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GXO Logistics
(NYSE:GXO)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$48.00
▼(-18.35% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/23/26
The score is held back primarily by weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a stretched valuation (very high P/E). Offsetting these are improving—but still low-margin—financial performance and a notably upbeat earnings call with raised 2026 guidance and strong commercial momentum; recent corporate events are modestly positive.
Positive Factors
Commercial momentum & pipeline
A large, multi-billion dollar sales pipeline and already secured incremental revenue provide durable revenue visibility. Multi-year contract wins and growth in strategic verticals reduce near-term churn risk and support steady top-line expansion and capacity planning over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Thin and volatile profitability
Sub-1% net margins reflect structural pressure in contract logistics from labor, occupancy and competitive pricing. Even with revenue scale, low profitability limits reinvestment, makes earnings sensitive to volume swings and automation payback timing, and keeps return metrics modest over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Commercial momentum & pipeline
A large, multi-billion dollar sales pipeline and already secured incremental revenue provide durable revenue visibility. Multi-year contract wins and growth in strategic verticals reduce near-term churn risk and support steady top-line expansion and capacity planning over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
GXO Logistics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales by region (for example North America, Europe, Asia), revealing where GXO earns most of its business and how exposed it is to regional slowdowns, currency moves, or regulatory changes. Shows whether growth is coming from core, higher-margin markets or from expansion into new regions, and helps assess geographic diversification and the company’s sensitivity to local economic cycles.
Breaks down sales by region (for example North America, Europe, Asia), revealing where GXO earns most of its business and how exposed it is to regional slowdowns, currency moves, or regulatory changes. Shows whether growth is coming from core, higher-margin markets or from expansion into new regions, and helps assess geographic diversification and the company’s sensitivity to local economic cycles.
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The Fly
The FlyGXO Logistics (GXO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.98B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.31M
Price to Earnings (P/E)44.6
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth10.38%
EPS Growth84.52%
CountryUS
Employees150,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.16
Shares Outstanding115,048,590
10 Day Avg. Volume1,309,354
30 Day Avg. Volume1,312,963
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.51
Price to Book (P/B)2.04
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio55.36K
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.79
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.24
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.59
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$71.13Price Target Upside20.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)3.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.01B
GXO Logistics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GXO Logistics, Inc., together with its associated entities, delivers a full range of logistics solutions globally. The company's services include warehousing, distribution, order fulfillment, specialized e-commerce support, and various other suppl...
How the Company Makes Money
GXO primarily makes money by providing contract logistics services under multi-year customer agreements, generating revenue from operating and managing dedicated or shared warehousing and fulfillment sites. Its core revenue streams are (1) warehou...
GXO Logistics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: double-digit revenue growth, significant EBITDA and EPS expansion, a record pipeline and meaningful automation/AI rollout, coupled with upgraded EBITDA and EPS guidance. Negatives were limited to seasonal free cash flow outflow, relatively flat volumes (with softer retail/consumer mix), timing risk for some longer-term ramped revenues, deferred contract termination costs, and competitive noise from Amazon’s market moves. Overall the positives (robust growth metrics, profitable leverage, record pipeline and strategic initiatives) materially outweigh the identified risks.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Reported revenue of $3.3 billion in Q1 FY2026, up 10.8% year-over-year, driven by contributions from every region and 4.1% organic revenue growth.
Negative Updates
Free Cash Flow Outflow and Seasonal Cash Dynamics
Free cash flow was an outflow of $31 million in Q1 (management characterized this as in line with typical seasonality), resulting in modest operating cash flow of $31 million for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Reported revenue of $3.3 billion in Q1 FY2026, up 10.8% year-over-year, driven by contributions from every region and 4.1% organic revenue growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
GXO raised full‑year 2026 guidance after a strong Q1: management maintained organic revenue growth of 4–5% and raised adjusted EBITDA to $935–$975 million and adjusted diluted EPS to $2.90–$3.20 (≈+22% at the midpoint), while maintaining free cash flow conversion of 30–40%. In Q1 the company delivered $3.3 billion of revenue (+10.8% YoY; organic +4.1%), adjusted EBITDA of $200 million (+22.7%; margin 6.1%, +60 bps), adjusted net income $58 million (+70.6%), adjusted diluted EPS $0.50 (+72.4%), net income $5 million, operating cash flow $31 million and free cash flow outflow of $31 million. Commercial momentum underpins the outlook: $227 million of Q1 new wins, a record $2.7 billion pipeline, $870 million of incremental new‑business revenue already secured for 2026 (up 19% YoY), a target of >50 GXO IQ sites by year‑end, Wincanton run‑rate synergies of $60 million by end‑2026, and a strong balance sheet with $794 million cash, $1.6 billion liquidity and 2.5x leverage.GXO Logistics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.50B | 13.18B | 11.71B | 9.78B | 8.99B | 7.94B |
| Gross Profit | 1.71B | 1.53B | 1.44B | 1.38B | 1.22B | 968.00M |
| EBITDA | 786.97M | 694.00M | 664.00M | 680.00M | 622.00M | 509.00M |
| Net Income | 132.00M | 32.00M | 134.00M | 229.00M | 197.00M | 153.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.19B | 12.26B | 11.27B | 9.51B | 9.22B | 7.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 794.00M | 854.00M | 413.00M | 468.00M | 495.00M | 333.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.96B | 7.90B | 5.18B | 4.09B | 4.22B | 2.81B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.19B | 9.25B | 8.23B | 6.56B | 6.54B | 4.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.97B | 2.98B | 3.00B | 2.91B | 2.65B | 2.35B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 427.70M | 110.00K | 190.00M | 284.00M | 200.00M | 205.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 405.03M | 434.00K | 549.00M | 558.00M | 542.00M | 455.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -119.06M | -196.00K | -1.16B | -410.00M | -1.15B | -207.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 176.97M | 111.00K | 636.00M | -186.00M | 787.00M | -241.00M |
GXO Logistics Technical Analysis
Positive
58.79
Price Trends
50.59
Positive
53.88
Negative
53.69
Negative
Market Momentum
0.26
Negative
57.90
Neutral
78.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GXO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.81, above the 50-day MA of 50.59, and above the 200-day MA of 53.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GXO.
GXO Logistics Risk Analysis
GXO Logistics disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GXO Logistics reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GXO Logistics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $21.92B | 26.98 | 36.71% | 1.02% | 1.13% | 2.62% | |
73 Outperform | $26.95B | 44.31 | 17.30% | 0.89% | 0.58% | 17.20% | |
70 Outperform | $74.68B | 17.05 | 15.76% | 1.94% | 7.73% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $24.23B | 69.94 | 19.04% | ― | 3.63% | -11.81% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $22.38B | 37.97 | 33.32% | 1.51% | -6.68% | 18.19% | |
56 Neutral | $5.98B | 44.60 | 4.46% | ― | 10.38% | 84.52% |
* Industrials Sector Average
GXO
GXO Logistics
51.95
0.90
1.76%
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96.73%
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FDX
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313.00
122.46
64.27%
JBHT
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285.83
134.41
88.77%
GXO Logistics Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
GXO Logistics Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Pay
Positive
May 22, 2026
GXO Logistics, Inc. held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders on May 20, 2026, where shareholders elected ten directors to serve until the 2027 annual meeting or until their successors are in place. The vote results showed strong support for mo...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
GXO Logistics Highlights Q1 2026 Non-GAAP Performance Metrics
Neutral
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, GXO Logistics released a slide presentation detailing its first-quarter 2026 results and its preferred suite of non-GAAP performance measures, such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, organic revenue growth, free cash flow and return...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
GXO Logistics Appoints New Chief Financial Officer Suchinski
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
On March 3, 2026, GXO’s board appointed veteran finance executive Mark Suchinski as chief financial officer, effective April 1, 2026, as part of CEO Patrick Kelleher’s ongoing effort since August 2025 to complete a strengthened leaders...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.