FedEx (FDX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $90.07B
• Dividend Yield: 1.94%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.83M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 3.09%
• EPS Growth: 14.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 306,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 4.82
• Shares Outstanding: 235,122,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,572,888
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,829,958
• PEG Ratio: -4.71
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.36
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.69
• 1Y Price Target: $378.32
• Price Target Upside: -1.40% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 23
• EPS Forecast (FY): 18.65
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $92.71B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $412.00 ▲(7.37% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/10/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (healthy margins and improving free cash flow) and a strong, guidance-supported earnings outlook (raised EPS range and margin expansion). Offsetting factors include technically overextended momentum (very high RSI/Stoch) and only middling valuation support (P/E ~20 with a modest dividend yield).

Positive Factors

Profitability & Cash Generation

FedEx generates strong recurring cash flow and healthy operating margins, shown by robust FCF growth and double-digit cash conversion. Durable cash generation supports capital investment, network upgrades, dividends, and funding of strategic moves like the InPost stake without immediate reliance on equity.

B2B Momentum and Network Optimization

Significant B2B growth diversifies FedEx away from pure consumer parcel cyclicality and yields higher-value contracts (healthcare, automotive). Progress on Network 2.0 (meaningful optimized volume) signals structural cost and service improvements that should sustain margins and competitiveness over the medium term.

Strategic E‑commerce Expansion (InPost Consortium)

A lasting strategic move into European last-mile and locker networks strengthens FedEx's e-commerce footprint and complements its global network. Ownership plus planned arm's-length commercial agreements can create durable channel access, scale in out-of-home delivery, and reduce reliance on third parties.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage & Debt Load

A D/E around 1.34 and recent large note issuances increase interest and refinancing exposure. Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility to absorb cyclical volume drops or fund growth opportunistically, and it raises the company's sensitivity to rising rates and covenant constraints over the medium term.

FedEx Freight Weakness & Spin-off Execution Risk

LTL exposure is cyclical; an expected $300M hit and softer volumes highlight structural demand risk in industrial markets. Preparing Freight as a standalone raises execution and capital-structure risks for both entities, and the spin-off could leave each business more exposed to industry-specific downturns and covenant limitations.

Operational Disruption Risk (MD-11 Grounding)

Fleet reliability and control of air-network assets are core to on-time service economics. The MD-11 grounding demonstrates that operational shocks can produce multi-quarter margin pressure and incremental capital or lease costs, underlining a structural vulnerability in asset-dependent logistics operations.

FedEx Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

FedEx Corporation provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. The company's FedEx Express segment offers express transportation, small-package ground delivery, and freight transportation services; time-critical transportation services; and cross-border enablement, technology, and e-commerce transportation solutions. Its FedEx Ground segment provides day-certain delivery services to businesses and residences. The company's FedEx Freight segment offers less-than-truckload freight transportation services. As of May 31, 2022, this segment had approximately 30,000 vehicles and 400 service centers. Its FedEx Services segment provides sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer service, technical support, billing and collection, and back-office support services. The company's Corporate, Other and Eliminations segment offers integrated supply chain management solutions, specialty transportation, customs brokerage, and global ocean and air freight forwarding services; and document and business services, as well as retail access to its customers for its package transportation businesses. FedEx Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Memphis, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

FedEx generates revenue primarily through its various shipping and logistics services. The FedEx Express segment, which offers time-sensitive overnight shipping services, constitutes a significant portion of its revenue, driven by both domestic and international shipments. FedEx Ground focuses on parcel delivery services for businesses and individuals, capitalizing on the growth of e-commerce. FedEx Freight provides less-than-truckload (LTL) freight services, catering to businesses with larger shipping needs. Additionally, FedEx Logistics offers supply chain management and consulting services, contributing to the company's revenue stream. Strategic partnerships with e-commerce platforms and retailers, along with investments in technology to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience, further bolster FedEx's financial performance.

FedEx Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability metrics (23.24% gross margin; 6.87% EBIT margin; 11.62% EBITDA margin) and solid cash generation (18.99% free cash flow growth) support the score. It is tempered by modest revenue growth (1.70%) and a meaningful leverage profile (1.34 debt-to-equity).

Income Statement

FedEx's income statement shows stable profitability with a gross profit margin of 23.24% and a net profit margin of 4.81% in the TTM period. The revenue growth rate is modest at 1.70%, indicating steady growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 6.87% and 11.62%, respectively, reflecting efficient operations. However, the revenue growth has slowed compared to previous years, which could be a concern if the trend continues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.34, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity is strong at 21.01%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 31.55%, suggesting a solid equity base. However, the company has a significant level of debt, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a robust free cash flow growth rate of 18.99% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.51, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.53, reflecting good cash conversion. Despite these strengths, the company needs to maintain this momentum to ensure long-term sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	May 2025	May 2024	May 2023	May 2022	May 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	90.09B	87.93B	87.69B	90.16B	93.51B	83.79B
Gross Profit	20.93B	19.00B	18.95B	19.17B	20.17B	17.79B
EBITDA	10.47B	10.49B	10.87B	10.23B	9.55B	11.26B
Net Income	4.34B	4.09B	4.33B	3.97B	3.83B	5.23B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	89.18B	87.63B	87.01B	87.11B	85.99B	82.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.57B	5.57B	6.50B	6.86B	6.90B	7.09B
Total Debt	37.77B	37.42B	37.72B	38.33B	37.19B	36.46B
Total Liabilities	61.04B	59.55B	59.42B	61.05B	61.05B	58.61B
Stockholders Equity	28.14B	28.07B	27.58B	26.09B	24.94B	24.17B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.35B	2.98B	3.14B	2.64B	3.07B	4.25B
Operating Cash Flow	8.20B	7.04B	8.31B	8.81B	9.83B	10.13B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.97B	-4.09B	-5.20B	-6.17B	-6.82B	-6.01B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.80B	-4.02B	-3.43B	-2.60B	-3.02B	-2.09B

FedEx Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 383.71
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FDX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 383.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 355.79, above the 50-day MA of 320.91, and above the 200-day MA of 255.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 20.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.57 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FDX.

FedEx Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXPD	80 Outperform	$20.05B	24.35	36.47%	1.02%	12.54%	19.59%
FDX	73 Outperform	$90.07B	21.13	15.87%	1.94%	3.09%	14.94%
ZTO	73 Outperform	$19.26B	16.97	13.83%	2.98%	12.89%	3.12%
UPS	66 Neutral	$98.60B	17.71	33.83%	6.55%	-1.25%	-2.25%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
XPO	63 Neutral	$23.78B	76.88	18.26%	―	-0.30%	-11.02%
CHRW	61 Neutral	$22.05B	38.47	32.91%	1.51%	-7.08%	71.39%

FedEx Corporate Events

FedEx Leads Consortium in Strategic InPost Acquisition Bid

On February 9, 2026, InPost S.A. and a consortium including FedEx, Advent, A&R Investments, and PPF announced a conditional agreement on a recommended all‑cash public offer for all issued and outstanding shares of InPost at €15.60 per share. Following completion, FedEx and Advent would each own 37% of InPost, with A&R Investments holding 16% and PPF 10%, while InPost would continue to operate as a standalone company.

FedEx’s portion of the investment is valued at about $2.6 billion and is expected to be funded through cash on hand, existing or new liquidity sources, or a mix of both. The deal, which remains subject to customary regulatory approvals and closing conditions, is set to be followed by arm’s‑length commercial agreements between FedEx and InPost, positioning both firms to leverage complementary strengths in parcel delivery and e‑commerce logistics.

The most recent analyst rating on (FDX) stock is a Buy with a $406.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FedEx stock, see the FDX Stock Forecast page.

FedEx Freight issues $3.7 billion notes ahead spin-off

On February 5, 2026, FedEx Freight Holding Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of FedEx Corporation, issued a total of $3.7 billion in senior unsecured notes across four tranches maturing between 2029 and 2036, with coupons ranging from 4.300% to 5.250%, sold to qualified institutional buyers in the U.S. and certain non-U.S. investors under Rule 144A and Regulation S. The notes, initially guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by FedEx Corporation and FedEx Freight, Inc., form part of a capital structure that anticipates a planned spin-off in which FedEx will distribute at least 80.1% of the Issuer’s common stock to its shareholders, after which FedEx will be released from its guarantee and FedEx Custom Critical, Inc. will become an additional guarantor, signaling a major step in reorganizing the freight business’s standalone financing and credit profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (FDX) stock is a Buy with a $401.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FedEx stock, see the FDX Stock Forecast page.

FedEx Announces North American Leadership Changes Amid Restructuring

On January 23, 2026, FedEx Express France unveiled a major transformation programme aimed at modernising and simplifying its domestic French operations to secure long-term competitiveness in a highly price-pressured parcels market, anchored by up to €78 million of investment in upgraded facilities and advanced scanning and routing technologies. The plan includes redesigning the ground network by reducing the station footprint from 103 to 86 sites, potentially cutting up to 500 operational roles and altering work locations and schedules for about 800 staff, while also creating more than 770 new full- and part-time operations positions for which affected employees will have priority, and is expected to drive business optimisation costs of $175 million to $275 million over roughly 18 months, subject to consultation with French labour representatives. In a related governance move announced on January 27, 2026, FedEx named Scott L. Ray as Chief Operating Officer, United States and Canada, at Federal Express Corporation effective June 1, 2026, succeeding John A. Smith, who will transition to lead FedEx Freight following its planned spin-off, underscoring ongoing efforts to streamline the group’s operating structure in North America alongside its European restructuring.

The most recent analyst rating on (FDX) stock is a Hold with a $306.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FedEx stock, see the FDX Stock Forecast page.

FedEx Freight secures new credit facilities for spin-off

In preparation for the planned spin-off of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. from FedEx Corporation, FedEx Freight on January 15, 2026 entered into two new credit facilities: a $1.2 billion five-year revolving credit facility and a $600 million three-year delayed draw term loan facility, both in U.S. dollars and tied to FedEx Freight’s credit ratings. The facilities, which become fully available only upon or in close anticipation of the spin-off, are designed to fund a cash distribution to FedEx, support spin-off related transactions and expenses, and provide ongoing liquidity for general corporate purposes, including acquisitions, while imposing leverage covenants, negative pledges, and other customary restrictions that will frame the capital structure and financial discipline of the standalone LTL business. In a related governance move dated January 12, 2026, FedEx director Stephen E. Gorman informed the board he will resign from FedEx’s board to join the board of the newly spun-off FedEx Freight, with the company noting there were no disagreements regarding FedEx’s operations or policies, underscoring an orderly transition as the freight unit moves toward independence.

The most recent analyst rating on (FDX) stock is a Hold with a $280.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FedEx stock, see the FDX Stock Forecast page.