Heritage Insurance Holdings (HRTG)
NYSE:HRTG
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Heritage Insurance Holdings
(NYSE:HRTG)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$25.00
▼(-8.16% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/30/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (profitability, cash flow, and deleveraging) and a supportive earnings outlook with a new buyback, plus a positive reinsurance placement that reduces costs and strengthens catastrophe protection. These positives are partially offset by weak technical momentum and the stock’s history of results volatility.
Positive Factors
Catastrophe reinsurance program
A multi-year, indemnity-based reinsurance structure with large collateralized cat bonds materially reduces Heritage's catastrophe exposure and recurring reinsurance costs. This lowers earnings volatility from storms and improves capital efficiency across multiple future storm seasons, strengthening underwriting durability.
Negative Factors
Earnings volatility
Heritage's profitability has swung markedly across recent cycles; prior years showed sizable losses. This structural sensitivity to catastrophe frequency/severity and reserve development means earnings, capital ratios and return metrics can change rapidly, complicating forward planning and capital allocation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Catastrophe reinsurance program
A multi-year, indemnity-based reinsurance structure with large collateralized cat bonds materially reduces Heritage's catastrophe exposure and recurring reinsurance costs. This lowers earnings volatility from storms and improves capital efficiency across multiple future storm seasons, strengthening underwriting durability.
Read all positive factors
Heritage Insurance Holdings (HRTG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$653.43M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)527.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.3
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth1.25%
EPS Growth157.31%
CountryUS
Employees540
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.53
Shares Outstanding30,349,924
10 Day Avg. Volume500,680
30 Day Avg. Volume527,097
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.79
Price to Sales (P/S)1.07
P/FCF Ratio5.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.00Price Target Upside28.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)4.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$887.81M
Heritage Insurance Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) operates through its subsidiaries, specializing in providing comprehensive insurance products for both personal and commercial residential properties. For individual policyholders, the company offers person...
How the Company Makes Money
Heritage Insurance Holdings primarily makes money through its insurance underwriting operations and investment income. (1) Premiums earned: The company writes property and casualty insurance policies and collects premiums from policyholders. Premi...
Heritage Insurance Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call contained multiple clear operational and financial improvements (recordable first-quarter earnings, materially improved underwriting metrics at Heritage, ROE strength, strong retention and early new-business momentum, plus Calumet’s strategic milestones — MaxSAF on time and meaningful renewables and fuels tailwinds). Challenges were notable but largely manageable and often described as temporary: market-driven premium pressures in select book segments, modest expense ratio increases, a few operational outages and hedging/working-capital impacts at the fuels/renewables operator. On balance the positives (profitability, margin improvement, strategic capacity delivery, and liquidity/deleveraging focus) outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Record First-Quarter Profitability (Heritage)
Net income of $36.5 million, or $1.19 per diluted share, vs $30.5 million ($0.99) in Q1 2025 — the highest first-quarter earnings since becoming public in 2014.
Negative Updates
Commercial Residential Pressure (Heritage)
Commercial residential in-force premium declined 7.8% YoY due to competitive pricing pressure in the Florida commercial market, causing continued policy count reduction in that product line.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record First-Quarter Profitability (Heritage)
Net income of $36.5 million, or $1.19 per diluted share, vs $30.5 million ($0.99) in Q1 2025 — the highest first-quarter earnings since becoming public in 2014.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to continued improvement in reinsurance pricing and lower loss costs in 2026, expecting those trends to support premium relief for policyholders while maintaining margins, and signaled controlled, profitable growth with new business up ~62.7% year‑over‑year (and >30% YoY by another measure), retention at ~88%, rate adequacy in ~90% of geographies, improving sequential policy‑count trends with double‑digit growth in some states, and a modest first‑year Texas E&S entry focused on Tier 1/2 coastal areas; Q1 results underpinning the guidance included net income of $36.5M ($1.19/diluted share) vs. $30.5M ($0.99) a year earlier, ROE of 28.5%, average shareholders’ equity up 65.5% YoY, premiums in force of $1.427B (‑0.4% YoY), gross premiums written $346.7M (‑2.6% QoQ), gross premiums earned $153.6M, net premiums earned $199.7M, net loss ratio 45.9% (down 3.8 pts YoY), net expense ratio 35.2% (vs. 34.8%), net combined ratio 81% (improved 3.5 pts), net investment income $9.9M (+15.1% YoY), an effective tax rate of 25.6%, and a new $50M share‑repurchase authorization (replacing a $25M authorization of which $12M was used).Heritage Insurance Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 775.57M | 847.33M | 816.99M | 735.50M | 662.46M | 631.56M |
| Gross Profit | 396.79M | 534.08M | 178.75M | 141.76M | 4.99M | 58.22M |
| EBITDA | 288.50M | 279.85M | 103.16M | 71.90M | -149.00M | -59.62M |
| Net Income | 201.60M | 195.59M | 61.54M | 45.31M | -154.36M | -74.73M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.02B | 2.20B | 2.47B | 2.12B | 2.39B | 1.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 625.06M | 658.68M | 544.00M | 553.17M | 394.56M | 1.03B |
| Total Debt | 99.05M | 99.81M | 141.34M | 148.19M | 160.19M | 151.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.50B | 1.69B | 2.18B | 1.90B | 2.26B | 1.64B |
| Stockholders Equity | 520.37M | 505.25M | 290.80M | 220.28M | 131.04M | 343.05M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 200.82M | 174.16M | 78.86M | 60.52M | -46.64M | 59.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 206.26M | 182.24M | 87.09M | 70.42M | -34.26M | 60.13M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -73.50M | -32.67M | -91.60M | 100.81M | -37.86M | -124.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -38.83M | -40.63M | -5.19M | 14.55M | -5.06M | -17.28M |
Heritage Insurance Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
27.22
Price Trends
25.34
Negative
25.85
Negative
26.02
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.23
Negative
37.50
Neutral
42.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HRTG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.33, above the 50-day MA of 25.34, and above the 200-day MA of 26.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HRTG.
Heritage Insurance Holdings Risk Analysis
Heritage Insurance Holdings disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Heritage Insurance Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Heritage Insurance Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.16B | 8.86 | 14.36% | 1.73% | 10.58% | 96.22% | |
75 Outperform | $653.43M | 3.28 | 43.68% | ― | 1.25% | 157.31% | |
74 Outperform | $1.02B | 5.20 | 37.50% | 2.18% | 3.57% | 198.87% | |
71 Outperform | $639.78M | 9.48 | 10.41% | 3.51% | -2.46% | -11.49% | |
68 Neutral | $1.03B | 16.06 | 7.16% | 4.59% | 10.67% | -13.23% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $494.82M | 4.73 | 33.02% | ― | 10.65% | 39.18% |
* Financial Sector Average
HRTG
Heritage Insurance Holdings
21.53
-2.00
-8.50%
DGICA
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17.08
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-6.13%
SAFT
Safety Insurance Group
69.81
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UFCS
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45.24
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63.24%
UVE
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36.57
10.65
41.08%
ACIC
American Coastal Insurance
10.21
0.11
1.07%
Heritage Insurance Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Heritage Insurance Optimizes 2026-2027 Catastrophe Reinsurance Program
Positive
May 29, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Heritage Insurance Holdings announced it had fully placed its 2026-2027 indemnity-based catastrophe excess-of-loss reinsurance program covering Heritage Property Casualty Insurance Company, Narragansett Bay Insurance Company and Z...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.