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CH Robinson (CHRW)
NASDAQ:CHRW
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CH Robinson
(NASDAQ:CHRW)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$177.00
▲(0.62% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:01/30/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals—stronger profitability, sharply better 2025 cash generation, and improved leverage—tempered by uneven/declining revenue and freight-cycle sensitivity. Technically, the trend is strong but appears overextended, while valuation is the main drawback due to a high P/E and modest yield. Earnings-call guidance was constructive on productivity and margins but acknowledged near-term macro pressure.
Positive Factors
Strong recent cash generation
Sustained, large free cash flow provides durable flexibility for buybacks, dividends, capex and debt reduction. This strengthens capital allocation optionality and reduces funding risk over a multi‑quarter horizon, supporting resilience even if top‑line growth is uneven.
AI‑driven productivity and automation
Material, repeatable productivity gains from scaled AI and automation lower unit costs and raise operating leverage. These structural efficiency improvements let C.H. Robinson scale services with less incremental headcount, supporting sustainable margin expansion and competitive cost advantage.
Consistent market share gains and network scale
Prolonged share gains imply durable network effects across shippers and carriers, reinforcing pricing and service advantages. Scale improves access to capacity, data and relationships, making the brokerage platform harder to displace and supporting long‑term revenue and margin resilience.
Negative Factors
Choppy and declining revenue/AGP trends
Top‑line weakness shows the business remains tightly coupled to freight volumes and pricing cycles; recent earnings gains are driven more by efficiency and mix than sustained revenue growth. If demand stays weak, margin improvements may be insufficient to drive durable EPS growth.
Significant exposure to Global Forwarding / ocean rates
A large decline in ocean forwarding AGP highlights structural vulnerability to freight‑rate normalization. Because ocean is a meaningful segment, prolonged weak rates can materially depress revenue and dilute companywide margins despite improvements in other areas.
Freight‑cycle sensitivity and still meaningful leverage
Although leverage has decreased, the company remains more debt‑reliant than low‑risk peers and has a history of volatile cash flows. Combined with freight‑cycle exposure, this raises downside risk in prolonged downturns and limits financial flexibility if markets deteriorate.
CH Robinson (CHRW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.04B
Dividend Yield1.51%
Average Volume (3M)2.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.7
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth-7.08%
EPS Growth71.39%
CountryUS
Employees13,347
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.23
Shares Outstanding118,620,834
10 Day Avg. Volume3,980,803
30 Day Avg. Volume2,811,813
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.29
Price to Book (P/B)10.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.19
P/FCF Ratio21.60
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.38
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda22.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$191.72Price Target Upside8.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)6.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.60B
CH Robinson Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation services and logistics solutions to companies in various industries worldwide. The company operates in two segments, North American Surface Transportation and Global Forwarding. It offers transportation and logistics services, such as truckload; less than truckload transportation brokerage services, which include the shipment of single or multiple pallets of freight; intermodal transportation that comprise the shipment service of freight in containers or trailers by a combination of truck and rail; and non-vessel ocean common carrier and freight forwarding services, as well as organizes air shipments and provides door-to-door services. The company also offers customs broker services; and other logistics services, such as fee-based managed, warehousing, small parcel, and other services. It has contractual relationships with approximately 85,000 transportation companies, including motor carriers, railroads, and air and ocean carriers. In addition, the company is involved in buying, selling, and/or marketing of fresh produce, including fresh fruits, vegetables, and other value-added perishable items under the Robinson Fresh name. Further, it provides transportation management services or managed TMS; and other surface transportation services. The company offers its fresh produce to grocery retailers, restaurants, produce wholesalers, and foodservice distributors through a network of independent produce growers and suppliers. C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.
How the Company Makes MoneyC.H. Robinson generates revenue primarily through its logistics services, which include brokerage fees from arranging transportation for customers and carriers. The company charges clients a fee for its services, which is typically a percentage of the transportation costs. Key revenue streams include truckload and less-than-truckload services, intermodal transportation, and value-added services such as logistics consulting and supply chain optimization. The company also benefits from strong partnerships with a vast network of carriers and customers, enhancing its ability to leverage economies of scale. Additionally, C.H. Robinson's proprietary technology platforms facilitate efficient operations and provide clients with data-driven insights, further contributing to customer retention and revenue growth.
CH Robinson Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Revenues by Service Line
Breaks down revenue by service line, offering insight into which services are most lucrative and how the company's business mix is evolving over time.
Breaks down revenue by service line, offering insight into which services are most lucrative and how the company's business mix is evolving over time.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCH Robinson Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear near‑term macro challenges — notably falling ocean rates, Q4 revenue/AGP declines, December volatility, and spot cost spikes — with multiple operational and strategic wins: market share gains, margin improvement in NAST and Global Forwarding, sizable productivity and automation achievements, stronger balance sheet and shareholder returns, and explicit 2026 guidance tied to continued productivity. Management emphasized discipline, lean AI rollout, and optionality between margin and growth, projecting confidence in reaching mid‑cycle margin targets while retaining flexibility to reinvest.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Consistent Market Share Growth and Volume Outperformance
Delivered market share gains for the 11th consecutive quarter; NAST total volume +1% year‑over‑year, truckload volume +~3% and LTL +~0.5% versus CAS freight shipment index decline of 7.6% year‑over‑year.
Margin and Gross Profit Improvements in Key Businesses
NAST AGP margin improved ~20 basis points year‑over‑year; Global Forwarding expanded gross margins by ~120 basis points year‑over‑year, driven by improved revenue management discipline.
Productivity and Efficiency Gains
Double‑digit productivity increase in NAST for the full year and high single‑digit productivity increase in Global Forwarding; shipments per person per day increased >40% since 2022.
Lean AI Operational Wins (Tangible Automation Results)
Scaled AI agents and automation: missed LTL pickup return trips reduced by 42%; 95% of missed‑pickup checks automated; saved >350 hours of outsourced manual work per day; RFQ cycle time reduced from ~17–20 minutes to <32 seconds in automated workflows.
Operating Margin Expansion and Cost Discipline
Operating margin (excluding restructuring) expanded ~320 basis points year‑over‑year; NAST operating margin (excluding restructuring) expanded ~310 basis points; Q4 personnel expenses (ex‑restructuring) down $28.8M or ~8.2% year‑over‑year.
Strong Cash Generation and Balance Sheet
Generated $305.4M cash from operations in Q4; ended quarter with ~$1.49B liquidity (including $1.33B committed facilities and $161M cash); net debt/EBITDA improved to 1.03x from 1.17x sequentially.
Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation
Returned approximately $207.7M to shareholders in Q4 through $133.3M share repurchases and $74.3M dividends while maintaining investment‑grade focus.
Clear 2026 Guidance and Productivity Targets
Provided 2026 guidance: personnel expense $1.25B–$1.35B, SG&A $540M–$590M (D&A $95M–$105M), capex $75M–$85M; reiterated double‑digit productivity targets for NAST and Global Forwarding in 2026 and confidence in previously disclosed $6 EPS target under a no‑market‑growth scenario.
Negative Updates
Revenue and AGP Declines
Q4 total revenue declined ~7% year‑over‑year and total AGP declined ~4% year‑over‑year, reflecting macro headwinds across the business.
Significant Weakness in Global Forwarding (Ocean)
Global Forwarding AGP down ~13% year‑over‑year, driven by substantial declines in ocean rates; ocean AGP per shipment declined ~15.2% year‑over‑year, with December the most pronounced month.
Volatility and December Weakness
Monthly AGP per business day in Q4: October down 5%, November up 6%, December down 12% — showing pronounced intra‑quarter volatility and a weak December driven by ocean normalization.
Spot Truckload Cost Spikes and Capacity Disruption
Five‑week run of capacity disruptions (seasonal decline, three winter storms, regulatory enforcement) caused dry‑van load‑to‑truck ratio to rise to ~10:1 vs ~6:1 prior year and produced sharp spot market cost spikes, pressuring margins.
Ongoing Weak Freight Demand
Cash freight shipment index has declined year‑over‑year for the 13th consecutive quarter and Q4 reading was the lowest Q4 since 2009, indicating continued weak macro demand.
Restructuring Charges and Headcount Reduction
Q4 personnel expenses included $15.2M of restructuring charges; average headcount down ~12.9% year‑over‑year (down 3.8% sequentially), which could present execution or relationship risk if not managed carefully despite company positioning it as efficiency.
Near‑term Pressure Expected to Continue
Management expects ocean rate normalization to persist into Q1 and highlighted a typical Q1 seasonal softening (10‑yr CAS average ~2.3% sequential decline), reinforcing expectation of near‑term headwinds.
Company Guidance
Management's guidance and commentary for 2026 highlighted: personnel expense guidance of $1.25–$1.35 billion (including an estimated Q1 employer FICA headwind of ~$15M vs Q4), SG&A of $540–$590 million (including $95–$105M of depreciation & amortization), capital expenditures of $75–$85 million (after $70.5M in 2025), and a full‑year tax rate expected at 18–20% (Q1 tax rate below 15%); the company reiterated confidence in its $6 EPS target with no market growth and expects double‑digit productivity improvements in both NAST and Global Forwarding in 2026 as AgenTeq AI scales. At the end of Q4 liquidity was ~$1.49B (cash $161M, $1.33B committed credit), net debt/EBITDA was 1.03x (down from 1.17x), Q4 cash from operations was $305.4M, and Q4 capital returned to shareholders was ~$207.7M (share repurchases $133.3M, dividends $74.3M). Recent Q4 operating highlights that inform the outlook included Q4 personnel expenses of $337M (including $15.2M restructuring; ex‑restruct $321.8M, down 8.2% y/y), Q4 SG&A of $138.7M (ex‑restruct down $11.8M or 7.9% y/y), company AGP down ~4% y/y, NAST AGP +2% y/y, operating margin ex‑restruct expanded 320 bps y/y (NAST +310 bps), and stated mid‑cycle margin targets of ~40% for NAST and ~30% for Global Forwarding; seasonality/market context noted a historical Q1 CAS sequential volume decline of ~2.3%.CH Robinson Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Earnings and cash generation have rebounded meaningfully (net income up to $587M in 2025; operating cash flow ~$915M and free cash flow ~$895M), and leverage has improved (debt-to-equity ~1.01x in 2024 with debt down further in 2025). Offsetting this, revenue is uneven and recently declining, and cash flows have shown historical volatility, leaving sensitivity to freight-cycle weakness.Income Statement
Profitability improved meaningfully off the 2023 trough: net income rose from $325M (2023) to $466M (2024) and $587M (2025), with stronger operating earnings as well. However, the revenue line is choppy and trending down recently (2025 revenue down ~1.6% after a small increase in 2024), and margins in 2024 remained below the stronger 2021–2022 levels—suggesting the earnings recovery is coming more from efficiency/price/mix than sustained top-line growth.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage has improved versus the more stretched period in 2022–2023, with debt-to-equity moving from ~1.74x (2022) and ~1.38x (2023) to ~1.01x (2024), and total debt declining further to ~$1.63B in 2025 while equity increased to ~$1.85B. That said, leverage is still meaningful for a logistics intermediary and the company remains more debt-reliant than a low-risk balance sheet profile, leaving some sensitivity if freight markets weaken.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a clear strength recently: operating cash flow jumped to ~$915M in 2025 from ~$509M in 2024, and free cash flow was very strong at ~$895M in 2025 (up vs. 2024). Conversion has generally been solid in prior years (free cash flow close to net income in 2023–2024), though cash flow has shown volatility historically (notably weak operating cash flow in 2021), which is a risk factor when the operating environment turns.72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 16.23B | 17.72B | 17.60B | 24.70B | 23.10B |
| Gross Profit | 1.36B | 1.31B | 1.14B | 1.87B | 1.61B |
| EBITDA | 888.38M | 766.30M | 613.59M | 1.36B | 1.17B |
| Net Income | 587.08M | 465.69M | 325.13M | 940.52M | 844.25M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.06B | 5.30B | 5.23B | 5.95B | 7.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 160.87M | 145.76M | 145.52M | 217.48M | 257.41M |
| Total Debt | 1.63B | 1.74B | 1.95B | 2.36B | 2.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.21B | 3.58B | 3.81B | 4.60B | 5.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.85B | 1.72B | 1.42B | 1.35B | 2.02B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 894.89M | 486.43M | 647.84M | 1.52B | 24.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 914.52M | 509.08M | 731.95M | 1.65B | 94.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -54.67M | -74.29M | -82.79M | -64.92M | -85.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -862.75M | -416.10M | -717.83M | -1.62B | 7.57M |
CH Robinson Technical Analysis
Negative
175.91
Price Trends
176.48
Negative
160.09
Positive
134.51
Positive
Market Momentum
0.20
Positive
44.19
Neutral
54.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHRW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 175.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 188.70, below the 50-day MA of 176.48, and above the 200-day MA of 134.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CHRW.
CH Robinson Risk Analysis
CH Robinson disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CH Robinson reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CH Robinson Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $21.22B | 36.40 | 15.79% | 0.89% | -1.60% | 4.87% | |
68 Neutral | $2.51B | 23.64 | 6.31% | 1.14% | -5.79% | -1.57% | |
66 Neutral | $18.61B | 23.33 | 35.42% | 1.02% | 12.54% | 19.59% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $23.96B | 75.05 | 18.26% | ― | -0.30% | -11.02% | |
61 Neutral | $21.04B | 36.70 | 32.91% | 1.51% | -7.08% | 71.39% | |
58 Neutral | $5.03B | 44.21 | 14.41% | 2.56% | -0.74% | -32.79% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.