Heritage Insurance Holdings (HRTG)
NYSE:HRTG
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Heritage Insurance Holdings
(NYSE:HRTG)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$32.00
▲(20.80% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
Overall score is driven by the strong financial turnaround (profitability, cash flow, and improved capital position) and supportive earnings-call guidance, with additional lift from a very low P/E. The main constraint is the insurer’s historical earnings/cash-flow volatility and catastrophe/competitive exposure, while technicals remain constructive.
Positive Factors
Material profitability rebound and margin improvement
A pronounced multi-year profitability recovery—large net income, very strong ROE, and a 62% combined ratio—indicates sustained underwriting discipline and expense control. These durable margin gains improve capital generation capacity and resilience across future underwriting cycles.
Negative Factors
Historic earnings and cash-flow volatility tied to CAT cycles
Past large underwriting losses and swings in cash flow demonstrate the franchise’s sensitivity to catastrophe frequency and severity. Even with recent improvement, periodic CAT events and reserve uncertainty can materially erode earnings, capital, and cash for extended periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Material profitability rebound and margin improvement
A pronounced multi-year profitability recovery—large net income, very strong ROE, and a 62% combined ratio—indicates sustained underwriting discipline and expense control. These durable margin gains improve capital generation capacity and resilience across future underwriting cycles.
Read all positive factors
Heritage Insurance Holdings (HRTG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$813.80M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)346.62K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.6
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth5.92%
EPS Growth93.02%
CountryUS
Employees540
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.15
Shares Outstanding30,720,919
10 Day Avg. Volume334,424
30 Day Avg. Volume346,617
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.79
Price to Sales (P/S)1.07
P/FCF Ratio5.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.28
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$36.50Price Target Upside37.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)4.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$906.05M
Heritage Insurance Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial residential insurance products. The company offers personal residential property insurance for single-family homeowners and condominium owners, and renta...
How the Company Makes Money
Heritage Insurance Holdings primarily makes money through its insurance underwriting operations and investment income. (1) Premiums earned: The company writes property and casualty insurance policies and collects premiums from policyholders. Premi...
Heritage Insurance Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong execution and materially improved profitability — large year-over-year increases in net income, a much stronger combined ratio, substantial growth in tangible book value, a high ROE, and robust surplus and capital positioning. Management highlighted disciplined underwriting, rate adequacy in over 90% of geographies, a meaningful increase in new business production, and expectations for improved reinsurance pricing. Headwinds noted include modestly lower in-force premiums (0.1% decline), competitive pressure in commercial residential (notably Florida), wildfire-related losses ($31.8M pretax) and some reserve strengthening for lingering CAT claims, as well as the planned reduction of a quota share program that may raise acquisition costs. On balance, the positive operational and financial improvements overwhelmingly outweigh the manageable challenges cited.Positive Updates
Full Year Net Income Surge
Net income for full year 2025 of $195,600,000, or $6.32 per share, versus $61,500,000, or $2.01 per share in 2024 — an increase of approximately 218% year-over-year, demonstrating material earnings improvement.
Negative Updates
Minimal In-Force Premium Decline
In-force premiums were $1,432,000,000, a 0.1% decrease from $1,433,000,000 in the prior-year quarter, driven by competitive pressures reducing commercial residential business despite growth in personal lines.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full Year Net Income Surge
Net income for full year 2025 of $195,600,000, or $6.32 per share, versus $61,500,000, or $2.01 per share in 2024 — an increase of approximately 218% year-over-year, demonstrating material earnings improvement.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to accelerating revenue growth in 2026 driven by continued new business initiatives (new business premium production was +60% in Q4 year‑over‑year) and maintained underwriting discipline, noting rate adequacy in >90% of geographies and a planned entry into Texas on an E&S basis; management also expects reinsurance pricing and capacity to improve into the June 1 renewal and reiterated focus on exposure management, AI-driven analytics, and customer/claims improvements. Key metrics cited that frame the guidance include full‑year 2025 net income of $195.6 million ($6.32 per share) versus $61.5 million ($2.01) in 2024 (which included $31.8 million of net pre‑tax wildfire losses and LAE), Q4 2025 net income of $66.7 million ($2.15) vs $20.3 million ($0.66) a year earlier, Q4 net premiums earned of $202.7 million (+1.7%), gross premiums earned of $361.7 million (+0.4%), in‑force premiums of $1,432 million (‑0.1%), Q4 net investment income $9.8 million (+15.9%), a Q4 net combined ratio of 62.0% (net loss ratio 31.3%, net expense ratio 30.7%), tangible book value per share up 72.5% to $16.39 (book value per share $16.39, up 72% YoY), ROE 49% for 2025, total assets $2.2 billion, shareholders’ equity $505.3 million, non‑regulated cash $57.9 million, and combined statutory surplus $392.6 million (up $106.9 million YoY); management also signaled modest upside to investment income from a longer average fixed‑income duration (3.2 years) and noted an $18.0 million net‑of‑tax reduction in unrealized losses on the fixed‑income portfolio.Heritage Insurance Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 847.33M | 816.99M | 735.50M | 662.46M | 631.56M |
| Gross Profit | 534.08M | 178.75M | 141.76M | 4.99M | 58.22M |
| EBITDA | 279.85M | 103.16M | 71.90M | -149.00M | -59.62M |
| Net Income | 195.59M | 61.54M | 45.31M | -154.36M | -74.73M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.20B | 2.47B | 2.12B | 2.39B | 1.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 559.27M | 544.00M | 553.17M | 394.56M | 1.03B |
| Total Debt | 99.81M | 141.34M | 148.19M | 160.19M | 151.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.69B | 2.18B | 1.90B | 2.26B | 1.64B |
| Stockholders Equity | 505.25M | 290.80M | 220.28M | 131.04M | 343.05M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 174.16M | 78.86M | 60.52M | -46.64M | 59.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 182.24M | 87.09M | 70.42M | -34.26M | 60.13M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -32.67M | -91.60M | 100.81M | -37.86M | -124.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -40.63M | -5.19M | 14.55M | -5.06M | -17.28M |
Heritage Insurance Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
26.49
Price Trends
26.35
Positive
27.22
Negative
25.18
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Positive
46.82
Neutral
37.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HRTG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.37, above the 50-day MA of 26.35, and above the 200-day MA of 25.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HRTG.
Heritage Insurance Holdings Risk Analysis
Heritage Insurance Holdings disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Heritage Insurance Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Heritage Insurance Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $955.92M | 5.15 | 37.99% | 2.18% | 4.61% | 73.40% | |
80 Outperform | $950.44M | 6.27 | 13.50% | 1.73% | 12.22% | 120.73% | |
79 Outperform | $813.80M | 4.62 | 47.28% | ― | 5.92% | 93.02% | |
76 Outperform | $1.07B | 11.55 | 11.29% | 4.59% | 13.35% | 16.56% | |
70 Outperform | $559.06M | 5.73 | 35.67% | ― | 16.34% | -1.26% | |
69 Neutral | $636.87M | 7.74 | 12.91% | 3.51% | 0.93% | 224.95% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
HRTG
Heritage Insurance Holdings
26.49
12.71
92.24%
DGICA
Donegal Group
17.16
-1.25
-6.82%
SAFT
Safety Insurance Group
73.30
-2.54
-3.35%
UFCS
United Fire Group
37.24
8.13
27.92%
UVE
Universal Insurance Holdings
34.13
11.88
53.41%
ACIC
American Coastal Insurance
11.49
0.55
5.04%
Heritage Insurance Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Heritage Insurance Signals Strong Preliminary 2025 Profit Surge
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
Heritage Insurance Holdings said on February 23, 2026 that it expects to post fourth-quarter 2025 after-tax net income above $60 million, or more than $2.00 per share, and a full-year 2025 return on equity exceeding 45%, driven by higher revenue a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.