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Lightspeed POS Inc (TSE:LSPD)
TSX:LSPD

Lightspeed POS Inc (LSPD) AI Stock Analysis

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Lightspeed POS Inc

(TSX:LSPD)

Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
Lightspeed POS Inc shows strong revenue growth and a solid financial structure, but profitability and cash flow challenges persist. Technical indicators and valuation metrics suggest caution, while strategic initiatives and corporate events provide positive signals. Overall, the score reflects a balanced view of opportunities and challenges facing the company.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Lightspeed reported good F4Q25 results with revenue above estimates, indicating a positive step in executing its strategy.
Market Opportunities
LSPD sees a significant total addressable market in retail verticals, with a strong supplier integration contributing to a high win rate.
Strategic Growth
Doubling down on outbound sales force with 150+ new outbound reps expected to drive medium-term growth targets.
Negative Factors
Guidance and Expectations
FY28 targets were discounted by a FY25 guidance cut earlier in the week implying a large miss in Q4 vs. prior guide.
Macro Environment
Macro pressures in its end-markets create uncertainty, impacting the company's guidance posture.
Transparency and Market Perception
Lack of transparency hurts the story – the promise of annual location disclosures is not enough for investors looking to track quarterly progress.

Lightspeed POS Inc (LSPD) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Lightspeed POS Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLightspeed POS Inc (LSPD) is a leading provider of cloud-based point-of-sale (POS) and e-commerce solutions, primarily serving small to medium-sized businesses across various sectors including retail, hospitality, and golf. The company offers a comprehensive platform that integrates inventory management, customer management, sales analytics, and multi-location connectivity, enabling business owners to streamline operations and enhance customer experiences.
How the Company Makes MoneyLightspeed POS Inc generates revenue through a subscription-based model where businesses pay a recurring fee for access to its software solutions. The company also earns income from the sale of hardware products necessary for POS operations, such as card readers and receipt printers. Additionally, Lightspeed benefits from transaction-based revenue, earning a percentage of sales processed through its payment services. Strategic partnerships with payment processors, financial institutions, and other technology providers further bolster its revenue by expanding its market reach and capabilities.

Lightspeed POS Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 22, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: 5.49%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call revealed significant achievements in revenue growth, profitability, and strategic execution, including a major milestone of surpassing $1 billion in annual revenue. However, challenges such as macroeconomic headwinds impacting same-store sales and a significant goodwill impairment charge were noted. Despite these challenges, the company's strategic focus and investments in product innovation provide a positive outlook.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue Milestone
Lightspeed exceeded $1 billion in annual revenue for the first time, achieving an 18% year-over-year growth.
Substantial Growth in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA increased from $1.3 million to $53.7 million, demonstrating improved profitability.
Successful Share Repurchase Program
Lightspeed repurchased approximately 18.7 million shares, returning $219 million to investors.
Increase in Software ARPU
Software ARPU grew 11% year-over-year, reflecting strong adoption of new modules and price optimization.
Expansion in Product Innovation
Investment in product development increased by 35%, leading to new product features and enhanced customer solutions.
Negative Updates
Same-Store Sales Softness
Macro headwinds impacted same-store sales, particularly in North American hospitality, affecting transaction-based revenue.
Goodwill Impairment Charge
A $556 million goodwill impairment charge was recorded due to volatility in technology valuations and share price.
Lower Gross Payments Volume Penetration
GPV as a percentage of GTV remained flat at 38% in Q4, with expectations for slow improvement.
Company Guidance
During the Lightspeed Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided comprehensive guidance, highlighting several key metrics and strategic initiatives. Lightspeed reported surpassing $1 billion in annual revenue for the first time, with revenue growth of 18% and a substantial increase in adjusted EBITDA from $1.3 million to $53.7 million. The company completed a share repurchase program, buying back approximately 18.7 million shares, representing 12% of outstanding shares, for $219 million. In Q4, software ARPU grew 11% year-over-year, and gross margin reached 44%, driven by disciplined cost management. Lightspeed also outlined its strategy focusing on North American retail and European hospitality markets, aiming for a three-year CAGR of 10% to 15% in customer locations. The company plans to increase product development investment by 35% in fiscal 2026 and expects total revenue growth of 10% to 12% year-over-year, with total adjusted EBITDA projected between $68 million and $72 million.

Lightspeed POS Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Lightspeed POS Inc demonstrates strong revenue growth and a robust balance sheet with minimal leverage. However, the company faces persistent challenges with profitability and cash flow generation. Continued efforts to manage operating expenses and improve cash flow efficiency are critical for long-term financial health.
Income Statement
72
Positive
The company has shown significant revenue growth from 2020 to TTM, with a TTM revenue of approximately $1.05 billion, a substantial increase from $120 million in 2020. However, profitability remains a concern, as evidenced by negative net income and EBIT margins, indicating ongoing operational challenges. While gross profit margin is stable at around 41.6% in TTM, the net profit margin is negative due to high operating expenses.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Lightspeed POS Inc maintains a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.008 in TTM, indicating low leverage. The equity ratio stands at 93.6% in TTM, showcasing a solid capital structure. However, the company has consistently reported negative net income, impacting return on equity negatively and highlighting the need for improving profitability.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
The company has improved its cash flow from operations over the years, though it remains negative at -$51.36 million in TTM. The free cash flow has also shown growth potential but remains negative, indicating ongoing challenges in generating positive cash flows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting inefficiency in converting income into cash flows.
Breakdown
TTMMar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021Mar 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.05B909.27M730.51M548.37M221.73M120.64M
Gross Profit
438.06M385.25M331.96M271.17M127.30M77.44M
EBIT
-157.24M-203.02M-1.10B-318.34M-129.72M-58.41M
EBITDA
-12.83M-49.43M-956.91M-207.94M-90.69M-34.25M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-123.79M-163.96M-1.07B-288.43M-124.28M-53.53M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
232.65M722.10M800.15M953.65M807.15M210.97M
Total Assets
1.55B2.58B2.67B3.62B2.11B478.43M
Total Debt
55.55M23.21M25.19M60.51M55.45M46.53M
Net Debt
-177.10M-698.89M-774.96M-893.14M-751.70M-164.44M
Total Liabilities
179.43M162.75M171.28M220.69M171.04M134.29M
Stockholders Equity
1.37B2.41B2.50B3.40B1.93B344.14M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-73.76M-115.85M-138.41M-97.87M-94.86M-32.16M
Operating Cash Flow
-51.36M-97.67M-125.28M-87.22M-93.06M-28.55M
Investing Cash Flow
11.70M25.95M8.82M-563.93M-235.05M-120.29M
Financing Cash Flow
-46.84M-6.23M-35.41M798.06M922.32M153.53M

Lightspeed POS Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price15.75
Price Trends
50DMA
13.72
Positive
100DMA
16.02
Negative
200DMA
18.80
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.36
Negative
RSI
63.15
Neutral
STOCH
88.60
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LSPD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 15.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.83, above the 50-day MA of 13.72, and below the 200-day MA of 18.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.60 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:LSPD.

Lightspeed POS Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$197.95B90.3416.15%30.60%
TSKXS
73
Outperform
C$5.60B402.422.32%15.14%-31.45%
67
Neutral
C$1.10B34.9941.12%20.52%246.69%
63
Neutral
C$2.16B-33.64%23.95%39.68%
62
Neutral
$11.81B10.34-7.44%2.91%7.41%-7.93%
TSBB
56
Neutral
$3.38B-7.59%-31.15%30.02%
TSHUT
50
Neutral
C$2.65B3.76-6.53%15.44%-134.04%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:LSPD
Lightspeed POS Inc
15.75
-5.01
-24.13%
TSE:BB
BlackBerry
5.66
1.91
50.93%
TSE:SHOP
Shopify
152.58
65.76
75.74%
TSE:DCBO
Docebo
36.97
-15.39
-29.39%
TSE:KXS
Kinaxis Inc
198.11
48.44
32.36%
TSE:HUT
Hut 8
25.41
11.83
87.11%

Lightspeed POS Inc Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
Lightspeed to Announce Q4 and Full Year 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Apr 10, 2025

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. has announced that it will release its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 on May 22, 2025, before the market opens. The company will hold a conference call and webcast on the same day to discuss these results, which could provide insights into its operational performance and market positioning, potentially impacting stakeholders and the industry at large.

Spark’s Take on TSE:LSPD Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:LSPD is a Neutral.

The overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and a positive strategic outlook, but profitability challenges and bearish technical indicators weigh heavily. The recent earnings call and corporate events suggest a confident outlook, though valuation concerns persist.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:LSPD stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lightspeed Revises Fiscal 2025 Financial Outlook Amid Economic Challenges
Negative
Mar 24, 2025

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. has revised its fiscal 2025 financial outlook due to deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, including inflationary pressures and weakened consumer confidence, which have impacted consumer spending and small business optimism. The company now expects a year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 18%, down from the previously anticipated 20%, primarily due to pressure on transaction-based revenue. Despite these challenges, Lightspeed remains committed to profitable growth, cost management, and executing its core strengths. The company will present its three-year strategy at the upcoming Capital Markets Day.

Legal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lightspeed Commerce Secures Legal Victory with Dismissal of Class Action Lawsuit
Positive
Mar 4, 2025

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. announced a significant legal victory as the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York dismissed a securities class action lawsuit against the company and its executives, citing a lack of adequate legal basis for the allegations. The lawsuit was primarily based on a short-seller report by Spruce Point Capital Management, which was deemed inaccurate. This outcome allows Lightspeed to focus on its upcoming Capital Markets Day, where it will discuss its transformation plan and long-term financial outlook.

Business Operations and Strategy
Lightspeed to Present at Morgan Stanley Conference
Neutral
Feb 25, 2025

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. announced its participation in the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference, where Founder and CEO Dax Dasilva will speak. This participation underscores Lightspeed’s ongoing efforts to engage with investors and stakeholders, potentially enhancing its visibility and influence in the technology and commerce sectors.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lightspeed Announces Details for Capital Markets Day 2025
Neutral
Feb 13, 2025

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. has announced the details for its Capital Markets Day, scheduled for March 26, 2025, at the New York Stock Exchange. The event will provide insights into the company’s transformation plan, including operational and financial impacts, product updates, and long-term financial outlook, with opportunities for both in-person and virtual attendance.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lightspeed Initiates Strategic Transformation and Reports Strong Q3 Financials
Positive
Feb 6, 2025

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. announced the outcomes of its strategic review and third-quarter financial results for 2025, highlighting a transformation plan aimed at maximizing value for shareholders as a public company. The company reported a 17% increase in total revenue to $280.1 million and a positive adjusted EBITDA of $16.6 million. The transformation plan focuses on enhancing its go-to-market strategy and product offerings, particularly in North American retail and European hospitality, while also implementing a $400 million share repurchase program to return capital to shareholders.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.