XPO (XPO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.78B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.96M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.85
• Revenue Growth: 1.94%
• EPS Growth: 60.91%
• Country: US
• Employees: 38,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 92
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 0.73
• Shares Outstanding: 117,806,540
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,792,433
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,957,521
• PEG Ratio: 111.52
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 109.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.67
• 1Y Price Target: $127.38
• Price Target Upside: 7.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 21

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $137.00 ▲(15.31%Upside)

XPO's overall stock score reflects a stable financial performance with strengths in operational efficiency, but high leverage and premium valuation present risks. Technical indicators suggest caution due to potential overbought conditions. Strategic initiatives and corporate events provide a positive outlook, but challenges in revenue growth and market conditions persist.

Positive Factors

LTL 2.0 Initiatives

XPO's in-line results will be viewed positively by the Street as a proof point that the company continues to execute on its LTL 2.0 initiatives.

Pricing and Service Improvements

Pricing continues to be a bright spot for XPO as it improves service, increases assessorial revenues, and grows into higher yielding local channels.

Negative Factors

Industrial Freight Market

The broader industrial freight market remains soft, which could impact XPO's performance.

Trade Flow Uncertainties

There are uncertainties into trade flows, which could impact XPO's high-end 2Q guide for 300bps+ of sequential OR improvement.

XPO Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides freight transportation services in the United States, rest of North America, France, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, North American LTL and Brokerage and Other Services. The North American LTL segment provides customers with less-than-truckload (LTL) services, such as geographic density and day-definite regional, inter-regional, and transcontinental LTL freight services. This segment also offers cross-border U.S. service to and from Mexico and Canada, as well as intra-Canada service. The Brokerage and Other Services segment offers last mile logistics for heavy goods sold through e-commerce, omnichannel retail, and direct-to-consumer channels, as well as other non-core brokered freight transportation modes. It provides its services to customers in various industries, such as industrial and manufacturing, retail and e-commerce, food and beverage, logistics and transportation, and consumer goods. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Greenwich, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

XPO generates revenue primarily through its less-than-truckload (LTL) transportation services. The company earns money by transporting smaller freight shipments that do not require a full truckload, consolidating multiple shipments to optimize space and efficiency. XPO's revenue streams are bolstered by its sophisticated logistics technology, which enhances route planning, load optimization, and delivery accuracy. Additionally, XPO may engage in partnerships with other logistics providers and businesses to expand its network reach and service offerings, further contributing to its earnings. Factors such as fuel surcharges, service fees, and value-added services like expedited shipping and freight handling also contribute to XPO's revenue model.

XPO Financial Statement Overview

Summary

XPO exhibits stable financial performance with strong operational efficiency and cash generation. While EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, high leverage is a concern. The company shows potential for improved profitability and growth, requiring careful management of leverage and capital expenditures.

Income Statement

XPO's income statement reveals a stable financial performance with a consistent revenue stream over recent periods. The Gross Profit Margin in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is approximately 33.1%, indicating effective cost management. The Net Profit Margin for the same period is around 4.9%, which, while positive, suggests room for improvement in profitability. The Revenue Growth Rate from 2024 to TTM shows a slight decline of 0.8%, pointing to challenges in achieving growth momentum. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 8.1% and 14.7% respectively in TTM, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

XPO maintains a solid equity base with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 2.51 in TTM, indicating a high level of leverage, which could pose financial risk in adverse conditions. The Return on Equity (ROE) is strong at 23.7% in TTM, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the Equity Ratio stands at 26.0%, suggesting moderate reliance on equity financing. The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position, although the high leverage requires careful monitoring.

Cash Flow

XPO's cash flow analysis shows a mixed picture. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate has improved significantly from the previous year, indicating better cash management practices. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is robust at 2.06 in TTM, highlighting strong cash-generating capability relative to net income. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is lower at 0.31, suggesting limited free cash flow after capital expenditures. While cash generation from operations is strong, the company may need to manage its capital investments more efficiently.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
8.01B	8.07B	7.74B	7.72B	12.81B	16.25B
	Gross Profit
906.00M	915.00M	770.00M	1.23B	1.99B	2.56B
	EBIT
652.00M	660.00M	438.00M	604.00M	616.00M	391.00M
	EBITDA
1.18B	1.19B	860.00M	941.00M	741.00M	727.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
389.00M	387.00M	189.00M	184.00M	336.00M	110.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
212.00M	246.00M	412.00M	460.00M	260.00M	2.05B
	Total Assets
7.88B	7.71B	7.49B	6.27B	8.71B	16.17B
	Total Debt
4.11B	4.12B	4.11B	3.25B	4.49B	8.98B
	Net Debt
3.90B	3.87B	3.70B	2.79B	4.23B	6.93B
	Total Liabilities
6.24B	6.11B	6.23B	5.26B	7.57B	13.32B
	Stockholders Equity
1.64B	1.60B	1.27B	1.01B	1.14B	2.71B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
119.00M	19.00M	-851.00M	311.00M	408.00M	359.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
801.00M	808.00M	682.00M	832.00M	721.00M	885.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-594.00M	-702.00M	-1.50B	245.00M	-277.00M	-357.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-223.00M	-222.00M	761.00M	-862.00M	-2.23B	1.14B

XPO Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 118.81
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 118.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 116.31, above the 50-day MA of 107.93, and below the 200-day MA of 123.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.83 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XPO.

XPO Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXPD	75 Outperform	$15.40B	18.67	37.70%	1.30%	24.07%	27.40%
GXO	74 Outperform	$4.53B	63.99	2.61%	―	23.40%	-55.55%
CHRW	70 Outperform	$11.37B	22.88	32.11%	2.58%	-0.22%	65.52%
LSTR	68 Neutral	$4.79B	27.17	18.34%	1.03%	-4.72%	-22.46%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$4.41B	12.06	5.22%	249.80%	4.09%	-12.16%
JBHT	65 Neutral	$13.63B	24.95	13.97%	1.26%	-3.82%	-12.80%
XPO	64 Neutral	$13.78B	36.00	26.24%	―	1.94%	60.91%

XPO Corporate Events

XPO Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting on Governance

On May 15, 2025, XPO, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and financial oversight. Stockholders elected the company’s nominees for director, ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal year 2025, and approved the advisory vote on executive compensation, reflecting confidence in the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPO) stock is a Buy with a $162.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPO stock, see the XPO Stock Forecast page.

XPO Reports Strong Q1 2025 Performance and Strategy

On April 30, 2025, XPO, Inc. released a slide presentation detailing its first quarter 2025 performance and strategic initiatives. The company reported $1.95 billion in revenue and $151 million in operating income, with significant improvements in its LTL segment, including a 9% year-over-year increase in operating income and a reduction in transportation expenses. XPO’s strategy focuses on enhancing service quality, driving cost efficiencies, and investing in network expansion, which has resulted in improved margins and operational performance. The company’s strong position in the North American LTL market and its strategic initiatives are expected to drive future growth and profitability.

XPO Reports February 2025 LTL Tonnage Decline

On March 4, 2025, XPO, Inc. announced preliminary operating metrics for its North American Less-Than-Truckload segment for February 2025, noting an 8.1% decrease in LTL tonnage per day compared to February 2024. Despite this decline, CEO Mario Harik highlighted that February’s volume outperformed seasonal trends relative to January and aligned with quarterly expectations, supported by a favorable pricing environment and ongoing initiatives to drive sequential pricing growth throughout 2025.