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GXO Logistics (GXO)
NYSE:GXO
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GXO Logistics (GXO) AI Stock Analysis

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GXO

GXO Logistics

(NYSE:GXO)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$55.00
▲(5.32% Upside)
GXO Logistics' overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive corporate events. The company shows solid revenue growth and cash flow generation, though profitability challenges and high leverage are concerns. Technical indicators suggest mixed momentum, and the high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation. Positive earnings call highlights and strategic corporate events support a promising outlook.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
GXO came in above forecast and consensus expectations as core business trends accelerated and Wincanton synergies set up for incremental margin growth.
Revenue Growth
GXO reported strong organic growth with volumes driving the strength and pricing holding steady.
Strategic Initiatives
GXO is expecting significant revenue synergies from the Wincanton integration and has positive expectations for large-scale wins in Aerospace & Defense RFPs in Europe.
Negative Factors
Cost Management
Margin visibility remains somewhat limited in the near term due to elevated operating costs and external volatility.
Leadership Changes
Management announced CFO departure, widening the C-suite refresh, which was unexpected.

GXO Logistics (GXO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

GXO Logistics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGXO Logistics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services worldwide. The company provides warehousing and distribution, order fulfilment, e-commerce, and other supply chain services, as well as reverse logistics or returns management services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated in approximately 906 facilities. The company serves various customers in the e-commerce, omnichannel retail, consumer technology, food and beverage, industrial and manufacturing, and consumer packaged goods industries. GXO Logistics, Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut.
How the Company Makes MoneyGXO Logistics generates revenue primarily through its contract logistics services. The company enters into agreements with businesses to manage their logistics operations, which include warehousing, transportation, and distribution services. GXO's revenue model is largely based on long-term contracts, where customers pay for the logistics solutions provided. The company benefits from significant partnerships with major retailers and manufacturers, which contribute to a steady stream of income. Additionally, GXO leverages technology and automation in its operations, allowing it to offer value-added services and maintain competitiveness, further enhancing its revenue potential.

GXO Logistics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 6.61%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive outlook for GXO, with strong financial performance, strategic acquisitions, and technological advancements driving growth. Despite minor challenges such as CapEx reduction and leadership transitions, the company remains well-positioned for future expansion.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue and Growth
GXO delivered record revenue of $3.3 billion, up 16% year-over-year, with 6% organic growth. Adjusted EBITDA was $212 million, up 13% year-over-year.
New Business Wins and Strategic Partnerships
New business wins of $307 million, up 13% year-over-year, with notable contracts with AkzoNobel, Boeing, L'Oreal, Nestle, Pratt & Whitney, and Thermo Fisher.
Raised Full Year Guidance
GXO increased full year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $865 million to $885 million, reflecting a $25 million increase from initial estimates.
Successful Launch of GXO IQ Platform
GXO launched GXO IQ, a software platform designed with Google Cloud to enhance supply chain operations using AI.
Strong Sales Pipeline and Customer Retention
GXO's sales pipeline is robust at $2.4 billion, and customer satisfaction scores are at an all-time high, with a mid-90s retention rate.
Strategic Acquisition of Wincanton
Regulatory approval received for the acquisition of Wincanton, unlocking growth opportunities in industrial and aerospace markets with expected synergies of $60 million by 2026.
Investment-Grade Credit Rating
Moody's upgraded GXO's credit rating, giving them investment-grade ratings from all three major agencies for the first time since the spin.
Negative Updates
CapEx Reduction
CapEx in the second quarter was $41 million, down from $84 million in Q2 of last year, reflecting a more cautious approach to capital expenditure.
CFO Transition
Baris Oran announced plans to step down from his role as Chief Financial Officer, creating a period of transition for the company.
Divestiture Requirement for Wincanton Acquisition
GXO agreed to dispose of approximately 5% of the Wincanton business as part of regulatory approval, though it is not expected to be material.
Company Guidance
During the GXO Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, GXO announced significant metrics reflecting its financial performance and strategic initiatives. The company reported record revenue of $3.3 billion, marking a 16% year-over-year increase, with organic growth at 6%. Adjusted EBITDA reached $212 million, up 13% from the previous year, and the company raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $865 million to $885 million, which represents a $25 million increase from initial estimates. In addition, GXO's sales pipeline expanded to $2.4 billion, exclusive of contributions from its recent acquisition of Wincanton. The acquisition is expected to unlock $60 million in synergies by the end of 2026 and bolster GXO's presence in the industrial and aerospace sectors. The company also highlighted its ongoing investments in technology, including the launch of GXO IQ, a software platform developed in partnership with Google Cloud. Furthermore, GXO's operational efficiencies, customer satisfaction, and strategic renewals with major clients like H&M and a top U.S. retailer underscore its robust performance and optimistic outlook.

GXO Logistics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
GXO Logistics demonstrates steady revenue growth and a stable equity position, although profitability and cash flow metrics suggest areas for improvement. The company shows resilience in the logistics sector with potential leverage risks due to high debt levels. Operational efficiencies and improved cash flow management could enhance financial health further.
Income Statement
75
Positive
GXO Logistics shows consistent revenue growth, reaching $12.23 billion in TTM, up from $11.71 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin is approximately 12.72%, and the net profit margin is 0.61%, both indicating moderate profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are 1.75% and 5.65% respectively, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements. Revenue growth is positive, with a notable increase from 2023 to 2024, reflecting strong market performance.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a solid equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.85, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is 2.61%, showing limited return on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio is 33.01%, displaying a stable financial position, though the high total debt level requires monitoring. Overall, the company maintains a stable asset base with potential leverage risks.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
The cash flow statement indicates positive operational cash flow at $528 million for TTM with a free cash flow of $164 million, showing a decrease compared to previous years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 7.04, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.19, which suggests reduced cash available after investments. Cash flow growth needs improvement for stronger liquidity.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.68B11.71B9.78B8.99B7.94B6.20B
Gross Profit1.57B1.86B1.38B1.22B968.00M703.00M
EBITDA688.00M816.00M680.00M697.00M589.00M415.00M
Net Income63.00M134.00M229.00M197.00M153.00M-22.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.34M11.27B9.51B9.22B7.27B6.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments205.00K413.00M468.00M495.00M333.00M328.00M
Total Debt5.56M5.18B4.09B4.22B2.81B2.10B
Total Liabilities8.95B8.23B6.56B6.54B4.88B3.60B
Stockholders Equity2.94B3.00B2.91B2.65B2.35B2.82B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow185.91M190.00M284.00M200.00M205.00M111.00M
Operating Cash Flow384.03M549.00M558.00M542.00M455.00M333.00M
Investing Cash Flow-266.00M-1.16B-410.00M-1.15B-207.00M-280.00M
Financing Cash Flow-448.00M636.00M-186.00M787.00M-241.00M67.00M

GXO Logistics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price52.22
Price Trends
50DMA
49.80
Positive
100DMA
44.02
Positive
200DMA
45.30
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.90
Negative
RSI
55.98
Neutral
STOCH
67.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GXO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 52.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.28, above the 50-day MA of 49.80, and above the 200-day MA of 45.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.90 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GXO.

GXO Logistics Risk Analysis

GXO Logistics disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GXO Logistics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

GXO Logistics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$6.11B99.172.16%22.39%-54.71%
72
Outperform
$16.48B19.8139.01%1.26%23.70%31.33%
67
Neutral
$14.52B27.9932.43%2.05%-2.55%59.07%
67
Neutral
$15.48B43.8221.10%-0.11%-4.28%
66
Neutral
$13.80B25.9014.33%1.23%-2.24%-5.43%
63
Neutral
$10.76B16.246.80%2.07%2.60%-16.34%
60
Neutral
$4.46B27.0017.47%2.73%-2.10%-22.19%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GXO
GXO Logistics
52.22
2.20
4.40%
CHRW
CH Robinson
122.80
23.50
23.67%
EXPD
Expeditors International
118.41
-3.07
-2.53%
XPO
XPO
127.92
2.81
2.25%
JBHT
JB Hunt
143.40
-31.59
-18.05%
LSTR
Landstar System
129.88
-54.63
-29.61%

GXO Logistics Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
GXO Logistics CFO Departure Announced
Neutral
Aug 5, 2025

On August 4, 2025, GXO Logistics announced that its Chief Financial Officer, Baris Oran, will depart in March 2026. Mr. Oran will continue his role until a successor is appointed, and upon his departure, he will receive severance payments and outplacement services, with his stock units subject to pro-rated vesting.

The most recent analyst rating on (GXO) stock is a Buy with a $83.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GXO Logistics stock, see the GXO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
GXO Logistics Highlights Financial Performance in New Presentation
Neutral
Aug 5, 2025

On August 5, 2025, GXO Logistics released a slide presentation intended for future investor presentations, highlighting its financial performance and strategic goals. The presentation emphasizes the company’s use of non-GAAP financial measures to provide a clearer picture of its ongoing business operations, aiming to assist investors in comparing performance across periods and assessing business trends. This release is part of GXO’s efforts to maintain transparency with stakeholders and align its financial reporting with strategic objectives, potentially impacting investor confidence and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GXO) stock is a Buy with a $83.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GXO Logistics stock, see the GXO Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
GXO Logistics Appoints New Board Members Amid Changes
Neutral
Jul 31, 2025

On July 29, 2025, GXO Logistics expanded its Board of Directors from nine to ten members, appointing Patrick J. Byrne as an independent director. Byrne, with a rich background in operational transformation and digital transformation at General Electric and other companies, will serve until the 2026 annual meeting. On July 30, 2025, Jason Papastavrou resigned from the Board, and Michael Kneeland was appointed as an independent director. Kneeland, with extensive experience in the equipment rental industry and various board roles, will also serve until the 2026 annual meeting. Both directors will receive an annual cash retainer and restricted stock units for their service.

The most recent analyst rating on (GXO) stock is a Buy with a $70.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GXO Logistics stock, see the GXO Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
GXO Logistics Appoints Patrick Kelleher as New CEO
Positive
Jun 20, 2025

On June 19, 2025, GXO Logistics announced the appointment of Patrick Kelleher as the new CEO, effective August 19, 2025. Kelleher, with 33 years of experience in global supply chain management, previously held senior roles at DHL Supply Chain. His leadership is expected to drive GXO’s growth, leveraging his expertise in engineered solutions, automation, and contract logistics. Kelleher will be based at GXO’s headquarters in Greenwich, Connecticut, succeeding Malcolm Wilson, who is retiring.

The most recent analyst rating on (GXO) stock is a Buy with a $83.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GXO Logistics stock, see the GXO Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsFinancial Disclosures
GXO Logistics Gets UK Approval for Wincanton Acquisition
Positive
Jun 20, 2025

On June 19, 2025, GXO Logistics announced the UK Competition and Markets Authority’s clearance of its acquisition of Wincanton, subject to divesting some grocery contracts. This acquisition is expected to enhance GXO’s offerings in the UK and Ireland, with integration commencing in the third quarter. Consequently, GXO raised its full-year 2025 guidance for organic revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted diluted EPS, reflecting improved volumes and productivity gains.

The most recent analyst rating on (GXO) stock is a Buy with a $83.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GXO Logistics stock, see the GXO Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
GXO Logistics Stockholders Elect Board Members in 2025
Neutral
May 15, 2025

The 2025 annual meeting of GXO Logistics‘ stockholders took place on May 13, 2025. During the meeting, stockholders elected nine board members, ratified KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and approved the executive compensation plan. These decisions are expected to influence the company’s governance and financial oversight in the coming year.

The most recent analyst rating on (GXO) stock is a Buy with a $83.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GXO Logistics stock, see the GXO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
GXO Logistics Releases Q1 2025 Investor Presentation
Neutral
May 7, 2025

On May 7, 2025, GXO Logistics released a slide presentation to be used in future investor presentations, detailing their first quarter 2025 results. The presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures to provide insights into the company’s ongoing business operations, emphasizing metrics like adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. These measures are intended to assist investors in analyzing trends and comparing performance across periods, although they are not directly comparable to GAAP measures. The release highlights the company’s strategic focus on enhancing shareholder value through effective capital deployment, despite challenges such as economic conditions and supply chain issues.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2025