FedEx (FDX)
NYSE:FDX
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FedEx
(NYSE:FDX)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$381.00
▲(2.03% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/27/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (improving margins and strong free-cash-flow generation) and a constructive earnings update (raised FY26 EPS and revenue growth guidance with continued transformation progress). These positives are tempered by weaker near-term technical momentum and balance-sheet leverage/data-confidence concerns, with valuation and dividend offering only moderate support.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained OCF (~$8.2B TTM) and a sharp FCF increase (~$4.4B, +52.9%) give FedEx durable internal funding for network investments, disciplined capex, and share actions. Robust cash conversion supports the company’s multi-year FCF target and reduces reliance on external financing during cycles.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage
A debt-heavy capital structure (debt-to-equity ~1.33) is typical for capital-intensive logistics but limits financial flexibility if volumes soften. Elevated leverage increases interest sensitivity, constrains strategic optionality, and raises refinancing and covenant risk during downturns or elevated fuel/geo-political cost periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained OCF (~$8.2B TTM) and a sharp FCF increase (~$4.4B, +52.9%) give FedEx durable internal funding for network investments, disciplined capex, and share actions. Robust cash conversion supports the company’s multi-year FCF target and reduces reliance on external financing during cycles.
Read all positive factors
FedEx (FDX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$89.95B
Dividend Yield1.94%
Average Volume (3M)1.93M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.3
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth3.09%
EPS Growth14.94%
CountryUS
Employees306,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.25
Shares Outstanding238,606,750
10 Day Avg. Volume1,435,802
30 Day Avg. Volume1,932,852
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.71
Price to Book (P/B)1.89
Price to Sales (P/S)0.60
P/FCF Ratio17.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.38
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$404.35Price Target Upside8.28% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering24
EPS Forecast (FY)19.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$93.56B
FedEx Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
FedEx Corporation provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. The company's FedEx Express segment offers express transportation, small-package ground delivery, and freight transportation ser...
How the Company Makes Money
FedEx makes money primarily by charging customers to move packages and freight through its transportation networks and by providing logistics services. Its major revenue streams include: (1) Express shipping—time-definite, often air-enabled domest...
FedEx Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows revenue distribution across different business units, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability.
Shows revenue distribution across different business units, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFedEx Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 19, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution at FEC with double-digit revenue growth, margin expansion, improved yields, raised EPS guidance and meaningful progress on Network 2.0, cost savings and product innovation—leading to an upgraded outlook and improved cash-flow/capex discipline. Offsetting this are persistent challenges in FedEx Freight (revenue and profit pressure, separation costs), MD-11 grounding charges, sizable variable compensation and external headwinds from global trade policy and geopolitical uncertainty. On balance, the positive operational momentum, guidance raise, and transformation progress outweighed the near-term Freight and other headwinds.Positive Updates
Consolidated Revenue Growth
Consolidated revenue increased 8% year-over-year in Q3, driven by yield and volume strength across nearly all package services; FY '26 consolidated revenue growth outlook raised to 6%–6.5% (prior 5%–6%).
Negative Updates
FedEx Freight Revenue and Profit Pressure
FedEx Freight revenue declined 5% year-over-year with shipments down ~6%; FedEx Freight adjusted operating income declined $127 million YoY. Company now expects FY '26 Freight revenue down low single digits and Q4 revenue flat to down slightly, with an incremental $400 million decline in Freight adjusted operating income vs prior expectations.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Revenue Growth
Consolidated revenue increased 8% year-over-year in Q3, driven by yield and volume strength across nearly all package services; FY '26 consolidated revenue growth outlook raised to 6%–6.5% (prior 5%–6%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company raised FY‑2026 adjusted EPS to $19.30–$20.10 (prior $17.80–$19.00) with the midpoint implying Q4 adjusted EPS of about $5.80, and now expects consolidated revenue growth of 6.0%–6.5% for FY‑26 (previously 5%–6%) and 6%–7.5% in Q4; FEC revenue is expected to be roughly +8% at the midpoint for FY‑26 and ~8% in Q4, while FedEx Freight revenue is expected down low single digits for FY‑26 and flat to down slightly in Q4. Management’s midpoint scenario implies full‑year adjusted operating income of $6.5B (up $300M), including a $600M FEC volume tailwind, a $3.2B FEC yield tailwind, a $1.6B assumed base expense increase, a now‑$400M Freight operating income decline (vs. $300M prior), and an $800M variable incentive compensation headwind; MD‑11 grounding impacted Q3 by ~$120M and could be up to ~$55M in Q4. CapEx is capped at no more than $4.1B (aircraft ≤ $1B), adjusted FCF has upside to the prior $3.8B assumption with a $6B 2029 target (ex‑Freight), spin‑off of Freight remains on track for 6/1/2026 (Freight completed a $3.7B debt offering and incurred ~ $60M separation costs not excluded), and the outlook embeds a modest Middle East headwind, a Q4 share count of ~242M (FY‑26 avg ~239M) and an embedded ~$0.10 EPS headwind from higher share count and interest.FedEx Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | May 2025 | May 2024 | May 2023 | May 2022 | May 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 91.93B | 87.93B | 87.69B | 90.16B | 93.51B | 83.79B |
| Gross Profit | 22.44B | 19.00B | 18.95B | 19.17B | 20.17B | 17.79B |
| EBITDA | 10.57B | 10.49B | 10.87B | 10.23B | 9.55B | 11.26B |
| Net Income | 4.48B | 4.09B | 4.33B | 3.97B | 3.83B | 5.23B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 94.73B | 87.63B | 87.01B | 87.11B | 85.99B | 82.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.01B | 5.57B | 6.50B | 6.86B | 6.90B | 7.09B |
| Total Debt | 42.02B | 37.42B | 37.72B | 38.33B | 37.19B | 36.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 64.93B | 59.55B | 59.42B | 61.05B | 61.05B | 58.61B |
| Stockholders Equity | 29.80B | 28.07B | 27.58B | 26.09B | 24.94B | 24.17B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.37B | 2.98B | 3.14B | 2.64B | 3.07B | 4.25B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.18B | 7.04B | 8.31B | 8.81B | 9.83B | 10.13B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.87B | -4.09B | -5.20B | -6.17B | -6.82B | -6.01B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.03B | -4.02B | -3.43B | -2.60B | -3.02B | -2.09B |
FedEx Technical Analysis
Positive
373.43
Price Trends
361.99
Positive
324.27
Positive
278.18
Positive
Market Momentum
2.05
Negative
63.40
Neutral
85.22
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FDX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 373.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 356.42, above the 50-day MA of 361.99, and above the 200-day MA of 278.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FDX.
FedEx Risk Analysis
FedEx disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. FedEx reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
FedEx Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $18.24B | 11.18 | 14.02% | 2.98% | 12.89% | 3.12% | |
68 Neutral | $89.95B | 22.26 | 15.76% | 1.94% | 3.09% | 14.94% | |
66 Neutral | $19.34B | 24.87 | 35.57% | 1.02% | 12.54% | 19.59% | |
66 Neutral | $86.30B | 11.75 | 35.12% | 6.55% | -1.25% | -2.25% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $24.80B | 50.75 | 17.81% | ― | -0.30% | -11.02% | |
61 Neutral | $20.19B | 32.93 | 32.52% | 1.51% | -7.08% | 71.39% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FDX
FedEx
377.00
175.09
86.72%
CHRW
CH Robinson
170.20
81.61
92.12%
EXPD
Expeditors International
144.83
37.87
35.41%
XPO
XPO
211.73
114.44
117.63%
UPS
United Parcel
101.64
11.26
12.46%
ZTO
ZTO Express
24.47
7.34
42.84%
FedEx Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
FedEx Leads Consortium in Strategic InPost Acquisition Bid
Positive
Feb 9, 2026
On February 9, 2026, InPost S.A. and a consortium including FedEx, Advent, AR Investments, and PPF announced a conditional agreement on a recommended all‑cash public offer for all issued and outstanding shares of InPost at €15.60 per s...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
FedEx Freight issues $3.7 billion notes ahead spin-off
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, FedEx Freight Holding Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of FedEx Corporation, issued a total of $3.7 billion in senior unsecured notes across four tranches maturing between 2029 and 2036, with coupons ranging from 4.300% to 5...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
FedEx Announces North American Leadership Changes Amid Restructuring
Neutral
Jan 29, 2026
On January 23, 2026, FedEx Express France unveiled a major transformation programme aimed at modernising and simplifying its domestic French operations to secure long-term competitiveness in a highly price-pressured parcels market, anchored by up ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
FedEx Freight secures new credit facilities for spin-off
Positive
Jan 16, 2026
In preparation for the planned spin-off of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. from FedEx Corporation, FedEx Freight on January 15, 2026 entered into two new credit facilities: a $1.2 billion five-year revolving credit facility and a $600 million ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.