Nebius Group (NBIS)
NASDAQ:NBIS
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Nebius Group (NBIS) AI Stock Analysis

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NBIS

Nebius Group

(NASDAQ:NBIS)

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Neutral 50 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$94.00
▼(-0.38% Downside)
Nebius Group's overall stock score is driven by significant financial challenges and bearish technical indicators. Despite strong growth prospects highlighted in the earnings call, the company's high P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield suggest overvaluation. The potential for shareholder dilution and increased capital expenditures add to the risk profile.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for Nebius's services, enhancing its market position and supporting long-term business expansion.
Major Long-term Deals
These significant deals with industry giants like Meta and Microsoft provide stable, long-term revenue streams and validate Nebius's competitive edge in AI infrastructure.
Product Expansion
Launching new products like Ether and Nebius Talking Factory expands the addressable market, driving future growth and enhancing competitive positioning.
Negative Factors
Rising Capital Expenditures
Increased capital expenditures may strain financial resources, impacting cash flow and potentially delaying profitability improvements.
Shareholder Dilution
Potential shareholder dilution from new equity issuance could reduce existing shareholders' value, impacting investor sentiment and stock performance.
Capacity Constraints
Capacity constraints could hinder Nebius's ability to meet growing demand, limiting revenue potential and slowing market share gains.

Nebius Group (NBIS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Nebius Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNebius Group N.V., operates as a technology company that engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry. Its businesses include Nebius, an AI-centric cloud platform built for intensive AI workloads. Nebius builds full-stack infrastructure for AI, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud platforms, and tools and services for developers. The company's businesses also comprise Toloka AI, a data partner for various stages of generative AI development; TripleTen, an edtech player re-skilling people for careers in tech; and Avride, which develops autonomous driving technology for self-driving cars and delivery robots. The company was formerly known as Yandex N.V. and changed its name to Nebius Group N.V. in August 2024. Nebius Group N.V. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands with R&D hubs across Europe, North America and Israel.
How the Company Makes MoneyNebius Group generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the company earns money by offering subscription-based cloud services, which include infrastructure as a service (IaaS) and platform as a service (PaaS) solutions. This model allows clients to pay for resources based on usage, providing a steady income stream. Additionally, Nebius Group provides consulting and implementation services, assisting businesses in integrating their cloud solutions and optimizing their data analytics capabilities. The company also partners with other technology firms to enhance its service offerings, which can lead to revenue-sharing agreements and collaborative projects. Furthermore, Nebius Group may engage in product licensing, where it licenses its proprietary software to other businesses, creating another significant revenue channel.

Nebius Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 11, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Nebius Group's earnings call reflected a strong growth trajectory with record revenue increases and major deals with Meta and Microsoft. However, capacity constraints pose challenges, and significant capital expenditures and potential shareholder dilution are notable concerns. The company is making strategic investments in capacity and product development to capitalize on strong demand.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth
Q3 group revenue reached $146 million, marking an increase of nearly 355% year over year and 39% quarter over quarter. The core infrastructure business grew 400% year over year and 40% sequentially.
Major Long-term Deals
Secured a $3 billion deal with Meta and a $17.4 billion to $19.4 billion deal with Microsoft, indicating strong demand for capacity.
Expansion of Capacity Plans
Contracted capacity is expected to grow to 2.5 gigawatts by 2026, up from one gigawatt, with plans for 800 megawatts to one gigawatt of power connected to data centers by the end of 2026.
Launch of New AI Cloud Products
Released Ether, an enterprise-ready cloud platform version 3.0, and Nebius Talking Factory, an inference platform, to expand the addressable market.
Strong Demand Environment
Pipeline generation expanded 70% quarter on quarter, generating $4 billion in pipeline despite capacity constraints.
Negative Updates
Limited Capacity
Capacity constraints remain a significant bottleneck, limiting revenue growth and the ability to meet overwhelming demand.
Dilution Concerns
Plans to put an at-the-market equity program in place for up to 25 million Class A shares, potentially leading to shareholder dilution.
Increased CapEx Guidance
CapEx guidance raised significantly from approximately $2 billion to circa $5 billion, reflecting higher spending to secure infrastructure.
Adjusted EBITDA Concerns
Adjusted EBITDA margin is positive for the core infrastructure business but remains negative at the group level for the full year.
Company Guidance
During the Nebius Group's third-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided an optimistic outlook with several key metrics. They reported a Q3 group revenue of $146 million, marking a 355% increase year-over-year and a 39% quarter-over-quarter growth. The company's core infrastructure business, accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue, grew by 400% year-over-year and 40% sequentially. They signed significant deals, including a $3 billion contract with Meta and a deal with Microsoft valued between $17.4 billion and $19.4 billion. Nebius plans to increase its contracted capacity to 2.5 gigawatts by 2026, up from the previously discussed 1 gigawatt. The company aims for an annualized run rate revenue (ARR) of $7 to $9 billion by the end of 2026 and has tightened its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to between $500 million and $550 million. Capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to rise from approximately $2 billion to around $5 billion to support these growth plans.

Nebius Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Nebius Group faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and profitability, incomplete balance sheet data, and weak cash flow management. While there were periods of strong revenue growth and profitability, the recent downturn raises concerns about the company's financial health and sustainability.
Income Statement
40
Negative
The company has experienced significant volatility in its financial performance. The revenue has drastically declined from 2023 to 2024, leading to a negative EBIT and EBITDA. The net income has also turned negative, indicating financial distress. However, the gross profit margin remains relatively strong, suggesting some operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet data for 2024 is incomplete, making it challenging to assess current financial stability. Historically, the company had a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio and a healthy equity base. However, the increase in net debt in previous years suggests rising leverage, which could pose risks if profitability continues to decline.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
The cash flow statement highlights concerns, especially with zero operating cash flow and free cash flow in 2024. Previously, the company had positive operating cash flows, but current data suggests cash management issues. The absence of capital expenditure figures further complicates the analysis.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue344.40M117.50M20.90M13.50M4.76B2.95B
Gross Profit214.40M44.10M-11.00M-14.90M2.43B1.79B
EBITDA-352.93M-363.40M-298.20M-130.50M109.87M424.50M
Net Income218.00M-641.40M241.30M745.60M-196.01M333.49M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.10B3.55B8.76B8.28B6.91B6.93B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.79B2.45B121.20M1.13B1.44B3.20B
Total Debt4.51B49.70M584.76M1.39B1.89B1.46B
Total Liabilities5.29B294.90M5.46B3.74B3.25B2.25B
Stockholders Equity4.81B3.25B3.29B4.25B3.46B4.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-1.04B-562.10M746.40M682.40M-473.75M108.23M
Operating Cash Flow-80.60M245.60M829.80M697.00M124.62M438.20M
Investing Cash Flow-952.00M311.60M-1.21B-403.10M294.94M-1.61B
Financing Cash Flow4.20B825.50M375.60M-100.30M-1.14B1.88B

Nebius Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price94.36
Price Trends
50DMA
109.61
Negative
100DMA
84.01
Positive
200DMA
58.43
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.38
Positive
RSI
35.30
Neutral
STOCH
7.04
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 94.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 112.00, below the 50-day MA of 109.61, and above the 200-day MA of 58.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.04 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NBIS.

Nebius Group Risk Analysis

Nebius Group disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nebius Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nebius Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$18.46B9.4751.49%16.79%819.94%
71
Outperform
$19.80B313.360.83%12.84%
68
Neutral
$14.94B-22.38%11.75%49.19%
63
Neutral
$7.79B15.351.15%-0.46%-2.75%
60
Neutral
$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
59
Neutral
$17.57B-0.66%15.17%75.90%
50
Neutral
$23.50B102.933.45%-87.55%336.73%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NBIS
Nebius Group
88.63
70.54
389.94%
Z
Zillow Group Class C
70.37
-3.94
-5.30%
TWLO
Twilio
123.99
26.86
27.65%
SNAP
Snap
8.58
-2.18
-20.26%
PINS
Pinterest
26.77
-2.60
-8.85%
MTCH
Match Group
32.54
2.00
6.55%

Nebius Group Corporate Events

Nebius Group Secures Major Contracts with Microsoft and Meta Amid Financial Growth
Nov 13, 2025

Nebius Group N.V. announced significant developments in its operations, including multi-billion dollar agreements with Microsoft and Meta to provide dedicated capacity from its new data center in Vineland, New Jersey, starting later this year. These contracts highlight Nebius’ capability to support large-scale enterprises and workloads, potentially enhancing its industry positioning. Despite a net loss of $119.6 million in Q3 2025, the company reported a net income of $278.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to gains from the revaluation of its investment in ClickHouse. The financial results reflect the ongoing expansion of Nebius’ core infrastructure business, with increased operating costs and interest expenses.

Nebius Group Announces Major Equity Distribution Agreement
Nov 12, 2025

On November 12, 2025, Nebius Group N.V. announced an Equity Distribution Agreement with major financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, and Citigroup Global Markets. This agreement allows Nebius to issue and sell up to 25,000,000 Class A Ordinary Shares, enhancing its capital structure and potentially impacting its market positioning by increasing its financial flexibility.

Nebius Group Secures $2.9 Billion GPU Services Deal with Meta
Nov 12, 2025

On November 1, 2025, Nebius, Inc., a subsidiary of Nebius Group N.V., entered into a significant commercial agreement with Meta Platforms, Inc. to provide GPU infrastructure services over a five-year period. The agreement, valued at approximately $2.9 billion, involves deploying GPU services in two phases scheduled for December 2025 and February 2026. This collaboration is expected to enhance Nebius’s market position and financial stability, as the cash flow from the deal will support capital expenditures. The agreement includes standard provisions such as service level commitments and termination rights, ensuring both parties are protected.

Nebius Group Secures $3 Billion AI Infrastructure Deal with Meta
Nov 12, 2025

On November 11, 2025, Nebius Group N.V. announced its unaudited financial results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, revealing a substantial increase in revenues by 355% compared to the previous year. Despite this growth, the company reported significant losses, including a net loss from continuing operations of $119.6 million. Additionally, Nebius secured a $3 billion agreement with Meta to provide AI infrastructure over the next five years, highlighting its strategic positioning in the industry. The company also plans to initiate an at-the-market equity program to support future growth, indicating a focus on capital efficiency and expansion.

Avride Secures $375 Million Investment from Uber and Nebius
Oct 22, 2025

On October 22, 2025, Avride, a subsidiary of Nebius Group and a leader in autonomous driving technologies, announced securing up to $375 million in strategic investments and commitments from Uber and Nebius. This funding is set to accelerate Avride’s growth in autonomous vehicle technology, expand its fleet, and support AI-driven product development. The investment builds on Avride’s existing partnership with Uber, with plans to launch a robotaxi service in Dallas by the end of 2025. This development positions Avride to capitalize on significant market opportunities in autonomous transportation, enhancing its industry presence and offering stakeholders promising growth prospects.

Nebius Group Expands Capital with Additional Class A Share Offering
Sep 22, 2025

On September 22, 2025, Nebius Group announced that underwriters exercised their option to purchase an additional 1,621,621 Class A shares in its public offering, priced at $92.50 per share. This move increased the company’s gross proceeds from the Class A offering to approximately $1.15 billion, contributing to a total of $4.3 billion from recent offerings, including convertible notes. This financial maneuver is expected to enhance Nebius Group’s market position and support its growth in the AI infrastructure sector.

Nebius Group Secures $4.2 Billion in Public and Private Offerings
Sep 15, 2025

On September 15, 2025, Nebius Group announced the completion of its public offering of Class A ordinary shares and a concurrent private offering of convertible senior notes, generating approximately $4.2 billion in gross proceeds. The company plans to use these funds to finance its growth, including expanding its data center footprint and acquiring additional compute power, as part of its strategy to support its AI infrastructure agreement with Microsoft. This move strengthens Nebius Group’s position in the AI industry and provides significant capital for future expansion.

Nebius Group Announces Major Financial Offerings to Boost Growth
Sep 12, 2025

On September 10, 2025, Nebius Group N.V. announced the pricing of two significant financial offerings: a $2.75 billion upsized private offering of convertible senior notes and a $1 billion public offering of Class A ordinary shares. These strategic moves are expected to enhance the company’s capital structure and provide additional resources for future growth, potentially impacting its market positioning and offering new opportunities for investors.

Nebius Group Reports Major Turnaround with 545% Revenue Surge
Sep 10, 2025

Nebius Group reported a significant financial turnaround in the first half of 2025, achieving a net income of $398.2 million, compared to a net loss of $185.5 million in the same period of 2024. This improvement was largely driven by a substantial gain from the revaluation of its investment in ClickHouse. The company’s revenue surged by 545% to $156 million, primarily due to the growth of its core AI infrastructure business, Nebius, and increased student enrollment in its edtech platform, TripleTen.

Nebius Group Secures Major AI Infrastructure Deal with Microsoft
Sep 8, 2025

On September 8, 2025, Nebius Group announced a significant commercial agreement with Microsoft to provide dedicated GPU infrastructure capacity from its new data center in Vineland, New Jersey, over a five-year period. The deal, valued at up to $19.4 billion, is expected to accelerate Nebius’s AI cloud business growth in 2026 and beyond, with financing for capital expenditure coming from the agreement’s cash flow and potential debt issuance. This strategic partnership underscores Nebius’s position in the AI industry and its commitment to expanding its market presence.

Nebius Group Announces AGM Results and Strategic Decisions
Aug 22, 2025

On August 21, 2025, Nebius Group N.V. held its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, where all proposed resolutions were adopted. Key decisions included the re-appointment of several directors, amendments to the Articles of Association, and authorization for share repurchases and issuance. These outcomes reinforce the company’s strategic direction and governance structure, potentially impacting shareholder value and market positioning.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 13, 2025