Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)
NASDAQ:NBIS
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Nebius Group
(NASDAQ:NBIS)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$109.00
▲(2.86% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/18/26
The score is held back primarily by mixed financial quality—ongoing operating losses, higher leverage, and deeply negative free cash flow—despite strong top-line momentum. Technicals are supportive with an uptrend and positive momentum, but valuation is stretched (very high P/E). Earnings call tone was positive on demand and targets, tempered by sizeable CapEx and execution/timing risk.
Positive Factors
Rapid revenue and ARR expansion
Nebius demonstrated durable demand with ARR of $1.2B and Q4 revenue up 547% YoY, driven by longer contract durations. Higher ARR and extended contracts improve revenue visibility, support predictable usage-based cash flows, and provide a scalable base for margin expansion as capacity utilization rises.
Negative Factors
Very large 2026 CapEx requirement
Planned $16–20B of 2026 investment is structural and capital‑intensive. Delivering that scale requires sustained supply‑chain performance, project execution across many sites, and additional financing options; failure or delays would compress margins, postpone revenue recognition, and amplify refinancing or dilution needs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rapid revenue and ARR expansion
Nebius demonstrated durable demand with ARR of $1.2B and Q4 revenue up 547% YoY, driven by longer contract durations. Higher ARR and extended contracts improve revenue visibility, support predictable usage-based cash flows, and provide a scalable base for margin expansion as capacity utilization rises.
Read all positive factors
Nebius Group (NBIS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$25.38B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)16.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.01
Revenue Growth-87.55%
EPS Growth336.73%
CountryUS
Employees1,371
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.68
Shares Outstanding218,158,550
10 Day Avg. Volume22,511,629
30 Day Avg. Volume16,323,040
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.99
Price to Book (P/B)4.59
Price to Sales (P/S)39.98
P/FCF Ratio-5.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue47.56
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit69.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-91.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$166.11Price Target Upside56.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.28B
Nebius Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nebius Group N.V., operates as a technology company that engages in building full-stack infrastructure to service the global AI industry. Its businesses include Nebius, an AI-centric cloud platform built for intensive AI workloads. Nebius builds f...
How the Company Makes Money
Nebius Group makes money primarily by selling cloud infrastructure and related services. The core revenue model is usage-based (and/or contract-based) cloud consumption, where customers pay for access to compute resources—particularly GPU instance...
Nebius Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong positive momentum driven by outsized revenue growth, an ARR beat, sold-out capacity, robust pricing, accelerating pipeline (> $4B), meaningful cash generation ($834M operating cash flow in Q4) and decisive capacity and product expansion (nine new data centers, Token Factory, Tavily acquisition). These positives are tempered by substantial 2026 CapEx needs ($16B–$20B), concentrated H2 revenue timing risk, continued near-term EBIT losses, and execution/supply-chain risks tied to rapid buildout. On balance, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights given the combination of demand strength, contract wins, cash position, and supply commitments, but achievement of guidance will depend on capital execution and deployment timing.Positive Updates
Explosive Top-Line Growth
Q4 group revenue of $228,000,000, up 547% year-over-year and 56% quarter-over-quarter; core AI cloud revenue grew 830% YoY and 63% QoQ.
Negative Updates
Large and Concentrated CapEx Requirement
Ambitious 2026 CapEx guidance of $16,000,000,000–$20,000,000,000 presents material funding and execution risk despite ~60% coverage; company plans to use debt/asset-backed financing and potentially equity which could affect cost of capital or dilution.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Explosive Top-Line Growth
Q4 group revenue of $228,000,000, up 547% year-over-year and 56% quarter-over-quarter; core AI cloud revenue grew 830% YoY and 63% QoQ.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated aggressive 2026 guidance and numerous operational targets: an annualized run-rate ARR goal of $7–9 billion by 2026 and full‑year 2026 revenue of $3.0–3.4 billion, with group adjusted EBITDA margin of ~40% (EBIT expected to remain negative in 2026; medium‑term EBIT target 20–30%); planned CapEx of $16–20 billion for 2026 (roughly 60% already funded via cash, commitments and expected operating cash flow), $3.0 billion of cash on hand today and $834 million of operating cash flow generated in Q4; Q4 revenue was $228 million (+547% YoY, +56% QoQ) and core AI cloud ARR was $1.2 billion at year‑end (core revenue +830% YoY, +63% QoQ; core adj. EBITDA margin expanded 19%→24% Q3→Q4 while group adj. EBITDA was ~7% in Q4); capacity and supply targets include >2 GW of contracted power today and a plan to exceed 3 GW by year‑end with 0.8–1.0 GW of available (connected) capacity, Meta tranches fully live (recognizing ~12 and ~11 months of revenue) and Microsoft tranches ramping through 2026 (majority in H2), average new contract duration up 50%, pipeline >$4 billion in Q1, GPUs (including Hoppers) sold out with ASPs up >50%, and a shift in depreciation from 4 to 5 years.Nebius Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 529.80M | 117.50M | 20.90M | 13.50M | 4.76B |
| Gross Profit | 363.60M | 44.10M | -11.00M | -14.90M | 2.43B |
| EBITDA | -192.20M | -363.40M | -298.20M | -130.50M | 109.87M |
| Net Income | 101.70M | -641.40M | 241.30M | 745.60M | -196.01M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.45B | 3.55B | 8.76B | 8.28B | 6.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.68B | 2.45B | 121.20M | 1.13B | 1.44B |
| Total Debt | 4.89B | 49.70M | 584.76M | 1.39B | 1.89B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.84B | 294.90M | 5.46B | 3.74B | 3.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.61B | 3.25B | 3.29B | 4.25B | 3.46B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3.68B | -562.10M | 746.40M | 682.40M | -473.75M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 384.80M | 245.60M | 829.80M | 697.00M | 124.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.23B | 311.60M | -1.21B | -403.10M | 294.94M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.13B | 825.50M | 375.60M | -100.30M | -1.14B |
Nebius Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
105.97
Price Trends
100.07
Positive
97.41
Positive
88.09
Positive
Market Momentum
3.47
Positive
45.85
Neutral
8.92
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBIS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 105.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.99, above the 50-day MA of 100.07, and above the 200-day MA of 88.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NBIS.
Nebius Group Risk Analysis
Nebius Group disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nebius Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nebius Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $18.18B | 643.16 | 0.43% | ― | 12.84% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $7.49B | 42.89 | -214.15% | ― | 14.20% | 204.86% | |
63 Neutral | $401.67B | 27.89 | 57.35% | 1.00% | 11.08% | 29.56% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $52.82B | -48.84 | -60.27% | ― | 28.48% | -19.12% | |
56 Neutral | $25.38B | -20.22 | 2.48% | ― | -87.55% | 336.73% | |
49 Neutral | $39.33B | -26.69 | -33.10% | ― | 235.40% | 19.90% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
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Nebius Group Corporate Events
Nebius Group Raises $4.3 Billion in Convertible Notes to Accelerate AI Infrastructure Expansion
Mar 20, 2026
Nebius Group, the Amsterdam-based Nasdaq-listed AI infrastructure and cloud company, is focused on delivering a full‑stack AI platform for developers and enterprises globally, supporting workloads from training to deployment. With a rapidly ...
Nebius Group Plans $3.75 Billion Convertible Note Offering to Fund AI Cloud Expansion
Mar 17, 2026
On March 17, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. announced a proposed private offering of $3.75 billion in convertible senior notes, split between $2.0 billion notes due 2031 and $1.75 billion notes due 2033, to be sold to qualified institutional buyers under...
Nebius Seals $27 Billion AI Infrastructure Deal With Meta to Power Long-Term Cloud Growth
Mar 16, 2026
On March 16, 2026, Nebius Group announced that its U.S. subsidiary Nebius, Inc. signed a five‑year AI infrastructure supply agreement with Meta Platforms valued at up to approximately $27 billion, marking one of the first large‑scale d...
Nebius Secures $2 Billion NVIDIA Investment and Strategic AI Cloud Partnership
Mar 11, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. announced a $2 billion private placement with NVIDIA Corporation via a pre-funded warrant for 21,065,936 Class A shares, issued in an exempt transaction under U.S. securities laws. Nebius plans to use the proce...
Nebius Group Posts Soaring 2025 AI Cloud Revenues Amid Heavy Infrastructure Spend
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, Nebius Group reported unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighting explosive top‑line growth but persistent losses. Quarterly revenue surged to $227.7 million fr...
Nebius Group Moves to Replace Reanda With Deloitte as Auditor After Internal Control Concerns
Feb 12, 2026
Nebius Group N.V. announced on February 12, 2026, that its board will recommend shareholders approve the appointment of Deloitte Touche LLP as its independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. The mov...
Nebius to Acquire Agentic Search Leader Tavily to Strengthen AI Cloud Platform
Feb 10, 2026
On February 9, 2026, Nebius Group N.V. agreed to acquire AlphaAI Technologies Inc., which operates as Tavily, via a merger that will make Tavily a wholly owned subsidiary with operations in Israel and the UAE. The cash-upfront deal, whose value wa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.