GXO Logistics (GXO)
NYSE:GXO
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GXO Logistics
(NYSE:GXO)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$49.00
▼(-7.69% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening financial quality—especially the 2025 collapse in operating/free cash flow and sharply compressed margins—alongside a demanding valuation (very high P/E). These are partially offset by constructive 2026 guidance and strong new-business momentum from the latest earnings call, while technicals remain weak with the stock below key short-term moving averages.
Positive Factors
Scale and multi-year revenue growth
GXO’s doubling of revenue since 2020 and record 2025 topline establish durable scale and diversification across customers and geographies. Large scale improves negotiating leverage, spreads fixed costs, and supports investment in automation and specialized vertical capabilities that sustain long-term competitiveness.
Negative Factors
2025 cash generation collapse
A dramatic fall in operating and free cash flow undermines financial flexibility: it raises questions about working-capital management, timing of collections and payments, and capacity to self-fund automation or absorb shocks. Persistent cash volatility would constrain capital allocation and increase refinancing risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale and multi-year revenue growth
GXO’s doubling of revenue since 2020 and record 2025 topline establish durable scale and diversification across customers and geographies. Large scale improves negotiating leverage, spreads fixed costs, and supports investment in automation and specialized vertical capabilities that sustain long-term competitiveness.
Read all positive factors
GXO Logistics (GXO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.09B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)190.3
Beta (1Y)1.14
Revenue Growth16.94%
EPS Growth-14.01%
CountryUS
Employees150,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.87
Shares Outstanding114,713,580
10 Day Avg. Volume1,261,120
30 Day Avg. Volume1,244,238
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.54
Price to Book (P/B)2.04
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio55.36K
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.39
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$70.15Price Target Upside32.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)3.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.95B
GXO Logistics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GXO Logistics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services worldwide. The company provides warehousing and distribution, order fulfilment, e-commerce, and other supply chain services, as well as reverse logistics or returns m...
How the Company Makes Money
GXO primarily makes money by providing contract logistics services under multi-year customer agreements, generating revenue from operating and managing dedicated or shared warehousing and fulfillment sites. Its core revenue streams are (1) warehou...
GXO Logistics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales by region (for example North America, Europe, Asia), revealing where GXO earns most of its business and how exposed it is to regional slowdowns, currency moves, or regulatory changes. Shows whether growth is coming from core, higher-margin markets or from expansion into new regions, and helps assess geographic diversification and the company’s sensitivity to local economic cycles.
Breaks down sales by region (for example North America, Europe, Asia), revealing where GXO earns most of its business and how exposed it is to regional slowdowns, currency moves, or regulatory changes. Shows whether growth is coming from core, higher-margin markets or from expansion into new regions, and helps assess geographic diversification and the company’s sensitivity to local economic cycles.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGXO Logistics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive operational and financial momentum with record revenue, record adjusted EBITDA, strong new business wins, growing pipeline, improving leverage, and clear technology/automation roadmaps. Management provided conservative 2026 guidance that balances acceleration in organic growth and EPS (midpoint guidance shows meaningful EPS growth) with ongoing investments and integration work that will temper near-term margin expansion. Key near-term risks include modest organic growth rates, regionally softer volumes (Europe/UK), and the timing of integration and technology deployments, but the balance of record results, secured new business, and a credible pathway for margin improvement supports an overall constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Q4 2025 record revenue of $3.5 billion (up 7.9% YoY; 3.5% organic) and record Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $255 million. Full-year 2025 record revenue of $13.2 billion (up 12.5% YoY; 3.9% organic) and record full-year adjusted EBITDA of $881 million (up 8% YoY).
Negative Updates
Modest Organic Growth Rates
Organic growth remains modest: 3.5% organic growth in Q4 and 3.9% organic growth for full-year 2025. Management noted Q4 organic was a bit light versus expectations and 2026 guidance assumes conservative, flat volumes in existing operations.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Q4 2025 record revenue of $3.5 billion (up 7.9% YoY; 3.5% organic) and record Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $255 million. Full-year 2025 record revenue of $13.2 billion (up 12.5% YoY; 3.9% organic) and record full-year adjusted EBITDA of $881 million (up 8% YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
GXO's 2026 guidance calls for organic revenue growth of 4–5%, adjusted EBITDA of $930–$970 million (≈+8% at the midpoint) with implied EBITDA margin expansion of ~20 basis points, adjusted diluted EPS of $2.85–$3.15 (≈+20% at the midpoint), and adjusted EBITDA‑to‑free‑cash‑flow conversion of 30–40%. Management is assuming flat volumes and steady retention/inflation pass‑through, and already has $774 million of incremental new‑business revenue secured for 2026 (up >20% versus this time last year) backed by a $2.3 billion sales pipeline (cited as ≈$2.5B today). The plan is supported by operational levers—Wincanton run‑rate cost synergies of $60 million by 2026, scaling GXO IQ to >50 sites, nearly 20,000 robots (plus humanoid pilots) by 2026—and continued focus on productivity, disciplined capex and working‑capital management to drive the stated targets.GXO Logistics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 13.18B | 11.71B | 9.78B | 8.99B | 7.94B |
| Gross Profit | 1.53B | 1.44B | 1.38B | 1.22B | 968.00M |
| EBITDA | 694.00M | 664.00M | 680.00M | 622.00M | 509.00M |
| Net Income | 32.00M | 134.00M | 229.00M | 197.00M | 153.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.26B | 11.27B | 9.51B | 9.22B | 7.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 854.00M | 413.00M | 468.00M | 495.00M | 333.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.90B | 5.18B | 4.09B | 4.22B | 2.81B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.25B | 8.23B | 6.56B | 6.54B | 4.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.98B | 3.00B | 2.91B | 2.65B | 2.35B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 110.00K | 190.00M | 284.00M | 200.00M | 205.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 434.00K | 549.00M | 558.00M | 542.00M | 455.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -196.00K | -1.16B | -410.00M | -1.15B | -207.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 111.00K | 636.00M | -186.00M | 787.00M | -241.00M |
GXO Logistics Technical Analysis
Neutral
53.08
Price Trends
57.41
Negative
55.05
Negative
53.40
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.76
Negative
46.38
Neutral
79.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GXO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 53.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.52, below the 50-day MA of 57.41, and below the 200-day MA of 53.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GXO.
GXO Logistics Risk Analysis
GXO Logistics disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GXO Logistics reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GXO Logistics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $20.33B | 31.73 | 16.33% | 0.89% | -1.60% | 4.87% | |
68 Neutral | $86.29B | 22.26 | 15.76% | 1.94% | 3.09% | 14.94% | |
66 Neutral | $19.47B | 24.87 | 35.57% | 1.02% | 12.54% | 19.59% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $23.49B | 50.75 | 17.81% | ― | -0.30% | -11.02% | |
61 Neutral | $19.91B | 32.93 | 32.52% | 1.51% | -7.08% | 71.39% | |
50 Neutral | $6.09B | 190.29 | 1.09% | ― | 16.94% | -14.01% |
* Industrials Sector Average
GXO
GXO Logistics
53.08
18.96
55.57%
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GXO Logistics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
GXO Logistics Appoints New Chief Financial Officer Suchinski
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
On March 3, 2026, GXO’s board appointed veteran finance executive Mark Suchinski as chief financial officer, effective April 1, 2026, as part of CEO Patrick Kelleher’s ongoing effort since August 2025 to complete a strengthened leaders...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
GXO Logistics Highlights 2025 Results and Non-GAAP Metrics
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, GXO Logistics, Inc. published a slide deck detailing its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, alongside extensive disclosures on its use of non-GAAP metrics such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, free cash flow and orga...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.