Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $227.58B
• Dividend Yield: 3.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.72M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: 3.07%
• EPS Growth: 144.41%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 100,424
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 2.44
• Shares Outstanding: 1,689,496,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,167,251
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,717,870
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.72
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.13
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.65
• 1Y Price Target: $147.90
• Price Target Upside: 9.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.41
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $60.06B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: C$146.00 ▲(8.39% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/03/26

The score is driven primarily by improved profitability and ROE, tempered by weak cash flow consistency and high leverage. Technicals add support via a clear uptrend with positive momentum, while valuation is favorable with a modest P/E and solid dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified revenue & cross-border franchise

TD's mix of net interest and non‑interest income across Canada and the U.S., plus digital channel investment, creates a durable, less concentrated revenue base. Cross‑border scale and product breadth reduce reliance on any single market and support multi‑year customer acquisition and fee growth.

Improved profitability and ROE

Sustained higher margins and a near‑18% ROE indicate the bank is generating strong returns on equity, improving capacity to retain capital and fund growth. Durable profitability provides structural support for investment, risk absorption, and shareholder distributions over the next several quarters.

Large balance sheet scale

A ~2.1T asset base gives TD scale advantages in lending, deposit gathering and product distribution. Size supports diversification across portfolios and geographies, improves funding access and execution on large corporate or wealth mandates, enhancing franchise durability.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

While typical for large banks, a ~5.2x debt/equity ratio raises vulnerability to adverse credit cycles or tightening funding markets. High leverage limits margin for error, increases regulatory and market sensitivity, and can constrain capital actions during stress periods.

Volatile cash generation

Large year‑to‑year swings in operating and free cash flow undermine predictability of internal funding for growth and shareholder returns. This variability complicates capital planning, increases reliance on balance sheet management, and reduces confidence in cash conversion consistency.

Stagnant top‑line

The earnings rebound has been driven more by margin improvement than revenue expansion. Persistent revenue stagnation signals competitive pressure or market saturation in core businesses and limits sustainable long‑term earnings upside without renewed loan growth or fee diversification.

Toronto Dominion Bank Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Canadian Retail, U.S. Retail, and Wholesale Banking. The company offers personal deposits, such as chequing, savings, and investment products; financing, investment, cash management, international trade, and day-to-day banking services to businesses; and financing options to customers at point of sale for automotive and recreational vehicle purchases. It also provides credit cards and payments; real estate secured lending, auto finance, and consumer lending services; point-of-sale payment solutions for large and small businesses; wealth and asset management products, and advice to retail and institutional clients through direct investing, advice-based, and asset management businesses; and property and casualty insurance, as well as life and health insurance products. The company also provides capital markets, and corporate and investment banking products and services, including underwriting and distribution of new debt and equity issues; advice on strategic acquisitions and divestitures; and trading, funding, and investment services to corporations, governments, and institutions. It offers its products and services under the TD Bank and America's Most Convenient Bank brand names. The company operates through a network of 1,061 branches and 3,381 automated teller machines (ATMs) in Canada, and 1,148 stores and 2,701 ATMs in the United States, as well as offers telephone, digital, and mobile banking services. It has a strategic alliance with Canada Post Corporation. The Toronto-Dominion Bank was founded in 1855 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

TD generates revenue through several key streams, primarily focusing on net interest income and non-interest income. Net interest income comes from the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. This includes personal and commercial loans, mortgages, and credit products. Non-interest income is derived from fees for services such as asset management, investment banking, and transaction fees from credit and debit card usage. Additionally, TD benefits from wealth management services, which provide advisory services and investment products for high-net-worth individuals. The bank also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base. Overall, TD's diversified revenue model, strong presence in both Canadian and U.S. markets, and focus on digital banking innovations contribute significantly to its financial performance.

Toronto Dominion Bank Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Earnings and profitability have recovered strongly in TTM (net income 21.8B; net margin 19.1%; ROE ~17.5%), supported by improving operating segments (notably Canadian P&C and recovering U.S. retail). Offsetting this, revenue is slightly down in TTM (~-1.6%), leverage is high (debt-to-equity ~5.2x), and cash flow is the key weak spot due to large recent multi-year swings in operating/free cash flow despite a positive TTM.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved meaningfully versus the weak 2024 year, with net income rising to 21.8B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from 20.5B in 2025 and 8.8B in 2024, alongside a stronger net profit margin (19.1% TTM vs 17.7% in 2025 and 7.4% in 2024). Revenue, however, is slightly down in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (about -1.6% growth) and remains below the recent peak, indicating the earnings rebound has been driven more by margin/efficiency and normalization than by top-line expansion. Overall, the income statement shows solid profitability for a diversified bank, but with some recent revenue stagnation and multi-year volatility in margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is large and growing (assets ~2.10T in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), and shareholder returns have strengthened with return on equity at ~17.5% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (up from ~16.1% in 2025 and ~7.7% in 2024). The key constraint is leverage: debt-to-equity sits around ~5.2x in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (and was higher in 2024 at ~5.8x), which is typical for banks but still elevates sensitivity to credit/macro shocks and funding conditions. Equity is also relatively flat versus assets over the period, so the balance sheet profile is adequate but not conservatively positioned.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is inconsistent across periods: operating cash flow is positive in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (16.3B) and was strong in 2024 (54.9B), but was deeply negative in 2025 (-69.6B) and 2023 (-65.3B). Free cash flow shows the same volatility (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 14.1B vs large negatives in 2025 and 2023), and the reported free cash flow growth is sharply negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), reflecting an unfavorable swing from the prior year. While recent free cash flow is reasonably close to net income (about 0.87x in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), the magnitude of year-to-year swings lowers confidence in cash conversion stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Oct 2025	Oct 2024	Oct 2023	Oct 2022	Oct 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	114.03B	115.84B	119.17B	102.25B	59.44B	47.72B
Gross Profit	58.23B	56.78B	52.00B	48.59B	44.70B	42.49B
EBITDA	27.53B	25.81B	12.86B	14.80B	22.19B	19.20B
Net Income	21.79B	20.54B	8.84B	10.63B	17.43B	14.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.10T	2.09T	2.06T	1.96T	1.92T	1.73T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.29B	156.06B	230.49B	116.51B	156.98B	194.67B
Total Debt	269.22B	663.58B	662.56B	568.66B	502.06B	400.86B
Total Liabilities	1.97T	1.97T	1.95T	1.84T	1.81T	1.63T
Stockholders Equity	125.60B	127.83B	115.16B	112.07B	111.38B	99.82B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	14.08B	-71.79B	52.76B	-67.15B	37.49B	49.00B
Operating Cash Flow	16.26B	-69.65B	54.94B	-65.30B	38.95B	50.13B
Investing Cash Flow	27.15B	86.19B	-45.42B	76.23B	-31.89B	-45.27B
Financing Cash Flow	-43.34B	-15.50B	-9.81B	-12.85B	-4.82B	-5.04B

Toronto Dominion Bank Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 134.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 134.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 132.15, above the 50-day MA of 130.44, and above the 200-day MA of 111.25, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TD.

Toronto Dominion Bank Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RY	69 Neutral	$317.02B	13.71	15.48%	2.58%	2.13%	25.16%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
TD	67 Neutral	$227.58B	13.22	17.76%	3.34%	3.07%	144.41%
CM	64 Neutral	$127.22B	9.41	14.85%	3.07%	-3.13%	18.22%
BMO	62 Neutral	C$138.87B	13.18	10.53%	3.61%	-1.30%	20.41%
BNS	62 Neutral	C$123.81B	14.70	10.39%	4.32%	-3.65%	-1.73%
NA	58 Neutral	C$74.17B	12.62	13.53%	2.64%	7.50%	-5.28%