Forward Air (FWRD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $901.28M
• Dividend Yield: 0.86%
• Average Volume (3M): 620.83K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.73
• Revenue Growth: 30.12%
• EPS Growth: 79.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,319
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 75
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 30,791,899
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 575,544
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 620,832
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.19
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.52
• 1Y Price Target: $35.67
• Price Target Upside: 17.41% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $32.00 ▲(5.33% Upside)

Forward Air's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by declining revenues, high leverage, and liquidity concerns. While technical analysis shows some positive momentum, the valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings. The earnings call provides a mixed outlook with operational improvements but ongoing revenue challenges.

Positive Factors

Company Transformation

Forward Air continues to transition into a more streamlined operation with the ability to grow the business.

Financial Flexibility

The company has achieved its ~$75mm run-rate cost synergy target slightly ahead of schedule and realized additional savings from headcount and terminal consolidation, indicating successful integration efforts.

Valuation Opportunity

There is opportunity for Forward Air to close the valuation gap with its peers, as integration efforts are largely completed, customer attrition is mitigated, and going concern risks have subsided.

Negative Factors

Earnings Estimates

The weak freight environment and cost savings that are largely behind the company lead to lowering earnings estimates.

Freight Market Conditions

Forward Air needs a better freight market for further operating leverage.

LTL Segment Performance

The company needs to see more quarters of LTL segment improvement as it has a long way to go.

Forward Air Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) is a leading asset-light transportation and logistics services provider based in the United States. The company operates primarily in the expedited freight sector, offering a range of services including ground transportation, air freight, and intermodal services. FWRD primarily serves the needs of customers in the retail, manufacturing, and automotive sectors, providing tailored solutions that prioritize speed and efficiency.

How the Company Makes Money

Forward Air generates revenue through several key streams, primarily by providing expedited ground transportation services, which involve moving freight quickly across the U.S. and Canada. The company also operates an air freight segment that complements its ground services, allowing for a more comprehensive logistics solution. Intermodal transportation, which combines multiple modes of transport, is another significant revenue stream. Additionally, Forward Air has developed strategic partnerships with various carriers and logistics providers, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its market reach. The company's asset-light model allows it to maintain lower overhead costs, focusing on operational efficiency and high service levels, which contribute positively to its profit margins.

Forward Air Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Forward Air faces financial challenges with declining profitability, high leverage, and reduced equity. Despite some resilience in cash flows, operational inefficiencies and financial risk remain significant concerns.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals declining profitability with a negative net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and the last annual report. Revenue growth is present but overshadowed by significant declines in gross and net profit margins due to rising costs and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins in recent periods.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio significantly above 1, indicating potential financial risk. Stockholders' equity has decreased substantially over the period, negatively impacting the equity ratio. These factors suggest increased financial instability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates some improvement with positive free cash flow in the TTM period, though operating cash flow remains volatile. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is concerning due to negative net income, suggesting operational challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.52B	2.47B	1.37B	1.97B	1.66B	1.27B
Gross Profit	297.06M	339.65M	330.15M	546.82M	365.33M	229.11M
EBITDA	249.80M	-916.64M	145.62M	290.14M	179.60M	111.05M
Net Income	-173.04M	-816.97M	167.35M	193.19M	105.86M	23.73M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.76B	2.80B	2.98B	1.21B	1.12B	1.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	95.13M	104.90M	121.97M	45.82M	37.32M	40.25M
Total Debt	481.39M	2.15B	1.95B	266.78M	320.07M	243.24M
Total Liabilities	2.54B	2.52B	2.22B	500.83M	524.17M	500.44M
Stockholders Equity	151.79M	201.73M	764.26M	707.24M	593.65M	547.33M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.48M	-112.46M	150.66M	218.36M	81.15M	63.84M
Operating Cash Flow	40.80M	-75.40M	181.39M	259.09M	120.26M	84.11M
Investing Cash Flow	-40.30M	-1.61B	174.84M	-104.46M	-88.31M	-82.71M
Financing Cash Flow	-10.82M	-163.83M	1.55B	-146.12M	-34.89M	-26.45M

Forward Air Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 30.38
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FWRD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.59, above the 50-day MA of 28.63, and above the 200-day MA of 25.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FWRD.

Forward Air Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HUBG	70 Outperform	$2.29B	22.43	6.03%	1.34%	-5.37%	-11.26%
XPO	69 Neutral	$14.95B	43.53	21.10%	―	-0.11%	-4.28%
LSTR	69 Neutral	$4.66B	27.55	17.47%	2.62%	-2.10%	-22.19%
CHRW	69 Neutral	$15.10B	29.32	32.43%	1.93%	-2.55%	59.07%
JBHT	66 Neutral	$13.96B	26.21	14.33%	1.20%	-2.24%	-5.43%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.73B	15.65	7.61%	2.01%	2.80%	-14.92%
FWRD	54 Neutral	$901.28M	―	-78.76%	0.86%	30.12%	79.23%

Forward Air Corporate Events

Forward Air Appoints Jerome Lorrain as Executive Chairman

On June 11, 2025, Forward Air Corporation appointed Jerome Lorrain as Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors. His compensation package includes a base salary, equity awards, and performance-based restricted stock, with future incentives tied to long-term performance goals. This strategic appointment and compensation structure are designed to align with the company’s ongoing strategic review and long-term growth objectives.