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Canadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce (TSE:CM)
TSX:CM
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Canadian Bank of Commerce
(TSX:CM)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
C$148.00
â–²(6.73% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/03/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile cash flow and elevated leverage despite strong profitability and improving ROE. Offsetting these risks, technicals show a clear uptrend with positive momentum, and valuation is reasonable with a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong profitability & ROE
Sustained above‑average margins and mid‑teen ROE indicate the bank generates attractive returns on equity and internal capital. This supports reinvestment, dividend capacity and resilience across cycles, enabling durable funding of growth and strategic initiatives over months.
Diversified revenue mix and growth
Strong TTM revenue growth driven by commercial and capital markets reduces reliance on any single product or geography. A broader earnings base and cross‑segment contribution support recurring fee and interest income, improving durability of top‑line over the medium term.
Established retail & commercial franchise
A wide product set and presence across retail, commercial and wealth imply stable deposit flows, cross‑sell opportunities and diversified fee streams. Scale and client relationships underpin competitive advantage and structural revenue stability over months.
Negative Factors
Weak operating and free cash flow
Persistently low operating cash and negative free cash flow constrain internal funding, reducing flexibility to invest, pay dividends or absorb losses. Reliance on non‑operational sources or balance‑sheet moves increases execution and funding risk over the medium term.
Elevated leverage profile
Higher leverage amplifies sensitivity to credit and funding stress and narrows capital buffers. Rising leverage limits strategic flexibility, may increase regulatory scrutiny or capital costs, and constrains ability to grow loans or absorb adverse credit cycles sustainably.
Volatile earnings and cash generation
Material swings in revenue, margins and cash conversion reduce predictability of earnings and capital planning. Volatility complicates provisioning and strategic decisions, increasing the likelihood of episodic capital or funding actions that impair long‑term stability.
Canadian Bank of Commerce (CM) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$128.49B
Dividend Yield3.07%
Average Volume (3M)2.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.3
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth-3.13%
EPS Growth18.22%
CountryCA
Employees48,698
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.76
Shares Outstanding926,610,600
10 Day Avg. Volume2,296,659
30 Day Avg. Volume2,453,832
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.71
Price to Book (P/B)1.70
Price to Sales (P/S)1.75
P/FCF Ratio8.54
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$150.79Price Target Upside8.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)10.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$32.18B
Canadian Bank of Commerce Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, a diversified financial institution, provides various financial products and services to personal, business, public sector, and institutional clients in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through four strategic business units: Canadian Personal and Business Banking; Canadian Commercial Banking and Wealth Management; U.S. Commercial Banking and Wealth Management; and Capital Markets. The company offers chequing, savings, and business accounts; mortgages; loans, lines of credit, student lines of credit, and business and agriculture loans; investment and insurance services; and credit cards, as well as overdraft protection services. It also provides day-to-day banking, borrowing and credit, specialty, investing and wealth, and international services; correspondent banking and online foreign exchange services; and cash management services. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyThe Canadian Bank of Commerce generates revenue primarily through interest income, which is earned from loans and mortgages extended to customers. This includes personal loans, business loans, and home equity lines of credit. Additionally, the bank earns fees from account services, transaction processing, and asset management services. Investment income from its holdings in securities and other financial instruments also contributes significantly to its earnings. Furthermore, partnerships with financial technology firms and collaborations with other financial entities enhance its service offerings and customer reach, thereby driving additional revenue streams. The bank’s strong presence in both retail and commercial banking sectors allows it to capitalize on a diverse customer base, further solidifying its financial performance.
Canadian Bank of Commerce Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
CIBC reported a strong quarter with significant growth in net income, robust capital position, and positive operating leverage. The bank's digital and AI advancements were highlighted as key achievements. However, increased provisions for credit losses and challenges in the U.S. commercial real estate sector were notable concerns. Mortgage delinquency rates also showed some increase, particularly in stress-prone regions.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
CIBC delivered net income of $2.1 billion, up 11% from the prior year, and earnings per share of $2.16, up 12%. Pre-provision, pre-tax earnings also increased by 12%.
Robust Capital Position
The bank ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 13.4%, while repurchasing 5.5 million common shares. Announced intention to launch another normal course issuer bid for 2% of outstanding common shares.
Positive Operating Leverage
CIBC achieved its 8th consecutive quarter of positive operating leverage, aided by broad-based growth and healthy margin expansion.
Digital and AI Innovations
CIBC's digital banking capabilities were recognized with the highest ranking in customer satisfaction in the J.D. Power study. Their AI-powered voice assistant won the 2025 Digital CX Award for Best Use of AI for Customer Experience.
Capital Markets Growth
CIBC Capital Markets reported a 43% increase in net income year-over-year, driven by higher underwriting, advisory activity, and global markets revenues.
Negative Updates
Increased Provisions for Credit Losses
Total provision for credit losses was up 16% from a year ago, with impaired PCLs at 33 basis points. This is due to an evolving economic environment.
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Challenges
Continued execution of a strategy to move away from certain commercial real estate elements, leading to slightly higher payoff activity and reduced utilization rates.
Mortgage Delinquency Increase
90-plus day delinquencies in the mortgage portfolio showed a moderate increase, with GVA and GTA regions exhibiting more stress.
Company Guidance
During the CIBC Q3 2025 earnings call, the bank reported robust financial results with key metrics indicating strong performance. CIBC achieved an adjusted net income of $2.1 billion, reflecting an 11% increase from the previous year, and an earnings per share of $2.16, up 12%. The bank's return on equity improved to 14.2%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year ROE improvement. The CET1 ratio stood at a solid 13.4%, and CIBC repurchased 5.5 million common shares, highlighting a strong capital position. The bank's operating leverage remained positive for the eighth consecutive quarter, driven by a 12% increase in pre-provision, pre-tax earnings and broad-based growth across all business units. The provision for credit losses increased by 16% year-over-year but remained within guidance, with impaired losses favorably low. CIBC continued to outperform in key areas such as digital banking, client satisfaction, and strategic client growth, particularly in capital markets, where U.S. revenue growth was up 37% year-to-date. The bank also announced plans for a new normal course issuer bid for 2% of its outstanding common shares, indicating confidence in its earnings trajectory and balance sheet strength.Canadian Bank of Commerce Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability and growth are solid (TTM net margin ~17.6%, ROE ~mid-teens, revenue +20.7%), and KPIs suggest broader earnings engines (US Commercial and Capital Markets contributing). However, the balance sheet shows higher leverage (debt-to-equity ~5.55, up versus prior years) and cash generation is a major weakness with very low operating cash flow and negative free cash flow in TTM, plus notable volatility/one-offs affecting headline results.Income Statement
Profitability is solid and improving: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin is ~17.6% with operating profitability around ~21.7%, and return on equity in the mid-teens. Revenue growth is strong in TTM (+20.7%), and net income is up versus recent years. Offsetting this, results are volatile across periods (notably large swings in revenue and margins between 2024/2025 and TTM), which reduces confidence in the durability of the run-rate.76
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows typical bank leverage but is elevated: debt-to-equity is ~5.55 in both the latest annual period and TTM (and up from ~3.55–3.74 in 2022–2024), pointing to higher balance-sheet risk. Equity has grown over time, and return on equity has improved to ~15.0% in TTM, but the higher leverage profile limits the score despite strong asset scale.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is the key weak spot. In TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), operating cash flow is very low (~$0.25B) and free cash flow is negative (~-$0.92B), a sharp deterioration from the prior annual period where both were strongly positive. The multi-year history also shows volatility (including negative operating and free cash flow in 2021), which increases uncertainty around cash conversion and funding flexibility.34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 53.08B | 62.01B | 23.61B | 21.31B | 20.78B | 19.86B |
| Gross Profit | 27.75B | 26.67B | 23.52B | 21.29B | 20.80B | 19.80B |
| EBITDA | 12.73B | 12.12B | 10.34B | 8.05B | 8.73B | 9.01B |
| Net Income | 9.36B | 8.43B | 7.12B | 5.00B | 6.22B | 6.43B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.13T | 1.12T | 1.04T | 975.72B | 943.60B | 837.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.00B | 92.81B | 93.25B | 80.52B | 92.72B | 88.15B |
| Total Debt | 174.05B | 355.82B | 208.49B | 194.50B | 187.45B | 164.17B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.07T | 1.05T | 982.98B | 922.51B | 893.22B | 791.85B |
| Stockholders Equity | 65.32B | 64.13B | 58.73B | 52.98B | 50.18B | 45.65B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -916.00M | 12.73B | 10.00B | 11.14B | 21.61B | -4.17B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 246.00M | 13.84B | 11.09B | 12.15B | 22.71B | -3.33B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.21B | -5.78B | -20.75B | -20.76B | -24.39B | -3.51B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 10.68B | -4.31B | -2.61B | -2.16B | -1.61B | -1.95B |
Canadian Bank of Commerce Technical Analysis
Positive
138.67
Price Trends
129.29
Positive
123.60
Positive
111.26
Positive
Market Momentum
2.90
Negative
63.63
Neutral
66.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 138.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 133.49, above the 50-day MA of 129.29, and above the 200-day MA of 111.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.90 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CM.
Canadian Bank of Commerce Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $127.41B | 15.30 | 10.39% | 4.32% | -3.65% | -1.73% | |
69 Neutral | C$323.08B | 15.63 | 15.48% | 2.58% | 2.13% | 25.16% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | C$227.03B | 10.77 | 17.76% | 3.34% | 3.07% | 144.41% | |
64 Neutral | C$128.49B | 14.28 | 14.85% | 3.07% | -3.13% | 18.22% | |
62 Neutral | C$140.46B | 16.32 | 10.53% | 3.61% | -1.30% | 20.41% | |
58 Neutral | C$74.10B | 18.10 | 13.53% | 2.64% | 7.50% | -5.28% |
* Financial Sector Average
TSE:CM
Canadian Bank of Commerce
138.67
58.76
73.54%
TSE:BMO
Bank Of Montreal
198.90
60.47
43.68%
TSE:BNS
Bank Of Nova Scotia
103.37
36.76
55.18%
TSE:RY
Royal Bank Of Canada
230.74
72.87
46.16%
TSE:TD
Toronto Dominion Bank
134.38
52.88
64.89%
TSE:NA
National Bank of Canada
190.80
77.06
67.75%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.