Forward Air (FWRD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $929.63M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 775.67K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.00
• Revenue Growth: 14.54%
• EPS Growth: 87.85%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,319
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): -0.52
• Shares Outstanding: 31,248,234
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 925,609
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 775,667
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.36
• P/FCF Ratio: -7.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.00
• 1Y Price Target: $38.50
• Price Target Upside: 36.72% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $28.00 ▼(-0.57% Downside)

Forward Air's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including negative profitability and high leverage, which weigh heavily on its financial performance score. While technical analysis shows some positive momentum, valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield further impact the score. The earnings call provides some optimism with strategic initiatives and consistent EBITDA performance, but ongoing market challenges remain a concern.

Positive Factors

One Ground Network

Unifying U.S. and Canadian operations through One Ground Network creates durable operational scale and routing efficiencies. Consolidated networks reduce empty miles, improve asset utilization, and strengthen cross-border service reliability, supporting sustained margin improvement and customer retention over months.

Tech Stack Rationalization

Consolidating onto a single ERP and rationalizing tech reduces recurring IT complexity and integration costs, and improves operational metrics and decision-making. These changes typically yield lasting productivity gains, lower operating expense growth, and faster scalability as volumes recover or shift across services.

Improved Cash Flow & Liquidity

Rising cash from operations and a meaningful liquidity cushion provide financial flexibility to fund network investments, deleveraging, or strategic alternatives. Sustained operational cash generation supports resilience through freight cycles and enables execution of efficiency programs without immediate reliance on external financing.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio near 3.4 denotes heavy leverage that constrains strategic flexibility and increases refinancing and interest-rate risk. Over a multi-month horizon, high leverage limits the company's ability to invest in growth, absorb demand shocks, or pursue M&A without materially altering capital structure or raising costly capital.

Negative Profitability

A persistent negative net margin signals structural issues converting revenue into profit, reducing internal funding for capital expenditures and efficiency programs. Unless margins normalize, the company may face sustained earnings weakness that impairs reinvestment capacity and long-term shareholder value creation.

Freight Recession & Volume Declines

An extended freight downturn and falling tonnage/LTL volumes create structural revenue pressure across Forward Air's expedited and intermodal services. Reduced base volumes erode density, raise unit costs, and compress margins, making recovery dependent on broader industry demand improvements rather than company-specific fixes.

Forward Air Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Forward Air Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset-light freight and logistics company in the United States and Canada. It operates in two segments, Expedited Freight and Intermodal. The Expedited Freight segment provides expedited regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services; local pick-up and delivery services; and other services, which include final mile, truckload, shipment consolidation and deconsolidation, warehousing, customs brokerage, and other handling. This segment also offers expedited truckload brokerage, dedicated fleet, and high security and temperature-controlled logistics services. The Intermodal segment provides intermodal container drayage services; and contract, and container freight station warehouse and handling services. It serves freight forwarders, third-party logistics companies, integrated air cargo carriers and passenger, passenger and cargo airlines, steamship lines, and retailers. Forward Air Corporation was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Greeneville, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Forward Air generates revenue primarily through its diverse service offerings in the logistics and transportation sector. The company's key revenue streams include expedited freight services, which cater to customers requiring quick delivery of goods, and intermodal services that involve the combination of different modes of transportation. Additionally, Forward Air benefits from its pool distribution services, where it consolidates freight from multiple shippers to optimize delivery routes and reduce costs. The company also engages in partnerships with airlines and other logistics providers, enhancing its service capabilities and market reach. These partnerships, along with a focus on operational efficiency and customer satisfaction, contribute significantly to Forward Air's earnings.

Forward Air Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Forward Air faces several financial challenges, including declining revenue, negative profitability, and high leverage. While there are some positive cash flow trends, the overall financial health is concerning. The company needs to address its profitability and leverage issues to improve its financial stability and growth prospects.

Income Statement

Forward Air's income statement shows significant volatility. The TTM data reveals a negative net profit margin of -6.21%, indicating recent profitability challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a sharp decline in the latest period. Historical data shows periods of positive growth, but the recent downturn raises concerns about the company's ability to sustain revenue and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects high leverage, with a TTM debt-to-equity ratio of 3.38, indicating significant reliance on debt financing. The return on equity is negative, highlighting profitability issues. While the company has had periods of stronger equity ratios in the past, the current financial structure suggests potential financial risk.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some positive trends, such as a significant improvement in free cash flow growth in the TTM period. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting challenges in converting earnings into cash. The company's ability to generate free cash flow relative to net income has been inconsistent, indicating potential liquidity concerns.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.50B	2.47B	1.37B	1.68B	1.39B	1.27B
Gross Profit	297.42M	339.65M	330.15M	491.67M	313.95M	229.11M
EBITDA	263.18M	-916.64M	145.62M	290.14M	181.99M	111.05M
Net Income	-115.89M	-816.97M	167.35M	193.19M	105.86M	23.73M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.79B	2.80B	2.98B	1.21B	1.12B	1.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	140.35M	104.90M	121.97M	45.82M	37.32M	40.25M
Total Debt	2.16B	2.15B	1.95B	266.78M	320.07M	243.24M
Total Liabilities	2.60B	2.52B	2.22B	500.83M	524.17M	500.06M
Stockholders Equity	139.78M	201.73M	764.26M	707.24M	593.65M	547.33M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	15.48M	-112.46M	150.66M	218.36M	81.15M	64.40M
Operating Cash Flow	43.49M	-75.40M	181.39M	259.09M	120.26M	84.67M
Investing Cash Flow	-34.68M	-1.61B	174.84M	-104.46M	-88.31M	-82.71M
Financing Cash Flow	-8.04M	-163.83M	1.55B	-146.12M	-34.89M	-26.45M

Forward Air Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 28.16
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FWRD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.04, above the 50-day MA of 26.20, and above the 200-day MA of 24.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FWRD.

Forward Air Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RLGT	73 Outperform	$335.75M	22.57	6.94%	―	16.42%	79.46%
JBHT	69 Neutral	$21.73B	37.26	15.79%	0.89%	-1.60%	4.87%
HUBG	68 Neutral	$3.21B	30.23	6.31%	1.14%	-5.79%	-1.57%
LSTR	67 Neutral	$5.54B	48.73	14.41%	2.56%	-0.74%	-32.79%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CHRW	61 Neutral	$23.48B	41.15	32.91%	1.51%	-7.08%	71.39%
FWRD	54 Neutral	$929.63M	-7.33	-63.14%	―	14.54%	87.85%