XPO (XPO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $15.28B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 44.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.83
• Revenue Growth: -0.11%
• EPS Growth: -4.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 38,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 1.05
• Shares Outstanding: 117,762,085
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 954,993
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,087,466
• PEG Ratio: 0.37
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 800.71
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.24
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.86
• 1Y Price Target: $139.47
• Price Target Upside: 7.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $143.00 ▲(10.23% Upside)

XPO's overall stock score reflects strong earnings call performance and solid financials, tempered by high leverage and valuation concerns. Technical indicators suggest potential for growth, but valuation remains a challenge.

Positive Factors

Operational Improvements

Operational improvements in the LTL segment demonstrate XPO's ability to enhance efficiency and cost-effectiveness, strengthening its competitive position in a challenging market.

Technology and AI Advancements

XPO's focus on AI and technology advancements drives significant cost savings and operational efficiencies, providing a durable competitive advantage in logistics.

Strategic Investments

Strategic investments in fleet and infrastructure enhance XPO's service capabilities and network efficiency, supporting long-term growth and market leadership.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

XPO's high leverage could pose financial risks, limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, potentially impacting long-term stability.

Volume Challenges

Ongoing volume challenges in the LTL segment reflect broader demand issues, which could pressure revenue growth and operational efficiency in the medium term.

Soft Freight Environment

A persistently soft freight environment could hinder XPO's ability to achieve volume recovery, affecting revenue and profitability over the coming months.

XPO Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides freight transportation services in the United States, rest of North America, France, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, North American LTL and Brokerage and Other Services. The North American LTL segment provides customers with less-than-truckload (LTL) services, such as geographic density and day-definite regional, inter-regional, and transcontinental LTL freight services. This segment also offers cross-border U.S. service to and from Mexico and Canada, as well as intra-Canada service. The Brokerage and Other Services segment offers last mile logistics for heavy goods sold through e-commerce, omnichannel retail, and direct-to-consumer channels, as well as other non-core brokered freight transportation modes. It provides its services to customers in various industries, such as industrial and manufacturing, retail and e-commerce, food and beverage, logistics and transportation, and consumer goods. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Greenwich, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

XPO generates revenue through multiple streams primarily from its Transportation and Logistics segments. In the Transportation sector, the company earns money by providing freight transportation services, including less-than-truckload (LTL), truckload, and last-mile delivery. Revenue is generated from shipping fees charged to customers based on distance, weight, and service type. In the Logistics segment, XPO generates income by offering contract logistics services, where it manages warehousing, inventory management, and distribution for clients, charging fees for storage and handling. Additionally, XPO benefits from technology-driven solutions that enhance operational efficiency, leading to cost savings and improved margins. Strategic partnerships with major retailers and manufacturers also contribute to its earnings, as they provide a stable customer base and volume of shipments.

XPO Financial Statement Overview

Summary

XPO demonstrates solid financial performance with steady revenue growth and profitability. However, high leverage and slightly decreased operational efficiency are concerns. Strong return on equity and improved cash flow generation are positive indicators.

Income Statement

XPO's income statement shows a stable revenue growth rate of 1.2% in the TTM period, with a consistent gross profit margin of around 8%. The net profit margin is healthy at 4.3%, indicating profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly decreased compared to previous periods, suggesting potential pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.34, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. However, the return on equity is strong at 20.7%, reflecting efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 21.9%, suggesting moderate financial stability.

Cash Flow

XPO's cash flow statement shows a robust free cash flow growth rate of 29.4% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.53, suggesting good cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low at 0.18, indicating limited free cash flow relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.01B	8.07B	7.74B	7.72B	7.20B	6.17B
Gross Profit	908.00M	915.00M	770.00M	730.00M	525.00M	932.00M
EBITDA	1.20B	1.19B	860.00M	785.00M	703.00M	522.00M
Net Income	345.00M	387.00M	189.00M	666.00M	336.00M	110.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.13B	7.71B	7.49B	6.27B	8.72B	16.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	225.00M	246.00M	412.00M	460.00M	228.00M	1.73B
Total Debt	4.17B	4.12B	4.11B	3.25B	4.27B	7.37B
Total Liabilities	6.35B	6.11B	6.23B	5.26B	7.58B	13.33B
Stockholders Equity	1.78B	1.60B	1.27B	1.01B	1.14B	2.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	154.00M	19.00M	-851.00M	311.00M	408.00M	359.00M
Operating Cash Flow	842.00M	808.00M	682.00M	832.00M	721.00M	885.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-601.00M	-702.00M	-1.50B	245.00M	-277.00M	-357.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-265.00M	-226.00M	761.00M	-862.00M	-2.23B	1.14B

XPO Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 129.73
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 129.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 131.33, above the 50-day MA of 129.62, and above the 200-day MA of 125.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for XPO.

XPO Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXPD	72 Outperform	16.96B	20.36	38.85%	1.20%	23.70%	31.33%
HUBG	70 Outperform	2.25B	22.75	5.97%	1.36%	-5.37%	-11.26%
XPO	69 Neutral	$15.28B	44.88	21.10%	―	-0.11%	-4.28%
CHRW	69 Neutral	15.95B	30.45	29.94%	1.84%	-2.55%	59.07%
LSTR	67 Neutral	4.35B	27.52	20.15%	2.80%	-2.10%	-22.19%
JBHT	64 Neutral	13.02B	25.04	15.15%	1.30%	-2.24%	-5.43%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

XPO Corporate Events

XPO Reports August 2025 LTL Tonnage Decline

On September 3, 2025, XPO, Inc. released preliminary operating metrics for its North American Less-Than-Truckload segment for August 2025, showing a 4.7% decrease in LTL tonnage per day compared to August 2024. The final metrics for July 2025 indicated an 8.7% decrease in weight per day from July 2024, influenced by a reduction in shipments per day and weight per shipment, highlighting ongoing challenges in the freight transportation sector.

XPO Releases Q2 2025 Performance Presentation

On July 31, 2025, XPO, Inc. released a slide presentation for future investor engagements, detailing its second quarter 2025 performance. The company reported a revenue of $2.08 billion and an operating income of $198 million, with significant improvements in its North American LTL segment, including a 1% year-over-year increase in LTL adjusted EBITDA and a reduction in purchased transportation expenses. XPO’s strategic focus on enhancing service quality and operational efficiency has led to improved margins and a strong industry position, with ongoing investments in network capacity and technology to drive future growth.