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United Fire Group
(NASDAQ:UFCS)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$59.00
▲(14.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
UFCS scores well on improving financial performance (profitability and cash generation strengthened, modest leverage) and a favorable valuation (low P/E plus dividend). Technicals support the view with price above key moving averages and positive MACD. The earnings call adds optimism from record metrics and expense/ROE objectives, partially offset by competitive pricing and the company’s history of earnings/cash-flow volatility.
Positive Factors
Profitability Recovery
A sustained return to multi-year profitability and rising revenue indicates the company has reestablished underwriting discipline and margin expansion. Strong net income and recurring premium growth enhance capital retention, support dividends and strategic investments, and reduce insolvency risk across cycles.
Negative Factors
Underwriting Volatility
Historic swings in underwriting results and cash flow show the business is exposed to cyclical claims, reserving variability and catastrophe risk. That variability can erode capital in weak years, force conservative underwriting or limit capital returns, and raises execution risk for stable long-term ROE.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability Recovery
A sustained return to multi-year profitability and rising revenue indicates the company has reestablished underwriting discipline and margin expansion. Strong net income and recurring premium growth enhance capital retention, support dividends and strategic investments, and reduce insolvency risk across cycles.
Read all positive factors
United Fire Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Written Premium by Segment
New and renewed premium written in each segment after reinsurance, reflecting sales momentum, customer retention, and market expansion; rising net written premium points to growing production, while declines can indicate pricing pressure or lost business.
New and renewed premium written in each segment after reinsurance, reflecting sales momentum, customer retention, and market expansion; rising net written premium points to growing production, while declines can indicate pricing pressure or lost business.
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The Fly
The FlyUnited Fire Group (UFCS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.32B
Dividend Yield1.4%
Average Volume (3M)167.36K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.1
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth10.58%
EPS Growth96.22%
CountryUS
Employees846
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.07
Shares Outstanding25,656,166
10 Day Avg. Volume177,499
30 Day Avg. Volume167,356
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)1.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.69
P/FCF Ratio3.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$57.00Price Target Upside11.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)4.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.43B
United Fire Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS) operates throughout the United States, specializing in property and casualty insurance solutions for both personal and commercial clients. The company's diverse portfolio includes...
How the Company Makes Money
UFG makes money primarily through (1) underwriting income and (2) investment income. Underwriting income is generated by collecting insurance premiums and managing the total cost of claims and operating expenses; when earned premiums exceed incurr...
United Fire Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple record and industry-leading metrics—record net income, record net written premium, a best-in-15-years combined ratio for the quarter, and a strong increase in investment income—driven by disciplined underwriting, portfolio actions and improved investment yields. Management acknowledged competitive pressure on pricing (average renewal rate +2.9%), softness in property and some specialty lines, a modest increase in the expense ratio due to a one-time lease buyout, and unrealized investment mark-to-market impacts, but positioned these as manageable given conservative reserves, diversified distribution, and clear expense-reduction and capital priorities. Overall, positive operational and financial momentum outweighed the described headwinds.Positive Updates
Best Underwriting and Combined Ratio in 15+ Years
Company reported its best second-quarter combined ratio in more than 15 years; underlying loss ratio was 57.2% (slight improvement YoY and consistent with Q1). Second-quarter catastrophe loss ratio was 2.7%, 2.8 points below prior year; excluding favorable prior-period development, current accident-year catastrophe would be ~6%. Half-year catastrophe result was 3.2% and is trending toward the full-year estimate of 5%.
Negative Updates
Persistent Competitive Pressure on Pricing
Average renewal rate change was a modest 2.9%, reflecting a persistently competitive marketplace. Property rates remained under pressure and general liability saw modest rate pressure. Auto rate achievement moderated versus prior quarters, which could constrain margin expansion.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Best Underwriting and Combined Ratio in 15+ Years
Company reported its best second-quarter combined ratio in more than 15 years; underlying loss ratio was 57.2% (slight improvement YoY and consistent with Q1). Second-quarter catastrophe loss ratio was 2.7%, 2.8 points below prior year; excluding favorable prior-period development, current accident-year catastrophe would be ~6%. Half-year catastrophe result was 3.2% and is trending toward the full-year estimate of 5%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to expense‑ratio improvement of roughly 0.5–1.0 percentage point per year (Q2 expense ratio 35.4%, ~0.5 pt above prior run rate from a one‑time lease buyout), a full‑year catastrophe estimate of 5% (H1 catastrophe 3.2%; Q2 2.7%, or ~6% on current accident year excluding prior‑period benefit), and continued disciplined capital management (quarterly dividend $0.20/share; 2.0M shares authorized for repurchase as a third priority behind capital for growth and the dividend). They reiterated a long‑term ROE target of ~15% (YTD 6‑month ROE 13.2%) and expect to sustain profitable growth via premium growth (Q2 net written premium +9%; alternative distribution +13%), stable underwriting (Q2 underlying loss ratio 57.2%; average renewal rate change 2.9%), and higher investment income (Q2 net investment income +33% to $29M; fixed‑maturity income $26.3M, fixed‑maturity portfolio +16% YoY; new‑money yields ~5.1%, ~50 bps above portfolio).United Fire Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.43B | 1.39B | 1.25B | 1.10B | 988.22M | 1.06B |
| Gross Profit | 487.09M | 622.01M | 225.92M | 83.93M | 137.84M | 200.91M |
| EBITDA | 187.26M | 169.97M | 95.22M | -25.95M | 22.93M | 106.60M |
| Net Income | 130.54M | 118.19M | 61.96M | -29.70M | 15.03M | 80.59M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.91B | 3.84B | 3.49B | 3.14B | 2.88B | 3.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.34B | 1.27B | 1.13B | 102.15M | 96.92M | 132.38M |
| Total Debt | 146.27M | 146.20M | 117.06M | 50.00M | 50.00M | 50.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.96B | 2.90B | 2.71B | 2.41B | 2.14B | 2.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 950.61M | 941.17M | 781.53M | 733.75M | 740.11M | 879.12M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 286.36M | 263.30M | 328.43M | 160.85M | -3.39M | 15.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 290.70M | 269.74M | 340.30M | 171.74M | -1.25M | 29.92M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -321.19M | -325.96M | -292.49M | -149.89M | -19.17M | 31.73M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 8.85M | 11.60M | 51.09M | -16.45M | -15.03M | -17.49M |
United Fire Group Technical Analysis
Positive
51.33
Price Trends
49.35
Positive
44.85
Positive
40.12
Positive
Market Momentum
0.59
Positive
55.84
Neutral
73.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UFCS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.39, above the 50-day MA of 49.35, and above the 200-day MA of 40.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UFCS.
United Fire Group Risk Analysis
United Fire Group disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. United Fire Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
United Fire Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $1.22B | 5.53 | 38.78% | 1.85% | 3.96% | 234.26% | |
80 Outperform | $891.38M | 4.50 | 43.68% | ― | 1.25% | 157.31% | |
79 Outperform | $1.52B | 24.33 | 7.16% | 3.57% | 10.67% | -13.23% | |
77 Outperform | $1.32B | 10.13 | 14.36% | 1.40% | 10.58% | 96.22% | |
77 Outperform | $746.20M | 10.02 | 10.41% | 3.94% | -3.10% | -18.46% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $514.69M | 4.89 | 33.02% | ― | 10.65% | 39.18% |
* Financial Sector Average
UFCS
United Fire Group
52.09
25.81
98.20%
DGICA
Donegal Group
19.76
3.44
21.08%
SAFT
Safety Insurance Group
103.19
36.37
54.44%
UVE
Universal Insurance Holdings
44.23
21.21
92.17%
ACIC
American Coastal Insurance
10.93
1.28
13.21%
HRTG
Heritage Insurance Holdings
30.22
8.56
39.52%
United Fire Group Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
United Fire Group Schedules Q2 2026 Earnings Release
Neutral
Jul 17, 2026
United Fire Group, Inc. announced on July 17, 2026 that it will release its second quarter 2026 earnings after the market close on Monday, August 3, 2026. Management will host an earnings conference call on Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 9 a.m. CT, of...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
United Fire Group Boosts Dividend and Share Repurchases
Positive
May 20, 2026
United Fire Group’s board, meeting in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on May 20, 2026, declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share, payable June 19 to shareholders of record on June 5, and doubled its share repurchase authorization to 2 millio...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.