Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS (TKGBY)
OTHER OTC:TKGBY
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Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS
(OTC:TKGBY)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$3.00
â–¼(-12.28% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/09/26
The score is driven mainly by good (but somewhat volatile) financial performance, supported by constructive technicals and an attractive valuation. Earnings-call guidance reinforces the outlook, while higher expenses, some asset-quality pressure, and regulatory constraints temper the overall rating.
Positive Factors
Deposit franchise & liquidity
A deep retail deposit base and high share of demand deposits provide durable, low-cost funding that supports sustainable loan growth and margin resilience. This funding mix reduces rollover and market funding risk, enabling the bank to finance TL lending expansion without excessive wholesale reliance.
Negative Factors
Sharp OpEx growth
Rapid, front‑loaded cost increases strain efficiency and raise the breakeven for sustainable profitability. If fee growth or margin expansion slows, elevated OpEx could compress long‑run margins and make ROE sensitive to slower revenue realization or higher normalized credit costs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Deposit franchise & liquidity
A deep retail deposit base and high share of demand deposits provide durable, low-cost funding that supports sustainable loan growth and margin resilience. This funding mix reduces rollover and market funding risk, enabling the bank to finance TL lending expansion without excessive wholesale reliance.
Read all positive factors
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS (TKGBY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.16B
Dividend Yield3.58%
Average Volume (3M)2.46K
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.1
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth29.35%
EPS Growth-6.44%
CountryUS
Employees22,538
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.14
Shares Outstanding4,200,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,509
30 Day Avg. Volume2,455
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)1.26
Price to Sales (P/S)0.57
P/FCF Ratio3.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap91.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.91
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.33B
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. provides various banking products and services. It offers current, savings, time and term deposit, ELMA, structured deposit, and gold accounts; and general purpose, auto, revolving, house, discount, SME project, instal...
How the Company Makes Money
Garanti BBVA primarily makes money through (1) net interest income and (2) non-interest (fee and commission) income, supplemented by trading/treasury results and other operating income.
1) Net interest income (core banking spread): The bank colle...
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive picture: strong profitability, robust loan and deposit growth, improving NIM trends, solid capital and liquidity buffers, and standout fee momentum. Key risks include elevated and front-loaded operating expenses, some deterioration in asset-quality metrics concentrated in retail/credit card portfolios, one-off provisioning/tax dynamics that depress reported quarterly results, and regulatory/macroprudential constraints that could limit near-term growth or fee normalization. Management presented conservative guidance and emphasized buffers and active funding management to mitigate risks.Positive Updates
Strong Profitability and ROE
Cumulative net income of TRY 111 billion in 2025, up 21% year-on-year, delivering a 29% ROE for the year (approximately 30% ROE excluding a tax-regulation one-off impact). Management emphasized continued ROE above the sector average.
Negative Updates
Sharp Increase in Operating Expenses
OpEx base rose 67% in 2025, outpacing the sector and inflation. Management attributes this to front-loaded customer acquisition costs and non-HR investments; guidance implies OpEx growth will exceed average inflation in 2026 as well.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Profitability and ROE
Cumulative net income of TRY 111 billion in 2025, up 21% year-on-year, delivering a 29% ROE for the year (approximately 30% ROE excluding a tax-regulation one-off impact). Management emphasized continued ROE above the sector average.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided on a conservative macro base of year‑end 2026 inflation ~25% and a policy rate of ~32%, and set balance‑sheet and P&L targets including TL loan growth of 30–35% (FX loans mid‑single digits), net interest margin expansion of ~75bps (current NIM 5.4%; every 100bps policy move ≈15bps NIM effect), net cost of risk normalizing to 2.0–2.5%, fee growth of 30–35% with ~80–85% of OpEx covered by fees (OpEx expected to grow above average inflation), and a goal of mid‑single‑digit positive real ROE in 2026. Key capital/liquidity metrics: consolidated CET1 13.1%, CAR 17.5%, TRY 179bn excess capital; funding/deposit profile: customer deposits >TRY3.0tn (69% of assets), TL deposits market share 21%, demand deposits 41%; loans and asset quality: TL loans TRY1.7tn (2025 growth 45%), performing loans 58% of assets, NPL ratio 3.1%, Stage‑2 coverage 9% (FX Stage‑2 16%); wholesale: total external debt $9.8bn ($3.5bn short‑term) and a $7.1bn FX liquidity buffer; recent two‑year subordinated issuance $2.45bn.Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 988.39B | 287.17B | 346.52B | 177.72B | 85.59B |
| Gross Profit | 410.34B | 287.17B | 199.32B | 133.01B | 61.46B |
| EBITDA | 160.63B | 0.00 | 109.31B | 78.23B | 19.35B |
| Net Income | 109.82B | 91.24B | 86.37B | 58.29B | 13.47B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.55T | 3.00T | 2.20T | 1.30T | 850.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 31.82B | 591.84B | 474.34B | 200.82B | 182.89B |
| Total Debt | 431.79B | 223.97B | 150.11B | 104.47B | 97.20B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.10T | 2.67T | 1.96T | 1.15T | 770.17B |
| Stockholders Equity | 444.07B | 329.79B | 244.70B | 152.64B | 79.98B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 184.76B | -155.25B | 186.17B | 43.63B | 31.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 196.04B | -145.82B | 191.28B | 45.76B | 32.31B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -63.06B | -46.85B | -81.76B | -55.25B | -12.41B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 222.25B | 95.27B | 10.45B | 25.67B | 29.34B |
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Technical Analysis
Negative
3.42
Price Trends
3.34
Negative
3.31
Negative
3.33
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.14
Positive
36.44
Neutral
13.83
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TKGBY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.02, above the 50-day MA of 3.34, and above the 200-day MA of 3.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.83 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TKGBY.
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $27.14B | 11.79 | 19.28% | 4.82% | 8.72% | 27.70% | |
72 Outperform | $12.16B | 5.09 | 27.96% | 3.58% | 29.35% | -6.44% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $18.86B | 14.56 | 21.25% | 5.56% | -11.64% | -8.75% | |
65 Neutral | $15.77B | 6.51 | 9.31% | 3.71% | -2.90% | 16.10% | |
57 Neutral | $22.69B | 9.97 | 11.15% | 4.98% | 1.13% | -11.93% | |
56 Neutral | $15.94B | 12.58 | 21.37% | 4.29% | 12.43% | 56.30% |
* Financial Sector Average
TKGBY
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS
2.90
-0.11
-3.60%
BCH
Banco De Chile
37.24
11.04
42.13%
BSBR
Banco Santander Brasil
6.06
1.40
29.93%
BSAC
Banco Santander Chile
33.68
11.50
51.85%
BAP
Credicorp
341.26
161.96
90.33%
WF
Woori Finance Holdings Co
67.10
33.83
101.68%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.