tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
T Mobile US (TMUS)
NASDAQ:TMUS
Advertisement

T Mobile US (TMUS) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
7,928 Followers

Top Page

TM

T Mobile US

(NASDAQ:TMUS)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$263.00
▲(15.47%Upside)
T-Mobile US earns a strong overall score, primarily driven by its excellent financial performance and positive earnings call. The company's strategic growth initiatives and robust financial health bolster its position. Technical indicators present a mixed outlook, but valuation remains fair. The absence of significant corporate events means the focus remains on financial and operational strength.
Positive Factors
Business Performance
TMUS's wireless and wireline subscriber growth, expanding broadband services, and strategic acquisitions combined with increasing investments in AI-driven technologies to enhance network performance and customer experience will continue to drive accelerating business performance trends.
Customer Acquisition
TMUS continues to drive strong customer acquisition growth through a combination of its powerful marketing initiatives, its ultra-high-speed network, and the compelling value of its customer offerings.
Shareholder Returns
TMUS continues to drive value creation by deploying its cash and cash flow to fund ongoing capital investment, strategic acquisitions, and debt reduction and enhance shareholder returns through share repurchases.
Negative Factors
Competitive Position
TMUS is considered fiber deficient in a converged and bundled market, which could affect its competitive position.
Tax Changes
TMUS is expected to benefit the least from tax changes, putting it at a disadvantage compared to competitors.
Valuation
TMUS's premium valuation is seen as too high, especially given its slower growth in EBITDA and free cash flow compared to peers.

T Mobile US (TMUS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

T Mobile US Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionT-Mobile US, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile communications services in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United States Virgin Islands. The company offers voice, messaging, and data services to 108.7 million customers in the postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale markets. It also provides wireless devices, including smartphones, wearables, and tablets and other mobile communication devices, as well as wireless devices and accessories. In addition, the company offers services, devices, and accessories under the T-Mobile and Metro by T-Mobile brands through its owned and operated retail stores, T-Mobile app and customer care channels, and its websites. It also sells its devices to dealers and other third-party distributors for resale through independent third-party retail outlets and various third-party websites. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 102,000 macro cell and 41,000 small cell/distributed antenna system sites. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.
How the Company Makes MoneyT-Mobile US makes money primarily through the provision of wireless communication services, including mobile voice, messaging, and data services. The company's revenue model is based on offering service plans to customers on both postpaid and prepaid bases. Postpaid customers typically enter into long-term contracts, while prepaid customers pay in advance for their services. T-Mobile also generates revenue from the sale of mobile devices and accessories, including smartphones and tablets. Additionally, the company benefits from roaming agreements with other carriers and wholesale services offered to mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs). Strategic partnerships, such as the merger with Sprint, have expanded T-Mobile's network capacity and customer base, further enhancing its revenue potential.

T Mobile US Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Customers by Type
Customers by Type
Categorizes customers into segments such as postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale, providing a clear view of T-Mobile’s customer base composition and potential areas for growth or risk.
Chart InsightsT-Mobile's postpaid customer base has shown remarkable growth, especially since the Sprint merger in 2020, and continues to expand robustly. The latest earnings call highlights record postpaid phone net additions and a positive outlook for 2025, with expectations of significant customer growth and service revenue increases. Meanwhile, prepaid customer growth has accelerated recently, but concerns about immigration patterns could impact future growth. T-Mobile's strategic focus on network leadership and pricing strategies positions it well to maintain its competitive edge in the postpaid segment.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

T Mobile US Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -12.81%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
T-Mobile US delivered a strong quarter marked by record postpaid additions, robust 5G broadband growth, and financial performance that outpaced industry peers. Despite minor challenges with churn and wholesale revenue, the company raised its guidance and continued to lead in innovation with 5G advanced and digital transformation efforts.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Q1 Postpaid Net Additions
T-Mobile US achieved its best-ever Q1 for total postpaid net additions, setting a new record with 495,000 postpaid phone additions. This was accompanied by industry-leading growth in postpaid ARPA of nearly 4%, the highest Q1 in eight years.
Strong 5G Broadband Growth
T-Mobile US led the broadband industry for the thirteenth consecutive quarter with 424,000 net additions in 5G broadband, achieving the lowest churn ever and the highest Q1 ARPU growth in broadband.
Financial Performance and Guidance Upgrade
Postpaid service revenues grew 8% year over year, with overall service revenues up 5%. Core adjusted EBITDA rose 8%, and adjusted free cash flow hit a Q1 record of $4.4 billion. Guidance for full-year postpaid ARPA growth was increased to at least 3.5%.
Launch of T Fiber and 5G Advanced
T-Mobile US completed the acquisition of Lumos and is set to launch T Fiber, with plans to expand further through the Metronet transaction. They also became the first carrier to roll out 5G advanced nationwide.
AI and Digital Transformation
The TLIFE digital platform saw a significant increase in digital postpaid phone upgrades, and new AI features have reduced customer care needs, indicating successful progress toward long-term digital goals.
Negative Updates
Churn Concerns
Industry-wide churn was slightly elevated due to macroeconomic factors and increased device focus. However, T-Mobile US managed these dynamics effectively, resulting in temporary churn artifacts from legacy plan price increases.
Wholesale Revenue Decline
Wholesale and other service revenues faced declines due to expected reductions from Dish and TracFone, although underlying growth is anticipated to improve throughout the year.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, T-Mobile US demonstrated robust growth and provided guidance for the full year that reflects continued optimism in its strategic initiatives. The company anticipates total postpaid net customer additions between 5.5 to 6 million, with approximately half being postpaid phone net additions. Postpaid ARPA growth expectations have been raised to at least 3.5%, up from the prior guidance of around 3%, while postpaid phone ARPU is expected to grow by 1.5% this year, surpassing last year's growth of 1.1%. T-Mobile US projects core adjusted EBITDA between $33.2 billion and $33.7 billion, an increase of over 5% at the midpoint, alongside cash CapEx of approximately $9.5 billion. Adjusted free cash flow, including merger-related costs, is forecasted to range from $17.5 billion to $18 billion, underpinned by margin expansion and capital efficiency. The guidance also incorporates contributions from recent acquisitions such as Vistar, Bliss, and Lumos, with Lumos expected to be slightly accretive to service revenues and neutral to adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow this year.

T Mobile US Financial Statement Overview

Summary
T-Mobile US demonstrates strong financial performance with excellent profitability, as indicated by robust margins and revenue growth. The income statement shows a healthy growth trajectory, while the balance sheet reflects a leveraged but stable capital structure. Cash flow analysis indicates strong cash generation, though the high debt level requires careful management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
The income statement reflects strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 72.7%, net profit margin of 14.4%, and an impressive EBIT margin of 22.7% for TTM. Revenue growth is healthy at 5.1% from the previous year, indicating positive momentum. The EBITDA margin is robust at 33.9%, highlighting efficient operations. Overall, the company demonstrates excellent revenue growth and profitability, although potential risks could include maintaining this level of growth in a competitive industry.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.90, indicating a significant reliance on debt. However, the return on equity stands strong at 19.5%, suggesting efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio is moderate at 28.5%, reflecting a stable but leveraged capital structure. While the company maintains a solid return on equity, the high debt level poses a risk that needs monitoring.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
The cash flow statement displays a solid free cash flow growth rate of 20.0% and an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.02, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.00, showing efficient conversion of income to cash. Cash flow metrics are healthy, but the company should continue to manage capital expenditures carefully to sustain free cash flow growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue82.69B81.40B78.56B79.57B80.12B68.40B
Gross Profit52.73B51.75B45.89B43.37B43.51B40.13B
EBITDA31.54B31.04B26.93B27.13B26.38B23.58B
Net Income11.92B11.34B8.32B2.59B3.02B3.06B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets214.63B208.03B207.68B211.34B206.56B200.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments12.00B5.41B5.13B4.51B6.63B10.38B
Total Debt120.91B113.94B113.09B107.86B106.01B104.22B
Total Liabilities153.53B146.29B142.97B141.68B137.46B134.82B
Stockholders Equity61.10B61.74B64.72B69.66B69.10B65.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow11.98B9.98B7.75B-520.00M-7.78B-3.73B
Operating Cash Flow24.06B22.29B18.56B16.78B13.92B8.64B
Investing Cash Flow-10.69B-9.07B-5.83B-12.36B-19.39B-12.71B
Financing Cash Flow-7.96B-12.81B-12.10B-6.45B1.71B13.01B

T Mobile US Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price227.76
Price Trends
50DMA
237.84
Negative
100DMA
248.33
Negative
200DMA
236.58
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.44
Positive
RSI
40.75
Neutral
STOCH
13.26
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMUS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 227.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 231.29, below the 50-day MA of 237.84, and below the 200-day MA of 236.58, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.26 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMUS.

T Mobile US Risk Analysis

T Mobile US disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. T Mobile US reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

T Mobile US Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$130.64B8.5918.57%3.77%1.33%7.69%
VZVZ
78
Outperform
$175.48B9.8918.23%6.51%0.93%56.97%
76
Outperform
$258.61B22.2019.35%1.54%5.31%38.46%
71
Outperform
$60.04B10.8836.94%0.93%16.06%
AMAMX
71
Outperform
$53.66B32.108.54%3.12%0.19%-49.68%
TT
70
Outperform
$194.07B16.5611.38%4.12%0.50%-12.66%
62
Neutral
$40.75B-1.21-12.05%3.97%2.04%-69.68%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TMUS
T Mobile US
227.76
48.52
27.07%
AMX
America Movil
17.54
-0.06
-0.34%
T
AT&T
26.97
9.22
51.94%
CHTR
Charter Communications
392.20
67.61
20.83%
CMCSA
Comcast
34.99
-2.65
-7.04%
VZ
Verizon
41.62
3.40
8.90%

T Mobile US Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
T-Mobile US Extends Exchange Offers for USCC
Neutral
Jul 2, 2025

On July 2, 2025, T-Mobile US, Inc. announced the extension of its Exchange Offers and Consent Solicitations for United States Cellular Corporation’s outstanding senior notes, initially set to expire on July 1, 2025, now extended to August 1, 2025. This extension is part of T-Mobile’s strategic move to acquire USCC’s wireless operations and spectrum assets, reflecting its ongoing efforts to strengthen its market position and expand its network capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMUS) stock is a Buy with a $220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on T Mobile US stock, see the TMUS Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
T-Mobile Announces Preliminary Results of Exchange Offers
Neutral
Jun 16, 2025

On June 16, 2025, T-Mobile US, Inc. announced the preliminary results of its offers to exchange certain outstanding senior notes of United States Cellular Corporation (USCC) for new notes issued by T-Mobile USA. The exchange offers, part of a Securities Purchase Agreement, aim to acquire certain assets from USCC. As of June 13, 2025, a significant percentage of the old USCC notes were tendered, and consents were received to amend the indentures governing these notes. The amendments will become operative upon the closing of the acquisition, expected by mid-2025, pending regulatory approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMUS) stock is a Buy with a $220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on T Mobile US stock, see the TMUS Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
T-Mobile US Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
Jun 10, 2025

On June 6, 2025, T-Mobile US held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where two key proposals were addressed. The first proposal involved the election of 13 directors to the board, each to serve until the 2026 Annual Meeting, while the second proposal ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions are pivotal for the company’s governance and financial oversight, impacting its strategic direction and operational transparency.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMUS) stock is a Buy with a $220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on T Mobile US stock, see the TMUS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 10, 2025