National Bank Holdings (NBHC)
NYSE:NBHC
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National Bank Holdings
(NYSE:NBHC)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$44.00
▲(14.58% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial resilience (low leverage, growing equity, and steady recent cash generation) and a constructive earnings-call outlook with specific growth and margin targets. These positives are tempered by weak reported 2025 revenue/earnings trajectory and only neutral-to-soft near-term technical momentum, while valuation and dividend support the stock but are not enough to outweigh the operating-growth uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Conservative leverage
NBHC's materially lower debt-to-equity (falling to ~0.05 in 2025) and growing equity provide a durable capital buffer. Strong capital ratios improve loss-absorption capacity, support regulatory compliance, allow disciplined lending expansion, and underpin buybacks/dividends without excessive leverage.
Negative Factors
Sharp 2025 revenue decline
An 87.4% reported revenue drop in 2025 is a structural red flag: it erodes operating leverage, undermines trend visibility, and increases reliance on one-off items or post‑acquisition growth to restore topline momentum. Sustained profitability will require durable revenue recovery and execution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative leverage
NBHC's materially lower debt-to-equity (falling to ~0.05 in 2025) and growing equity provide a durable capital buffer. Strong capital ratios improve loss-absorption capacity, support regulatory compliance, allow disciplined lending expansion, and underpin buybacks/dividends without excessive leverage.
Read all positive factors
National Bank Holdings (NBHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.71B
Dividend Yield3.07%
Average Volume (3M)388.46K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.6
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth-2.46%
EPS Growth-1.98%
CountryUS
Employees1,259
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.60
Shares Outstanding45,013,622
10 Day Avg. Volume362,395
30 Day Avg. Volume388,465
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.71
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)2.49
P/FCF Ratio10.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.64
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.71
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$47.33Price Target Upside23.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)$543.97M
National Bank Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) is a bank holding company based in the United States, primarily focused on providing banking services through its subsidiary, National Bank of Kansas City. The company operates in the financial services se...
How the Company Makes Money
National Bank Holdings generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from net interest income, which is earned from the interest on loans provided to customers, minus the interest paid on deposits. Additionally,...
National Bank Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive tone driven by strong capital positions, a successful and rapid acquisition of Vista that expanded earning assets, solid loan origination momentum (including record commercial originations), completion of 2UniFi Phase 1 and a clear multi-year earnings target (> $1 in Q4 2026; > $4 in 2027). Credit metrics improved and management deliberately addressed problem loans to start 2026 with a clean slate. Offsetting items include several meaningful one-time charges in Q4, elevated 2026 expense guidance (reflecting a full year of Vista and integration costs), ongoing 2UniFi losses and partnership timing uncertainty, and modest near-term margin/repricing volatility. Overall, highlights (capital, margin recovery, deal execution, strong originations and product launch) outweigh the manageable but material lowlights (one-time charges, elevated provisions and higher 2026 expense guidance).Positive Updates
Tangible Book and Capital Growth
Tangible book value per share grew 10% in 2025; Common Equity Tier 1 ratio strengthened to 14.89% (14.9% reported). Tangible common equity (TCE) ratio ended the year at 11% and Tier 1 leverage was 11.6%, signaling a strong capital base.
Negative Updates
Elevated One-Time Acquisition and Securities Losses
Fourth quarter included $4.1 million after-tax acquisition costs and a $2.6 million after-tax loss on a strategic sale of investment securities (the sale was executed to remain below $10 billion in assets). These were material one-time items impacting Q4 results.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Tangible Book and Capital Growth
Tangible book value per share grew 10% in 2025; Common Equity Tier 1 ratio strengthened to 14.89% (14.9% reported). Tangible common equity (TCE) ratio ended the year at 11% and Tier 1 leverage was 11.6%, signaling a strong capital base.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided detailed 2026 guidance driven by the combined organization: starting loans of roughly $9.4B and projected loan growth of ~10% (earning asset growth 7–10%), a fully taxable-equivalent net interest margin around 4% (December spot margin 3.97%, Vista December margin 4%, 2025 NIM 3.94%, Q4 FTE NIM 3.89%), target asset mix of ~15% cash & investments, a target loan-to-deposit ratio of ~90%, and total noninterest income of $75–80M; 2UniFi is expected to contribute $2–4M of revenue in 2026 while holding 2UniFi expense flat at ~$22M (with ~50% of 2026 expense as depreciation), overall noninterest expense of $320–330M (H1 guide $165–170M), and onetime acquisition/rebranding and possible CECL day‑1 items in 2026; credit metrics include nonperforming assets at 36 bps of loans (improved 11 bps in 2025), criticized loans improving 73 bps, net charge-offs 34 bps, allowance to loans 1.18% (planning to maintain ~1.2% coverage, plus $16.8M marks providing ~23 bps incremental coverage), capital ratios TCE 11%, Tier 1 leverage 11.6%, CET1 ~14.9%, an expected effective tax rate ~20%, 2026 share count ~45.8M, and a financial outlook of >$1.00 EPS in Q4 2026 (setting up >$4.00 EPS in 2027).National Bank Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 583.94M | 594.31M | 553.56M | 346.52M | 306.15M |
| Gross Profit | 403.97M | 394.68M | 411.80M | 291.94M | 301.62M |
| EBITDA | 164.51M | 169.44M | 199.46M | 102.63M | 128.56M |
| Net Income | 109.57M | 118.81M | 142.05M | 71.27M | 93.61M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.88B | 9.81B | 9.95B | 9.57B | 7.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 945.70M | 655.39M | 819.65M | 901.79M | 1.54B |
| Total Debt | 71.89M | 123.41M | 413.83M | 459.10M | 62.25M |
| Total Liabilities | 8.50B | 8.50B | 8.74B | 8.48B | 6.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.39B | 1.31B | 1.21B | 1.09B | 840.11M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 132.50M | 120.68M | 130.10M | 202.20M | 179.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 162.42M | 155.27M | 166.94M | 214.63M | 179.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 186.49M | 64.66M | -404.03M | -752.14M | -473.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -59.70M | -284.41M | 230.90M | -114.20M | 528.99M |
National Bank Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
38.40
Price Trends
40.06
Negative
38.91
Negative
38.16
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.58
Positive
38.23
Neutral
40.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBHC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 38.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.07, below the 50-day MA of 40.06, and above the 200-day MA of 38.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NBHC.
National Bank Holdings Risk Analysis
National Bank Holdings disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Bank Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Bank Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $1.50B | 11.18 | 9.25% | 3.38% | -1.48% | -1.58% | |
70 Outperform | $1.50B | 12.64 | 9.20% | 2.83% | 0.93% | 5.65% | |
68 Neutral | $1.71B | 22.62 | 8.05% | 3.07% | -2.46% | -1.98% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $1.40B | 10.24 | 2.62% | 4.97% | -7.96% | -52.79% | |
58 Neutral | $1.94B | 5.76 | 9.89% | 1.19% | -2.45% | -28.20% | |
50 Neutral | $1.32B | 58.33 | 2.77% | ― | 2.04% | -64.17% |
* Financial Sector Average
NBHC
National Bank Holdings
37.94
0.87
2.36%
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STBA
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TCBK
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TFIN
Triumph Financial
55.67
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MBIN
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42.27
5.70
15.57%
National Bank Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
National Bank Holdings Aligns Leadership After Vista Acquisition
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
National Bank Holdings Corporation, a regional banking group offering commercial, specialty and business banking services, is continuing to build scale and capabilities following its acquisition of Vista Bancshares, Inc., which closed on January 7...
Private Placements and Financing
National Bank Holdings Issues $150 Million Subordinated Notes
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
On February 9, 2026, National Bank Holdings Corporation entered an underwriting agreement with Piper Sandler Co. and subsequently issued $150 million of 5.875% fixed-to-floating rate subordinated notes due 2036 at par, with the offering closing o...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
National Bank Holdings Updates Q4 2025 Investor Presentation
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, National Bank Holdings Corporation posted an updated investor presentation for the fourth quarter of 2025 on its website for use in meetings with investors, analysts and other stakeholders. The materials, furnished via a curr...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
National Bank Holdings closes Vista Bancshares acquisition, expands footprint
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On January 7, 2026, National Bank Holdings Corporation completed its previously announced acquisition of Texas-based Vista Bancshares, Inc., merging Vista into NBHC and subsequently combining Vista Bank with NBH Bank, which remains the surviving b...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
National Bank Holdings Prepares Fixed Income Investor Presentation
Neutral
Feb 4, 2026
National Bank Holdings Corporation announced it expects to begin making presentations to current and prospective investors on or after February 5, 2026, using a fixed income investor deck prepared for rating discussions with Moody’s Investor...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
National Bank Holdings boosts dividend and buyback program
Positive
Jan 27, 2026
On January 27, 2026, National Bank Holdings Corporation reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $16.0 million, or $0.42 per diluted share, down from the prior quarter, with adjusted earnings of $22.7 million, or $0.60 per share, after excluding...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
National Bank Holdings Completes Vista Bancshares Acquisition
Positive
Jan 7, 2026
On January 7, 2026, National Bank Holdings Corporation completed its acquisition of Vista Bancshares, Inc. and the merger of Vista Bank into NBH Bank, in a stock-and-cash transaction valued at approximately $377.4 million based on NBHC’s Jan...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
National Bank Holdings clears approvals for Vista acquisition
Positive
Dec 23, 2025
On December 23, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation announced it had secured all required regulatory approvals, including from the Federal Reserve and the Colorado Division of Banking, for its previously announced acquisition of Vista Bancsha...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.