National Bank of Canada (TSE:NA)
TSX:NA
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National Bank of Canada
(TSX:NA)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
C$196.00
▲(10.43% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by moderate financial quality (good profitability/ROE but elevated leverage and volatile/weak TTM cash flow). Earnings-call commentary was a meaningful positive due to upgraded ROE/EPS targets, strong synergy delivery, and ongoing buybacks, while technicals are neutral-to-mixed and valuation appears reasonable.
Positive Factors
Diversified revenue base & segment growth
Sizable, multi‑segment revenue growth (retail, wealth, capital markets) reduces reliance on any single business cycle. Persistent, cross‑business top‑line expansion supports more stable earnings, smoothing capital generation and funding ability over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
A materially higher leverage profile increases sensitivity to funding cost shocks, credit stress and interest‑rate moves. Elevated leverage reduces financial flexibility, amplifies earnings volatility from underwriting losses or margin compression over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified revenue base & segment growth
Sizable, multi‑segment revenue growth (retail, wealth, capital markets) reduces reliance on any single business cycle. Persistent, cross‑business top‑line expansion supports more stable earnings, smoothing capital generation and funding ability over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
National Bank of Canada (NA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$68.73B
Dividend Yield2.64%
Average Volume (3M)1.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.6
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth7.50%
EPS Growth-5.28%
CountryCA
Employees29,508
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.25
Shares Outstanding387,257,930
10 Day Avg. Volume1,752,000
30 Day Avg. Volume1,970,101
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.65
Price to Book (P/B)1.76
Price to Sales (P/S)1.93
P/FCF Ratio14.35
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$189.07Price Target Upside6.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)12.63
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$15.40B
National Bank of Canada Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Bank of Canada provides various financial products and services to retail, commercial, corporate, and institutional clients in Canada and internationally. It operates through four segments: Personal and Commercial, Wealth Management, Fina...
How the Company Makes Money
National Bank of Canada primarily makes money through net interest income and non-interest income generated across its main operating segments.
1) Net interest income (spread-based revenue): The bank earns interest on loans and other interest-ear...
National Bank of Canada Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call showcased strong operational execution and financial results: double-digit revenue and PTPP growth, EPS up 11%, robust ROE (16.6%) and solid CET1, accelerated realization of cost/funding synergies (exceeding year-1 target) and active capital returns (upsized NCIB). Wealth, Capital Markets and Credigy reported notable growth, and credit metrics remained within guidance with sizable allowances. Offsetting risks include macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, elevated expenses (notably variable compensation), RWA volatility from FRTB, some deposit attrition tied to the CWB acquisition, and pockets of provisioning linked to specific files. Management presented clear plans for continued buybacks, integration synergies, and a pathway to 17%+ ROE in 2027 while maintaining cautious credit assumptions. Overall, positives outweigh the headwinds given execution on synergies, strong top-line growth and disciplined capital management.Positive Updates
Strong EPS Growth
Earnings per share of $3.25 in Q1 FY2026, representing an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by retail/business performance, CWB synergies and share buybacks.
Negative Updates
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Headwinds
Management highlighted a weighed economic backdrop: modest growth, soft labor market, trade tensions and CUSMA uncertainty slowing business investment and adding structural economic risk.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong EPS Growth
Earnings per share of $3.25 in Q1 FY2026, representing an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by retail/business performance, CWB synergies and share buybacks.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated stronger 2026–27 targets: EPS growth for 2026 is now expected at the top end of the 5–10% outlook (i.e., ~10%), the 2026 ROE target was raised to ~16% (from ~15%) with a path to 17%+ in fiscal 2027; they plan to converge CET1 toward ~13% by end‑FY2027 (Q1 CET1 13.74%), supported by capital generation of ~41 bps, partially offset by RWA growth (‑14 bps) and share buybacks (‑33 bps). Buyback activity: 6.4M shares repurchased to date (80% of the current program) and NCIB upsized to 14.5M shares (from 8M) pending approval. CWB integration targets remain on track: $176M of cost and funding synergies realized to date (ahead of the year‑1 $135M target), on track for $270M by end‑FY2026 and $50M of revenue synergies by year‑end (2027 planning assumes ~$90M incremental revenues contributing ~20 bps to ROE); the Laurentian deal is expected to deliver ~1.5–2% EPS accretion (~30 bps ROE) if closed by end‑2026. Credit guidance stays conservative: full‑year impaired PCLs 25–35 bps (Q1 total PCLs $244M/32 bps; impaired PCLs $215M/28 bps), total ACLs $2.5B (5.9x net charge‑offs; performing ACLs $1.6B, 2.1x). Balance‑sheet and business pacing: loans +23% YoY (+9% ex‑CWB), deposits +$5B/+2% sequential, personal mortgages +3% sequential (against a mid‑single‑digit 2026 mortgage growth target), AUA ≈$900B (+3% seq); Capital Markets expects PTPP $1.8–2.0B (aiming for the upper end), Credigy long‑term asset growth 5–10%, and the “other” segment PTPP loss now tracking toward about ‑$225M. Operational and margin notes: NII excluding trading +5% sequential, non‑trading NII +4% sequential, prepayments in Credigy $12M (≈1 bp to all‑bank margin), and P&C NIM expected to be relatively stable next quarter.National Bank of Canada Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 26.97B | 30.80B | 10.83B | 9.77B | 9.62B | 8.90B |
| Gross Profit | 13.68B | 13.01B | 10.84B | 10.16B | 9.62B | 8.90B |
| EBITDA | 6.07B | 5.79B | 5.06B | 0.00 | 4.73B | 4.46B |
| Net Income | 4.27B | 4.02B | 3.82B | 3.34B | 3.38B | 3.14B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 605.87B | 576.92B | 462.23B | 423.58B | 403.74B | 355.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.77B | 33.20B | 35.75B | 39.14B | 36.34B | 36.81B |
| Total Debt | 97.51B | 149.84B | 74.78B | 53.51B | 44.88B | 43.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 572.65B | 543.15B | 436.68B | 399.90B | 381.99B | 336.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 33.22B | 33.77B | 25.55B | 23.68B | 21.74B | 18.68B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.04B | 4.13B | 3.95B | 4.51B | -2.59B | 5.55B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -638.00M | 4.63B | 4.65B | 5.17B | -1.92B | 9.31B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -27.66B | -7.08B | -7.34B | -80.00M | -1.46B | 1.39B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 31.81B | -1.18B | -1.10B | 19.51B | -381.00M | -1.74B |
National Bank of Canada Technical Analysis
Neutral
177.49
Price Trends
176.29
Positive
172.10
Positive
158.25
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.12
Positive
44.53
Neutral
47.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 177.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 183.21, above the 50-day MA of 176.29, and above the 200-day MA of 158.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:NA.
National Bank of Canada Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | C$119.44B | 9.41 | 14.75% | 3.07% | -3.13% | 18.22% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | C$68.73B | 12.62 | 12.83% | 2.64% | 7.50% | -5.28% | |
66 Neutral | C$307.04B | 13.71 | 15.37% | 2.58% | 2.13% | 25.16% | |
64 Neutral | C$214.35B | 13.22 | 17.26% | 3.34% | 3.07% | 144.41% | |
62 Neutral | C$115.97B | 14.70 | 10.41% | 4.32% | -3.65% | -1.73% | |
60 Neutral | C$129.26B | 13.18 | 10.47% | 3.61% | -1.30% | 20.41% |
* Financial Sector Average
TSE:NA
National Bank of Canada
177.49
61.47
52.98%
TSE:BMO
Bank Of Montreal
183.03
51.09
38.72%
TSE:BNS
Bank Of Nova Scotia
94.09
29.40
45.45%
TSE:CM
Canadian Bank of Commerce
128.90
50.77
64.99%
TSE:RY
Royal Bank Of Canada
219.85
62.87
40.05%
TSE:TD
Toronto Dominion Bank
126.87
44.11
53.30%
National Bank of Canada Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
National Bank of Canada Starts 2026 With 26% Profit Surge on CWB Acquisition
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
National Bank of Canada posted a strong start to fiscal 2026, with first-quarter net income rising 26% year over year to $1.254 billion, driven by solid performance across all segments and the consolidation of Canadian Western Bank. Diluted earnin...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
National Bank of Canada Moves to Expand Share Buyback Program
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
National Bank of Canada plans to amend its existing normal course issuer bid to significantly increase the number of common shares it can buy back and cancel, subject to regulatory approvals. The proposed change would raise the maximum repurchase ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
National Bank of Canada Moves to Boost Share Buyback Capacity
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
National Bank of Canada plans to significantly expand its ongoing share repurchase program by seeking approval to increase the maximum number of common shares it can buy back for cancellation to 14,500,000, or 3.70% of its outstanding float. The c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.