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Telefonica
(OTC:TELFY)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(1.78% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/01/26
The score is held down primarily by pressured profitability (TTM net loss) and elevated leverage/negative ROE, despite strong operating and free cash flow. Technicals also detract as the stock trades below key moving averages. A high dividend yield provides some valuation support, but the negative P/E reflects ongoing losses.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent positive operating cash flow (~$10B TTM) and free cash flow (~$4.8B TTM) provide durable internal funding for network capex, maintenance, dividends or debt servicing. This cash resilience cushions the business against accounting losses and supports strategic flexibility over months.
Negative Factors
High leverage and elevated debt
Substantial gross debt (~$42.1B) and an elevated debt-to-equity ratio limit financial flexibility, raise interest and refinancing risk, and constrain capital allocation choices. High leverage amplifies downside in weaker demand environments and slows ability to deleverage quickly.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent positive operating cash flow (~$10B TTM) and free cash flow (~$4.8B TTM) provide durable internal funding for network capex, maintenance, dividends or debt servicing. This cash resilience cushions the business against accounting losses and supports strategic flexibility over months.
Read all positive factors
Telefonica (TELFY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.64B
Dividend Yield7.47%
Average Volume (3M)212.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.16
Revenue Growth-5.91%
EPS Growth-104.62%
CountryUS
Employees82,175
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.61
Shares Outstanding5,670,161,600
10 Day Avg. Volume162,284
30 Day Avg. Volume212,559
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.90
Price to Sales (P/S)0.58
P/FCF Ratio4.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$39.53B
Telefonica Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Telefónica, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Europe and Latin America. The company offers mobile and related services and products, including mobile voice, value added, mobile data and internet, wholesa...
How the Company Makes Money
Telefónica primarily makes money by selling recurring telecommunications services and related digital offerings. The largest revenue streams typically come from: (1) mobile services, where customers pay monthly subscription fees (postpaid) or usag...
Telefonica Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: Telefonica delivered on 2025 guidance, reported yoy growth across revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted operating cash flow after leases, showed Q4 acceleration, strengthened the balance sheet and upgraded 2026 free cash flow guidance to ~EUR 3bn. Core markets (Spain and Brazil) and B2B/digital units showed strong momentum and the company progressed portfolio simplification. Offsets include meaningful declines and one-off pressures in Germany and VMO2, FX headwinds, rising lease costs and near-term restructuring cash outflows. Regulatory uncertainty around consolidation and competitive pressures in consumer fixed/low-end segments add execution risk. On balance the positive operational strides, improved cash generation, balance sheet progress and upgraded guidance outweigh the material but manageable headwinds.Positive Updates
Delivered on 2025 Financial Commitments
Revenue EUR 35.1bn (+1.5% YoY constant), adjusted EBITDA EUR 11.9bn (+2% YoY), adjusted operating cash flow after leases just over EUR 5bn (+5.9% YoY). Free cash flow EUR 2.8bn (above initial base guidance ~EUR 2.7bn). Q4 acceleration: revenue +1.3% (constant), adjusted EBITDA +2.8%, adjusted operating cash flow after leases ~+13%.
Negative Updates
Germany: Revenue and EBITDA Declines (1&1 Migration Impact)
Revenue and adjusted EBITDA declined in 2025, with Q4 hit by the completion of the 1&1 customer migration and tough comparables to Q4 2024. Management reported steep Q4 EBITDA after-lease declines (questions cite ~-22% in Q4) and expects a return to growth only by 2027; market remains promotional which pressures ARPU.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Delivered on 2025 Financial Commitments
Revenue EUR 35.1bn (+1.5% YoY constant), adjusted EBITDA EUR 11.9bn (+2% YoY), adjusted operating cash flow after leases just over EUR 5bn (+5.9% YoY). Free cash flow EUR 2.8bn (above initial base guidance ~EUR 2.7bn). Q4 acceleration: revenue +1.3% (constant), adjusted EBITDA +2.8%, adjusted operating cash flow after leases ~+13%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Telefonica guided for 2026 to deliver constant‑currency revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth of 1.5–2.5%, a CapEx-to-sales ratio of around 12% (after 12.4% in 2025), adjusted operating cash flow after leases growth of >2% and upgraded free cash flow to approximately €3.0bn (versus €2.8bn in 2025); management reconfirmed the €0.15 dividend per share for 2026, reaffirmed its 3‑ and 5‑year CMD targets (including a 3–5% mid‑term FCF CAGR range), and reiterated the deleveraging path to ~2.5x net debt/adjusted EBITDA by 2028 (net debt ~€26.8bn and 2.78x at year‑end, liquidity €17.4bn), while highlighting operational efficiency measures (c.€0.6bn run‑rate workforce savings by 2028 and ~€250m Spain savings by 2026) that underpin the guidance.Telefonica Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
41
Neutral
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 35.50B | 33.73B | 41.31B | 40.65B | 39.99B | 39.28B |
| Gross Profit | 10.79B | 2.50B | 28.76B | 20.23B | 27.84B | 27.79B |
| EBITDA | 11.35B | 8.48B | 12.35B | 10.34B | 14.79B | 22.52B |
| Net Income | -3.40B | -4.15B | -49.00M | -892.00M | 2.01B | 8.14B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 89.63B | 91.98B | 100.50B | 104.32B | 109.64B | 109.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.71B | 7.43B | 9.26B | 7.67B | 8.54B | 10.66B |
| Total Debt | 42.11B | 49.45B | 45.02B | 44.12B | 45.39B | 48.17B |
| Total Liabilities | 71.36B | 81.72B | 77.75B | 77.23B | 77.93B | 80.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.54B | 6.71B | 19.35B | 21.85B | 25.09B | 22.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.78B | 4.48B | 5.20B | 5.93B | 5.41B | 4.18B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.02B | 9.34B | 10.99B | 12.59B | 11.76B | 12.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.77B | -4.58B | -5.22B | -4.63B | -5.33B | 6.97B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.25B | -5.98B | -4.67B | -7.77B | -7.92B | -15.35B |
Telefonica Technical Analysis
Negative
3.93
Price Trends
4.39
Negative
4.29
Negative
4.27
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
38.29
Neutral
12.06
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TELFY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.29, below the 50-day MA of 4.39, and below the 200-day MA of 4.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.06 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TELFY.
Telefonica Risk Analysis
Telefonica disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Telefonica reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Telefonica Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $79.08B | 15.58 | 20.61% | 2.69% | 9.51% | 187.55% | |
66 Neutral | $21.08B | 17.05 | 9.28% | 5.03% | 10.34% | 17.26% | |
64 Neutral | $12.96B | 14.53 | 11.99% | 6.14% | -4.78% | -32.55% | |
62 Neutral | $30.36B | -58.69 | -0.79% | 3.77% | 16.69% | 87.12% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
51 Neutral | $19.70B | 3.76 | 30.84% | ― | -0.92% | 3.13% | |
46 Neutral | $22.64B | -5.82 | -21.53% | 7.47% | -5.91% | -104.62% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TELFY
Telefonica
4.02
-0.99
-19.73%
AMX
America Movil
25.99
8.51
48.70%
CHTR
Charter Communications
142.21
-276.01
-66.00%
TLK
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
13.43
-2.71
-16.76%
VIV
Telefonica Brasil
13.16
2.43
22.59%
VOD
Vodafone
13.23
2.72
25.94%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.