Nebius Group (NBIS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $22.95B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 13.08M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 178.9
• Beta (1Y): 2.07
• Revenue Growth: -87.55%
• EPS Growth: 336.73%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,371
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): -0.68
• Shares Outstanding: 218,158,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 11,593,460
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 13,077,148
• PEG Ratio: -1.99
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 39.98
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 43.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 63.59
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -83.45
• 1Y Price Target: $150.86
• Price Target Upside: 65.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): -2.51
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.23B

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $90.00 ▼(-1.30% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/14/26

Overall score reflects improving financial trajectory but still-weak operating profitability and materially negative free cash flow alongside higher leverage. The latest earnings call was a meaningful positive catalyst (strong demand/ARR, pricing, and cash generation), but valuation is expensive and technical indicators are currently mixed-to-soft.

Positive Factors

Explosive revenue and ARR growth

Massive top-line growth and a $1.2B ARR establish durable demand for Nebius’s AI compute services. Large, longer-duration contracts increase revenue visibility and stickiness, enabling predictable recurring cash flows and scaling advantages as data‑center capacity ramps.

Improving unit economics and cash generation

Positive adjusted EBITDA and substantial operating cash flow signal improving unit economics and pricing power for GPU services. Strong near-term cash balances and operating inflows materially reduce short-term liquidity risk and provide a funding base to support disciplined capacity expansion.

Platform expansion via strategic acquisition

Acquiring Tavily integrates real‑time search grounding with Nebius’s high‑performance inference, creating a broader, more integrated AI platform. This vertical stack strengthens differentiation, increases developer/enterprise lock‑in, and expands addressable market in agentic AI over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Very large 2026 CapEx requirement

A $16–20B capital plan creates significant funding and execution risk despite partial coverage. Large, concentrated buildouts increase schedule and supply‑chain exposure; unmet timing or cost overruns could delay revenue recognition, raise financing needs, and compress expected margins.

Near‑term operating losses persist

Management expects EBIT losses in 2026 even as adjusted EBITDA improves, implying depreciation, R&D, and other operating costs keep core profitability weak. Persistent operating losses constrain free cash flow conversion and make achievement of ambitious medium‑term EBIT targets contingent on flawless execution.

Rising leverage and negative free cash flow profile

Leverage above 1x and deeply negative free cash flow reduce financial flexibility ahead of massive capex. Higher debt service and potential future financings increase refinancing and dilution risk, limiting the company's ability to absorb deployment delays or weaker demand without external capital.

Nebius Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nebius Group N.V., operates as a technology company that engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry. Its businesses include Nebius, an AI-centric cloud platform built for intensive AI workloads. Nebius builds full-stack infrastructure for AI, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud platforms, and tools and services for developers. The company's businesses also comprise Toloka AI, a data partner for various stages of generative AI development; TripleTen, an edtech player re-skilling people for careers in tech; and Avride, which develops autonomous driving technology for self-driving cars and delivery robots. The company was formerly known as Yandex N.V. and changed its name to Nebius Group N.V. in August 2024. Nebius Group N.V. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands with R&D hubs across Europe, North America and Israel.

How the Company Makes Money

Nebius Group generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the company earns money by offering subscription-based cloud services, which include infrastructure as a service (IaaS) and platform as a service (PaaS) solutions. This model allows clients to pay for resources based on usage, providing a steady income stream. Additionally, Nebius Group provides consulting and implementation services, assisting businesses in integrating their cloud solutions and optimizing their data analytics capabilities. The company also partners with other technology firms to enhance its service offerings, which can lead to revenue-sharing agreements and collaborative projects. Furthermore, Nebius Group may engage in product licensing, where it licenses its proprietary software to other businesses, creating another significant revenue channel.

Nebius Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue rebound and improved gross profitability with net income turning positive, but operating profitability remains weak (deeply negative EBIT/EBITDA). Leverage has risen to a little above 1x debt-to-equity and free cash flow is deeply negative, increasing funding and execution risk.

Income Statement

The latest annual period shows a sharp rebound in scale, with revenue up materially year over year and a strong improvement in gross profitability. Net income also turned positive, lifting net margin into healthy territory. However, core operating profitability remains weak: both EBIT and EBITDA are still deeply negative, indicating the business is not yet consistently profitable from operations and results may be influenced by non-operating items. Overall, the trajectory is improving on growth and gross profit, but operating losses keep the income statement quality mixed.

Balance Sheet

Equity remains sizable relative to the asset base, but leverage has increased meaningfully in the most recent year, with debt rising to roughly match equity (debt-to-equity a little above 1x). While the company is no longer in a loss-making year on net income, returns on equity are still low, suggesting limited efficiency in generating profits from the capital base. The balance sheet is serviceable due to the equity cushion, but the step-up in debt adds financial risk and reduces flexibility.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is positive, which is a key support for liquidity, but it covers only a modest portion of accounting earnings in the latest year, pointing to weaker cash conversion. More importantly, free cash flow is deeply negative most recently, implying heavy investment and/or working-capital drag that is consuming cash despite positive operating inflows. The cash flow profile therefore looks volatile and currently pressured, with execution risk if large cash outlays persist.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	529.80M	117.50M	20.90M	13.50M	4.76B
Gross Profit	363.60M	44.10M	-11.00M	-14.90M	2.43B
EBITDA	-192.20M	-363.40M	-298.20M	-130.50M	109.87M
Net Income	101.70M	-641.40M	241.30M	745.60M	-196.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.45B	3.55B	8.76B	8.28B	6.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.68B	2.45B	121.20M	1.13B	1.44B
Total Debt	4.89B	49.70M	584.76M	1.39B	1.89B
Total Liabilities	7.84B	294.90M	5.46B	3.74B	3.25B
Stockholders Equity	4.61B	3.25B	3.29B	4.25B	3.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-3.68B	-562.10M	746.40M	682.40M	-473.75M
Operating Cash Flow	384.80M	245.60M	829.80M	697.00M	124.62M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.23B	311.60M	-1.21B	-403.10M	294.94M
Financing Cash Flow	5.13B	825.50M	375.60M	-100.30M	-1.14B

Nebius Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 91.19
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 91.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 93.85, below the 50-day MA of 93.87, and above the 200-day MA of 81.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NBIS.

Nebius Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TWLO	69 Neutral	$18.33B	613.70	0.43%	―	12.84%	―
DOCN	68 Neutral	$5.16B	22.31	―	―	14.20%	204.86%
ORCL	65 Neutral	$417.89B	27.33	70.60%	1.00%	11.08%	29.56%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
SNOW	60 Neutral	$57.63B	-42.62	-54.09%	―	28.48%	-19.12%
NBIS	50 Neutral	$22.95B	178.94	0.50%	―	-87.55%	336.73%
CRWV	49 Neutral	$41.47B	-31.36	-50.28%	―	235.40%	19.90%

Nebius Group Corporate Events

Nebius Group Posts Soaring 2025 AI Cloud Revenues Amid Heavy Infrastructure Spend

On February 12, 2026, Nebius Group reported unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighting explosive top‑line growth but persistent losses. Quarterly revenue surged to $227.7 million from $35.2 million a year earlier, while full‑year revenue jumped to $529.8 million from $91.5 million, driven by expansion in its AI cloud and related platforms.

Despite this scale‑up, Nebius remained loss‑making, with Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA swinging from a $63.9 million loss to a $15.0 million profit but net loss from continuing operations widening to $249.6 million. For 2025 as a whole, the company narrowed its loss from continuing operations to $29.0 million while ramping capital expenditures to $4.1 billion and significantly increasing depreciation, underscoring the heavy infrastructure build‑out required to compete in the AI cloud market and the ongoing risk‑reward balance for shareholders.

Operating expenses rose sharply across cost of revenues, product development, and SG&A, yet as a share of revenue they declined materially year on year, indicating improving operating leverage as the business scaled. Nebius also confirmed that Toloka, an AI development platform, was deconsolidated in the second quarter of 2025 and is now accounted for under the equity method, reflecting a more focused consolidation scope around its core AI infrastructure and adjacent businesses.

The company ended 2025 with 253,016,971 shares issued and outstanding, split between Class A and Class B stock excluding treasury shares, a structure relevant for voting dynamics and future equity‑based financing. Management accompanied the results with a shareholder letter from founder and CEO Arkady Volozh and scheduled an earnings webcast on February 12, 2026, signaling continued efforts to court global investors as Nebius positions itself more prominently in the rapidly evolving AI cloud sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBIS) stock is a Buy with a $211.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nebius Group stock, see the NBIS Stock Forecast page.

Nebius Group Moves to Replace Reanda With Deloitte as Auditor After Internal Control Concerns

Nebius Group N.V. announced on February 12, 2026, that its board will recommend shareholders approve the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as its independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. The move follows a review by the audit committee, which led to the decision to dismiss Reanda Audit & Assurance B.V. after it completes the 2025 year-end audit and the review of first-quarter 2026 results, contingent on shareholder approval.

Reanda’s audit opinion on Nebius’s 2024 financial statements was clean, with no adverse or qualified opinion and no reportable disagreements on accounting or auditing matters through the date of the filing. However, Reanda had previously issued an adverse opinion on Nebius’s internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2024, and the transition to Deloitte signals a significant change in the company’s audit oversight that may influence investor perceptions of its governance and control remediation efforts.

Nebius stated it did not consult Deloitte in advance on specific accounting treatments, potential audit opinions, or other reportable issues during 2024 and 2025, seeking to underscore the independence of the incoming auditor. Reanda has provided a confirmation letter to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission agreeing with Nebius’s description of the auditor change, aside from matters relating to Deloitte’s prior consultation history, reinforcing transparency around the planned shift in audit firms.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBIS) stock is a Buy with a $211.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nebius Group stock, see the NBIS Stock Forecast page.

Nebius to Acquire Agentic Search Leader Tavily to Strengthen AI Cloud Platform

On February 9, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. agreed to acquire AlphaAI Technologies Inc., which operates as Tavily, via a merger that will make Tavily a wholly owned subsidiary with operations in Israel and the UAE. The cash-upfront deal, whose value was not disclosed, includes potential performance-based earn-outs payable in cash or Nebius Class A shares and is expected to close in the coming days, subject to customary conditions.

Tavily, a leading agentic search provider with over three million monthly SDK downloads and a developer community exceeding one million users, will add real-time web search infrastructure to Nebius’s AI cloud stack. By integrating Tavily’s agentic search with Nebius’s Token Factory inference service, the company aims to offer a unified platform for building enterprise-grade autonomous agents, strengthening its competitive position in the rapidly expanding agentic AI market and reducing customers’ reliance on multiple vendors.

Tavily’s founder and CEO Rotem Weiss and the broader Tavily team will join Nebius, with the Tavily brand continuing to serve existing Fortune 500 and AI-native customers while leveraging Nebius’s global infrastructure. The deal underscores Nebius’s strategy to capture a projected multibillion-dollar agentic AI opportunity by owning critical infrastructure layers, from high-performance inference to real-time grounding, as enterprises scale deployment of autonomous AI systems.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBIS) stock is a Hold with a $126.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nebius Group stock, see the NBIS Stock Forecast page.