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Landstar System (LSTR)
NASDAQ:LSTR
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Landstar System
(NASDAQ:LSTR)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$165.00
▲(2.21% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—sharp revenue and margin declines but supported by low leverage and improving free cash flow—alongside a moderately positive technical trend. A high P/E and earnings-call risks (elevated claims costs, fleet headwinds, and weather volatility) keep the overall score in the mid range despite supportive pricing and heavy haul strength.
Positive Factors
Strong Balance Sheet
A strong balance sheet with minimal leverage enhances financial stability and provides flexibility for strategic investments and growth.
Heavy Haul Revenue Growth
Growth in the heavy haul segment indicates strong demand and operational efficiency, supporting long-term revenue potential.
Board Expansion
Expanding the board with experienced members can enhance governance and strategic decision-making, positively impacting long-term business direction.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue
A decline in revenue suggests challenges in market conditions or competitive pressures, potentially impacting future growth and profitability.
Noncash Impairment Charges
Significant impairment charges can indicate strategic missteps or asset devaluation, affecting financial performance and future earnings.
Insurance Cost Increase
Rising insurance costs can erode profit margins and signal higher operational risks, impacting long-term financial health.
Landstar System (LSTR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.54B
Dividend Yield2.56%
Average Volume (3M)423.29K
Price to Earnings (P/E)48.7
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth-0.74%
EPS Growth-32.79%
CountryUS
Employees1,400
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.70
Shares Outstanding34,344,704
10 Day Avg. Volume509,839
30 Day Avg. Volume423,287
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.26
Price to Book (P/B)6.37
Price to Sales (P/S)1.28
P/FCF Ratio24.24
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.08
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.03
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$154.00Price Target Upside-4.61% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Landstar System Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionLandstar System, Inc. provides integrated transportation management solutions in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Transportation Logistics, and Insurance. The Transportation Logistics segment offers a range of transportation services, including truckload and less-than-truckload transportation, rail intermodal, air cargo, ocean cargo, expedited ground and air delivery of time-critical freight, heavy-haul/specialized, U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico cross-border, intra-Mexico, intra-Canada, project cargo, and customs brokerage, as well as offers transportation services to other transportation companies, such as third party logistics, small package and less-than-truckload service providers. It provides truck services through dry and specialty vans of various sizes, unsided/platform trailers, temperature-controlled vans, and containers; rail intermodal services through contracts with domestic and Canadian railroads; and air and ocean services through contracts with domestic and international airlines and ocean lines. This segment serves the automotive parts and assemblies, consumer durables, building products, metals, chemicals, foodstuffs, heavy machinery, retail, electronics, and military equipment industries. The Insurance segment reinsures certain risks of the company's independent contractors. The company markets its services through independent commission sales agents and third party capacity providers. Landstar System, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyLandstar makes money primarily through its brokerage services, where it matches shippers with independent truck drivers and carriers. The company generates revenue by charging shippers a fee for arranging transportation and pays carriers a commission for their services. Key revenue streams include truckload services, logistics services, and intermodal transport solutions. Additionally, Landstar benefits from its extensive network of independent agents, who operate as entrepreneurs under the Landstar brand, allowing the company to minimize capital expenditures while maximizing service offerings. Partnerships with various carriers and shippers enhance its operational capacity and market reach, contributing significantly to its earnings.
Landstar System Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Landstar System Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 21, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reflects a balanced mix of notable operational strengths and meaningful near-term challenges. Positive takeaways include record heavy haul performance (FY and Q4), resilient variable contribution margin, strong cash generation, active capital returns, meaningful AI and technology investments, improving BCO turnover and above-seasonal sequential pricing. Offsetting these positives were material increases in insurance and claims expense (including discrete charges and reserve increases), a sizable decline in gross profit and margin, modest revenue contraction in key segments and some fleet headwinds. Management emphasized preparedness, continued investment in technology/AI and a strong balance sheet, but the discrete claim-driven earnings pressure and softer revenue mix temper near-term outlook.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Heavy Haul Record and Quarterly Surge
FY2025 heavy haul revenue set a new record of $569 million (≈14% above FY2024). In Q4 heavy haul revenue was approximately $170 million, up ~23% YoY; heavy haul loadings increased ~7% YoY and revenue per heavy haul load rose ~16% YoY.
Strong Cash Generation and Capital Returns
Cash & short-term investments of $452 million at quarter end; operating cash flow for FY2025 was $225 million. During FY2025 the company returned capital via approximately $180 million in share repurchases (≈1.3M shares) and $125 million in dividends; Board declared $0.40 quarterly dividend.
Resilient Variable Contribution Margin
Variable contribution was $166 million in Q4 (vs $166.5M prior-year Q4). Variable contribution margin improved to 14.1% of revenue in Q4 2025 from 13.8% in Q4 2024, demonstrating resilience in the core variable economics.
AI and Technology Investment
Company is dedicating ~50% of 2026 IT CapEx to AI enablement and solutions (contact center AI, agent portal with embedded agentic AI, pricing tools, fraud detection, BCO retention tools), positioning technology as a growth and efficiency driver.
Operational Safety Performance
Accident frequency rate of 0.59 DOT-reportable accidents per million miles in FY2025, slightly better than the company’s trailing 5-year average (0.61) and well below the latest national average cited (FMCSA 2021), reinforcing safety as a competitive differentiator.
Improving BCO Turnover and Recruitment Trends
Trailing 12-month BCO turnover improved to 31.4% at FY2025 year-end from 34.5% a year earlier. Gross truck adds were up ~8.9% YoY in Q4 and gross cancels were down ~5.1% YoY; net truck count decline moderated to -104 trucks in the quarter vs -184 in prior-year quarter.
Sequential Pricing Outperformance
Overall truck revenue per load increased ~1.5% sequentially in Q4 versus Q3 2025, outperforming pre-pandemic seasonal expectations (typical ~1% seasonal increase), and truck revenue per load rose ~1% YoY in Q4 (number of loads down ~1%).
Diversified Customer Base
Business remains highly diversified with over 20,000 customers and no single customer contributing more than 8% of revenue in FY2025; aggregate revenue across the top-5 commodity categories increased ~2% YoY.
Negative Updates
Large Increase in Insurance & Claim Costs
Insurance and claim costs rose to $56.1 million in Q4 2025 vs $30.1 million in Q4 2024. Insurance and claim costs were 12.3% of BCO revenue in Q4 2025 versus 6.7% in Q4 2024, driven by two tragic accidents ($11M pretax charge), a $5.7M broker-liability judgment (company plans to appeal), and a $5.3M increase in actuarial claim reserves.
Material Gross Profit and Margin Decline
Q4 gross profit declined to $85.6 million from $109.4 million YoY and gross profit margin fell to 7.3% of revenue from 9.0% in the prior-year quarter, reflecting weaker top-line mix and elevated claims/insurance expense.
Transportation & Logistics Revenue Contraction
Transportation & Logistics segment revenue decreased ~2.9% YoY in Q4, driven by a ~2% decrease in revenue per load and a ~1% decrease in loads. Non-truck transportation service revenue fell ~28% (~$30M) YoY; excluding a prior-period $16M fraud-related amount, the segment was down ~15% YoY.
BCO Fleet Count Contraction
BCO truck count decreased ~4% YoY (and ~1% sequentially) at FY2025 year-end. Net truck count declined by 104 trucks in Q4; although turnover improved, the fleet contraction remains a headwind to near-term capacity and VCM upside until the fleet re-expands.
Discrete Pretax Charges and Reserves Pressure
Recorded significant discrete pretax items in Q4: $11M (two accidents), $5.7M (judgment), $5.3M (IBNR reserve increase) and $2.1M noncash impairment related to sale process of Landstar Metro, which collectively pressured operating results and EPS.
Decline in Gross Profit Drivers and Mix Headwinds
Revenue hauled on behalf of other trucking companies was down ~15% YoY (11% of transportation revenue vs 13% prior), building products loadings down ~11% YoY, automotive down ~5% and hazmat down ~3%, indicating mixed commodity performance and softer industrial demand.
Reduced Non-Truck Revenue and Metro Sale Reliance
Company is in the process of selling Landstar Metro (Mexican logistics subsidiary); excluding Metro and a prior fraud-related $16M, consolidated revenue decreased ~1% YoY in Q4, highlighting reliance on asset-light truck operations and divestiture impacts on reported revenue.
Significant QoQ Impact from Weather & Seasonality
Winter storm activity in late Jan/early Feb knocked down an estimated 5,000–6,000 dispatch loads, creating near-term volatility in first-quarter volumes and BCO utilization and raising the risk that Q1 margin/volume patterns may deviate from historical seasonality.
Company Guidance
Landstar did not give formal guidance, instead providing first-quarter revenue commentary: they said January truck loads were about 1% below January 2025 (dispatch basis) while January revenue per load was about 4% above January 2025 (processed basis), characterizing January truck revenue per load as modestly outperforming normal seasonality with volumes essentially in line; historically Q4→Q1 trends show ~4% decreases in both loads and revenue per load (typically a mid‑ to high‑single‑digit top‑line decline), and if February and March similarly outperform January the company estimates Q1 2026 revenue could be down only low single digits versus Q4 2025. They noted typical month‑to‑month patterns of January→February revenue per load down ~1.5% and February→March up ~1.8%, and that variable contribution margin (VCM) historically expands 40–60 basis points Q4→Q1 driven by higher BCO mix—but cautioned that unusually strong Q4 2025 BCO utilization (+8% YoY), potential winter‑storm impacts (estimated 5,000–6,000 knocked‑down dispatch loads), and a fractional early‑Q1 decline in BCO truck count could disrupt normal VCM seasonality. They also highlighted BCO metrics (trailing‑12‑month turnover down from 34.5% to 31.4%, Q4 net truck count down 104, gross truck adds +8.9%, gross cancels −5.1%) and said fleet growth in 2026 will depend on rate improvement.Landstar System Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mixed fundamentals: income statement pressure from sharply lower TTM revenue (−25.8%) and declining margins (gross margin down to 17.90%, net margin down to 2.87%), offset by a very strong balance sheet (very low debt-to-equity of 0.033) and improved free-cash-flow growth (+5.53% TTM) with solid cash conversion (FCF to net income 0.93).Income Statement
Landstar System's income statement shows a declining trend in revenue and profitability margins over the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The gross profit margin decreased from 20.17% in 2024 to 17.90% in TTM, and the net profit margin also fell from 4.05% to 2.87%. Revenue growth has been negative, with a significant decline of 25.8% in TTM. Despite these challenges, the company maintains positive EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational efficiency.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a strong financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.033 in TTM, indicating minimal leverage. The return on equity has decreased to 14.78% in TTM from 20.15% in 2024, suggesting reduced profitability on equity. The equity ratio remains stable, showing a solid capital structure with equity financing being a significant component of total assets.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate of 5.53% in TTM, recovering from a decline in previous years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.34, indicating moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.93, highlighting efficient cash conversion from profits.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.79B | 4.83B | 5.31B | 7.44B | 6.54B | 4.14B |
| Gross Profit | 857.55M | 974.88M | 1.13B | 1.51B | 1.32B | 855.76M |
| EBITDA | 254.00M | 304.05M | 397.73M | 625.59M | 553.45M | 326.90M |
| Net Income | 137.26M | 195.95M | 264.39M | 430.91M | 381.52M | 192.11M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.66B | 1.81B | 1.80B | 1.93B | 2.05B | 1.65B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 434.42M | 566.64M | 540.70M | 393.54M | 251.30M | 290.73M |
| Total Debt | 125.12M | 163.34M | 132.68M | 299.75M | 303.52M | 175.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 773.49M | 840.87M | 817.92M | 1.04B | 1.18B | 961.96M |
| Stockholders Equity | 888.70M | 972.44M | 983.92M | 887.22M | 862.01M | 691.84M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 198.88M | 255.56M | 367.96M | 596.65M | 253.48M | 180.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 213.29M | 286.56M | 393.65M | 622.66M | 276.74M | 210.72M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.04M | -10.50M | -6.48M | -24.77M | -73.34M | -28.42M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -306.77M | -237.34M | -247.97M | -475.68M | -232.95M | -252.03M |
Landstar System Technical Analysis
Positive
161.44
Price Trends
146.51
Positive
135.54
Positive
134.68
Positive
Market Momentum
3.49
Negative
66.08
Neutral
82.69
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LSTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 161.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 154.95, above the 50-day MA of 146.51, and above the 200-day MA of 134.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.69 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LSTR.
Landstar System Risk Analysis
Landstar System disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Landstar System reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Landstar System Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $3.21B | 30.23 | 6.31% | 1.14% | -5.79% | -1.57% | |
68 Neutral | $6.66B | 73.75 | 2.94% | ― | 16.94% | -14.01% | |
67 Neutral | $5.54B | 48.73 | 14.41% | 2.56% | -0.74% | -32.79% | |
67 Neutral | $21.08B | 70.18 | 19.26% | ― | -0.30% | -11.02% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $23.48B | 41.15 | 32.91% | 1.51% | -7.08% | 71.39% | |
54 Neutral | $929.63M | -7.33 | -63.14% | ― | 14.54% | 87.85% |
* Industrials Sector Average
LSTR
Landstar System
161.39
4.17
2.65%
CHRW
CH Robinson
197.44
102.88
108.79%
XPO
XPO
185.62
38.71
26.35%
FWRD
Forward Air
28.16
-4.05
-12.57%
HUBG
Hub Group
51.33
8.63
20.21%
GXO
GXO Logistics
56.34
12.49
28.48%
Landstar System Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Landstar System Q4 2025 Results Highlight Profit Pressures
Negative
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Landstar System reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, showing total revenue of $1.17 billion, down slightly from $1.21 billion a year earlier, and basic and diluted EPS of $0.70, a sharp decline from $1.31 in the 2024 fourth quarter, largely due to significantly higher insurance and claims expenses. While truck transportation revenue of $1.08 billion remained nearly flat year over year and unsided/platform equipment services continued to be a strong growth area, gross profit fell to $86 million from $109 million and operating income roughly halved, reflecting $56 million in elevated insurance and claims costs tied to three serious vehicular accidents and higher actuarial reserves, plus $2.1 million in additional non‑cash impairment charges related to the planned sale of its Mexican subsidiary, Landstar Metro. Revenue mix shifted as ocean, air and rail volumes softened, but truck revenue per load rose about 1% even as load counts slipped 1%, and sequential pricing trends improved through the quarter, with December truck revenue per load 6% above October. Despite profit pressures, Landstar maintained a strong balance sheet with approximately $452 million in cash and short-term investments as of December 27, 2025, continued aggressive capital returns via $37.0 million of share repurchases in the quarter (about $180.9 million for the year) and a declared $0.40 per share quarterly dividend, underscoring management’s confidence in the company’s financial position amid a challenging freight demand and claims environment.
The most recent analyst rating on (LSTR) stock is a Hold with a $171.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Landstar System stock, see the LSTR Stock Forecast page.
Dividends
Landstar System Declares Special Cash Dividend
Positive
Dec 4, 2025
On December 3, 2025, Landstar System, Inc.’s Board of Directors declared a special cash dividend of $2.00 per share for its common stockholders. This dividend is set to be paid on January 21, 2026, to those recorded as stockholders by January 6, 2026, reflecting the company’s financial strategy and potential positive impact on shareholder value.
The most recent analyst rating on (LSTR) stock is a Hold with a $129.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Landstar System stock, see the LSTR Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board Changes
Landstar System Expands Board with New Appointments
Neutral
Oct 30, 2025
On October 30, 2025, Landstar System, Inc. announced the election of Barr Blanton and Melanie Housey Hart to its Board of Directors, effective October 31, 2025. The appointments expand the Board to ten members and are set to expire at the company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders. Both appointees meet the independence and financial literacy requirements under relevant securities regulations and have been appointed to several key committees, including the Audit and Compensation Committees. They will receive compensation in the form of restricted stock awards and annual fees, with pro-rated payments for the fourth quarter of 2025.
The most recent analyst rating on (LSTR) stock is a Hold with a $130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Landstar System stock, see the LSTR Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.