Kinaxis Inc. J (TSE:KXS)
TSX:KXS
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Kinaxis Inc
(TSX:KXS)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
C$147.00
▲(4.24% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (growth, low leverage, and robust recent free cash flow) and a highly positive earnings call with upbeat 2026 guidance and improving margins. Offsetting these strengths are weaker technicals (below key longer-term moving averages, negative MACD) and a demanding valuation (high P/E with no dividend yield provided).
Positive Factors
Cash generation and conversion
Consistent strong operating cash flow and near‑par free‑cash‑flow conversion to net income provide durable funding for R&D, cloud migration, and buybacks. High cash conversion strengthens financial flexibility and cushions investment cycles across multi-year product commercialization.
Negative Factors
Earnings and margin volatility
Pronounced swings from breakeven to healthy margins signal sensitivity to investment cadence and deal timing. Such variability complicates multi‑period forecasting, can strain return metrics in down cycles, and raises execution risk as the company scales new offerings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation and conversion
Consistent strong operating cash flow and near‑par free‑cash‑flow conversion to net income provide durable funding for R&D, cloud migration, and buybacks. High cash conversion strengthens financial flexibility and cushions investment cycles across multi-year product commercialization.
Read all positive factors
Kinaxis Inc (KXS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$3.90B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)58.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)49.3
Beta (1Y)0.48
Revenue Growth15.11%
EPS Growth75.40%
CountryCA
Employees1,674
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.39
Shares Outstanding27,651,203
10 Day Avg. Volume51,659
30 Day Avg. Volume58,539
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)8.43
Price to Sales (P/S)6.36
P/FCF Ratio31.11
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$204.00Price Target Upside44.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)4.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$628.71M
Kinaxis Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kinaxis Inc. provides cloud-based subscription software for supply chain operations in the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, The Netherlands, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Singapore, France, Ireland, Germany, India, and Canada. It offers Kinaxis...
How the Company Makes Money
Kinaxis generates revenue primarily through subscriptions to its cloud-based software solutions, particularly the RapidResponse platform. The company employs a recurring revenue model, where customers pay for ongoing access to software services, m...
Kinaxis Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong positive momentum: record SaaS growth, accelerated ARR, record bookings and large-deal wins, significant margin and adjusted EBITDA expansion, strong cash position, and the commercial launch of agentic AI capabilities (Maestro Agent Studio) with a new monetization model (MAUs). Lowlights were largely executional and transitional (early-stage MAU monetization, professional services mix shift, one-time cash items, and CFO transition), and management provided conservative 2026 guidance while investing for growth. Overall, the positives substantially outweigh the manageable risks.Positive Updates
Record SaaS Revenue Growth
SaaS revenue of $97.2M in Q4, up 19% year-over-year (16% in constant currency). Full-year SaaS revenue grew 17% (16% constant currency), materially above initial guidance of 11%–13%.
Negative Updates
Uncertainty Around New MAU Pricing Impact
MAU-based pricing is early-stage: monetization upside is not baked into 2026 guidance, and Kinaxis expects iterative tweaks as usage patterns emerge. Variable AI costs and consumption-based dynamics add near-term uncertainty to revenue and cost modeling.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record SaaS Revenue Growth
SaaS revenue of $97.2M in Q4, up 19% year-over-year (16% in constant currency). Full-year SaaS revenue grew 17% (16% constant currency), materially above initial guidance of 11%–13%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Kinaxis guided to strong 2026 financials, calling for SaaS revenue growth of 17%–19% (midpoint aligned with constant‑currency ARR exit rate), total revenue of $620M–$635M, and an adjusted EBITDA margin target of 25%–26% (with 25% viewed as a new floor) as the company makes strategic AI and GTM investments; they expect professional services revenue to grow in the low single digits, maintenance & support to be flat to slightly down, and subscription term license revenue to grow ~60% versus 2025 (then decline toward ~25% by 2027) with ~60% of that revenue recognized in Q1, ~25% in Q4 and the remainder in Q2. Management also forecast steady gross margin expansion, subscription margin roughly in line with 2025, sales & marketing up high single digits, R&D up in the high‑20% range, G&A ex‑stock‑based comp up ~10% (including SBC >25%), CapEx of $8M–$10M, and noted they did not bake any near‑term upside from the new Maestro activity‑unit pricing into the guidance.Kinaxis Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 557.62M | 483.11M | 426.97M | 366.89M | 250.73M |
| Gross Profit | 337.91M | 294.58M | 258.90M | 235.79M | 163.97M |
| EBITDA | 114.09M | 25.76M | 28.75M | 44.83M | 5.82M |
| Net Income | 71.94M | 56.00K | 10.06M | 20.08M | -1.17M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 723.40M | 684.93M | 687.00M | 654.63M | 515.37M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 324.12M | 298.32M | 290.85M | 228.04M | 231.19M |
| Total Debt | 47.92M | 48.91M | 51.42M | 57.53M | 55.23M |
| Total Liabilities | 302.59M | 289.65M | 235.45M | 249.27M | 197.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 420.80M | 395.28M | 451.56M | 405.37M | 318.20M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 114.07M | 90.15M | 78.31M | 6.08M | 16.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 119.86M | 94.45M | 80.64M | 23.79M | 49.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -56.06M | -12.97M | -68.40M | -72.76M | -34.05M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -83.96M | -79.67M | -12.23M | 26.04M | 5.75M |
Kinaxis Inc Technical Analysis
Neutral
141.02
Price Trends
133.15
Positive
152.54
Negative
171.30
Negative
Market Momentum
1.63
Negative
53.27
Neutral
71.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KXS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 141.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 138.35, above the 50-day MA of 133.15, and below the 200-day MA of 171.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:KXS.
Kinaxis Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | C$8.01B | 38.38 | 10.76% | ― | 14.55% | 15.55% | |
74 Outperform | C$670.79M | 16.69 | 73.40% | ― | 16.25% | 31.71% | |
69 Neutral | C$3.90B | 49.33 | 16.46% | ― | 15.11% | 75.40% | |
67 Neutral | C$907.95M | 14.62 | 12.17% | 5.69% | -0.72% | -9.27% | |
64 Neutral | C$5.65B | 41.97 | 15.74% | ― | 21.17% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
59 Neutral | C$7.48B | 12.20 | 10.88% | 3.27% | -5.01% | 13.21% |
* Technology Sector Average
TSE:KXS
Kinaxis Inc
141.02
-30.20
-17.64%
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Kinaxis Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Kinaxis CFO to Depart Amid Strong AI-Driven Growth Momentum
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
Kinaxis Inc., a Canadian supply chain orchestration specialist, develops the AI-powered Maestro platform to help global enterprises manage complex supply chains with greater transparency and agility. Its software supports planning and execution ac...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Kinaxis Posts Record Q4 2025 as SaaS and Recurring Revenue Surge
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
Kinaxis reported record fourth-quarter 2025 results, with SaaS revenue up 19% and annual recurring revenue rising 20% to $433 million, supported by strong incremental bookings and a remaining performance obligation nearing $1 billion. The company ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Kinaxis Moves to Maximize Share Buybacks as It Sees Market Undervaluing AI-Driven Supply Chain Platform
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
Kinaxis plans to amend its normal course issuer bid to increase the maximum number of common shares it can repurchase from 5% of its issued and outstanding shares to 10% of its public float, the maximum allowed under Toronto Stock Exchange rules. ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Kinaxis Moves to Maximize Share Buyback Amid Confidence in AI-Driven Supply Chain Platform
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
Kinaxis Inc. plans to amend its current normal course issuer bid to increase the maximum number of common shares it can repurchase from about 1.4 million to roughly 2.8 million, or 10% of its public float as of October 31, 2025, the maximum allowe...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Kinaxis Names AI-Focused Supply Chain Veteran Razat Gaurav as CEO
Positive
Jan 8, 2026
Kinaxis Inc. has appointed veteran supply chain and enterprise software executive Razat Gaurav as its new Chief Executive Officer, effective January 12, 2026, at which time he will also join the board of directors. Gaurav, who previously led Planv...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Kinaxis Names AI-Focused Supply Chain Veteran Razat Gaurav as New CEO
Positive
Jan 8, 2026
Kinaxis has appointed veteran supply chain executive Razat Gaurav as its new CEO, effective January 12, 2026, with Gaurav also joining the board of directors as part of a planned leadership transition. Bringing more than 25 years of experience at ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.