trivago (TRVG) AI Stock Analysis

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trivago

(NASDAQ:TRVG)

Rating:59Neutral

Price Target:

$4.50

▲(10.57%Upside)

trivago's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its mixed financial performance, with strong revenue growth countered by profitability challenges. Positive earnings call sentiment and strategic initiatives offer optimism, yet technical indicators and valuation metrics reflect current market apprehension.

Positive Factors

Brand Marketing

Trivago's brand marketing initiatives resulted in double digit revenue growth from branded channel traffic across Developed Europe and Rest of World.

Product Initiatives

Management highlighted several product initiatives that could drive continued conversion rate improvements, including AI-powered highlights, AI Smart Search, and Book & Go.

Negative Factors

Margins

Brand investments are likely to weigh on margins.

Profitability Concerns

There are questions around the relevance of the metasearch model and lack of visibility on TRVG's path to profitability.

trivago (TRVG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$296.99M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)173.27K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.79

Revenue Growth0.77%

EPS Growth87.59%

CountryUS

Employees668

SectorCommunication Services

Sector Strength90

IndustryInternet Content & Information

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.02

Shares Outstanding22,881,096

10 Day Avg. Volume69,570

30 Day Avg. Volume173,274

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-4.19

Price to Book (P/B)1.64

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio32.65

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$4.88

Price Target Upside19.90% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering5

trivago Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrivago N.V. is a global hotel and accommodation search platform, enabling users to compare hotel prices from various booking sites worldwide. Operating primarily in the travel and tourism sector, Trivago aggregates information and prices for hotels, vacation rentals, and other accommodations, providing users with a comprehensive overview to help them find the best deals. The platform is accessible through its website and mobile applications, serving as a go-to resource for travelers seeking to make informed booking decisions.

How the Company Makes MoneyTrivago primarily generates revenue through a business model known as cost-per-click (CPC). The company earns money when users click on hotel offers displayed in its search results, redirecting them to partner booking sites, such as online travel agencies and direct hotel websites, where the actual booking transaction takes place. These partners pay Trivago a fee for each user referral, constituting the core of its revenue stream. Additionally, Trivago may generate some revenue from display advertising, although this represents a smaller portion of its overall earnings. Significant partnerships with major global hotel chains and online travel agencies further bolster its financial performance by ensuring a broad range of offers and competitive pricing for its users.

trivago Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 5.71%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Trivago's Q1 2025 earnings call reflects a strong focus on growth through successful brand marketing and strategic partnerships. Despite posting a net loss, the company showed substantial revenue growth and advancements in AI, indicating a positive outlook. The increase in operational expenses and a decline in ROAS in the Americas were notable drawbacks.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth

Trivago achieved a 22% year-over-year increase in total revenues for Q1 2025, with strong double-digit growth across all three reporting segments.

Brand Marketing Success

The company's brand marketing investments have been successful, with significant increases in branded channel traffic and improvements in booking conversion rates.

Strategic Partnership with Holisto

Trivago successfully strengthened its strategic partnership with Holisto, which is expected to yield positive results in conversion rates and user experience.

AI and Machine Learning Advancements

Trivago expanded AI-generated hotel highlights to over 350,000 hotels and 11 languages, leveraging machine learning for better tailored search results.

Financial Stability

As of the end of Q1 2025, Trivago has EUR118.6 million in cash and cash equivalents, maintaining a strong financial position with no long-term debt.

Negative Updates

Net Loss Reported

Trivago reported a net loss of EUR7.8 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of EUR6.5 million for Q1 2025.

Operational Expenses Increase

Operational expenses increased by EUR20.7 million, primarily due to a EUR21.4 million rise in selling and marketing costs.

ROAS Decline in Americas

Return on Advertising Spend (ROAS) in the Americas decreased from 114.5% to 102.7%.

Company Guidance

During Trivago's Q1 2025 earnings call, the company announced a significant acceleration in its momentum, surpassing expectations for both top-line and bottom-line results. The CEO, Johannes Thomas, highlighted that Trivago is raising its full-year revenue growth guidance to mid-teens percentage and anticipates better-than-expected adjusted EBITDA profitability. The CFO, Robin Harries, reported a 22% year-over-year increase in total revenue, reaching EUR124.1 million. Despite a net loss of EUR7.8 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of EUR6.5 million, Trivago continues to see strong double-digit revenue growth across all regions. The company is increasing its brand marketing investments, resulting in a 31% increase in advertising spend in America, 50% in the rest of the world, and 7% in developed Europe. Trivago's return on advertising spend (ROAS) remained globally stable at 118.1%, with significant improvement in developed Europe. The company maintains a strong financial position with EUR118.6 million in cash and no long-term debt. Trivago is optimistic about its outlook and expects to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA similar to last year's levels, driven by strategic brand marketing investments and product enhancements.

trivago Financial Statement Overview

Summary

trivago shows a solid gross profit margin but struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative net income and EBIT margins. The balance sheet reflects low leverage and a strong equity position, though the decline in equity and assets is concerning. Cash flow generation is positive but has shown a downward trend, suggesting potential challenges in sustaining operational liquidity.

Income Statement

Neutral

trivago's TTM revenue shows modest growth compared to the previous annual report, but profitability remains a concern with negative EBIT and net income margins. The gross profit margin is strong, indicating effective cost management relative to revenue. However, the negative net profit and EBIT margins highlight ongoing challenges in achieving operational profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

trivago maintains a healthy balance sheet with a strong equity ratio, indicating a solid financial foundation. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting manageable leverage levels. However, the declining stockholders' equity over recent periods and the decrease in total assets warrant attention. Overall, the balance sheet reflects stability with potential risks if equity continues to decline.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow performance is mixed, with a decline in free cash flow compared to previous periods. The operating cash flow remains positive but has decreased from the prior year, and the free cash flow growth rate is negative. The company demonstrates an ability to generate operating cash flow, though the declining trend in free cash flow could impact future flexibility.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
483.53M	460.85M	485.03M	535.00M	361.46M	248.92M
	Gross Profit
472.57M	449.58M	473.06M	522.31M	349.96M	238.79M
	EBIT
-30.15M	-32.15M	-156.59M	64.45M	23.68M	-45.03M
	EBITDA
-22.41M	-24.48M	-147.30M	-120.26M	10.05M	-252.65M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-23.11M	-23.70M	-164.48M	-126.82M	10.70M	-244.64M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
118.59M	133.75M	127.07M	293.58M	256.38M	227.80M
	Total Assets
301.97M	300.72M	325.07M	691.59M	834.52M	830.90M
	Total Debt
37.85M	38.43M	40.73M	45.27M	47.54M	93.17M
	Net Debt
-80.74M	-95.31M	-61.11M	-203.32M	-208.84M	-115.19M
	Total Liabilities
110.93M	103.11M	110.05M	129.86M	140.74M	166.38M
	Stockholders Equity
191.05M	197.60M	215.02M	561.74M	693.78M	664.52M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
9.57M	17.45M	24.29M	62.29M	28.75M	2.37M
	Operating Cash Flow
12.75M	20.25M	27.80M	66.27M	32.54M	7.87M
	Investing Cash Flow
-13.38M	12.22M	16.29M	-54.91M	10.02M	-16.19M
	Financing Cash Flow
-714.00K	-774.00K	-190.44M	-19.62M	1.05M	-180.00K

trivago Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price4.07

Price Trends

50DMA

4.17

Negative

100DMA

4.07

Negative

200DMA

3.02

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.06

Positive

RSI

44.63

Neutral

STOCH

51.57

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRVG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.27, below the 50-day MA of 4.17, and above the 200-day MA of 3.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TRVG.

trivago Risk Analysis

trivago disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. trivago reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

trivago Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OPRA	80 Outperform	$1.71B	25.91	9.18%	4.08%	26.71%	-23.67%
EVER	74 Outperform	$935.37M	25.45	32.17%	―	113.43%	―
YELP	71 Outperform	$2.33B	17.23	19.74%	―	5.93%	29.17%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$14.75B	5.86	-3.99%	6.11%	2.67%	-30.24%
TRVG	59 Neutral	$296.99M	―	-11.66%	―	0.77%	87.59%
SEAT	51 Neutral	$368.87M	25.25	-1.00%	―	0.82%	-102.72%
KIND	47 Neutral	$627.45M	―	-18.77%	―	12.01%	35.71%

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TRVG

trivago

4.07

1.91

88.43%

YELP

Yelp

35.82

-0.45

-1.24%

EVER

EverQuote

25.74

6.56

34.20%

OPRA

Opera

18.99

5.09

36.62%

SEAT

Vivid Seats

1.80

-3.37

-65.18%

KIND

Nextdoor Holdings

1.55

-0.98

-38.74%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.