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Hub Group
(NASDAQ:HUBG)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$52.00
▲(21.89% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:12/03/25
Hub Group's overall stock score reflects a stable but challenging financial performance, with strong technical indicators suggesting bullish momentum. However, valuation concerns and mixed earnings call results highlight potential risks. The company's strategic acquisitions and operational efficiencies provide a positive outlook, but revenue growth challenges remain a concern.
Positive Factors
Intermodal Strength
Sustained intermodal volume and yield improvements show durable demand and pricing power in Hub's largest segment. Strong Mexico and refrigerated growth diversify routes and customer mix, supporting higher utilization of rail partnerships and sustaining margins over multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
Persistent top‑line contraction undermines scale economics and limits the firm's ability to spread fixed costs, pressuring long‑run margins and return metrics. Without a sustained revenue turnaround, profitability and investment funding will remain constrained.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Intermodal Strength
Sustained intermodal volume and yield improvements show durable demand and pricing power in Hub's largest segment. Strong Mexico and refrigerated growth diversify routes and customer mix, supporting higher utilization of rail partnerships and sustaining margins over multiple quarters.
Read all positive factors
Hub Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Reveals profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.
Reveals profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHub Group (HUBG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.92B
Dividend Yield1.14%
Average Volume (3M)753.49K
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.0
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth-5.79%
EPS Growth-1.57%
CountryUS
Employees6,604
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.75
Shares Outstanding60,578,606
10 Day Avg. Volume1,110,344
30 Day Avg. Volume753,493
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.74
Price to Book (P/B)1.64
Price to Sales (P/S)0.68
P/FCF Ratio18.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.95
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$42.00Price Target Upside-1.55% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.83B
Hub Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America. It operates in two segments, Intermodal and Transportation Solutions (ITS), and Logistics. The ITS segment offers intermo...
How the Company Makes Money
Hub Group generates revenue primarily through its intermodal, logistics, and truckload services. The intermodal segment, which involves the transportation of goods using multiple modes of transport, is a significant revenue driver, as it leverages...
Hub Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced mix of operational strengths and material challenges. Positives include record intermodal service, substantial productivity gains (41% improvement in Q4 and 12% in managed transportation), strong operating cash flow (~$194M), reduced net debt (~$116M), continued capital returns, and constructive 2026 guidance ($3.65B–$3.95B) with disciplined CapEx. Offsetting these are a material accounting error requiring restatements (impacting purchase transportation and accounts payable, $77M recorded during the first nine months), a 7% decline in consolidated revenue for the year, notable weakness in brokerage (-10% volumes, -4% rev/load), Logistics softness, lost dedicated sites, lower peak surcharges (~$4M YoY reduction), and near-term volume variability (e.g., Jan intermodal -4%). Given the meaningful operational and financial positives but also significant accounting and revenue challenges, the highlights and lowlights are roughly balanced.Positive Updates
Strong Intermodal Service and Market Share Gains
Intermodal delivered record service levels and market share gains: Q4 intermodal volumes +1% year-over-year, revenue per load flat vs prior year and +3% sequentially, monthly intermodal: Oct +2% YoY, Nov -3% YoY, Dec +3% YoY. Company reported a 90 basis point year-over-year improvement in on-time performance, positioning Hub Group favorably for the 2026 bid season.
Negative Updates
Accounting Error and Restatement Risk
Company identified a calculation error that understated purchase transportation costs and accounts payable; $77 million of reductions to accounts payable and purchase transportation costs were recorded during the first nine months of 2025. Management will restate earlier quarterly results (to be included in the 10-K) and cannot yet estimate the full correction amount, delaying finalization of 2025 financials.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Intermodal Service and Market Share Gains
Intermodal delivered record service levels and market share gains: Q4 intermodal volumes +1% year-over-year, revenue per load flat vs prior year and +3% sequentially, monthly intermodal: Oct +2% YoY, Nov -3% YoY, Dec +3% YoY. Company reported a 90 basis point year-over-year improvement in on-time performance, positioning Hub Group favorably for the 2026 bid season.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Hub Group guided 2026 revenue of $3.65 billion to $3.95 billion, with capital expenditures of $35–$45 million (no container purchases planned), expecting intermodal volume growth to be the primary revenue driver while Dedicated is slightly lower, Logistics (excluding brokerage) to recover as new business ramps, and brokerage volumes to remain pressured; they reiterated continued share repurchases and dividends as capital priorities. Management noted a quarterly dividend that returns roughly $7.5 million and about $142 million remaining on the current repurchase authorization, will pursue M&A only opportunistically above strict return thresholds, and plans opportunistic tractor and technology investments. For context underpinning the outlook, they cited 2025 preliminary metrics of consolidated revenue of ~ $3.7 billion, operating cash flow of ~ $194 million, ~ $45 million CapEx for the year, debt of ~$229 million with ~$113 million cash (net debt ~$116 million), and $44 million returned to shareholders in 2025.Hub Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.73B | 3.95B | 4.20B | 5.34B | 4.23B | 3.50B |
| Gross Profit | 1.82B | 3.37B | 503.66M | 889.50M | 599.64M | 425.44M |
| EBITDA | 337.50M | 339.57M | 407.09M | 629.19M | 349.91M | 229.12M |
| Net Income | 105.02M | 103.99M | 167.53M | 356.95M | 171.47M | 73.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.90B | 2.87B | 2.94B | 2.90B | 2.44B | 2.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 119.70M | 98.25M | 187.27M | 286.64M | 159.78M | 124.51M |
| Total Debt | 498.76M | 508.51M | 575.51M | 451.74M | 334.90M | 330.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.15B | 1.18B | 1.30B | 1.30B | 1.10B | 947.47M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.70B | 1.64B | 1.63B | 1.60B | 1.34B | 1.16B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 113.42M | 143.57M | 282.09M | 239.02M | 119.88M | 59.65M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 160.24M | 194.42M | 422.16M | 458.16M | 252.84M | 174.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -110.64M | -53.33M | -373.16M | -278.87M | -210.13M | -196.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -89.28M | -201.33M | -148.41M | -52.46M | -7.41M | -22.30M |
Hub Group Technical Analysis
Positive
42.66
Price Trends
43.12
Positive
41.15
Positive
40.61
Positive
Market Momentum
1.05
Negative
63.53
Neutral
83.67
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HUBG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.99, below the 50-day MA of 43.12, and above the 200-day MA of 40.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.67 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HUBG.
Hub Group Risk Analysis
Hub Group disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hub Group reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hub Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $26.69B | 43.55 | 17.30% | 0.89% | 0.58% | 17.20% | |
69 Neutral | $7.22B | 58.40 | 14.64% | 2.56% | -0.79% | -28.21% | |
68 Neutral | $2.92B | 35.02 | 6.30% | 1.14% | -5.79% | -1.57% | |
68 Neutral | $74.86B | 17.08 | 15.76% | 1.94% | 7.73% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $24.59B | 71.18 | 19.04% | ― | 3.63% | -11.81% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $23.16B | 39.92 | 33.32% | 1.51% | -6.68% | 18.19% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.