Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX)
NYSE:TCBX
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Third Coast Bancshares
(NYSE:TCBX)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$46.00
▲(10.60% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/20/26
The score is driven by strong fundamentals (growth, profitability, improving ROE and leverage) and a low P/E valuation, supported by constructive earnings-call guidance despite near-term merger/NIM noise. These positives are tempered by weak technicals, with the stock in a clear downtrend even as it approaches oversold levels.
Positive Factors
Revenue & Profitability Growth
Sustained multi-year revenue expansion and rising net income demonstrate durable demand for lending and fee services. Improved operating and net margins indicate better pricing, cost control and scalability, which support repeatable earnings power and resilience across economic cycles.
Negative Factors
Merger-related Expense Pressure
Incremental, multi-quarter merger and integration costs are structural headwinds to near-term efficiency metrics. Persistent expense load can compress ROE and slow the pace at which merger synergies improve underlying margins, creating execution risk during integration.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & Profitability Growth
Sustained multi-year revenue expansion and rising net income demonstrate durable demand for lending and fee services. Improved operating and net margins indicate better pricing, cost control and scalability, which support repeatable earnings power and resilience across economic cycles.
Read all positive factors
Third Coast Bancshares (TCBX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$679.54M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)73.52K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.9
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth9.12%
EPS Growth45.83%
CountryUS
Employees376
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.02
Shares Outstanding16,485,783
10 Day Avg. Volume73,914
30 Day Avg. Volume73,521
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)1.43
P/FCF Ratio10.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.79
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside8.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)3.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$258.15M
Third Coast Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Third Coast Bank, SSB that provides various commercial banking solutions to small and medium-sized businesses, and professionals. The company's deposit products include checking, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Third Coast Bancshares makes money primarily through its banking subsidiary by generating (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income. Net interest income is earned from the spread between interest income on loans and other interest-earning...
Third Coast Bancshares Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 21, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operating and financial results: record full-year earnings, double-digit loan growth, expanding assets and deposits, improving fee income, lower funding costs, stronger book value and improving credit metrics. Near-term challenges include one-time and merger-related expenses, lumpy fee-driven margin benefits that may not recur, seasonal deposit inflows and modest allowance ratio compression. Management has a clear M&A pipeline (Keystone) and targets disciplined loan growth and efficiency initiatives. Overall, positive momentum and fundamentals outweigh the flagged short-term expenses and variability risks.Positive Updates
Strong Loan Growth
Gross loans increased $230 million (5.5% quarter-over-quarter) to $4.39 billion and rose 10.8% year-over-year, surpassing the targeted run rate of 8%.
Negative Updates
One-Time and Merger-Related Expense Noise
Q4 included $1.5 million of sign-on and severance costs and ~ $1 million in legal/professional merger-related expenses. Management expects roughly $5 million more merger-related expenses over the next couple of quarters, adding near-term expense pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Loan Growth
Gross loans increased $230 million (5.5% quarter-over-quarter) to $4.39 billion and rose 10.8% year-over-year, surpassing the targeted run rate of 8%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 guidance highlights targeted loan growth of $75–$100 million per quarter (roughly an 8% annualized rate), a continued disciplined underwriting posture and expectation to maintain a ~95% loan‑to‑deposit ratio; they see core NIM settling around ~3.90% (Q4 reported 4.10%), cost of funds at 3.33% in Q4 (improved 23 bps Q/Q and 50 bps Y/Y), a noninterest‑income run rate near $4.0 million per quarter, and operating earnings in the roughly $107 million range while controlling expense growth to about 5–7% (noting ~$1.0 million of Q4 merger legal costs and roughly $5 million more merger‑related expenses expected over the next few quarters); they expect another securitization in 2026 to manage concentrations, anticipate the Keystone merger to close by end of Q1 to form a combined ~$6 billion, 22‑location franchise, plan to drive efficiencies via a renewed 1% initiative, and will maintain strong credit metrics (allowance ~1.0% of loans; net charge‑offs 8 bps for the year).Third Coast Bancshares Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
83
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 366.95M | 338.07M | 274.08M | 160.18M | 103.19M |
| Gross Profit | 202.79M | 164.77M | 140.74M | 110.49M | 83.20M |
| EBITDA | 90.04M | 65.97M | 45.56M | 25.72M | 14.21M |
| Net Income | 66.29M | 47.67M | 33.40M | 18.66M | 11.42M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.34B | 4.94B | 4.40B | 3.77B | 2.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 558.39M | 755.54M | 475.01M | 505.93M | 353.30M |
| Total Debt | 136.97M | 132.53M | 141.71M | 129.43M | 1.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.81B | 4.48B | 3.98B | 3.39B | 2.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 531.03M | 460.72M | 411.97M | 381.78M | 299.01M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 48.16M | 33.37M | 35.64M | 9.60M | -1.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 50.84M | 35.14M | 39.08M | 21.79M | 4.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -610.20M | -520.93M | -529.53M | -1.24B | -500.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 319.39M | 495.15M | 570.29M | 1.22B | 618.94M |
Third Coast Bancshares Technical Analysis
Positive
41.59
Price Trends
39.84
Positive
39.34
Positive
38.55
Positive
Market Momentum
0.52
Negative
69.77
Neutral
97.27
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCBX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.44, above the 50-day MA of 39.84, and above the 200-day MA of 38.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.52 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TCBX.
Third Coast Bancshares Risk Analysis
Third Coast Bancshares disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Third Coast Bancshares reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Third Coast Bancshares Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $679.54M | 7.91 | 13.12% | ― | 9.12% | 45.83% | |
70 Outperform | $679.73M | 8.80 | 9.83% | 7.17% | -27.82% | -159.63% | |
70 Outperform | $516.80M | 8.13 | 14.79% | 1.53% | 24.90% | 28.06% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $823.99M | 9.18 | 12.01% | 4.95% | 3.93% | 17.48% | |
66 Neutral | $668.54M | 8.37 | -4.98% | 3.89% | -28.00% | -174.60% | |
62 Neutral | $594.17M | 9.70 | 11.36% | ― | 61.29% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
TCBX
Third Coast Bancshares
41.59
13.55
48.32%
FMNB
Farmers National Banc Oh
13.89
2.49
21.79%
FISI
Financial Institutions
33.85
12.90
61.61%
WASH
Washington Bancorp
35.74
11.05
44.75%
BCAL
California BanCorp
18.36
6.23
51.41%
CBNK
Capital Bancorp
31.66
5.56
21.31%
Third Coast Bancshares Corporate Events
Dividends
Third Coast Bancshares Declares Quarterly Preferred Stock Dividend
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
On March 19, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $16.875 per share on its 6.75% Series A Convertible Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock. The dividend will be paid on April 15, 2026 to share...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Third Coast Bancshares Completes Keystone Merger, Expands Texas Footprint
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
On February 1, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. completed its previously announced merger with Keystone Bancshares, Inc., folding Keystone and its subsidiary Keystone Bank into Third Coast’s corporate and bank structure in a multi-step tra...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Third Coast Shareholders Approve Keystone Bancshares Merger Plan
Positive
Jan 23, 2026
On January 23, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. held a special meeting of shareholders to vote on proposals related to its previously announced Agreement and Plan of Reorganization, dated October 22, 2025, under which Arch Merger Sub, Inc. will ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Third Coast Bancshares Reports Record 2025 Earnings Growth
Positive
Jan 21, 2026
On January 21, 2026, Third Coast Bancshares reported strong results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighted by record annual net income of $66.3 million and record diluted earnings per share of $3.79, up sharply f...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal ProceedingsM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Third Coast Bancshares addresses merger disclosure challenges
Positive
Jan 16, 2026
On October 22, 2025, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. agreed to a reorganization with Keystone Bancshares, Inc., and, following the effectiveness of its Form S-4 on December 19, 2025, it scheduled special shareholder meetings for January 23 and Januar...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.