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Lightspeed POS Inc (TSE:LSPD)
TSX:LSPD

Lightspeed POS Inc (LSPD) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:LSPD

Lightspeed POS Inc

(TSX:LSPD)

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Neutral 51 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
C$14.00
▲(1.67% Upside)
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (continued profitability and cash-flow conversion challenges) and bearish technicals (downtrend with negative MACD). These are partly offset by a constructive earnings call with raised guidance, improving EBITDA, and reported positive free cash flow, while valuation is difficult to assess due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Payments & Transaction Growth
A material and growing transaction revenue stream diversifies recurring SaaS income with usage-linked economics. Higher GPV and transaction revenue scale with merchant sales, increasing lifetime monetization potential and creating durable revenue linkage to customer success and network effects.
High & Improving Software Margins
Very high software margins and recent expansion indicate strong operating leverage in the cloud product stack. Sustainable software margin strength supports long‑term profitability as SaaS revenue scales, enabling reinvestment in product and go‑to‑market while preserving gross profit.
Improving Cash Generation & Balance Sheet Flexibility
Consecutive positive free cash flow and a sizable cash balance improve liquidity and optionality, enabling disciplined buybacks, M&A, or go‑to‑market investment without relying on external funding. This reduces execution risk and supports multi‑quarter strategic initiatives.
Negative Factors
Persistent GAAP Profitability Shortfall
Ongoing negative net income and EBIT margins signal the company has not yet converted top‑line growth into consistent GAAP profitability. This structural profit shortfall constrains retained earnings, investor flexibility, and long‑term ROE without sustained margin expansion or revenue acceleration.
Weak Cash Conversion Metrics
Poor operating cash conversion raises the risk that reported revenue and adjusted profits do not readily convert to cash. This structural cashflow weakness can limit reinvestment capacity, increase sensitivity to funding needs, and magnify downside if growth or margins slip.
Hardware Margin Pressure
Deep discounts on hardware to drive adoption create a lasting drag on blended gross margins because hardware unit losses offset high software margins. If payments/hardware incentives continue, blended profitability and free cash flow sustainability remain vulnerable despite software strength.

Lightspeed POS Inc (LSPD) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Lightspeed POS Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLightspeed Commerce Inc. provides commerce enabling Software as a Service (SaaS) platform for small and midsize businesses, retailers, restaurants, and golf course operators in Canada, the United States, Australia, the Netherlands, and internationally. Its SaaS platform enables customers to engage with consumers, manage operations, accept payments, etc. The company's cloud platforms are designed interrelated elements, such as omni-channel consumer experience, a comprehensive back-office operations management suite to improve customers' efficiency and insight, and the facilitation of payments. Its platform functionalities include full omni-channel capabilities, point of sale (POS), product and menu management, employee and inventory management, analytics and reporting, multi-location connectivity, order-ahead and curbside pickup functionality, loyalty, and customer management solutions. The company also offers tailored financial solutions, such as Lightspeed Analytics; Lightspeed Payments; and Lightspeed Capital, a merchant cash advance program. In addition, it sells POS peripheral hardware, including tablets, customer facing displays, receipt printers, networking hardware, cash drawers, payment terminals, servers, stands, bar-code scanners, and an assortment of accessories, as well as provides installation and implementation services. The company was formerly known as Lightspeed POS Inc. and changed its name to Lightspeed Commerce Inc. in August 2021. Lightspeed Commerce Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Montréal, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyLightspeed POS generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its POS software and services, which are offered on a monthly or annual basis. The company also earns income from payment processing fees, which are charged as a percentage of each transaction processed through its platform. Additional revenue streams include hardware sales, such as POS terminals and peripherals, and professional services, which encompass installation, training, and customer support. Strategic partnerships with payment processors and other technology providers further enhance its service offerings and contribute to its revenue growth.

Lightspeed POS Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q3-2026)
|
Next Earnings Date:May 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented clear operational momentum: revenue and gross profit beats, accelerated location growth (especially in the targeted growth engines), expanded software ARPU and strong adjusted EBITDA improvement. Management achieved consecutive positive free cash flow and strengthened gross margins—particularly software margins—while continuing to invest aggressively in outbound sales and AI-enabled product innovation. Offsetting items include hardware margin pressure from discounts, moderated software revenue growth due to lapping pricing and a strategic shift to annual contracts (near-term ARPU impact), seasonal Q4 headwinds, and elevated operating investments and share-based comp. On balance, the positive operational trends, margin expansion, and cash-flow improvement appear to meaningfully outweigh the near-term challenges and seasonality noted by management.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Total Revenue and Revenue Beat
Total revenue grew 11% year-over-year to $312.3 million in Q3, exceeding company outlook.
Growth Engines Outperformance
North America Retail and European Hospitality (the 'growth engines') accounted for ~2/3 of consolidated revenue and delivered 21% year-over-year revenue growth in the quarter; software revenue in the growth engines grew 13% year-over-year.
Customer Location Acceleration
Customer locations in growth engines grew 9% year-over-year in Q3 with ~2,600 net new locations added; total customer locations reached ~148,000 and location growth accelerated sequentially (3% → 5% → 7% → 9%).
Adjusted EBITDA Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA was $20.2 million, up 22% year-over-year, representing 15% of gross profit and moving toward the long-term 20% target.
Positive Free Cash Flow and Cash Position
Management reported positive free cash flow for the second consecutive quarter. Company-cited cash flow figures include $15 million of free cash flow (CEO commentary) and an adjusted free cash flow figure referenced at $50 million (CFO commentary). Cash balance ended Q3 at approximately $479 million, up ~$16 million from prior quarter.
GTV, GPV and Transaction Momentum
Gross Transaction Value (GTV) grew 8% year-over-year to $25.3 billion; GPV grew 19% year-over-year and transaction-based revenue was $209.4 million, up 15% year-over-year. GPV as a percentage of GTV rose to 42% from 38% YoY.
Software ARPU and Monetization Gains
Total monthly ARPU reached $660, up 11% year-over-year; software ARPU rose 4% year-over-year. Company highlighted cross-sell (modules), pricing & packaging evolution, and product innovation (Lightspeed AI, Marketplace, Tempo, Reservations, Tasks) as ARPU drivers.
Gross Margin Expansion and Software Margin Strength
Total gross margin improved to 43% from 41% YoY. Software gross margin expanded to 82% from 79% YoY, driven by cloud cost optimization, vendor negotiations and AI-driven support efficiencies. Transaction-based gross margin improved to 31% from 28% YoY; total gross profit grew 15% YoY (outpacing revenue growth).
Capital Business Traction and Balance Sheet Flexibility
Capital revenue grew 34% year-over-year and merchant cash advances outstanding totaled $106 million. Balance sheet flexibility: $200 million remaining under a broader buyback authorization (up to $400M) and shares outstanding down ~10% YoY after ~$179M repurchases in last 12 months.
Go-to-Market Investment Progress
Outbound sales team fully hired at 150 reps for the year; management reports outbound motion delivering highly targeted customer acquisition with attractive unit economics and early productivity gains, with plans to pull forward incremental go-to-market investment into Q4 where demand outpaced expectations.
Negative Updates
Moderation in Software Revenue Growth
Software revenue grew 6% year-over-year to $93 million, a moderation attributed to lapping prior year pricing actions and seasonality (including softness in Golf). Front-book SaaS ARPU is being impacted by a strategic shift from monthly to annual contracts (upfront discount), which moderates near-term SaaS revenue recognition despite expected LTV benefits.
Hardware Margin Pressure from Discounts
Hardware gross margins declined materially due to strategic discounts and incentives to drive new business and encourage payments adoption. Management expects hardware margins may range around negative 50% to negative 60% depending on new-business mix, creating a headwind to blended margins.
Quarterly Variability in Payments Penetration
Although payments penetration improved year-over-year (management cited 46% vs. 42% last year), penetration dipped versus Q2 due to GTV mix (seasonal strength in high-penetration verticals in Q2). Payments penetration shows seasonal variability and remains materially lower in efficiency markets (low 30s).
Operating Expense and Investment Spend
Adjusted R&D, sales & marketing and G&A grew 14% year-over-year as the company ramps outbound sales and invests in product innovation; management is pulling forward incremental Q4 investments where demand outpaced expectations, which could moderate near-term profitability if ramp assumptions underperform.
Seasonal Q4 Headwinds and Guidance Assumptions
Q4 is typically the lowest GTV quarter (seasonal); Q4 guidance reflects this seasonality with revenue guidance of $280–284 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance of ~$15 million. Management explicitly called out typical 15–20% GTV drop in fiscal Q4 vs other quarters as a headwind.
Share-Based Compensation and Payroll Tax Run-Rate
Share-based compensation and related payroll taxes were $16.5 million in the quarter (vs $13.6 million prior year), representing roughly 5% of revenue and contributing to elevated operating expense levels.
Mixed Messaging on Free Cash Flow Metrics
The call referenced differing free cash flow figures: CFO referenced 'adjusted free cash flow of $50 million' while CEO cited 'positive free cash flow of $15 million' for the quarter—indicating a divergence between reported and adjusted cash-flow measures that warrants care when reconciling performance.
Company Guidance
Lightspeed raised guidance and reaffirmed a profitable-growth trajectory: for fiscal Q4 it expects revenue of approximately $280–284 million, gross profit of about $125–127 million and adjusted EBITDA of roughly $15 million; for fiscal 2026 it now expects revenue of $1.216–1.22 billion, gross profit of $523–525 million and adjusted EBITDA of roughly $72 million. Management noted Q4 is typically the lowest‑GTV quarter (seasonal January–March patterns) but is pulling forward incremental go‑to‑market investment—notably in retail outbound—into Q4 to address stronger demand, reiterated its expectation to generate positive free cash flow for the full fiscal year (after reporting positive FCF in Q3), and highlighted progress on margin targets (adjusted EBITDA was 15% of gross profit in Q3, moving toward a 20% long‑term goal).

Lightspeed POS Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Revenue is growing modestly (3.75% TTM), but profitability remains weak with negative net profit and EBIT margins and a declining gross margin trend. While leverage is conservative (low debt-to-equity), return on equity is negative and cash conversion is a key issue, with weak operating cash flow vs. net income and negative free-cash-flow growth.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Lightspeed POS Inc. shows a modest revenue growth rate of 3.75% TTM, indicating some positive momentum. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has declined over time, suggesting increased cost pressures or pricing challenges.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting conservative leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, indicating that the company is not generating profits from its equity base. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a solid capital structure despite profitability challenges.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow metrics reveal significant challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate and a very low operating cash flow to net income ratio. This indicates difficulties in converting revenue into cash, which could impact liquidity if not addressed.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.16B1.08B909.27M730.51M548.37M221.73M
Gross Profit491.95M450.20M385.25M331.96M271.17M127.30M
EBITDA-541.36M-557.04M-49.43M-956.91M-207.94M-90.69M
Net Income-684.80M-667.20M-163.96M-1.07B-288.43M-124.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.68B1.83B2.58B2.67B3.62B2.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments463.64M558.47M722.10M800.15M953.65M807.15M
Total Debt17.47M16.97M23.21M25.19M60.51M55.45M
Total Liabilities162.46M162.24M162.75M171.28M220.69M171.04M
Stockholders Equity1.52B1.66B2.41B2.50B3.40B1.93B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.58M-55.88M-115.85M-138.41M-97.87M-94.86M
Operating Cash Flow30.72M-32.76M-97.67M-125.28M-87.22M-93.06M
Investing Cash Flow-11.91M8.04M25.95M8.82M-563.93M-235.05M
Financing Cash Flow-215.82M-138.68M-6.23M-35.41M798.06M922.32M

Lightspeed POS Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price13.77
Price Trends
50DMA
16.03
Negative
100DMA
16.37
Negative
200DMA
16.09
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.61
Positive
RSI
27.72
Positive
STOCH
10.46
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LSPD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.63, below the 50-day MA of 16.03, and below the 200-day MA of 16.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.72 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.46 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:LSPD.

Lightspeed POS Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
C$204.53B83.5315.74%33.71%28.57%
72
Outperform
C$7.87B36.8010.70%14.55%15.55%
67
Neutral
C$3.35B69.658.24%15.11%75.40%
65
Neutral
C$133.32M350.000.65%14.05%-62.16%
63
Neutral
C$359.99M65.718.14%1.07%7.00%110.62%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
51
Neutral
C$1.87B-2.12-37.01%17.23%-435.45%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:LSPD
Lightspeed POS Inc
12.76
-5.28
-29.27%
TSE:DSG
The Descartes Systems Group
91.48
-78.81
-46.28%
TSE:SHOP
Shopify
156.72
-13.25
-7.80%
TSE:KXS
Kinaxis Inc
120.08
-50.97
-29.80%
TSE:TCS
TECSYS Inc. J
24.59
-20.48
-45.44%
TSE:THNC
Thinkific Labs
2.02
-0.46
-18.55%

Lightspeed POS Inc Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresProduct-Related Announcements
Lightspeed Posts Strong Q3 2026 Results as New AI and Payments Tools Fuel Growth
Positive
Feb 5, 2026

Lightspeed reported third quarter 2026 revenue of $312.3 million, up 11% year over year and ahead of guidance, with gross profit rising 15% and margins improving to 43%. Transaction-based and subscription revenues both grew, while net loss widened to $33.6 million, though the company delivered positive adjusted income, higher adjusted EBITDA and significantly stronger operating and free cash flows, ending the quarter with $479 million in cash. Operationally, Lightspeed rolled out a series of new products and enhancements, including Lightspeed AI, a revamped retail Marketplace, Tap to Pay on Android, smart terminals, and new restaurant tools such as Lightspeed Tempo, Tasks, Reservations and expanded Mobile Tap in key European markets. These launches, together with strong performance in its core “growth engines” of North American retail and European hospitality—where revenue and gross transaction volume accelerated and roughly 2,600 net customer locations were added—underscore the company’s ongoing transformation toward higher-margin, scalable growth and improved profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LSPD) stock is a Hold with a C$13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lightspeed POS Inc stock, see the TSE:LSPD Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lightspeed Sets February 5 Date for Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call
Neutral
Jan 8, 2026

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. will release its fiscal third quarter 2026 financial results before markets open on Thursday, February 5, 2026, followed by a management-hosted conference call and webcast at 8:00 a.m. ET the same day. The announcement signals an upcoming update on the company’s operating performance and strategy execution, giving investors and other stakeholders a scheduled opportunity to assess Lightspeed’s progress in its core retail and hospitality markets and its positioning within the competitive global commerce technology landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LSPD) stock is a Hold with a C$16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lightspeed POS Inc stock, see the TSE:LSPD Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Lightspeed Sets Date for Fiscal Q3 2026 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Jan 8, 2026

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. announced it will release its fiscal third quarter 2026 financial results before markets open on Thursday, February 5, 2026, followed by a management-hosted conference call and webcast at 8:00 a.m. ET the same day. The company is providing advance registration for investors to access the telephonic call and a replay service through February 12, 2026, underscoring its efforts to maintain transparent communication with shareholders and the broader market ahead of a key financial update that could offer insight into its performance and strategic momentum in the retail and hospitality technology space.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LSPD) stock is a Hold with a C$16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lightspeed POS Inc stock, see the TSE:LSPD Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Lightspeed Appoints New CRO to Propel Growth Strategy
Positive
Nov 13, 2025

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. has appointed Gabriel Benavides as Chief Revenue Officer to drive its strategy for sustained, profitable growth. Benavides, with over 20 years of experience in global revenue leadership, will focus on aligning sales, marketing, and partnerships to enhance the company’s market execution and revenue growth. This leadership change comes as Lightspeed aims to strengthen its go-to-market strategies and deepen customer relationships, following a period of strong financial performance. Additionally, President JD Saint-Martin will step down, marking a transition in leadership that underscores Lightspeed’s commitment to operational excellence and sustainable growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LSPD) stock is a Buy with a C$16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lightspeed POS Inc stock, see the TSE:LSPD Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lightspeed Reports Strong Q2 2026 Results and Raises Fiscal Outlook
Positive
Nov 6, 2025

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2026, with a 15% year-over-year revenue increase to $319 million, and an 18% rise in gross profit. The company also achieved positive cash flow from operating activities and improved its Adjusted EBITDA. Lightspeed’s strategic focus on AI-driven innovation and market expansion in North America and Europe has led to significant growth in customer locations and software revenue, reinforcing its industry position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LSPD) stock is a Hold with a C$16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lightspeed POS Inc stock, see the TSE:LSPD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 05, 2026