Landstar System (LSTR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.03B
• Dividend Yield: 2.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 423.29K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 44.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: -0.74%
• EPS Growth: -32.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,400
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 0.70
• Shares Outstanding: 34,058,727
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 509,839
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 423,287
• PEG Ratio: -1.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.37
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.07
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.91
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.91
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 20.49
• 1Y Price Target: $154.00
• Price Target Upside: -2.27% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.35
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.98B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $152.00 ▼(-3.54% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial resilience (low leverage and ongoing free cash flow) offset by a clear earnings/margin downshift. A cautious earnings update with material claims/insurance pressure and only modest demand/pricing improvement, combined with weak-to-neutral technicals and a high P/E valuation, keeps the overall score in the upper-50s.

Positive Factors

Asset-light, scalable business model

Landstar's asset-light model, built on independent agents and third-party carriers, minimizes capital expenditure and supports scalable growth. This durable structure preserves financial flexibility, enables quick geographic or customer expansion, and helps maintain operating leverage across freight cycles.

Conservative balance sheet

Low leverage and substantial equity (~$796M in 2025) provide lasting financial resilience. This capital structure supports sustained capital returns, weathering of claim-related shocks, and the ability to fund technology or strategic initiatives without materially increasing solvency risk over the medium term.

Strong cash generation and capital returns

FCF roughly matched net income in 2025 and a large cash balance enabled significant buybacks and dividends. Reliable cash generation supports sustained shareholder returns, funds AI/tech investments, and provides a buffer to manage cyclical demand and discrete expense shocks.

Negative Factors

Insurance and claims cost spike

A sharp rise in claims and reserve increases, including multi-million-dollar discrete charges, represents a structural cost risk for an asset-light broker reliant on third-party operators. Persistent elevated claims can permanently raise the operating expense base and squeeze margins absent sustained safety improvements or lower insurance pricing.

Meaningful margin and earnings downshift

Revenue has declined from 2022 highs and margins compressed materially (net margin and EBITDA margin roughly halved versus peaks). Lower earnings power reduces reinvestment capacity and increases reliance on operational mix improvement or pricing recovery to restore historical returns over the medium term.

BCO fleet contraction and mix headwinds

Declining BCO truck counts and softer non-truck revenues limit capacity and blunt variable contribution margin upside. Because Landstar's economics depend on owner-operator capacity and mix, sustainable growth requires fleet re-expansion and rate improvement, which may lag market recovery and prolong margin pressure.

Landstar System Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Landstar System, Inc. provides integrated transportation management solutions in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Transportation Logistics, and Insurance. The Transportation Logistics segment offers a range of transportation services, including truckload and less-than-truckload transportation, rail intermodal, air cargo, ocean cargo, expedited ground and air delivery of time-critical freight, heavy-haul/specialized, U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico cross-border, intra-Mexico, intra-Canada, project cargo, and customs brokerage, as well as offers transportation services to other transportation companies, such as third party logistics, small package and less-than-truckload service providers. It provides truck services through dry and specialty vans of various sizes, unsided/platform trailers, temperature-controlled vans, and containers; rail intermodal services through contracts with domestic and Canadian railroads; and air and ocean services through contracts with domestic and international airlines and ocean lines. This segment serves the automotive parts and assemblies, consumer durables, building products, metals, chemicals, foodstuffs, heavy machinery, retail, electronics, and military equipment industries. The Insurance segment reinsures certain risks of the company's independent contractors. The company markets its services through independent commission sales agents and third party capacity providers. Landstar System, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Landstar makes money primarily through its brokerage services, where it matches shippers with independent truck drivers and carriers. The company generates revenue by charging shippers a fee for arranging transportation and pays carriers a commission for their services. Key revenue streams include truckload services, logistics services, and intermodal transport solutions. Additionally, Landstar benefits from its extensive network of independent agents, who operate as entrepreneurs under the Landstar brand, allowing the company to minimize capital expenditures while maximizing service offerings. Partnerships with various carriers and shippers enhance its operational capacity and market reach, contributing significantly to its earnings.

Landstar System Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: profitability has weakened with revenue down from 2022 highs and materially lower margins, but the balance sheet remains conservatively levered and the company continues to generate positive free cash flow (FCF roughly matching net income in 2025).

Income Statement

Profitability has weakened meaningfully across the cycle: revenue is down from 2022 highs ($7.44B) to 2025 ($4.74B) and margins compressed sharply (net margin ~5.8% in 2021–2022 vs ~2.4% in 2025; EBITDA margin ~8.4% to ~4.2%). The company remains profitable, but the recent trajectory shows a tougher operating environment and less earnings power than prior years.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet looks conservatively positioned with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.13–0.17 since 2023; down from ~0.34–0.35 in 2021–2022). Equity remains substantial (~$796M in 2025) supporting financial flexibility. Returns on equity have come down materially alongside earnings (from very strong levels in 2021–2022 to ~14% in 2025), which is the key offset to an otherwise solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains healthy relative to current earnings, with free cash flow roughly matching net income in 2025 (free cash flow to net income = 1.0) and positive free cash flow growth in 2025. However, operating cash flow has declined from 2022 levels and cash conversion has been uneven year-to-year (operating cash flow coverage ratio ranges roughly ~0.27–0.71 over the period), suggesting some volatility in cash generation through the cycle.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.74B	4.83B	5.31B	7.44B	6.54B
Gross Profit	621.63M	974.88M	1.13B	1.51B	1.32B
EBITDA	197.97M	304.05M	397.73M	625.59M	553.45M
Net Income	115.01M	195.95M	264.39M	430.91M	381.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.64B	1.81B	1.80B	1.93B	2.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	452.23M	566.64M	540.70M	393.54M	251.30M
Total Debt	133.48M	163.34M	132.68M	299.75M	303.52M
Total Liabilities	840.27M	840.87M	817.92M	1.04B	1.18B
Stockholders Equity	795.66M	972.44M	983.92M	887.22M	862.01M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	215.00M	255.56M	367.96M	596.65M	253.48M
Operating Cash Flow	224.88M	286.56M	393.65M	622.66M	276.74M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.36M	-10.50M	-6.48M	-24.77M	-73.34M
Financing Cash Flow	-343.14M	-237.34M	-247.97M	-475.68M	-232.95M

Landstar System Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 157.58
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LSTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 157.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 152.57, above the 50-day MA of 150.16, and above the 200-day MA of 135.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LSTR.

Landstar System Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HUBG	68 Neutral	$2.51B	23.64	6.31%	1.14%	-5.79%	-1.57%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
XPO	63 Neutral	$23.96B	75.05	18.26%	―	-0.30%	-11.02%
CHRW	61 Neutral	$21.04B	36.70	32.91%	1.51%	-7.08%	71.39%
LSTR	58 Neutral	$5.03B	44.21	14.41%	2.56%	-0.74%	-32.79%
GXO	57 Neutral	$7.23B	212.07	1.07%	―	16.94%	-14.01%
FWRD	50 Neutral	$825.89M	-7.13	-63.14%	―	14.54%	87.85%

Landstar System Corporate Events

Landstar System Q4 2025 Results Highlight Profit Pressures

On January 28, 2026, Landstar System reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, showing total revenue of $1.17 billion, down slightly from $1.21 billion a year earlier, and basic and diluted EPS of $0.70, a sharp decline from $1.31 in the 2024 fourth quarter, largely due to significantly higher insurance and claims expenses. While truck transportation revenue of $1.08 billion remained nearly flat year over year and unsided/platform equipment services continued to be a strong growth area, gross profit fell to $86 million from $109 million and operating income roughly halved, reflecting $56 million in elevated insurance and claims costs tied to three serious vehicular accidents and higher actuarial reserves, plus $2.1 million in additional non‑cash impairment charges related to the planned sale of its Mexican subsidiary, Landstar Metro. Revenue mix shifted as ocean, air and rail volumes softened, but truck revenue per load rose about 1% even as load counts slipped 1%, and sequential pricing trends improved through the quarter, with December truck revenue per load 6% above October. Despite profit pressures, Landstar maintained a strong balance sheet with approximately $452 million in cash and short-term investments as of December 27, 2025, continued aggressive capital returns via $37.0 million of share repurchases in the quarter (about $180.9 million for the year) and a declared $0.40 per share quarterly dividend, underscoring management’s confidence in the company’s financial position amid a challenging freight demand and claims environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (LSTR) stock is a Hold with a $171.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Landstar System stock, see the LSTR Stock Forecast page.

Landstar System Declares Special Cash Dividend

On December 3, 2025, Landstar System, Inc.’s Board of Directors declared a special cash dividend of $2.00 per share for its common stockholders. This dividend is set to be paid on January 21, 2026, to those recorded as stockholders by January 6, 2026, reflecting the company’s financial strategy and potential positive impact on shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (LSTR) stock is a Hold with a $129.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Landstar System stock, see the LSTR Stock Forecast page.