National Bank Holdings (NBHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.55B
• Dividend Yield: 3.07%
• Average Volume (3M): 388.46K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.83
• Revenue Growth: -2.46%
• EPS Growth: -1.98%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,259
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.96
• Shares Outstanding: 37,829,910
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 362,395
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 388,465
• PEG Ratio: -0.81
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.77
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.96
• 1Y Price Target: $42.00
• Price Target Upside: 9.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $45.00 ▲(17.19% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial stability and profitability (especially balance sheet strength), supported by a favorable valuation and positive earnings momentum with improving credit quality. Technicals are constructive, while the main watch-items are revenue/loan-growth headwinds and execution risk/costs tied to the Vista integration and ongoing expense initiatives.

Positive Factors

Robust balance sheet

A conservatively leveraged, well-capitalized balance sheet supports resilience through credit cycles, funds organic growth and acquisitions, and preserves regulatory capital headroom. This underpins long-term stability, enabling dividend support and strategic investments without stressing liquidity.

Improving credit quality

Sustained reductions in nonperforming loans and a low NPL ratio signal durable asset-quality improvement, lowering potential credit losses and provisioning needs. Better credit metrics enhance net income stability and increase capacity for measured loan growth over the medium term.

Scale via Vista acquisition

Completed acquisition materially increases franchise scale, diversifies geographic footprint into high-growth Texas and Florida markets, and boosts deposit base. Greater scale can improve funding stability, revenue diversification, and cost efficiency when successfully integrated over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Recent revenue decline

A declining top line implies pressure on core revenue drivers such as loan growth and fee income. If persistent, revenue weakness can compress operating leverage, limit reinvestment capacity, and make achievement of margin and ROE targets more difficult over the next several quarters.

Loan-growth headwinds

Heavy CRE payoffs and competition from private credit structurally reduce or slow bank-originated loan pipelines and pricing power. Over months, this can cap loan book expansion, limit net interest income growth, and force greater emphasis on fee businesses or pricing to retain market share.

Integration and elevated expenses

Ongoing initiative and merger-related costs (technology, rebranding, systems conversions) create execution risk and can depress near-term efficiency ratios. If synergies or cost savings lag, persistent elevated expenses can erode the expected profitability benefits of scale from acquisitions.

National Bank Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) is a bank holding company based in the United States, primarily focused on providing banking services through its subsidiary, National Bank of Kansas City. The company operates in the financial services sector, offering a range of products including commercial banking, consumer banking, and wealth management services. NBHC caters to both individual and business clients, providing services such as loans, deposits, treasury management, and investment advisory solutions.

How the Company Makes Money

National Bank Holdings generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from net interest income, which is earned from the interest on loans provided to customers, minus the interest paid on deposits. Additionally, the bank earns non-interest income from various fees associated with services such as account maintenance, transaction processing, and wealth management advisory services. The bank may also generate revenue through investments in securities and other financial instruments. Partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance its service offerings and customer acquisition, further contributing to its earnings. Economic factors, such as interest rates and market conditions, also play a significant role in the bank's overall profitability.

National Bank Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Bank Holdings demonstrates a solid financial position with strong profitability and a stable balance sheet. While the income statement shows some revenue challenges, the company maintains healthy margins. The balance sheet is well-managed with low leverage, and cash flow generation is improving. Overall, the financial health of the company is commendable, with room for growth in revenue generation.

Income Statement

National Bank Holdings shows a stable income statement with consistent profitability. The Gross Profit Margin and Net Profit Margin are strong, indicating efficient cost management. However, the recent revenue decline in TTM suggests potential challenges in revenue generation. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio, indicating prudent financial leverage. The Return on Equity is satisfactory, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability and low risk.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend in Free Cash Flow growth, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is low, suggesting potential inefficiencies in converting income to cash. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong, highlighting effective cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	589.09M	594.31M	553.56M	346.52M	306.15M	353.91M
Gross Profit	401.33M	394.68M	411.80M	291.94M	301.62M	311.22M
EBITDA	175.41M	169.44M	199.46M	102.63M	128.56M	123.85M
Net Income	121.72M	118.81M	142.05M	71.27M	93.61M	88.59M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.15B	9.81B	9.95B	9.57B	7.21B	6.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.17B	655.39M	819.65M	901.79M	1.54B	1.27B
Total Debt	76.05M	123.41M	413.83M	459.10M	62.25M	22.90M
Total Liabilities	8.78B	8.50B	8.74B	8.48B	6.37B	5.84B
Stockholders Equity	1.37B	1.31B	1.21B	1.09B	840.11M	820.69M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	140.67M	120.68M	130.10M	202.20M	179.50M	-10.56M
Operating Cash Flow	170.79M	155.27M	166.94M	214.63M	179.50M	-6.21M
Investing Cash Flow	286.28M	64.66M	-404.03M	-752.14M	-473.84M	-152.59M
Financing Cash Flow	-82.31M	-284.41M	230.90M	-114.20M	528.99M	654.18M

National Bank Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 38.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.40, above the 50-day MA of 38.27, and above the 200-day MA of 37.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.95 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBHC.

National Bank Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STBA	80 Outperform	$1.55B	11.69	9.35%	3.38%	-1.48%	-1.58%
NBHC	78 Outperform	$1.55B	12.93	9.06%	3.07%	-2.46%	-1.98%
TCBK	78 Outperform	$1.60B	13.88	9.20%	2.83%	0.93%	5.65%
MBIN	72 Outperform	$1.62B	8.13	11.84%	1.19%	-2.45%	-28.20%
HOPE	69 Neutral	$1.50B	29.53	2.19%	4.97%	-7.96%	-52.79%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
TFIN	67 Neutral	$1.64B	243.00	1.11%	―	2.04%	-64.17%

National Bank Holdings Corporate Events

National Bank Holdings Completes Vista Bancshares Acquisition

On January 7, 2026, National Bank Holdings Corporation completed its acquisition of Vista Bancshares, Inc. and the merger of Vista Bank into NBH Bank, in a stock-and-cash transaction valued at approximately $377.4 million based on NBHC’s January 6, 2026 closing share price. Vista shareholders received a mix of NBHC Class A common stock and $31.62 in cash per share, will own about 16% of NBHC on a fully diluted basis, and are also entitled to related option and warrant cash-outs, with a portion of the cash consideration held in escrow pending a tangible common equity adjustment. With the deal closed, NBHC’s pro forma balance sheet rises to roughly $12.6 billion in assets and $10.7 billion in deposits, and the combined organization gains an enlarged presence in high-growth markets including Dallas–Fort Worth, Austin, Lubbock and Palm Beach; NBHC plans to adopt the Vista Bank brand in Texas and roll it out enterprise-wide later this year, except at Bank of Jackson Hole, with systems integration slated for the third quarter of 2026. The transaction also brings Vista veteran Kirk A. McLaughlin onto NBHC’s board, while Chairman and CEO G. Timothy Laney and President Aldis Birkans received sizable restricted stock awards tied in part to achieving successful integration, rebranding and cost-savings targets, underscoring the strategic importance of the Vista deal to NBHC’s growth ambitions and regional competitive positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBHC) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Bank Holdings stock, see the NBHC Stock Forecast page.

National Bank Holdings clears approvals for Vista acquisition

On December 23, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation announced it had secured all required regulatory approvals, including from the Federal Reserve and the Colorado Division of Banking, for its previously announced acquisition of Vista Bancshares, Inc. and the merger of Vista Bank into NBH Bank. Vista shareholders approved the deal on December 19, 2025, and the parties plan to close the transaction on January 7, 2026, with systems conversion slated for the third quarter of 2026. The acquisition will add approximately $2.5 billion in assets, including $1.9 billion in loans and $2.2 billion in deposits as of September 30, 2025, expanding NBHC’s presence in key Texas markets and Palm Beach, Florida, and bringing the combined company to about $12.6 billion in pro forma assets and $10.7 billion in pro forma deposits, marking a significant scale-up of its regional community banking platform.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBHC) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Bank Holdings stock, see the NBHC Stock Forecast page.

National Bank Holdings Updates Investor Presentation

On November 3, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) released an updated investor presentation on its website, which will be used in future discussions with investors and analysts. The presentation, which is not filed with the SEC, outlines NBHC’s business plans, growth opportunities, and financial strategies, highlighting potential risks and uncertainties, including the acquisition of Vista Bancshares, Inc. The release emphasizes the importance of investors reviewing the registration statement and related documents for detailed information about the proposed transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBHC) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Bank Holdings stock, see the NBHC Stock Forecast page.

National Bank Holdings Increases Quarterly Dividend by 3.3%

On October 29, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation announced a 3.3% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, raising it from $0.30 to $0.31 per share. This decision reflects the company’s commitment to delivering attractive shareholder returns and aligns with its strategic acquisition of Vista Bancshares, Inc. The dividend will be payable on December 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of November 28, 2025, and underscores the company’s strong financial position and strategic growth initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBHC) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Bank Holdings stock, see the NBHC Stock Forecast page.

National Bank Holdings Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

On October 21, 2025, National Bank Holdings Corporation announced its third-quarter financial results, reporting a net income increase to $35.3 million and earnings of $0.92 per diluted share. The company maintained a strong net interest margin and credit quality, with a notable improvement in non-performing loans. Additionally, NBHC is preparing to close a strategic acquisition of Vista Bancshares, expected to enhance its market position in Texas and expand its banking services. The acquisition, valued at approximately $365.4 million, is anticipated to close in the first quarter of 2026, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBHC) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Bank Holdings stock, see the NBHC Stock Forecast page.