United Fire Group (UFCS)
NASDAQ:UFCS
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United Fire Group
(NASDAQ:UFCS)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$45.00
▲(14.97% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
UFCS scores well primarily on improving financial performance (strong 2025 profitability/ROE and a very strong balance sheet) and an upbeat earnings call with clear underwriting progress and shareholder-return actions. Valuation is also favorable given the low P/E and dividend. Technicals support the outlook with a steady uptrend, while the main offset remains historical earnings/cash-flow volatility and pricing/claims-related pressures discussed on the call.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
A zero reported debt balance and rising equity provide durable financial flexibility for underwriting cycles, reinsurance purchasing, and capital returns. Strong capital cushions support reserve adequacy and allow the company to sustain payouts and opportunistic investments through 2–6 month horizons.
Negative Factors
Historical Earnings & Cash-Flow Volatility
Prior multi-year swings in profitability and cash flow—including a 2023 loss and uneven free cash flow—indicate earnings are cycle-sensitive. This structural volatility can constrain capital generation, force reserve or reinsurance adjustments, and limit predictability of dividends and buybacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
A zero reported debt balance and rising equity provide durable financial flexibility for underwriting cycles, reinsurance purchasing, and capital returns. Strong capital cushions support reserve adequacy and allow the company to sustain payouts and opportunistic investments through 2–6 month horizons.
Read all positive factors
United Fire Group (UFCS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.01B
Dividend Yield1.73%
Average Volume (3M)101.47K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.1
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth12.22%
EPS Growth120.73%
CountryUS
Employees877
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.50
Shares Outstanding25,522,050
10 Day Avg. Volume83,761
30 Day Avg. Volume101,465
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)1.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.69
P/FCF Ratio3.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.00Price Target Upside4.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)3.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.42B
United Fire Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
United Fire Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance for individuals and businesses in the United States. The company offers commercial and personal lines of property and casualty insurance; and commerc...
How the Company Makes Money
United Fire Group generates revenue primarily through the underwriting of insurance premiums. The company collects premiums from policyholders in exchange for providing insurance coverage. This revenue is supplemented by investment income derived ...
United Fire Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Written Premium by Segment
New and renewed premium written in each segment after reinsurance, reflecting sales momentum, customer retention, and market expansion; rising net written premium points to growing production, while declines can indicate pricing pressure or lost business.
New and renewed premium written in each segment after reinsurance, reflecting sales momentum, customer retention, and market expansion; rising net written premium points to growing production, while declines can indicate pricing pressure or lost business.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUnited Fire Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a strong, positive trajectory: sizable improvements in underwriting profit, ROE, book value, net written premium growth, and investment income alongside record new business production and successful reinsurance renewals. Management emphasized conservative reserving and disciplined underwriting while investing in technology to drive future efficiency. Notable challenges include moderated property pricing, pressure in the umbrella/other liability line, and some reinsurance rate compression. Overall, the positive financial improvements and clear capital returns (dividend increase) meaningfully outweigh the operational and market headwinds discussed.Positive Updates
Record Growth in Net Written Premium
Full-year net written premium grew 9% year-over-year to more than $1.3 billion. Net written premium increased from $984 million in 2022 to $1.3 billion in 2025, reflecting an 11% compounded annual growth rate (2022–2025).
Negative Updates
Moderating Pricing and Competitive Pressure in Property
Rate increases moderated to 4.8% for the quarter with more competitive behavior in the property segment. Management noted a more competitive environment that could temper rate momentum and requires disciplined underwriting to sustain margins.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Growth in Net Written Premium
Full-year net written premium grew 9% year-over-year to more than $1.3 billion. Net written premium increased from $984 million in 2022 to $1.3 billion in 2025, reflecting an 11% compounded annual growth rate (2022–2025).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that United Fire Group enters 2026 well‑positioned with a modeled annual expected catastrophe loss ratio below 5% and a near‑term expense‑ratio run rate of roughly 35% (with a gradual decline of ~0.5 points/year assuming ~10% premium growth); they highlighted 2025 context including net written premium up 9% to >$1.3B, record new business of $247M, underwriting profit of $67M (vs. $9M in 2024), a combined ratio of 94.8%, underlying loss ratios of 55.4% (Q4) / 56.3% (FY), Q4 catastrophe 1.2% (FY 3.2%), net investment income up ~20% (fixed‑income income +17%) with new purchase yields ≈5% and a ~10% larger fixed‑maturity portfolio in Q4, $100M of limited partnerships returning $2.4M in the quarter (~10% annualized), operating EPS shown at $4.00 (from $1.09), book value per share $36.88 (from $29.36, >25% growth), ROE 13.7%, Q4 EPS $1.45 (adjusted $1.50), a 25% dividend increase to $0.20/share, a 1.0M‑share buyback authorization, and disciplined reinsurance/treaty positioning (including ~10% exposure‑adjusted rate decreases on core multi‑line and surety treaties with modestly higher retention) as they pursue continued profitable growth toward mid‑teens returns.United Fire Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.39B | 1.25B | 1.10B | 988.22M | 1.06B |
| Gross Profit | 622.01M | 225.92M | 83.93M | 137.84M | 200.91M |
| EBITDA | 159.20M | 95.22M | -25.95M | 22.93M | 106.60M |
| Net Income | 118.19M | 61.96M | -29.70M | 15.03M | 80.59M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.84B | 3.49B | 3.14B | 2.88B | 3.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 156.33M | 1.13B | 102.15M | 96.92M | 132.38M |
| Total Debt | 166.97M | 117.06M | 50.00M | 50.00M | 50.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.90B | 2.71B | 2.41B | 2.14B | 2.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 941.17M | 781.53M | 733.75M | 740.11M | 879.12M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 263.30M | 328.43M | 160.85M | -3.39M | 15.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 269.74M | 340.30M | 171.74M | -1.25M | 29.92M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -325.96M | -292.49M | -149.89M | -19.17M | 31.73M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 11.60M | 51.09M | -16.45M | -15.03M | -17.49M |
United Fire Group Technical Analysis
Positive
39.14
Price Trends
37.55
Positive
36.71
Positive
33.27
Positive
Market Momentum
0.40
Negative
61.52
Neutral
91.15
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UFCS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.44, above the 50-day MA of 37.55, and above the 200-day MA of 33.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UFCS.
United Fire Group Risk Analysis
United Fire Group disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. United Fire Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
United Fire Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $1.01B | 8.11 | 13.50% | 1.73% | 12.22% | 120.73% | |
79 Outperform | $963.20M | 5.15 | 37.99% | 2.18% | 4.61% | 73.40% | |
79 Outperform | $803.66M | 4.62 | 47.28% | ― | 5.92% | 93.02% | |
76 Outperform | $1.11B | 11.55 | 11.29% | 4.59% | 13.35% | 16.56% | |
70 Outperform | $558.09M | 5.73 | 35.67% | ― | 16.34% | -1.26% | |
69 Neutral | $641.33M | 7.74 | 12.91% | 3.51% | 0.93% | 224.95% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
UFCS
United Fire Group
39.14
13.45
52.33%
DGICA
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17.30
0.02
0.11%
SAFT
Safety Insurance Group
74.76
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4.10%
UVE
Universal Insurance Holdings
34.39
12.92
60.19%
ACIC
American Coastal Insurance
11.47
1.05
10.06%
HRTG
Heritage Insurance Holdings
26.16
9.93
61.18%
United Fire Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
United Fire Group Hikes Dividend After Strong 2025 Results
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
United Fire Group, Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 10, 2026, highlighted by higher profitability, premium growth and improved underwriting performance versus 2024. Net income rose to $38.4 million for the...
Financial Disclosures
United Fire Group Schedules Q4 2025 Earnings Release
Neutral
Jan 26, 2026
On January 26, 2026, United Fire Group, Inc. announced that it will release its fourth quarter 2025 earnings after the market closes on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, followed by an earnings conference call on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, at 9 a.m. ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.