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XPO
(NYSE:XPO)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$237.00
▲(5.32% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/02/26
The score reflects improving operating performance and cash generation (despite leverage and some margin pressure), supported by an uptrend in the technical setup and a constructive earnings-call outlook. The biggest offset is valuation, with a very high P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Cash generation / FCF
Sustained operating cash flow (~$1.03B TTM) and meaningful free cash flow (~$457M TTM) provide durable funding for capex, fleet investment, debt paydown and buybacks. Reliable cash conversion strengthens strategic optionality through industry cycles and supports reinvestment in network density.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
High absolute debt (~$4B) and elevated leverage (TTM D/E ~2.18x) constrain financial flexibility in a cyclical freight industry. Even with refinancing, interest and covenant pressures can limit strategic actions, increase refinancing risk in downturns, and slow sustained debt reduction if free cash flow weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation / FCF
Sustained operating cash flow (~$1.03B TTM) and meaningful free cash flow (~$457M TTM) provide durable funding for capex, fleet investment, debt paydown and buybacks. Reliable cash conversion strengthens strategic optionality through industry cycles and supports reinvestment in network density.
Read all positive factors
XPO (XPO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.65B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)68.3
Beta (1Y)1.54
Revenue Growth3.63%
EPS Growth-11.81%
CountryUS
Employees38,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.95
Shares Outstanding117,409,980
10 Day Avg. Volume1,706,012
30 Day Avg. Volume1,711,312
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.60
Price to Book (P/B)8.62
Price to Sales (P/S)1.97
P/FCF Ratio48.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit27.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda22.62
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$228.29Price Target Upside1.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)4.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.84B
XPO Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
XPO Logistics, Inc. is a prominent provider of freight shipping solutions, operating extensively across the United States, wider North America, various European nations including France and the United Kingdom, and globally. The company's business ...
How the Company Makes Money
XPO primarily makes money by charging customers to transport freight through its less-than-truckload (LTL) network. Revenue is generated on a per-shipment basis, with pricing typically influenced by shipment characteristics such as weight, freight...
XPO Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: record adjusted EBITDA, robust LTL margin expansion, meaningful productivity gains driven by AI tools, service improvements (damage claims below 0.2%), capacity investments, and improving pricing trends. Near-term headwinds include a weaker weight per shipment/revenue-per-shipment start to the year, mixed tonnage trends with April estimated down ~1 point, European and corporate contributions still modest, and exposure to fuel volatility. Management reiterated confidence in outperforming seasonality in Q2, the potential to exceed full-year OR improvement guidance, and multi-year upside driven by pricing, premium services, mix shift and continued productivity—leading to an overall constructive outlook despite some demand and cost uncertainties.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA of $319 million, up 15% year-over-year; adjusted diluted EPS $1.01, up 38% year-over-year; GAAP net income $101 million, up 46% (diluted EPS $0.85).
Negative Updates
Weak Weight per Shipment and Early-Year Revenue per Shipment
Weight per shipment declined 2.8% year-over-year in Q1 (though tonnage per day turned slightly positive +0.1%); management acknowledged revenue per shipment started the year below targets and Q1 revenue-per-shipment performance was the weakest since 2023.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA of $319 million, up 15% year-over-year; adjusted diluted EPS $1.01, up 38% year-over-year; GAAP net income $101 million, up 46% (diluted EPS $0.85).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's forward-looking guidance called for Q2 tonnage to be roughly flat year‑over‑year (April estimated ~‑1% YoY), yield ex‑fuel and revenue per shipment ex‑fuel to accelerate sequentially (Q2 yield described as "comfortable in the mid‑single‑digit range"), and continued shipments‑per‑day improvement, with the company expecting to comfortably outperform normal seasonality (historical Q1→Q2 OR improvement of 250–300 bps) and to improve year‑over‑year OR even more in Q2; for the full year they updated an adjusted effective tax rate of 23%–24% (other planning assumptions unchanged), expressed confidence in potentially beating prior full‑year OR improvement guidance of 100–150 bps and driving LTL operating ratio into the 70s over time, reiterated a target to generate "billions" of cumulative free cash flow to accelerate share repurchases and debt paydown, and said productivity should exceed the long‑term 1.5% target (Q1 was +4%, with each point of productivity ≈ $25–30M of EBITDA and Q1 incremental margin ~58%); available liquidity stood at $837M (cash $237M) after Q1 operating cash flow $183M, net capex $104M, $30M buybacks and $30M term‑loan paydown, and net leverage was ~2.3x TTM adjusted EBITDA.XPO Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.30B | 8.16B | 8.07B | 7.74B | 7.72B | 7.20B |
| Gross Profit | 1.01B | 979.00M | 915.00M | 770.00M | 730.00M | 525.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.22B | 1.18B | 1.19B | 860.00M | 785.00M | 703.00M |
| Net Income | 348.00M | 316.00M | 387.00M | 189.00M | 666.00M | 336.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.18B | 8.19B | 7.71B | 7.49B | 6.27B | 8.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 237.00M | 310.00M | 246.00M | 412.00M | 460.00M | 228.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.03B | 4.70B | 4.12B | 4.11B | 3.25B | 4.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.33B | 6.33B | 6.11B | 6.23B | 5.26B | 7.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.85B | 1.86B | 1.60B | 1.27B | 1.01B | 1.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 457.00M | 329.00M | 15.00M | -851.00M | 311.00M | 452.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.03B | 986.00M | 804.00M | 682.00M | 832.00M | 721.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -532.00M | -616.00M | -702.00M | -1.50B | 245.00M | -277.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -456.00M | -339.00M | -222.00M | 761.00M | -862.00M | -2.23B |
XPO Technical Analysis
Neutral
225.02
Price Trends
212.65
Negative
205.25
Negative
171.62
Positive
Market Momentum
-3.17
Positive
42.77
Neutral
12.84
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 225.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 213.59, above the 50-day MA of 212.65, and above the 200-day MA of 171.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.84 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for XPO.
XPO Risk Analysis
XPO disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XPO reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
XPO Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $21.02B | 25.88 | 36.71% | 1.02% | 1.13% | 2.62% | |
73 Outperform | $26.43B | 43.46 | 17.30% | 0.89% | 0.58% | 17.20% | |
70 Outperform | $7.10B | 57.79 | 14.64% | 2.56% | -0.79% | -28.21% | |
68 Neutral | $2.68B | 25.00 | 6.30% | 1.14% | -5.79% | -1.57% | |
64 Neutral | $23.65B | 68.29 | 19.04% | ― | 3.63% | -11.81% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $21.14B | 35.87 | 33.32% | 1.51% | -6.68% | 18.19% |
* Industrials Sector Average
XPO
XPO
201.46
75.17
59.52%
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XPO Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
XPO Reports Mixed but Improving North American LTL Volumes
Neutral
Jun 3, 2026
On June 3, 2026, XPO reported operating data for its North American less-than-truckload segment, highlighting mixed volume trends in April and modest growth in May. In April 2026, tonnage per day fell 1.5% year over year, as a slight 0.2% increase...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
XPO Refinances Debt with New Term Loan Facilities
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
On May 29, 2026, XPO, Inc. amended its senior secured Term Loan B credit agreement and incurred a new $385 million Term B-4 loan maturing in 2031, secured on a pari passu basis with its existing revolving facility and new Term Loan A facility. The...
Executive/Board Changes
XPO Chief Legal Officer Announces Upcoming Resignation
Negative
May 26, 2026
XPO, Inc. said that chief legal officer and corporate secretary Wendy Cassity notified the company on May 20, 2026, of her intention to resign. Her resignation, effective on or about June 18, 2026, is attributed to personal reasons.The planned dep...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
XPO Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Auditor and Pay Policies
Positive
May 19, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on May 19, 2026, XPO, Inc. shareholders voted on several governance matters, including the election of directors, the ratification of the company’s independent auditor and an advisory vote on execut...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
XPO Highlights Strong Q1 2026 LTL Margin Expansion
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, XPO released an investor slide deck detailing first-quarter 2026 results that showed strong year-on-year growth in revenue, earnings and margins, particularly in its North American LTL business. For Q1 2026, revenue reached $2.1...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.