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Third Coast Bancshares Inc (TCBX)
:TCBX
US Market

Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) AI Stock Analysis

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Third Coast Bancshares

(NASDAQ:TCBX)

Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$38.00
▲(9.10%Upside)
Third Coast Bancshares exhibits strong financial health with consistent growth and effective management strategies. The stock's technical analysis points to positive momentum, although it may be approaching overbought levels. Valuation metrics suggest the stock is reasonably priced, with earnings call highlights reinforcing a positive outlook despite some operational challenges.

Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Third Coast Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThird Coast Bancshares, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Third Coast Bank, SSB that provides various commercial banking solutions to small and medium-sized businesses, and professionals. The company's deposit products include checking, savings, individual retirement, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. It also offers commercial and industrial loans, such as equipment loans, working capital, auto finance, and commercial finance. In addition, the company provides treasury management consumer and commercial online banking services, mobile applications, safe deposit boxes, and wire transfer services, as well as debit cards. It operates through eleven branches in Greater Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Austin-San Antonio; and one branch in Detroit, Texas. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Humble, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyThird Coast Bancshares generates revenue primarily through interest income from its lending activities. This includes interest earned on loans such as commercial and industrial loans, real estate loans, and consumer loans. Additionally, the company earns non-interest income through fees and services associated with its deposit products, treasury management services, and other financial services. The bank also benefits from strategic partnerships and local market penetration, which enhance its ability to attract deposits and lend to a diversified client base. By maintaining a strong focus on local businesses and individuals, Third Coast Bancshares leverages its community relationships to drive growth and profitability.

Third Coast Bancshares Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 14.16%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a largely positive sentiment with significant highlights such as the successful execution of a commercial real estate loan securitization, improved credit quality, and increased net interest margin. However, there are some challenges, including a decline in deposits and an increase in non-interest expenses. Overall, the positive aspects outweigh the negatives, indicating a strong strategic direction and effective management.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Commercial Real Estate Loan Securitization
Third Coast executed a significant commercial real estate loan securitization, providing increased flexibility in managing the balance sheet and capital ratios, generating fee income, and positively impacting the net interest margin.
Improved Credit Quality
Non-performing loans declined by $9.3 million, improving the non-performing loans to total loans ratio by 23 basis points. Non-performing assets to total assets declined by two basis points to 0.56%.
Net Interest Margin Improvement
Net interest margin improved by nine basis points to 3.80% in the first quarter, demonstrating effective management of interest income and expenses.
Book Value and Tangible Book Value Growth
Book value and tangible book value grew by 4.4% and 4.7% respectively over the prior quarter, and by 14.3% and 15.2% compared to the same period last year.
Strong Loan Growth in April
Loan growth in April exceeded $50 million, indicating strong demand and effective management of loan portfolios.
Negative Updates
Decline in Deposits
Deposits declined by $62 million for the quarter, resulting in a loan-to-deposit ratio of 93.9%.
Increase in Non-Interest Expenses
Non-interest expenses increased by 3.2% or $878,000 in the first quarter and were up 8.5% or $2.2 million from the same quarter last year.
Flat Net Income
First-quarter net income was $12.4 million, essentially flat versus the fourth quarter of 2020.
Company Guidance
During the Third Coast Bancshares First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and guidance for the remainder of the year. The net interest margin improved by nine basis points to 3.80% in the first quarter, with expectations of an additional five basis points improvement in the second quarter due to a successful commercial real estate loan securitization. The bank reported a net income of $12.4 million, an ROA of 1.17%, and a return on equity of 12.4%. Non-interest expenses increased by 3.2% from the previous quarter. The loan-to-deposit ratio was 93.9%, and period-end loan growth was $21.6 million, with quarterly average growth better at $42.5 million. For the rest of 2025, Third Coast Bancshares aims for $325 million in loan growth and is considering a share buyback program due to strong capital positions. The company remains focused on disciplined loan growth, robust credit management, and enhancing shareholder value, with book value and tangible book value increasing by 4.4% and 4.7% respectively from the prior quarter.

Third Coast Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Third Coast Bancshares shows strong revenue and net income growth, with a solid balance sheet marked by no debt in 2024. Positive cash flow indicates healthy operations, despite negative cash flows from investing due to substantial capital investments. Operational and capital structure improvements could enhance stability.
Income Statement
72
Positive
The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, rising from $34.3M in 2019 to $328.4M in 2024. The Net Profit Margin is solid at 14.5% for 2024, showing efficient cost management. However, the EBIT margin has fluctuated, with a decrease in 2023, indicating some operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet is robust with no total debt in 2024, reflecting a strong equity position. The Equity Ratio is moderate, at 9.3%, which suggests a balanced approach to leveraging assets. However, the Stockholders' Equity has not grown proportionally to total assets, indicating potential capital structure issues.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
The Free Cash Flow has shown positive growth, with a significant increase from negative figures in previous years to $35.1M in 2024. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is 0.74, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. However, cash flow from investing activities remains negative, suggesting heavy investment or asset acquisition.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue328.36M141.41M122.34M93.12M69.19M
Gross Profit328.36M141.41M122.34M93.12M69.19M
EBITDA0.000.000.000.0017.28M
Net Income47.67M33.40M18.66M11.42M12.12M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.94B4.40B3.77B2.50B1.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments755.18M411.85M176.07M353.30M226.99M
Total Debt132.53M141.71M129.43M1.00M33.88M
Total Liabilities4.48B3.98B3.39B1.44M1.75B
Stockholders Equity460.72M411.97M381.78M299.01M121.72M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow33.37M35.64M9.60M-1.04M-5.01M
Operating Cash Flow35.14M39.08M21.79M4.58M-3.65M
Investing Cash Flow-520.93M-529.53M-1.24B-500.06M-500.01M
Financing Cash Flow495.15M570.29M1.22B618.94M611.16M

Third Coast Bancshares Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price34.83
Price Trends
50DMA
31.34
Positive
100DMA
32.05
Positive
200DMA
32.34
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.08
Negative
RSI
69.53
Neutral
STOCH
90.95
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCBX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.21, above the 50-day MA of 31.34, and above the 200-day MA of 32.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.95 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TCBX.

Third Coast Bancshares Risk Analysis

Third Coast Bancshares disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Third Coast Bancshares reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Third Coast Bancshares Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$481.81M13.2111.27%15.07%53.76%
79
Outperform
$447.05M9.7714.36%2.16%12.02%26.09%
78
Outperform
$540.33M13.0016.22%2.58%23.96%47.39%
67
Neutral
$448.93M24.882.27%3.71%24.39%-56.57%
58
Neutral
HK$90.78B5.10-3.21%5.32%7.36%-55.21%
52
Neutral
$425.59M16.43-6.53%6.98%-5.55%-242.39%
52
Neutral
$452.30M-8.68%0.18%3.61%65.61%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TCBX
Third Coast Bancshares
35.29
14.27
67.89%
FBIZ
First Business Financial
53.70
19.05
54.98%
FFIC
Flushing Financial
12.70
0.76
6.37%
NRIM
Northrim Bancorp
97.35
42.83
78.56%
FFWM
First Foundation
5.53
0.39
7.59%
COFS
ChoiceOne Financial Services
30.01
4.99
19.94%

Third Coast Bancshares Corporate Events

Dividends
Third Coast Bancshares Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
Jun 26, 2025

On June 26, 2025, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $17.0625 per share on its 6.75% Series A Convertible Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock. The dividend, payable on July 15, 2025, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its shareholders and may impact its financial strategy and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCBX) stock is a Buy with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Third Coast Bancshares stock, see the TCBX Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
Third Coast Bancshares Announces New Share Repurchase Program
Neutral
Jun 17, 2025

On June 17, 2025, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. announced a new share repurchase program authorized by its Board of Directors, allowing the company to buy back up to $30 million of its common stock by May 22, 2026. The program, which received non-objection from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, offers flexibility in repurchase methods and is subject to various factors, potentially impacting the company’s capital strategy and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCBX) stock is a Buy with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Third Coast Bancshares stock, see the TCBX Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Third Coast Bancshares Completes $150M Securitization Deal
Positive
Jun 4, 2025

On June 3, 2025, Third Coast Bank, a subsidiary of Third Coast Bancshares, Inc., entered into a $150 million securitization transaction involving commercial real estate loans. This transaction, sponsored by EJF Capital LLC, is expected to reduce the Bank’s risk-weighted assets and loan concentration risk, while diversifying its loan portfolio. The transaction highlights the Bank’s strategic efforts to enhance its financial stability and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCBX) stock is a Buy with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Third Coast Bancshares stock, see the TCBX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Third Coast Bancshares Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
May 23, 2025

On May 22, 2025, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and financial oversight. The shareholders elected new members to the board of directors across different classes, with terms extending to the 2026, 2027, and 2028 annual meetings, respectively. Additionally, the shareholders ratified the appointment of Whitley Penn LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCBX) stock is a Hold with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Third Coast Bancshares stock, see the TCBX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025