tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Forward Air Corp. (FWRD)
NASDAQ:FWRD
Advertisement

Forward Air (FWRD) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
271 Followers

Top Page

FWRD

Forward Air

(NASDAQ:FWRD)

Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$31.00
▼(-3.46%Downside)
The overall score reflects financial instability and valuation concerns, which are partially offset by positive technical indicators and strategic guidance from the earnings call. The high technical score suggests potential short-term gains, while the financial and valuation scores highlight significant risks.
Positive Factors
Cost Synergies
The company has achieved its ~$75mm run-rate cost synergy target slightly ahead of schedule and realized additional savings from headcount and terminal consolidation, indicating successful integration efforts.
Management Strategy
The new management team has mitigated customer attrition, laid a credible go-forward strategy, and made significant progress on integrating the acquired company, reducing risks and providing fundamental upside.
Potential Acquisition
The options market suggests a potential take-out price, with a decent premium, creating a favorable risk/reward situation for investors.
Negative Factors
Freight Environment
The company needs an improved freight environment to achieve its goal of doubling revenue from $2.5B to $5B.
Market Environment
The LTL market environment remains soft, and the management has a long way to go to repair the business from the actions of the previous management.
Strategic Review
Activist shareholders are getting impatient with the lack of any results from the strategic review announced earlier.

Forward Air (FWRD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Forward Air Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionForward Air Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset-light freight and logistics company in the United States and Canada. It operates in two segments, Expedited Freight and Intermodal. The Expedited Freight segment provides expedited regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services; local pick-up and delivery services; and other services, which include final mile, truckload, shipment consolidation and deconsolidation, warehousing, customs brokerage, and other handling. This segment also offers expedited truckload brokerage, dedicated fleet, and high security and temperature-controlled logistics services. The Intermodal segment provides intermodal container drayage services; and contract, and container freight station warehouse and handling services. It serves freight forwarders, third-party logistics companies, integrated air cargo carriers and passenger, passenger and cargo airlines, steamship lines, and retailers. Forward Air Corporation was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Greeneville, Tennessee.
How the Company Makes MoneyForward Air generates revenue through its comprehensive range of logistics services, primarily focusing on expedited less-than-truckload (LTL) services. The company earns money by transporting freight that requires fast, time-definite delivery, often at premium rates compared to standard shipping services. Additionally, Forward Air offers truckload services, where it provides dedicated trucks for larger shipments, and intermodal services, which involve the transportation of goods using multiple modes of transportation, such as trucks and rail. The final mile delivery solutions further enhance its revenue by offering end-to-end logistics services, especially valuable for e-commerce and retail clients. Partnerships with key players in various industries, along with a robust network of transportation hubs and terminals, significantly contribute to Forward Air's earnings by ensuring efficient and widespread service coverage.

Forward Air Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 86.36%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mix of positive and negative aspects. On the positive side, there were improvements in EBITDA, free cash flow, and specific segment performances like Intermodal. However, these were offset by revenue declines in the Expedited Freight segment and ongoing market uncertainties. While there were notable achievements, the challenges and uncertainties suggest a cautious outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increase in EBITDA and Free Cash Flow
Consolidated EBITDA reported at $69 million, up from $63 million a year ago. The last 12 months consolidated EBITDA was $313 million. Positive free cash flow generated, increasing liquidity by $11 million to $393 million.
Improvement in Expedited Freight Segment
Corrective pricing strategies led to an improvement in the Expedited Freight segment with an EBITDA margin of 10.4%, up almost 400 basis points from last quarter.
Growth in Intermodal Segment
Intermodal segment revenue increased by 11% to $62 million due to a 7.4% increase in revenue per shipment and a 2.9% increase in the number of shipments.
Sales and Revenue Transparency
Detailed revenue breakdown by service and region was provided, enhancing transparency into business operations. Approximately 70% of business was from ground transportation in North America.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Expedited Freight Revenue
Revenue at Expedited Freight decreased by 8.8% to $249 million, driven by a 10.9% decrease in year-over-year tonnage per day.
Sequential Revenue Decline
Consolidated revenue decreased 3.1% or $20 million from $633 million in the fourth quarter of last year to $613 million this quarter.
Ongoing Market Uncertainties
Concerns about macroeconomic headwinds and their potential impact on future performance were highlighted, with uncertain impacts from potential tariff changes.
Company Guidance
During the Forward Air's First Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided several key metrics and guidance for the future. They reported a consolidated EBITDA of $69 million, up from $63 million a year ago, maintaining the same level as the previous quarter. They achieved a 10.4% EBITDA margin for the quarter, improving by almost 400 basis points from the last quarter. Free cash flow was positive, and liquidity increased by $11 million to $393 million. The company aims to double its revenue from $2.5 billion to $5 billion over the next five years, contingent on a return to a normal freight environment. They are focused on integrating two legacy companies to streamline operations and support growth. Approximately 70% of their 2024 revenue was from ground transportation, and the company is working on improving the Expedited Freight segment's margin. They also plan to increase transparency by transitioning to reporting financial results by service.

Forward Air Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Forward Air faces financial challenges, with declining profitability and stability issues reflected in high leverage and reduced equity. While cash flows show some resilience, the company must address operational inefficiencies and financial risk to improve its financial health.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement reveals declining profitability with a negative net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and the last annual report. Revenue growth is present but overshadowed by significant declines in gross and net profit margins due to rising costs and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins in recent periods.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet shows high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio significantly above 1, indicating potential financial risk. Stockholders' equity has decreased substantially over the period, negatively impacting the equity ratio. These factors suggest increased financial instability.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis indicates some improvement with positive free cash flow in the TTM period, though operating cash flow remains volatile. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is concerning due to negative net income, suggesting operational challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.55B2.47B1.37B1.97B1.66B1.27B
Gross Profit317.65M339.65M330.15M546.82M365.33M229.11M
EBITDA-921.27M-916.64M145.62M290.14M198.85M111.05M
Net Income-805.89M-816.97M167.35M193.19M105.86M52.77M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.80B2.80B2.98B1.21B1.12B1.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments116.31M104.90M121.97M45.82M37.32M40.25M
Total Debt2.15B2.15B1.95B277.85M320.07M243.24M
Total Liabilities2.58B2.52B2.22B500.83M524.17M500.44M
Stockholders Equity154.63M201.73M764.26M707.24M593.65M547.33M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow27.98M-112.46M150.66M218.36M81.15M63.84M
Operating Cash Flow72.35M-75.40M181.39M259.09M120.26M84.11M
Investing Cash Flow-50.37M-1.61B174.84M-104.46M-88.31M-82.71M
Financing Cash Flow-10.43M-163.83M1.55B-146.12M-34.89M-26.45M

Forward Air Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price32.11
Price Trends
50DMA
22.65
Positive
100DMA
20.08
Positive
200DMA
26.76
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.17
Negative
RSI
81.10
Negative
STOCH
88.19
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FWRD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.51, above the 50-day MA of 22.65, and above the 200-day MA of 26.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.10 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.19 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FWRD.

Forward Air Risk Analysis

Forward Air disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Forward Air reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Forward Air Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$15.99B42.5626.24%1.94%60.91%
70
Neutral
$12.25B24.6532.11%2.41%-0.22%65.52%
69
Neutral
$2.21B21.156.35%1.39%-4.63%-18.94%
68
Neutral
$4.98B28.2918.34%2.44%-4.72%-22.46%
66
Neutral
$14.85B27.2114.33%1.17%-2.24%-5.43%
65
Neutral
$11.16B15.865.39%1.92%3.11%-24.90%
54
Neutral
$950.73M-147.96%0.86%50.11%-682.50%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FWRD
Forward Air
32.11
8.02
33.29%
CHRW
CH Robinson
102.71
15.65
17.98%
XPO
XPO
138.31
27.85
25.21%
HUBG
Hub Group
36.10
-9.19
-20.29%
JBHT
JB Hunt
149.31
-19.40
-11.50%
LSTR
Landstar System
142.64
-44.57
-23.81%

Forward Air Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Forward Air Appoints Jerome Lorrain as Executive Chairman
Neutral
Jul 14, 2025

On June 11, 2025, Forward Air Corporation appointed Jerome Lorrain as Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors. His compensation package includes a base salary, equity awards, and performance-based restricted stock, with future incentives tied to long-term performance goals. This strategic appointment and compensation structure are designed to align with the company’s ongoing strategic review and long-term growth objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (FWRD) stock is a Hold with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Forward Air stock, see the FWRD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2025