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T Mobile US (TMUS)
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T Mobile US (TMUS) AI Stock Analysis

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TMUS

T Mobile US

(NASDAQ:TMUS)

Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$285.00
▲(19.28% Upside)
T-Mobile US achieves a strong overall score driven by excellent financial performance and an optimistic earnings call with record growth and increased guidance. Technical analysis and valuation indicate some market caution, but the company's strategic positioning and robust growth prospects bolster confidence.
Positive Factors
Customer Growth
T-Mobile's net postpaid customer additions of 1.7 million were the best ever for a second quarter, highlighting strong customer growth.
Financial Performance
T-Mobile's revenue growth was nearly 7%, with postpaid service revenues increasing 9%, signaling strong financial performance.
Market Position
T-Mobile is well-positioned to win in an active switcher environment, thanks to its strong price and network value proposition.
Negative Factors
Guidance
Despite beating 2Q EBITDA expectations, T-Mobile only raised its EBITDA guidance modestly, which is seen as a 'guide down'.
Investment Year
Though the EBITDA guide is up just $50MM at the midpoint despite the ~$140MM beat, cautioning that the company is still an investment year.

T Mobile US (TMUS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

T Mobile US Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionT-Mobile US, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile communications services in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United States Virgin Islands. The company offers voice, messaging, and data services to 108.7 million customers in the postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale markets. It also provides wireless devices, including smartphones, wearables, and tablets and other mobile communication devices, as well as wireless devices and accessories. In addition, the company offers services, devices, and accessories under the T-Mobile and Metro by T-Mobile brands through its owned and operated retail stores, T-Mobile app and customer care channels, and its websites. It also sells its devices to dealers and other third-party distributors for resale through independent third-party retail outlets and various third-party websites. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 102,000 macro cell and 41,000 small cell/distributed antenna system sites. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.
How the Company Makes MoneyT-Mobile US makes money primarily through the provision of wireless communication services, including mobile voice, messaging, and data services. The company's revenue model is based on offering service plans to customers on both postpaid and prepaid bases. Postpaid customers typically enter into long-term contracts, while prepaid customers pay in advance for their services. T-Mobile also generates revenue from the sale of mobile devices and accessories, including smartphones and tablets. Additionally, the company benefits from roaming agreements with other carriers and wholesale services offered to mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs). Strategic partnerships, such as the merger with Sprint, have expanded T-Mobile's network capacity and customer base, further enhancing its revenue potential.

T Mobile US Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Customers by Type
Customers by Type
Categorizes customers into segments such as postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale, providing a clear view of T-Mobile’s customer base composition and potential areas for growth or risk.
Chart InsightsT-Mobile's postpaid customer base has shown remarkable growth, especially since the Sprint merger in 2020, and continues to expand robustly. The latest earnings call highlights record postpaid phone net additions and a positive outlook for 2025, with expectations of significant customer growth and service revenue increases. Meanwhile, prepaid customer growth has accelerated recently, but concerns about immigration patterns could impact future growth. T-Mobile's strategic focus on network leadership and pricing strategies positions it well to maintain its competitive edge in the postpaid segment.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

T Mobile US Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 2.14%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
T-Mobile's Q2 2025 earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, record postpaid growth, increased guidance, and strategic partnerships, despite facing a competitive market environment and slightly higher churn.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Postpaid Growth
T-Mobile achieved its greatest Q2 for growth in history with record postpaid phone net additions and total postpaid net adds up double digits year-over-year.
Strong ARPA Growth
ARPA growth was over 5%, marking the highest growth in 8 years, driven by customers selecting premium plans.
Successful Business Partnerships
T-Mobile announced a new multiyear partnership with cable providers to offer mobile services to small and mid-market businesses, expected to drive incremental revenue.
Network Expansion
T-Mobile plans to add nearly 4,000 sites this year and launched a new T-Satellite service, extending coverage to remote areas.
Strong Financial Performance
Postpaid service revenues grew 9% year-over-year, core adjusted EBITDA grew 6%, and adjusted free cash flow was a record $4.6 billion.
Increased Guidance
T-Mobile raised its guidance for total postpaid net additions and postpaid phone net additions for 2025.
Negative Updates
Slightly Higher Churn
Despite strong subscriber growth, the company experienced slightly higher churn, which is expected to improve in the second half.
Competitive Market Environment
The market remains highly competitive, with increased device promotions impacting the overall industry dynamics.
Company Guidance
During T-Mobile's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company delivered impressive results, marking it as the best Q2 in its history. They achieved record-breaking growth in multiple metrics, including the highest Q2 postpaid phone net additions, total postpaid net additions, and gross additions, with both gross and total postpaid adds up by double digits year-over-year. Additionally, T-Mobile's postpaid account nets accelerated, and the share of postpaid households grew in every cohort within the top 100 markets, smaller markets, and rural areas. The company's postpaid ARPA grew by over 5%, the highest in eight years, driven by the popularity of their new premium rate plans. T-Mobile's business group also led the industry in net additions, and their 5G broadband service maintained its leadership in net additions for the 14th straight quarter. Financially, they saw a 9% year-over-year growth in postpaid service revenues and a 6% growth in total service revenues, translating to a record $4.6 billion in adjusted free cash flow and a free cash flow conversion rate of 26% from service revenues. The company raised its full-year guidance, expecting total postpaid net additions between 6.1 million to 6.4 million and service revenue growth of at least 6%. Additionally, T-Mobile announced a new partnership with cable companies to provide mobile services to small and mid-market businesses, expanding their growth opportunities in underpenetrated areas.

T Mobile US Financial Statement Overview

Summary
T-Mobile US demonstrates robust financial health with strong revenue growth, high profitability, and efficient cash flow generation. Despite high leverage typical for the industry, the company's effective use of equity and strong return on equity highlight its financial stability.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
T-Mobile US shows strong revenue growth with a Revenue Growth Rate of 3.26% in TTM over the previous year. The Gross Profit Margin is robust at 59.87%, and the Net Profit Margin improved to 14.53% from 13.93% annually. Both EBIT Margin at 23.13% and EBITDA Margin at 38.09% indicate efficient operations. The company's consistent growth and profitability highlight its competitive edge in the telecommunications sector.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The Debt-to-Equity Ratio stands at 1.93, reflecting a high level of leverage, typical for the telecommunications industry. However, the Return on Equity (ROE) of 19.99% and an Equity Ratio of 28.75% indicate a solid financial position. While leverage is high, the company effectively utilizes equity to generate returns, showcasing financial stability.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is significant at 32.77%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 2.09, suggesting efficient cash conversion from earnings. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.09 further supports the company's ability to generate cash beyond its net earnings, ensuring liquidity and financial flexibility.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue84.05B81.40B78.56B79.57B80.12B68.40B
Gross Profit53.46B51.75B48.37B43.37B43.51B40.13B
EBITDA32.08B31.04B27.15B20.16B23.08B20.38B
Net Income12.21B11.34B8.32B2.59B3.02B3.06B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets212.64B208.03B207.68B211.34B206.56B200.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments10.50B5.41B5.13B4.51B6.63B10.38B
Total Debt117.86B113.94B113.09B111.79B108.82B107.25B
Total Liabilities151.54B146.29B142.97B141.68B137.46B134.82B
Stockholders Equity61.11B61.74B64.72B69.66B69.10B65.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow13.25B9.98B7.75B-520.00M-7.78B-3.73B
Operating Cash Flow25.53B22.29B18.56B16.78B13.92B8.64B
Investing Cash Flow-10.57B-9.07B-5.83B-12.36B-19.39B-12.71B
Financing Cash Flow-11.03B-12.81B-12.10B-6.45B1.71B13.01B

T Mobile US Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price238.93
Price Trends
50DMA
235.19
Positive
100DMA
243.59
Negative
200DMA
239.07
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
1.65
Negative
RSI
53.36
Neutral
STOCH
31.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMUS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 238.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 234.54, above the 50-day MA of 235.19, and below the 200-day MA of 239.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TMUS.

T Mobile US Risk Analysis

T Mobile US disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. T Mobile US reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

T Mobile US Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$179.91B9.9818.26%6.35%2.05%61.39%
80
Outperform
$268.90B22.5319.74%1.39%6.27%31.78%
76
Outperform
$40.55B7.1336.19%1.03%17.05%
74
Outperform
$55.84B19.2514.41%2.91%-0.64%56.92%
72
Outperform
$120.03B5.3725.44%3.94%2.54%60.53%
67
Neutral
$198.57B15.8312.12%4.00%1.46%0.88%
55
Neutral
HK$63.39B-0.67-4.21%5.33%-2.16%-18.87%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TMUS
T Mobile US
238.93
47.99
25.13%
AMX
America Movil
17.98
1.58
9.63%
T
AT&T
27.77
9.24
49.87%
CHTR
Charter Communications
265.98
-97.96
-26.92%
CMCSA
Comcast
32.51
-5.53
-14.54%
VZ
Verizon
42.67
4.70
12.38%

T Mobile US Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
T-Mobile US Extends Exchange Offers for USCC
Neutral
Jul 2, 2025

On July 2, 2025, T-Mobile US, Inc. announced the extension of its Exchange Offers and Consent Solicitations for United States Cellular Corporation’s outstanding senior notes, initially set to expire on July 1, 2025, now extended to August 1, 2025. This extension is part of T-Mobile’s strategic move to acquire USCC’s wireless operations and spectrum assets, reflecting its ongoing efforts to strengthen its market position and expand its network capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMUS) stock is a Buy with a $220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on T Mobile US stock, see the TMUS Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
T-Mobile Announces Preliminary Results of Exchange Offers
Neutral
Jun 16, 2025

On June 16, 2025, T-Mobile US, Inc. announced the preliminary results of its offers to exchange certain outstanding senior notes of United States Cellular Corporation (USCC) for new notes issued by T-Mobile USA. The exchange offers, part of a Securities Purchase Agreement, aim to acquire certain assets from USCC. As of June 13, 2025, a significant percentage of the old USCC notes were tendered, and consents were received to amend the indentures governing these notes. The amendments will become operative upon the closing of the acquisition, expected by mid-2025, pending regulatory approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMUS) stock is a Buy with a $220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on T Mobile US stock, see the TMUS Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
T-Mobile US Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
Jun 10, 2025

On June 6, 2025, T-Mobile US held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where two key proposals were addressed. The first proposal involved the election of 13 directors to the board, each to serve until the 2026 Annual Meeting, while the second proposal ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions are pivotal for the company’s governance and financial oversight, impacting its strategic direction and operational transparency.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMUS) stock is a Buy with a $220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on T Mobile US stock, see the TMUS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 26, 2025