T Mobile US (TMUS)
NASDAQ:TMUS
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T Mobile US
(NASDAQ:TMUS)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$209.00
▲(5.73% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/24/26
TMUS scores well on improving financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook with strong free-cash-flow and shareholder return plans. The score is held back by high leverage and weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation is supportive but not a major tailwind.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, materially higher operating cash flow and multi-year positive free cash flow create durable financial flexibility. Strong FCF funds capex, network investment and a large capital return program while enabling buybacks/dividends and de‑risking shortfalls from cyclical handset or promotional cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and rising absolute debt
High and rising absolute debt constrains financial optionality; interest and refinancing exposure reduce the cushion for execution risks, integration costs or unexpected capex. Maintaining targeted buybacks while servicing elevated leverage increases sensitivity to interest rate and cash‑flow swings over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, materially higher operating cash flow and multi-year positive free cash flow create durable financial flexibility. Strong FCF funds capex, network investment and a large capital return program while enabling buybacks/dividends and de‑risking shortfalls from cyclical handset or promotional cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
T Mobile US (TMUS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$209.13B
Dividend Yield1.75%
Average Volume (3M)5.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.8
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth8.49%
EPS Growth0.29%
CountryUS
Employees70,000
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding1,101,862,800
10 Day Avg. Volume5,436,318
30 Day Avg. Volume5,321,915
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio40.42
Price to Book (P/B)3.87
Price to Sales (P/S)2.59
P/FCF Ratio12.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.03
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$258.13Price Target Upside30.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)10.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$94.59B
T Mobile US Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
T-Mobile US, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile communications services in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United States Virgin Islands. The company offers voice, messaging, and data services to 108.7 million customers i...
How the Company Makes Money
T-Mobile US primarily makes money by selling wireless connectivity subscriptions and related services. Its largest revenue stream is service revenue from recurring monthly charges paid by customers on postpaid (contract-like monthly billing) and p...
T Mobile US Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Customers by Type
Categorizes customers into segments such as postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale, providing insight into customer base diversity and growth opportunities.
Categorizes customers into segments such as postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale, providing insight into customer base diversity and growth opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyT Mobile US Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial story: clear network leadership (speed and J.D. Power recognition), robust customer acquisition and account growth, accelerating digital/AI adoption, conservative financial planning, and material free cash flow with aggressive shareholder returns. Management acknowledged near-term integration, restructuring and promotional headwinds, and emphasized the conservative nature of guidance (M&A contributions included, and many new growth avenues excluded). The balance of substantial measurable wins and conservative, transparent planning leads to a positive view of the company's near‑ and mid‑term trajectory.Positive Updates
Industry-leading top-line and EBITDA performance
Q4 service revenue +10% year-over-year (5% organic); adjusted EBITDA +7% year-over-year (4% organic). Guidance: 2026 service revenue ~ $77B (≈8% reported growth, ≈6% organic) and 2026 adjusted EBITDA $37–37.5B (≈10% reported, ≈7% organic). Management expects >$10B service revenue growth and >$7B incremental core adjusted EBITDA from 2025→2027 at the high end.
Negative Updates
Churn normalization and short‑term elevation
Industry churn normalized in 2025; company saw churn upticks (Q4 increase noted, full‑year increase ~+7 basis points), albeit the smallest increase among the three major carriers. Elevated promotional activity in the quarter contributed to churn pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Industry-leading top-line and EBITDA performance
Q4 service revenue +10% year-over-year (5% organic); adjusted EBITDA +7% year-over-year (4% organic). Guidance: 2026 service revenue ~ $77B (≈8% reported growth, ≈6% organic) and 2026 adjusted EBITDA $37–37.5B (≈10% reported, ≈7% organic). Management expects >$10B service revenue growth and >$7B incremental core adjusted EBITDA from 2025→2027 at the high end.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company updated multi-year guidance centered on strong top-line and cash generation: for 2026 it expects ~ $77B in service revenue (≈8% reported growth, ~6% organic, including ~$3.6B M&A contribution) and for 2027 $80.5–81.5B (≈5% reported, including ~$4B M&A, ~5% organic); it targets 900k–1.0M postpaid net account additions in 2026 (implying ~2.5M postpaid phone net adds) with postpaid ARPA growth of 2.5–3%, and noted Q4/2025 postpaid ARPA was +2.7% (organic +3.6%). Core adjusted EBITDA is guided to $37–37.5B in 2026 (≈10% reported, 7% organic, ~$1.3B M&A) and expands toward ~$40–41B in 2027 (9% reported, 8% organic, ~$1.7B M&A); Q1 core adjusted EBITDA is expected at $9.0–9.1B. The company forecasts ~ $10B CapEx in 2026 ($9–10B range), adjusted free cash flow of $18.0–18.7B in 2026 and $19.5–20.5B in 2027, and continues to convert service revenue to free cash flow at industry-leading rates (25% for 2025, 22% in Q4); it assumes prudent 2.5x leverage with cash interest of ~$4.3B (2026) and ~$5.0B (2027). Integration and one-time items include ~ $1.2B merger-related costs, ~$450M network optimization charges, ~$150M workforce restructuring (Q1), and ~$1.3B merger-related cash outlays in 2026; cash taxes are ~$1.5B (2026) and ~$3.5B (2027). Efficiency initiatives (AI/digital/Intense CX) are expected to deliver roughly $1.3B incremental savings in 2026 and $2.7B in 2027. Capital allocation leaves a >$52B envelope for 2026–27 with up to ~$30B for shareholder returns (roughly up to $10B/year in buybacks); Q1 buybacks are accelerated to $5B, and remaining flexible deployment capacity is ~ $22B. On broadband, management now sees 15M FWA customers by 2030 (up from prior targets), plus 3–4M fiber customers for a total broadband base of ~18–19M by 2030.T Mobile US Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 88.31B | 81.40B | 78.56B | 79.57B | 80.12B |
| Gross Profit | 42.07B | 51.75B | 48.37B | 43.37B | 43.51B |
| EBITDA | 32.25B | 31.04B | 27.15B | 20.16B | 23.08B |
| Net Income | 10.99B | 11.34B | 8.32B | 2.59B | 3.02B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 219.24B | 208.03B | 207.68B | 211.34B | 206.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.60B | 5.41B | 5.13B | 4.51B | 6.63B |
| Total Debt | 122.27B | 114.40B | 113.83B | 111.79B | 108.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 160.03B | 146.29B | 142.97B | 141.68B | 137.46B |
| Stockholders Equity | 59.20B | 61.74B | 64.72B | 69.66B | 69.10B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 18.00B | 9.98B | 7.75B | -520.00M | -7.78B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 27.95B | 22.29B | 18.56B | 16.78B | 13.92B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.61B | -9.07B | -5.83B | -12.36B | -19.39B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -10.08B | -12.81B | -12.10B | -6.45B | 1.71B |
T Mobile US Technical Analysis
Negative
197.67
Price Trends
208.96
Negative
202.95
Negative
216.92
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.51
Positive
42.36
Neutral
45.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMUS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 197.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 202.47, below the 50-day MA of 208.96, and below the 200-day MA of 216.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMUS.
T Mobile US Risk Analysis
T Mobile US disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. T Mobile US reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
T Mobile US Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $98.45B | 11.94 | 19.63% | 4.42% | 1.39% | 24.78% | |
71 Outperform | $209.13B | 20.84 | 18.18% | 1.75% | 8.49% | 0.29% | |
71 Outperform | $81.62B | 14.75 | 17.05% | 2.69% | 9.51% | 188.07% | |
71 Outperform | $195.62B | 10.02 | 16.62% | 6.60% | 2.85% | -2.51% | |
67 Neutral | $182.97B | 13.11 | 19.37% | 4.56% | 2.92% | 83.12% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
52 Neutral | $25.43B | 4.97 | 32.09% | ― | -0.92% | 3.13% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TMUS
T Mobile US
182.75
-50.04
-21.50%
AMX
America Movil
25.81
9.11
54.55%
T
AT&T
25.52
-0.60
-2.30%
CHTR
Charter Communications
174.61
-202.26
-53.67%
CMCSA
Comcast
27.51
-2.80
-9.23%
VZ
Verizon
47.10
7.39
18.60%
T Mobile US Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividends
T-Mobile Expands 2026 Shareholder Capital Return Program
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
On April 23, 2026, T-Mobile US announced that its board had raised the size of its 2026 shareholder return program by up to $3.6 billion, lifting the total potential capital return from as much as $14.6 billion to up to $18.2 billion through Decem...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
T-Mobile US Streamlines Debt Guarantees and Capital Structure
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On March 31, 2026, T-Mobile USA, Inc. restructured its debt guarantee framework by releasing guarantees of certain subsidiaries under its $10 billion revolving credit agreement, after previously repaying legacy indebtedness. This action triggered ...
Executive/Board Changes
T-Mobile US Announces Upcoming Board Member Resignation
Neutral
Mar 27, 2026
On March 26, 2026, T-Mobile US disclosed that Abdurazak Mudesir had informed the Board of Directors of his decision to resign from the Board and from the Nominating, Corporate Governance and Compliance Committee, effective March 31, 2026. The comp...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
T-Mobile US Completes €2.5 Billion Euro Bond Offering
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, T-Mobile USA, a wholly owned subsidiary of T-Mobile US, closed a euro-denominated bond offering totaling €2.5 billion, issuing €750 million of 3.200% senior notes due 2032, €750 million of 3.625% senior note...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
T-Mobile Raises Multi-Year Growth Outlook, Boosts Buybacks
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, T-Mobile used its fourth quarter 2025 earnings call and Capital Markets Day Update in New York to raise its multi-year growth outlook, citing strong progress since its September 2024 plan, including 2023–2025 compound a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.