CH Robinson (CHRW)
NASDAQ:CHRW
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CH Robinson
(NASDAQ:CHRW)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$174.00
▲(5.51% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:01/30/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals—stronger profitability, sharply better 2025 cash generation, and improved leverage—tempered by uneven/declining revenue and freight-cycle sensitivity. Technically, the trend is strong but appears overextended, while valuation is the main drawback due to a high P/E and modest yield. Earnings-call guidance was constructive on productivity and margins but acknowledged near-term macro pressure.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Sustained, large operating and free cash flow in 2025 provides durable funding for buybacks, dividends, and targeted investments in technology. Strong cash conversion reduces refinancing risk and gives management flexibility to pursue productivity programs that raise long-term margins.
Negative Factors
Choppy Revenue and Freight-cycle Sensitivity
Top-line weakness and variability remain structural risks: as a non-asset broker CHRW's revenue and AGP are tied to spot freight markets. Persistent soft demand or continued shipment-index declines can compress gross profit and limit the durability of margin gains from productivity alone.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Sustained, large operating and free cash flow in 2025 provides durable funding for buybacks, dividends, and targeted investments in technology. Strong cash conversion reduces refinancing risk and gives management flexibility to pursue productivity programs that raise long-term margins.
Read all positive factors
CH Robinson (CHRW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.39B
Dividend Yield1.51%
Average Volume (3M)1.51M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.9
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth-7.08%
EPS Growth71.39%
CountryUS
Employees13,347
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.23
Shares Outstanding118,620,834
10 Day Avg. Volume1,295,090
30 Day Avg. Volume1,512,577
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.29
Price to Book (P/B)10.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.19
P/FCF Ratio21.60
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.99
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$192.00Price Target Upside16.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)6.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.72B
CH Robinson Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation services and logistics solutions to companies in various industries worldwide. The company operates in two segments, North American Surface Transportati...
How the Company Makes Money
C.H. Robinson primarily makes money by arranging transportation on behalf of shippers and earning a spread between (1) what it charges the customer and (2) what it pays contracted third-party carriers and logistics providers to move the freight. T...
CH Robinson Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Revenues by Service Line
Breaks down revenue by service line, offering insight into which services are most lucrative and how the company's business mix is evolving over time.
Breaks down revenue by service line, offering insight into which services are most lucrative and how the company's business mix is evolving over time.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCH Robinson Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear near‑term macro challenges — notably falling ocean rates, Q4 revenue/AGP declines, December volatility, and spot cost spikes — with multiple operational and strategic wins: market share gains, margin improvement in NAST and Global Forwarding, sizable productivity and automation achievements, stronger balance sheet and shareholder returns, and explicit 2026 guidance tied to continued productivity. Management emphasized discipline, lean AI rollout, and optionality between margin and growth, projecting confidence in reaching mid‑cycle margin targets while retaining flexibility to reinvest.Positive Updates
Consistent Market Share Growth and Volume Outperformance
Delivered market share gains for the 11th consecutive quarter; NAST total volume +1% year‑over‑year, truckload volume +~3% and LTL +~0.5% versus CAS freight shipment index decline of 7.6% year‑over‑year.
Negative Updates
Revenue and AGP Declines
Q4 total revenue declined ~7% year‑over‑year and total AGP declined ~4% year‑over‑year, reflecting macro headwinds across the business.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consistent Market Share Growth and Volume Outperformance
Delivered market share gains for the 11th consecutive quarter; NAST total volume +1% year‑over‑year, truckload volume +~3% and LTL +~0.5% versus CAS freight shipment index decline of 7.6% year‑over‑year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance and commentary for 2026 highlighted: personnel expense guidance of $1.25–$1.35 billion (including an estimated Q1 employer FICA headwind of ~$15M vs Q4), SG&A of $540–$590 million (including $95–$105M of depreciation & amortization), capital expenditures of $75–$85 million (after $70.5M in 2025), and a full‑year tax rate expected at 18–20% (Q1 tax rate below 15%); the company reiterated confidence in its $6 EPS target with no market growth and expects double‑digit productivity improvements in both NAST and Global Forwarding in 2026 as AgenTeq AI scales. At the end of Q4 liquidity was ~$1.49B (cash $161M, $1.33B committed credit), net debt/EBITDA was 1.03x (down from 1.17x), Q4 cash from operations was $305.4M, and Q4 capital returned to shareholders was ~$207.7M (share repurchases $133.3M, dividends $74.3M). Recent Q4 operating highlights that inform the outlook included Q4 personnel expenses of $337M (including $15.2M restructuring; ex‑restruct $321.8M, down 8.2% y/y), Q4 SG&A of $138.7M (ex‑restruct down $11.8M or 7.9% y/y), company AGP down ~4% y/y, NAST AGP +2% y/y, operating margin ex‑restruct expanded 320 bps y/y (NAST +310 bps), and stated mid‑cycle margin targets of ~40% for NAST and ~30% for Global Forwarding; seasonality/market context noted a historical Q1 CAS sequential volume decline of ~2.3%.CH Robinson Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 16.23B | 17.72B | 17.60B | 24.70B | 23.10B |
| Gross Profit | 1.36B | 1.31B | 1.14B | 1.87B | 1.61B |
| EBITDA | 888.38M | 766.30M | 613.59M | 1.36B | 1.17B |
| Net Income | 587.08M | 465.69M | 325.13M | 940.52M | 844.25M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.06B | 5.30B | 5.23B | 5.95B | 7.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 160.87M | 145.76M | 145.52M | 217.48M | 257.41M |
| Total Debt | 1.63B | 1.74B | 1.95B | 2.36B | 2.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.21B | 3.58B | 3.81B | 4.60B | 5.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.85B | 1.72B | 1.42B | 1.35B | 2.02B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 894.89M | 486.43M | 647.84M | 1.52B | 24.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 914.52M | 509.08M | 731.95M | 1.65B | 94.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -54.67M | -74.29M | -82.79M | -64.92M | -85.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -862.75M | -416.10M | -717.83M | -1.62B | 7.57M |
CH Robinson Technical Analysis
Negative
164.92
Price Trends
178.43
Negative
171.19
Negative
146.67
Positive
Market Momentum
-2.77
Negative
43.11
Neutral
40.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHRW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 164.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 168.10, below the 50-day MA of 178.43, and above the 200-day MA of 146.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CHRW.
CH Robinson Risk Analysis
CH Robinson disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CH Robinson reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CH Robinson Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $21.48B | 31.73 | 16.33% | 0.89% | -1.60% | 4.87% | |
68 Neutral | $2.38B | 18.11 | 6.30% | 1.14% | -5.79% | -1.57% | |
66 Neutral | $19.10B | 24.87 | 35.57% | 1.02% | 12.54% | 19.59% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $24.92B | 50.75 | 17.81% | ― | -0.30% | -11.02% | |
61 Neutral | $19.39B | 32.93 | 32.52% | 1.51% | -7.08% | 71.39% | |
58 Neutral | $5.75B | 44.08 | 13.01% | 2.56% | -0.74% | -32.79% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.