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Third Coast Bancshares
(NYSE:TCBX)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$44.00
▲(2.92% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/23/26
The score is anchored by strong operating momentum and constructive guidance from the latest earnings call (NIM expansion, efficiency gains, deposit mix improvement) plus an attractive P/E valuation. Offsetting these positives, the largest constraint is the TTM cash-flow deterioration and negative free cash flow, which raises earnings-quality risk despite strong reported profitability. Technical indicators are broadly neutral-to-slightly positive, providing limited additional support.
Positive Factors
Margin expansion and improved funding mix
Sustained NIM expansion plus lower deposit costs and strong deposit inflows indicate structural funding advantages. A stickier, low-cost deposit mix supports durable interest spread resilience, reducing reliance on wholesale funding and helping margins through varying rate cycles.
Negative Factors
Deteriorating cash generation / negative free cash flow
A sudden collapse in cash conversion weakens earnings quality and constrains internal funding for loans, dividends, or buybacks. Persistent negative FCF increases reliance on external funding, heightening liquidity and refinancing risk during stress periods over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin expansion and improved funding mix
Sustained NIM expansion plus lower deposit costs and strong deposit inflows indicate structural funding advantages. A stickier, low-cost deposit mix supports durable interest spread resilience, reducing reliance on wholesale funding and helping margins through varying rate cycles.
Read all positive factors
Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$727.40M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)135.22K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.6
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth16.80%
EPS Growth24.02%
CountryUS
Employees412
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.58
Shares Outstanding16,592,072
10 Day Avg. Volume126,282
30 Day Avg. Volume135,224
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.20
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)1.43
P/FCF Ratio10.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.00Price Target Upside12.28% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$256.71M
Third Coast Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) is a bank holding company for Third Coast Bank, SSB, a Texas-based financial institution that provides commercial banking products and services. The company operates in the financial services sector, focusing pr...
How the Company Makes Money
Third Coast Bancshares makes money primarily through its banking subsidiary by earning interest income and fee-based (noninterest) income, while incurring funding and operating costs. (1) Net interest income: The core earnings driver is typically ...
Third Coast Bancshares Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple clear operational and financial improvements — record EPS, strong net interest income (+12.4% QoQ), loan and deposit growth, NIM expansion to 3.83%, efficiency gains (56.5% vs 66.1%), successful completion of strategic milestones (TCC sale, securitization activity, Keystone conversion), and stable credit metrics (NPLs down to 0.55%, net recoveries). Challenges noted were manageable: a $17.1M OREO transfer, limited stress in parts of the SBA portfolio, some non-recurring integration and securitization costs (~$0.5M–$1M), and the natural variability in loan growth due to securitizations. Overall, positives materially outweigh the negatives, with management projecting continued disciplined growth and margin support from funding improvements and securitizations.Positive Updates
Record EPS
Diluted earnings per share reached a record $1.08 in 2Q26 (benefited by a $3.5M gain on sale of TCC assets), with management highlighting both the one-time gain and strong core operating performance.
Negative Updates
Non-Accrual Additions and OREO Transfer
Three relationships totaling $10.1M were placed on non-accrual and a $17.1M loan was transferred to other real estate owned (OREO); while management expects these to be well secured and recoverable, the $17M OREO remains a credit item to monitor.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record EPS
Diluted earnings per share reached a record $1.08 in 2Q26 (benefited by a $3.5M gain on sale of TCC assets), with management highlighting both the one-time gain and strong core operating performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's forward guidance emphasized continued disciplined growth and margin improvement: they reiterated a targeted quarterly loan growth run-rate of roughly $75–$125 million (recognizing $200 million quarters are the exception), noted net interest margin outperformed prior guidance at 3.83% (above the 3.75% target) and said NIM should be flat to modestly up in Q3 excluding benefit from securitizations (they closed a third securitization on July 15 and expect another likely in August, which should boost NIM); expense guidance is for roughly flat non-interest expense in Q3 with systems-integration savings of $100k/month starting August 1 and an additional $150k/month starting February 1, 2027 (Q2 included $0.5–$1.0M of nonrecurring costs), efficiency improved to 56.5% from 66.1% with a goal below 55% and non-interest expense to average earning assets targeted toward ~2.25% (from ~2.44%); funding and liquidity trends should remain supportive (total deposits +$140.4M QoQ, non‑interest‑bearing demand +$65.5M and ~+50% YoY, deposit cost down 12 bps), and credit metrics are expected to remain sound (total loans +$185M QoQ to $5.44B, C&I 44% of loans, allowance for credit losses $53.6M or 0.99% of loans, provision $2.1M, NPLs 0.55% vs 0.68%, net recoveries $150k), all while continuing to hire ~5 commercial bankers next quarter; they also highlighted Q2 results including net interest income $60.3M (+12.4% QoQ), fee income run‑rate ~$4–4.5M, a $3.5M gain on the TCC sale (total consideration ~$27.5M), and record diluted EPS of $1.08.Third Coast Bancshares Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 384.76M | 366.95M | 338.07M | 274.08M | 160.18M | 103.19M |
| Gross Profit | 214.70M | 202.79M | 164.77M | 140.74M | 110.49M | 83.20M |
| EBITDA | 92.07M | 90.04M | 65.97M | 45.56M | 25.72M | 14.21M |
| Net Income | 69.07M | 66.29M | 47.67M | 33.40M | 18.66M | 11.42M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.58B | 5.34B | 4.94B | 4.40B | 3.77B | 2.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 734.70M | 399.38M | 755.54M | 475.01M | 505.93M | 353.30M |
| Total Debt | 157.57M | 136.97M | 132.53M | 141.71M | 129.43M | 1.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.93B | 4.81B | 4.48B | 3.98B | 3.39B | 2.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 650.53M | 531.03M | 460.72M | 411.97M | 381.78M | 299.01M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -14.65M | 48.16M | 33.37M | 35.64M | 9.60M | -1.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.66M | 50.84M | 35.14M | 39.08M | 21.79M | 4.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -544.82M | -610.20M | -520.93M | -529.53M | -1.24B | -500.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 645.10M | 319.39M | 495.15M | 570.29M | 1.22B | 618.94M |
Third Coast Bancshares Technical Analysis
Positive
42.75
Price Trends
40.07
Positive
39.24
Positive
39.22
Positive
Market Momentum
1.06
Negative
64.43
Neutral
89.80
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCBX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.32, above the 50-day MA of 40.07, and above the 200-day MA of 39.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.80 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TCBX.
Third Coast Bancshares Risk Analysis
Third Coast Bancshares disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Third Coast Bancshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
Third Coast Bancshares Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $608.03M | 10.88 | 13.85% | 1.33% | 11.76% | 26.80% | |
78 Outperform | $685.11M | 11.45 | 10.59% | ― | -2.10% | 110.42% | |
75 Outperform | $817.01M | 10.14 | 10.66% | 3.10% | 46.45% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $939.15M | 11.01 | 9.53% | 4.48% | 16.77% | 9.62% | |
69 Neutral | $727.40M | 18.58 | 12.56% | ― | 16.80% | 24.02% | |
68 Neutral | $743.18M | 13.40 | 10.18% | 5.83% | 27.46% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
TCBX
Third Coast Bancshares
43.84
7.11
19.36%
FMNB
Farmers National Banc Oh
15.86
3.13
24.57%
FISI
Financial Institutions
41.46
17.34
71.88%
WASH
Washington Bancorp
38.98
13.86
55.18%
BCAL
California BanCorp
21.30
6.55
44.40%
CBNK
Capital Bancorp
37.33
6.59
21.45%
Third Coast Bancshares Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Third Coast Bancshares Posts Strong Quarterly Earnings Growth
Positive
Jul 22, 2026
In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares reported strong financial performance, posting net income of $22.0 million and record diluted earnings per share of $1.08, up from both the prior quarter and year-ago period. Return on ave...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Third Coast Bancshares Sells Factoring Subsidiary, Refocuses Strategy
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
On July 13, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. announced that it had closed the sale of substantially all assets of its wholly owned subsidiary Third Coast Commercial Capital, Inc. to Gulf Coast Bank Trust Company, effective June 25, 2026. The de...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Third Coast Bancshares Extends $30 Million Share Repurchase
Positive
Jul 2, 2026
On July 2, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. announced that its board had approved the continuation of a share repurchase program authorizing the company to buy up to $30 million of its common stock through June 30, 2027. Management has notified ...
Dividends
Third Coast Bancshares Declares Quarterly Preferred Stock Dividend
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
On June 18, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $17.0625 per share on its 6.75% Series A Convertible Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock. The dividend will be paid on July 15, 2026 to shareh...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Third Coast Bancshares Shareholders Approve Updated Incentive Plan
Positive
May 21, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares shareholders approved an amended and restated 2019 Omnibus Incentive Plan that increases the pool of common shares available for equity awards by 375,000 and introduces tighter governance features, including...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Third Coast Bancshares Expands and Extends Key Loan Agreement
Positive
May 1, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. renewed and modified its existing loan agreement with American National Bank Trust, under which it had $54.875 million outstanding and had pledged all of Third Coast Bank’s capital stock as co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.