United Fire Group (UFCS)
NASDAQ:UFCS
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United Fire Group
(NASDAQ:UFCS)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$55.00
▲(36.21% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/21/26
UFCS scores well primarily on improving financial performance (strong profitability and cash generation with modest leverage) and supportive technicals (uptrend across key moving averages with positive momentum). The score is further helped by a low valuation multiple, while competitive underwriting pressures and investment mark-to-market headwinds highlighted on the earnings call temper the upside.
Positive Factors
Underwriting growth - record net written premium
Sustained top-line expansion (record NWP, +12% Q1 2026) builds durable insurance float and scale. Growing premium base supports long-run underwriting leverage, spreads fixed admin costs over more policies, and increases investable assets that can generate recurring investment income.
Negative Factors
Earnings and underwriting volatility (2023 loss)
Historic swings to a material 2023 loss show underlying volatility in underwriting outcomes and margins. Such volatility can deplete capital in adverse years, force rate or reserve adjustments, and makes multi-quarter earnings and cash generation less predictable for stakeholders.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Underwriting growth - record net written premium
Sustained top-line expansion (record NWP, +12% Q1 2026) builds durable insurance float and scale. Growing premium base supports long-run underwriting leverage, spreads fixed admin costs over more policies, and increases investable assets that can generate recurring investment income.
Read all positive factors
United Fire Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Written Premium by Segment
New and renewed premium written in each segment after reinsurance, reflecting sales momentum, customer retention, and market expansion; rising net written premium points to growing production, while declines can indicate pricing pressure or lost business.
New and renewed premium written in each segment after reinsurance, reflecting sales momentum, customer retention, and market expansion; rising net written premium points to growing production, while declines can indicate pricing pressure or lost business.
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The Fly
The FlyUnited Fire Group (UFCS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.23B
Dividend Yield1.73%
Average Volume (3M)121.80K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.9
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth10.58%
EPS Growth96.22%
CountryUS
Employees877
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.07
Shares Outstanding25,656,166
10 Day Avg. Volume154,930
30 Day Avg. Volume121,795
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)1.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.69
P/FCF Ratio3.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.48
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$57.00Price Target Upside41.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)4.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.41B
United Fire Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
United Fire Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance for individuals and businesses in the United States. The company offers commercial and personal lines of property and casualty insurance; and commerc...
How the Company Makes Money
UFCS primarily makes money through (1) underwriting income and (2) investment income generated from investing insurance float. Underwriting income is earned when the premiums collected on insurance policies exceed the company’s total costs to serv...
United Fire Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong operational and financial momentum: record net written premium, improved combined and expense ratios, double-digit investment income growth, expanding alternative distribution, and solid earnings and ROE. Headwinds include intensifying competition (notably in E&S), some pressure in assumed reinsurance, moderated returns from limited partnerships, and increased unrealized investment losses due to higher interest rates. Overall, positive execution and growth prospects outweigh the manageable market and investment headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Net Written Premium and Strong Top-Line Growth
Net written premium increased 12% in Q1 2026 (9% excluding certain ceded premium transactions), delivering record net written premium and disciplined growth across the portfolio.
Negative Updates
Intensifying Competition in E&S Market
Specialty E&S experienced increased competition: double-digit rate increases from a year ago have decelerated to mid-single-digit increases as capacity has returned and new entrants enter the market.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net Written Premium and Strong Top-Line Growth
Net written premium increased 12% in Q1 2026 (9% excluding certain ceded premium transactions), delivering record net written premium and disciplined growth across the portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated confidence in disciplined, profitable growth while providing a few explicit numerical guideposts: they expect a continued, gradual reduction in the expense ratio—about 60–70 basis points year‑over‑year assuming ~10% growth—driven by scale and completed policy admin costs; fixed‑income opportunities should sustain net investment income growth as new‑money yields remain near 5% (first‑quarter NII +15% to $27.0M; fixed‑maturity income $24.9M; fixed‑maturity portfolio up nearly $300M over four quarters; limited partnerships ~$100M generated $1.3M); and underwriting momentum should continue (record net written premium, NWP +12% overall and +9% excluding certain ceded transactions; core commercial NWP +11%; new business +14%; renewal rate achieved +4.3%; alternative distribution NWP +13% and $20M of additional Lloyd’s stamp capacity added). Financial and capital metrics cited in support of the guidance included an underlying loss ratio of 57%, Q1 catastrophe loss ratio 3.7% (‑1.3 pts YoY), expense ratio 34.9% (‑3 pts YoY), Q1 EPS $1.15 GAAP / $1.16 adjusted, book value $37.06 (adjusted $38.61), unrealized losses increasing from $34M to $53M (‑$0.57/share), a $0.20/share Q1 dividend, and return on equity near 13%.United Fire Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.43B | 1.39B | 1.25B | 1.10B | 988.22M | 1.06B |
| Gross Profit | 487.09M | 622.01M | 225.92M | 83.93M | 137.84M | 200.91M |
| EBITDA | 184.30M | 159.20M | 95.22M | -25.95M | 22.93M | 106.60M |
| Net Income | 130.54M | 118.19M | 61.96M | -29.70M | 15.03M | 80.59M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.65B | 3.84B | 3.49B | 3.14B | 2.88B | 3.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 162.03M | 1.27B | 1.13B | 102.15M | 96.92M | 132.38M |
| Total Debt | 146.27M | 146.20M | 117.06M | 50.00M | 50.00M | 50.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.70B | 2.90B | 2.71B | 2.41B | 2.14B | 2.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 950.61M | 941.17M | 781.53M | 733.75M | 740.11M | 879.12M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 286.36M | 263.30M | 328.43M | 160.85M | -3.39M | 15.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 290.70M | 269.74M | 340.30M | 171.74M | -1.25M | 29.92M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -321.19M | -325.96M | -292.49M | -149.89M | -19.17M | 31.73M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 8.85M | 11.60M | 51.09M | -16.45M | -15.03M | -17.49M |
United Fire Group Technical Analysis
Positive
40.38
Price Trends
40.96
Positive
38.84
Positive
35.71
Positive
Market Momentum
2.31
Positive
62.42
Neutral
25.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UFCS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.14, below the 50-day MA of 40.96, and above the 200-day MA of 35.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UFCS.
United Fire Group Risk Analysis
United Fire Group disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. United Fire Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
United Fire Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $1.11B | 4.38 | 37.50% | 2.18% | 3.57% | 198.87% | |
78 Outperform | $1.23B | 7.88 | 14.36% | 1.73% | 10.58% | 96.22% | |
74 Outperform | $711.71M | 5.52 | 43.68% | ― | 1.25% | 157.31% | |
71 Outperform | $658.35M | 13.60 | 10.41% | 3.51% | -2.46% | -11.49% | |
68 Neutral | $1.08B | -18.38 | 7.16% | 4.59% | 10.67% | -13.23% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $525.83M | 7.09 | 33.02% | ― | 10.65% | 39.18% |
* Financial Sector Average
UFCS
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UVE
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ACIC
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HRTG
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United Fire Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
United Fire Group Boosts Dividend and Share Repurchases
Positive
May 20, 2026
United Fire Group’s board, meeting in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on May 20, 2026, declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share, payable June 19 to shareholders of record on June 5, and doubled its share repurchase authorization to 2 millio...
Financial Disclosures
United Fire Group Schedules First-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release
Neutral
Apr 21, 2026
United Fire Group, Inc. announced on April 21, 2026, that it will release its first quarter 2026 earnings results after the market closes on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Management will discuss these results during an earnings conference call and webcast...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.