Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI)
NASDAQ:TCBI
Top Page
Texas Capital Bancshares
(NASDAQ:TCBI)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$112.00
▲(17.24% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (profitability rebound and stronger balance sheet), supported by a positive earnings outlook and record operating results on the latest call. Offsetting factors include historically volatile earnings/cash flows, mixed near-term technical momentum, and only moderate valuation support at a ~14.6 P/E with no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
De-risked balance sheet & stronger capital
Materially lower leverage and higher regulatory capital provide durable shock absorption and strategic optionality. A healthier capital base supports continued lending, buybacks, and investment without immediate dilution, lowering long-term earnings volatility and enhancing resilience to stress scenarios.
Fee diversification and recurring noninterest income
Growing fee pools (treasury, investment banking, trading) reduce dependence on net interest income, smoothing revenue across rate cycles. Durable fee diversification raises PPNR stability, supports margin expansion opportunities, and funds investments in front-office capabilities for sustained higher-margin growth.
Profitability rebound with solid cash conversion
A full-year profitability rebound with strong cash conversion improves self-funding for growth and capital returns. Reliable FCF relative to earnings supports disciplined buybacks and reinvestment, enabling long-term returns even if near-term margins normalize.
Negative Factors
Earnings and cash-flow volatility
Significant year-to-year swings in cash flow and earnings reduce predictability of capital allocation and stress testing. Persistent volatility can force higher provisioning, curb buybacks or hiring in downturns, and leave the bank more sensitive to cyclical credit and margin shocks versus steadier peers.
Concentrated multifamily CRE stress
Concentrated special-mention exposure in a single segment elevates downside risk to asset quality and capital if local market rents or leasing slow further. Even with strong sponsors, persistent stress in this cohort could raise provisions and depress returns over multiple quarters.
Margin pressure from deposit repricing and mortgage funding seasonality
Seasonal deposit outflows and lower mortgage self-funding make margins more sensitive to funding costs and market moves. Reduced internal funding and deposit beta uncertainty can compress NIM over time, forcing higher reliance on wholesale funding or hedges that raise cost and earnings volatility.
Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.22B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)522.91K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.1
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth5.19%
EPS Growth3454.95%
CountryUS
Employees1,818
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.12
Shares Outstanding44,176,838
10 Day Avg. Volume577,709
30 Day Avg. Volume522,909
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.12
Price to Sales (P/S)2.04
P/FCF Ratio11.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$104.64Price Target Upside9.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)7.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.35B
Texas Capital Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTexas Capital Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Texas Capital Bank, is a full-service financial services firm that delivers customized solutions to businesses, entrepreneurs, and individual customers. The company offers commercial banking, consumer banking, investment banking, and wealth management services. It offers business deposit products and services, including commercial checking accounts, lockbox accounts, and cash concentration accounts, as well as information, wire transfer initiation, ACH initiation, account transfer, and service integration services; and consumer deposit products, such as checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit. The company also provides commercial loans for general corporate purposes comprising financing working capital, internal growth, acquisitions, and business insurance premiums, as well as consumer loans; loans to exploration and production companies; mortgage finance loans; commercial real estate and residential homebuilder finance loans; first and second lien loans for the purpose of purchasing or constructing 1-4 family residential dwellings, as well as home equity revolving lines of credit and loans to purchase lots for future construction of 1-4 family residential dwellings; and real estate loans originated through a small business administration program, as well as equipment finance and leasing services, and letters of credit. In addition, it offers online and mobile banking, and debit and credit card services; escrow services; personal wealth management and trust services; and depositors American Airlines AAdvantage miles. It operates in Austin, Fort Worth, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio metropolitan areas of Texas. Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyTexas Capital Bancshares generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investments, as well as non-interest income from various service fees. The bank's loan portfolio, which includes commercial loans, real estate loans, and consumer loans, is a significant source of interest income. Additionally, TCBI earns fees from deposit services, treasury management, and wealth management services, contributing to its non-interest income. The company's focus on relationship-based banking allows it to build strong ties with clients, leading to repeat business and sustained revenue streams. Furthermore, strategic partnerships and collaborations enhance its service offerings, driving growth and profitability.
Texas Capital Bancshares Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Texas Capital Bancshares Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 22, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple record outcomes—revenue, PPNR, fee income, earnings, tangible book value—and clear progress on capital strength, client acquisition, and diversification of fee streams. Management balanced optimism about scaling front-office capabilities and continued revenue diversification with prudent conservatism on credit and provisioning. Near-term headwinds include isolated CRE multifamily stress, seasonal deposit and expense dynamics, and some margin timing effects, but these were presented as manageable within a substantially stronger and de-risked franchise.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Earnings
Full-year adjusted total revenue of approximately $1.26 billion, up ~13% year-over-year; record adjusted net income to common of $313.8M (reported as $314M) and record adjusted EPS of $6.80, a ~53% improvement over adjusted 2024 levels.
Improved and Sustained Profitability Metrics
Full-year adjusted ROAA of 1.04% (a 30 basis point improvement vs. 2024) and Q4 adjusted ROAA of 1.2%; record adjusted pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) of $489M, up ~32% year-over-year.
Net Interest Income and Margin Strength
Full-year net interest income grew ~14% to ~$1.03 billion; year-over-year net interest margin expanded ~45 basis points. The firm demonstrated resilience to falling short-term rates while still delivering NII growth.
Fee Income and Diversification Progress
Record fee income and noninterest revenue: fee income from strategic areas of focus of $192M and total adjusted noninterest income of $229M (up ~8–9% year-over-year). Treasury product fees grew ~24% for the year; investment banking and trading volumes increased substantially (IB transaction volume +~40%, Texas Capital Securities volume +45%).
Strong Capital and Book Value Creation
Tangible book value per share reached $75.25, up ~13.4% year-over-year; tangible common equity to tangible assets a record ~10.56% (10.6% reported), ranking first among largest banks; CET1 ended the quarter at 12.1%, up ~75 basis points year-over-year.
Loan and Deposit Growth in Core Segments
Commercial loan growth of ~$1.1B (~10% year-over-year); total gross LHI increased ~$1.6B (~7% year-over-year to $24.1B); interest-bearing deposits excluding brokered and indexed increased ~$1.7B (~10% year-over-year).
Capital Deployment and Share Repurchases
Repurchased ~2.25M shares for ~$184M in 2025 (≈4.9% of prior-year shares outstanding), including Q4 buybacks (~1.4M shares for ~$125M), executed opportunistically and accretive to tangible book value.
Mortgage Finance Enhancements and Risk-Adjusted Returns
Average mortgage finance loans grew (~12% full-year; Q4 average $5.9B, +8% linked quarter). Approximately 59% of mortgage finance balances migrated to enhanced credit structures, lowering blended risk weight to ~57% and effectively creating >$275M of regulatory capital equivalence.
Operating Efficiency and Controlled Expense Growth
Full-year adjusted noninterest expense increased modestly (~4% to $768.9M) consistent with guidance; quarterly noninterest expense showed improvement (Q4 adjusted noninterest expense $186.4M, -2% linked quarter after accrual adjustments). 2026 expense guidance calls for mid-single-digit growth tied to targeted front-office hires and continued technology investment.
Negative Updates
Credit Stress in Select Multifamily CRE Loans
A modest linked-quarter increase in special mention loans tied to a handful of Central Texas multifamily properties (~$205M–$250M in special mention CRE on a ~$5.5B portfolio); properties require rental concessions and longer lease-up, pressuring net operating income despite strong sponsors and equity support.
Quarterly Net Charge-offs and Provisioning
Q4 net charge-offs of $10.7M (≈18 basis points of LHI) and Q4 provision expense ~$11M; full-year provision expense was ~31 basis points of average LHI (ex-mortgage finance). Management is moderating 2026 provision outlook to 35–40 basis points of average LHI (ex-mortgage finance) given macro uncertainty.
Near-Term NIM Pressure and Timing Effects
Quarterly net interest margin declined ~9 basis points (linked quarter) and Q4 net interest income decreased ~$4.3M due to timing differences between lower loan yields and deposit cost reductions; January should reflect more benefit from reduced deposit costs. Management expects mid-3% range for NIM in early 2026 with modest NII growth potential.
Mortgage Finance Deposit Seasonality and Self-Funding Ratio
Period-end mortgage finance noninterest-bearing deposit balances decreased ~$963M quarter-over-quarter due to escrow tax remittances; mortgage finance self-funding ratio declined to ~85% (from 107% a year ago), which is transitional and expected to rebuild seasonally but reduced near-term margin benefit.
Expense Seasonality and Near-Term Elevation
Q1 2026 noninterest expense expected to be elevated (guidance $210–$215M) due to ~$18M of seasonal compensation and ~$10M of incentive/merit impacts; full-year expense growth guided to mid-single-digits, reflecting higher compensation tied to performance and platform investments.
Macro Uncertainty and Conservative Positioning
Management repeatedly emphasized a conservative view of the macro outlook, modestly higher earnings-at-risk in certain downside scenarios, and a cautious provisioning posture (raising the guidance band to 35–40 bps) which could damp near-term earnings if risks materialize.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 to mid‑to‑high single‑digit total revenue growth, with full‑year noninterest revenue of $265–$290 million (including $160–$175 million of investment banking fees) and Q1 noninterest income of $60–$65 million (investment banking $35–$40 million); full‑year noninterest expense is expected to grow in the mid‑single digits with Q1 noninterest expense of $210–$215 million (about $18 million seasonal comp plus ~$10 million for incentive/merit and recent hires). They moderated provision expense to 35–40 basis points of average LHI excluding mortgage finance, expect mortgage finance self‑funding near 85% in Q1 with seasonal improvement, and forecast Q1 net interest income of $250–$255 million with flattish margins in the mid‑threes. Deposit repricing assumptions include cumulative deposit beta in the low‑70s by end‑Q1 (with the full‑year guide using ~60% beta on incremental cuts), the hedge book is expected to cost roughly $10 million pretax NII in 2026, and management plans selective swap activity and continued fee‑driven growth while investing to scale the platform.Texas Capital Bancshares Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong 2025 rebound with materially higher profitability and a meaningfully de-risked balance sheet (lower leverage; ROE recovery). The main offset is volatility in earnings/cash flows, including a sharp 2025 free-cash-flow decline and prior-cycle margin swings.Income Statement
Revenue rebounded strongly in 2025 (annual revenue up ~64% after a slight decline in 2024), and profitability improved materially as net margin expanded from ~4.4% (2024) to ~16.5% (2025). However, results have been volatile across the cycle—2021–2022 showed unusually high margins, followed by a sharp dip in 2024—suggesting earnings sensitivity and less consistent profitability than top-tier peers.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage has improved meaningfully, with debt-to-equity stepping down from ~1.22 (2020) to ~0.26 (2025), while equity has grown and assets have been relatively stable. Return on equity also recovered to ~9.1% in 2025 from ~2.3% in 2024, but it remains below the prior peak (~10.9% in 2022), indicating the balance sheet is healthier, though profitability still has room to normalize higher.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is positive, with free cash flow roughly matching net income in 2025 (free cash flow to net income ~1.0), and generally strong conversion in prior years as well. The key weakness is volatility: free cash flow fell sharply in 2025 (about -46.7% growth), and operating cash flow has swung significantly year-to-year, reducing confidence in near-term cash flow consistency.56
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.00B | 1.76B | 1.79B | 1.25B | 987.05M |
| Gross Profit | 1.21B | 865.35M | 1.00B | 910.76M | 909.30M |
| EBITDA | 480.00M | 161.29M | 287.07M | 477.04M | 431.46M |
| Net Income | 330.24M | 77.51M | 189.14M | 332.48M | 253.94M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 31.54B | 30.73B | 28.36B | 28.41B | 34.73B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.62B | 3.37B | 6.47B | 7.63B | 11.53B |
| Total Debt | 950.58M | 1.55B | 2.36B | 2.13B | 3.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.91B | 27.36B | 25.16B | 25.36B | 31.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.63B | 3.37B | 3.20B | 3.06B | 3.21B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 347.58M | 416.28M | 357.36M | 136.70M | 653.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 360.15M | 481.12M | 373.74M | 147.97M | 657.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.85B | -2.48B | -1.76B | 3.31B | 1.23B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 404.27M | 1.94B | -387.67M | -6.39B | -3.15B |
Texas Capital Bancshares Technical Analysis
Neutral
95.53
Price Trends
98.50
Negative
92.82
Positive
87.53
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.68
Positive
41.03
Neutral
18.49
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCBI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 95.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 101.81, below the 50-day MA of 98.50, and above the 200-day MA of 87.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.49 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TCBI.
Texas Capital Bancshares Risk Analysis
Texas Capital Bancshares disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Texas Capital Bancshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Texas Capital Bancshares Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.88B | 12.37 | 9.23% | 3.02% | 5.63% | 65.11% | |
71 Outperform | $4.22B | 14.06 | 9.44% | ― | 5.19% | 3454.95% | |
70 Outperform | $3.73B | 9.97 | 11.71% | 3.52% | 9.60% | 20.38% | |
69 Neutral | $3.62B | 18.56 | 5.52% | 2.47% | 20.26% | -35.00% | |
68 Neutral | $3.51B | 11.82 | 8.95% | 5.24% | -5.43% | 4.19% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $3.89B | 17.90 | 5.51% | 3.05% | 11.05% | -10.78% |
* Financial Sector Average
TCBI
Texas Capital Bancshares
95.53
20.34
27.05%
FIBK
First Interstate Bancsystem
34.73
7.55
27.80%
FULT
Fulton Financial
20.74
2.47
13.53%
INDB
Independent Bank
79.48
17.09
27.39%
RNST
Renasant
38.42
4.42
13.00%
UCB
United Community Banks
32.40
3.07
10.46%
Texas Capital Bancshares Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Texas Capital Bancshares Completes $400 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Texas Capital Bancshares completed a $400 million public offering of 5.301% fixed-to-floating rate senior notes due 2032, underwritten by a syndicate led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and its affiliate Texas Capital Securities. The notes, issued under an indenture with U.S. Bank Trust Company as trustee, pay a fixed 5.301% rate semi-annually through February 27, 2031, then convert to a floating rate tied to the Compounded Secured Overnight Financing Rate plus 1.94% until maturity on February 27, 2032.
The company received approximately $398.4 million in gross proceeds before expenses and plans to use the funds for general corporate purposes, which may include redeeming its 4.000% subordinated notes due 2031. The transaction strengthens Texas Capital Bancshares’ funding profile and capital flexibility, potentially lowering its future funding costs and adjusting its liability mix as it manages upcoming debt maturities.
The most recent analyst rating on (TCBI) stock is a Hold with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Texas Capital Bancshares stock, see the TCBI Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Texas Capital Bancshares Simplifies Capital Structure via Elimination
Neutral
Feb 20, 2026
On February 20, 2026, Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. eliminated a previously authorized but unused class of Series A-1 Nonvoting Common Stock by filing a Certificate of Elimination in Delaware, confirming that no shares were outstanding and that none would be issued under that designation. On the same date, the company also eliminated its unused 6.50% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A, returning those previously authorized but unissued preferred shares to the pool of undesignated preferred stock, thereby simplifying its capital structure without affecting existing shareholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (TCBI) stock is a Hold with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Texas Capital Bancshares stock, see the TCBI Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Texas Capital Bancshares Announces 2026 Share Buyback Plan
Positive
Dec 2, 2025
On December 1, 2025, Texas Capital Bancshares announced a new share repurchase program for 2026, allowing the company to buy back up to $200 million of its common stock. This program, effective December 12, 2025, replaces the current program and reflects the company’s strategic approach to managing its capital and market positioning.
The most recent analyst rating on (TCBI) stock is a Hold with a $91.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Texas Capital Bancshares stock, see the TCBI Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.