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ZTO Express (ZTO)
NYSE:ZTO
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ZTO Express
(NYSE:ZTO)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$21.00
â–²(11.70% Upside)
Positive Factors
Index Inclusion
The inclusion of ZTO H-share in the Hang Seng index could support the share price in the near term.
Investment in Technology
ZTO is on the front foot to invest in technology and autonomous vehicles given its healthy balance sheet.
Parcel Volume Growth
ZTO achieved 19% year-over-year growth in parcel volumes in the first four months of the year, indicating strong performance despite a recent slowdown.
Negative Factors
Earnings Miss
ZTO's 2Q25 adjusted net profit fell 28% year over year, missing estimates by 10%.
Market Share Loss
ZTO has been losing market share by 0.4-2ppt YoY due to aggressive competition from small peers.
Regulatory Challenges
Regulations are preventing market consolidation, leading to a reiterated neutral rating.
ZTO Express (ZTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.11B
Dividend Yield3.65%
Average Volume (3M)2.23M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.1
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth14.40%
EPS Growth2.41%
CountryUS
Employees24,477
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength76
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.33
Shares Outstanding598,368,470
10 Day Avg. Volume2,339,395
30 Day Avg. Volume2,231,432
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.03
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.10
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.86Price Target Upside21.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
ZTO Express Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionZTO Express (ZTO) is a leading logistics and express delivery company headquartered in Shanghai, China. Established in 2002, ZTO primarily operates in the express delivery sector, providing parcel delivery services, logistics solutions, and freight transportation. The company serves a wide range of customers, including e-commerce businesses, corporations, and individual consumers, leveraging its extensive network and advanced technology to ensure efficient and timely deliveries.
How the Company Makes MoneyZTO Express generates revenue primarily through its express delivery services, which include both domestic and international shipping solutions. The company charges customers based on the weight and size of the parcels, as well as the distance to be covered. In addition to standard delivery services, ZTO offers value-added services such as warehousing, order fulfillment, and last-mile delivery, which further contribute to its revenue streams. The company has established significant partnerships with major e-commerce platforms, including Alibaba and JD.com, enhancing its market presence and customer base. Furthermore, ZTO benefits from economies of scale as it expands its operations and improves its efficiency, which supports its profitability.
ZTO Express Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 20, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 25, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with significant growth in parcel volume and cost efficiency gains, but these were offset by intensified price competition, declining ASP, and gross profit challenges. Despite the competitive pressures, ZTO Express maintains a strategic focus on service quality and long-term growth.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Parcel Volume Growth
ZTO Express achieved a total parcel volume of 8.5 billion in Q1 2025, marking a 19.1% year-over-year increase.
Retail Parcel and Reverse Logistics Surge
Retail parcel volume increased 46% year-over-year, and reverse logistics volumes surged over 150% in the first quarter.
Cost Efficiency Gains
Unit transportation and sorting costs decreased by CNY 0.09 year-over-year, with line-haul transportation costs down 13.2% and sorting costs down 10.4%.
Adjusted Net Income Increase
Adjusted net income reached CNY 2.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 1.6%.
Negative Updates
Intensified Price Competition
ASP for core express delivery business decreased 7.8% due to intensified price competition and increased volume incentives.
Gross Profit Decline
Gross profit decreased 10.4% to CNY 2.7 billion, with the gross profit margin rate declining by 5.4 points to 24.7%.
Challenges in Achieving Industry Average Growth
The company's Q1 parcel volume growth was slightly slower than the industry average, despite strategic efforts to bridge the gap.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, ZTO Express reported a strong performance with a parcel volume of 8.5 billion, marking a 19.1% increase year-over-year, and an adjusted net income of CNY 2.3 billion, up 1.6% from the previous year. Despite the express delivery industry experiencing a 21.6% growth in parcel volume, ZTO remained focused on service quality and volume growth amid intensifying price competition and a rise in lower-value parcels. The company achieved a CNY 0.12 positive shift in ASP for core express services and a decrease of CNY 0.09 in unit transportation and sorting costs year-over-year. ZTO aims to maintain high-quality service, outpace industry volume growth, and achieve a reasonable profit level by enhancing network collaboration, strengthening last-mile capabilities, optimizing revenue mix, and leveraging digitization and data analytics. For the full year of 2025, ZTO reiterated its parcel volume guidance of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion, indicating a 20% to 24% increase year-over-year.ZTO Express Financial Statement Overview
Summary
ZTO Express demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth, healthy profit margins, and solid cash flow generation. The balance sheet shows low leverage and a strong equity ratio, though there is slight room for improvement in return on equity.Income Statement
ZTO Express demonstrates strong financial performance with a consistent upward trajectory in revenue, as seen in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data. The gross profit margin is robust, and net profit margin is healthy, reflecting efficient cost management. The company shows solid EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating strong operational performance.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is solid with a favorable debt-to-equity ratio, indicating low leverage, which minimizes financial risk. The equity ratio is strong, showing a high proportion of owned assets. However, the return on equity is slightly moderate, suggesting room for improvement in generating profits from shareholders' investments.78
Positive
Cash Flow
ZTO Express exhibits strong cash flow generation with positive free cash flow growth and a solid operating cash flow to net income ratio. The company effectively converts its earnings into cash, which supports its financial flexibility. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also healthy, indicating efficient cash utilization.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 45.21B | 44.28B | 38.42B | 35.38B | 30.41B | 25.21B |
| Gross Profit | 13.40B | 13.72B | 11.66B | 9.04B | 6.59B | 5.84B |
| EBITDA | 12.57B | 15.04B | 13.85B | 11.15B | 5.87B | 5.20B |
| Net Income | 9.38B | 8.82B | 8.75B | 6.81B | 4.75B | 4.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 93.15B | 92.34B | 88.47B | 78.52B | 62.77B | 59.20B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.02B | 22.31B | 19.89B | 17.45B | 12.57B | 17.90B |
| Total Debt | 17.08B | 17.35B | 15.44B | 13.12B | 4.44B | 2.51B |
| Total Liabilities | 30.28B | 29.67B | 28.18B | 24.05B | 13.84B | 10.11B |
| Stockholders Equity | 62.21B | 62.06B | 59.80B | 54.03B | 48.64B | 48.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.11B | 5.53B | 6.69B | 4.07B | -2.11B | -4.26B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.76B | 11.43B | 13.36B | 11.48B | 7.22B | 4.95B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.76B | -5.98B | -12.25B | -16.04B | -8.76B | -3.55B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.39B | -5.00B | -769.84M | 7.06B | -2.90B | 8.34B |
ZTO Express Technical Analysis
Negative
18.80
Price Trends
18.99
Negative
18.55
Positive
18.90
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Positive
41.58
Neutral
12.96
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ZTO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.80, below the 50-day MA of 18.99, and below the 200-day MA of 18.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ZTO.
ZTO Express Risk Analysis
ZTO Express disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ZTO Express reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ZTO Express Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $54.52B | 13.85 | 14.68% | 2.41% | 0.27% | -2.64% | |
75 Outperform | $15.11B | 13.06 | 13.98% | 3.65% | 14.40% | 2.41% | |
72 Outperform | $16.50B | 19.64 | 39.01% | 1.23% | 23.70% | 31.33% | |
69 Neutral | $74.13B | 13.04 | 34.96% | 7.46% | 0.94% | 9.62% | |
69 Neutral | $14.99B | 28.78 | 32.43% | 1.94% | -2.55% | 59.07% | |
65 Neutral | $13.97B | 25.94 | 14.33% | 1.21% | -2.24% | -5.43% | |
64 Neutral | $10.95B | 16.37 | 8.81% | 1.96% | 2.68% | -15.33% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ZTO
ZTO Express
18.80
-1.28
-6.37%
CHRW
CH Robinson
128.06
26.65
26.28%
EXPD
Expeditors International
122.33
1.30
1.07%
FDX
FedEx
232.21
-57.56
-19.86%
JBHT
JB Hunt
145.79
-26.43
-15.35%
UPS
United Parcel
87.86
-31.75
-26.54%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.