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Nebius Group (NBIS)
NASDAQ:NBIS
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Nebius Group
(NASDAQ:NBIS)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$101.00
▲(5.52% Upside)
Positive Factors
AI Market Position
Nebius is well-positioned in the AI market with its full stack software offering and cost advantages, expecting further outperformance.
Contract with Microsoft
Nebius Group has announced a multi-year contract valued as much as $19.4 billion with Microsoft, positioning the company on a tier-one competitive setting with its peers.
Revenue Growth
Nebius Group grew revenue by approximately 90 percent sequentially, showcasing the revenue growth promised to investors.
Negative Factors
Capital Expenditure
Nebius Group's capital expenditures have exceeded $540 million in the first quarter, projecting as much as $2 billion for the full year.
Earnings Estimate Miss
Nebius Group reported first quarter revenue of $55.3 million compared to the estimate of $77.5 million.
Negative EBITDA
EBITDA for 2024 is expected to be negative at $(37.6M).
Nebius Group (NBIS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.27B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)12.42M
Price to Earnings (P/E)104.1
Beta (1Y)1.60
Revenue Growth-95.06%
EPS Growth1.92%
CountryUS
Employees1,371
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength95
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.38
Shares Outstanding202,624,950
10 Day Avg. Volume8,854,684
30 Day Avg. Volume12,419,976
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue136.80
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit339.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-50.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$102.00Price Target Upside6.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
Nebius Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNebius Group (NBIS) is a dynamic technology company that operates in the cloud computing and digital infrastructure sectors. The company offers a range of cloud-based solutions, including infrastructure as a service (IaaS), platform as a service (PaaS), and various other cloud services designed to support businesses in scaling their operations and improving efficiency. Nebius Group is known for its innovation and commitment to providing reliable, scalable, and secure cloud solutions to enterprises across various industries.
How the Company Makes MoneyNebius Group makes money through a subscription-based revenue model, where businesses pay for access to its cloud computing services. Key revenue streams include fees for cloud storage, computing power, and additional services such as data analytics and machine learning tools. The company also generates income from consulting services and technical support offered to its clients. Significant partnerships with technology providers and enterprise clients contribute to its earnings by expanding its market reach and enhancing its service offerings. Through these diverse revenue streams, Nebius Group capitalizes on the growing demand for cloud solutions in the digital age.
Nebius Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented strong growth in revenue and AI cloud infrastructure, positive EBITDA for the core business, and an increase in ARR guidance, indicating robust business momentum. However, limitations due to oversold resources, projected negative full-year EBITDA, dependency on future capacity for revenue, and potential tariff impacts were noted as challenges.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Revenue Growth
Nebius Group's revenue increased by 625% year-over-year and 106% quarter-over-quarter, reaching $105.1 million.
AI Cloud Infrastructure Expansion
AI cloud infrastructure revenue increased more than 9x year-over-year due to strong customer demand and high platform utilization.
Positive EBITDA for Core Business
The company achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in its core AI infrastructure business ahead of expectations.
Increased ARR Guidance
Annualized run rate revenue guidance was raised from $750 million to $1 billion to $900 million to $1.1 billion.
Expansion of Data Center Capacity
Nebius expects to secure 220 megawatts of connected power by the end of the year, with plans to secure more than 1 gigawatt by the end of 2026.
Strong Customer Base Expansion
The company added large global technology customers such as Cloudflare, Prosus, and Shopify, along with AI tech startups like HeyGen and Photoroom.
Strategic Partnerships and AI Ecosystem Growth
Nebius expanded partnerships with Nvidia and other AI partners, enhancing its AI cloud platform offerings.
Negative Updates
Oversold Previous Generation Hoppers
Growth was limited due to being oversold on previous generation hoppers, awaiting new GPU generation.
Negative Full Year Adjusted EBITDA
Despite positive adjusted EBITDA for the core business, the full year is projected to remain negative at the group level.
Dependency on Future Capacity for Revenue
Significant portion of increased ARR is dependent on future GPU capacity coming online, affecting immediate revenue projections.
Potential Impact of Tariffs
Uncertainty around U.S. tariffs could affect business and margins, though specifics are currently unclear.
Company Guidance
During Nebius Group's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided robust guidance reflecting strong performance and future growth expectations. The company reported a $105.1 million revenue, marking a 625% year-over-year and 106% quarter-over-quarter increase. Nebius has raised its annualized run rate revenue guidance from $750 million-$1 billion to $900 million-$1.1 billion, attributing this to strong customer demand and capacity expansion. The company plans to secure 220 megawatts of connected power by year-end and over 1 gigawatt by the end of 2026 to capture industry growth. Nebius also achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for its core business ahead of expectations and anticipates being EBITDA positive at the group level by year-end. The call highlighted strategic partnerships with companies like Cloudflare and Shopify and emphasized future opportunities in AI compute. With over $4 billion raised in capital and a solid balance sheet, Nebius is well-positioned to lead in AI cloud infrastructure, supported by a $2 billion CapEx investment planned for 2025.Nebius Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Nebius Group faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and profitability, incomplete balance sheet data, and weak cash flow management. While there were periods of strong revenue growth and profitability, the recent downturn raises concerns about the company's financial health and sustainability.Income Statement
The company has experienced significant volatility in its financial performance. The revenue has drastically declined from 2023 to 2024, leading to a negative EBIT and EBITDA. The net income has also turned negative, indicating financial distress. However, the gross profit margin remains relatively strong, suggesting some operational efficiency.40
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet data for 2024 is incomplete, making it challenging to assess current financial stability. Historically, the company had a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio and a healthy equity base. However, the increase in net debt in previous years suggests rising leverage, which could pose risks if profitability continues to decline.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement highlights concerns, especially with zero operating cash flow and free cash flow in 2024. Previously, the company had positive operating cash flows, but current data suggests cash management issues. The absence of capital expenditure figures further complicates the analysis.30
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 116.96M | 20.90M | 13.50M | 4.78B | 2.93B |
| Gross Profit | 43.90M | -11.00M | -14.90M | 2.44B | 1.78B |
| EBITDA | -352.78M | -290.70M | -128.50M | 512.37M | 930.84M |
| Net Income | -638.47M | 241.30M | 745.60M | -196.71M | 332.14M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 389.37B | 8.76B | 8.28B | 6.91B | 6.93B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 268.78B | 121.20M | 1.13B | 1.44B | 3.20B |
| Total Debt | 5.45B | 584.76M | 1.39B | 1.89B | 1.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 32.36B | 5.46B | 3.74B | 3.25B | 2.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 357.02B | 3.29B | 4.25B | 3.46B | 4.37B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -562.10M | 746.40M | ― | ― | 108.23M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 245.60M | 829.80M | 559.57M | 124.62M | 438.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 311.60M | -1.92B | ― | 294.94M | ― |
| Financing Cash Flow | 825.50M | 472.75M | ― | ― | 1.88B |
Nebius Group Technical Analysis
Positive
95.72
Price Trends
59.84
Positive
48.33
Positive
39.24
Positive
Market Momentum
3.98
Negative
78.01
Negative
40.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 95.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 70.04, above the 50-day MA of 59.84, and above the 200-day MA of 39.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 78.01 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBIS.
Nebius Group Risk Analysis
Nebius Group disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nebius Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nebius Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $25.80B | 13.05 | 48.08% | ― | 17.00% | 901.05% | |
73 Outperform | $21.61B | ― | -1.34% | ― | 15.31% | 56.19% | |
68 Neutral | $9.18B | 18.80 | -865.98% | 0.99% | -0.60% | -11.05% | |
64 Neutral | $16.74B | 878.49 | 0.24% | ― | 11.56% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $46.60B | 4.15 | -11.40% | 4.15% | 1.85% | -42.71% | |
60 Neutral | $15.27B | 104.15 | 4.95% | ― | -95.06% | 1.92% | |
59 Neutral | $12.20B | ― | -26.42% | ― | 13.18% | 54.39% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
NBIS
Nebius Group
95.72
76.78
405.39%
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TWLO
Twilio
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SNAP
Snap
7.05
-1.95
-21.67%
PINS
Pinterest
36.50
7.28
24.91%
MTCH
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38.21
3.49
10.05%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.