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National Bank Holdings (NBHC)
NYSE:NBHC
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National Bank Holdings (NBHC) AI Stock Analysis

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NBHC

National Bank Holdings

(NYSE:NBHC)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$41.00
▲(13.45% Upside)
National Bank Holdings maintains a strong financial foundation with effective financial management and strategic initiatives. While technical indicators suggest caution, the company's valuation, earnings call insights, and corporate events support a positive outlook. Key strengths include a robust net interest margin and strategic partnerships, countering concerns over loan and deposit declines.

National Bank Holdings (NBHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

National Bank Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNational Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) is a bank holding company headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado. It operates primarily through its wholly-owned subsidiary, NBH Bank, which provides a comprehensive range of financial products and services to both individual and business clients. NBHC offers traditional banking services, including checking and savings accounts, personal and business loans, mortgages, wealth management, and investment advisory services. The company primarily serves communities in the Midwest and Southwest regions of the United States.
How the Company Makes MoneyNational Bank Holdings Corporation generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is interest income from loans and advances made to individuals and businesses. This includes income from mortgages, personal loans, and commercial loans. The bank also earns interest from its investment portfolio, which includes various securities. In addition to interest income, NBHC generates non-interest income through fees and service charges on deposit accounts, wealth management services, and investment advisory fees. The company may also earn revenue from treasury management services, which are offered to its commercial clients. Partnerships with other financial service providers can contribute additional revenue through referral fees or joint product offerings. Overall, NBHC's profitability is influenced by factors such as interest rate environments, loan demand, and economic conditions in its operating regions.

National Bank Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -7.83%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance for the second quarter, with notable achievements in net interest margin expansion, loan production, and the successful launch of 2 Unifi. However, there were challenges with declining loan balances and deposit outflows. Despite these issues, the bank's strategic actions and expense reduction initiatives indicate a positive outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Net income of $34 million with earnings of $0.88 per diluted share. Return on average tangible assets was 1.5%, and return on average tangible common equity was 14.2%.
Net Interest Margin Expansion
Net interest margin expanded by 2 basis points to 3.95%. Fully taxable equivalent net interest income grew by 4.7% compared to the second quarter of last year.
Loan Production and Pricing Discipline
$323 million in loan fundings, with new loan originations at a weighted average yield of 7.4%. The bank showed pricing discipline in loan and deposit pricing.
Successful Launch of 2 Unifi
Successfully launched Release 1 of 2 Unifi in the Apple app store, with positive user feedback and solid initial activity.
Expense Reduction Initiatives
Reduced core bank annualized personnel expense run rate by 10%, with future projections to continue growing quarterly pre-provision net revenue.
Noninterest Income Growth
Noninterest income for the second quarter totaled $17.1 million, 11% higher than the first quarter and 22% higher than the second quarter of last year.
Negative Updates
Decline in Loan Balances
Due to elevated loan paydowns and strategic portfolio reductions within targeted industries, there was a decline in loan balances during the quarter.
Deposit Decline
Seasonal tax outflows resulted in a decline in average deposit balances of $58.8 million during the quarter.
Higher-Risk Industry Exposure Reduction
The bank decreased exposure in the trucking, agricultural, and commercial real estate sectors, impacting loan balances.
Company Guidance
During the National Bank Holdings Corporation's 2025 second-quarter earnings call, the management provided several financial metrics and future guidance. In the second quarter, the bank reported earnings of $0.88 per diluted share, with a return on tangible equity of 14.2% and a return on assets of 1.5%. The net interest margin was strong at 3.95%, supported by disciplined loan and deposit pricing. Loan fundings reached $323 million, although overall loan balances declined due to reductions in certain high-risk industries. The allowance to total loans ratio remained stable at 1.2%, while nonperforming loans decreased to $33.3 million. For the rest of 2025, the bank projects mid-single-digit loan growth and maintains its net interest margin guidance in the mid-3.9% range, excluding potential Fed rate changes. On expenses, efforts to streamline operations led to a 10% reduction in the annualized personnel expense run rate, projecting noninterest expenses for the second half of the year to be between $126 million and $128 million, inclusive of $16 million to $17 million related to the new 2 Unifi app. The tangible book value year-to-date grew by 10.7% to $26.64.

National Bank Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
National Bank Holdings exhibits strong financial health with solid profitability, a strong balance sheet, and robust cash flow generation. The company's low leverage and efficient operations position it well within the industry, although attention should be paid to monitoring revenue trends moving forward.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
National Bank Holdings shows strong profitability with a steady gross profit margin and net profit margin. The company experienced revenue growth from 2022 to 2024 but faced a small revenue decline in TTM versus 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust, indicating efficient operations.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting low leverage. Return on equity is strong, reflecting effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio is stable, indicating a solid capital structure.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Operating cash flow remains positive and has grown over time, supporting strong free cash flow generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating good cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests efficient conversion of profits into cash.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue594.31M553.56M346.52M306.15M353.91M
Gross Profit394.68M411.80M291.94M301.62M311.22M
EBITDA169.44M199.46M102.63M128.56M123.85M
Net Income118.81M142.05M71.27M93.61M88.59M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.81B9.95B9.57B7.21B6.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments655.39M819.65M901.79M1.54B1.27B
Total Debt123.41M413.83M459.10M62.25M22.90M
Total Liabilities8.50B8.74B8.48B6.37B5.84B
Stockholders Equity1.31B1.21B1.09B840.11M820.69M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow120.68M130.10M202.20M179.50M-10.56M
Operating Cash Flow155.27M166.94M214.63M179.50M-6.21M
Investing Cash Flow64.66M-404.03M-752.14M-473.84M-152.59M
Financing Cash Flow-284.41M230.90M-114.20M528.99M654.18M

National Bank Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price36.14
Price Trends
50DMA
37.84
Negative
100DMA
37.24
Negative
200DMA
40.37
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.57
Positive
RSI
36.34
Neutral
STOCH
22.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBHC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 36.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.54, below the 50-day MA of 37.84, and below the 200-day MA of 40.37, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NBHC.

National Bank Holdings Risk Analysis

National Bank Holdings disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Bank Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

National Bank Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$1.96B15.128.17%-7.39%-45.67%
78
Outperform
$1.48B13.517.12%1.94%-2.85%-0.33%
78
Outperform
$1.45B14.689.80%2.98%22.42%-5.59%
77
Outperform
$1.38B11.719.15%3.17%0.60%-6.08%
71
Outperform
$1.39B10.679.47%3.73%-0.56%
68
Neutral
$1.45B10.2012.49%2.54%6.43%11.69%
62
Neutral
C$15.22B6.6519.04%5.62%32.98%-40.14%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NBHC
National Bank Holdings
36.54
-2.22
-5.73%
SRCE
1St Source
58.84
3.18
5.71%
GABC
German American Bancorp
38.19
1.72
4.72%
STBA
S&T Bancorp
36.39
-2.13
-5.53%
CUBI
Customers Bancorp
62.64
16.71
36.38%
STEL
Stellar Bancorp
28.52
4.43
18.39%

National Bank Holdings Corporate Events

Dividends
National Bank Holdings Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
Aug 4, 2025

On August 4, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation’s Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share, payable on September 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of August 29, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s commitment to delivering value to its shareholders and may impact its financial performance and investor relations positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBHC) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Bank Holdings stock, see the NBHC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
National Bank Holdings Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results
Positive
Jul 22, 2025

On July 22, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reporting a significant increase in net income and earnings per share compared to the previous quarter. The company highlighted a strong net interest margin and a disciplined approach to credit, resulting in minimal net charge-offs. The launch of 2UniFi, a new financial ecosystem, is expected to enhance business owners’ access to banking services. The company’s capital ratios remain robust, providing flexibility for growth opportunities, while asset quality shows stability with no provision expense for credit losses recorded in the quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBHC) stock is a Buy with a $51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Bank Holdings stock, see the NBHC Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
National Bank Holdings Partners with Nav Technologies
Positive
Jul 21, 2025

On July 21, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation announced a strategic partnership with Nav Technologies, Inc. to enhance services for small and medium-sized businesses through the 2UniFi financial ecosystem. This collaboration will integrate 2UniFi into Nav’s marketplace, providing small business owners with improved access to deposit and lending solutions. Additionally, NBHC made a $5 million investment in Nav, with CEO Tim Laney joining Nav’s board as an observer. The partnership aims to empower small businesses with essential financial tools and insights, potentially strengthening NBHC’s market position and expanding its reach within the U.S. banking system.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBHC) stock is a Buy with a $51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Bank Holdings stock, see the NBHC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 05, 2025