Xpo, Inc. (XPO)
NYSE:XPO
Want to see XPO full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
XPO
(NYSE:XPO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$236.00
▲(4.88% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/01/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (strong cash generation but elevated leverage and some margin pressure) and supportive technical uptrend. Earnings-call guidance adds a positive outlook on operating-ratio improvement and productivity, while the high P/E multiple materially limits the overall score.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent positive operating cash flow and a recovered free cash flow profile provide durable financial flexibility for XPO. Over the next 2–6 months this supports continued capex, fleet investment, targeted buybacks and debt paydown, reducing cyclical vulnerability and funding productivity projects without relying on external financing.
Negative Factors
High leverage
A still sizable capital structure leaves XPO more exposed to cyclical volume declines and interest-cost variability. Elevated leverage constrains strategic flexibility—slowing large opportunistic investments or aggressive share returns—and raises refinancing and covenant risks if freight demand reverses or margins deteriorate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Consistent positive operating cash flow and a recovered free cash flow profile provide durable financial flexibility for XPO. Over the next 2–6 months this supports continued capex, fleet investment, targeted buybacks and debt paydown, reducing cyclical vulnerability and funding productivity projects without relying on external financing.
Read all positive factors
XPO (XPO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.98B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)56.3
Beta (1Y)1.57
Revenue Growth3.63%
EPS Growth-11.81%
CountryUS
Employees38,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.95
Shares Outstanding117,409,980
10 Day Avg. Volume1,457,325
30 Day Avg. Volume1,336,371
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.61
Price to Book (P/B)8.62
Price to Sales (P/S)1.97
P/FCF Ratio48.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.14
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.29
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit27.03
Enterprise Value/Ebitda22.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$224.75Price Target Upside-0.12% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)4.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.80B
XPO Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
XPO Logistics, Inc. provides freight transportation services in the United States, rest of North America, France, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, North American LTL and Brokerage and O...
How the Company Makes Money
XPO primarily makes money by charging customers to transport freight through its less-than-truckload (LTL) network. Revenue is generated on a per-shipment basis, with pricing typically influenced by shipment characteristics such as weight, freight...
XPO Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: record adjusted EBITDA, robust LTL margin expansion, meaningful productivity gains driven by AI tools, service improvements (damage claims below 0.2%), capacity investments, and improving pricing trends. Near-term headwinds include a weaker weight per shipment/revenue-per-shipment start to the year, mixed tonnage trends with April estimated down ~1 point, European and corporate contributions still modest, and exposure to fuel volatility. Management reiterated confidence in outperforming seasonality in Q2, the potential to exceed full-year OR improvement guidance, and multi-year upside driven by pricing, premium services, mix shift and continued productivity—leading to an overall constructive outlook despite some demand and cost uncertainties.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA of $319 million, up 15% year-over-year; adjusted diluted EPS $1.01, up 38% year-over-year; GAAP net income $101 million, up 46% (diluted EPS $0.85).
Negative Updates
Weak Weight per Shipment and Early-Year Revenue per Shipment
Weight per shipment declined 2.8% year-over-year in Q1 (though tonnage per day turned slightly positive +0.1%); management acknowledged revenue per shipment started the year below targets and Q1 revenue-per-shipment performance was the weakest since 2023.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA of $319 million, up 15% year-over-year; adjusted diluted EPS $1.01, up 38% year-over-year; GAAP net income $101 million, up 46% (diluted EPS $0.85).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's forward-looking guidance called for Q2 tonnage to be roughly flat year‑over‑year (April estimated ~‑1% YoY), yield ex‑fuel and revenue per shipment ex‑fuel to accelerate sequentially (Q2 yield described as "comfortable in the mid‑single‑digit range"), and continued shipments‑per‑day improvement, with the company expecting to comfortably outperform normal seasonality (historical Q1→Q2 OR improvement of 250–300 bps) and to improve year‑over‑year OR even more in Q2; for the full year they updated an adjusted effective tax rate of 23%–24% (other planning assumptions unchanged), expressed confidence in potentially beating prior full‑year OR improvement guidance of 100–150 bps and driving LTL operating ratio into the 70s over time, reiterated a target to generate "billions" of cumulative free cash flow to accelerate share repurchases and debt paydown, and said productivity should exceed the long‑term 1.5% target (Q1 was +4%, with each point of productivity ≈ $25–30M of EBITDA and Q1 incremental margin ~58%); available liquidity stood at $837M (cash $237M) after Q1 operating cash flow $183M, net capex $104M, $30M buybacks and $30M term‑loan paydown, and net leverage was ~2.3x TTM adjusted EBITDA.XPO Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.30B | 8.16B | 8.07B | 7.74B | 7.72B | 7.20B |
| Gross Profit | 1.01B | 979.00M | 915.00M | 770.00M | 730.00M | 525.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.22B | 1.25B | 1.19B | 860.00M | 785.00M | 703.00M |
| Net Income | 348.00M | 316.00M | 387.00M | 189.00M | 666.00M | 336.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.18B | 8.19B | 7.71B | 7.49B | 6.27B | 8.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 237.00M | 310.00M | 246.00M | 412.00M | 460.00M | 228.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.03B | 4.70B | 4.12B | 4.11B | 3.25B | 4.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.33B | 6.33B | 6.11B | 6.23B | 5.26B | 7.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.85B | 1.86B | 1.60B | 1.27B | 1.01B | 1.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 457.00M | 329.00M | 15.00M | -851.00M | 311.00M | 452.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.03B | 986.00M | 804.00M | 682.00M | 832.00M | 721.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -532.00M | -616.00M | -702.00M | -1.50B | 245.00M | -277.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -456.00M | -339.00M | -222.00M | 761.00M | -862.00M | -2.23B |
XPO Technical Analysis
Negative
225.02
Price Trends
203.71
Negative
187.48
Positive
160.21
Positive
Market Momentum
-2.11
Positive
44.00
Neutral
45.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XPO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 225.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 211.40, above the 50-day MA of 203.71, and above the 200-day MA of 160.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XPO.
XPO Risk Analysis
XPO disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. XPO reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
XPO Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $20.33B | 20.83 | 36.71% | 1.02% | 1.13% | 2.62% | |
73 Outperform | $24.73B | 35.63 | 17.30% | 0.89% | 0.58% | 17.20% | |
70 Outperform | $5.97B | 33.75 | 14.64% | 2.56% | -0.79% | -28.21% | |
68 Neutral | $2.28B | 18.11 | 6.30% | 1.14% | -5.79% | -1.57% | |
64 Neutral | $23.98B | 56.34 | 19.04% | ― | 3.63% | -11.81% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $19.28B | 33.78 | 33.32% | 1.51% | -6.68% | 18.19% |
* Industrials Sector Average
XPO
XPO
200.46
74.77
59.49%
CHRW
CH Robinson
169.72
71.50
72.80%
EXPD
Expeditors International
156.77
40.05
34.32%
HUBG
Hub Group
38.17
2.94
8.35%
JBHT
JB Hunt
261.46
116.62
80.52%
LSTR
Landstar System
179.11
38.51
27.39%
XPO Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
XPO Highlights Strong Q1 2026 LTL Margin Expansion
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, XPO released an investor slide deck detailing first-quarter 2026 results that showed strong year-on-year growth in revenue, earnings and margins, particularly in its North American LTL business. For Q1 2026, revenue reached $2.1...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
XPO Reports Mixed February LTL Tonnage and Shipment Trends
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, XPO reported preliminary operating metrics for its North American less-than-truckload segment for February 2026, showing LTL tonnage per day up 0.2% year over year. The modest tonnage gain reflected a 3.0% increase in shipments p...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
XPO Highlights Strong Q4 2025 LTL Margin Expansion
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, XPO released an investor slide presentation providing an overview of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 performance, highlighting significant margin and earnings expansion in its North American LTL business despite a histor...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.