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Telefonica
(OTC:TELFY)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-2.20% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing net losses, negative ROE, and elevated leverage), despite resilient operating profitability and solid—but declining—free cash flow. Earnings-call updates add support via upgraded cash-flow guidance and debt reduction, while technicals are mixed (above the 20-day but below key medium-term averages). Valuation is helped by the high dividend yield, but the negative P/E underscores that profitability is still a key risk.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & upgraded cash-flow guidance
Telefónica converts strong operating cash flow into meaningful free cash flow (TTM ~€9.3bn OCF; ~€4.2bn FCF) and raised 2026 adjusted operating cash flow after leases guidance to >3%. Durable cash generation supports capex, dividends and ongoing debt reduction in a capital-intensive industry.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage despite improvement
Leverage remains a structural constraint: although net debt has fallen and recent financing lowered interest costs, debt ratios (debt/equity ~2.9x; net‑debt/EBITDA ~2.7x) are elevated versus pre‑2025 levels. This limits balance‑sheet flexibility and increases refinancing and investment risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & upgraded cash-flow guidance
Telefónica converts strong operating cash flow into meaningful free cash flow (TTM ~€9.3bn OCF; ~€4.2bn FCF) and raised 2026 adjusted operating cash flow after leases guidance to >3%. Durable cash generation supports capex, dividends and ongoing debt reduction in a capital-intensive industry.
Read all positive factors
Telefonica (TELFY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.96B
Dividend Yield8.38%
Average Volume (3M)132.41K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.16
Revenue Growth-4.35%
EPS Growth-54.53%
CountryUS
Employees82,655
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.58
Shares Outstanding5,670,161,600
10 Day Avg. Volume175,713
30 Day Avg. Volume132,415
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.90
Price to Sales (P/S)0.58
P/FCF Ratio4.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$38.13B
Telefonica Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Telefónica, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Europe and Latin America. The company offers mobile and related services and products, including mobile voice, value added, mobile data and internet, wholesa...
How the Company Makes Money
Telefónica primarily makes money by selling recurring telecommunications services and related digital offerings. The largest revenue streams typically come from: (1) mobile services, where customers pay monthly subscription fees (postpaid) or usag...
Telefonica Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear operational momentum in Spain and Brazil, improved group profitability and cash flow metrics, a net-debt reduction and an upgraded adjusted operating cash flow after leases target (over 3%). These positives were tempered by material challenges in Germany and at VMO2 — including sharp handset-related revenue declines, restructuring charges and elevated leverage at the UK JV — plus seasonal free cash flow headwinds. Overall, the company presented stronger execution and upgraded cash-flow guidance while acknowledging localized disruption that management is actively addressing.Positive Updates
Group profitability and cash flow improvement
Adjusted EBITDA grew +2.7% year-on-year in Q2; adjusted operating cash flow after leases increased +2.9% year-on-year. Free cash flow improved sequentially to EUR 611m in the quarter (EUR 278m higher vs Q1) and reached EUR 944m in the first half of 2026.
Negative Updates
Germany revenue weakness driven by handset decline
Telefónica Deutschland revenue declined >11% year-on-year in Q2, primarily due to handset sales falling ~26% and headwinds in the partner business. Mobile service revenue was impacted by partner-related headwinds and lower handset volumes.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group profitability and cash flow improvement
Adjusted EBITDA grew +2.7% year-on-year in Q2; adjusted operating cash flow after leases increased +2.9% year-on-year. Free cash flow improved sequentially to EUR 611m in the quarter (EUR 278m higher vs Q1) and reached EUR 944m in the first half of 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Telefónica upgraded its 2026 adjusted operating cash flow after leases guidance from “over 2%” to “over 3%,” while maintaining adjusted EBITDA guidance (previous full‑year EBITDA growth range ~1.5–2.5%) and expecting to be at the high end of that EBITDA range but at the low end of its revenue‑growth range due to weaker handset sales; service revenue grew ~0.9–1.0% in H1. Free cash flow was EUR 611m in Q2 (EUR 944m H1), up EUR 278m sequentially and described as back‑end loaded with acceleration expected in H2; adjusted EBITDA and adjusted operating cash flow after leases increased ~+2.7% and +2.9% respectively, operating cash flow after leases margin rose +0.4 pp YoY, and CapEx/revenue remained 11.6% (flat YoY). Net financial debt fell to EUR 25.3bn with net‑debt/EBITDA around 2.68–2.78x (target 2.5x by 2028), interest cost down to 2.95% from 3.23% L12M; VMO2 confirmed 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance; B2B revenue +6.7% and B2C +1.4%; and the 2026 dividend was set at EUR 0.15 payable June 2027.Telefonica Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 35.11B | 33.73B | 41.31B | 40.65B | 39.99B | 39.28B |
| Gross Profit | 2.59B | 2.50B | 28.76B | 20.23B | 27.84B | 27.79B |
| EBITDA | 10.63B | 8.48B | 12.35B | 10.34B | 14.79B | 22.52B |
| Net Income | -3.28B | -4.15B | -49.00M | -892.00M | 2.01B | 8.14B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 88.60B | 91.98B | 100.50B | 104.32B | 109.64B | 109.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.60B | 7.43B | 9.26B | 7.67B | 8.54B | 10.66B |
| Total Debt | 41.69B | 49.45B | 45.02B | 44.12B | 45.39B | 48.17B |
| Total Liabilities | 70.28B | 81.72B | 77.75B | 77.23B | 77.93B | 80.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.68B | 6.71B | 19.35B | 21.85B | 25.09B | 22.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.17B | 4.48B | 5.20B | 5.93B | 5.41B | 4.18B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.29B | 9.34B | 10.99B | 12.59B | 11.76B | 12.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.16B | -4.58B | -5.22B | -4.63B | -5.33B | 6.97B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.01B | -5.98B | -4.67B | -7.77B | -7.92B | -15.35B |
Telefonica Technical Analysis
Positive
4.09
Price Trends
4.18
Positive
4.29
Negative
4.15
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
56.14
Neutral
74.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TELFY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.18, below the 50-day MA of 4.18, and below the 200-day MA of 4.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TELFY.
Telefonica Risk Analysis
Telefonica disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Telefonica reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Telefonica Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $18.10B | 14.44 | 9.70% | 5.69% | 16.10% | 24.13% | |
71 Outperform | $14.39B | 15.12 | 13.16% | 8.52% | -3.37% | -27.49% | |
67 Neutral | $71.45B | 13.34 | 21.99% | 2.28% | 13.40% | 75.68% | |
62 Neutral | $37.57B | -72.18 | -0.79% | 3.59% | 16.69% | 87.12% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
59 Neutral | $20.94B | 3.96 | 30.43% | ― | -1.50% | 4.45% | |
51 Neutral | $23.96B | -6.33 | -24.69% | 8.73% | -4.35% | -54.53% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TELFY
Telefonica
4.27
-1.04
-19.53%
AMX
America Movil
23.45
4.82
25.88%
CHTR
Charter Communications
154.27
-113.53
-42.39%
TLK
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
14.84
-4.04
-21.41%
VIV
Telefonica Brasil
11.41
-0.31
-2.63%
VOD
Vodafone
16.42
5.19
46.19%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.