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National Bank Holdings (NBHC)
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National Bank Holdings (NBHC) AI Stock Analysis

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NBHC

National Bank Holdings

(NYSE:NBHC)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$43.00
▲(3.42% Upside)
National Bank Holdings' overall score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights. The valuation is attractive, and technical indicators suggest stable momentum. However, challenges in loan and deposit balances slightly offset these strengths.

National Bank Holdings (NBHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

National Bank Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNational Bank Holdings Corporation operates as the bank holding company for NBH Bank that provides various banking products and financial services to commercial, business, and consumer clients in the United States. It offers deposit products, including checking, savings, money market, and other deposit accounts, including fixed-rate and fixed maturity time deposits. The company also provides commercial and industrial loans and leases, such as working capital loans, equipment loans, lender finance loans, food and agriculture loans, government and non-profit loans, owner occupied commercial real estate loans, and other commercial loans and leases; non-owner occupied commercial real estate loans consisting of loans on commercial properties, such as office buildings, warehouse/distribution buildings, multi-family, hospitality, and retail buildings; small business administration loans to support manufacturers, distributors, and service providers; term loans, line of credits, and real estate secured loans; residential real estate loans; and consumer loans. In addition, it offers treasury management solutions comprising online and mobile banking, commercial credit card, wire transfer, automated clearing house, electronic bill payment, lock box, remote deposit capture, merchant processing, cash vault, controlled disbursements, and fraud prevention services, as well as other auxiliary services, including account reconciliation, collections, repurchase accounts, zero balance accounts, and sweep accounts. As of January 20, 2022, the company operated through a network of 81 banking centers located in Colorado, the greater Kansas City region, New Mexico, Utah, and Texas. It also operates 121 ATMs. The company was formerly known as NBH Holdings Corp. and changed its name to National Bank Holdings Corporation in March 2012. National Bank Holdings Corporation was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyNBHC generates revenue through various channels, primarily by earning interest from loans made to customers, including personal, business, and mortgage loans. The interest income from these loans is a significant revenue stream. Additionally, the bank earns non-interest income from fees associated with services such as account maintenance, transaction fees, and investment services. Mortgage origination and servicing fees also contribute to revenue, particularly during favorable housing market conditions. Furthermore, NBHC's partnerships with local businesses and community organizations help to enhance its customer base and drive deposit growth, which is crucial for funding its lending activities. Overall, the company focuses on maintaining a diversified revenue model to mitigate risks associated with fluctuations in interest rates and economic conditions.

National Bank Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced outlook with significant achievements in earnings, loan production, and cost management. However, there were challenges with declining loan balances and deposits. The successful launch of 2 Unifi and strong noninterest income growth provide positive momentum for the future.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Earnings and Return Metrics
The company delivered earnings of $0.88 per share, with a 14.2% return on tangible equity and a 1.5% return on assets.
Successful Loan Production and Pricing
Loan fundings reached $323 million, a 26% increase over the first quarter. New loan originations had a weighted average yield of 7.4%.
Effective Cost Management
The company reduced its annualized personnel expense run rate by 10% and implemented an efficient expense reduction plan.
Strong Net Interest Margin
Maintained a strong net interest margin of 3.95%, with a 2 basis point expansion during the quarter.
Positive Noninterest Income Growth
Noninterest income increased by 11% from the first quarter and 22% from the previous year.
Successful Launch of 2 Unifi
Successfully launched Release 1 of 2 Unifi in the Apple app store, with positive user feedback and strong security measures.
Negative Updates
Decline in Loan Balances
Loan balances declined due to elevated loan paydowns and strategic portfolio reductions within targeted industries.
Deposit Decline
Average deposit balances declined by $58.8 million during the quarter due to seasonal tax outflows and relationship banking.
Lower Loan Portfolio in Higher-Risk Sectors
Reduced exposure in trucking, agricultural, and commercial real estate sectors, impacting overall loan portfolio size.
Company Guidance
During National Bank Holdings Corporation's 2025 Second Quarter Earnings Call, the company reported earnings of $0.88 per share, a return on tangible equity of 14.2%, and a return on assets of 1.5%. The bank achieved a net interest margin of 3.95%, fueled by disciplined loan and deposit pricing. Loan fundings for the quarter totaled $323 million, while loan exposure in higher-risk industries, such as trucking and commercial real estate, was reduced. Despite a decrease in average deposit balances by $58.8 million due to seasonal tax outflows, the cost of deposits was maintained at 2.05%. Nonperforming loans decreased to $33.3 million, with a nonperforming loan ratio of 0.45%. The bank's allowance to total loans ratio remained steady at 1.2%. Noninterest income rose to $17.1 million, and noninterest expenses were $62.9 million, reflecting a strategic reduction in personnel expenses by approximately 10%. The bank also successfully launched its new platform, 2 Unifi, in the Apple app store, with an Android launch expected on July 30. For the second half of 2025, the bank projects mid-single-digit loan growth, a net interest margin in the mid-3.9% range, noninterest income between $34 million and $36 million, and noninterest expenses between $126 million and $128 million.

National Bank Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
National Bank Holdings exhibits strong financial health with solid profitability, a strong balance sheet, and robust cash flow generation. The company's low leverage and efficient operations position it well within the industry, although attention should be paid to monitoring revenue trends moving forward.
Income Statement
75
Positive
National Bank Holdings shows strong profitability with a steady gross profit margin and net profit margin. The company experienced revenue growth from 2022 to 2024 but faced a small revenue decline in TTM versus 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust, indicating efficient operations.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting low leverage. Return on equity is strong, reflecting effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio is stable, indicating a solid capital structure.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Operating cash flow remains positive and has grown over time, supporting strong free cash flow generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating good cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests efficient conversion of profits into cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue592.41M594.31M553.56M346.52M306.15M353.91M
Gross Profit394.84M394.68M411.80M291.94M301.62M311.22M
EBITDA170.41M169.44M199.46M102.63M128.56M123.85M
Net Income119.45M118.81M142.05M71.27M93.61M88.59M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.00B9.81B9.95B9.57B7.21B6.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments928.43M655.39M819.65M901.79M1.54B1.27B
Total Debt257.90M123.41M413.83M459.10M62.25M22.90M
Total Liabilities8.65B8.50B8.74B8.48B6.37B5.84B
Stockholders Equity1.35B1.31B1.21B1.09B840.11M820.69M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow133.54M120.68M130.10M202.20M179.50M-10.56M
Operating Cash Flow165.36M155.27M166.94M214.63M179.50M-6.21M
Investing Cash Flow-8.16M64.66M-404.03M-752.14M-473.84M-152.59M
Financing Cash Flow-5.71M-284.41M230.90M-114.20M528.99M654.18M

National Bank Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price41.58
Price Trends
50DMA
38.38
Positive
100DMA
37.57
Positive
200DMA
39.04
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.34
Negative
RSI
70.09
Negative
STOCH
61.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.91, above the 50-day MA of 38.38, and above the 200-day MA of 39.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.09 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBHC.

National Bank Holdings Risk Analysis

National Bank Holdings disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Bank Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

National Bank Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
1.47B13.319.41%2.90%1.15%-0.39%
74
Outperform
1.47B11.289.06%3.40%-0.57%-3.92%
72
Outperform
$1.48B12.549.15%2.84%0.60%-6.31%
71
Outperform
1.39B30.471.88%4.99%-12.55%-59.97%
67
Neutral
1.36B135.551.49%2.02%-60.54%
65
Neutral
1.45B6.9411.59%1.18%3.49%-30.76%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NBHC
National Bank Holdings
41.58
0.82
2.01%
HOPE
Hope Bancorp
11.23
-0.90
-7.42%
STBA
S&T Bancorp
39.28
-2.20
-5.30%
TCBK
Trico Bancshares
46.48
4.57
10.90%
TFIN
Triumph Financial
56.50
-25.35
-30.97%
MBIN
Merchants Bancorp
33.00
-11.72
-26.21%

National Bank Holdings Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
National Bank Holdings Announces Merger with Vista Bancshares
Positive
Sep 15, 2025

On September 15, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) announced a merger agreement with Vista Bancshares, Inc., expanding its presence in the high-growth Texas markets, particularly the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. The merger, valued at $369.1 million, is expected to be accretive to NBHC’s earnings by 17% and is projected to close in Q1 2026. This strategic partnership aims to enhance NBHC’s market position as a premier regional bank, offering expanded banking services and career opportunities while maintaining Vista Bank’s brand in Texas.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBHC) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Bank Holdings stock, see the NBHC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
National Bank Holdings Highlights Strategic Focus in Q2 2025
Positive
Aug 14, 2025

National Bank Holdings Corporation has announced its intention to use and make available certain materials for meetings with investors and analysts, highlighting their strategic focus and financial performance. The announcement underscores the company’s strong market positioning, with a robust balance sheet as of the second quarter of 2025, including total assets of $10 billion and total deposits of $8.3 billion. The company’s operations are supported by its presence in attractive markets, which are ranked highly for economic performance and business opportunities, potentially benefiting stakeholders through sustained growth and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBHC) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Bank Holdings stock, see the NBHC Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
National Bank Holdings Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
Aug 4, 2025

On August 4, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation’s Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share, payable on September 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of August 29, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s commitment to delivering value to its shareholders and may impact its financial performance and investor relations positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBHC) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Bank Holdings stock, see the NBHC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 18, 2025