XPO (XPO)
NYSE:XPO
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XPO
(NYSE:XPO)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$194.00
▼(-3.25% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/07/26
The score is driven primarily by improving operating performance and cash flow trajectory, supported by a generally positive earnings outlook and margin improvement targets. These positives are tempered by elevated leverage and an overextended technical setup, while the high P/E reduces valuation support.
Positive Factors
LTL Margin Expansion
Sustained LTL margin expansion reflects durable improvements in pricing, yield management, and network efficiency. Higher operating margins increase free-cash-flow potential across cycles, giving XPO structural resilience and more capacity to fund investments, buybacks, or debt paydown over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Material debt relative to equity limits financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to rate or demand shocks. Even as leverage has improved, the still-elevated debt load constrains capital allocation, increases interest obligations, and leaves less buffer for cyclical volume declines or unexpected cash needs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
LTL Margin Expansion
Sustained LTL margin expansion reflects durable improvements in pricing, yield management, and network efficiency. Higher operating margins increase free-cash-flow potential across cycles, giving XPO structural resilience and more capacity to fund investments, buybacks, or debt paydown over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
XPO (XPO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.49B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.54M
Price to Earnings (P/E)50.8
Beta (1Y)1.60
Revenue Growth-0.30%
EPS Growth-11.02%
CountryUS
Employees38,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.88
Shares Outstanding117,147,354
10 Day Avg. Volume1,485,707
30 Day Avg. Volume1,538,322
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.61
Price to Book (P/B)8.62
Price to Sales (P/S)1.97
P/FCF Ratio48.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit28.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$205.74Price Target Upside2.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)4.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.53B
XPO Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
XPO Logistics, Inc. provides freight transportation services in the United States, rest of North America, France, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, North American LTL and Brokerage and O...
How the Company Makes Money
XPO primarily makes money by charging customers to transport freight through its less-than-truckload (LTL) network. Revenue is generated on a per-shipment basis, with pricing typically influenced by shipment characteristics such as weight, freight...
XPO Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and financial picture: management delivered clear EBITDA and EPS improvements, notable LTL margin expansion (590 bps since 2022), strong pricing and yield trends, meaningful productivity gains and a strategic AI rollout, plus improved liquidity and reduced outsourced miles. Key challenges remain around soft volumes and tonnage declines (partially improving in January), some one-time restructuring charges and continued capital deployment and wage/benefit inflation. Management believes it can generate substantial free cash flow and accelerate share repurchases and debt paydown as results progress.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted Profitability
Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $312 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.88; excluding real estate gains, adjusted EBITDA increased 11% year-over-year and adjusted EPS increased 18% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Soft Volume Trends
Shipments per day declined 1.6% YoY, weight per shipment down 3%, and tonnage per day decreased 4.5% YoY. Quarterly month breakdown: October tonnage -3.8%, November -5.4%, December -4.5%; January improved to roughly flat YoY (but impacted by a major winter storm estimated to have ~3-point negative impact).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted Profitability
Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $312 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.88; excluding real estate gains, adjusted EBITDA increased 11% year-over-year and adjusted EPS increased 18% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 guidance and planning assumptions included gross capital expenditures of $500–600M, interest expense of $205–215M, pension income of ≈$14M, an adjusted effective tax rate of 24–25% and diluted shares of ≈118M; they expect a meaningful acceleration in free cash flow in 2026 (FCF up north of +50% year‑over‑year) to fund increased share repurchases and debt paydown, with year‑end cash of $310M, total liquidity of $910M and net leverage of 2.4x TTM adjusted EBITDA (down from 2.5x in 2024). For North American LTL they forecast 100–150 bps of operating‑ratio improvement in 2026, mid‑single‑digit yield/revenue‑per‑shipment growth (weight per shipment flattish), low‑single‑digit productivity gains with upside to mid‑single‑digit, incremental margins comfortably above 40% in an upcycle, outsourced miles at 5.1%, average sector age 3.7 years, >30% excess door capacity, local shipments ~25% of revenue with a target ~30%, and premium services ~12% with a path to 15%+.XPO Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.16B | 8.07B | 7.74B | 7.72B | 7.20B |
| Gross Profit | 979.00M | 915.00M | 770.00M | 730.00M | 525.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.25B | 1.19B | 860.00M | 785.00M | 703.00M |
| Net Income | 316.00M | 387.00M | 189.00M | 666.00M | 336.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.19B | 7.71B | 7.49B | 6.27B | 8.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 310.00M | 246.00M | 412.00M | 460.00M | 228.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.70B | 4.12B | 4.11B | 3.25B | 4.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.33B | 6.11B | 6.23B | 5.26B | 7.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.86B | 1.60B | 1.27B | 1.01B | 1.14B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 329.00M | 15.00M | -851.00M | 311.00M | 452.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 986.00M | 804.00M | 682.00M | 832.00M | 721.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -616.00M | -702.00M | -1.50B | 245.00M | -277.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -339.00M | -222.00M | 761.00M | -862.00M | -2.23B |
XPO Technical Analysis
Positive
200.52
Price Trends
188.40
Positive
164.92
Positive
147.35
Positive
Market Momentum
1.26
Negative
58.74
Neutral
81.90
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 200.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 189.69, above the 50-day MA of 188.40, and above the 200-day MA of 147.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XPO.
XPO Risk Analysis
XPO disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XPO reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
XPO Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $20.33B | 31.73 | 16.33% | 0.89% | -1.60% | 4.87% | |
68 Neutral | $2.23B | 18.11 | 6.30% | 1.14% | -5.79% | -1.57% | |
66 Neutral | $19.47B | 24.87 | 35.57% | 1.02% | 12.54% | 19.59% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $23.49B | 50.75 | 17.81% | ― | -0.30% | -11.02% | |
61 Neutral | $19.91B | 32.93 | 32.52% | 1.51% | -7.08% | 71.39% | |
58 Neutral | $5.56B | 44.08 | 13.01% | 2.56% | -0.74% | -32.79% |
* Industrials Sector Average
XPO
XPO
200.52
108.47
117.84%
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XPO Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
XPO Reports Mixed February LTL Tonnage and Shipment Trends
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, XPO reported preliminary operating metrics for its North American less-than-truckload segment for February 2026, showing LTL tonnage per day up 0.2% year over year. The modest tonnage gain reflected a 3.0% increase in shipments p...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
XPO Highlights Strong Q4 2025 LTL Margin Expansion
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, XPO released an investor slide presentation providing an overview of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 performance, highlighting significant margin and earnings expansion in its North American LTL business despite a histor...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.