National Bank Holdings (NBHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.51B
• Dividend Yield: 3%
• Average Volume (3M): 388.46K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.83
• Revenue Growth: -2.46%
• EPS Growth: -1.98%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,259
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.96
• Shares Outstanding: 37,829,910
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 362,395
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 388,465
• PEG Ratio: -0.81
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.77
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.96
• 1Y Price Target: $44.50
• Price Target Upside: 15.89% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $44.00 ▲(14.58% Upside)

National Bank Holdings Corporation scores well due to its strong financial performance, positive technical indicators, and strategic growth initiatives highlighted in the earnings call. The company's valuation is reasonable with an attractive dividend yield. The merger with Vista Bancshares is a significant positive, expected to enhance market position and operational capabilities. However, some challenges in revenue generation and competition from private credit are noted.

Positive Factors

Merger with Vista Bancshares

The merger with Vista Bancshares is a strategic move to strengthen NBHC's market position, particularly in Texas, enhancing its operational capabilities and expanding its service offerings, which is expected to drive long-term growth.

Improved Credit Quality

Improved credit quality, demonstrated by a reduction in nonperforming loans, indicates better risk management and financial health, which supports long-term stability and profitability.

Deposit Growth

The increase in deposits signifies customer trust and provides a stable funding source for lending activities, supporting NBHC's growth and financial stability over the long term.

Negative Factors

Revenue Challenges

The decline in revenue growth poses a challenge for NBHC, potentially impacting its ability to sustain profitability and necessitating strategic adjustments to improve revenue streams.

Private Credit Competition

Competition from private credit can erode NBHC's market share and pressure margins, requiring strategic responses to maintain competitive positioning and profitability.

2UniFi Expenses

Rising expenses related to the 2UniFi initiative could strain NBHC's cost structure, impacting profitability unless offset by corresponding revenue growth or efficiency gains.

National Bank Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) is a bank holding company based in the United States, primarily focused on providing banking services through its subsidiary, National Bank of Kansas City. The company operates in the financial services sector, offering a range of products including commercial banking, consumer banking, and wealth management services. NBHC caters to both individual and business clients, providing services such as loans, deposits, treasury management, and investment advisory solutions.

How the Company Makes Money

National Bank Holdings generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from net interest income, which is earned from the interest on loans provided to customers, minus the interest paid on deposits. Additionally, the bank earns non-interest income from various fees associated with services such as account maintenance, transaction processing, and wealth management advisory services. The bank may also generate revenue through investments in securities and other financial instruments. Partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance its service offerings and customer acquisition, further contributing to its earnings. Economic factors, such as interest rates and market conditions, also play a significant role in the bank's overall profitability.

National Bank Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Bank Holdings demonstrates a solid financial position with strong profitability and a stable balance sheet. While the income statement shows some revenue challenges, the company maintains healthy margins. The balance sheet is well-managed with low leverage, and cash flow generation is improving. Overall, the financial health of the company is commendable, with room for growth in revenue generation.

Income Statement

National Bank Holdings shows a stable income statement with consistent profitability. The Gross Profit Margin and Net Profit Margin are strong, indicating efficient cost management. However, the recent revenue decline in TTM suggests potential challenges in revenue generation. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio, indicating prudent financial leverage. The Return on Equity is satisfactory, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability and low risk.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend in Free Cash Flow growth, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is low, suggesting potential inefficiencies in converting income to cash. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong, highlighting effective cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	589.09M	594.31M	553.56M	346.52M	306.15M	353.91M
Gross Profit	401.33M	394.68M	411.80M	291.94M	301.62M	311.22M
EBITDA	175.41M	169.44M	199.46M	102.63M	128.56M	123.85M
Net Income	121.72M	118.81M	142.05M	71.27M	93.61M	88.59M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.15B	9.81B	9.95B	9.57B	7.21B	6.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.17B	655.39M	819.65M	901.79M	1.54B	1.27B
Total Debt	76.05M	123.41M	413.83M	459.10M	62.25M	22.90M
Total Liabilities	8.78B	8.50B	8.74B	8.48B	6.37B	5.84B
Stockholders Equity	1.37B	1.31B	1.21B	1.09B	840.11M	820.69M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	140.67M	120.68M	130.10M	202.20M	179.50M	-10.56M
Operating Cash Flow	170.79M	155.27M	166.94M	214.63M	179.50M	-6.21M
Investing Cash Flow	286.28M	64.66M	-404.03M	-752.14M	-473.84M	-152.59M
Financing Cash Flow	-82.31M	-284.41M	230.90M	-114.20M	528.99M	654.18M

National Bank Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 38.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.95, above the 50-day MA of 37.10, and above the 200-day MA of 37.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.39 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.53 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBHC.

National Bank Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STBA	80 Outperform	$1.61B	12.18	9.35%	3.27%	-1.48%	-1.58%
NBHC	79 Outperform	$1.51B	12.64	9.06%	3.00%	-2.46%	-1.98%
TCBK	78 Outperform	$1.62B	14.01	9.20%	2.78%	0.93%	5.65%
MBIN	72 Outperform	$1.69B	8.46	11.84%	1.10%	-2.45%	-28.20%
HOPE	69 Neutral	$1.47B	28.95	2.19%	4.88%	-7.96%	-52.79%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
TFIN	67 Neutral	$1.49B	220.41	1.11%	―	2.04%	-64.17%

National Bank Holdings Corporate Events

National Bank Holdings Updates Investor Presentation

On November 3, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) released an updated investor presentation on its website, which will be used in future discussions with investors and analysts. The presentation, which is not filed with the SEC, outlines NBHC’s business plans, growth opportunities, and financial strategies, highlighting potential risks and uncertainties, including the acquisition of Vista Bancshares, Inc. The release emphasizes the importance of investors reviewing the registration statement and related documents for detailed information about the proposed transaction.

National Bank Holdings Increases Quarterly Dividend by 3.3%

On October 29, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation announced a 3.3% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, raising it from $0.30 to $0.31 per share. This decision reflects the company’s commitment to delivering attractive shareholder returns and aligns with its strategic acquisition of Vista Bancshares, Inc. The dividend will be payable on December 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of November 28, 2025, and underscores the company’s strong financial position and strategic growth initiatives.

National Bank Holdings Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

On October 21, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation announced its third-quarter financial results, reporting a net income increase to $35.3 million and earnings of $0.92 per diluted share. The company maintained a strong net interest margin and credit quality, with a notable improvement in non-performing loans. Additionally, NBHC is preparing to close a strategic acquisition of Vista Bancshares, expected to enhance its market position in Texas and expand its banking services. The acquisition, valued at approximately $365.4 million, is anticipated to close in the first quarter of 2026, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals.

National Bank Holdings Announces Merger with Vista Bancshares

On September 15, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) announced a merger agreement with Vista Bancshares, Inc., where Vista will merge into NBHC, and Vista Bank will merge into NBH Bank. This strategic move, unanimously approved by both companies’ boards, aims to enhance NBHC’s market position and operational capabilities. The merger will result in the conversion of Vista’s common stock into cash and NBHC shares, with specific adjustments to ensure economic equivalence. The merger is expected to close by January 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and shareholder votes, and includes provisions for employee benefits and director appointments post-merger.

National Bank Holdings Announces Merger with Vista Bancshares

On September 15, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) announced a merger agreement with Vista Bancshares, Inc., expanding its presence in the high-growth Texas markets, particularly the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. The merger, valued at $369.1 million, is expected to be accretive to NBHC’s earnings by 17% and is projected to close in Q1 2026. This strategic partnership aims to enhance NBHC’s market position as a premier regional bank, offering expanded banking services and career opportunities while maintaining Vista Bank’s brand in Texas.