National Bank of Canada (TSE:NA)
TSX:NA
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National Bank of Canada
(TSX:NA)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
C$225.00
▲(10.88% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/28/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance but moderated by cash-flow volatility and leverage. The latest earnings call was a meaningful positive (raised ROE/EPS targets, strong synergy delivery, and expanded buybacks). Technically the trend is strong, though overbought readings reduce the technical score, while valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Synergy execution
Consistent execution on CWB integration—$176M of cost/funding synergies realized and on track for $270M by end‑FY2026—indicates durable cost base reductions and integration momentum. This lowers structural operating expenses, supports margin expansion and lasting ROE gains over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt-to-equity around 2.9x, while improved from ~4.4x, still denotes meaningful leverage typical of banks but raises sensitivity to funding costs and credit stress. Elevated leverage can constrain capital flexibility and amplify earnings volatility if credit conditions or interest costs deteriorate over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Synergy execution
Consistent execution on CWB integration—$176M of cost/funding synergies realized and on track for $270M by end‑FY2026—indicates durable cost base reductions and integration momentum. This lowers structural operating expenses, supports margin expansion and lasting ROE gains over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
National Bank of Canada (NA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$77.45B
Dividend Yield2.64%
Average Volume (3M)1.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.1
Beta (1Y)0.86
Revenue Growth6.36%
EPS Growth7.80%
CountryCA
Employees29,508
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.43
Shares Outstanding387,257,930
10 Day Avg. Volume1,752,000
30 Day Avg. Volume1,970,101
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.65
Price to Book (P/B)1.76
Price to Sales (P/S)1.93
P/FCF Ratio14.35
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$205.75Price Target Upside1.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)12.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$15.54B
National Bank of Canada Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Bank of Canada provides various financial products and services to retail, commercial, corporate, and institutional clients in Canada and internationally. It operates through four segments: Personal and Commercial, Wealth Management, Fina...
How the Company Makes Money
National Bank of Canada primarily makes money through net interest income and non-interest income generated across its main operating segments.
1) Net interest income (spread-based revenue): The bank earns interest on loans and other interest-ear...
National Bank of Canada Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call showcased strong operational execution and financial results: double-digit revenue and PTPP growth, EPS up 11%, robust ROE (16.6%) and solid CET1, accelerated realization of cost/funding synergies (exceeding year-1 target) and active capital returns (upsized NCIB). Wealth, Capital Markets and Credigy reported notable growth, and credit metrics remained within guidance with sizable allowances. Offsetting risks include macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, elevated expenses (notably variable compensation), RWA volatility from FRTB, some deposit attrition tied to the CWB acquisition, and pockets of provisioning linked to specific files. Management presented clear plans for continued buybacks, integration synergies, and a pathway to 17%+ ROE in 2027 while maintaining cautious credit assumptions. Overall, positives outweigh the headwinds given execution on synergies, strong top-line growth and disciplined capital management.Positive Updates
Strong EPS Growth
Earnings per share of $3.25 in Q1 FY2026, representing an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by retail/business performance, CWB synergies and share buybacks.
Negative Updates
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Headwinds
Management highlighted a weighed economic backdrop: modest growth, soft labor market, trade tensions and CUSMA uncertainty slowing business investment and adding structural economic risk.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong EPS Growth
Earnings per share of $3.25 in Q1 FY2026, representing an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by retail/business performance, CWB synergies and share buybacks.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated stronger 2026–27 targets: EPS growth for 2026 is now expected at the top end of the 5–10% outlook (i.e., ~10%), the 2026 ROE target was raised to ~16% (from ~15%) with a path to 17%+ in fiscal 2027; they plan to converge CET1 toward ~13% by end‑FY2027 (Q1 CET1 13.74%), supported by capital generation of ~41 bps, partially offset by RWA growth (‑14 bps) and share buybacks (‑33 bps). Buyback activity: 6.4M shares repurchased to date (80% of the current program) and NCIB upsized to 14.5M shares (from 8M) pending approval. CWB integration targets remain on track: $176M of cost and funding synergies realized to date (ahead of the year‑1 $135M target), on track for $270M by end‑FY2026 and $50M of revenue synergies by year‑end (2027 planning assumes ~$90M incremental revenues contributing ~20 bps to ROE); the Laurentian deal is expected to deliver ~1.5–2% EPS accretion (~30 bps ROE) if closed by end‑2026. Credit guidance stays conservative: full‑year impaired PCLs 25–35 bps (Q1 total PCLs $244M/32 bps; impaired PCLs $215M/28 bps), total ACLs $2.5B (5.9x net charge‑offs; performing ACLs $1.6B, 2.1x). Balance‑sheet and business pacing: loans +23% YoY (+9% ex‑CWB), deposits +$5B/+2% sequential, personal mortgages +3% sequential (against a mid‑single‑digit 2026 mortgage growth target), AUA ≈$900B (+3% seq); Capital Markets expects PTPP $1.8–2.0B (aiming for the upper end), Credigy long‑term asset growth 5–10%, and the “other” segment PTPP loss now tracking toward about ‑$225M. Operational and margin notes: NII excluding trading +5% sequential, non‑trading NII +4% sequential, prepayments in Credigy $12M (≈1 bp to all‑bank margin), and P&C NIM expected to be relatively stable next quarter.National Bank of Canada Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 27.33B | 30.80B | 10.83B | 9.77B | 9.62B | 8.90B |
| Gross Profit | 14.01B | 13.01B | 10.84B | 10.16B | 9.62B | 8.90B |
| EBITDA | 6.37B | 5.79B | 5.06B | 0.00 | 4.73B | 4.46B |
| Net Income | 4.61B | 4.02B | 3.82B | 3.34B | 3.38B | 3.14B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 617.73B | 576.92B | 462.23B | 423.58B | 403.74B | 355.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 43.43B | 33.20B | 35.75B | 39.14B | 36.34B | 36.81B |
| Total Debt | 98.78B | 149.84B | 74.78B | 53.51B | 44.88B | 43.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 584.15B | 543.15B | 436.68B | 399.90B | 381.99B | 336.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 33.58B | 33.77B | 25.55B | 23.68B | 21.74B | 18.68B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.61B | 4.13B | 3.95B | 4.51B | -2.59B | 5.55B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.97B | 4.63B | 4.65B | 5.17B | -1.92B | 9.31B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -29.80B | -7.08B | -7.34B | -80.00M | -1.46B | 1.39B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 37.06B | -1.18B | -1.10B | 19.51B | -381.00M | -1.74B |
National Bank of Canada Technical Analysis
Positive
202.92
Price Trends
199.53
Positive
187.04
Positive
171.81
Positive
Market Momentum
0.24
Positive
49.99
Neutral
26.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 202.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 206.02, above the 50-day MA of 199.53, and above the 200-day MA of 171.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NA.
National Bank of Canada Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | C$159.27B | 16.58 | 11.25% | 3.61% | -4.35% | 21.22% | |
72 Outperform | C$371.23B | 17.05 | 15.95% | 2.58% | 1.99% | 22.50% | |
71 Outperform | C$77.45B | 17.05 | 13.77% | 2.64% | 6.36% | 7.80% | |
70 Outperform | C$139.11B | 13.95 | 15.24% | 3.07% | -3.32% | 27.25% | |
68 Neutral | C$137.30B | 14.57 | 11.06% | 4.32% | -5.52% | 47.19% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | C$263.97B | 17.60 | 11.85% | 3.34% | -11.69% | -11.99% |
* Financial Sector Average
TSE:NA
National Bank of Canada
203.44
73.94
57.10%
TSE:BMO
Bank Of Montreal
229.62
86.93
60.93%
TSE:BNS
Bank Of Nova Scotia
113.11
43.34
62.12%
TSE:CM
Canadian Bank of Commerce
151.59
60.97
67.27%
TSE:RY
Royal Bank Of Canada
270.94
102.56
60.91%
TSE:TD
Toronto Dominion Bank
158.03
65.81
71.36%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.