Triumph Financial (TFIN)
NYSE:TFIN
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Triumph Financial
(NYSE:TFIN)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$62.00
▲(7.14% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score is primarily constrained by weakening profitability and deteriorating cash flow quality despite a solid, low-leverage balance sheet. Technical indicators also point to soft near-term momentum. A high P/E further pressures the risk/reward, while the latest earnings call provides a partial offset via improving margin trajectory, cost savings, and defined 2026 growth targets—tempered by execution and scale risks.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Triumph’s low leverage and growing equity provide durable financial flexibility, lowering funding risk and supporting lending and platform investments. A conservatively levered bank can sustain shocks, finance growth initiatives, and support preferred dividend commitments without immediate capital raises.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Recent negative free cash flow and slipping operating cash flow reduce internal funding for growth and cushion for credit losses. Over several quarters this can force reliance on external funding or slower reinvestment, constraining balance-sheet deployment and product scaling.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
Triumph’s low leverage and growing equity provide durable financial flexibility, lowering funding risk and supporting lending and platform investments. A conservatively levered bank can sustain shocks, finance growth initiatives, and support preferred dividend commitments without immediate capital raises.
Read all positive factors
Triumph Financial (TFIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.37B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)254.19K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.4
Beta (1Y)1.36
Revenue Growth2.04%
EPS Growth-64.17%
CountryUS
Employees1,547
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.77
Shares Outstanding23,793,964
10 Day Avg. Volume312,204
30 Day Avg. Volume254,188
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.82
Price to Book (P/B)1.57
Price to Sales (P/S)2.87
P/FCF Ratio29.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.82
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.26
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.47
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$69.33Price Target Upside19.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$463.30M
Triumph Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Triumph Financial Inc., a financial and technology company, focuses on payments, factoring, and banking. It operates through a portfolio of brands, including TriumphPay, Triumph, and TBK Bank. The company offers cash flow management services for t...
How the Company Makes Money
Triumph Financial generates revenue primarily through its factoring services, where it purchases accounts receivable from trucking companies at a discount, providing immediate cash flow to its clients. This allows transportation businesses to meet...
Triumph Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized improving underlying profitability and monetization: core payments margins are expanding (29.5% in Q4, >30% targeted for 2026), factoring margins improved to ~33% with a goal above 40%, monetization of invoices rose to 35% (38% in December), strategic customer wins (JB Hunt, 8 of top 10 brokers) and $6M/year of cost savings underpin a positive operational trajectory. Key growth engines (Load Pay, factoring-as-a-service, intelligence cross-sell and TFX) have clear plans and early traction but remain at modest current scale, creating execution risk. There are near-term headwinds from seasonality, certain legacy assets (ABL non-transport exposure) and the need to further drive cross-sell and factor adoption. Overall, the positive momentum on margins, monetization, strategic partnerships and booked intelligence revenue outweighs the execution and scale risks noted.Positive Updates
Core Payments EBITDA Margin Expansion
Core payments delivered a 29.5% EBITDA margin in Q4 and management expects the core payments business to trend above 30% EBITDA margin in 2026, with a long-term target of 50%+.
Negative Updates
Load Pay Still Small and Execution Risk
Despite the aggressive target to triple Load Pay revenue in 2026, the business started from a modest $1.5M annualized base, making the growth ramp subject to execution risk and variability in account linking/funding rates.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Core Payments EBITDA Margin Expansion
Core payments delivered a 29.5% EBITDA margin in Q4 and management expects the core payments business to trend above 30% EBITDA margin in 2026, with a long-term target of 50%+.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided payments revenue to grow about 25% in 2026 and factoring revenue to grow in the low‑teens, with core payments already at a ~29.5% EBITDA margin in Q4 and expected to trend above 30% in 2026 on the way to a long‑term >50% target; factoring pretax margin was ~33% in Q4 and management targets >40% over time. Load Pay exited the quarter at $1.5M annualized revenue and is forecast to triple in 2026 (to roughly $4.5M) by opening 7,000–12,000 accounts with an average revenue per account of about $750 (top 10 accounts >$5,000), and management is focused on raising linked/funded utilization. Monetization of invoices rose to 35% for Q4 (38% in December) with further increases effective Jan. 1, intelligence bookings added ~$1.0M of annualized revenue in Q4 (billing ~30 days), only 22% of customers use both payments and audit (14% use intelligence), and the ~$6M of annualized savings from the building/airplane sale is baked into the Q1 expense run rate (with a typical seasonal Q1 expense uptick).Triumph Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 516.08M | 487.63M | 471.85M | 502.94M | 442.00M |
| Gross Profit | 433.05M | 397.10M | 406.05M | 477.63M | 432.46M |
| EBITDA | 47.86M | 53.82M | 82.52M | 166.29M | 167.87M |
| Net Income | 25.36M | 16.09M | 41.08M | 102.31M | 112.97M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.38B | 5.95B | 5.35B | 5.33B | 5.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 612.75M | 416.91M | 586.28M | 662.69M | 565.60M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 142.01M | 405.42M | 179.30M | 356.81M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.44B | 5.06B | 4.48B | 4.44B | 5.10B |
| Stockholders Equity | 941.77M | 890.92M | 864.40M | 888.97M | 858.86M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 50.62M | -28.59M | 16.24M | 63.58M | 122.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 67.06M | 58.57M | 60.06M | 80.75M | 136.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -525.48M | -590.03M | -129.56M | 666.11M | 77.66M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 376.77M | 574.94M | -52.05M | -721.87M | -145.83M |
Triumph Financial Technical Analysis
Neutral
57.87
Price Trends
62.37
Negative
60.65
Negative
58.99
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.33
Negative
46.96
Neutral
70.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TFIN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 57.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.68, below the 50-day MA of 62.37, and below the 200-day MA of 58.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TFIN.
Triumph Financial Risk Analysis
Triumph Financial disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Triumph Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Triumph Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $1.46B | 10.17 | 4.23% | 3.14% | -1.79% | -23.87% | |
70 Outperform | $1.52B | 12.64 | 9.20% | 2.83% | 0.93% | 5.65% | |
69 Neutral | $1.42B | 9.46 | 10.78% | 1.34% | 1.31% | 2.02% | |
68 Neutral | $1.74B | 22.62 | 8.05% | 3.07% | -2.46% | -1.98% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $1.43B | 10.24 | 2.62% | 4.97% | -7.96% | -52.79% | |
50 Neutral | $1.37B | 19.37 | 2.77% | ― | 2.04% | -64.17% |
* Financial Sector Average
TFIN
Triumph Financial
57.65
-1.15
-1.96%
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Triumph Financial Corporate Events
Dividends
Triumph Financial Declares Quarterly Series C Preferred Dividend
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Triumph Financial, Inc. announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $17.81 per share on its 7.125% Series C Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, equal to $0.44525 per depositary share repres...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.