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ZTO Express (ZTO)
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ZTO Express (ZTO) AI Stock Analysis

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ZTO

ZTO Express

(NYSE:ZTO)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$21.00
▲(9.32% Upside)
ZTO Express's strong financial performance is the most significant factor, supported by a stable balance sheet and consistent revenue growth. The valuation is fair with an attractive dividend yield. Technical analysis indicates neutral momentum, balancing the overall score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates a strong market position and effective business model, supporting long-term expansion and profitability.
Cash Flow Generation
Strong cash flow generation enhances financial flexibility, allowing for strategic investments and debt reduction, supporting sustainable growth.
Debt Reduction
Reducing debt through strategic repurchases improves financial stability and lowers interest obligations, enhancing long-term financial health.
Negative Factors
Moderate Return on Equity
Moderate return on equity indicates potential inefficiencies in generating profits from shareholders' investments, which could impact long-term returns.
Share Capital Stability
While stability in share capital is positive, lack of share buybacks or issuance may limit strategic financial maneuvers to enhance shareholder value.
Technical Analysis Signals
Mixed technical signals may reflect market uncertainty, potentially affecting investor confidence and stock performance in the medium term.

ZTO Express (ZTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

ZTO Express Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionZTO Express (ZTO) is a leading logistics and express delivery company headquartered in Shanghai, China. Established in 2002, ZTO primarily operates in the express delivery sector, providing parcel delivery services, logistics solutions, and freight transportation. The company serves a wide range of customers, including e-commerce businesses, corporations, and individual consumers, leveraging its extensive network and advanced technology to ensure efficient and timely deliveries.
How the Company Makes MoneyZTO Express generates revenue primarily through its express delivery services, which include both domestic and international shipping solutions. The company charges customers based on the weight and size of the parcels, as well as the distance to be covered. In addition to standard delivery services, ZTO offers value-added services such as warehousing, order fulfillment, and last-mile delivery, which further contribute to its revenue streams. The company has established significant partnerships with major e-commerce platforms, including Alibaba and JD.com, enhancing its market presence and customer base. Furthermore, ZTO benefits from economies of scale as it expands its operations and improves its efficiency, which supports its profitability.

ZTO Express Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 20, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with significant growth in parcel volume and cost efficiency gains, but these were offset by intensified price competition, declining ASP, and gross profit challenges. Despite the competitive pressures, ZTO Express maintains a strategic focus on service quality and long-term growth.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Parcel Volume Growth
ZTO Express achieved a total parcel volume of 8.5 billion in Q1 2025, marking a 19.1% year-over-year increase.
Retail Parcel and Reverse Logistics Surge
Retail parcel volume increased 46% year-over-year, and reverse logistics volumes surged over 150% in the first quarter.
Cost Efficiency Gains
Unit transportation and sorting costs decreased by CNY 0.09 year-over-year, with line-haul transportation costs down 13.2% and sorting costs down 10.4%.
Adjusted Net Income Increase
Adjusted net income reached CNY 2.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 1.6%.
Negative Updates
Intensified Price Competition
ASP for core express delivery business decreased 7.8% due to intensified price competition and increased volume incentives.
Gross Profit Decline
Gross profit decreased 10.4% to CNY 2.7 billion, with the gross profit margin rate declining by 5.4 points to 24.7%.
Challenges in Achieving Industry Average Growth
The company's Q1 parcel volume growth was slightly slower than the industry average, despite strategic efforts to bridge the gap.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, ZTO Express reported a strong performance with a parcel volume of 8.5 billion, marking a 19.1% increase year-over-year, and an adjusted net income of CNY 2.3 billion, up 1.6% from the previous year. Despite the express delivery industry experiencing a 21.6% growth in parcel volume, ZTO remained focused on service quality and volume growth amid intensifying price competition and a rise in lower-value parcels. The company achieved a CNY 0.12 positive shift in ASP for core express services and a decrease of CNY 0.09 in unit transportation and sorting costs year-over-year. ZTO aims to maintain high-quality service, outpace industry volume growth, and achieve a reasonable profit level by enhancing network collaboration, strengthening last-mile capabilities, optimizing revenue mix, and leveraging digitization and data analytics. For the full year of 2025, ZTO reiterated its parcel volume guidance of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion, indicating a 20% to 24% increase year-over-year.

ZTO Express Financial Statement Overview

Summary
ZTO Express demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth, healthy profit margins, and solid cash flow generation. The balance sheet is low-risk with a favorable debt-to-equity ratio, though there is room for improvement in return on equity.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
ZTO Express demonstrates strong financial performance with a consistent upward trajectory in revenue, as seen in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data. The gross profit margin is robust, and net profit margin is healthy, reflecting efficient cost management. The company shows solid EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating strong operational performance.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet is solid with a favorable debt-to-equity ratio, indicating low leverage, which minimizes financial risk. The equity ratio is strong, showing a high proportion of owned assets. However, the return on equity is slightly moderate, suggesting room for improvement in generating profits from shareholders' investments.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
ZTO Express exhibits strong cash flow generation with positive free cash flow growth and a solid operating cash flow to net income ratio. The company effectively converts its earnings into cash, which supports its financial flexibility. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also healthy, indicating efficient cash utilization.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue46.32B44.28B38.42B35.38B30.41B25.21B
Gross Profit12.73B13.72B11.66B9.04B6.59B5.84B
EBITDA13.64B15.04B13.85B10.41B7.72B6.59B
Net Income8.71B8.82B8.75B6.81B4.75B4.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets94.62B92.34B88.47B78.52B62.77B59.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments26.52B22.31B19.89B17.58B12.72B17.90B
Total Debt18.87B17.35B15.44B13.12B4.44B2.51B
Total Liabilities29.76B29.67B28.18B24.05B13.84B10.11B
Stockholders Equity64.20B62.06B59.80B54.03B48.64B48.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.32B5.53B6.69B4.07B-2.11B-4.26B
Operating Cash Flow10.45B11.43B13.36B11.48B7.22B4.95B
Investing Cash Flow-3.26B-5.98B-12.25B-16.04B-8.76B-3.55B
Financing Cash Flow-4.40B-5.00B-769.84M7.06B-2.90B8.34B

ZTO Express Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price19.21
Price Trends
50DMA
18.81
Positive
100DMA
18.62
Positive
200DMA
18.56
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.09
Negative
RSI
59.65
Neutral
STOCH
88.61
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ZTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.01, above the 50-day MA of 18.81, and above the 200-day MA of 18.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.61 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ZTO.

ZTO Express Risk Analysis

ZTO Express disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ZTO Express reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

ZTO Express Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$15.09B13.1413.98%3.33%14.40%2.41%
$56.90B14.0914.98%2.29%1.14%4.99%
$73.93B12.9734.96%7.34%0.94%9.62%
$15.99B19.2239.01%1.25%23.70%31.33%
$15.98B28.5815.13%1.05%-1.60%4.87%
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
$14.89B28.7032.43%1.92%-2.55%59.07%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ZTO
ZTO Express
19.36
-3.60
-15.68%
CHRW
CH Robinson
129.06
23.58
22.35%
EXPD
Expeditors International
119.65
1.56
1.32%
FDX
FedEx
247.34
-21.39
-7.96%
JBHT
JB Hunt
167.77
-9.65
-5.44%
UPS
United Parcel
89.22
-37.08
-29.36%

ZTO Express Corporate Events

ZTO Express Announces Share Repurchase Activities in October 2025
Oct 20, 2025

On October 20, 2025, ZTO Express announced changes in its issued shares, specifically highlighting the repurchase of American depository shares throughout September and October 2025. These repurchases, which include several transactions at varying prices, reflect the company’s strategic financial management and may impact its market positioning by potentially increasing shareholder value.

ZTO Express Announces Recent Share Repurchases
Oct 17, 2025

On October 17, 2025, ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases that occurred between September 24 and October 16, 2025. These repurchases involved American depository shares representing Class A ordinary shares, with transactions executed at varying prices. The repurchase activity reflects the company’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its share value and signaling confidence in its market position. The company’s actions are in compliance with the listing rules of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

ZTO Express Reports Share Repurchase Activity in October 2025
Oct 16, 2025

ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases involving American depository shares representing Class A ordinary shares. These repurchases occurred between September 24 and October 15, 2025, with the shares not yet cancelled. This move is part of the company’s strategy to manage its share capital and potentially enhance shareholder value.

ZTO Express Completes Series of Share Repurchases by October 14, 2025
Oct 15, 2025

ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases involving American depository shares representing Class A ordinary shares. These repurchases occurred between September 24 and October 14, 2025, with the most recent repurchase on October 14, 2025, involving 450,069 shares at a price of USD 18.56 per share. The repurchases are part of the company’s strategy to manage its share capital and potentially enhance shareholder value. The announcement indicates compliance with all applicable listing rules and regulatory requirements, reflecting ZTO Express’s commitment to maintaining transparency and adherence to market regulations.

ZTO Express Announces Recent Share Repurchases
Oct 14, 2025

On October 14, 2025, ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases that took place between September 24 and October 10, 2025. The company repurchased a total of 3,128,678 American depository shares, representing the same number of Class A ordinary shares, at varying prices. These repurchases reflect ZTO Express’s strategic financial management and may impact its share value and investor confidence, as they indicate a potential undervaluation of the company’s stock.

ZTO Express Announces Significant Share Repurchase Program
Oct 9, 2025

On October 9, 2025, ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases that took place from September 24 to October 8, 2025. These repurchases involved American Depository Shares representing Class A ordinary shares, with the company buying back a total of 2,610,550 shares at varying prices. The repurchase program reflects ZTO Express’s strategic initiative to optimize its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, indicating a positive outlook on its financial health and confidence in its market positioning.

ZTO Express Announces Share Repurchase Activities in October 2025
Oct 8, 2025

On October 8, 2025, ZTO Express announced changes in its issued shares, including multiple repurchases of American depository shares in late September and early October 2025. These repurchases, which occurred on the New York Stock Exchange, involved significant transactions, with the most recent repurchase on October 7, 2025, involving 189,423 shares at prices between USD 18.96 and USD 18.99. The repurchase activities are part of ZTO Express’s strategy to manage its share capital and potentially enhance shareholder value.

ZTO Express Announces Strategic Share Repurchase Program
Oct 6, 2025

On October 6, 2025, ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases conducted from September 24 to October 3, 2025, involving American depository shares representing Class A ordinary shares. These repurchases were executed at various prices, with the most recent being on October 3, 2025, where 103,938 shares were repurchased on the New York Stock Exchange. This strategic move underscores ZTO Express’s commitment to enhancing shareholder value and optimizing its capital structure, which could positively impact its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

ZTO Express Completes Significant Share Repurchase Program in Late September 2025
Oct 3, 2025

On October 3, 2025, ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases conducted in late September and early October 2025. The company repurchased a total of 2,023,815 American depository shares, with transactions occurring on various dates, including September 24, 25, 26, 29, 30, and October 2, 2025. These repurchases reflect ZTO Express’s strategic financial management and commitment to enhancing shareholder value. The transactions were executed at prices ranging from USD 18.98 to USD 19.60 per share, demonstrating the company’s active engagement in managing its equity structure.

ZTO Express Executes Strategic Share Repurchase in Late September 2025
Oct 2, 2025

On September 24-30, 2025, ZTO Express repurchased a total of 2,020,008 American depository shares, representing Class A ordinary shares, at prices ranging from USD 18.76 to USD 19.60 per share. These repurchases, authorized by a resolution on June 17, 2025, reflect ZTO’s strategic financial management and commitment to enhancing shareholder value. The transactions were conducted on the New York Stock Exchange, and the repurchased shares are intended for cancellation, indicating a focus on optimizing the company’s capital structure.

ZTO Express Executes Significant Share Repurchase in September 2025
Sep 30, 2025

ZTO Express announced a series of share repurchases in late September 2025, buying back a total of 1,602,894 American depository shares. This move is part of a repurchase mandate authorized on June 17, 2025, allowing the company to repurchase up to 80,446,849 shares. The repurchase activity, which included transactions on the New York Stock Exchange, reflects the company’s strategic efforts to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value. The repurchased shares have not yet been canceled, and the company has a moratorium period for issuing new shares or transferring treasury shares until October 29, 2025.

ZTO Express Announces Significant Share Repurchase in Late September 2025
Sep 29, 2025

On September 29, 2025, ZTO Express announced changes in its issued shares, specifically highlighting the repurchase of American depository shares on September 24, 25, and 26, 2025. The repurchase involved a total of 1,185,780 shares, reflecting a strategic move to manage its share capital and potentially enhance shareholder value. This action underscores ZTO Express’s commitment to optimizing its capital structure and maintaining compliance with regulatory requirements, which may positively impact its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

ZTO Express Executes Significant Share Repurchase in September 2025
Sep 26, 2025

On September 24 and 25, 2025, ZTO Express repurchased a total of 791,301 American depository shares, representing Class A ordinary shares, on the New York Stock Exchange. The repurchase was part of a mandate authorized on June 17, 2025, allowing the company to repurchase up to 80,446,849 shares. This strategic move is likely aimed at consolidating the company’s share value and optimizing its capital structure, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder value.

ZTO Express Executes Share Repurchase on NYSE
Sep 25, 2025

On September 24, 2025, ZTO Express repurchased 395,651 American depository shares, representing Class A ordinary shares, on the New York Stock Exchange at a price range of USD 18.76 to USD 19.29 per share. This repurchase, amounting to USD 7,515,430.31, was conducted under the company’s repurchase mandate, reflecting a strategic move to manage its share capital and potentially enhance shareholder value.

ZTO Express Releases 2025 Interim Report
Sep 9, 2025

On September 9, 2025, ZTO Express released its 2025 Interim Report, highlighting its financial performance and operational updates. The report is crucial for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s current market position and future strategies, impacting its operations and industry standing.

ZTO Express Completes Major Repurchase of Convertible Notes
Sep 3, 2025

On September 2, 2025, ZTO Express completed a significant financial maneuver by repurchasing US$982,252,000 worth of its 1.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027. This repurchase, which involved 33,630,148 American depositary shares, reflects the company’s strategic financial management and impacts its capital structure by reducing outstanding debt. The move leaves US$17,748,000 of the 2027 Notes still outstanding, positioning the company for potentially enhanced financial stability and flexibility.

ZTO Express Reports August 2025 Share Capital Movements and Completes 2027 Notes Repurchase
Sep 2, 2025

On September 2, 2025, ZTO Express submitted a monthly return form to The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, detailing movements in its authorized share capital and issued shares for August 2025. The report highlighted that there were no changes in the number of authorized and issued shares during the month. Additionally, ZTO Express announced the completion of a Repurchase Right offer for its 2027 Notes, with $982.25 million in principal amount surrendered, reflecting the company’s ongoing financial management strategies.

ZTO Express Reports Stable Share Capital for July 2025
Aug 5, 2025

On August 5, 2025, ZTO Express submitted a monthly return form to The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, detailing the movements in its authorized share capital and issued shares for July 2025. The report indicated no changes in the number of authorized or issued shares, maintaining stability in its share capital structure. This submission aligns with regulatory requirements and reflects the company’s compliance with listing rules, ensuring transparency for stakeholders.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 16, 2025