XPO (XPO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $17.39B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.30M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 52.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.69
• Revenue Growth: -0.30%
• EPS Growth: -11.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 38,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 1.07
• Shares Outstanding: 117,384,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,765,828
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,298,074
• PEG Ratio: 0.37
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 800.71
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.67
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.36
• 1Y Price Target: $153.12
• Price Target Upside: 5.53% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.66
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $8.11B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $155.00 ▲(6.82% Upside)

XPO's overall score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, tempered by high leverage and valuation concerns. Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, but recent corporate events and legal challenges pose risks.

Positive Factors

AI and Technology Enhancements

The implementation of AI-driven tools enhances operational efficiency, leading to sustained productivity improvements and competitive advantages in logistics.

Free Cash Flow and Liquidity

Strong cash generation and liquidity position provide financial flexibility for strategic investments and resilience against economic fluctuations.

North American LTL Business Performance

Growth in the North American LTL segment indicates robust market positioning and effective operational strategies, supporting long-term revenue potential.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, particularly in economic downturns, potentially impacting long-term sustainability.

Tonnage and Shipment Declines

Declining shipment volumes could signal weakening demand or competitive pressures, potentially affecting future revenue growth and market share.

Impact of Legal Charge

The legal charge impacts financial performance and highlights potential ongoing liabilities, which could affect profitability and cash flow.

XPO Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

XPO Logistics, Inc. is a leading global provider of supply chain solutions, specializing in transportation and logistics services. The company operates in two main sectors: transportation and logistics, offering services such as truckload and less-than-truckload freight transportation, last-mile delivery, contract logistics, and supply chain optimization. XPO leverages advanced technology to enhance its operations and improve efficiency across its extensive network.

How the Company Makes Money

XPO makes money through multiple revenue streams, primarily by providing logistics and transportation services to a diverse range of industries. Its key revenue sources include freight brokerage, where the company connects shippers with carriers, and asset-based transportation services, which involve operating its own fleet for freight movement. Additionally, XPO generates income from contract logistics operations, where it manages warehousing and distribution for clients. The company also benefits from technology solutions that optimize supply chain processes. Significant partnerships with major retailers and manufacturers enhance its market reach and contribute to steady revenue generation.

XPO Financial Statement Overview

Summary

XPO shows strong revenue growth and profitability with solid EBITDA margins. However, high leverage and a low free cash flow to net income ratio are concerns that need addressing.

Income Statement

XPO's income statement shows a strong revenue growth trajectory, particularly in the TTM period with a 72.4% increase. The company maintains healthy EBITDA margins around 14.6%, indicating efficient operations. However, the gross profit margin has decreased over time, suggesting rising costs or pricing pressures. Net profit margins are stable but could improve further.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, which has improved slightly in the TTM period but remains a concern at 2.26. Return on equity is robust at 19.4%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is relatively low, reflecting high leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

XPO's cash flow statement shows a significant improvement in free cash flow growth in the TTM period, rising by 50.6%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, indicating consistent cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting limited free cash flow relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.07B	8.07B	7.74B	7.72B	7.20B	6.17B
Gross Profit	933.00M	915.00M	770.00M	730.00M	525.00M	932.00M
EBITDA	1.18B	1.19B	860.00M	785.00M	703.00M	522.00M
Net Income	332.00M	387.00M	189.00M	666.00M	336.00M	110.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.19B	7.71B	7.49B	6.27B	8.72B	16.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	335.00M	246.00M	412.00M	460.00M	228.00M	1.73B
Total Debt	4.11B	4.12B	4.11B	3.25B	4.27B	7.37B
Total Liabilities	6.37B	6.11B	6.23B	5.26B	7.58B	13.33B
Stockholders Equity	1.82B	1.60B	1.27B	1.01B	1.14B	2.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	229.00M	15.00M	-851.00M	311.00M	452.00M	636.00M
Operating Cash Flow	946.00M	804.00M	682.00M	832.00M	721.00M	885.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-636.00M	-702.00M	-1.50B	245.00M	-277.00M	-357.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-349.00M	-222.00M	761.00M	-862.00M	-2.23B	1.14B

XPO Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 145.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 145.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 140.89, above the 50-day MA of 136.29, and above the 200-day MA of 124.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XPO.

XPO Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXPD	80 Outperform	$20.10B	24.41	36.47%	1.03%	12.54%	19.59%
CHRW	72 Outperform	$18.79B	32.24	34.32%	1.56%	-7.08%	71.39%
XPO	70 Outperform	$17.39B	52.15	19.26%	―	-0.30%	-11.02%
HUBG	68 Neutral	$2.65B	24.98	6.31%	1.15%	-5.79%	-1.57%
JBHT	67 Neutral	$18.74B	34.05	15.13%	0.89%	-1.60%	4.87%
LSTR	67 Neutral	$4.97B	36.92	14.41%	2.56%	-0.74%	-32.79%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

XPO Corporate Events

XPO Reports Decline in November 2025 Metrics

On December 1, 2025, XPO, Inc. reported a decrease in its North American Less-Than-Truckload segment’s operating metrics for November 2025, with a 5.4% drop in tonnage per day compared to November 2024. This decline was due to a 2.2% reduction in shipments per day and a 3.2% decrease in weight per shipment, following a similar trend observed in October 2025, where weight per day decreased by 3.8% compared to October 2024.

XPO Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance

On October 30, 2025, XPO, Inc. released a slide presentation highlighting its third-quarter 2025 performance, showcasing a 6% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA to $342 million and an 11% rise in adjusted diluted EPS to $1.07. The company’s North American LTL segment reported record-high adjusted operating income and EBITDA, despite a challenging freight environment, driven by improved operational efficiency and strategic growth initiatives. XPO’s focus on enhancing service quality, expanding its network, and leveraging technology has positioned it as a leading carrier in the LTL industry, with significant margin and earnings expansion.

XPO Faces $35 Million Charge from October Trial

XPO, Inc. has been involved in litigation since acquiring Con-way in 2015, related to environmental and product liability claims from a subsidiary sold in 1981. In October 2025, a trial was held to allocate defense and indemnity costs, and XPO expects to recognize a $35 million charge in Q3 2025, impacting its financials.