Triumph Financial (TFIN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.36B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 254.19K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 62.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.40
• Revenue Growth: 2.04%
• EPS Growth: -64.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,547
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.77
• Shares Outstanding: 23,793,964
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 312,204
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 254,188
• PEG Ratio: 0.82
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.87
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.22
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.82
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.24
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 23.31
• 1Y Price Target: $69.33
• Price Target Upside: 20.91% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.7
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $463.30M

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $59.00 ▲(2.90% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is primarily constrained by weakening profitability and deteriorating cash flow quality despite a solid, low-leverage balance sheet. Technical indicators also point to soft near-term momentum. A high P/E further pressures the risk/reward, while the latest earnings call provides a partial offset via improving margin trajectory, cost savings, and defined 2026 growth targets—tempered by execution and scale risks.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Triumph’s low and improving leverage, rising equity and a reported zero debt position in 2025 provide durable financial flexibility. A conservatively funded bank reduces liquidity and solvency risk, supports lending capacity to transportation clients, and underpins investment in payments growth over the next 2–6 months.

Payments & factoring margin expansion

Sustainably higher margins in payments and factoring reflect operating leverage from platform automation and pricing improvements. If management achieves >30% core payments margins and continued factoring expansion, these businesses can generate durable incremental cash flow and fund growth investments while improving return on capital.

Strategic network partnerships

Winning major freight players strengthens network effects and volume flow into Triumph’s payments ecosystem. Large partner relationships raise barriers to entry, support higher invoice monetization, and create a structural advantage in cross-sell and scale economics for payments and platform services over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Deteriorating cash flow quality

Two consecutive years of negative free cash flow and a slightly negative latest operating cash flow reduce internal funding for growth and make outcomes sensitive to execution or funding shifts. Persistent weak cash generation can constrain capital deployment and heighten reliance on external financing.

Weakened profitability and low ROE

Significant margin deterioration and very low returns on equity indicate impaired earnings power relative to historical levels. Persistently low ROE reduces reinvestment returns and limits the bank’s ability to generate shareholder value absent sustained margin recovery or structural gains in higher-margin payment segments.

Execution and scale risk in growth initiatives

Key growth engines are early-stage and small, making future revenue dependent on successful scaling and cross-sell. Low current adoption and ambitious growth targets create execution risk; failure to expand utilization or convert customers would limit durable margin and revenue uplift expectations.

Triumph Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Triumph Financial Inc., a financial and technology company, focuses on payments, factoring, and banking. It operates through a portfolio of brands, including TriumphPay, Triumph, and TBK Bank. The company offers cash flow management services for the trucking industry comprising invoice factoring, fuel discount programs, truck and cargo insurance, and equipment finance, banking, and treasury services. It also provides factoring products and services; insurance products and services; and equipment finance and asset based lending products and services. The company was formerly known as Triumph Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to Triumph Financial Inc. in December 2022. Triumph Financial Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Triumph Financial generates revenue primarily through its factoring services, where it purchases accounts receivable from trucking companies at a discount, providing immediate cash flow to its clients. This allows transportation businesses to meet their operational costs without waiting for customer payments. Additionally, TFIN earns money from interest and fees associated with its transportation financing products, including loans and credit lines. The company may also benefit from strategic partnerships with freight brokers and logistics companies that enhance its client base and service offerings. Revenue is further supplemented by ancillary services that support the financial needs of its customers.

Triumph Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is a clear positive (low and improving debt-to-equity and growing equity), but overall fundamentals are held back by materially weaker profitability since 2022 (sharp margin compression and low ROE) and deteriorating cash flow quality (negative free cash flow in 2024–2025 and slightly negative operating cash flow in the latest year). Confidence is further reduced by inconsistent 2025 revenue reporting in the provided data.

Income Statement

Profitability has weakened materially over time. Revenue grew from 2020 to 2022, but then turned uneven (down in 2023, modestly up in 2024). Margins compressed sharply: net profit margin fell from ~20–26% (2021–2022) to ~8.7% (2023) and ~3.3% (2024), and operating profitability followed a similar decline. The latest 2025 annual snapshot shows revenue recorded as zero (likely a data/reporting issue), but net income is positive; this inconsistency reduces confidence in the income-statement trend for the most recent period.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet appears solid and conservatively levered on the provided debt metrics. Debt-to-equity improved significantly versus 2020–2021 (roughly ~0.59–0.42) and is low in 2024 (~0.16), with 2025 showing zero debt reported. Equity has grown (from ~$727M in 2020 to ~$942M in 2025) while assets are broadly stable to modestly higher over the period. The main weakness is declining returns on equity from strong levels in 2021–2022 (~13% and ~11.5%) to low-single-digits in 2024–2025 (~1.8% to ~2.4%), indicating reduced efficiency in generating profits from the capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash flow quality deteriorated meaningfully. Operating cash flow was consistently positive and supportive in 2020–2023, but free cash flow turned negative in 2024 and remained negative in 2025, pointing to weaker cash generation after spending needs. The latest year also shows slightly negative operating cash flow, which is a concern for a bank’s underlying cash-producing capacity in the period. While earlier years showed healthy cash conversion (free cash flow positive and often a meaningful share of net income), the last two years reflect higher volatility and weaker coverage.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	516.08M	487.63M	471.85M	502.94M	442.00M
Gross Profit	433.05M	397.10M	406.05M	477.63M	432.46M
EBITDA	47.86M	53.82M	82.52M	166.29M	167.87M
Net Income	25.36M	16.09M	41.08M	102.31M	112.97M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.38B	5.95B	5.35B	5.33B	5.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	612.75M	416.91M	586.28M	662.69M	565.60M
Total Debt	0.00	142.01M	405.42M	179.30M	356.81M
Total Liabilities	5.44B	5.06B	4.48B	4.44B	5.10B
Stockholders Equity	941.77M	890.92M	864.40M	888.97M	858.86M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	50.62M	-28.59M	16.24M	63.58M	122.60M
Operating Cash Flow	67.06M	58.57M	60.06M	80.75M	136.96M
Investing Cash Flow	-525.48M	-590.03M	-129.56M	666.11M	77.66M
Financing Cash Flow	376.77M	574.94M	-52.05M	-721.87M	-145.83M

Triumph Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 57.34
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TFIN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 57.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.09, below the 50-day MA of 64.88, and below the 200-day MA of 59.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TFIN.

Triumph Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DCOM	70 Outperform	$1.45B	13.71	4.23%	3.14%	-1.79%	-23.87%
TCBK	70 Outperform	$1.57B	12.91	9.20%	2.83%	0.93%	5.65%
BY	69 Neutral	$1.45B	10.81	10.78%	1.34%	1.31%	2.02%
NBHC	68 Neutral	$1.83B	14.01	9.06%	3.07%	-2.46%	-1.98%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
HOPE	66 Neutral	$1.46B	23.18	2.65%	4.97%	-7.96%	-52.79%
TFIN	50 Neutral	$1.36B	62.00	1.11%	―	2.04%	-64.17%

Triumph Financial Corporate Events

Triumph Financial Declares Quarterly Series C Preferred Dividend

On February 27, 2026, Triumph Financial, Inc. announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $17.81 per share on its 7.125% Series C Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, equal to $0.44525 per depositary share representing a 1/40th interest in a preferred share. The dividend will be paid on March 30, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 15, 2026, underscoring the company’s ongoing capital return to preferred investors and signaling stability in its funding strategy within the transportation-focused financial services sector.

The move highlights Triumph’s efforts to maintain an attractive yield on its preferred securities while continuing to support its specialized role in freight-focused payments, factoring and banking solutions. For holders of the Series C preferred and related depositary shares, the scheduled payout provides predictable income and reflects the board’s confidence in the company’s financial position and its niche-focused growth model in transportation finance and technology.

The most recent analyst rating on (TFIN) stock is a Buy with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triumph Financial stock, see the TFIN Stock Forecast page.

Triumph Financial Declares Quarterly Dividend for Series C

On November 28, 2025, Triumph Financial announced a quarterly cash dividend of $17.81 per share on its 7.125% Series C Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, with a payment date set for December 30, 2025. This announcement underscores Triumph Financial’s commitment to providing returns to its shareholders and may impact its financial positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TFIN) stock is a Hold with a $52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triumph Financial stock, see the TFIN Stock Forecast page.