Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $585.40M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 64.65K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: 9.12%
• EPS Growth: 45.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 376
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.02
• Shares Outstanding: 13,895,078
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 90,077
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 64,654
• PEG Ratio: 0.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.73
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.24
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.81
• 1Y Price Target: $45.00
• Price Target Upside: 6.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $249.24M

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $47.00 ▲(11.56% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (profitability and low leverage) and supportive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Earnings call commentary adds strength via constructive 2026 growth targets and improving funding/credit trends, partially offset by expected merger-related expense pressure and a likely near-term NIM decline; valuation appears reasonable but lacks dividend-yield support.

Positive Factors

Loan Growth

Sustained double-digit loan growth expands the interest-earning asset base, driving durable net interest income and cross-sell opportunities. Management’s 2026 loan target (~8% annualized) underpins medium-term revenue scalability and supports franchise expansion across Texas markets.

Low Leverage / Capital

Very low leverage and solid ROE provide a structural buffer against credit stress and rate volatility, enabling disciplined lending and M&A. Strong capital cushions support regulatory flexibility, potential share issuance for deals, and continued balance-sheet-backed growth without immediate reliance on costly external funding.

Profitability & Fee Momentum

High margins and accelerating noninterest income (fee run-rate strength) diversify revenue beyond NII, improving earnings resilience if NIM compresses. Operational improvements (core system, dynamic pricing) should help sustain margins and convert fee gains into durable recurring revenue streams.

Negative Factors

Merger-Related Costs & Integration Risk

Ongoing merger expenses and governance changes can pressure operating earnings and distract management from organic initiatives. Integration complexity and retention costs can raise the structural expense base and create execution risk that may depress near- to mid-term profitability and customer retention.

Weaker Free Cash Flow Growth

Negative free cash flow growth constrains internal funding for loan growth, securitizations, and capital returns. Even with good cash conversion ratios, declining FCF momentum reduces flexibility for investments or buffering credit cycles, increasing reliance on deposit funding or external capital over time.

Securitization & Yield Mix Risk

Selling loans via securitizations reduces on‑balance interest-earning assets and can lower long-term net interest margin and recurring NII. While concentration risk is addressed, repeated offloads may structurally shift earnings toward fee income and add timing volatility to reported margins and cash flows.

Third Coast Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Third Coast Bank, SSB that provides various commercial banking solutions to small and medium-sized businesses, and professionals. The company's deposit products include checking, savings, individual retirement, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. It also offers commercial and industrial loans, such as equipment loans, working capital, auto finance, and commercial finance. In addition, the company provides treasury management consumer and commercial online banking services, mobile applications, safe deposit boxes, and wire transfer services, as well as debit cards. It operates through eleven branches in Greater Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Austin-San Antonio; and one branch in Detroit, Texas. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Humble, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Third Coast Bancshares generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and fees associated with various banking services. The company issues loans to both individuals and businesses, which typically carry interest rates that contribute significantly to its overall earnings. Additionally, TCBX earns non-interest income through service fees, transaction fees, and other financial products offered to customers. The bank also engages in mortgage lending, which adds another layer of revenue through origination fees and interest on mortgage loans. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance its market presence and can lead to increased customer acquisition and retention, further contributing to its financial performance.

Third Coast Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid profitability and revenue growth with a low-leverage balance sheet (very low debt-to-equity; strong ROE). The main offset is weaker cash-flow momentum (declining free cash flow growth) and some margin/cost pressure signals.

Income Statement

Third Coast Bancshares has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 3.19%. The company maintains strong profitability, reflected in a TTM net profit margin of 17.48% and an EBIT margin of 33.98%. However, the gross profit margin has decreased over time, indicating potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0.036 in the TTM, indicating low leverage and financial stability. Return on equity is strong at 12.74%, suggesting effective use of equity. However, the equity ratio is not provided, limiting a full assessment of asset financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by -4.89% in the TTM, which could be a concern. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.21 indicates good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.99, suggesting efficient cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	358.81M	338.07M	274.08M	160.18M	103.19M	83.55M
Gross Profit	191.30M	164.77M	140.74M	110.49M	83.20M	61.64M
EBITDA	89.27M	65.97M	45.56M	25.72M	14.21M	15.69M
Net Income	62.13M	47.67M	33.40M	18.66M	11.42M	12.12M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.06B	4.94B	4.40B	3.77B	2.50B	1.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	500.00M	755.54M	475.01M	505.93M	353.30M	226.99M
Total Debt	132.52M	132.53M	141.71M	129.43M	1.00M	33.88M
Total Liabilities	4.55B	4.48B	3.98B	3.39B	2.20B	1.75B
Stockholders Equity	513.83M	460.72M	411.97M	381.78M	299.01M	121.72M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	39.30M	33.37M	35.64M	9.60M	-1.04M	-5.01M
Operating Cash Flow	41.47M	35.14M	39.08M	21.79M	4.58M	-3.65M
Investing Cash Flow	-564.69M	-520.93M	-529.53M	-1.24B	-500.06M	-500.01M
Financing Cash Flow	375.77M	495.15M	570.29M	1.22B	618.94M	611.16M

Third Coast Bancshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 42.13
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCBX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.48, above the 50-day MA of 39.17, and above the 200-day MA of 36.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TCBX.

Third Coast Bancshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CBNK	77 Outperform	$523.88M	9.30	14.72%	1.53%	24.90%	28.06%
TCBX	74 Outperform	$585.40M	11.76	13.37%	―	9.12%	45.83%
FMNB	72 Outperform	$490.24M	8.98	12.00%	4.95%	3.93%	17.48%
BCAL	72 Outperform	$592.15M	9.49	11.93%	―	61.29%	―
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
WASH	61 Neutral	$671.17M	13.01	10.02%	7.17%	-27.82%	-159.63%
FISI	59 Neutral	$683.43M	9.40	-4.98%	3.89%	-28.00%	-174.60%

Third Coast Bancshares Corporate Events

Third Coast Bancshares Completes Keystone Merger, Expands Texas Footprint

On February 1, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. completed its previously announced merger with Keystone Bancshares, Inc., folding Keystone and its subsidiary Keystone Bank into Third Coast’s corporate and bank structure in a multi-step transaction valued at approximately 2.6 million Third Coast shares and $20 million in cash. The deal, which lifted the combined company’s total assets to more than $6 billion, expands Third Coast Bank’s Texas footprint by adding Keystone’s three branches in Austin and Ballinger and a loan production office in Bastrop, while also integrating Keystone’s shareholders and equity award holders into Third Coast’s capital structure through a mix of stock and cash consideration. Governance and leadership were reshaped as the boards of both the holding company and the bank were enlarged to 16 members, with former Keystone chairman and CEO Jeff Wilkinson and director Clint Greenleaf joining the boards, and Wilkinson signing an employment agreement to serve as Chairman – Austin Market alongside a significant retention and incentive package. Former Keystone President Bryan St. George has taken on the role of President of Commercial Services at Third Coast Bank, underscoring the strategic emphasis on commercial banking as Third Coast begins integrating operations and preparing to migrate Keystone customers to its platform while maintaining service through existing Keystone channels in the interim.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCBX) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Third Coast Bancshares stock, see the TCBX Stock Forecast page.

Third Coast Shareholders Approve Keystone Bancshares Merger Plan

On January 23, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. held a special meeting of shareholders to vote on proposals related to its previously announced Agreement and Plan of Reorganization, dated October 22, 2025, under which Arch Merger Sub, Inc. will merge with Keystone Bancshares, Inc., leaving Keystone as a wholly owned subsidiary of Third Coast. Of the 13,895,078 outstanding shares of common stock as of the December 18, 2025 record date, holders of 8,578,742 shares were present or represented by proxy, constituting a quorum, and shareholders overwhelmingly approved the issuance of new Third Coast common shares required to complete the Keystone merger, including the share issuance threshold under NYSE Listing Rule 312.03, while an adjournment proposal was not needed; completion of the merger still depends on satisfying or waiving the remaining closing conditions in the reorganization agreement, marking a key step toward expanding Third Coast’s banking footprint and corporate structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCBX) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Third Coast Bancshares stock, see the TCBX Stock Forecast page.

Third Coast Bancshares Reports Record 2025 Earnings Growth

On January 21, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares reported strong results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighted by record annual net income of $66.3 million and record diluted earnings per share of $3.79, up sharply from 2024. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the bank posted net income of $17.9 million, a solid return on average assets of 1.36% and a stable net interest margin of 4.10%, with higher net interest income driven by lower deposit costs and increased noninterest income from loan fees, partly offset by merger-related legal, professional and compensation expenses. The balance sheet expanded meaningfully in 2025, with total assets rising 8.1% to $5.34 billion, gross loans climbing 10.8% to $4.39 billion—led by commercial and industrial, real estate and municipal lending—and deposits growing 7.3% to $4.63 billion, while asset quality metrics improved as nonperforming loans declined to 0.49% of total loans. Book value and tangible book value per share advanced 16.8% and 17.7%, respectively, year over year, signaling strengthened capital and earnings power for shareholders as the company continues to position itself as a high-performing regional banking franchise.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCBX) stock is a Hold with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Third Coast Bancshares stock, see the TCBX Stock Forecast page.

Third Coast Bancshares addresses merger disclosure challenges

On October 22, 2025, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. agreed to a reorganization with Keystone Bancshares, Inc., and, following the effectiveness of its Form S-4 on December 19, 2025, it scheduled special shareholder meetings for January 23 and January 29, 2026, for Third Coast and Keystone investors, respectively, to vote on the proposed merger. Between December 4, 2025, and January 16, 2026, Third Coast received four demand letters from purported shareholders alleging that the joint proxy statement/prospectus omitted material information, but the company and Keystone rejected the claims while nonetheless issuing supplemental disclosures that expand detail on Raymond James’ valuation work, comparable company and transaction analyses, projected financials, and fee arrangements, in order to neutralize the disclosure challenges without altering the merger terms or meeting timetable; the pro forma analysis indicated modest dilution to tangible book value at March 31, 2026, but earnings accretion in 2027 and 2028, suggesting a financially favorable profile for the combined bank despite the disclosure dispute.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCBX) stock is a Buy with a $47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Third Coast Bancshares stock, see the TCBX Stock Forecast page.

Third Coast Bancshares Declares Quarterly Preferred Stock Dividend

On December 18, 2025, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $17.25 per share on its 6.75% Series A Convertible Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, payable on January 15, 2026 to shareholders of record as of December 31, 2025. The move underscores the company’s continued commitment to returning capital to preferred shareholders and signals confidence in the stability of its capital position and ongoing banking operations in its key Texas markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCBX) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Third Coast Bancshares stock, see the TCBX Stock Forecast page.

Third Coast Bancshares EVP Announces Retirement

On December 1, 2025, Vicki Alexander, Executive Vice President and Chief Risk and Operations Officer at Third Coast Bank, announced her retirement effective December 31, 2025. In light of her departure, the bank has initiated the search for her successors, while her responsibilities will be temporarily managed by the existing management team. Alexander will receive a severance package, including cash and coverage costs, contingent upon compliance with the Separation Agreement.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCBX) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Third Coast Bancshares stock, see the TCBX Stock Forecast page.