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Triumph Financial
(NYSE:TFIN)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$87.00
▲(13.12% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/24/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial resilience (lower leverage and solid cash generation) and favorable technical trends (price above key moving averages with positive momentum). These positives are tempered by a demanding valuation (P/E ~54) and earnings-call risks centered on banking revenue/yield pressure, elevated expense levels, and regulatory uncertainty despite strong growth and margin progress in transportation, Factoring, and Payments.
Positive Factors
Conservative Leverage
Debt-to-equity of ~0.12 gives a durable capital cushion, lowering insolvency and refinancing risk. This conservative leverage supports underwriting flexibility, regulatory resilience, and the capacity to fund growth in payments/factoring without immediate external capital, preserving optionality.
Negative Factors
Banking Revenue Pressure
A ~12% drop in core banking revenue and weaker yields signal structural pressure on net interest income. With ABL/liquid credits winding down, the bank's historically steadier NII base may shrink, making overall earnings more dependent on newer fee businesses with different risk and volatility profiles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative Leverage
Debt-to-equity of ~0.12 gives a durable capital cushion, lowering insolvency and refinancing risk. This conservative leverage supports underwriting flexibility, regulatory resilience, and the capacity to fund growth in payments/factoring without immediate external capital, preserving optionality.
Read all positive factors
Triumph Financial (TFIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.81B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)254.19K
Price to Earnings (P/E)51.3
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth9.21%
EPS Growth234.88%
CountryUS
Employees1,450
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.48
Shares Outstanding23,894,537
10 Day Avg. Volume312,204
30 Day Avg. Volume254,188
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.94
Price to Book (P/B)1.57
Price to Sales (P/S)2.87
P/FCF Ratio29.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$85.00Price Target Upside10.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$474.94M
Triumph Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Triumph Financial, Inc., a financial technology enterprise founded in 1981 and based in Dallas, Texas, centers its operations on payments, factoring, and banking. The company, which rebranded from Triumph Bancorp, Inc. in December 2022, executes i...
How the Company Makes Money
Triumph Financial makes money primarily through a combination of (1) traditional banking income and (2) fee-based payments/processing and factoring-related income tied to freight transportation workflows. On the banking side, revenue is generated ...
Triumph Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 21, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive and optimistic tone anchored by strong transportation revenue growth (+23% YoY) and improving margins in Factoring and Payments (Factoring margin +80% YoY improvement; Payments on track to ~50% EBITDA margin). Management highlighted meaningful operational efficiency gains (invoices/FTE) and rising average invoice prices (from $1,769 to $2,011 QTD), plus traction in LoadPay and Intelligence. Near-term headwinds include a weaker banking segment (core banking revenue down ~12% YoY), yield compression from rates and mix, continued investments in non‑profitable but growing businesses (LoadPay, Intelligence), an elevated expense base (Q2 guide $97M), and regulatory/legal uncertainties that could introduce volatility. Overall, the positive growth, margin progress, and operational improvements were presented as outweighing the near-term banking and expense challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Transportation Revenue Growth
Transportation revenue grew 23% year-over-year and management expects at least 20% transportation revenue growth for fiscal 2026.
Negative Updates
Banking Segment Yield and Revenue Pressure
Core banking revenue was down ~12% year-over-year in Q1; overall yields declined across segments. Management cited a declining rate environment and mortgage warehouse deposit mechanics (loan rebates) that compress reported yields.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Transportation Revenue Growth
Transportation revenue grew 23% year-over-year and management expects at least 20% transportation revenue growth for fiscal 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated aggressive 2026 targets: transportation revenue grew 23% last year and management expects at least 20% growth this year (they also noted a prior “North Star” 15% target tied to roughly $1 of incremental EPS), while holding corporate expense largely flat (Q2 expense guide ~$97M; they said they finished last year near $96.5M and are not planning cuts to ~$80M). Key margin and operating metrics include Factoring operating margin up ~80% year‑over‑year and targeted to exit the year around a ~40% operating margin; the core Payments network is guided toward ~50% EBITDA margin. Operational KPIs: invoices purchased in Q1 were ~12% higher YoY, invoices per FTE in Factoring ~7,200 (vs ~5,600 prior year), and average invoice prices moved from $1,769 a year ago to $1,897 at quarter end and ~$2,011 quarter‑to‑date (Triumph Factoring average >$2,000; Payments average ~$1,200–$1,300). Other finance notes: bank yields were pressured (core banking revenue down ~12% YoY in Q1) from falling rates and mortgage‑warehouse rebates, ABL/liquid credit portfolios should be wound down in ~2–3 quarters with provisions expected to grind lower, and Payments pricing ramps typically take ~3–4 quarters (aspirational per‑customer pricing: $1.25 core + ~$1 audit ≈ $2.25).Triumph Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 480.19M | 516.08M | 487.63M | 471.85M | 502.94M | 442.00M |
| Gross Profit | 412.81M | 433.05M | 397.10M | 406.05M | 477.63M | 432.46M |
| EBITDA | 75.36M | 47.86M | 53.82M | 82.52M | 166.29M | 167.87M |
| Net Income | 38.65M | 25.36M | 16.09M | 41.08M | 102.31M | 112.97M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.40B | 6.38B | 5.95B | 5.35B | 5.33B | 5.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 342.16M | 612.75M | 416.91M | 586.28M | 662.69M | 565.60M |
| Total Debt | 113.30M | 392.87M | 142.01M | 405.42M | 179.30M | 356.81M |
| Total Liabilities | 6.44B | 5.44B | 5.06B | 4.48B | 4.44B | 5.10B |
| Stockholders Equity | 963.26M | 941.77M | 890.92M | 864.40M | 888.97M | 858.86M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 93.19M | 50.62M | -28.59M | 16.24M | 63.58M | 122.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 112.11M | 67.06M | 58.57M | 60.06M | 80.75M | 136.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -345.87M | -525.48M | -590.03M | -129.56M | 666.11M | 77.66M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 848.23M | 376.77M | 574.94M | -52.05M | -721.87M | -145.83M |
Triumph Financial Risk Analysis
Triumph Financial disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Triumph Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Triumph Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.78B | 11.79 | 11.75% | 1.14% | 2.88% | 23.43% | |
73 Outperform | $1.79B | 14.01 | 5.61% | 4.16% | 7.45% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $1.80B | 14.66 | 8.67% | 2.53% | 14.80% | 226.31% | |
73 Outperform | $1.84B | 13.67 | 10.23% | 2.48% | 3.50% | 23.44% | |
68 Neutral | $1.81B | 51.30 | 4.09% | ― | 9.21% | 234.88% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $1.93B | 16.81 | 6.47% | 2.94% | 8.43% | -23.02% |
* Financial Sector Average
TFIN
Triumph Financial
76.01
24.66
48.02%
HOPE
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13.99
4.47
46.89%
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40.32
13.55
50.62%
TCBK
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57.27
17.28
43.23%
NBHC
National Bank Holdings
42.62
7.22
20.40%
BY
Byline Bancorp
38.83
13.19
51.44%
Triumph Financial Corporate Events
Dividends
Triumph Financial Declares Quarterly Dividend on Series C Preferred
Positive
May 29, 2026
On May 29, 2026, Triumph Financial, Inc. announced that its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $17.81 per share on its 7.125% Series C Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, equivalent to $0.44525 per depositary...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.