Forward Air Corp. (FWRD)
NASDAQ:FWRD
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Forward Air
(NASDAQ:FWRD)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$21.00
▼(-5.32% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/17/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—ongoing losses and very high leverage—despite improving cash flow. Earnings call commentary supports a moderate improvement trend (better adjusted EBITDA and cash generation), while technicals show a short-term bounce but still-bearish longer-term trend signals. Valuation provides limited support due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Niche time‑definite logistics model
The company's focus on time‑definite, expedited freight creates a durable niche with high service requirements and customer stickiness. Specialized, time-sensitive lanes support pricing power, recurring contractual volumes, and differentiation versus commodity carriers over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Extremely high leverage
Very elevated leverage severely limits financial flexibility and heightens interest and refinancing risk. Large absolute debt balances increase sensitivity to operating setbacks and constrain capital allocation, making sustained recovery and strategic moves harder without material deleveraging.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Niche time‑definite logistics model
The company's focus on time‑definite, expedited freight creates a durable niche with high service requirements and customer stickiness. Specialized, time-sensitive lanes support pricing power, recurring contractual volumes, and differentiation versus commodity carriers over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
Forward Air (FWRD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$511.81M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)775.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.23
Revenue Growth0.84%
EPS Growth88.55%
CountryUS
Employees6,319
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.52
Shares Outstanding31,554,245
10 Day Avg. Volume925,609
30 Day Avg. Volume775,667
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)6.83
Price to Sales (P/S)0.31
P/FCF Ratio50.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.92
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$36.00Price Target Upside62.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.60B
Forward Air Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Forward Air Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset-light freight and logistics company in the United States and Canada. It operates in two segments, Expedited Freight and Intermodal. The Expedited Freight segment provide...
How the Company Makes Money
Forward Air makes money by charging customers for transportation and logistics services, with revenue primarily tied to freight volumes, shipment characteristics, and service levels. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) expedited LTL and tim...
Forward Air Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated multiple operational and financial improvements: strong adjusted EBITDA growth (+$40M), substantial Omni Logistics gains (EBITDA nearly doubled, margin +360 bps), Expedited Freight margin recovery (+110 bps full year; Q4 margin +350 bps) and a notable $113M year-over-year improvement in operating cash flow. These positives were tempered by persistent industry headwinds—declining tonnage, weak Intermodal results, a $20M software impairment, a slightly lower consolidated EBITDA year-over-year and ongoing uncertainty around the strategic alternatives review. Overall, the company emphasized transformation, cost discipline and positioning for recovery, and the tangible improvements in profitability, margins and cash generation outweigh the remaining challenges.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA increased $40 million year-over-year to $293 million in 2025 from $253 million in 2024, reflecting improved earnings quality as pro forma and synergy savings rolled off.
Negative Updates
Intermodal Headwinds and Volume Declines
Intermodal faced challenging port activity and trade-related softness: Q4 reported EBITDA fell to $7 million from $10 million a year ago and margin declined to 14.2% from 17.5%. Full-year Intermodal EBITDA modestly decreased to $35 million from $37 million, and margin slipped to 15.1% from 16.0%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA increased $40 million year-over-year to $293 million in 2025 from $253 million in 2024, reflecting improved earnings quality as pro forma and synergy savings rolled off.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s guidance for 2026 is that volume declines should begin to moderate as they lap corrective pricing actions, with a continued focus on profitable long‑term growth, finishing the one‑ERP rollout by year‑end, consolidating HRIS globally, and capturing significant operating leverage where each incremental shipment is expected to be disproportionately accretive; key metrics they cited include FY‑2025 consolidated EBITDA of $307M (in line with $311M in 2024) and adjusted EBITDA of $293M (+$40M vs. $253M), Q4 consolidated EBITDA of $77M (vs. $72M a year ago) with quarterly consolidated EBITDA running roughly $73M–$79M, Expedited Freight Q4 EBITDA $25M (10.1% margin vs. 6.6% prior) and FY margin up 110 bps to 10.9%, Omni Q4 EBITDA $36M (10.0% margin) and FY Omni EBITDA $124M (vs. $67M; margin +360 bps to 9.2%), Intermodal Q4 EBITDA $7M (14.2% margin) and FY Intermodal EBITDA $35M (15.1% margin), Q4 operating cash use $23M (same as prior Q4) and FY cash from operations $44M (vs. -$69M prior, a $113M improvement), non‑GAAP operating cash flow $32M Q4/$209M FY, year‑end liquidity $367M ($106M cash + $261M revolver availability) vs. $105M cash/$382M liquidity a year ago, a noncash $20M software impairment (addable under the credit agreement), and FY cash items including ~ $166M interest, ~$25M finance leases and ~$27M CapEx (CapEx may be slightly higher but similar as a percent of revenue); they noted no meaningful maturities for almost five years and emphasized that a sustained recovery will require continued spot‑rate increases, rejections and PMI consistently above 50.Forward Air Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
14
Very Negative
Cash Flow
33
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.50B | 2.47B | 1.37B | 1.68B | 1.39B |
| Gross Profit | 510.94M | 339.65M | 330.15M | 491.67M | 313.95M |
| EBITDA | 186.19M | -916.64M | 145.62M | 290.14M | 181.99M |
| Net Income | -107.80M | -816.97M | 167.35M | 193.19M | 105.86M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.74B | 2.80B | 2.98B | 1.21B | 1.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 106.00M | 104.90M | 121.97M | 45.82M | 37.32M |
| Total Debt | 2.16B | 2.15B | 1.95B | 266.78M | 320.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.58B | 2.52B | 2.22B | 500.83M | 524.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 113.34M | 201.73M | 764.26M | 707.24M | 593.65M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 15.27M | -112.46M | 150.66M | 218.36M | 81.15M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 44.38M | -75.40M | 181.39M | 259.09M | 120.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -26.91M | -1.61B | 174.84M | -104.46M | -88.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -17.53M | -163.83M | 1.55B | -146.12M | -34.89M |
Forward Air Technical Analysis
Neutral
22.18
Price Trends
21.52
Positive
23.78
Negative
24.84
Negative
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
68.09
Neutral
93.85
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FWRD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 22.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.83, above the 50-day MA of 21.52, and below the 200-day MA of 24.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.85 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FWRD.
Forward Air Risk Analysis
Forward Air disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Forward Air reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Forward Air Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $6.00B | 33.75 | 14.64% | 2.56% | -0.79% | -28.21% | |
71 Outperform | $22.48B | 35.63 | 17.30% | 0.89% | 0.58% | 17.20% | |
68 Neutral | $2.51B | 18.11 | 6.30% | 1.14% | -5.79% | -1.57% | |
65 Neutral | $19.01B | 33.78 | 32.52% | 1.51% | -6.68% | 18.19% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $357.75M | 13.99 | 6.24% | ― | 4.04% | 0.57% | |
52 Neutral | $511.81M | -6.83 | -77.06% | ― | 0.84% | 88.55% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FWRD
Forward Air
16.22
-0.53
-3.16%
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RLGT
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29.93%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.