Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $563.82M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 56.45K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: 9.12%
• EPS Growth: 45.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 376
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.03
• Shares Outstanding: 13,894,078
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 74,232
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 56,451
• PEG Ratio: 0.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.21
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.90
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.64
• 1Y Price Target: $44.50
• Price Target Upside: 7.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.68
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $205.62M

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $46.00 ▲(10.95% Upside)

Third Coast Bancshares is well-positioned with strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives. The earnings call provided a positive outlook, but technical indicators suggest caution due to overbought conditions. Valuation is reasonable, though the lack of dividend yield may deter some investors.

Positive Factors

Strategic Merger

The merger with Keystone Bancshares will significantly enhance Third Coast's market position, increasing its asset base and competitive strength in the Texas Triangle, which is a key growth area.

Asset Growth

Strong asset growth indicates robust business expansion and effective strategic initiatives, positioning the company for sustained future growth and market competitiveness.

Efficiency Improvements

Improved efficiency ratios reflect better operational management and cost control, which enhance profitability and provide a competitive edge in the banking sector.

Negative Factors

Nonperforming Loans

An increase in nonperforming loans can signal potential credit risk issues, which may impact future profitability and require more rigorous risk management strategies.

Loan-to-Deposit Ratio

A high loan-to-deposit ratio can strain liquidity, limiting the bank's ability to fund new loans or meet withdrawal demands, potentially affecting financial stability.

Net Interest Margin Decline

A declining net interest margin may reduce profitability, as it indicates a narrowing gap between interest income and interest expenses, impacting earnings potential.

Third Coast Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Third Coast Bank, SSB that provides various commercial banking solutions to small and medium-sized businesses, and professionals. The company's deposit products include checking, savings, individual retirement, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. It also offers commercial and industrial loans, such as equipment loans, working capital, auto finance, and commercial finance. In addition, the company provides treasury management consumer and commercial online banking services, mobile applications, safe deposit boxes, and wire transfer services, as well as debit cards. It operates through eleven branches in Greater Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Austin-San Antonio; and one branch in Detroit, Texas. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Humble, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Third Coast Bancshares generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and fees associated with various banking services. The company issues loans to both individuals and businesses, which typically carry interest rates that contribute significantly to its overall earnings. Additionally, TCBX earns non-interest income through service fees, transaction fees, and other financial products offered to customers. The bank also engages in mortgage lending, which adds another layer of revenue through origination fees and interest on mortgage loans. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance its market presence and can lead to increased customer acquisition and retention, further contributing to its financial performance.

Third Coast Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Third Coast Bancshares demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth, improving profitability, and stable financial leverage. The income statement highlights efficient operations and cost management, while the balance sheet reflects a solid equity base and prudent leverage. Cash flow is on an upward trajectory, although there is room for improvement in operating cash generation.

Income Statement

Third Coast Bancshares shows strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 1.98% and consistent profitability. The gross profit margin improved to 52.07% in TTM, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin also increased to 16.34%, reflecting solid bottom-line performance. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 20.86% and 23.14% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects robust growth and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is stable with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27 in TTM, indicating prudent leverage. Return on equity improved to 12.05%, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 10.04%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets. While the company maintains a healthy financial position, further improvement in equity ratio could enhance financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend with a 21.78% growth in free cash flow in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.99%, indicating potential room for improvement in cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 96.63%, reflecting efficient cash conversion. Overall, cash flow is improving, but further enhancement in operating cash flow is desirable.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	358.81M	338.07M	274.08M	160.18M	103.19M	83.55M
Gross Profit	191.30M	164.77M	140.74M	110.49M	83.20M	61.64M
EBITDA	89.27M	65.97M	45.56M	25.72M	14.21M	15.69M
Net Income	62.13M	47.67M	33.40M	18.66M	11.42M	12.12M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.06B	4.94B	4.40B	3.77B	2.50B	1.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	493.10M	755.54M	475.01M	505.93M	353.30M	226.99M
Total Debt	18.73M	132.53M	141.71M	129.43M	1.00M	33.88M
Total Liabilities	4.55B	4.48B	3.98B	3.39B	2.20B	1.75B
Stockholders Equity	513.83M	460.72M	411.97M	381.78M	299.01M	121.72M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	39.30M	33.37M	35.64M	9.60M	-1.04M	-5.01M
Operating Cash Flow	41.47M	35.14M	39.08M	21.79M	4.58M	-3.65M
Investing Cash Flow	-564.69M	-520.93M	-529.53M	-1.24B	-500.06M	-500.01M
Financing Cash Flow	375.77M	495.15M	570.29M	1.22B	618.94M	611.16M

Third Coast Bancshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 41.46
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCBX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.93, above the 50-day MA of 38.13, and above the 200-day MA of 35.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.44 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TCBX.

Third Coast Bancshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FMNB	77 Outperform	$544.09M	10.01	12.00%	4.72%	3.93%	17.48%
CBNK	76 Outperform	$489.84M	10.05	14.72%	1.48%	24.90%	28.06%
BCAL	75 Outperform	$629.97M	10.21	11.93%	―	61.29%	―
TCBX	73 Outperform	$563.82M	12.60	12.88%	―	9.12%	45.83%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FISI	61 Neutral	$648.61M	-13.49	-4.98%	3.80%	-28.00%	-174.60%
WASH	57 Neutral	$590.08M	-19.46	-4.73%	7.17%	-27.82%	-159.63%

Third Coast Bancshares Corporate Events

Third Coast Bancshares Declares Quarterly Preferred Stock Dividend

On December 18, 2025, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $17.25 per share on its 6.75% Series A Convertible Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, payable on January 15, 2026 to shareholders of record as of December 31, 2025. The move underscores the company’s continued commitment to returning capital to preferred shareholders and signals confidence in the stability of its capital position and ongoing banking operations in its key Texas markets.

Third Coast Bancshares EVP Announces Retirement

On December 1, 2025, Vicki Alexander, Executive Vice President and Chief Risk and Operations Officer at Third Coast Bank, announced her retirement effective December 31, 2025. In light of her departure, the bank has initiated the search for her successors, while her responsibilities will be temporarily managed by the existing management team. Alexander will receive a severance package, including cash and coverage costs, contingent upon compliance with the Separation Agreement.

Third Coast Bancshares Announces Merger with Keystone

On October 22, 2025, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. announced an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization with Keystone Bancshares, Inc., which involves a series of mergers. Keystone will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Third Coast, and eventually, Keystone Bank will merge into Third Coast Bank. The agreement outlines the conversion of Keystone’s common stock into Third Coast’s stock or cash, with a cap on cash consideration. The merger is subject to customary conditions, including shareholder and regulatory approvals, and involves changes in board composition. Termination rights and a termination fee are included in the agreement, along with voting and support agreements to facilitate the merger process.

Third Coast Bancshares Announces Keystone Merger Agreement

On October 22, 2025, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. and Keystone Bancshares, Inc. announced a definitive merger agreement where Third Coast will acquire Keystone in a transaction valued at approximately $123 million. This merger will result in a combined company with assets exceeding $6 billion and aims to strengthen Third Coast’s position in the Austin market by combining resources and expertise to deliver enhanced banking solutions and foster growth.

Third Coast Bancshares to Transfer Stock Listing to NYSE

On September 22, 2025, Third Coast Bancshares announced its decision to transfer the listing of its common stock from Nasdaq to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NYSE Texas, with trading expected to commence on October 6, 2025. This strategic move aims to enhance shareholder satisfaction, boost market visibility, and align the company with industry-leading peers, while maintaining its strong Texas heritage and commitment to stakeholders.