Hub Group (HUBG) AI Stock Analysis

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Hub Group

(NASDAQ:HUBG)

Select Model

Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:68Neutral

Price Target:

$52.00

▲(20.79% Upside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:12/03/25

Hub Group's overall stock score reflects a stable but challenging financial performance, with strong technical indicators suggesting bullish momentum. However, valuation concerns and mixed earnings call results highlight potential risks. The company's strategic acquisitions and operational efficiencies provide a positive outlook, but revenue growth challenges remain a concern.

Positive Factors

Intermodal Strength

Sustained intermodal volume and yield improvements show durable demand and pricing power in Hub's largest segment. Strong Mexico and refrigerated growth diversify routes and customer mix, supporting higher utilization of rail partnerships and sustaining margins over multiple quarters.

Strategic Acquisitions

Targeted acquisitions expand network scale and final-mile capabilities, creating operational density and service breadth. Combined with explicit $50M cost‑savings plans, these moves improve long‑term service competitiveness and provide structural margin and efficiency upside.

Balance Sheet Stability

A solid capital structure and moderate leverage (net debt at low multiples) sustain investment capacity for technology, fleet, and M&A. Financial flexibility reduces refinancing risk and underpins multi‑period strategic initiatives and capital allocation choices.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Persistent top‑line contraction undermines scale economics and limits the firm's ability to spread fixed costs, pressuring long‑run margins and return metrics. Without a sustained revenue turnaround, profitability and investment funding will remain constrained.

Logistics/Brokerage Weakness

A sustained decline in brokerage volumes and logistics revenue indicates structural softness or competitive pressure in higher‑margin services. This erosion reduces revenue diversification, raises carriage costs per unit, and can impair long‑term margin recovery even if intermodal strengthens.

Cash Generation Pressure

Declining free cash flow growth and weak operating cash conversion limit internal funding for capex, fleet renewals, and acquisitions. Over time this constrains strategic flexibility, increases reliance on external financing, and can reduce resilience to industry downturns.

Hub Group (HUBG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.65B

Dividend Yield1.14%

Average Volume (3M)753.49K

Price to Earnings (P/E)18.1

Beta (1Y)1.13

Revenue Growth-5.79%

EPS Growth-1.57%

CountryUS

Employees6,386

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength72

IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.44

Shares Outstanding60,578,606

10 Day Avg. Volume1,110,344

30 Day Avg. Volume753,493

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.74

Price to Book (P/B)1.64

Price to Sales (P/S)0.68

P/FCF Ratio18.82

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.80

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.65

Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.89

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$46.36

Price Target Upside7.69% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering11

EPS Forecast (FY)2.03

Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.78B

Hub Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America. The company's transportation services include intermodal, truckload, less-than-truckload, flatbed, temperature-controlled, and dedicated and regional trucking, as well as final mile, railcar, small parcel, and international transportation. Its logistics services comprise full outsource logistics solution, transportation management, freight consolidation, warehousing and fulfillment, final mile delivery, and parcel and international services. The company also provides dry van, expedited, less-than-truckload, refrigerated, and flatbed truck brokerage services. It offers a fleet of approximately 1,000 tractors and 4,600 trailers to its customers, as well as the driver staffing, management, and infrastructure. The company serves a range of industries, including retail, consumer products, and durable goods. As of December 31, 2021, it owned approximately 43,750 dry, 53-foot containers, as well as 450 refrigerated, 53-foot containers; and leased approximately 250 dry, 53-foot containers. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois.

How the Company Makes MoneyHub Group generates revenue primarily through its intermodal, logistics, and truckload services. The intermodal segment, which involves the transportation of goods using multiple modes of transport, is a significant revenue driver, as it leverages rail networks along with truck transportation to provide efficient and cost-effective solutions for customers. The logistics segment contributes to earnings by offering supply chain management services, including warehousing, distribution, and freight brokerage. Additionally, the truckload segment provides dedicated and spot market trucking services. Key partnerships with railroads and other transportation providers enhance Hub Group's service offerings and operational capabilities. The company's focus on technology and data analytics also plays a crucial role in optimizing supply chain solutions, improving customer experience, and driving revenue growth.

Hub Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Operating Income by Segment

Operating Income by Segment
Reveals profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for improvement.

Chart InsightsHub Group's Intermodal & Transportation segment shows a gradual recovery in operating income, supported by strategic acquisitions like Marten Transport's refrigerated fleet, which boosts growth in high-demand areas. However, the Logistics segment faces challenges, with a notable income decline due to brokerage issues. Despite these hurdles, the company's cost reduction initiatives and Final Mile division's strong performance offer optimism. Management's focus on technology and operational efficiency could stabilize and enhance future earnings, although uncertain demand trends remain a concern.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Hub Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The call presented a balanced mix of operational strengths and material challenges. Positives include record intermodal service, substantial productivity gains (41% improvement in Q4 and 12% in managed transportation), strong operating cash flow (~$194M), reduced net debt (~$116M), continued capital returns, and constructive 2026 guidance ($3.65B–$3.95B) with disciplined CapEx. Offsetting these are a material accounting error requiring restatements (impacting purchase transportation and accounts payable, $77M recorded during the first nine months), a 7% decline in consolidated revenue for the year, notable weakness in brokerage (-10% volumes, -4% rev/load), Logistics softness, lost dedicated sites, lower peak surcharges (~$4M YoY reduction), and near-term volume variability (e.g., Jan intermodal -4%). Given the meaningful operational and financial positives but also significant accounting and revenue challenges, the highlights and lowlights are roughly balanced.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Intermodal Service and Market Share Gains

Intermodal delivered record service levels and market share gains: Q4 intermodal volumes +1% year-over-year, revenue per load flat vs prior year and +3% sequentially, monthly intermodal: Oct +2% YoY, Nov -3% YoY, Dec +3% YoY. Company reported a 90 basis point year-over-year improvement in on-time performance, positioning Hub Group favorably for the 2026 bid season.

Significant Efficiency and Productivity Improvements

Company-wide productivity improvements driven by technology and restructuring: fourth quarter productivity improved 41% year-over-year (company statement), managed transportation productivity improved 12% year-over-year, and CFX warehouse consolidation delivered a 630 basis point improvement in space utilization.

Solid Cash Generation and Strengthened Balance Sheet

Preliminary full-year operating cash flow approximately $194 million; full-year CapEx ~ $45 million (in-line with guidance of < $50 million). Debt at 12/31/2025 ~ $229 million with cash ~ $113 million, resulting in net debt of ~ $116 million, a decrease of ~ $50 million vs 12/31/2024.

Continued Capital Return and Buyback Capacity

Returned $44 million to shareholders in 2025 via dividends and repurchases; quarterly dividend returns ~ $7.5 million and ~ $142 million remains available under the current share repurchase authorization.

Disciplined 2026 Guidance and Capital Allocation

Management provided preliminary 2026 revenue guidance of $3.65 billion to $3.95 billion and CapEx guidance of $35 million to $45 million, with no planned container purchases in 2026 and prioritized investments in technology and selective tractor replacements. M&A to be pursued opportunistically with a high return bar.

Vertical and Regional Growth Pockets

Notable volume growth in specific lines: refrigerated volumes +150% year-over-year in Q4 and Mexico volumes +33% year-over-year. Transcon volume +1% in Q4. Management highlighted completed integrations of Marin intermodal assets and a West Coast final-mile provider performing well.

Negative Updates

Accounting Error and Restatement Risk

Company identified a calculation error that understated purchase transportation costs and accounts payable; $77 million of reductions to accounts payable and purchase transportation costs were recorded during the first nine months of 2025. Management will restate earlier quarterly results (to be included in the 10-K) and cannot yet estimate the full correction amount, delaying finalization of 2025 financials.

Material Revenue Decline

Preliminary consolidated operating revenue for the full year expected to be ~$3.7 billion, a 7% decrease versus prior year. ITS segment operating revenue ~ $2.2 billion and Logistics segment operating revenue ~ $1.6 billion, with Q4 showing a low single-digit decline in ITS and a high single-digit decline in Logistics.

Brokerage and Logistics Demand Weakness

Brokerage volumes declined 10% year-over-year in Q4 and revenue per load declined ~4%, reflecting slower LTL volumes and onboarding dynamics. Logistics headwinds included select customer attrition at CSS and softer final-mile demand with onboarding delays that depressed Q4 volume.

Dedicated Business Pressure

Dedicated revenue declined in Q4 due to lost sites earlier in the year; management expects dedicated to be slightly lower in 2026 as lost sites continue to offset new awards in the near term.

Reduced Peak Surcharges and Muted Peak Season

Peak surcharges in Q4 were approximately $900,000, representing a year-over-year difference of ~$4 million (i.e., materially lower than prior year). Management described peak season activity as muted relative to prior years with some shippers pulling forward inventory, reducing near-term urgency.

Near-Term Intermodal Variability and Weather Impact

Intermodal faced near-term headwinds: January intermodal volumes decreased ~4% year-over-year (impacted by a winter storm and tough comparisons), and November intermodal was down 3% YoY, indicating monthly volatility despite full-quarter modest growth.

Company Guidance

Hub Group guided 2026 revenue of $3.65 billion to $3.95 billion, with capital expenditures of $35–$45 million (no container purchases planned), expecting intermodal volume growth to be the primary revenue driver while Dedicated is slightly lower, Logistics (excluding brokerage) to recover as new business ramps, and brokerage volumes to remain pressured; they reiterated continued share repurchases and dividends as capital priorities. Management noted a quarterly dividend that returns roughly $7.5 million and about $142 million remaining on the current repurchase authorization, will pursue M&A only opportunistically above strict return thresholds, and plans opportunistic tractor and technology investments. For context underpinning the outlook, they cited 2025 preliminary metrics of consolidated revenue of ~ $3.7 billion, operating cash flow of ~ $194 million, ~ $45 million CapEx for the year, debt of ~$229 million with ~$113 million cash (net debt ~$116 million), and $44 million returned to shareholders in 2025.

Hub Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hub Group's financial performance is stable but faces challenges. The income statement shows improved cost management but declining revenue growth. The balance sheet is solid with moderate leverage, yet profitability metrics need improvement. Cash flow analysis indicates potential cash generation issues.

Income Statement

Positive

Hub Group's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin has improved significantly in the TTM period, indicating better cost management. However, the revenue growth rate is negative, reflecting a decline in sales. The net profit margin is stable but low, suggesting limited profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are consistent, showing operational efficiency but also highlighting the need for revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity has decreased over time, suggesting reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a strong capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet indicates stability but highlights the need for improved returns.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with declining free cash flow growth, indicating potential cash generation issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is below optimal levels, suggesting inefficiencies in converting income to cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively strong, indicating good cash retention from profits.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.73B	3.95B	4.20B	5.34B	4.23B	3.50B
Gross Profit	1.82B	3.37B	503.66M	889.50M	599.64M	425.44M
EBITDA	337.50M	339.57M	407.09M	629.19M	349.91M	229.12M
Net Income	105.02M	103.99M	167.53M	356.95M	171.47M	73.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.90B	2.87B	2.94B	2.90B	2.44B	2.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	119.70M	98.25M	187.27M	286.64M	159.78M	124.51M
Total Debt	498.76M	508.51M	575.51M	451.74M	334.90M	330.47M
Total Liabilities	1.15B	1.18B	1.30B	1.30B	1.10B	947.47M
Stockholders Equity	1.70B	1.64B	1.63B	1.60B	1.34B	1.16B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	113.42M	143.57M	282.09M	239.02M	119.88M	59.65M
Operating Cash Flow	160.24M	194.42M	422.16M	458.16M	252.84M	174.95M
Investing Cash Flow	-110.64M	-53.33M	-373.16M	-278.87M	-210.13M	-196.86M
Financing Cash Flow	-89.28M	-201.33M	-148.41M	-52.46M	-7.41M	-22.30M

Hub Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price43.05

Price Trends

50DMA

44.84

Negative

100DMA

41.07

Positive

200DMA

37.94

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.78

Negative

RSI

49.05

Neutral

STOCH

73.64

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HUBG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.31, below the 50-day MA of 44.84, and above the 200-day MA of 37.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HUBG.

Hub Group Risk Analysis

Hub Group disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hub Group reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Hub Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FDX	73 Outperform	$89.94B	17.37	15.87%	1.94%	3.09%	14.94%
JBHT	69 Neutral	$21.84B	31.73	15.79%	0.89%	-1.60%	4.87%
HUBG	68 Neutral	$2.65B	18.11	6.31%	1.14%	-5.79%	-1.57%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
XPO	63 Neutral	$25.12B	50.75	18.26%	―	-0.30%	-11.02%
CHRW	61 Neutral	$22.52B	32.93	32.91%	1.51%	-7.08%	71.39%
LSTR	58 Neutral	$5.60B	44.08	14.41%	2.56%	-0.74%	-32.79%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

HUBG

Hub Group

43.05

4.39

11.35%

CHRW

CH Robinson

189.87

94.06

98.18%

XPO

214.46

101.73

90.24%

FDX

FedEx

384.09

139.47

57.01%

JBHT

JB Hunt

234.92

76.62

48.41%

LSTR

Landstar System

164.51

13.80

9.15%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 03, 2025