Trico Bancshares (TCBK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.57B
• Dividend Yield: 2.83%
• Average Volume (3M): 89.85K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 0.93%
• EPS Growth: 5.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,194
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.03
• Shares Outstanding: 32,511,646
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 83,112
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 89,849
• PEG Ratio: 1.76
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.53
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.34
• 1Y Price Target: $55.75
• Price Target Upside: 15.28% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.07
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $445.81M

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $53.00 ▲(9.59% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strengthened leverage profile, steady growth, and reliable cash generation), supported by reasonable valuation and positive shareholder-return actions (buyback/dividend). The main drag is weak near-term technical momentum with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative MACD.

Positive Factors

Improved balance-sheet leverage

A marked reduction in leverage materially strengthens loss-absorption capacity and liquidity. Lower debt-to-equity improves resilience to shocks, supports regulatory/commercial lending flexibility, and provides capacity for strategic investments or capital returns over the medium term.

Consistent cash generation

Reliable operating and free cash flow that track net income signals durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks, and loan growth. Consistent cash conversion reduces reliance on external financing and underpins financial flexibility across business cycles.

Strong shareholder-return track record

A long history of regular dividends plus an active repurchase program reflects disciplined capital allocation and consistent surplus capital generation. This institutionalizes shareholder returns and signals management confidence in long-term cash flow stability.

Negative Factors

Sustained margin compression

Material decline in net margins reduces core earnings power and indicates structural pressure from funding costs, portfolio mix, or competitive pricing. Persistently lower margins compress ROE and limit the pace at which the bank can scale profitable growth without efficiency gains.

Rising provisions / asset-quality pressure

Increasing provisions tied to higher non-performing assets signal emerging credit stress in the loan book. Elevated loss provisioning can erode earnings and capital over multiple quarters and may force tighter underwriting or slower loan growth to rebuild reserves.

Volatility in free-cash-flow growth

While FCF is positive, its uneven growth shows sensitivity to operating and working-capital swings. Such variability complicates multi-year planning for dividends, buybacks, and organic growth initiatives, making capital returns more dependent on cyclical performance.

Trico Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TriCo Bancshares operates as a bank holding company for Tri Counties Bank that provides commercial banking services to individual and corporate customers. The company accepts demand, savings, and time deposits. It also provides small business loans; real estate mortgage loans, such as residential and commercial loans; consumer loans; commercial loans, including agricultural loans; and real estate construction loans. In addition, the company offers treasury management services; and other customary banking services, including safe deposit boxes; and independent financial and broker-dealer services. It operates 61 traditional branches, 7 in-store branches, and 7 loan production offices in 31 counties throughout California. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Chico, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Trico Bancshares generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans, which constitutes the largest segment of its earnings. The bank extends various types of loans, including commercial, consumer, and real estate loans, charging interest that contributes significantly to overall revenue. Additionally, the company earns non-interest income from service fees, account maintenance charges, and investment management services. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance its customer base and drive deposits, which are crucial for funding loans and generating interest income. Moreover, asset management and investment services provide additional revenue streams, allowing the bank to diversify its income sources.

Trico Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid fundamentals overall: revenue expanded over 2020–2025 and earnings remain resilient. Balance-sheet strength improved meaningfully with sharply lower leverage and steadily rising equity. Offsetting factors include notable margin compression since 2021–2022 and a modest decline in ROE, while cash flow stayed consistently positive but with uneven growth.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded over the period (2020–2025), with a strong step-up in 2022–2023 and a more modest increase in 2024–2025. Profitability remains solid for a regional bank, but margins have compressed meaningfully from the 2021–2022 peak (net margin down from ~35%/30% to ~22–23% in 2024–2025), suggesting pressure from funding costs, mix, or credit normalization. Net income is relatively stable and near prior highs, but the trajectory is no longer improving at the same rate as earlier years.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved sharply: total debt and debt-to-equity declined materially from 2023 to 2025 (debt-to-equity falling from ~0.69 in 2023 to ~0.08 in 2025), which strengthens balance-sheet resilience. Equity has grown steadily over the period, supporting the asset base. Returns on equity remain healthy but have drifted down from the 2022–2023 range (~10–12%) to ~9% in 2024–2025, indicating slightly lower profitability on a larger capital base.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently positive across all periods, and free cash flow generally tracks net income closely (roughly ~96–100% of net income), which is a quality signal. However, free cash flow growth has been uneven—declining in 2023 and 2024 before rebounding strongly in 2025. Overall cash generation looks reliable, but the volatility in growth suggests sensitivity to working-capital/operating swings typical in banking cycles.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	533.31M	523.97M	492.81M	412.05M	334.90M
Gross Profit	404.52M	382.13M	387.14M	384.05M	336.17M
EBITDA	182.72M	171.17M	179.75M	192.29M	180.98M
Net Income	121.56M	114.87M	117.39M	125.42M	117.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.82B	9.67B	9.91B	9.93B	8.61B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.89B	152.79M	2.25B	2.56B	2.98B
Total Debt	107.51M	216.24M	794.52M	442.55M	184.53M
Total Liabilities	8.49B	8.45B	8.75B	8.88B	7.61B
Stockholders Equity	1.33B	1.22B	1.16B	1.05B	1.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	133.29M	105.15M	134.00M	159.27M	129.01M
Operating Cash Flow	133.29M	109.71M	138.89M	162.90M	132.21M
Investing Cash Flow	-82.63M	285.00M	28.57M	-723.22M	-883.81M
Financing Cash Flow	-38.60M	-348.45M	-175.98M	-100.86M	850.47M

Trico Bancshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 48.36
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCBK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 48.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.50, below the 50-day MA of 49.51, and above the 200-day MA of 44.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.22 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TCBK.

Trico Bancshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STBA	75 Outperform	$1.57B	11.90	9.35%	3.38%	-1.48%	-1.58%
TCBK	70 Outperform	$1.57B	12.91	9.20%	2.83%	0.93%	5.65%
NBHC	68 Neutral	$1.83B	14.01	9.06%	3.07%	-2.46%	-1.98%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GABC	66 Neutral	$1.57B	13.51	10.75%	2.89%	30.45%	3.13%
MBIN	58 Neutral	$1.99B	11.19	11.84%	1.19%	-2.45%	-28.20%
TFIN	50 Neutral	$1.36B	62.00	1.11%	―	2.04%	-64.17%

Trico Bancshares Corporate Events

TriCo Bancshares Declares 146th Consecutive Quarterly Dividend

On February 19, 2026, TriCo Bancshares’ board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share on its common stock, marking the company’s 146th consecutive quarterly cash dividend. The dividend, announced publicly on February 23, 2026, is payable on March 20, 2026 to shareholders of record as of March 6, 2026, underscoring the bank’s long record of returning capital to investors and highlighting its 50-year history of financial stability in the California banking market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCBK) stock is a Hold with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trico Bancshares stock, see the TCBK Stock Forecast page.

TriCo Bancshares Announces Strong Q4 Earnings and Buyback

On January 22, 2026, TriCo Bancshares reported preliminary, unaudited fourth quarter 2025 results showing net income of $33.6 million, or $1.03 per diluted share, nearly flat versus the prior quarter but up 15.8% from a year earlier, driven by higher net interest income and a 10-basis-point improvement in net interest margin to 4.02%. Loan balances rose 6.0% on an annualized basis from the prior quarter and 5.1% year over year, while deposits declined modestly from the prior quarter but increased 2.2% from the prior year, with average non-interest-bearing deposits comprising 31% of total deposits and helping to reduce the average cost of deposits to 1.29%. Key profitability and efficiency metrics remained solid, including a 1.34% return on average assets, a 10.02% return on average equity and an improved efficiency ratio of 54.68%, even as the provision for credit losses increased to $3.0 million amid higher non-performing assets. Against this backdrop, and signaling confidence in its financial position and long-term strategy, the company announced a new share repurchase program, which, alongside steady dividend payments, underscores an ongoing commitment to returning capital to shareholders while managing growth and operating expenses as it enters 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCBK) stock is a Buy with a $57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trico Bancshares stock, see the TCBK Stock Forecast page.