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National Bank Holdings (NBHC)
NYSE:NBHC

National Bank Holdings (NBHC) AI Stock Analysis

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National Bank Holdings

(NYSE:NBHC)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$41.00
▲(9.36%Upside)
National Bank Holdings is well-positioned with strong financial health, characterized by profitability, a solid balance sheet, and robust cash flow generation. Valuation metrics indicate fair value with an attractive dividend yield. Technical analysis suggests potential for price recovery, despite current bearish indicators. Earnings call information and corporate events are not available, thus not factored in.

National Bank Holdings (NBHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

National Bank Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNational Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) is a bank holding company headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado. It operates primarily through its wholly-owned subsidiary, NBH Bank, which provides a comprehensive range of financial products and services to both individual and business clients. NBHC offers traditional banking services, including checking and savings accounts, personal and business loans, mortgages, wealth management, and investment advisory services. The company primarily serves communities in the Midwest and Southwest regions of the United States.
How the Company Makes MoneyNational Bank Holdings Corporation generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is interest income from loans and advances made to individuals and businesses. This includes income from mortgages, personal loans, and commercial loans. The bank also earns interest from its investment portfolio, which includes various securities. In addition to interest income, NBHC generates non-interest income through fees and service charges on deposit accounts, wealth management services, and investment advisory fees. The company may also earn revenue from treasury management services, which are offered to its commercial clients. Partnerships with other financial service providers can contribute additional revenue through referral fees or joint product offerings. Overall, NBHC's profitability is influenced by factors such as interest rate environments, loan demand, and economic conditions in its operating regions.

National Bank Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 3.22%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a generally positive sentiment, with strong net interest income growth, increased tangible book value, and effective deposit management. However, these positives were offset by challenges including a significant loss from the investment security sale and concerns in the transportation sector. The ongoing investment in 2UniFi also represents a substantial expense.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Net Interest Income Growth
The company delivered 11.3% annualized net interest income growth during the quarter with a strong net interest margin of 3.99%.
Tangible Book Value Increase
Tangible book value grew 11% during 2024.
Capital Ratios
Exited the year with a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 13.2% and a TCE ratio of 10.2%.
Positive Loan Funding
Loan fundings during the quarter totaled $480 million, among the highest loan production quarters in the company's history.
Deposit Strategy Success
A 22 basis point reduction in the cost of deposits contributed to net margin expansion.
Negative Updates
Investment Security Sale Loss
A strategic sale of investment securities resulted in an after-tax loss of $5 million.
Transportation Sector Concerns
Weakness was noted in the transportation space, a minor segment of the portfolio, leading to some non-performing assets.
Noninterest Income Decline
Total noninterest income for the fourth quarter was impacted by $6.6 million of pretax losses on investment security sales.
2UniFi Expenses
2025 projected noninterest expenses include significant investment in 2UniFi, amounting to $27 million to $29 million.
Company Guidance
During the fourth quarter earnings call for National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC), the company provided several key metrics and guidance for the upcoming year. For Q4 2024, NBHC reported net income of $28.2 million, equating to $0.73 per diluted share. Adjusting for a one-time securities sale loss, net income was $33.2 million or $0.86 per diluted share, with an adjusted return on average tangible common equity of 14.4%. The net interest margin expanded to 3.99%, and the company achieved a 13.5% annualized growth in pre-provision net revenue. Looking ahead to 2025, NBHC projects mid-single-digit loan growth and aims to maintain the net interest margin in the high 3.9% range. Total noninterest income is expected to be between $72 million and $77 million, while noninterest expenses are projected to range from $272 million to $278 million, including significant investment in their 2UniFi initiative. Additionally, the effective tax rate is anticipated to be around 19%, and the bank plans to grow beyond $10 billion in total assets, driven by both loan and investment portfolio increases.

National Bank Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
National Bank Holdings demonstrates strong revenue growth, robust gross profit margins, and a solid equity base. However, the decrease in net profit margin and return on equity indicates potential areas for improvement.
Income Statement
75
Positive
National Bank Holdings shows a strong revenue growth with a 28.1% increase from 2023 to 2024 and robust gross profit margins consistently at 100% due to its business model. EBIT margin improved significantly to 98.7% in 2024, indicating efficient operations. However, net profit margin decreased from 33.8% in 2023 to 22.1% in 2024, suggesting rising expenses or strategic investments affecting net income.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company maintains a solid equity base with an equity ratio of 13.3% in 2024, reflecting strong financial health and stability. The absence of total debt in 2024 is a positive indicator of low leverage. Return on equity decreased to 9.1% in 2024 from 11.7% in 2023, suggesting room for improved profitability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Free cash flow increased by 19.3% from 2023 to 2024, demonstrating effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.31 in 2024 indicates strong cash generation relative to earnings. However, the cash flow from financing activities is negative, which could indicate repayment of liabilities or strategic investments.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue590.47M594.31M553.56M346.52M306.15M353.91M
Gross Profit385.07M394.68M411.80M291.94M301.62M311.22M
EBITDA160.71M169.44M199.46M102.63M128.56M123.85M
Net Income111.57M118.81M142.05M71.27M93.61M88.59M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.10B9.81B9.95B9.57B7.21B6.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments880.67M655.39M819.65M901.79M1.54B1.27B
Total Debt155.34M123.41M413.83M459.10M62.25M22.90M
Total Liabilities8.77B8.50B8.74B8.48B6.37B5.84B
Stockholders Equity1.33B1.31B1.21B1.09B840.11M820.69M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow125.66M120.68M130.10M202.20M179.50M-10.56M
Operating Cash Flow164.94M155.27M166.94M214.63M179.50M-6.21M
Investing Cash Flow-156.44M64.66M-404.03M-752.14M-473.84M-152.59M
Financing Cash Flow-55.13M-284.41M230.90M-114.20M528.99M654.18M

National Bank Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price37.49
Price Trends
50DMA
36.48
Positive
100DMA
37.88
Negative
200DMA
40.65
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.16
Negative
RSI
56.67
Neutral
STOCH
83.02
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.68, above the 50-day MA of 36.48, and below the 200-day MA of 40.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.02 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBHC.

National Bank Holdings Risk Analysis

National Bank Holdings disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Bank Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

National Bank Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$1.46B10.969.84%3.58%1.26%-1.92%
77
Outperform
$1.42B12.727.40%1.99%-0.58%-3.02%
75
Outperform
$1.43B12.958.68%3.20%1.63%-16.82%
75
Outperform
$1.47B15.728.85%2.97%16.91%-12.55%
74
Outperform
$1.86B14.828.14%-5.67%-44.11%
72
Outperform
$1.52B10.7612.84%2.46%9.30%15.19%
67
Neutral
$16.66B11.449.71%3.92%11.61%-10.70%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NBHC
National Bank Holdings
37.49
-0.84
-2.19%
SRCE
1St Source
61.84
9.63
18.44%
GABC
German American Bancorp
39.09
5.39
15.99%
STBA
S&T Bancorp
38.01
5.99
18.71%
CUBI
Customers Bancorp
58.98
10.77
22.34%
STEL
Stellar Bancorp
28.06
5.98
27.08%

National Bank Holdings Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
National Bank Holdings Announces Investor Meeting Materials
Neutral
May 2, 2025

National Bank Holdings Corporation has announced its intention to use and make available certain materials for investor and analyst meetings, reflecting its ongoing commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement. The release includes forward-looking statements, highlighting potential risks and uncertainties in the financial services industry, which could impact NBHC’s operations and market positioning.

Financial Disclosures
National Bank Holdings Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Apr 22, 2025

On April 22, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, reporting a net income of $24.2 million and earnings per diluted share of $0.63. The results were affected by a $10.2 million provision expense due to a loan charge-off involving suspected fraud. Despite this, the company maintained a solid net interest margin and improved its non-performing loan ratios. The bank’s strong capital position was recognized by Forbes as one of the best banks in the United States, with a Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 13.6%.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 24, 2025