ZTO Express (ZTO)
NYSE:ZTO
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ZTO Express
(NYSE:ZTO)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$29.00
â–²(15.54% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/23/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (profitability and low leverage) and a supportive earnings outlook with enhanced shareholder returns. Technicals add a positive backdrop with an established uptrend, while valuation remains reasonable. The main constraint is ongoing margin pressure and only moderate cash conversion.
Positive Factors
Sustained parcel volume growth and market share gains
Consistent double-digit volume growth and expanding share reflect durable demand from e-commerce and scale advantages across ZTO’s network. Higher throughput strengthens unit economics, supports hub utilization, and entrenches partner relationships that underpin revenue durability over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Gross profit and margin compression
Significant year‑over‑year margin erosion signals structural pricing and cost pressures. If higher incentives, lower ASP and rising KA costs persist, margins could remain depressed, limiting reinvestment capacity and the company’s ability to convert volume gains into proportionate profit expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained parcel volume growth and market share gains
Consistent double-digit volume growth and expanding share reflect durable demand from e-commerce and scale advantages across ZTO’s network. Higher throughput strengthens unit economics, supports hub utilization, and entrenches partner relationships that underpin revenue durability over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
ZTO Express (ZTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.75B
Dividend Yield2.98%
Average Volume (3M)1.62M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.2
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth11.11%
EPS Growth4.25%
CountryUS
Employees24,477
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.88
Shares Outstanding563,800,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,287,082
30 Day Avg. Volume1,616,817
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio14.44
Price to Book (P/B)1.75
Price to Sales (P/S)2.44
P/FCF Ratio19.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.72
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.25Price Target Upside8.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)13.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$55.36B
ZTO Express Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers delivery services for e-commerce and traditional merchants, and other express service users. As of D...
How the Company Makes Money
ZTO Express makes money primarily by charging for express delivery and related logistics services provided through its nationwide parcel network. Its core revenue stream is express delivery services: merchants, e-commerce platforms/sellers, and ot...
ZTO Express Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive operational and strategic picture: ZTO delivered above-industry parcel growth, strong revenue growth, robust operating cash flow, significant retail segment expansion, and measurable cost and productivity gains from automation and AI. Management also strengthened shareholder returns (dividend and $1.5B buyback) and provided upbeat 2026 guidance. However, the company faces margin pressure driven by higher total costs, rising KA unit costs and increased volume incentives, which led to declines in gross profit and operating profit for the year. On balance, the financial and strategic positives (volume outperformance, cash generation, technology-driven efficiency, and enhanced capital returns) outweigh the profitability headwinds, while management has explicit plans to address cost and network fairness issues.Positive Updates
Strong Volume Growth and Market Share Expansion
Q4 parcel volume reached 10.56 billion, up 9.2% year-over-year; full-year 2025 parcel volume was 38.5 billion, up 13.3% year-over-year. ZTO's market share expanded by 0.8 percentage points in Q4 while the industry reached a 200 billion parcel milestone with ~13.6% growth for the year.
Negative Updates
Gross Profit and Margin Compression
Gross profit declined 2.1% in Q4 to RMB 3.7 billion and declined 10.5% for the full year to RMB 12.3 billion. Gross profit margin fell 3.7 percentage points to 25.4% in Q4 and 6 percentage points to 25.0% for the year, reflecting margin pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Volume Growth and Market Share Expansion
Q4 parcel volume reached 10.56 billion, up 9.2% year-over-year; full-year 2025 parcel volume was 38.5 billion, up 13.3% year-over-year. ZTO's market share expanded by 0.8 percentage points in Q4 while the industry reached a 200 billion parcel milestone with ~13.6% growth for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 parcel‑volume growth of 10–13% YoY, implying annual parcel volume of 42.37–43.52 billion (vs. 38.5 billion in 2025) and an intent to outpace the Postal Bureau’s ~8% industry forecast; they emphasized quality and network stability while pursuing cost and last‑mile efficiency. On capital allocation, the Board approved a semi‑annual cash dividend of $0.39 per ADS (40% payout ratio), a new 24‑month $1.5 billion share buyback program through March 2028, and an enhanced policy to return no less than 50% of prior‑year adjusted net income (2025 adjusted net income: RMB 9.5 billion). They also issued $1.5 billion of 5‑year convertible bonds (net ~ $1.4 billion) to fund buybacks, reported having completed roughly $600 million of repurchases already and plan to repurchase the remaining ~ $800 million over the coming year.ZTO Express Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 46.32B | 47.76B | 44.28B | 38.42B | 35.38B | 30.41B |
| Gross Profit | 12.73B | 11.94B | 13.72B | 11.66B | 9.04B | 6.59B |
| EBITDA | 11.79B | 12.66B | 15.04B | 13.85B | 11.15B | 8.09B |
| Net Income | 8.71B | 8.83B | 8.82B | 8.75B | 6.81B | 4.75B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 94.62B | 91.08B | 92.34B | 88.47B | 78.52B | 62.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 26.52B | 25.68B | 22.31B | 19.79B | 17.45B | 12.72B |
| Total Debt | 18.87B | 11.48B | 17.35B | 15.44B | 13.12B | 4.44B |
| Total Liabilities | 29.76B | 23.90B | 29.67B | 28.18B | 24.05B | 13.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 64.20B | 66.43B | 62.06B | 59.80B | 54.03B | 48.64B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.32B | 5.89B | 5.53B | 6.69B | 4.07B | -2.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.45B | 11.97B | 11.43B | 13.36B | 11.48B | 7.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.26B | -4.83B | -5.98B | -12.25B | -16.04B | -8.76B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.40B | -10.57B | -5.00B | -769.84M | 7.06B | -2.90B |
ZTO Express Technical Analysis
Positive
25.10
Price Trends
24.12
Positive
22.61
Positive
20.62
Positive
Market Momentum
0.37
Negative
59.13
Neutral
81.59
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ZTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.54, above the 50-day MA of 24.12, and above the 200-day MA of 20.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.59 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ZTO.
ZTO Express Risk Analysis
ZTO Express disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ZTO Express reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We incur increased costs as a result of our listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Q4, 2023
2.
Provisions of our convertible senior notes could discourage an acquisition of us by a third-party. Q4, 2023
3.
Conversion of our convertible senior notes may dilute the ownership interest of the existing shareholders. Q4, 2023
ZTO Express Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $18.75B | 11.18 | 14.02% | 2.98% | 11.11% | 4.25% | |
76 Outperform | $20.49B | 20.83 | 36.71% | 1.02% | 1.13% | 2.62% | |
71 Outperform | $23.14B | 35.63 | 17.30% | 0.89% | 0.58% | 17.20% | |
67 Neutral | $90.33B | 22.26 | 15.76% | 1.94% | 4.69% | 17.55% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $20.20B | 33.78 | 33.32% | 1.51% | -6.68% | 18.19% | |
58 Neutral | $85.66B | 24.20 | 33.03% | 6.55% | -2.59% | -9.78% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ZTO
ZTO Express
25.05
6.62
35.91%
CHRW
CH Robinson
171.39
77.23
82.01%
EXPD
Expeditors International
156.69
42.01
36.63%
FDX
FedEx
378.58
150.70
66.13%
JBHT
JB Hunt
245.40
98.10
66.60%
UPS
United Parcel
100.78
6.05
6.38%
ZTO Express Corporate Events
ZTO Express Cancels 25.6 Million Class A Shares Following February Buybacks
Apr 8, 2026
ZTO Express reported to Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing that its total authorised share capital remained unchanged at US$1 million as of March 31, 2026, across its Class A, Class B and undesignated weighted voting rights ordinary shares. The comp...
ZTO Express Cuts Class A Share Count After Buyback-Linked Cancellation
Mar 16, 2026
ZTO Express disclosed that on March 16, 2026 it filed a Next Day Disclosure Return in Hong Kong, reporting changes in its issued share capital. The filing confirms the company remains in compliance with Hong Kong listing and regulatory requirement...
ZTO Express Cancels 7.37 Million Class A Shares After February Buybacks
Mar 11, 2026
On March 11, 2026, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. reported a change in its issued share capital via a regulatory filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, accompanied by a Next Day Disclosure Return in Hong Kong. The disclosure reflects th...
ZTO Express Details February Capital Structure, $1.5 Billion Convertible Notes and Ongoing Buybacks
Mar 4, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is a leading express delivery and logistics provider focused on China’s e‑commerce market, operating through a weighted voting rights structure and incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability. It...
ZTO Express Details February 2026 Share Buybacks Linked to Convertible Notes
Mar 2, 2026
ZTO Express reported through a March 2026 Form 6-K that it has been actively repurchasing its Class A ordinary shares, including American depositary shares, in February 2026 under Hong Kong disclosure rules. The filing also notes a concurrent shar...
ZTO Express Steps Up February Share Buybacks Around Convertible Notes Offering
Feb 23, 2026
ZTO Express disclosed in a February 23, 2026 filing that it has been actively repurchasing Class A ordinary shares and ADSs in February 2026, while its total issued share count remained at 589,428,169 Class A shares and 206,100,000 Class B shares ...
ZTO Express Executes HK$3.27 Billion Share Buyback Tied to Convertible Notes
Feb 9, 2026
On February 9, 2026, ZTO Express filed a Form 6-K in the U.S. reporting a Next Day Disclosure Return submitted to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 5, 2026, covering movements in its Hong Kong-listed Class A ordinary shares. The filing conf...
ZTO Express Reports No Share Capital Changes in January 2026 Hong Kong Monthly Return
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, ZTO Express filed its February Form 6-K and a monthly return with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange covering movements in its securities for the month ended January 31, 2026, confirming that there were no changes in its issued shar...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.