National Bank Holdings (NBHC)
NYSE:NBHC
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National Bank Holdings
(NYSE:NBHC)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$46.00
▲(8.54% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/13/26
The score is driven primarily by fundamentally sound profitability and a conservative balance sheet, tempered by weak recent cash flow conversion. The latest earnings call was notably positive on growth, margin stability, capital strength, and integration progress, while technicals and valuation appear neutral-to-moderate and do not materially elevate the overall profile.
Positive Factors
Sustained Loan Growth / Scale
Rapid, repeatable loan originations driven by organic activity plus the Vista acquisition materially increased earning assets and scale. Durable loan growth supports recurring net interest income, expands cross-sell opportunities across new markets, and raises long‑term revenue potential even after integration.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Conversion
A large decline in free cash flow and cash conversion reduces the quality and sustainability of reported earnings. Over months this constrains internal funding for investments, dividends and buybacks, elevates reliance on balance sheet flexibility, and weakens confidence in earnings durability if not remediated.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Loan Growth / Scale
Rapid, repeatable loan originations driven by organic activity plus the Vista acquisition materially increased earning assets and scale. Durable loan growth supports recurring net interest income, expands cross-sell opportunities across new markets, and raises long‑term revenue potential even after integration.
Read all positive factors
National Bank Holdings (NBHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.87B
Dividend Yield3.07%
Average Volume (3M)388.46K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.8
Beta (1Y)0.87
Revenue Growth3.09%
EPS Growth-7.54%
CountryUS
Employees1,259
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.77
Shares Outstanding44,790,820
10 Day Avg. Volume362,395
30 Day Avg. Volume388,465
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.71
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)2.49
P/FCF Ratio10.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.71
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.65
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$49.50Price Target Upside16.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)3.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$546.72M
National Bank Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National Bank Holdings Corporation operates as the bank holding company for NBH Bank that provides various banking products and financial services to commercial, business, and consumer clients in the United States. It offers deposit products, incl...
How the Company Makes Money
NBHC primarily makes money through (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income. Net interest income is earned from the spread between interest income on earning assets (such as commercial loans, consumer loans, and securities held for inves...
National Bank Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 21, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated multiple strong operational and financial achievements — record loan originations, double-digit loan growth, margin expansion, higher net interest income and strong capital ratios — alongside expected short-term noise from acquisition-related one-time costs, early-stage monetization of Unifi, and modestly elevated annualized charge-offs. Management reiterated conservative but achievable guidance (10% loan growth, NIM near 4%, fee income $75–$80M), emphasized integration progress and synergy realization (post July systems conversion), and affirmed a target of >$1 EPS in Q4 driven by earning asset growth, fee pickup and expense synergies. Overall, positives around growth, margin, capital and integration momentum substantially outweigh the near-term challenges and one-time costs.Positive Updates
Record Loan Originations and Strong Loan Growth
Record quarterly loan fundings of $805 million; loan balances increased $2.2 billion (29% quarter-over-quarter) with $285 million of organic loan growth and $1.9 billion acquired in the Vista transaction; delivered annualized loan growth of 12.4% and entered Q2 with robust loan pipelines.
Negative Updates
Acquisition and Restructuring One-time Costs
Q1 included $15.3 million of acquisition and restructuring costs (reported in net interest expense) and additional onetime merger-related expenses largely in salary and benefits; 2026 noted as a noisy expense year with bulk of synergies post-systems conversion (end of July).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Loan Originations and Strong Loan Growth
Record quarterly loan fundings of $805 million; loan balances increased $2.2 billion (29% quarter-over-quarter) with $285 million of organic loan growth and $1.9 billion acquired in the Vista transaction; delivered annualized loan growth of 12.4% and entered Q2 with robust loan pipelines.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to roughly 10% full‑year loan growth (Q1 annualized loan growth was 12.4%; Q1 fundings $805M; Q1 loan balances +$2.2B/+29%, including $285M organic and $1.9B acquired), and said net interest margin should remain near 4% (Q1 NIM 4.06%), supporting FTE net interest income momentum (Q1 FTE NII $111M). They expect full‑year fee income of $75–80M (including $2–4M of Unifi revenue weighted to H2), total noninterest expense of $320–330M (Unifi spend $22M with ~ $10M cash burn), and to realize the bulk of Vista expense synergies after the end‑July systems conversion; management reiterated a target of >$1 EPS in Q4 (Q1 adjusted EPS $0.72). Capital and liquidity guidance: deposits financed growth (Q1 cost of deposits ~1.94%, spot low‑190s; loan‑to‑deposit 91.9%), CET1 12.5%, total capital 15.8%, tangible book $26; credit metrics expected to remain strong (Q1 provision $4M, NCOs 8 bps/34 bps annualized, allowance coverage 1.18% plus $24M marks ≈25 bps incremental coverage).National Bank Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
81
Very Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 616.83M | 583.94M | 594.31M | 553.56M | 346.52M | 306.15M |
| Gross Profit | 435.98M | 403.97M | 394.68M | 411.80M | 291.94M | 301.62M |
| EBITDA | 154.27M | 164.51M | 169.44M | 199.46M | 102.63M | 128.56M |
| Net Income | 106.14M | 109.57M | 118.81M | 142.05M | 71.27M | 93.61M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.61B | 9.88B | 9.81B | 9.95B | 9.57B | 7.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.08B | 945.70M | 655.39M | 819.65M | 901.79M | 1.54B |
| Total Debt | 219.13M | 71.89M | 123.41M | 413.83M | 459.10M | 62.25M |
| Total Liabilities | 10.95B | 8.50B | 8.50B | 8.74B | 8.48B | 6.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.66B | 1.39B | 1.31B | 1.21B | 1.09B | 840.11M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 22.56M | 132.50M | 120.68M | 130.10M | 202.20M | 179.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 65.96M | 162.42M | 155.27M | 166.94M | 214.63M | 179.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 360.52M | 186.49M | 64.66M | -404.03M | -752.14M | -473.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -199.99M | -59.70M | -284.41M | 230.90M | -114.20M | 528.99M |
National Bank Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
42.38
Price Trends
40.98
Positive
40.44
Positive
38.86
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Positive
47.17
Neutral
44.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBHC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 42.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.62, above the 50-day MA of 40.98, and above the 200-day MA of 38.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NBHC.
National Bank Holdings Risk Analysis
National Bank Holdings disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Bank Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Bank Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.62B | 12.17 | 9.35% | 3.38% | 2.41% | 3.01% | |
77 Outperform | $1.62B | 12.42 | 9.87% | 2.83% | 2.52% | 15.48% | |
69 Neutral | $1.87B | 14.82 | 7.35% | 3.07% | 3.09% | -7.54% | |
69 Neutral | $1.60B | 23.68 | 2.96% | 4.97% | 0.06% | -33.52% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $1.70B | 53.66 | 3.40% | ― | 6.29% | 220.03% | |
59 Neutral | $2.17B | 9.32 | 10.12% | 1.19% | -5.09% | -24.74% |
* Financial Sector Average
NBHC
National Bank Holdings
41.20
6.35
18.23%
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TFIN
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National Bank Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
National Bank Holdings Shareholders Approve Updated Incentive Plan
Positive
May 12, 2026
At its May 7, 2026 annual meeting, National Bank Holdings shareholders approved an amended and restated 2023 Omnibus Incentive Plan, increasing the pool of Class A common shares available for awards to 2,525,000 and eliminating the recycling of sh...
Dividends
National Bank Holdings Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend Payment
Positive
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, National Bank Holdings Corporation announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share on its Class A common stock. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on June 15, 2026, to shareholders of r...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
National Bank Holdings Updates Q1 2026 Investor Presentation
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, National Bank Holdings Corporation released an updated first-quarter 2026 investor presentation, which it plans to use in communications with investors and analysts, and clarified that the materials are being furnished rather than ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
National Bank Holdings Posts Strong Q1 2026 Earnings Growth
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
National Bank Holdings Corporation reported that in the first quarter of 2026, net income rose 29.7% year over year to $20.8 million, or $0.46 per diluted share, with adjusted net income of $32.6 million, or $0.72 per share, as higher net interest...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
National Bank Holdings Aligns Leadership After Vista Acquisition
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
National Bank Holdings Corporation, a regional banking group offering commercial, specialty and business banking services, is continuing to build scale and capabilities following its acquisition of Vista Bancshares, Inc., which closed on January 7...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.