ZTO Express (ZTO)
NYSE:ZTO
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ZTO Express
(NYSE:ZTO)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$23.50
â–¼(-5.77% Downside)
Action:UpgradedDate:11/26/25
ZTO's overall score of 79 reflects strong financial performance with robust profitability and a stable balance sheet, though tempered by weak revenue growth and cash flow concerns. Bullish technical indicators and reasonable valuation further support the positive outlook, with financial performance being the most significant driver.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates ZTO's expanding market reach and ability to capture more business, supporting long-term sustainability.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Challenges
Declining free cash flow growth can strain financial flexibility, affecting the company's ability to invest in growth and manage debt.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates ZTO's expanding market reach and ability to capture more business, supporting long-term sustainability.
Read all positive factors
ZTO Express (ZTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.68B
Dividend Yield2.98%
Average Volume (3M)1.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.2
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth12.89%
EPS Growth3.12%
CountryUS
Employees24,477
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.49
Shares Outstanding563,800,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,101,335
30 Day Avg. Volume1,631,575
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio12.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.89
Price to Sales (P/S)2.66
P/FCF Ratio21.27
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.86
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.93Price Target Upside7.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)13.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$55.27B
ZTO Express Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers delivery services for e-commerce and traditional merchants, and other express service users. As of D...
How the Company Makes Money
ZTO Express generates revenue primarily through its express delivery services, which include domestic and international parcel delivery. The company operates on a fee-for-service model, charging customers based on the weight, size, and distance of...
ZTO Express Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive operational and strategic picture: ZTO delivered above-industry parcel growth, strong revenue growth, robust operating cash flow, significant retail segment expansion, and measurable cost and productivity gains from automation and AI. Management also strengthened shareholder returns (dividend and $1.5B buyback) and provided upbeat 2026 guidance. However, the company faces margin pressure driven by higher total costs, rising KA unit costs and increased volume incentives, which led to declines in gross profit and operating profit for the year. On balance, the financial and strategic positives (volume outperformance, cash generation, technology-driven efficiency, and enhanced capital returns) outweigh the profitability headwinds, while management has explicit plans to address cost and network fairness issues.Positive Updates
Strong Volume Growth and Market Share Expansion
Q4 parcel volume reached 10.56 billion, up 9.2% year-over-year; full-year 2025 parcel volume was 38.5 billion, up 13.3% year-over-year. ZTO's market share expanded by 0.8 percentage points in Q4 while the industry reached a 200 billion parcel milestone with ~13.6% growth for the year.
Negative Updates
Gross Profit and Margin Compression
Gross profit declined 2.1% in Q4 to RMB 3.7 billion and declined 10.5% for the full year to RMB 12.3 billion. Gross profit margin fell 3.7 percentage points to 25.4% in Q4 and 6 percentage points to 25.0% for the year, reflecting margin pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Volume Growth and Market Share Expansion
Q4 parcel volume reached 10.56 billion, up 9.2% year-over-year; full-year 2025 parcel volume was 38.5 billion, up 13.3% year-over-year. ZTO's market share expanded by 0.8 percentage points in Q4 while the industry reached a 200 billion parcel milestone with ~13.6% growth for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 parcel‑volume growth of 10–13% YoY, implying annual parcel volume of 42.37–43.52 billion (vs. 38.5 billion in 2025) and an intent to outpace the Postal Bureau’s ~8% industry forecast; they emphasized quality and network stability while pursuing cost and last‑mile efficiency. On capital allocation, the Board approved a semi‑annual cash dividend of $0.39 per ADS (40% payout ratio), a new 24‑month $1.5 billion share buyback program through March 2028, and an enhanced policy to return no less than 50% of prior‑year adjusted net income (2025 adjusted net income: RMB 9.5 billion). They also issued $1.5 billion of 5‑year convertible bonds (net ~ $1.4 billion) to fund buybacks, reported having completed roughly $600 million of repurchases already and plan to repurchase the remaining ~ $800 million over the coming year.ZTO Express Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 46.32B | 44.28B | 38.42B | 35.38B | 30.41B | 25.21B |
| Gross Profit | 12.73B | 13.72B | 11.66B | 9.04B | 6.59B | 5.84B |
| EBITDA | 11.79B | 15.04B | 13.85B | 11.15B | 8.09B | 6.91B |
| Net Income | 8.71B | 8.82B | 8.75B | 6.81B | 4.75B | 4.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 94.62B | 92.34B | 88.47B | 78.52B | 62.77B | 59.20B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 26.52B | 22.31B | 19.79B | 17.45B | 12.72B | 17.90B |
| Total Debt | 18.87B | 17.35B | 15.44B | 13.12B | 4.44B | 2.51B |
| Total Liabilities | 29.76B | 29.67B | 28.18B | 24.05B | 13.84B | 10.11B |
| Stockholders Equity | 64.20B | 62.06B | 59.80B | 54.03B | 48.64B | 48.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.32B | 5.53B | 6.69B | 4.07B | -2.11B | -4.26B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.45B | 11.43B | 13.36B | 11.48B | 7.22B | 4.95B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.26B | -5.98B | -12.25B | -16.04B | -8.76B | -3.55B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.40B | -5.00B | -769.84M | 7.06B | -2.90B | 8.34B |
ZTO Express Technical Analysis
Positive
24.94
Price Trends
23.94
Positive
22.42
Positive
20.50
Positive
Market Momentum
0.33
Negative
58.71
Neutral
86.65
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ZTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.44, above the 50-day MA of 23.94, and above the 200-day MA of 20.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.65 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ZTO.
ZTO Express Risk Analysis
ZTO Express disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ZTO Express reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ZTO Express Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $18.68B | 11.18 | 14.02% | 2.98% | 12.89% | 3.12% | |
70 Outperform | $21.53B | 31.73 | 16.33% | 0.89% | -1.60% | 4.87% | |
68 Neutral | $88.74B | 22.26 | 15.76% | 1.94% | 3.09% | 14.94% | |
66 Neutral | $19.13B | 24.87 | 35.57% | 1.02% | 12.54% | 19.59% | |
66 Neutral | $86.71B | 11.75 | 35.12% | 6.55% | -1.25% | -2.25% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $19.56B | 32.93 | 32.52% | 1.51% | -7.08% | 71.39% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ZTO
ZTO Express
24.94
6.74
37.05%
CHRW
CH Robinson
168.51
80.32
91.08%
EXPD
Expeditors International
144.91
40.70
39.06%
FDX
FedEx
370.14
171.01
85.87%
JBHT
JB Hunt
229.61
106.24
86.11%
UPS
United Parcel
103.22
15.05
17.07%
ZTO Express Corporate Events
ZTO Express Reports No Share Capital Changes in January 2026 Hong Kong Monthly Return
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, ZTO Express filed its February Form 6-K and a monthly return with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange covering movements in its securities for the month ended January 31, 2026, confirming that there were no changes in its issued shar...
ZTO Express Cancels NYSE-Repurchased ADS Shares in December 2025, Reducing Class A Float
Jan 5, 2026
In a regulatory filing dated January 5, 2026, ZTO Express reported its monthly return for the period ended December 31, 2025 to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, detailing no changes in its authorised share capital but a reduction in its issued Class ...
ZTO Express Reports Stable Share Capital Amid Ongoing Repurchases
Dec 4, 2025
On December 4, 2025, ZTO Express submitted a monthly return to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reporting no changes in its authorized or issued share capital for November 2025. The company maintained its share capital structure with 8 billion Class ...
ZTO Express Acquires Zhejiang Xinglian to Bolster Market Position
Dec 1, 2025
On November 28, 2025, ZTO Express announced a significant acquisition through its affiliated entity, ZTO Aviation, which agreed to purchase 100% equity interest in Zhejiang Xinglian from ZTO Yun Leng for RMB178,000,000. This acquisition, considere...
ZTO Express Announces Recent Share Repurchases
Nov 21, 2025
On November 21, 2025, ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases that took place between September and November 2025. The company repurchased a significant number of American depository shares, representing Class A ordinary shares, at var...
ZTO Express Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results with Increased Parcel Volume
Nov 20, 2025
ZTO Express reported its unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2025, showing a 9.8% increase in parcel volume to 9.6 billion and a 5.0% rise in adjusted net income to RMB2.5 billion. Despite a complex macro environment, the company ...
ZTO Express Announces Recent Share Repurchases
Nov 20, 2025
On November 20, 2025, ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases that took place from September to November 2025, involving American depository shares representing Class A ordinary shares. These repurchases, which were not yet canceled as...
ZTO Express Announces Strategic Share Repurchases in November 2025
Nov 19, 2025
On November 19, 2025, ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases, totaling significant amounts of American depository shares, between September and November 2025. These repurchases, which have not yet been canceled, reflect the company...
ZTO Express Announces Strategic Share Repurchase Program
Nov 18, 2025
On November 18, 2025, ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases that took place from September to November 2025. These transactions involved the repurchase of American depository shares, representing Class A ordinary shares, at various p...
ZTO Express Completes Strategic Share Repurchase Program
Nov 17, 2025
ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases of its American depository shares between September 24, 2025, and November 14, 2025, as part of its efforts to manage its capital structure. The repurchase program involved multiple transactions,...
ZTO Express Reports Recent Share Repurchase Activities
Nov 14, 2025
ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases between September 24 and November 13, 2025, involving American depository shares representing Class A ordinary shares. These repurchases, which were not yet canceled at the time of reporting, ref...
ZTO Express Announces Share Repurchase Program in November 2025
Nov 12, 2025
On November 12, 2025, ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases that took place between September 24 and November 10, 2025. These repurchases involved American depository shares representing Class A ordinary shares, with the company buyi...
ZTO Express Executes Strategic Share Repurchase Plan
Nov 10, 2025
ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases, involving American depository shares, between September 24 and November 7, 2025. This strategic move, involving the repurchase of millions of shares at various prices, is part of the companyR...
ZTO Express Announces Strategic Share Repurchase Program
Nov 7, 2025
On November 7, 2025, ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases that took place between September 24 and November 6, 2025. The company repurchased a total of several million American depository shares, representing Class A ordinary shares...
ZTO Express Reports Share Repurchase Activities as of November 2025
Nov 6, 2025
On November 6, 2025, ZTO Express announced changes in its issued shares, maintaining a total of 598,368,490 Class A ordinary shares as of November 5, 2025. The company has been actively repurchasing American depository shares since September 2025,...
ZTO Express Announces Recent Share Repurchases to Optimize Capital Structure
Nov 5, 2025
On November 5, 2025, ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases that took place between September 24 and November 4, 2025. These repurchases involved American depository shares, representing Class A ordinary shares, at various prices, wit...
ZTO Express Enhances Shareholder Value with Strategic Share Repurchases
Nov 4, 2025
On November 4, 2025, ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases, including the acquisition of 352,872 American depository shares on November 3, 2025. These repurchases, which began on September 24, 2025, are part of the company’s st...
ZTO Express Announces Share Repurchase Program to Boost Shareholder Value
Nov 3, 2025
On November 3, 2025, ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases that took place from September 24 to October 31, 2025. The company repurchased a significant number of American depository shares, representing Class A ordinary shares, with ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.