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CH Robinson
(NASDAQ:CHRW)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$154.00
▼(-17.43% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is anchored by improving underlying financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook (margin expansion, productivity gains, and reaffirmed 2026 targets), but is held back by a very weak technical trend (price far below major moving averages), an elevated P/E with only modest yield support, and added uncertainty from the large legal verdict overhang.
Positive Factors
Margin Improvement
Sustained margin expansion over multiple years indicates stronger pricing discipline and cost control, improving earnings quality. Higher gross and operating margins create durable cash earnings that support reinvestment, dividends, and strategic flexibility through freight cycles.
Negative Factors
Revenue Cyclicality
Meaningful YoY revenue and AGP declines underscore persistent demand cyclicality in freight markets. Even with margin improvements, top‑line volatility makes forecasting and capacity utilization harder, pressuring long‑term revenue visibility and the ability to sustain growth without structural volume recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin Improvement
Sustained margin expansion over multiple years indicates stronger pricing discipline and cost control, improving earnings quality. Higher gross and operating margins create durable cash earnings that support reinvestment, dividends, and strategic flexibility through freight cycles.
Read all positive factors
CH Robinson Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Revenues by Service Line
Breaks down revenue by service line, offering insight into which services are most lucrative and how the company's business mix is evolving over time.
Breaks down revenue by service line, offering insight into which services are most lucrative and how the company's business mix is evolving over time.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCH Robinson (CHRW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.41B
Dividend Yield1.7%
Average Volume (3M)1.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.8
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth-0.09%
EPS Growth19.50%
CountryUS
Employees11,855
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.31
Shares Outstanding117,873,040
10 Day Avg. Volume1,994,528
30 Day Avg. Volume1,577,201
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.29
Price to Book (P/B)10.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.19
P/FCF Ratio21.60
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$203.27Price Target Upside8.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)6.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)$17.05B
CH Robinson Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. serves as a global provider of diverse freight transportation and logistics solutions, assisting companies across numerous industries. The organization's business operations are segmented into two key areas: North Ame...
How the Company Makes Money
C.H. Robinson primarily makes money as a freight intermediary by arranging transportation for shippers and sourcing capacity from carriers, earning a spread between what it charges customers and what it pays transportation providers. Its key reven...
CH Robinson Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized resilient earnings and margin expansion driven by disciplined revenue management, rapid Lean AI adoption, strong productivity gains, and consistent market-share growth despite a challenging freight backdrop. Key positives include a 15% rise in adjusted EPS, NAST margin resilience (14.6%), operating margin expansion (210 bps), and robust shareholder returns, while negatives include a ~12% YoY decline in revenue and AGP, higher spot and fuel costs (spot costs +~19% YoY), and Global Forwarding volume/AGP pressure. Overall, management reaffirmed full-year targets and expressed confidence in execution and the ability to perform in varied market conditions.Positive Updates
Adjusted EPS Growth
Adjusted earnings per share increased 15% year over year in Q1 2026, driven by gross profit optimization, disciplined revenue management, and productivity gains.
Negative Updates
Revenue and AGP Declines
Total company revenue and adjusted gross profit (AGP) each declined approximately 12% year over year in Q1 2026, driven in part by Global Forwarding and macro headwinds.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EPS Growth
Adjusted earnings per share increased 15% year over year in Q1 2026, driven by gross profit optimization, disciplined revenue management, and productivity gains.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed its 2026 targets, including a $6.00 adjusted EPS outlook (assuming no market growth) and the operating income target raised in October, while guiding 2026 personnel expenses of $1.25B–$1.35B, SG&A of $540M–$590M (including D&A $95M–$105M), capital expenditures of $75M–$85M, and a full‑year effective tax rate of 18%–20%; they expect double‑digit productivity gains in NAST and Global Forwarding in 2026 (over‑indexed to H2). In Q1 the company generated $68.6M cash from operations, ended with ~$1.24B liquidity and net debt/EBITDA of 1.32x, returned ~ $360M to shareholders (repurchases $280.7M, dividends $79M), and spent $15M of capex; Q1 personnel expense was $352.7M (incl. $18.8M restructuring; ex‑restructuring $334M) with average headcount down 12.3% YoY, Q1 SG&A $132.1M (incl. $1.5M restructuring), and operating margin (ex‑restructuring) expanded +210 bps YoY (+310 bps YoY in NAST). Operationally, total revenue and AGP were down ~12% YoY, Global Forwarding AGP down ~12%, NAST gross margin was 14.6% in Q1, AGP per business day was -4% Jan / -2% Feb / flat Mar, truckload spot costs rose ~19% YoY (DAT) and management now expects full‑year dry‑van spot rates ~+17% YoY (vs. +8% three months ago), while volumes showed LTL +2% YoY, truckload -3.5% YoY and total NAST volume flat (vs. CAS index -6.2% YoY).CH Robinson Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 17.00B | 16.23B | 17.72B | 17.60B | 24.70B | 23.10B |
| Gross Profit | 1.72B | 1.36B | 1.31B | 1.14B | 1.87B | 1.61B |
| EBITDA | 998.26M | 888.38M | 766.30M | 613.59M | 1.36B | 1.17B |
| Net Income | 633.33M | 587.08M | 465.69M | 325.13M | 940.52M | 844.25M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.84B | 5.06B | 5.30B | 5.23B | 5.95B | 7.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 154.59M | 160.87M | 145.76M | 145.52M | 217.48M | 257.41M |
| Total Debt | 1.97B | 1.63B | 1.74B | 1.95B | 2.36B | 2.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.22B | 3.21B | 3.58B | 3.81B | 4.60B | 5.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.63B | 1.85B | 1.72B | 1.42B | 1.35B | 2.02B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 668.76M | 894.89M | 486.43M | 647.84M | 1.52B | 24.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 685.36M | 914.52M | 509.08M | 731.95M | 1.65B | 94.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -146.54M | -54.67M | -74.29M | -82.79M | -64.92M | -85.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -540.68M | -862.75M | -416.10M | -717.83M | -1.62B | 7.57M |
CH Robinson Technical Analysis
Negative
186.50
Price Trends
184.68
Negative
178.12
Negative
171.23
Negative
Market Momentum
-9.63
Positive
33.07
Neutral
9.98
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHRW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 186.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 185.63, above the 50-day MA of 184.68, and above the 200-day MA of 171.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -9.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.98 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CHRW.
CH Robinson Risk Analysis
CH Robinson disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CH Robinson reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CH Robinson Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $21.96B | 27.04 | 36.71% | 0.90% | 1.13% | 2.62% | |
72 Outperform | $25.52B | 38.60 | 18.75% | 0.62% | 5.28% | 28.24% | |
68 Neutral | $2.85B | 34.47 | 4.81% | 1.04% | -5.79% | -1.57% | |
67 Neutral | $23.53B | 58.59 | 21.57% | ― | 7.03% | 16.37% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $5.93B | 45.28 | 15.87% | 1.80% | 4.10% | -19.02% | |
60 Neutral | $17.41B | 27.82 | 36.01% | 1.35% | -0.09% | 19.50% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CHRW
CH Robinson
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40.24
35.14%
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CH Robinson Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
C.H. Robinson Faces Major Jury Verdict in Texas
Negative
Jul 24, 2026
On July 23, 2026, a jury in Dallas County, Texas issued an advisory verdict against C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. and two other defendants in a lawsuit stemming from a trucking accident involving an independent motor carrier, awarding $604 million...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
C.H. Robinson Shareholders Approve Proposals at 2026 Meeting
Positive
May 11, 2026
C.H. Robinson held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders virtually on May 7, 2026, with approximately 93.4% of its 117.9 million outstanding shares represented, and shareholders elected ten directors to one-year terms expiring at the 2027 annual...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.