XPO (XPO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $15.86B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 46.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.87
• Revenue Growth: -0.11%
• EPS Growth: -4.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 38,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 79
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 1.05
• Shares Outstanding: 117,762,085
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,145,262
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,195,815
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.84
• 1Y Price Target: $138.75
• Price Target Upside: 1.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $137.00 ▲(0.50% Upside)

XPO's overall stock score reflects strong earnings performance and strategic investments, tempered by high leverage and valuation concerns. Mixed technical indicators and sector challenges also weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

European Market Performance

Europe delivered a healthy beat, with management attributing this to particular strength in Central Europe and the UK, in part due to strength within the warehousing space.

Financial Performance

XPO posted adjusted EPS that exceeded both analyst estimates and the average Street forecast, showcasing strong financial performance.

Operational Efficiency

Management called out labor productivity and linehaul cost gains as well as measurable gains from AI and tech implementation together with sales efforts increasing the share of higher-mix local accounts.

Negative Factors

Financial Guidance

Full year LTL margin target was lowered due to expected declines in tonnage.

Sector Sentiment

The bear thesis on large volume declines in the LTL sector has taken hold again, contributing to a negative sentiment around XPO despite its strong financials.

Tonnage Decline

Share price decline is a response to XPO July tonnage down -8% y-y, coupled with lofty expectations going into the print.

XPO Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides freight transportation services in the United States, rest of North America, France, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, North American LTL and Brokerage and Other Services. The North American LTL segment provides customers with less-than-truckload (LTL) services, such as geographic density and day-definite regional, inter-regional, and transcontinental LTL freight services. This segment also offers cross-border U.S. service to and from Mexico and Canada, as well as intra-Canada service. The Brokerage and Other Services segment offers last mile logistics for heavy goods sold through e-commerce, omnichannel retail, and direct-to-consumer channels, as well as other non-core brokered freight transportation modes. It provides its services to customers in various industries, such as industrial and manufacturing, retail and e-commerce, food and beverage, logistics and transportation, and consumer goods. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Greenwich, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

XPO generates revenue through multiple streams primarily from its Transportation and Logistics segments. In the Transportation sector, the company earns money by providing freight transportation services, including less-than-truckload (LTL), truckload, and last-mile delivery. Revenue is generated from shipping fees charged to customers based on distance, weight, and service type. In the Logistics segment, XPO generates income by offering contract logistics services, where it manages warehousing, inventory management, and distribution for clients, charging fees for storage and handling. Additionally, XPO benefits from technology-driven solutions that enhance operational efficiency, leading to cost savings and improved margins. Strategic partnerships with major retailers and manufacturers also contribute to its earnings, as they provide a stable customer base and volume of shipments.

XPO Financial Statement Overview

Summary

XPO demonstrates solid financial performance with steady revenue growth and profitability. However, high leverage poses a financial risk, despite strong return on equity and improved cash flow generation.

Income Statement

XPO's income statement shows a stable revenue growth rate of 1.2% in the TTM period, with a consistent gross profit margin of around 8%. The net profit margin is healthy at 4.3%, indicating profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly decreased compared to previous periods, suggesting potential pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.34, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. However, the return on equity is strong at 20.7%, reflecting efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 21.9%, suggesting moderate financial stability.

Cash Flow

XPO's cash flow statement shows a robust free cash flow growth rate of 29.4% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.53, suggesting good cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low at 0.18, indicating limited free cash flow relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.01B	8.07B	7.74B	7.72B	7.20B	6.17B
Gross Profit	908.00M	915.00M	770.00M	730.00M	525.00M	932.00M
EBITDA	1.20B	1.19B	860.00M	785.00M	703.00M	522.00M
Net Income	345.00M	387.00M	189.00M	666.00M	336.00M	110.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.13B	7.71B	7.49B	6.27B	8.72B	16.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	225.00M	246.00M	412.00M	460.00M	228.00M	1.73B
Total Debt	4.17B	4.12B	4.11B	3.25B	4.27B	7.37B
Total Liabilities	6.35B	6.11B	6.23B	5.26B	7.58B	13.33B
Stockholders Equity	1.78B	1.60B	1.27B	1.01B	1.14B	2.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	154.00M	19.00M	-851.00M	311.00M	408.00M	359.00M
Operating Cash Flow	842.00M	808.00M	682.00M	832.00M	721.00M	885.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-601.00M	-702.00M	-1.50B	245.00M	-277.00M	-357.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-265.00M	-226.00M	761.00M	-862.00M	-2.23B	1.14B

XPO Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 136.32
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 136.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 126.46, above the 50-day MA of 128.18, and above the 200-day MA of 126.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.80 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.98 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XPO.

XPO Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GXO	74 Outperform	$6.10B	100.91	2.16%	―	22.39%	-54.71%
EXPD	72 Outperform	$16.50B	19.64	39.01%	1.23%	23.70%	31.33%
CHRW	69 Neutral	$14.99B	28.78	32.43%	1.95%	-2.55%	59.07%
XPO	67 Neutral	$15.86B	46.59	21.10%	―	-0.11%	-4.28%
JBHT	65 Neutral	$13.97B	25.94	14.33%	1.21%	-2.24%	-5.43%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.95B	16.10	8.81%	1.99%	2.59%	-16.41%
LSTR	60 Neutral	$4.59B	27.88	17.47%	2.66%	-2.10%	-22.19%

XPO Corporate Events

XPO Releases Q2 2025 Performance Presentation

On July 31, 2025, XPO, Inc. released a slide presentation for future investor engagements, detailing its second quarter 2025 performance. The company reported a revenue of $2.08 billion and an operating income of $198 million, with significant improvements in its North American LTL segment, including a 1% year-over-year increase in LTL adjusted EBITDA and a reduction in purchased transportation expenses. XPO’s strategic focus on enhancing service quality and operational efficiency has led to improved margins and a strong industry position, with ongoing investments in network capacity and technology to drive future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPO) stock is a Buy with a $162.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPO stock, see the XPO Stock Forecast page.

XPO Reports Decline in May 2025 LTL Tonnage

On June 4, 2025, XPO, Inc. released preliminary operating metrics for its North American Less-Than-Truckload segment for May 2025, indicating a 5.7% decrease in LTL tonnage per day compared to May 2024. The decline was due to a 5.0% reduction in shipments per day and a 0.7% decrease in weight per shipment, reflecting ongoing challenges in the freight transportation sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPO) stock is a Buy with a $145.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPO stock, see the XPO Stock Forecast page.

XPO Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting on Governance

On May 15, 2025, XPO, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and financial oversight. Stockholders elected the company’s nominees for director, ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal year 2025, and approved the advisory vote on executive compensation, reflecting confidence in the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (XPO) stock is a Buy with a $162.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPO stock, see the XPO Stock Forecast page.