FedEx (FDX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $73.46B
• Dividend Yield: 1.94%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.73M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: 3.09%
• EPS Growth: 14.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 306,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 4.82
• Shares Outstanding: 235,122,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,640,358
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,733,050
• PEG Ratio: -4.71
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.45
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.10
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.19
• 1Y Price Target: $314.01
• Price Target Upside: -0.20% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 23
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $354.00 ▲(12.51% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (healthy margins and strong free cash flow growth) and strong technical trend (price above all key moving averages). Positive earnings-call signals—raised EPS outlook and ongoing Network 2.0/spin-off execution—add support, partially offset by leverage and operational/industrial headwinds (MD-11 grounding and Freight weakness). Valuation appears reasonable but not especially cheap, with a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Free cash flow growth

Sustained ~19% FCF growth and solid FCF-to-income conversion signals durable cash generation capacity. That supports ongoing network investment, dividend/return policy and potential debt reduction, improving financial flexibility over the medium term.

Margin profile and operating efficiency

Healthy gross and operating margins reflect efficient scale in parcel and freight operations. Durable margins provide buffer against cyclical revenue dips, fund technology and network upgrades, and underpin sustainable operating cash flow over multiple quarters.

Strategic spin-off progress

Formal Form 10 filing and preparatory actions make the FedEx Freight spin-off a tangible structural shift. Separating LTL can unlock management focus, clearer capital allocation and targeted balance-sheet policies for each business, enhancing long-term operating discipline.

Negative Factors

Balance sheet leverage

Above-average leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises interest expense sensitivity. In adverse cycles or with spin-off related uses of cash, high net debt can constrain capital allocation, limit buffer for operational shocks and amplify downside risk.

FedEx Freight weakness

Persistent LTL demand weakness is a structural headwind for the Freight unit. A multi-quarter decline in volumes and profitability can reduce consolidated cash flow and complicate the standalone Freight thesis, potentially limiting synergies and strategic optionality post spin-off.

Operational disruption risk (MD-11 grounding)

Aircraft grounding and related fleet issues highlight execution and operational risk in time-sensitive air networks. Such disruptions create recurring incremental costs, strain service reliability and could require sustained capex or reconfiguration, pressuring margins until resolved.

FedEx Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

FedEx Corporation provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. The company's FedEx Express segment offers express transportation, small-package ground delivery, and freight transportation services; time-critical transportation services; and cross-border enablement, technology, and e-commerce transportation solutions. Its FedEx Ground segment provides day-certain delivery services to businesses and residences. The company's FedEx Freight segment offers less-than-truckload freight transportation services. As of May 31, 2022, this segment had approximately 30,000 vehicles and 400 service centers. Its FedEx Services segment provides sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer service, technical support, billing and collection, and back-office support services. The company's Corporate, Other and Eliminations segment offers integrated supply chain management solutions, specialty transportation, customs brokerage, and global ocean and air freight forwarding services; and document and business services, as well as retail access to its customers for its package transportation businesses. FedEx Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Memphis, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

FedEx generates revenue primarily through its various shipping and logistics services. The FedEx Express segment, which offers time-sensitive overnight shipping services, constitutes a significant portion of its revenue, driven by both domestic and international shipments. FedEx Ground focuses on parcel delivery services for businesses and individuals, capitalizing on the growth of e-commerce. FedEx Freight provides less-than-truckload (LTL) freight services, catering to businesses with larger shipping needs. Additionally, FedEx Logistics offers supply chain management and consulting services, contributing to the company's revenue stream. Strategic partnerships with e-commerce platforms and retailers, along with investments in technology to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience, further bolster FedEx's financial performance.

FedEx Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid profitability and operating efficiency (23.24% gross margin; 6.87% EBIT margin; 11.62% EBITDA margin) plus strong free cash flow growth (18.99%) support the score. Offsetting factors include modest/slowing revenue growth (1.70%) and meaningful leverage (1.34 debt-to-equity), which adds risk if conditions weaken.

Income Statement

FedEx's income statement shows stable profitability with a gross profit margin of 23.24% and a net profit margin of 4.81% in the TTM period. The revenue growth rate is modest at 1.70%, indicating steady growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 6.87% and 11.62%, respectively, reflecting efficient operations. However, the revenue growth has slowed compared to previous years, which could be a concern if the trend continues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.34, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity is strong at 21.01%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 31.55%, suggesting a solid equity base. However, the company has a significant level of debt, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a robust free cash flow growth rate of 18.99% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.51, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.53, reflecting good cash conversion. Despite these strengths, the company needs to maintain this momentum to ensure long-term sustainability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	87.93B	87.69B	90.16B	93.51B	83.79B
Gross Profit	19.00B	18.95B	19.17B	20.17B	17.79B
EBITDA	10.49B	10.87B	10.23B	9.55B	11.26B
Net Income	4.09B	4.33B	3.97B	3.83B	5.23B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	87.63B	87.01B	87.11B	85.99B	82.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.57B	6.50B	6.86B	6.90B	7.09B
Total Debt	37.42B	37.72B	38.33B	37.19B	36.46B
Total Liabilities	59.55B	59.42B	61.05B	61.05B	58.61B
Stockholders Equity	28.07B	27.58B	26.09B	24.94B	24.17B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.98B	3.14B	2.64B	3.07B	4.25B
Operating Cash Flow	7.04B	8.31B	8.81B	9.83B	10.13B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.09B	-5.20B	-6.17B	-6.82B	-6.01B
Financing Cash Flow	-4.02B	-3.43B	-2.60B	-3.02B	-2.09B

FedEx Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 314.65
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FDX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 314.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 305.86, above the 50-day MA of 288.70, and above the 200-day MA of 242.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FDX.

FedEx Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXPD	80 Outperform	$21.23B	25.78	36.47%	1.02%	12.54%	19.59%
FDX	76 Outperform	$73.46B	17.23	15.87%	1.94%	3.09%	14.94%
ZTO	73 Outperform	$16.85B	14.53	13.83%	2.98%	12.89%	3.12%
CHRW	72 Outperform	$21.31B	36.57	34.32%	1.51%	-7.08%	71.39%
XPO	70 Outperform	$17.44B	53.27	19.26%	―	-0.30%	-11.02%
UPS	66 Neutral	$90.95B	16.34	33.83%	6.55%	-1.25%	-2.25%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

FedEx Corporate Events

FedEx Freight secures new credit facilities for spin-off

In preparation for the planned spin-off of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. from FedEx Corporation, FedEx Freight on January 15, 2026 entered into two new credit facilities: a $1.2 billion five-year revolving credit facility and a $600 million three-year delayed draw term loan facility, both in U.S. dollars and tied to FedEx Freight’s credit ratings. The facilities, which become fully available only upon or in close anticipation of the spin-off, are designed to fund a cash distribution to FedEx, support spin-off related transactions and expenses, and provide ongoing liquidity for general corporate purposes, including acquisitions, while imposing leverage covenants, negative pledges, and other customary restrictions that will frame the capital structure and financial discipline of the standalone LTL business. In a related governance move dated January 12, 2026, FedEx director Stephen E. Gorman informed the board he will resign from FedEx’s board to join the board of the newly spun-off FedEx Freight, with the company noting there were no disagreements regarding FedEx’s operations or policies, underscoring an orderly transition as the freight unit moves toward independence.

The most recent analyst rating on (FDX) stock is a Hold with a $280.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FedEx stock, see the FDX Stock Forecast page.

FedEx Amends Credit Agreements for Spin-Off Plans

On October 31, 2025, FedEx amended its $1.75 billion three-year and five-year credit agreements with a group of financial institutions to prepare for the planned spin-off of FedEx Freight by June 2026. The amendments include the release of FedEx Freight from its guarantees, adjustments to financial covenants, and extensions of the termination dates for the credit agreements, reflecting strategic financial planning for the upcoming spin-off.

The most recent analyst rating on (FDX) stock is a Buy with a $280.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FedEx stock, see the FDX Stock Forecast page.