$19.75B	23.99	36.47%	1.11%	12.54%	19.59%
JBHT	65 Neutral	$16.51B	30.01	15.13%	1.01%	-1.60%	4.87%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
LSTR	59 Neutral	$4.49B	33.38	14.41%	2.72%	-0.74%	-32.79%

XPO Corporate Events

Xpo, Inc. Reports Strong Q3 Earnings Amid Challenges

The recent earnings call for Xpo, Inc. painted a picture of strong financial performance, marked by record adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share. These achievements were largely driven by strategic improvements in pricing, AI-driven efficiencies, and operational execution within the North American LTL business. Despite these successes, the company faces challenges, including declines in tonnage and shipments, as well as a legal charge that impacted net income.

XPO, Inc. Reports Resilient Q3 2025 Earnings

XPO, Inc. is a leading provider of less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation services in North America, known for its customer-focused operations and proprietary technology that facilitates the movement of 17 billion pounds of freight annually across 605 locations in North America and Europe.

XPO Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance

On October 30, 2025, XPO, Inc. released a slide presentation highlighting its third-quarter 2025 performance, showcasing a 6% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA to $342 million and an 11% rise in adjusted diluted EPS to $1.07. The company’s North American LTL segment reported record-high adjusted operating income and EBITDA, despite a challenging freight environment, driven by improved operational efficiency and strategic growth initiatives. XPO’s focus on enhancing service quality, expanding its network, and leveraging technology has positioned it as a leading carrier in the LTL industry, with significant margin and earnings expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPO) stock is a Buy with a $140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPO stock, see the XPO Stock Forecast page.

XPO Faces $35 Million Charge from October Trial

XPO, Inc. has been involved in litigation since acquiring Con-way in 2015, related to environmental and product liability claims from a subsidiary sold in 1981. In October 2025, a trial was held to allocate defense and indemnity costs, and XPO expects to recognize a $35 million charge in Q3 2025, impacting its financials.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPO) stock is a Hold with a $144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPO stock, see the XPO Stock Forecast page.

XPO Reports August 2025 LTL Tonnage Decline

On September 3, 2025, XPO, Inc. released preliminary operating metrics for its North American Less-Than-Truckload segment for August 2025, showing a 4.7% decrease in LTL tonnage per day compared to August 2024. The final metrics for July 2025 indicated an 8.7% decrease in weight per day from July 2024, influenced by a reduction in shipments per day and weight per shipment, highlighting ongoing challenges in the freight transportation sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPO) stock is a Hold with a $142.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPO stock, see the XPO Stock Forecast page.