Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI)
NASDAQ:TCBI
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Texas Capital Bancshares
(NASDAQ:TCBI)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$99.00
▲(6.83% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/10/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial fundamentals (profitability rebound and de-risked balance sheet) and a constructive earnings outlook, partially offset by weak technical momentum and remaining volatility/credit and margin headwinds.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet & Capital Strength
Meaningfully lower leverage and recovering ROE indicate a de‑risked balance sheet and greater loss-absorption capacity. Strong tangible equity and CET1 trends reported support regulatory resilience, reduce funding fragility, and afford the bank flexibility for capital deployment and opportunistic repurchases over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Volatility
Large year-to-year swings in free cash flow undermine predictability of internal funding for loans, technology, and buybacks. While FCF matched net income in 2025, the sharp decline reduces confidence in sustainable cash generation and increases reliance on capital markets or tighter expense control during stress periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet & Capital Strength
Meaningfully lower leverage and recovering ROE indicate a de‑risked balance sheet and greater loss-absorption capacity. Strong tangible equity and CET1 trends reported support regulatory resilience, reduce funding fragility, and afford the bank flexibility for capital deployment and opportunistic repurchases over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.09B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)487.74K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.3
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth5.19%
EPS Growth3454.95%
CountryUS
Employees1,818
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.12
Shares Outstanding44,176,838
10 Day Avg. Volume452,694
30 Day Avg. Volume487,738
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.12
Price to Sales (P/S)2.04
P/FCF Ratio11.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.77
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$104.60Price Target Upside12.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)7.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.35B
Texas Capital Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Texas Capital Bank, is a full-service financial services firm that delivers customized solutions to businesses, entrepreneurs, and individual customers. The company offers com...
How the Company Makes Money
Texas Capital Bancshares generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investments, as well as non-interest income from various service fees. The bank's loan portfolio, which includes commercial loans, real estate loans, and c...
Texas Capital Bancshares Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Texas Capital Bancshares Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 22, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple record outcomes—revenue, PPNR, fee income, earnings, tangible book value—and clear progress on capital strength, client acquisition, and diversification of fee streams. Management balanced optimism about scaling front-office capabilities and continued revenue diversification with prudent conservatism on credit and provisioning. Near-term headwinds include isolated CRE multifamily stress, seasonal deposit and expense dynamics, and some margin timing effects, but these were presented as manageable within a substantially stronger and de-risked franchise.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Earnings
Full-year adjusted total revenue of approximately $1.26 billion, up ~13% year-over-year; record adjusted net income to common of $313.8M (reported as $314M) and record adjusted EPS of $6.80, a ~53% improvement over adjusted 2024 levels.
Negative Updates
Credit Stress in Select Multifamily CRE Loans
A modest linked-quarter increase in special mention loans tied to a handful of Central Texas multifamily properties (~$205M–$250M in special mention CRE on a ~$5.5B portfolio); properties require rental concessions and longer lease-up, pressuring net operating income despite strong sponsors and equity support.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Earnings
Full-year adjusted total revenue of approximately $1.26 billion, up ~13% year-over-year; record adjusted net income to common of $313.8M (reported as $314M) and record adjusted EPS of $6.80, a ~53% improvement over adjusted 2024 levels.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 to mid‑to‑high single‑digit total revenue growth, with full‑year noninterest revenue of $265–$290 million (including $160–$175 million of investment banking fees) and Q1 noninterest income of $60–$65 million (investment banking $35–$40 million); full‑year noninterest expense is expected to grow in the mid‑single digits with Q1 noninterest expense of $210–$215 million (about $18 million seasonal comp plus ~$10 million for incentive/merit and recent hires). They moderated provision expense to 35–40 basis points of average LHI excluding mortgage finance, expect mortgage finance self‑funding near 85% in Q1 with seasonal improvement, and forecast Q1 net interest income of $250–$255 million with flattish margins in the mid‑threes. Deposit repricing assumptions include cumulative deposit beta in the low‑70s by end‑Q1 (with the full‑year guide using ~60% beta on incremental cuts), the hedge book is expected to cost roughly $10 million pretax NII in 2026, and management plans selective swap activity and continued fee‑driven growth while investing to scale the platform.Texas Capital Bancshares Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.00B | 1.76B | 1.79B | 1.25B | 987.05M |
| Gross Profit | 1.21B | 865.35M | 1.00B | 910.76M | 909.30M |
| EBITDA | 480.00M | 161.29M | 287.07M | 477.04M | 431.46M |
| Net Income | 330.24M | 77.51M | 189.14M | 332.48M | 253.94M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 31.54B | 30.73B | 28.36B | 28.41B | 34.73B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 205.24M | 3.37B | 6.47B | 7.63B | 11.53B |
| Total Debt | 950.58M | 1.55B | 2.36B | 2.13B | 3.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.91B | 27.36B | 25.16B | 25.36B | 31.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.63B | 3.37B | 3.20B | 3.06B | 3.21B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 347.58M | 416.28M | 357.36M | 136.70M | 653.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 360.15M | 481.12M | 373.74M | 147.97M | 657.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.85B | -2.48B | -1.76B | 3.31B | 1.23B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 404.27M | 1.94B | -387.67M | -6.39B | -3.15B |
Texas Capital Bancshares Technical Analysis
Negative
92.67
Price Trends
98.06
Negative
94.62
Negative
89.25
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.20
Negative
42.69
Neutral
66.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCBI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 92.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 93.23, below the 50-day MA of 98.06, and above the 200-day MA of 89.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TCBI.
Texas Capital Bancshares Risk Analysis
Texas Capital Bancshares disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Texas Capital Bancshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Texas Capital Bancshares Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.70B | 11.58 | 9.15% | 3.02% | 5.63% | 65.11% | |
70 Outperform | $3.54B | 9.05 | 11.60% | 3.52% | 9.60% | 20.38% | |
69 Neutral | $3.31B | 18.35 | 5.10% | 2.47% | 20.26% | -35.00% | |
68 Neutral | $3.32B | 11.75 | 8.83% | 5.24% | -5.43% | 4.19% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $4.09B | 12.34 | 9.30% | ― | 5.19% | 3454.95% | |
64 Neutral | $3.61B | 17.62 | 6.21% | 3.05% | 11.05% | -10.78% |
* Financial Sector Average
TCBI
Texas Capital Bancshares
92.67
17.97
24.06%
FIBK
First Interstate Bancsystem
32.81
5.84
21.66%
FULT
Fulton Financial
19.68
2.12
12.08%
INDB
Independent Bank
73.73
12.66
20.73%
RNST
Renasant
35.19
2.09
6.31%
UCB
United Community Banks
30.93
3.69
13.54%
Texas Capital Bancshares Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Texas Capital Bancshares Announces Redemption of Subordinated Notes
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 9, 2026, Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. announced that it had notified holders of its 4.000% Fixed-to-Fixed Rate Subordinated Notes due 2031 that all $375 million of the outstanding notes will be redeemed. The redemption will occur on May...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Texas Capital Bancshares Completes $400 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Texas Capital Bancshares completed a $400 million public offering of 5.301% fixed-to-floating rate senior notes due 2032, underwritten by a syndicate led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and its affiliate Texas Capital Secur...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Texas Capital Bancshares Simplifies Capital Structure via Elimination
Neutral
Feb 20, 2026
On February 20, 2026, Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. eliminated a previously authorized but unused class of Series A-1 Nonvoting Common Stock by filing a Certificate of Elimination in Delaware, confirming that no shares were outstanding and that n...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.