Third Coast Bancshares Inc (TCBX)
NYSE:TCBX
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Third Coast Bancshares
(NYSE:TCBX)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
▼(-2.66% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/22/26
The score is held back primarily by the sharp TTM cash-flow reversal despite strong reported profitability, and a mixed technical trend with negative MACD and price below key moving averages. Offsetting these are attractive valuation (low P/E) and generally positive earnings-call guidance on growth, fees, and merger cost saves, though near-term margin pressure and a large CRE nonaccrual remain notable risks.
Positive Factors
Improving capital and ROE
Rising equity and materially higher ROE reflect stronger capital cushions and profitable deployment of capital. A conservatively levered balance sheet with improving returns supports capacity to absorb losses, fund organic loan growth, and pursue acquisitions over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Sharp cash-flow deterioration
A steep TTM drop in operating and free cash flow signals earnings are not translating into liquidity. Persistent weak cash conversion can strain funding for loan growth, constrain capital deployment and raise refinancing or contingency funding needs over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving capital and ROE
Rising equity and materially higher ROE reflect stronger capital cushions and profitable deployment of capital. A conservatively levered balance sheet with improving returns supports capacity to absorb losses, fund organic loan growth, and pursue acquisitions over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$635.81M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)86.80K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.6
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth12.81%
EPS Growth35.69%
CountryUS
Employees376
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.58
Shares Outstanding16,592,072
10 Day Avg. Volume82,853
30 Day Avg. Volume86,800
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)1.43
P/FCF Ratio10.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.96
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside6.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)3.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)$253.71M
Third Coast Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Third Coast Bank, SSB that provides various commercial banking solutions to small and medium-sized businesses, and professionals. The company's deposit products include checking, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Third Coast Bancshares primarily makes money through traditional banking income streams. The largest component is typically net interest income: the bank earns interest and fees on loans (such as commercial and industrial loans, commercial real es...
Third Coast Bancshares Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid strategic and operational progress driven by the Keystone acquisition — substantial balance sheet expansion, robust loan pipelines, EPS and tangible book value supported when excluding one-time merger costs, and active product/team investments to drive future growth. Near-term headwinds include merger-related nonrecurring expenses, temporary margin compression (partly from an interest reversal), a single large CRE nonaccrual and phased timing of cost saves. Management characterized these negatives as largely one-time or manageable and expressed confidence in sustained organic growth and integration progress.Positive Updates
Keystone Acquisition Drove Balance Sheet Expansion
Keystone merger materially expanded the franchise: total assets increased 23.2%, loans increased 19.5% and deposits increased 23.5% from year-end. Keystone contributed roughly a 20% lift to loans and deposits and expanded the customer base and geographic footprint in Central Texas.
Negative Updates
Nonrecurring Merger-Related Expenses Increased Operating Costs
The company recorded $3.3 million of Keystone merger-related noninterest expense (primarily $1.6M legal & professional, $1.3M salary & benefits, $0.4M miscellaneous) plus $644,000 of sign-on bonuses for senior hires. These elevated noninterest expenses depressed the quarter's results and are expected to be nonrecurring.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Keystone Acquisition Drove Balance Sheet Expansion
Keystone merger materially expanded the franchise: total assets increased 23.2%, loans increased 19.5% and deposits increased 23.5% from year-end. Keystone contributed roughly a 20% lift to loans and deposits and expanded the customer base and geographic footprint in Central Texas.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance centered on near‑term margin and growth expectations: they see net interest margin around 3.75% in the next quarter, expect quarterly loan growth of $75–$125 million (with April month‑to‑date loans already up >$100 million and quarter-to-date organic loan increases of roughly $45 million excluding Keystone), and believe fee income can exceed $1.0 million per month (management sees quarterly fee income in the ~$4.0–4.5 million range); merger-related cost saves (management forecast roughly $6 million of savings) should begin materializing in 3Q/4Q with data‑processing savings in August and full run‑rate by Jan 1, 2027; they also highlighted that potential securitizations and a higher loan‑to‑deposit ratio should further support NIM. For context they noted balance sheet and performance metrics this quarter of assets +23.2%, loans +19.5%, deposits +23.5% year‑to‑date (Keystone added ~20% to loans/deposits), net interest income $53.6 million (+2.7% q/q), GAAP diluted EPS $0.88, ROAA excluding merger costs ~1.25%, allowance for credit losses $51.5 million (0.98% of gross loans), and tangible book value $31.7 (vs. prior $31.69 guidance).Third Coast Bancshares Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 384.76M | 366.95M | 338.07M | 274.08M | 160.18M | 103.19M |
| Gross Profit | 214.70M | 202.79M | 164.77M | 140.74M | 110.49M | 83.20M |
| EBITDA | 92.07M | 90.04M | 65.97M | 45.56M | 25.72M | 14.21M |
| Net Income | 69.07M | 66.29M | 47.67M | 33.40M | 18.66M | 11.42M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.58B | 5.34B | 4.94B | 4.40B | 3.77B | 2.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 734.70M | 399.38M | 755.54M | 475.01M | 505.93M | 353.30M |
| Total Debt | 157.57M | 136.97M | 132.53M | 141.71M | 129.43M | 1.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.93B | 4.81B | 4.48B | 3.98B | 3.39B | 2.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 650.53M | 531.03M | 460.72M | 411.97M | 381.78M | 299.01M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -14.65M | 48.16M | 33.37M | 35.64M | 9.60M | -1.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.66M | 50.84M | 35.14M | 39.08M | 21.79M | 4.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -544.82M | -610.20M | -520.93M | -529.53M | -1.24B | -500.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 645.10M | 319.39M | 495.15M | 570.29M | 1.22B | 618.94M |
Third Coast Bancshares Technical Analysis
Positive
42.12
Price Trends
38.46
Negative
39.25
Negative
38.96
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.15
Negative
52.47
Neutral
67.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCBX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.56, above the 50-day MA of 38.46, and above the 200-day MA of 38.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TCBX.
Third Coast Bancshares Risk Analysis
Third Coast Bancshares disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Third Coast Bancshares reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
Third Coast Bancshares Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $609.20M | 10.34 | 10.59% | ― | 12.65% | 304.57% | |
76 Outperform | $704.97M | 9.01 | 12.72% | 3.89% | 41.30% | ― | |
75 Outperform | $521.05M | 9.44 | 13.94% | 1.53% | 16.74% | 33.70% | |
72 Outperform | $842.63M | 11.11 | 10.62% | 4.95% | 7.00% | 12.93% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $635.81M | 7.65 | 12.61% | ― | 12.81% | 35.69% | |
61 Neutral | $617.34M | 11.77 | 9.79% | 7.17% | 25.15% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
TCBX
Third Coast Bancshares
38.26
7.60
24.79%
FMNB
Farmers National Banc Oh
14.18
1.57
12.49%
FISI
Financial Institutions
36.23
11.51
46.57%
WASH
Washington Bancorp
32.57
6.92
27.00%
BCAL
California BanCorp
18.98
4.20
28.44%
CBNK
Capital Bancorp
31.92
0.12
0.38%
Third Coast Bancshares Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Third Coast Bancshares Shareholders Approve Updated Incentive Plan
Positive
May 21, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares shareholders approved an amended and restated 2019 Omnibus Incentive Plan that increases the pool of common shares available for equity awards by 375,000 and introduces tighter governance features, including...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Third Coast Bancshares Expands and Extends Key Loan Agreement
Positive
May 1, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. renewed and modified its existing loan agreement with American National Bank Trust, under which it had $54.875 million outstanding and had pledged all of Third Coast Bank’s capital stock as co...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Third Coast Bancshares Reports Q1 2026 Results After Merger
Neutral
Apr 22, 2026
Third Coast Bancshares reported its first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, 2026, highlighting a completed merger with Keystone Bancshares on February 1 that added roughly $1 billion in assets, $812 million in loans and $844.2 million in deposits....
Dividends
Third Coast Bancshares Declares Quarterly Preferred Stock Dividend
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
On March 19, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $16.875 per share on its 6.75% Series A Convertible Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock. The dividend will be paid on April 15, 2026 to share...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.