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FedEx
(NYSE:FDX)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$349.00
▼(-11.06% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/25/26
FDX scores well primarily on improving financial fundamentals (stronger margins, higher cash flow, and sharply reduced leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook with upbeat CY2026 revenue/EPS guidance supported by pricing/yield momentum and transformation savings. Offsetting this, technical indicators are mixed with softer near-term momentum, and valuation is reasonable but not especially cheap, keeping the overall score in the solid-but-not-top-tier range.
Positive Factors
Debt reduction & stronger leverage
Material deleveraging (debt-to-equity ~0.18 and total debt meaningfully reduced) materially improves financial flexibility. Lower leverage cuts interest sensitivity, enables steadier capital allocation for capex, dividends and buybacks, and reduces insolvency risk during economic slowdowns.
Negative Factors
FedEx Freight underperformance
Persistent weakness in the Freight business was a near-term consolidated headwind and contributed materially to earnings pressure. Even after the spin, stranded costs, transitional contracts and underperformance could keep corporate earnings and margin recovery more gradual over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Debt reduction & stronger leverage
Material deleveraging (debt-to-equity ~0.18 and total debt meaningfully reduced) materially improves financial flexibility. Lower leverage cuts interest sensitivity, enables steadier capital allocation for capex, dividends and buybacks, and reduces insolvency risk during economic slowdowns.
Read all positive factors
FedEx Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Expense Breakdown
Analyzes various cost components such as transportation, salaries, and fuel, providing insight into operational efficiency and cost management strategies.
Analyzes various cost components such as transportation, salaries, and fuel, providing insight into operational efficiency and cost management strategies.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFedEx (FDX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$77.83B
Dividend Yield1.94%
Average Volume (3M)1.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.7
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth7.73%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees306,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)18.36
Shares Outstanding238,606,750
10 Day Avg. Volume1,825,152
30 Day Avg. Volume1,648,099
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.95
Price to Book (P/B)2.56
Price to Sales (P/S)0.85
P/FCF Ratio15.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.53
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$367.61Price Target Upside-6.31% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)22.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)$98.51B
FedEx Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
FedEx Corporation is a prominent global entity that delivers an extensive array of services encompassing transportation, e-commerce solutions, and diverse business support, catering to clients both within the United States and across international...
How the Company Makes Money
FedEx primarily makes money by charging businesses and consumers to transport packages and freight domestically and internationally, and by selling logistics solutions that manage or optimize customers’ supply chains.
Key revenue streams include:...
FedEx Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 23, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed materially positive operating and financial momentum driven by FedEx Express: double-digit revenue/yield strength in Q4, margin expansion at FEC, strong free cash flow, an improved outlook for the transition year, progress on Network 2.0 and transformation savings, and solid execution in high-value verticals (health care, data center, industrial). Offsetting factors include underperformance and margin pressure from FedEx Freight (now spun off), MD-11 grounding and related retirements, notable inflationary and labor-related cost headwinds (including variable compensation and pilot agreement impacts), stranded costs from the spin, and pockets of volume decline in lower-yield segments. On balance, the company emphasized durable profitable growth, solid cash generation, and a confident outlook for CY2026 and CY2029 targets.Positive Updates
Consolidated Revenue and Operating Income Growth
Full-year FY2026 consolidated revenue and adjusted operating income both grew 8% year-over-year; consolidated adjusted operating income improved $491 million (8%) for the full year.
Negative Updates
FedEx Freight Performance Drag
FedEx Freight Q4 adjusted operating income declined by $114 million and adjusted operating margin contracted ~570 basis points; Freight results created nearly a $400 million headwind to consolidated adjusted operating income for FY2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Revenue and Operating Income Growth
Full-year FY2026 consolidated revenue and adjusted operating income both grew 8% year-over-year; consolidated adjusted operating income improved $491 million (8%) for the full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
FedEx guided to calendar‑year 2026 consolidated revenue growth of ~11% (CY25 revenue baseline ≈ $82B) including ~3 percentage points of fuel‑surcharge benefit, and adjusted EPS of $16.90–$18.10 (midpoint $17.50), implying ~20% adjusted EPS growth for the June–Dec transition period; they expect ~10% revenue growth in the June–Dec stub with consolidated adjusted operating income of $3.8B (up ~19% YoY) and an estimated $11.30 of adjusted EPS for that period. Management’s CY26 bridge targets continuing‑operations adjusted operating income of $5.8B (midpoint) from a CY25 starting point of ~$5.0B that includes ~$350M of stranded costs, and assumes FEC volume net tailwind of ~$600M, FEC yield tailwind of ~$3.7B, base expense headwind of ~$2.6B, a variable‑comp headwind of ~$800M (only ~$100M incremental in the remaining 7 months), a ~$200M pilot‑agreement headwind and a ~$100M benefit from removing stranded costs (with ~30% of remaining stranded costs to be removed this year). They plan CY26 CapEx ≈ $3.9B (FY26 CapEx was $3.8B, CapEx/revenue ~4%), expect to contribute ~$475M to pensions (105% funded as of May 31), reported FY26 adjusted free cash flow of $4.7B and reaffirmed a $6B adjusted FCF target for CY29, and indicated capital actions including a 5% dividend increase (post‑spin) and up to $1B of opportunistic share repurchases in the remainder of CY26.FedEx Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | May 2025 | May 2024 | May 2023 | May 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 94.72B | 87.93B | 87.69B | 90.16B | 93.51B |
| Gross Profit | 20.62B | 19.00B | 18.95B | 19.17B | 20.17B |
| EBITDA | 10.99B | 10.49B | 10.87B | 10.23B | 9.55B |
| Net Income | 4.43B | 4.09B | 4.33B | 3.97B | 3.83B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 98.94B | 87.63B | 87.01B | 87.11B | 85.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.31B | 5.57B | 6.50B | 6.86B | 6.90B |
| Total Debt | 42.94B | 37.42B | 37.72B | 38.33B | 37.19B |
| Total Liabilities | 67.29B | 59.55B | 59.42B | 61.05B | 61.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 31.65B | 28.07B | 27.58B | 26.09B | 24.94B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.12B | 2.98B | 3.14B | 2.64B | 3.07B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.93B | 7.04B | 8.31B | 8.81B | 9.83B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.91B | -4.09B | -5.20B | -6.17B | -6.82B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.75B | -4.02B | -3.43B | -2.60B | -3.02B |
FedEx Technical Analysis
Neutral
392.38
Price Trends
316.95
Negative
306.18
Positive
261.94
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.72
Positive
44.62
Neutral
26.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FDX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 392.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 325.29, above the 50-day MA of 316.95, and above the 200-day MA of 261.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FDX.
FedEx Risk Analysis
FedEx disclosed 3 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. FedEx reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
FedEx Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $21.92B | 26.98 | 36.71% | 1.02% | 1.13% | 2.62% | |
70 Outperform | $77.83B | 17.68 | 15.76% | 1.94% | 7.73% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $17.28B | 13.49 | 14.20% | 2.98% | 15.87% | 1.18% | |
64 Neutral | $24.23B | 69.94 | 19.04% | ― | 3.63% | -11.81% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $22.38B | 37.97 | 33.32% | 1.51% | -6.68% | 18.19% | |
58 Neutral | $94.06B | 17.88 | 33.03% | 6.55% | -2.59% | -9.78% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FDX
FedEx
313.00
122.46
64.27%
CHRW
CH Robinson
189.85
93.35
96.73%
EXPD
Expeditors International
167.57
50.41
43.03%
XPO
XPO
206.33
74.20
56.16%
UPS
United Parcel
110.66
13.23
13.58%
ZTO
ZTO Express
23.08
5.57
31.81%
FedEx Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
FedEx Launches $4.15 Billion Debt Tender Offers
Positive
Jun 25, 2026
On June 25, 2026, FedEx announced the launch of cash tender offers to repurchase up to $4.15 billion of its outstanding notes across multiple maturities, with an early tender deadline of July 9 and final expiration on July 24, 2026. The buyback pr...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
FedEx Adds Independent Director to Lead Audit Oversight
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
On June 8, 2026, FedEx Corp. appointed former Deloitte vice chairman and senior partner Mark A. Edmunds to its board of directors, naming him chair of the Audit and Finance Committee and a member of the Cyber and Technology Oversight Committee. Ed...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
FedEx Completes Spin-Off of FedEx Freight Unit
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
On June 1, 2026, FedEx completed the spin-off of FedEx Freight Holding Company, establishing it as an independent, publicly traded less-than-truckload carrier focused on North America. FedEx Freight common stock began regular-way trading that day ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
FedEx Redeems Euro Notes, Optimizing Long-Term Debt Profile
Positive
May 22, 2026
FedEx said that on May 13, 2026 it notified holders of its €354.9 million 1.300% Notes due 2031 that the securities will be fully redeemed on May 28, 2026, at a price based on the higher of par or a make-whole amount tied to a comparable gov...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesDividendsM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FedEx advances spin-off of FedEx Freight unit
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 11 and May 13, 2026, FedEx advanced the planned spin-off of its FedEx Freight unit, as the SEC declared effective FedEx Freight’s Form 10 registration and the FedEx board approved a pro rata dividend of 80.1% of FedEx Freight’s ...
Executive/Board Changes
FedEx Announces CFO Transition and Interim Leadership Appointment
Neutral
Apr 13, 2026
On April 13, 2026, FedEx announced that Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer John W. Dietrich will step down from the CFO role on June 1, 2026 and leave the company on July 31, 2026, with the company emphasizing that his departure ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.