Thinkific Labs (TSE:THNC)
TSX:THNC
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Thinkific Labs
(TSX:THNC)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
C$1.50
▲(1.35% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is driven mainly by improving financial trajectory and a low-risk balance sheet, supported by a cautiously positive earnings outlook despite near-term profitability investment headwinds. These positives are tempered by weak technical trend signals and a stretched valuation (high P/E with no dividend support).
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet and liquidity
Very low leverage and a $51M cash position provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and solvency risk, supports continued investment in product/AI and GTM shifts, and gives runway to weather execution cycles without forcing dilutive financing.
Negative Factors
Slowing top-line growth trend
A material deceleration from mid-teens to low-single-digit growth reduces the tailwinds that justify heavy reinvestment. Slower revenue expansion constrains operating leverage, makes achieving durable profit improvement harder, and raises sensitivity to churn or market shifts.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet and liquidity
Very low leverage and a $51M cash position provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and solvency risk, supports continued investment in product/AI and GTM shifts, and gives runway to weather execution cycles without forcing dilutive financing.
Read all positive factors
Thinkific Labs (THNC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$100.25M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)67.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)73.3
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth14.05%
EPS Growth-62.16%
CountryCA
Employees275
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.01
Shares Outstanding67,736,210
10 Day Avg. Volume52,103
30 Day Avg. Volume67,633
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.11
Price to Book (P/B)2.23
Price to Sales (P/S)1.29
P/FCF Ratio17.73
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$2.17Price Target Upside46.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)>-0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$76.12M
Thinkific Labs Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Thinkific Labs Inc. develops, markets, and supports cloud-based platform in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company's platform enables entrepreneurs and established businesses to create, market, sell, and deliver online courses...
How the Company Makes Money
Thinkific primarily makes money through recurring subscription revenue from customers who pay for access to its SaaS platform (typically tiered plans based on features and usage). These subscriptions provide the core, predictable revenue stream as...
Thinkific Labs Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed constructive progress on strategic priorities (upmarket motion, Commerce penetration, AI product launch) with measurable revenue and ARPU gains and improvement in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year. However, management flagged several near-term headwinds: Self Serve softness and churn, a modest GMV backdrop, margin pressure from a Commerce mix shift, and a planned Q1 hit to adjusted EBITDA due to one-time AI/R&D investments. Leadership transitions were managed with an interim CFO and a board addition. Overall, the tone was cautiously optimistic: execution is showing early signs of success but the company expects short-term investment-driven profit volatility while pursuing upmarket expansion and AI-enabled product initiatives.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth (Q4 and FY2025)
Q4 revenue of $18.7M, up 6% year-over-year; full-year 2025 revenue of $73.2M, up 9% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Self-Serve Softness and Higher Churn
Self Serve revenue showed softness: Q4 Self Serve $13.7M (+3% YoY) but impacted by higher churn and lower-tier accounts amid the upmarket pivot; company noted deliberate reduced spend on creator-focused marketing.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth (Q4 and FY2025)
Q4 revenue of $18.7M, up 6% year-over-year; full-year 2025 revenue of $73.2M, up 9% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Thinkific guided Q1 2026 revenue of $18.6–$18.9 million (growth of 4%–6%) and expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of 2%–5% of revenue (roughly $0.4–$0.94 million) driven by mostly one-time AI/R&D investments, with management forecasting a quick return to adjusted-EBITDA profitability and improvements through the year; they also said Q2 Commerce revenue should be roughly in line with Q1. Additional relevant metrics cited on the call: Q4 revenue $18.7M (up 6% YoY), FY2025 revenue $73.2M (up 9% YoY), ARPU $175/month (up 5%), ARR $61M (up 5%), Q4 Commerce revenue $3.5M (up 13% QoQ) and FY Commerce $13.4M (up 32%), GMV $117M in Q4 ($460M FY), penetration 62% in Q4 (expected to flatten in the mid-60% range), Q4 take rate ~4.3% (FY avg ~4.4%), Q4 gross margin 72.5%, Q4 adjusted EBITDA $1M (6% of revenue), and cash/short-term investments of $51M.Thinkific Labs Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 74.47M | 66.94M | 59.05M | 51.48M | 38.12M |
| Gross Profit | 53.10M | 50.31M | 44.56M | 39.11M | 29.21M |
| EBITDA | 14.24K | -1.06M | -9.26M | -29.75M | -23.63M |
| Net Income | 1.31M | -237.00K | -9.78M | -41.90M | -28.44M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 62.66M | 61.37M | 97.79M | 102.97M | 132.40M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 50.60M | 49.49M | 86.61M | 93.85M | 126.05M |
| Total Debt | 1.47M | 1.77M | 1.03M | 1.96M | 875.26K |
| Total Liabilities | 19.49M | 19.77M | 15.85M | 15.12M | 10.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 43.18M | 41.59M | 81.94M | 87.85M | 121.61M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.42M | 6.75M | -5.44M | -27.11M | -18.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.69M | 6.99M | -5.43M | -25.85M | -18.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -43.39M | -166.00K | 53.37K | -1.26M | -655.16K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.83M | -42.60M | -2.41M | -241.18K | 138.26M |
Thinkific Labs Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | C$8.32B | 38.38 | 10.76% | ― | 14.55% | 15.55% | |
74 Outperform | C$716.24M | 5.85 | 73.40% | ― | 16.25% | 31.71% | |
67 Neutral | C$886.15M | 14.62 | 12.17% | 5.69% | -0.72% | -9.27% | |
63 Neutral | C$100.25M | 73.32 | 3.03% | ― | 14.05% | -62.16% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
59 Neutral | C$7.65B | 12.20 | 10.88% | 3.27% | -5.01% | 13.21% | |
56 Neutral | C$1.67B | -12.26 | -37.01% | ― | 17.23% | -435.45% |
* Technology Sector Average
TSE:THNC
Thinkific Labs
1.48
-1.00
-40.32%
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Thinkific Labs Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Thinkific Reshapes Finance Leadership and Board as Strategy Evolves
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
Thinkific Labs, a leading learning commerce platform, announced that Chief Financial Officer Corinne Hua will step down on March 13, 2026, with long-time executive Kevin Wilson appointed Interim CFO on March 9 as the company conducts a search for ...
Financial Disclosures
Thinkific Sets March 5 Date to Unveil Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results
Neutral
Jan 21, 2026
Thinkific Labs will release its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results after markets close on March 5, 2026, and will host a conference call and webcast the same day at 5:00 p.m. ET to review its financial and operational performance....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.