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ZTO Express
(NYSE:ZTO)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$25.00
â–˛(4.78% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:07/10/26
The score is primarily driven by solid underlying profitability and operating cash flow, tempered by weaker recent trendlines (slowing growth, margin compression, higher debt, and softer free-cash-flow conversion). Valuation is a positive offset (moderate P/E and ~3% yield), while technicals are mixed and slightly detract due to uneven moving-average positioning and stretched short-term momentum.
Positive Factors
Operating cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow (~12.4B TTM) shows the core logistics operations consistently convert sales into cash. That durable cash generation supports network investments, working-capital needs, dividend/buyback programs, and resilience to cyclical slowdowns over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Rising debt and stepped-up leverage
A material increase in debt reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate risk. The step-up in leverage could constrain capital allocation (capex, dividends, buybacks) or force deleveraging if industry volumes soften, making the company more vulnerable over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow (~12.4B TTM) shows the core logistics operations consistently convert sales into cash. That durable cash generation supports network investments, working-capital needs, dividend/buyback programs, and resilience to cyclical slowdowns over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
ZTO Express (ZTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.15B
Dividend Yield2.98%
Average Volume (3M)1.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.4
Beta (1Y)0.37
Revenue Growth15.87%
EPS Growth1.18%
CountryUS
Employees23,399
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.61
Shares Outstanding557,330,930
10 Day Avg. Volume1,279,146
30 Day Avg. Volume1,319,129
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio14.48
Price to Book (P/B)1.75
Price to Sales (P/S)2.44
P/FCF Ratio19.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.85Price Target Upside16.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)13.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$57.55B
ZTO Express Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is a leading provider of expedited parcel delivery and integrated logistics services throughout the People's Republic of China. The company facilitates shipments for a diverse clientele, including online retailers, tradit...
How the Company Makes Money
ZTO Express primarily makes money by charging for parcel delivery and related logistics services across its network. Its core revenue stream comes from express delivery services: ZTO collects service fees associated with handling parcels (e.g., pi...
ZTO Express Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive operational and strategic picture: ZTO delivered above-industry parcel growth, strong revenue growth, robust operating cash flow, significant retail segment expansion, and measurable cost and productivity gains from automation and AI. Management also strengthened shareholder returns (dividend and $1.5B buyback) and provided upbeat 2026 guidance. However, the company faces margin pressure driven by higher total costs, rising KA unit costs and increased volume incentives, which led to declines in gross profit and operating profit for the year. On balance, the financial and strategic positives (volume outperformance, cash generation, technology-driven efficiency, and enhanced capital returns) outweigh the profitability headwinds, while management has explicit plans to address cost and network fairness issues.Positive Updates
Strong Volume Growth and Market Share Expansion
Q4 parcel volume reached 10.56 billion, up 9.2% year-over-year; full-year 2025 parcel volume was 38.5 billion, up 13.3% year-over-year. ZTO's market share expanded by 0.8 percentage points in Q4 while the industry reached a 200 billion parcel milestone with ~13.6% growth for the year.
Negative Updates
Gross Profit and Margin Compression
Gross profit declined 2.1% in Q4 to RMB 3.7 billion and declined 10.5% for the full year to RMB 12.3 billion. Gross profit margin fell 3.7 percentage points to 25.4% in Q4 and 6 percentage points to 25.0% for the year, reflecting margin pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Volume Growth and Market Share Expansion
Q4 parcel volume reached 10.56 billion, up 9.2% year-over-year; full-year 2025 parcel volume was 38.5 billion, up 13.3% year-over-year. ZTO's market share expanded by 0.8 percentage points in Q4 while the industry reached a 200 billion parcel milestone with ~13.6% growth for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 parcel‑volume growth of 10–13% YoY, implying annual parcel volume of 42.37–43.52 billion (vs. 38.5 billion in 2025) and an intent to outpace the Postal Bureau’s ~8% industry forecast; they emphasized quality and network stability while pursuing cost and last‑mile efficiency. On capital allocation, the Board approved a semi‑annual cash dividend of $0.39 per ADS (40% payout ratio), a new 24‑month $1.5 billion share buyback program through March 2028, and an enhanced policy to return no less than 50% of prior‑year adjusted net income (2025 adjusted net income: RMB 9.5 billion). They also issued $1.5 billion of 5‑year convertible bonds (net ~ $1.4 billion) to fund buybacks, reported having completed roughly $600 million of repurchases already and plan to repurchase the remaining ~ $800 million over the coming year.ZTO Express Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 51.23B | 47.76B | 44.28B | 38.42B | 35.38B | 30.41B |
| Gross Profit | 12.75B | 11.94B | 13.72B | 11.66B | 9.04B | 6.59B |
| EBITDA | 13.13B | 14.37B | 15.04B | 13.85B | 11.15B | 8.09B |
| Net Income | 9.16B | 8.83B | 8.82B | 8.75B | 6.81B | 4.75B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 97.78B | 91.08B | 92.34B | 88.47B | 78.52B | 62.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 30.49B | 25.68B | 22.31B | 19.79B | 17.45B | 12.72B |
| Total Debt | 21.79B | 11.48B | 17.35B | 15.44B | 13.12B | 4.44B |
| Total Liabilities | 34.90B | 23.90B | 29.67B | 28.18B | 24.05B | 13.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 62.12B | 66.43B | 62.06B | 59.80B | 54.03B | 48.64B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.25B | 5.89B | 5.53B | 6.69B | 4.07B | -2.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.39B | 11.97B | 11.43B | 13.36B | 11.48B | 7.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.84B | -4.83B | -5.98B | -12.25B | -16.04B | -8.76B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.48B | -10.57B | -5.00B | -769.84M | 7.06B | -2.90B |
ZTO Express Technical Analysis
Negative
23.86
Price Trends
23.23
Negative
23.76
Negative
22.71
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.14
Positive
44.18
Neutral
32.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ZTO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.69, above the 50-day MA of 23.23, and above the 200-day MA of 22.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ZTO.
ZTO Express Risk Analysis
ZTO Express disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ZTO Express reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We are a "controlled company" within the meaning of the NYSE Listed Company Manual and, as a result, may rely on exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements that provide protection to shareholders of other companies. Q4, 2023
2.
Conversion of our convertible senior notes may dilute the ownership interest of the existing shareholders. Q4, 2023
3.
Provisions of our convertible senior notes could discourage an acquisition of us by a third-party. Q4, 2023
ZTO Express Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $24.47B | 27.33 | 40.68% | 0.90% | 6.77% | 12.05% | |
72 Outperform | $26.61B | 40.25 | 18.75% | 0.62% | 5.28% | 28.24% | |
69 Neutral | $78.42B | 18.06 | 15.11% | 1.50% | 7.73% | 10.07% | |
68 Neutral | $17.15B | 13.40 | 14.20% | 2.89% | 15.87% | 1.18% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $86.80B | 18.93 | 29.07% | 5.71% | -0.18% | -19.99% | |
58 Neutral | $16.92B | 27.27 | 36.01% | 1.35% | -0.09% | 19.50% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ZTO
ZTO Express
23.13
4.18
22.09%
CHRW
CH Robinson
144.67
25.47
21.37%
EXPD
Expeditors International
185.95
67.89
57.51%
FDX
FedEx
328.38
148.91
82.98%
JBHT
JB Hunt
274.19
132.82
93.95%
UPS
United Parcel
101.93
20.35
24.94%
ZTO Express Corporate Events
ZTO Express Cancels Repurchased ADS-Linked Shares, Trimming Class A Float
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, ZTO Express filed a Form 6-K in the U.S. and a Next Day Disclosure Return in Hong Kong, reporting changes to its issued share capital. The company cancelled 6,469,787 Class A ordinary shares underlying American depositary shares ...
ZTO Express Details Ongoing ADS Buybacks Through Early July 2026
Jul 13, 2026
ZTO Express has reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that its total issued share capital remained at 769,900,693 shares, comprising 563,800,693 Class A and 206,100,000 Class B ordinary shares, as of July 6, 2026. The company dis...
ZTO Express Details May–June 2026 ADS Buybacks in New SEC Filing
Jul 6, 2026
ZTO Express has filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for July 2026, providing a series of Hong Kong Next Day Disclosure Returns and a monthly return on movements in its equity securities. The filing, signed by chief fi...
ZTO Express Details Late-Spring ADS Buybacks in June 2026 Disclosure
Jun 29, 2026
ZTO Express reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in late June 2026 that it had filed multiple Next Day Disclosure Returns in Hong Kong covering changes related to its Class A ordinary shares. The filings, dated June 22 to June 2...
ZTO Express Shareholders Approve AGM Resolutions, Renew Auditor and Capital Mandates
Jun 16, 2026
On June 16, 2026, ZTO Express held its annual general meeting in Hong Kong, where shareholders approved the 2025 audited consolidated financial statements and received the directors’ and auditors’ reports. They also re-elected executiv...
ZTO Express Details Late-May to Early-June 2026 ADS Share Buybacks in Form 6-K Filing
Jun 15, 2026
ZTO Express disclosed a series of share repurchases in a Form 6-K filed on June 15, 2026, covering transactions from May 20 to June 5, 2026. During this period, the company bought back multiple tranches of American depositary shares, each represen...
ZTO Express Details Late-May and Early-June 2026 ADS Share Repurchases
Jun 8, 2026
ZTO Express filed a Form 6-K on June 8, 2026, detailing a series of share repurchases executed in late May and on June 1, 2026, via its American depositary shares on the New York Stock Exchange. The company reported that while its total issued Cla...
ZTO Express Reports May 2026 Share Capital and Buyback Status in Hong Kong Filing
Jun 2, 2026
ZTO Express reported its monthly Hong Kong stock exchange return for the month ended 31 May 2026, confirming that its authorised share capital remained at 1 billion U.S. dollars equivalent and that no new shares were issued or cancelled during the...
ZTO Express Details Late-May 2026 ADS Buybacks in Form 6-K Filing
Jun 1, 2026
On June 1, 2026, ZTO Express filed a Form 6-K for June 2026, primarily to furnish several Hong Kong “Next Day Disclosure Returns” detailing recent activity in its Class A ordinary shares. The filings show that between May 20 and May 22...
ZTO Express Repurchases ADS on NYSE Under Ongoing Share Buyback Mandate
May 26, 2026
On May 20, 2026, ZTO Express repurchased 131,796 American depositary shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share, on the New York Stock Exchange at prices between US$22.45 and US$23, for a total consideration of about US$3.0 million. The ...
ZTO Express Keeps Share Capital Steady, Adjusts Convertible Note Terms After Dividend
May 7, 2026
ZTO Express reported its monthly securities movements for the period ended April 30, 2026, confirming that its authorised share capital remained at 8 billion WVR Class A, 1 billion Class B and 1 billion undesignated shares, with total authorised c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.