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T Mobile US (TMUS)
NASDAQ:TMUS

T Mobile US (TMUS) AI Stock Analysis

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TMUS

T Mobile US

(NASDAQ:TMUS)

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Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$231.00
▲(16.86% Upside)
T-Mobile US demonstrates strong financial performance and positive corporate events, contributing to a solid overall score. However, bearish technical indicators and a valuation that is not particularly compelling weigh on the score. The company's robust earnings call and strategic initiatives provide confidence in its growth trajectory.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth in postpaid services indicates robust demand and effective market penetration, supporting long-term business expansion.
Shareholder Return Program
The substantial shareholder return program enhances investor confidence and reflects strong cash generation, supporting long-term shareholder value.
Leadership Transition
The new CEO's experience in technology and telecom is expected to drive continued growth and digital transformation, reinforcing strategic direction.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk in volatile markets, potentially impacting long-term financial stability.
Increased Costs
Rising costs from mergers could pressure margins and reduce profitability, affecting the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives.
Network Expenses
Ongoing network transformation expenses may strain cash flow and impact short-term profitability, necessitating careful cost management.

T Mobile US (TMUS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

T Mobile US Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionT-Mobile US, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile communications services in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United States Virgin Islands. The company offers voice, messaging, and data services to 108.7 million customers in the postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale markets. It also provides wireless devices, including smartphones, wearables, and tablets and other mobile communication devices, as well as wireless devices and accessories. In addition, the company offers services, devices, and accessories under the T-Mobile and Metro by T-Mobile brands through its owned and operated retail stores, T-Mobile app and customer care channels, and its websites. It also sells its devices to dealers and other third-party distributors for resale through independent third-party retail outlets and various third-party websites. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 102,000 macro cell and 41,000 small cell/distributed antenna system sites. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.
How the Company Makes MoneyT-Mobile US generates revenue primarily through subscription-based services, including postpaid and prepaid wireless plans. The bulk of its revenue comes from monthly service fees paid by customers for voice, text, and data services. Additionally, the company earns income from device sales, which include smartphones and accessories sold outright or through installment plans. T-Mobile also has partnerships with various content providers and technology companies, which can yield revenue through bundled offers and promotions. The company's strategic acquisitions, such as the merger with Sprint, have further expanded its customer base and market reach, contributing significantly to its overall earnings.

T Mobile US Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Customers by Type
Customers by Type
Categorizes customers into segments such as postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale, providing insight into customer base diversity and growth opportunities.
Chart InsightsT-Mobile's postpaid customer base has shown robust growth, with a significant increase since mid-2020, driven by strategic initiatives and premium plan popularity. The latest earnings call highlights record-breaking postpaid additions and a 9% rise in postpaid service revenues, underscoring strong market positioning. Prepaid customers also saw a notable uptick, particularly in mid-2024, reflecting effective market penetration strategies. Despite slightly higher churn, T-Mobile's increased guidance and new business partnerships signal confidence in sustaining momentum amid competitive pressures.
Data provided by:The Fly

T Mobile US Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 23, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong quarter for T-Mobile, marked by record-breaking customer growth, industry-leading financial performance, and significant advancements in broadband. While there were increased costs associated with mergers and network expenses, the company's overall growth trajectory and increased guidance for 2025 show confidence in continued success.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Customer Growth
T-Mobile achieved all-time best postpaid customer account growth with over 1 million postpaid phone net additions, marking the best Q3 in over a decade.
Industry-Leading Financial Growth
Postpaid service revenue grew by 12% year-over-year, with total service revenue up 9% and core adjusted EBITDA increased by 6%. Free cash flow conversion was at 26%.
Significant Advancements in Broadband
Led the industry with over 500,000 customer additions on 5G broadband and over 50,000 on fiber. The 5G broadband ARPUs and customer lifetime values are similar to the postpaid phone business.
Increased Guidance for 2025
Raised expectations for total postpaid net additions to between 7.2 to 7.4 million and postpaid phone net additions to 3.3 million. Postpaid ARPA growth is expected to be at least 3.5% for the full year.
Negative Updates
Increased Costs Due to Mergers
Approximately $300 million in costs expected in Q4 related to merger-related activities with UScellular, which will be excluded from core adjusted EBITDA.
Additional Network Expenses
Approximately $160 million in additional expenses expected in Q4 related to cell site decommissioning as part of network transformation initiatives.
Company Guidance
During the T-Mobile Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the management team provided guidance reflecting strong performance and future expectations. They increased their expectation for total postpaid net additions to between 7.2 million and 7.4 million, highlighting significant customer growth. Postpaid phone net additions are now expected to reach 3.3 million, driven by strong market momentum. The company also raised its fiber customer net additions guidance to approximately 103,000, reflecting the strength of their T-Fiber rollout. Financially, postpaid ARPA growth is projected to be at least 3.5% for the full year, excluding certain dilutive impacts, with an underlying growth expectation of approximately 4%. Core adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to a range of $33.7 billion to $33.9 billion, an increase of $300 million at the midpoint. Cash CapEx is anticipated to be around $10 billion, while adjusted free cash flow is expected to range from $17.8 billion to $18 billion, illustrating robust cash conversion and financial health. The company expressed confidence in its ability to deliver outsized and profitable growth, emphasizing the widening differentiation and strategic priorities that underpin its strong market position.

T Mobile US Financial Statement Overview

Summary
T-Mobile US exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth, robust profitability, and effective cash flow management. The company maintains a solid equity base, but high leverage requires careful management to mitigate potential risks.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
T-Mobile US shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, evidenced by a 2.14% increase in TTM revenue. The company maintains healthy profitability metrics, with a gross profit margin of 59.59% and a net profit margin of 13.83% in TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 22.16% and 37.19%, respectively, indicating efficient operations. However, the slight decline in gross profit margin from the previous year suggests potential cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a solid equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.91, which is manageable but indicates significant leverage. Return on equity is strong at 19.42%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 27.84%, suggesting a balanced capital structure, though the high debt level poses a risk in volatile market conditions.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
T-Mobile US demonstrates strong cash flow generation with a 23.08% growth in free cash flow, highlighting improved operational efficiency. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.10 indicates healthy cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.61 suggests a solid ability to generate cash relative to earnings, though the company should continue to monitor cash flow sustainability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue85.85B81.40B78.56B79.57B80.12B68.40B
Gross Profit51.15B51.75B48.37B43.37B43.51B40.13B
EBITDA31.93B31.04B27.15B20.16B23.08B20.38B
Net Income11.87B11.34B8.32B2.59B3.02B3.06B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets217.18B208.03B207.68B211.34B206.56B200.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.58B5.41B5.13B4.51B6.63B10.38B
Total Debt120.44B114.40B113.83B111.79B108.82B107.25B
Total Liabilities156.70B146.29B142.97B141.68B137.46B134.82B
Stockholders Equity60.48B61.74B64.72B69.66B69.10B65.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow16.31B9.98B7.75B-520.00M-7.78B-3.73B
Operating Cash Flow26.84B22.29B18.56B16.78B13.92B8.64B
Investing Cash Flow-17.41B-9.07B-5.83B-12.36B-19.39B-12.71B
Financing Cash Flow-15.77B-12.81B-12.10B-6.45B1.71B13.01B

T Mobile US Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price197.67
Price Trends
50DMA
208.85
Negative
100DMA
224.96
Negative
200DMA
233.33
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.65
Negative
RSI
42.13
Neutral
STOCH
41.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMUS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 197.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 201.66, below the 50-day MA of 208.85, and below the 200-day MA of 233.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMUS.

T Mobile US Risk Analysis

T Mobile US disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. T Mobile US reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

T Mobile US Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$170.01B8.5919.70%6.60%2.42%102.17%
76
Outperform
$222.61B19.1419.03%1.75%7.30%17.67%
74
Outperform
$108.52B4.9424.73%4.42%0.20%61.54%
71
Outperform
$174.83B8.0120.88%4.56%1.98%150.68%
69
Neutral
$30.21B5.7534.79%0.42%13.46%
60
Neutral
$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
60
Neutral
$64.00B16.8417.70%2.69%1.14%83.48%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TMUS
T Mobile US
199.02
-20.57
-9.37%
AMX
America Movil
20.85
6.75
47.87%
T
AT&T
24.66
2.78
12.71%
CHTR
Charter Communications
208.46
-140.19
-40.21%
CMCSA
Comcast
29.78
-6.77
-18.52%
VZ
Verizon
40.32
2.97
7.95%

T Mobile US Corporate Events

Stock BuybackDividends
T-Mobile US Unveils $14.6 Billion Shareholder Return Plan
Positive
Dec 11, 2025

On December 11, 2025, T-Mobile US announced a new shareholder return program of up to $14.6 billion, running through December 31, 2026. This program, which includes share repurchases and cash dividends, follows a previous $14.0 billion program and aims to enhance shareholder value. The execution of this program will depend on market conditions and company performance, with flexibility in its implementation.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
T-Mobile US Appoints Jonathan Freier as COO
Neutral
Dec 9, 2025

On December 5, 2025, T-Mobile US appointed Jonathan A. Freier as the Chief Operating Officer, effective immediately. Freier, who has been with the company since 1994, brings extensive experience in telecommunications and has been instrumental in leading various operational functions. In connection with his appointment, a compensation agreement was established, outlining his salary and incentive structure, which includes a significant annual base salary and long-term incentive awards. Additionally, T-Mobile announced a new retirement program effective January 1, 2026, for its officers, providing retirement benefits contingent on meeting specific criteria, which aims to enhance the company’s executive retention and succession planning strategies.

Private Placements and Financing
T-Mobile US Completes $2.8 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Oct 9, 2025

On October 9, 2025, T-Mobile USA, a subsidiary of T-Mobile US, Inc., completed a public offering of senior notes totaling $2.8 billion, with varying maturity dates in 2033, 2035, and 2056. The proceeds from this offering are intended for refinancing existing debt and general corporate purposes, potentially strengthening T-Mobile’s financial position and operational flexibility.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
T-Mobile US Appoints Abdurazak Mudesir to Board
Neutral
Sep 25, 2025

On September 19, 2025, Abdurazak Mudesir was appointed to the Board of Directors of T-Mobile US, Inc. as a representative of Deutsche Telekom AG. This appointment is part of an agreement involving Deutsche Telekom and SoftBank Group Corp., reflecting the strategic partnerships influencing T-Mobile’s governance and potentially impacting its future operations.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
T-Mobile US Appoints New CEO Amid Leadership Transition
Neutral
Sep 22, 2025

On September 19, 2025, T-Mobile US announced the appointment of Srinivasan Gopalan as the new President and CEO, effective November 1, 2025. This leadership transition, part of a comprehensive succession plan, aims to continue T-Mobile’s growth strategy and digital transformation. Gopalan, who has served as COO since March 2025, brings extensive experience in technology and telecommunications, and will succeed Mike Sievert, who will transition to the role of Vice Chairman. Under Sievert’s leadership, T-Mobile achieved significant growth and market capitalization, becoming a leader in U.S. wireless and broadband sectors.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 12, 2025