TFS Financial (TFSL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.00B
• Dividend Yield: 8.04%
• Average Volume (3M): 727.41K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 44.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: 4.45%
• EPS Growth: 14.27%
• Country: US
• Employees: 919
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 280,570,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 705,086
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 727,414
• PEG Ratio: 2.83
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 51.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.21
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 11.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 27.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 66.74
• 1Y Price Target: $14.50
• Price Target Upside: 3.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.33
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $348.48M

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.50 ▲(10.56% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by stable financial performance with solid revenue and cash generation, partially offset by leverage, modest ROE, and margin compression. Technicals add mild support from an improving longer-term trend but mixed near-term momentum, while valuation is held back by a high P/E despite a very attractive dividend yield; corporate events add a modest positive stability/capital-returns tilt.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth & Profitability

Sustained revenue expansion and mid-teens EBIT margins show the core mortgage and deposit franchises produce recurring operating earnings. Over the next 2-6 months this underpins predictable operating cash flow, supports reinvestment in originations and funds ongoing dividend capacity.

Cash Generation Quality

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow (FFO tracking earnings ~0.89x net income TTM) indicates good earnings quality and internal funding for lending and shareholder returns. This reduces reliance on capital markets and supports balance sheet flexibility over months ahead.

Stable Capital Returns & Governance

Regular dividend declarations and the mutual holding company’s waiver demonstrate a structural commitment to public shareholder cash returns. That governance arrangement and steady payout policy provide durable support for investor income expectations and signal disciplined capital allocation.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio near 2.6 reflects bank-style leverage that constrains capital flexibility. Elevated leverage increases sensitivity to funding stress or loan losses and limits the firm’s capacity to pursue large organic or inorganic growth initiatives without issuing equity or retaining earnings.

Modest Returns on Equity

ROE in the mid-single digits points to limited capital efficiency versus peers. Persistently modest ROE curbs capacity to boost shareholder returns or absorb adverse credit cycles, and it pressures management to either improve margins or grow higher-return assets to create durable value.

Margin Compression

Reported margin compression reduces the earnings buffer from interest spreads and fee income. If structural pressures on spreads or higher operating costs persist, sustaining prior profitability will be harder, limiting surplus cash for growth and dividends across the medium term.

TFS Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TFS Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides retail consumer banking services in the United States. Its deposit products include savings, money market, checking, individual retirement, and other qualified plan accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. The company also provides residential real estate mortgage loans, residential construction loans, and home equity loans and lines of credit, as well as purchase mortgages and first mortgage refinance loans. In addition, it offers escrow and settlement services. The company provides its products and services through its main office in Cleveland, Ohio; and 37 full-service branches and 7 loan production offices located throughout the states of Ohio and Florida. The company was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. TFS Financial Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Third Federal Savings and Loan Association of Cleveland, MHC.

How the Company Makes Money

TFS Financial generates revenue primarily through the interest earned on its loan portfolio, which includes residential mortgages and home equity loans. The company charges interest on these loans, which is a key revenue stream. Additionally, TFS Financial earns income from fees associated with loan origination and servicing, as well as from deposit accounts through interest spread between the rates they pay on deposits and the rates they charge on loans. The company may also generate revenue from investment securities. Strategic partnerships with real estate agents and mortgage brokers can further enhance their loan origination capabilities and market reach, contributing to overall earnings.

TFS Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement is solid (revenue growth and steady profitability), and cash flow is generally supportive with positive operating/free cash flow. The main constraints are margin compression versus earlier years, elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~2.6) and modest ROE (~4–5%), which keep overall financial strength in the middle range.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded meaningfully over the period, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue up strongly versus prior years, supporting steady earnings. Profitability remains solid (TTM net margin ~11% and EBIT margin ~14%), but margins have compressed versus earlier years (when net margins were notably higher), suggesting a less favorable spread/expense environment. Net income has been stable to modestly higher, indicating resilience, but the reduced margin profile keeps the score below top-tier.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects typical bank leverage, but debt remains elevated relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~2.6 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), limiting flexibility. Equity has been fairly stable and assets have grown, which is supportive, yet returns on equity are modest (~4–5%), pointing to average capital efficiency. Overall: stable, but leverage and only moderate shareholder returns temper the strength.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is steady, with positive operating cash flow and free cash flow across periods. Free cash flow generally tracks earnings well (TTM free cash flow is ~0.89x net income), indicating decent earnings quality. However, free cash flow growth is volatile (strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) after weaker/flat prior-year trends), and the provided operating cash flow coverage figure is inconsistent across periods (including a zero in TTM), which adds some uncertainty.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	804.51M	791.96M	758.78M	633.35M	433.14M	444.65M
Gross Profit	327.37M	318.97M	304.66M	306.50M	290.20M	295.93M
EBITDA	132.56M	137.76M	119.35M	111.48M	119.09M	132.66M
Net Income	90.81M	90.96M	79.59M	75.25M	74.56M	81.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	17.50B	17.46B	17.09B	16.92B	15.79B	14.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	481.21M	483.48M	989.97M	975.07M	827.47M	910.11M
Total Debt	4.94B	4.90B	4.82B	5.30B	4.82B	3.13B
Total Liabilities	15.60B	15.56B	15.23B	14.99B	13.95B	12.33B
Stockholders Equity	1.90B	1.89B	1.86B	1.93B	1.84B	1.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	83.14M	70.97M	85.54M	85.62M	36.23M	81.82M
Operating Cash Flow	95.62M	82.42M	88.60M	90.72M	38.93M	83.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-367.29M	-383.98M	-124.71M	-1.01B	-1.88B	547.36M
Financing Cash Flow	262.44M	267.28M	33.08M	1.02B	1.72B	-640.22M

TFS Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 14.02
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TFSL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.71, below the 50-day MA of 14.28, and above the 200-day MA of 13.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TFSL.

TFS Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UCB	78 Outperform	$3.96B	12.63	9.23%	3.02%	5.63%	65.11%
FBP	77 Outperform	$3.46B	10.19	18.97%	3.38%	2.35%	13.72%
FULT	75 Outperform	$3.81B	10.18	11.71%	3.52%	9.60%	20.38%
RNST	72 Outperform	$3.70B	18.84	5.52%	2.47%	20.26%	-35.00%
TCBI	71 Outperform	$4.27B	14.64	9.44%	―	5.19%	3454.95%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
TFSL	64 Neutral	$4.00B	44.71	4.68%	8.04%	4.45%	14.27%

TFS Financial Corporate Events

TFS Financial Stockholders Back Directors and Governance Agenda

At its annual meeting held on February 26, 2026, in Cleveland, TFS Financial stockholders elected four directors, William C. Mulligan, Terrence R. Ozan, Marc A. Stefanski and Daniel F. Weir, each to serve three-year terms, solidifying continuity in the company’s board leadership. Shareholders also approved on an advisory basis the compensation of named executive officers and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as independent accountant for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, reinforcing support for existing executive pay practices and the company’s external auditing framework.

These outcomes indicate broad investor alignment with TFS Financial’s current governance and oversight structures, as reflected in strong vote totals for all director nominees and the auditor ratification. The decisions are likely to provide stability in strategic direction and financial reporting for the coming years, signaling to stakeholders that no major governance shifts are anticipated following the 2026 meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (TFSL) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TFS Financial stock, see the TFSL Stock Forecast page.

TFS Financial Declares Quarterly Dividend, Continues Capital Returns

On February 26, 2026, TFS Financial Corporation’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.2825 per share, payable on March 25, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 11, 2026. The move continues the company’s pattern of regular capital returns while leaving its mutual holding company structure intact.

Third Federal Savings and Loan Association of Cleveland, MHC, which owns 81% of the company’s outstanding common stock, has again waived its right to receive the dividend under member and Federal Reserve approvals obtained on July 8, 2025. This waiver, part of an authorization to forego up to $1.13 per share in dividends through July 8, 2026, channels the full payout to public shareholders and follows earlier waivers totaling $0.565 per share for dividends paid in the quarters ended September 30 and December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TFSL) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TFS Financial stock, see the TFSL Stock Forecast page.

TFS Financial Grants CEO Significant Long-Term Equity Award

On December 18, 2025, TFS Financial granted CEO Marc Stefanski a special one-time equity retention award valued at a total of $7.7 million, composed of 40% restricted stock units and 60% performance stock units that each carry a five-year cliff vesting schedule ending on December 10, 2030, and are generally forfeited upon voluntary or involuntary termination other than death or disability. The board and compensation committee, guided by external benchmarking, structured the award with no retirement vesting provisions, performance hurdles tied to return on average assets, and post-employment non-compete and non-solicitation restrictions, underscoring the company’s priority on retaining Stefanski’s leadership, aligning his incentives with long-term shareholder value, and maintaining continuity of its core management and succession plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (TFSL) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TFS Financial stock, see the TFSL Stock Forecast page.