trivago (TRVG) AI Stock Analysis

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trivago

(NASDAQ:TRVG)

Rating:52Neutral

Price Target:

$3.50

▲(5.74% Upside)

trivago's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance challenges, including negative net income and cash flow issues. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, further impacting the score. However, the positive sentiment from the earnings call, driven by strong revenue growth and strategic initiatives, provides some optimism. Valuation concerns remain due to the negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Future Outlook

With improving fundamentals, the analyst raises the FY26E EBITDA estimate from €30m to €37m, maintaining Outperform and increasing the price target from $2.50 to $3.50.

Profitability and Earnings

The company delivered solid results with total revenue growth turning and EBITDA beating expectations by a wide margin.

Revenue Growth

Trivago's brand marketing initiatives resulted in double digit revenue growth from branded channel traffic across Developed Europe and Rest of World.

Negative Factors

Business Model Viability

There are questions around the relevance of the metasearch model and lack of visibility on TRVG's path to profitability.

Margins

Brand investments are likely to weigh on margins.

Profitability Concerns

TRVG expects to run around break-even in 2025, aligning with expectations but not showing significant profitability.

trivago (TRVG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$236.23M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)93.70K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.61

Revenue Growth8.29%

EPS Growth87.33%

CountryUS

Employees668

SectorCommunication Services

Sector Strength92

IndustryInternet Content & Information

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.02

Shares Outstanding22,881,096

10 Day Avg. Volume180,726

30 Day Avg. Volume93,703

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.76

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.35

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.36

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-8.12

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$4.20

Price Target Upside26.89% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering4

trivago Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Descriptiontrivago N.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates a hotel and accommodation search platform in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It offers an online meta-search for hotels and accommodation through online travel agencies, hotel chains, and independent hotels. The company provides access to its platform through 53 localized websites and apps in 31 languages. As of December 31, 2021, its hotel search platform offered access to approximately 5.0 million hotels and other types of accommodation worldwide. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Düsseldorf, Germany. trivago N.V. is a subsidiary of Expedia Lodging Partner Services Sarl.

How the Company Makes MoneyTrivago primarily generates revenue through a performance-based advertising model. The company earns money by charging hotels and online travel agencies (OTAs) a fee each time a user clicks on a hotel listing that redirects them to the advertiser's website to complete a booking, a process known as Cost Per Click (CPC). Key revenue streams include direct partnerships with hotel chains and OTAs that pay for increased visibility on the Trivago platform. Additionally, Trivago leverages its extensive data analytics capabilities to optimize advertising placements and enhance user experiences, which further attracts advertisers. The company's success is also bolstered by its global reach and brand recognition, which draws a significant volume of traffic to its website and mobile applications.

trivago Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: -31.61%|

Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflected a strong positive sentiment, with significant revenue growth, successful strategic initiatives, and promising acquisitions, despite some financial losses and FX headwinds.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue Growth

Trivago reported a 17% year-over-year increase in total revenue, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth and second consecutive quarter of double-digit growth across all segments.

Geographic Performance

The Rest of the World segment led with 32% year-over-year growth, followed by Developed Europe at 20%, and the Americas at 10%.

Successful Brand Marketing

Double-digit branded revenue growth was achieved across all geographic segments due to strategic brand marketing investments and a new global AI-powered campaign.

AI and Product Innovations

Launch of AI-powered review summaries for over 230,000 hotels and integration of AI Smart Search into the core hotel search experience, enhancing user experience.

Focus on Logged-in Users

Achieved 20% of referral revenue from logged-in users, with a 25% higher conversion rate among this group.

Acquisition of Holisto

Completed acquisition of Holisto, enhancing trivago's user experience and expected to generate low double-digit million euros in revenue.

Negative Updates

Net Loss Reported

A net loss of EUR 6.5 million was reported for the second quarter.

Negative Adjusted EBITDA

Reported a better-than-expected adjusted EBITDA loss of EUR 5.1 million, similar to the 2024 performance.

FX Headwinds

Foreign exchange-related headwinds negatively impacted revenue by approximately 3%, with a stronger effect of 7% in the Americas.

Company Guidance

In the second quarter of 2025 earnings call, trivago reported a 17% year-over-year revenue growth, marking their third consecutive quarter of growth and second consecutive quarter of double-digit growth across all segments. Geographic performance was robust, with Rest of the World leading at 32% year-over-year growth, Developed Europe at 20%, and the Americas at 10%. Despite a net loss of EUR 6.5 million, they achieved better-than-expected adjusted EBITDA loss of EUR 5.1 million. Operational expenses increased by EUR 19.9 million, primarily due to a EUR 21.8 million rise in selling and marketing expenses. Trivago maintained a global Return on Advertising Spend (ROAS) of 119%, with slight improvements in Rest of the World. The company also highlighted their strategic focus on brand marketing, product innovation, and partner empowerment, with significant progress in branded traffic and user engagement, particularly noting that 20% of referral revenue now comes from logged-in users. Additionally, trivago completed the acquisition of Holisto, an AI-driven travel technology company, to enhance their trivago Book & Go initiative.

trivago Financial Statement Overview

Summary

trivago's financial performance is mixed, with strong gross profit margins but ongoing challenges in profitability. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, though declining equity and assets are concerning. Cash flow is positive but trending downward, indicating potential liquidity challenges.

Income Statement

Neutral

trivago's TTM revenue shows modest growth compared to the previous annual report, but profitability remains a concern with negative EBIT and net income margins. The gross profit margin is strong, indicating effective cost management relative to revenue. However, the negative net profit and EBIT margins highlight ongoing challenges in achieving operational profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

trivago maintains a healthy balance sheet with a strong equity ratio, indicating a solid financial foundation. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting manageable leverage levels. However, the declining stockholders' equity over recent periods and the decrease in total assets warrant attention. Overall, the balance sheet reflects stability with potential risks if equity continues to decline.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow performance is mixed, with a decline in free cash flow compared to previous periods. The operating cash flow remains positive but has decreased from the prior year, and the free cash flow growth rate is negative. The company demonstrates an ability to generate operating cash flow, though the declining trend in free cash flow could impact future flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	504.24M	460.85M	485.03M	535.00M	361.46M	248.92M
Gross Profit	493.27M	449.58M	473.06M	522.31M	349.96M	238.79M
EBITDA	-21.98M	-24.48M	-147.30M	-120.26M	10.05M	-252.65M
Net Income	-24.67M	-23.70M	-164.48M	-126.82M	10.70M	-244.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	301.36M	300.72M	325.07M	691.59M	834.52M	830.90M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	111.24M	133.75M	127.07M	293.58M	256.38M	227.80M
Total Debt	37.25M	38.43M	40.73M	45.27M	47.54M	93.17M
Total Liabilities	115.89M	103.11M	110.05M	129.86M	140.74M	166.38M
Stockholders Equity	185.47M	197.60M	215.02M	561.74M	693.78M	664.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.62M	17.45M	24.29M	62.29M	28.75M	2.37M
Operating Cash Flow	10.10M	20.25M	27.80M	66.27M	32.54M	7.87M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.66M	12.22M	16.29M	-54.91M	10.02M	-16.19M
Financing Cash Flow	-945.00K	-774.00K	-190.44M	-19.62M	1.05M	-180.00K

trivago Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price3.31

Price Trends

50DMA

3.81

Negative

100DMA

4.03

Negative

200DMA

3.46

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.11

Positive

RSI

40.18

Neutral

STOCH

15.51

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRVG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.80, below the 50-day MA of 3.81, and below the 200-day MA of 3.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.51 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TRVG.

trivago Risk Analysis

trivago disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. trivago reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

trivago Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OPRA	73 Outperform	$1.46B	22.14	9.18%	4.59%	26.71%	-23.67%
EVER	71 Outperform	$855.50M	18.87	34.34%	―	92.91%	―
YELP	70 Outperform	$1.96B	14.04	20.13%	―	5.37%	13.08%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$44.03B	1.71	-11.99%	3.98%	2.32%	-37.93%
NXDR	54 Neutral	$716.53M	―	-14.27%	―	9.65%	56.50%
TRVG	52 Neutral	$236.23M	―	-12.44%	―	8.29%	87.33%
SEAT	50 Neutral	$178.19M	25.25	-75.68%	―	-10.52%	-420.74%

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TRVG

trivago

3.31

1.23

59.13%

YELP

Yelp

31.04

-3.24

-9.45%

EVER

EverQuote

23.26

0.86

3.84%

OPRA

Opera

17.01

4.58

36.85%

SEAT

Vivid Seats

16.73

-72.47

-81.24%

NXDR

Nextdoor Holdings

2.01

-0.49

-19.60%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 14, 2025