Triumph Financial (TFIN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.34B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 254.19K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 58.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.35
• Revenue Growth: 2.04%
• EPS Growth: -64.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,547
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.77
• Shares Outstanding: 23,793,964
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 312,204
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 254,188
• PEG Ratio: 0.82
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.87
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.22
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.82
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 22.79
• 1Y Price Target: $69.33
• Price Target Upside: 23.36% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.7
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $463.30M

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $62.00 ▲(10.32% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is primarily constrained by weakening profitability and deteriorating cash flow quality despite a solid, low-leverage balance sheet. Technical indicators also point to soft near-term momentum. A high P/E further pressures the risk/reward, while the latest earnings call provides a partial offset via improving margin trajectory, cost savings, and defined 2026 growth targets—tempered by execution and scale risks.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

Triumph’s low leverage and growing equity provide durable financial flexibility, lowering funding risk and supporting lending and platform investments. A conservatively levered bank can sustain shocks, finance growth initiatives, and support preferred dividend commitments without immediate capital raises.

Payments margin and monetization

Expanding core payments margins and higher invoice monetization indicate improved unit economics and scalable fee capture. Sustained margin gains and rising fee-bearing transaction share can drive structurally higher cash earnings as volumes scale and pricing/contract repricings take hold over 2–6 months and beyond.

Strategic network partnerships

Securing top freight participants strengthens network effects, raises barriers to entry, and supports long-term transaction volume growth. High-profile partners improve credibility with brokers/carriers and increase probability of sustained adoption and cross-sell across banking and payments offerings.

Negative Factors

Weak cash generation

Recent negative free cash flow and slipping operating cash flow reduce internal funding for growth and cushion for credit losses. Over several quarters this can force reliance on external funding or slower reinvestment, constraining balance-sheet deployment and product scaling.

Profitability and ROE compression

Material margin compression and collapsing ROE signal structural pressure on core banking and platform profitability. If margins do not sustainably recover, returns on capital remain weak, limiting ability to generate excess capital for growth, dividends, or buybacks over the medium term.

Execution, scale and product under-penetration risk

Key growth engines are still small and cross-sell penetration is low, creating execution risk if adoption lags. Non-core ABL exposure adds credit and strategic noise. Failure to scale these products or improve cross-sell would limit revenue diversification and margin upside over the next several quarters.

Triumph Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Triumph Financial Inc., a financial and technology company, focuses on payments, factoring, and banking. It operates through a portfolio of brands, including TriumphPay, Triumph, and TBK Bank. The company offers cash flow management services for the trucking industry comprising invoice factoring, fuel discount programs, truck and cargo insurance, and equipment finance, banking, and treasury services. It also provides factoring products and services; insurance products and services; and equipment finance and asset based lending products and services. The company was formerly known as Triumph Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to Triumph Financial Inc. in December 2022. Triumph Financial Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Triumph Financial generates revenue primarily through its factoring services, where it purchases accounts receivable from trucking companies at a discount, providing immediate cash flow to its clients. This allows transportation businesses to meet their operational costs without waiting for customer payments. Additionally, TFIN earns money from interest and fees associated with its transportation financing products, including loans and credit lines. The company may also benefit from strategic partnerships with freight brokers and logistics companies that enhance its client base and service offerings. Revenue is further supplemented by ancillary services that support the financial needs of its customers.

Triumph Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is a clear positive (low and improving debt-to-equity and growing equity), but overall fundamentals are held back by materially weaker profitability since 2022 (sharp margin compression and low ROE) and deteriorating cash flow quality (negative free cash flow in 2024–2025 and slightly negative operating cash flow in the latest year). Confidence is further reduced by inconsistent 2025 revenue reporting in the provided data.

Income Statement

Profitability has weakened materially over time. Revenue grew from 2020 to 2022, but then turned uneven (down in 2023, modestly up in 2024). Margins compressed sharply: net profit margin fell from ~20–26% (2021–2022) to ~8.7% (2023) and ~3.3% (2024), and operating profitability followed a similar decline. The latest 2025 annual snapshot shows revenue recorded as zero (likely a data/reporting issue), but net income is positive; this inconsistency reduces confidence in the income-statement trend for the most recent period.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet appears solid and conservatively levered on the provided debt metrics. Debt-to-equity improved significantly versus 2020–2021 (roughly ~0.59–0.42) and is low in 2024 (~0.16), with 2025 showing zero debt reported. Equity has grown (from ~$727M in 2020 to ~$942M in 2025) while assets are broadly stable to modestly higher over the period. The main weakness is declining returns on equity from strong levels in 2021–2022 (~13% and ~11.5%) to low-single-digits in 2024–2025 (~1.8% to ~2.4%), indicating reduced efficiency in generating profits from the capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash flow quality deteriorated meaningfully. Operating cash flow was consistently positive and supportive in 2020–2023, but free cash flow turned negative in 2024 and remained negative in 2025, pointing to weaker cash generation after spending needs. The latest year also shows slightly negative operating cash flow, which is a concern for a bank’s underlying cash-producing capacity in the period. While earlier years showed healthy cash conversion (free cash flow positive and often a meaningful share of net income), the last two years reflect higher volatility and weaker coverage.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	516.08M	487.63M	471.85M	502.94M	442.00M
Gross Profit	433.05M	397.10M	406.05M	477.63M	432.46M
EBITDA	47.86M	53.82M	82.52M	166.29M	167.87M
Net Income	25.36M	16.09M	41.08M	102.31M	112.97M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.38B	5.95B	5.35B	5.33B	5.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	612.75M	416.91M	586.28M	662.69M	565.60M
Total Debt	0.00	142.01M	405.42M	179.30M	356.81M
Total Liabilities	5.44B	5.06B	4.48B	4.44B	5.10B
Stockholders Equity	941.77M	890.92M	864.40M	888.97M	858.86M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	50.62M	-28.59M	16.24M	63.58M	122.60M
Operating Cash Flow	67.06M	58.57M	60.06M	80.75M	136.96M
Investing Cash Flow	-525.48M	-590.03M	-129.56M	666.11M	77.66M
Financing Cash Flow	376.77M	574.94M	-52.05M	-721.87M	-145.83M

Triumph Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 56.20
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TFIN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 56.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.64, below the 50-day MA of 63.00, and below the 200-day MA of 58.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TFIN.

Triumph Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DCOM	70 Outperform	$1.41B	10.17	4.23%	3.14%	-1.79%	-23.87%
TCBK	70 Outperform	$1.48B	11.42	9.20%	2.83%	0.93%	5.65%
BY	69 Neutral	$1.38B	9.46	10.78%	1.34%	1.31%	2.02%
NBHC	68 Neutral	$1.69B	22.62	8.05%	3.07%	-2.46%	-1.98%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
HOPE	66 Neutral	$1.39B	10.24	2.62%	4.97%	-7.96%	-52.79%
TFIN	50 Neutral	$1.34B	58.33	2.77%	―	2.04%	-64.17%

Triumph Financial Corporate Events

Triumph Financial Declares Quarterly Series C Preferred Dividend

On February 27, 2026, Triumph Financial, Inc. announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $17.81 per share on its 7.125% Series C Fixed-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, equal to $0.44525 per depositary share representing a 1/40th interest in a preferred share. The dividend will be paid on March 30, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 15, 2026, underscoring the company’s ongoing capital return to preferred investors and signaling stability in its funding strategy within the transportation-focused financial services sector.

The move highlights Triumph’s efforts to maintain an attractive yield on its preferred securities while continuing to support its specialized role in freight-focused payments, factoring and banking solutions. For holders of the Series C preferred and related depositary shares, the scheduled payout provides predictable income and reflects the board’s confidence in the company’s financial position and its niche-focused growth model in transportation finance and technology.

The most recent analyst rating on (TFIN) stock is a Buy with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Triumph Financial stock, see the TFIN Stock Forecast page.