Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS (TKGBY) AI Stock Analysis

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Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS

(OTC:TKGBY)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:―

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS shows a solid overall performance driven by strong financial results and strategic market gains. The bank's stable financial foundation and confident earnings outlook are positive factors, though cash flow challenges and technical analysis indicators suggest near-term caution. The stock's low valuation provides potential for upside if macroeconomic conditions stabilize.

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS (TKGBY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$15.22B

Dividend Yield3.35%

Average Volume (3M)170.00

Price to Earnings (P/E)5.5

Beta (1Y)0.38

Revenue Growth43.01%

EPS Growth-15.38%

CountryUS

Employees22,538

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength73

IndustryBanks - Regional

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.16

Shares Outstanding4,200,000,000

10 Day Avg. Volume34

30 Day Avg. Volume170

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.87

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.03

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.04

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.20

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTurkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. provides various banking products and services. It offers current, savings, time and term deposit, ELMA, structured deposit, and gold accounts; and general purpose, auto, revolving, house, discount, SME project, installment, working capital, foreign currency, mortgage, and other loans, as well as spot TL and foreign currency, letters of guarantee and reference, and overdraft accounts. The company also provides various cards; and auto, liability, health, unemployment, life, house, individual accident, automobile, business premises, fire, freight, engineering, accident, loan, and agriculture insurance products, as well as pension products. In addition, it offers mutual funds, T-bills/government bonds, Eurobonds, repos, equities, dual currency deposit transactions, Turkish derivatives exchange, e-trader, forward transactions, and taxation services; cash management services; and SME specific products, such as support packages, foreign trade financing and legislation, and related services. Further, the company provides leasing, fleet management, factoring, investment and private banking, payment, safety box, and Internet and mobile/SMS banking services. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 872 branches and 5,401 ATMs. Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey. As of May 18, 2022, Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. operates as a subsidiary of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.

How the Company Makes MoneyTurkiye Garanti Bankasi AS generates revenue through a diverse array of financial services and products. Its primary revenue streams include interest income from loans and advances to customers, fees and commissions from banking services such as credit cards and asset management, and income from trading activities in financial markets. The bank also earns through its insurance operations and wealth management services. Significant partnerships with international financial institutions and a strong digital banking presence contribute to its earnings by expanding its customer base and operational efficiency.

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Garanti BBVA's first quarter results indicate strong financial performance with significant gains in net income, core banking income, and market share. However, challenges such as revised higher inflation estimates, a worsening current account deficit, and potential risks in cost of risk and NIM expansion present areas of concern.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Net Income and ROE

Garanti BBVA reported a net income of TRY 25.4 billion for the first quarter, representing a 13% year-over-year growth with a robust return on equity of 30.5%.

Surge in Core Banking Income

Core net interest income surged by 68% quarter-on-quarter due to declining funding costs and resilient loan yields, highlighting the sustainable nature of the bank's profitability.

Market Share Gains in Deposits

The bank gained 1.1% market share in TL deposits among private banks, reaching a 22% market share, driven largely by retail deposits.

Resilient Asset Quality

The NPL ratio rose slightly to 2.6%, with total coverage levels remaining healthy at 3.6% compared to the NPL ratio.

Robust Digital Penetration

The number of digital customers reached 17 billion, reinforcing the fee base and driving growth in customer acquisition and penetration.

Negative Updates

Revised Inflation Estimate

The year-end inflation estimate was revised upwards from 29% to 31%, acknowledging upside risks from uncertainty in food prices.

Current Account Deficit Concerns

The current account deficit to GDP is expected to worsen slightly to 1.5% in 2025 due to deterioration in the core trade deficit and increasing net gold imports.

Potential Risk in Cost of Risk Guidance

Guidance for a higher cost of risk due to increasing NPL inflows from unsecured loans and normalizing large ticket collections, with a first-quarter net cost of risk at 1.4%.

Challenges in Margin Expansion

Potential downside risk in NIM expansion with adjustments in lending yields due to increased funding costs and volatility in interest rates.

Company Guidance

In the call, Garanti BBVA provided guidance on several key financial metrics for 2025. The bank anticipates a GDP growth of 3.5% for Turkey, with year-end inflation expected to be 31%, revised up from an earlier estimate of 29%. The current account deficit to GDP is projected to worsen slightly to 1.5%. The bank's net income reached TRY 25.4 billion in the first quarter, marking a 13% year-over-year increase, with a robust return on equity (ROE) of 30.5%. Despite a challenging environment, the bank's core net interest income (NII) surged by 68% quarter-on-quarter, and net fees grew by 4% in the same period. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio rose slightly to 2.6%, with total coverage levels at 3.6%. The bank maintained its year-end guidance for the net cost of risk at 2% to 2.5%, despite a favorable first quarter performance of 1.4%. Garanti BBVA's capital adequacy ratio remains strong, supported by a substantial TRY 105 billion excess capital. The bank also reaffirmed its low-30s ROAE guidance for the year.

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue and profit growth, a stable balance sheet with low leverage, and effective capital management. However, recent challenges in cash flow management highlight areas for improvement to ensure sustained liquidity and financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS has shown strong revenue growth over the years, with a significant increase in total revenue from 2019 to 2024. The net profit margin has remained robust, indicating effective cost management. However, the lack of reported EBIT and EBITDA in the latest period limits the analysis of operating efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The bank maintains a healthy equity base with stockholders' equity increasing over time, reflecting strong capital adequacy. The debt-to-equity ratio is low due to negligible debt levels, enhancing financial stability. The equity ratio shows a solid proportion of assets funded by equity, suggesting good financial health.

Cash Flow

Positive

While the bank has experienced fluctuations in operating cash flow, the overall long-term trend is positive. However, the negative free cash flow in the latest year indicates potential short-term liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests a need for improved cash generation relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	488.24B	287.17B	199.32B	133.01B	61.57B	39.19B
Gross Profit	345.95B	287.17B	334.00B	133.01B	61.57B	39.19B
EBITDA	67.92B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	100.03B	91.24B	86.37B	58.29B	13.47B	6.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.82T	3.00T	2.20T	1.30T	849.40B	540.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	804.78B	591.84B	387.28B	198.97B	216.80B	61.36B
Total Debt	343.48B	191.84B	204.86B	104.47B	97.20B	58.26B
Total Liabilities	3.44T	2.67T	1.96T	1.15T	770.17B	478.50B
Stockholders Equity	377.35B	329.79B	244.70B	152.64B	78.90B	62.16B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-65.65B	-155.25B	186.17B	43.63B	31.02B	8.36B
Operating Cash Flow	-51.64B	-145.82B	191.28B	45.76B	32.31B	9.63B
Investing Cash Flow	-21.13B	-46.85B	-81.76B	-55.25B	-12.41B	-11.72B
Financing Cash Flow	245.67B	95.27B	10.45B	25.67B	29.34B	4.39B

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price3.55

Price Trends

50DMA

3.44

Positive

100DMA

3.13

Positive

200DMA

3.28

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.04

Positive

RSI

51.25

Neutral

STOCH

62.48

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TKGBY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.59, above the 50-day MA of 3.44, and above the 200-day MA of 3.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TKGBY.

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CIB	81 Outperform	$13.27B	14.20	16.25%	13.15%	-8.82%	4.87%
BSAC	76 Outperform	$11.18B	10.00	24.13%	5.55%	12.43%	56.30%
TKGBY	74 Outperform	$15.22B	5.46	31.02%	3.35%	43.01%	-15.38%
BCH	73 Outperform	$14.37B	11.20	22.07%	7.39%	-13.16%	-8.10%
BSBR	70 Outperform	$19.02B	18.66	9.43%	5.83%	-3.77%	-10.59%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.89B	12.03	10.28%	3.73%	9.80%	1.66%
BMA	56 Neutral	$3.81B	875.91	0.11%	1.29%	-62.73%	-99.74%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TKGBY

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS

3.55

0.34

10.59%

BCH

Banco De Chile

28.48

4.37

18.13%

BMA

Banco Macro SA

59.49

1.37

2.36%

BSBR

Banco Santander Brasil

5.27

-0.08

-1.50%

BSAC

Banco Santander Chile

23.97

4.16

21.00%

CIB

Bancolombia

49.80

21.40

75.35%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 01, 2025