tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Charter Communications (CHTR)
NASDAQ:CHTR

Charter Communications (CHTR) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
2,319 Followers

Top Page

CHTR

Charter Communications

(NASDAQ:CHTR)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 57 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$213.00
▲(3.34% Upside)
CHTR scores moderately due to strong cash generation and improving free cash flow, but the heavily leveraged balance sheet and weak/negative revenue trajectory are key risks. Technicals remain mixed with a short-term lift inside a longer-term downtrend, while the low P/E provides meaningful valuation support. Earnings call guidance suggests only modest near-term improvement, with longer-term upside tied to capex decline and execution on deleveraging amid subscriber pressures.
Positive Factors
Durable profitability and margin profile
Consistent EBIT/EBITDA margins and strong operating cash flow indicate durable operating efficiency. This supports reinvestment in network upgrades, funds deleveraging and shareholder returns, and cushions the business against cyclical revenue dips over the next 2–6 months.
Mobile momentum and network offload
Rapid mobile line additions and high traffic offload to Charter’s own network improve unit economics and reduce third‑party costs. This strengthens bundle retention, lowers broadband churn structurally, and diversifies revenue toward higher‑margin connectivity services over the medium term.
CapEx peak passed; material FCF upside
A credible multi‑year plan to cut capex from recent peaks meaningfully increases free cash flow potential. Lower capital intensity enables faster deleveraging, more predictable cash returns to shareholders, and funding for strategic product rollouts without re‑levering.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and high gross debt
High absolute debt and ~4.5x leverage constrain financial flexibility and heighten interest expense sensitivity (~$4.9B annualized). Elevated leverage limits capacity for M&A or large discretionary spend and prolongs exposure to cash‑flow shocks until deleveraging materially progresses.
Structural broadband subscriber declines
Ongoing internet customer losses erode recurring revenue and reduce ARPU, pressuring top‑line durability. Substitution by mobile, competitive subsidies and fiber expansion are structural threats that require sustained product, pricing and network investment to counter over multiple quarters.
Streaming app allocation and video ARPU pressure
Rising programmer streaming app allocations reduce reported video revenue and compress video ARPU even if programming costs are GAAP‑neutral. As streaming economics persist, this structural allocation may continue to mute reported revenue growth and complicate long‑term video monetization.

Charter Communications (CHTR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Charter Communications Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCharter Communications, Inc. operates as a broadband connectivity and cable operator company serving residential and commercial customers in the United States. The company offers subscription-based video services, including video on demand, high-definition television, digital video recorder, pay-per-view services. It provides Internet services, such as security suite that protects computers from viruses and spyware, and threats from malicious actors; in-home WiFi, which provides customers with high performance wireless routers to enhance their in-home wireless Internet experience; out-of-home WiFi; and Spectrum WiFi services, as well as video services. The company also offers voice communications services using voice over Internet protocol technology; and broadband communications solutions, such as Internet access, data networking, fiber connectivity, video entertainment, and business telephone services to cellular towers and office buildings for business and carrier organizations. In addition, it provides mobile services; offers video programming, static IP and business WiFi, email and security, and multi-line telephone services, as well as Web-based service management; sells local advertising across various platforms for networks, such as TBS, CNN, and ESPN; sells advertising inventory to local sports and news channels; and offers Audience App for optimizes linear inventory. Further, the company offers communications products and managed service solutions; data connectivity services to mobile and wireline carriers on a wholesale basis; and owns and operates regional sports and news networks. It serves approximately 32 million customers in 41 states. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
How the Company Makes MoneyCharter Communications generates revenue primarily through its subscription-based services. The company's key revenue streams include residential and business broadband internet services, cable television subscriptions, and voice services. Its broadband internet offerings are a significant driver of revenue, as demand for high-speed internet continues to grow. Additionally, Charter earns revenue from advertising through its cable television services and from partnerships with content providers. The company also benefits from upselling premium channels and packages to its subscribers, further enhancing its revenue. Charter's significant scale and extensive infrastructure allow it to maintain competitive pricing and attract a large customer base, contributing to its overall earnings.

Charter Communications Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Customer Relationships
Customer Relationships
Measures the strength and depth of customer connections, indicating potential for customer loyalty, retention, and future revenue growth.
Chart InsightsCharter Communications' Residential customer base has been declining since late 2023, reversing the steady growth seen in previous years. This trend suggests potential challenges in retaining customers or increased competition. Meanwhile, the SMB segment shows stability with slight fluctuations, indicating resilience in this market. Without recent earnings call insights, the reasons behind these shifts remain unclear, but the decline in Residential relationships could pressure future revenue growth if not addressed.
Data provided by:The Fly

Charter Communications Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: management highlighted durable strategic advantages (network upgrades, rural build-out, strong mobile offload, video product improvements, and a path to materially lower capex and higher free cash flow) and modest full‑year EBITDA growth, but results were offset by near‑term revenue declines, a Q4 EBITDA decline, continued broadband customer losses and advertising comparability headwinds. Guidance anticipates only slight EBITDA growth in 2026 with a tougher first half, and leverage remains elevated despite a credible delevering plan. Overall, positives around long‑term positioning and product innovation are balanced by meaningful short‑term operational and revenue headwinds.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA for full-year 2025 grew by about 0.6% year-over-year, demonstrating underlying profitability expansion despite revenue pressures.
Mobile Momentum and Network Offload
Spectrum added 428,000 mobile lines in Q4 and nearly 90% (around 89%) of Spectrum mobile traffic already offloads to Spectrum’s network, supporting profitability, improved broadband churn and positioning Spectrum as a high-traffic, facilities-based mobile provider.
Video Subscriber Turnaround
Video customers grew by 44,000 in Q4 2025 (versus a loss of 123,000 in Q4 2024) driven by new pricing/packaging, Zumo, and programmer app inclusion; video product described as a strategic 'killer app' for acquisition and retention.
Rural Build-Out and Passings Growth
Company expects to nearly complete rural build-out in 2026 providing ~1,700,000 new subsidized rural passings; Q4 subsidized rural passings grew by 147,000 and by over 483,000 in the past 12 months (above the 450,000 target), with 46,000 net customer additions in subsidized rural footprint in the quarter.
Network Upgrades and Product Innovations
By year-end 2026 ~50% of the network will be upgraded to symmetrical and multi-gig service (remaining upgrades targeted for completion in 2027); new product launches include 'Invincible Wi‑Fi' (Wi‑Fi 7 + 5G + battery backup) and a business MVNO with T‑Mobile, plus partnerships such as Spectrum Front Row (Apple/NBA).
CapEx Peak Passed — Capital Intensity Falling
2025 capital expenditures peaked at $11.66B (slightly above prior expectation); 2026 guidance $11.4B and management expects run‑rate CapEx to decline to below $8B by 2028, targeting capital intensity of ~13–14% of revenue by 2028 (Charter standalone) — implying significant free cash flow upside (management cites ~$28 FCF per share benefit from the capex decline).
Balance Sheet and Capital Return Actions
Ended Q4 with $95B debt principal, weighted average cost of debt ~5.2%, annualized cash interest ~$4.9B; repurchased 2.9M shares for $760M in Q4. Management moved post‑transaction leverage target to low end of 3.5–3.75x (from midpoint of 3.5–4x) with plan to achieve within three years, signaling intent to delever while continuing capital returns.
Negative Updates
Revenue Declines and Q4 Weakness
Consolidated revenue in Q4 was down 2.0% year-over-year and was down about 0.5% for calendar 2025 (management cited customer losses and a tough political advertising comparison). Excluding advertising and programmer app allocation, Q4 revenue decline moderates to 0.4%.
Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA and Net Income Pressure
Adjusted EBITDA declined 1.2% year-over-year in Q4 (even though full-year EBITDA grew 0.6%). Q4 net income attributable to shareholders fell to $1.3B from $1.5B a year earlier, driven by lower EBITDA and higher tax expense.
Internet Customer Losses and Competitive Headwinds
Q4 Internet customers declined by 119,000 (better than prior-year Q4 but still a material loss); management pointed to low move rates, higher mobile substitution, expanded carrier subsidies, and fiber overlap as ongoing headwinds — broadband declines pressure revenue and growth outlook.
Advertising and Seasonal Comparisons
Advertising revenue dropped 20% year-over-year in Q4 due to less political revenue; while ex-political advertising was roughly flat, the unfavorable political comparison materially pressured top-line results in the quarter.
Streaming App Allocation and Video ARPU Headwinds
Costs allocated to programmer streaming apps netted within video revenue jumped to $165M in the quarter from $37M prior-year, creating a growing revenue headwind (management noted this allocation could be as much as $1.0B for full-year 2026). Video ARPU faces ongoing pressure from higher mix of lighter video packages and allocation impacts, even though programming expense is offset in GAAP EBITDA.
Free Cash Flow and CapEx Timing Effects
Q4 free cash flow was $773M, about $200M lower than last year due to less favorable working capital and higher CapEx (Q4 CapEx +$273M YoY tied to multiyear software accruals). While future CapEx is expected to decline, near-term FCF is impacted by timing and elevated spend.
Leverage Remains Elevated Near-Term
Net debt to last twelve month adjusted EBITDA stood at ~4.5x (4.21x pro forma Liberty). Although management plans to delever to ~3.5–3.75x over ~3 years post-close, current leverage remains high and could constrain flexibility until delevering progresses.
Company Guidance
Charter guided to slight EBITDA growth in 2026 (excluding transition costs) after full-year 2025 EBITDA grew ~0.6% while Q4 adjusted EBITDA fell 1.2%; consolidated Q4 revenue was down 2% (down 0.4% ex-advertising and programmer app allocation) and 2025 revenue was down about 0.5%. Key financial metrics: 2025 CapEx totaled $11.66B (Q4 $3.3B), 2026 CapEx is expected to be $11.4B with run‑rate CapEx below $8B by 2028 and capital intensity targeting 13–14% of revenue by 2028 (CapEx reduction from $11.7B to < $8B ≈ $28 of FCF/share); Q4 free cash flow was $773M (≈$200M lower YoY); 2025 cash taxes were just under $900M with 2026 cash taxes expected $500–$800M. Balance sheet and capital return guidance: $95B of debt principal, weighted average cost of debt ~5.2%, annualized cash interest ~$4.9B, net debt/LTM adjusted EBITDA ~4.5x (4.21x pro forma Liberty), plan to be at or slightly under 4.25x during Cox pendency and target 3.5–3.75x within three years post-close while maintaining significant shareholder returns. Customer and operational targets: Q4 Internet losses of 119k, Q4 mobile additions of 428k, Q4 video +44k (vs -123k prior year), wireline voice -140k, subsidized rural net adds 46k in Q4 with subsidized rural passings +147k Q4 (+483k LTM) and a 2026 rural passings goal of 450k; product and network actions include upgrading 50% of the footprint to symmetrical multi‑gig by year‑end (remaining 50% in 2027), nearly 90% of Spectrum Mobile traffic on Charter’s network (~89–90% offload), a $1,000 savings guarantee for Internet + two mobile lines (first year), an Invincible Wi‑Fi launch in February, a T‑Mobile MVNO for business in ~6 months, and a potential ~$1B streaming app allocation headwind in 2026.

Charter Communications Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong, consistent operating cash flow and positive (improving) free cash flow support stability, but the balance sheet is a major constraint with very high debt and elevated leverage. Revenue growth is limited/negative recently, and a noted 2025 margin data quality issue reduces confidence in the latest margin trend.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Revenue has been largely flat over the last several years and turned slightly negative in the most recent annual period (-0.59% growth), suggesting limited top-line momentum. Profitability is steady: net margin has held around ~8%–9% (2023–2025), and earnings have been fairly resilient. A key data quality issue is that 2025 shows zero gross profit and zero EBIT margin despite sizable EBIT/EBITDA, which reduces confidence in margin trend analysis for the latest year.
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Leverage is the central balance sheet constraint. Total debt remains very high (~$95B) and debt-to-equity is elevated (roughly ~5.9x in 2025; ~6.1x in 2024), leaving the company more exposed to refinancing and interest-rate risk than a typical stable telecom business. Equity has improved versus 2022–2023, which helps, and returns on equity are strong (driven in part by leverage), but the capital structure remains aggressive.
Cash Flow
66
Positive
Cash generation is solid: operating cash flow is consistently strong (~$14B–$16B annually). Free cash flow is positive each year, improved in 2025 to ~$4.4B with strong growth (+63.8%), after weaker performance in 2023–2024. However, free cash flow is a modest share of earnings in recent years (about ~22%–27% in 2024–2025), indicating capital intensity and/or working-capital swings can limit how much accounting profit converts into true excess cash.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue54.77B55.09B54.61B54.02B51.68B
Gross Profit25.37B25.32B21.27B23.42B20.61B
EBITDA21.21B21.40B20.74B20.92B19.77B
Net Income4.99B5.08B4.56B5.05B4.65B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets154.21B150.02B147.19B144.52B142.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments477.00M459.00M709.00M645.00M601.00M
Total Debt94.76B95.76B98.20B97.90B91.83B
Total Liabilities133.69B130.31B132.47B131.97B124.33B
Stockholders Equity16.05B15.59B11.09B9.12B14.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.42B3.16B3.49B6.10B8.68B
Operating Cash Flow16.08B14.43B14.43B14.93B16.24B
Investing Cash Flow-11.62B-10.84B-11.13B-9.11B-7.75B
Financing Cash Flow-4.37B-3.79B-3.24B-5.77B-8.88B

Charter Communications Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price206.12
Price Trends
50DMA
201.82
Positive
100DMA
226.18
Negative
200DMA
289.81
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-4.08
Negative
RSI
56.23
Neutral
STOCH
50.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHTR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 206.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 198.05, above the 50-day MA of 201.82, and below the 200-day MA of 289.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CHTR.

Charter Communications Risk Analysis

Charter Communications disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Charter Communications reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Charter Communications Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$108.41B5.5221.92%4.42%0.20%61.54%
77
Outperform
$220.58B18.9619.03%1.75%7.30%17.67%
75
Outperform
$3.78B5.8653.38%6.42%
75
Outperform
$187.72B10.9716.86%6.60%2.42%102.17%
67
Neutral
$185.81B8.6220.43%4.56%1.98%150.68%
60
Neutral
$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
57
Neutral
$29.87B5.6831.52%0.42%13.46%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CHTR
Charter Communications
206.12
-135.38
-39.64%
T
AT&T
26.21
2.98
12.81%
CMCSA
Comcast
29.75
-0.11
-0.38%
VZ
Verizon
44.52
7.10
18.98%
TMUS
T Mobile US
197.21
-37.23
-15.88%
VEON
VEON
54.64
11.46
26.54%

Charter Communications Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Charter Communications Adds Wade Davis to Board
Neutral
Jan 28, 2026

On January 27, 2026, Charter Communications appointed Wade Davis as an independent member of its Board of Directors, filling the vacancy left by David Merritt’s retirement from the board on January 26, 2026. Davis will receive the company’s standard non-employee director compensation package, including a prorated annual cash retainer of $120,000 and a prorated restricted stock grant valued at $52,398 that will vest at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, and his appointment underscores continuity in Charter’s board governance without any special arrangements or side agreements related to his selection.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHTR) stock is a Hold with a $201.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Charter Communications stock, see the CHTR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Charter Communications Extends EVP Adam Ray’s Employment Agreement
Positive
Jan 22, 2026

On January 16, 2026, Charter Communications entered into a new employment agreement with Adam Ray, confirming his role as Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer through January 19, 2028, with an annual base salary of at least $750,000, a target cash bonus equal to 160% of salary, and ongoing participation in standard executive benefits and perquisites. The agreement enhances Ray’s long-term incentive alignment with shareholders by granting him, starting in 2027, annual equity awards worth at least $4.25 million in options and restricted stock units, plus a $500,000 top-up equity grant issued on January 20, 2026 that cliff vests after three years, while also outlining substantial severance protections and imposing post-employment noncompete, nonsolicitation, and confidentiality obligations that aim to secure commercial leadership stability and protect Charter’s competitive and intellectual property interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHTR) stock is a Hold with a $202.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Charter Communications stock, see the CHTR Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Charter Communications Issues New Senior Unsecured Notes Offering
Neutral
Jan 14, 2026

On January 13, 2026, Charter Communications’ subsidiaries CCO Holdings, LLC and CCO Holdings Capital Corp. completed the issuance and sale of $3.0 billion in senior unsecured notes, comprising $1.75 billion of 7.000% Senior Notes due 2033 and $1.25 billion of 7.375% Senior Notes due 2036, sold at par to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A and to non-U.S. investors under Regulation S. The notes, which are general unsecured and not guaranteed, are governed by an indenture that restricts the issuers’ ability to incur additional debt, pay certain dividends, make specific investments, grant liens, sell assets, or enter into certain affiliate transactions, and includes change-of-control put rights and standard events of default, while a related registration rights agreement commits the issuers to exchange or register the notes or pay additional interest if they fail to meet specified SEC registration timelines, shaping the company’s future financing flexibility and investor protections around this new tranche of high-coupon debt.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHTR) stock is a Sell with a $180.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Charter Communications stock, see the CHTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Charter details Cox transaction impact with new pro forma
Positive
Jan 6, 2026

On May 16, 2025, Charter Communications agreed a multi-part transaction with Cox Enterprises under which Charter will acquire 100% of the equity in Cox Communications subsidiaries that operate Cox’s commercial fiber and managed IT and cloud services businesses, while Cox Enterprises will contribute the equity of Cox Communications and certain other assets tied primarily to its residential cable operations into Charter Communications Holdings in exchange for interests there, and make a nominal cash payment to Charter. Charter has now filed unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements for Cox Communications as of and for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, along with unaudited pro forma condensed combined financial information for the same period and for the year ended December 31, 2024, to illustrate how the Cox assets and businesses would affect Charter’s balance sheet and operating results as if the deal had been completed earlier, providing investors and other stakeholders with a clearer view of the transaction’s prospective impact on Charter’s scale, leverage and earnings profile in both residential cable and enterprise connectivity services.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHTR) stock is a Hold with a $233.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Charter Communications stock, see the CHTR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Charter Communications Director Announces Retirement
Neutral
Dec 12, 2025

On December 11, 2025, David C. Merritt, a director at Charter Communications, announced his intention to retire from the Board of Directors, effective January 26, 2026. His decision to retire was not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations, policies, or practices, indicating a smooth transition and stability within the company’s governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHTR) stock is a Hold with a $224.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Charter Communications stock, see the CHTR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Charter Communications Extends CEO Winfrey’s Contract
Positive
Dec 5, 2025

On December 3, 2025, Charter Communications‘ Compensation and Benefits Committee approved an amended employment agreement for CEO Christopher L. Winfrey, effective December 1, 2025, extending his term until December 1, 2028. The agreement includes a substantial compensation package with an annual base salary of at least $2.5 million, a target annual bonus opportunity of 300% of his salary, and annual stock option awards. Additionally, a contingent equity award was approved for executive officers, linked to the closing of a transaction with Cox Enterprises, highlighting the company’s strategic moves to strengthen executive retention and incentivize leadership amid significant corporate transactions.

The most recent analyst rating on (CHTR) stock is a Sell with a $165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Charter Communications stock, see the CHTR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 31, 2026