XPO (XPO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.50B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.69
• Revenue Growth: 1.94%
• EPS Growth: 60.91%
• Country: US
• Employees: 38,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 78
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 3.23
• Shares Outstanding: 117,787,125
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,018,146
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,099,394
• PEG Ratio: 0.31
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.57
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 21.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $128.50
• Price Target Upside: 17.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 22

XPO's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with strengths in operational efficiency and strategic initiatives. However, high leverage and premium valuation present notable risks. The technical analysis suggests caution, while strategic corporate actions and earnings call insights provide optimism for long-term growth. Balancing these factors, XPO scores moderately, indicating potential with some risks.

Positive Factors

Margin Improvement

XPO's YoY OR performance is among the best in the peer group despite the continued weak freight as it executes on LTL 2.0, with continued confidence in additional margin improvement.

Operational Performance

XPO's in-line results will be viewed positively by the Street as a proof point that the company continues to execute on its LTL 2.0 initiatives.

Pricing Strategy

Pricing continues to be a bright spot for XPO as it improves service, increases assessorial revenues, and grows into higher yielding local channels.

Negative Factors

Industrial Economy

XPO's QTD LTL data show continued weakness in the industrial economy and discipline in the freight they are bringing on the network.

Market Environment

The broader industrial freight market remains soft, which could impact XPO's performance.

Trade Uncertainty

There are uncertainties into trade flows, which could impact XPO's high-end 2Q guide for 300bps+ of sequential OR improvement.

XPO Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides freight transportation services in the United States, rest of North America, France, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, North American LTL and Brokerage and Other Services. The North American LTL segment provides customers with less-than-truckload (LTL) services, such as geographic density and day-definite regional, inter-regional, and transcontinental LTL freight services. This segment also offers cross-border U.S. service to and from Mexico and Canada, as well as intra-Canada service. The Brokerage and Other Services segment offers last mile logistics for heavy goods sold through e-commerce, omnichannel retail, and direct-to-consumer channels, as well as other non-core brokered freight transportation modes. It provides its services to customers in various industries, such as industrial and manufacturing, retail and e-commerce, food and beverage, logistics and transportation, and consumer goods. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Greenwich, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

XPO makes money primarily through its less-than-truckload (LTL) transportation services, which account for the majority of its revenue. The company charges customers based on the size, weight, and distance of freight shipments. In addition, XPO leverages its extensive network of transportation assets and logistics technology to optimize routes and reduce operational costs, increasing its profitability. Strategic partnerships with key industry players and investments in technology also contribute to XPO's revenue by enhancing service efficiency and expanding its customer base.

XPO Financial Statement Overview

Summary

XPO shows strong financial performance with a notable recovery in revenue and increased profitability. The income statement and cash flow are positive, but the balance sheet indicates high leverage, which could be a risk if not managed properly.

Income Statement

XPO's income statement shows a strong recovery in revenue, with a growth rate of 4.23% from 2023 to 2024 and improved profitability. The gross profit margin is solid at 100% due to the same value for revenue and gross profit, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin increased to 4.79% in 2024 from 2.44% in 2023, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins, while improved, suggest room for further profitability enhancement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet presents a mixed picture. The debt-to-equity ratio is high, at 2.57 in 2024, indicating significant leverage which could pose financial risk. However, the return on equity has improved to 24.17%, demonstrating that the company is generating solid returns on equity. The equity ratio of 25.80% in 2024 suggests that a moderate portion of the assets is financed by shareholders' equity, which is stable but could be improved.

Cash Flow

XPO's cash flow statement reveals a positive trend, with free cash flow turning positive in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of approximately 2.09 indicates strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow growth rate shows a significant swing from negative to positive, reflecting improved capital expenditure management, yet past volatility should be monitored.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
8.07B	7.74B	7.72B	12.81B	16.25B
	Gross Profit
915.00M	770.00M	1.23B	1.99B	2.56B
	EBIT
660.00M	438.00M	604.00M	616.00M	391.00M
	EBITDA
1.19B	860.00M	941.00M	741.00M	727.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
387.00M	189.00M	184.00M	336.00M	110.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
246.00M	412.00M	460.00M	260.00M	2.05B
	Total Assets
7.71B	7.49B	6.27B	8.71B	16.17B
	Total Debt
4.12B	4.11B	3.25B	4.49B	8.98B
	Net Debt
3.87B	3.70B	2.79B	4.23B	6.93B
	Total Liabilities
6.11B	6.23B	5.26B	7.57B	13.32B
	Stockholders Equity
1.60B	1.27B	1.01B	1.14B	2.71B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
19.00M	-851.00M	311.00M	408.00M	359.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
808.00M	682.00M	832.00M	721.00M	885.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-702.00M	-1.50B	245.00M	-277.00M	-357.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-226.00M	761.00M	-862.00M	-2.23B	1.14B

XPO Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 109.74
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 109.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 98.01, above the 50-day MA of 106.56, and below the 200-day MA of 122.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.10 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for XPO.

XPO Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXPD	71 Outperform	$15.10B	19.18	35.12%	1.33%	13.98%	14.29%
GXO	68 Neutral	$4.23B	32.41	4.53%	―	19.75%	-41.77%
JBHT	64 Neutral	$13.29B	23.92	13.97%	1.33%	-3.82%	-12.80%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$4.28B	11.80	5.30%	250.74%	4.12%	-9.02%
LSTR	63 Neutral	$4.63B	24.02	20.03%	1.05%	-9.13%	-25.11%
CHRW	62 Neutral	$10.67B	23.40	32.11%	2.77%	-0.22%	65.52%
XPO	61 Neutral	$12.50B	32.82	26.24%	―	1.94%	60.91%

XPO Corporate Events

XPO Reports Strong Q1 2025 Performance and Strategy

On April 30, 2025, XPO, Inc. released a slide presentation detailing its first quarter 2025 performance and strategic initiatives. The company reported $1.95 billion in revenue and $151 million in operating income, with significant improvements in its LTL segment, including a 9% year-over-year increase in operating income and a reduction in transportation expenses. XPO’s strategy focuses on enhancing service quality, driving cost efficiencies, and investing in network expansion, which has resulted in improved margins and operational performance. The company’s strong position in the North American LTL market and its strategic initiatives are expected to drive future growth and profitability.

Spark’s Take on XPO Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, XPO is a Neutral.

XPO demonstrates solid financial performance with significant revenue and EBITDA growth. However, high leverage and a premium valuation present risks. Technical indicators suggest caution, and while strategic corporate actions are positive, these factors collectively suggest a moderate outlook.

To see Spark’s full report on XPO stock, click here.

XPO Reports February 2025 LTL Tonnage Decline

On March 4, 2025, XPO, Inc. announced preliminary operating metrics for its North American Less-Than-Truckload segment for February 2025, noting an 8.1% decrease in LTL tonnage per day compared to February 2024. Despite this decline, CEO Mario Harik highlighted that February’s volume outperformed seasonal trends relative to January and aligned with quarterly expectations, supported by a favorable pricing environment and ongoing initiatives to drive sequential pricing growth throughout 2025.

XPO Announces New Refinancing and Credit Agreements

On February 26, 2025, XPO, Inc. announced a refinancing amendment to its Senior Secured Term Loan Credit Agreement, originally dated October 30, 2015. This amendment includes a new term loan B facility totaling $1.1 billion, split into two parts: $700 million and $400 million, with maturities in 2028 and 2031, respectively. The proceeds will refinance existing loans, and the facilities are secured by the company’s assets. Additionally, XPO entered a new Revolving Credit Agreement with a $600 million facility, replacing its former ABL credit facility. This agreement allows for borrowing in U.S. and Canadian dollars, with the funds intended for working capital and general corporate purposes. The new agreements aim to strengthen XPO’s financial flexibility and operational capacity.

XPO Reports Strong Q4 2024 Financial Performance

In its fourth-quarter 2024 report, XPO, Inc. posted notable financial gains, including a 24% year-over-year increase in operating income, reaching $148 million, and a 15% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $303 million. The company’s performance highlights its successful implementation of strategies to enhance margin and earnings in its North American LTL segment, with improved operating ratios and reduced transportation expenses. The positive outcomes are attributed to strategic acquisitions, cost-efficiency measures, and an ongoing focus on providing best-in-class service, positioning XPO for continued growth and enhanced profitability.