Southern California Bancorp (BCAL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $597.65M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 154.65K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 61.29%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 290
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 32,322,650
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 121,382
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 154,649
• PEG Ratio: -0.87
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.17
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.33
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $21.00 ▲(6.17% Upside)

The score is primarily driven by strong underlying financial performance (high margins and low leverage) and supportive corporate actions (first dividend, buybacks and balance-sheet improvements). These positives are partially offset by weaker near-term technical signals (below short-term moving averages and slightly negative MACD) and a small recent decline in free cash flow growth, while the low P/E adds a favorable valuation tilt.

Positive Factors

High Profitability Margins

Sustained high net and EBIT margins indicate durable operational efficiency and pricing power across lending and fee businesses. This strong profitability underpins internal capital generation, funds reinvestment, and shareholder distributions, improving resilience through economic cycles.

Prudent Balance Sheet

Very low leverage provides long-term financial flexibility to support loan growth, absorb credit shocks, and pursue strategic initiatives. Combined with a healthy ROE, the capital structure supports sustainable lending expansion without overreliance on expensive external funding.

Capital Returns and Deleveraging Actions

Launching a dividend, executing buybacks and retiring high-cost subordinated notes reflect disciplined capital allocation and excess capital availability. These structural moves reduce funding costs, enhance shareholder returns, and signal management confidence in recurring cash generation.

Negative Factors

Declining Free Cash Flow Growth

A negative trend in free cash flow growth, even if modest, can constrain long-term reinvestment, debt repayment capacity, and dividend sustainability. Persistent FCF declines would reduce strategic optionality and increase sensitivity to higher funding costs or credit losses.

Gross Margin Deterioration

Erosion of gross margin could signal rising funding costs, competitive pressure on loan spreads, or higher cost of funds. If this structural trend continues it will compress operating leverage and net income, challenging margin-driven capital generation and long-term ROE maintenance.

CEO Transition and Role Consolidation

A leadership change with the chairman assuming CEO duties concentrates executive power and creates execution and governance risk. Even with advisory support and continuity messaging, long-term strategy execution and stakeholder confidence can be tested during multi-quarter transition periods.

Southern California Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Southern California Bancorp operates as the holding company for Bank of Southern California, N.A. that provides various financial products to individuals, professionals, and small-to medium-sized businesses. The company offers checking, personal and business savings, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. It also provides home equity lines of credit, business loans and lines of credit, commercial real estate and construction loans, small business administration loans, letters of credit, and personal and business credit cards. In addition, the company provides cash vault, sweep accounts, and remote deposit capture services; online and mobile banking services; courier service; lockbox services; and merchant services. It operates branches in San Diego, Orange, Ventura, Los Angeles, and Riverside counties, as well as the Inland Empire. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Southern California Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans, fees from various banking services, and investment income. Key revenue streams include interest earned on commercial and residential loans, which represent a significant portion of their earnings. Additionally, BCAL earns fee income from transaction services, account maintenance, and advisory services. The bank may also engage in investment activities, providing another avenue for revenue generation. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance customer access and engagement, contributing to the bank's overall financial performance.

Southern California Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Southern California Bancorp demonstrates solid financial health with strong revenue growth and profitability improvements. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, and cash flows are strong, supporting future growth and operational resilience. Continued focus on operational efficiency could further enhance profitability.

Income Statement

Southern California Bancorp shows strong revenue growth with a 12.12% increase in TTM, supported by a healthy gross profit margin of 66.71%. The net profit margin improved to 13.20%, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins, while positive, suggest room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13, reflecting prudent financial management. Return on equity is moderate at 5.99%, suggesting potential for higher profitability. The equity ratio indicates a strong capital base, enhancing financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is robust, with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 27.17% in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.73 indicates strong cash generation relative to earnings, supporting liquidity and operational flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	241.45M	184.58M	126.90M	98.02M	71.56M	54.20M
Gross Profit	188.08M	106.07M	96.60M	86.27M	67.00M	43.78M
EBITDA	94.69M	11.90M	38.77M	23.98M	15.91M	8.22M
Net Income	63.41M	5.43M	25.91M	16.11M	10.71M	4.72M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.10B	4.03B	2.36B	2.28B	2.27B	1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	95.05M	202.47M	163.04M	172.88M	78.00M	36.65M
Total Debt	52.60M	88.03M	114.98M	78.83M	29.41M	39.66M
Total Liabilities	3.54B	3.52B	2.07B	2.02B	2.02B	1.41B
Stockholders Equity	564.72M	511.84M	288.15M	260.36M	246.53M	168.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	59.62M	49.74M	32.80M	12.27M	17.90M	10.59M
Operating Cash Flow	60.01M	50.29M	33.10M	13.35M	19.65M	12.36M
Investing Cash Flow	207.47M	524.65M	-78.93M	-512.70M	8.52M	-301.69M
Financing Cash Flow	-322.69M	-273.58M	45.86M	6.10M	301.01M	449.30M

Southern California Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.78
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BCAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.80, above the 50-day MA of 18.99, and above the 200-day MA of 16.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BCAL.

Southern California Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SHBI	78 Outperform	$604.02M	10.60	10.25%	2.66%	6.01%	38.05%
BCAL	74 Outperform	$597.65M	9.54	11.93%	―	61.29%	―
FMNB	70 Outperform	$502.29M	9.24	12.00%	4.95%	3.93%	17.48%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FISI	61 Neutral	$635.12M	-13.32	-4.98%	3.89%	-28.00%	-174.60%
WASH	57 Neutral	$572.76M	-19.05	-4.73%	7.17%	-27.82%	-159.63%

Southern California Bancorp Corporate Events

Southern California Bancorp Names David Rainer Chief Executive

California BanCorp announced that Chief Executive Officer and director Steven E. Shelton retired from the company and its wholly owned subsidiary, California Bank of Commerce, effective December 31, 2025, after playing a key role in building the bank’s statewide relationship-banking franchise and helping drive the success of its 2024 merger. Under a transition and separation agreement, Shelton will serve as a strategic transition partner and advisor through December 31, 2026, receiving a defined monthly salary, a lump-sum separation payment, COBRA severance benefits, potential 2025 bonus, accelerated vesting of outstanding equity awards and full vesting plus additional benefits under his supplemental executive retirement plan, with the company emphasizing that his retirement did not stem from any disagreement over operations or policies. The Board appointed Chairman David I. Rainer as Chief Executive Officer of both the holding company and the bank effective January 1, 2026, with no change to his compensation, consolidating leadership roles but signaling continuity in governance and strategy, as the bank seeks to build on recent profitability and expand its position as a premier commercial banking franchise for small and mid-sized businesses in California.

The most recent analyst rating on (BCAL) stock is a Buy with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern California Bancorp stock, see the BCAL Stock Forecast page.

Southern California Bancorp Announces First Cash Dividend

On December 4, 2025, the Board of Directors of California BanCorp announced the approval of the company’s first quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share on its common stock. This dividend is scheduled to be paid on January 15, 2026, to shareholders who are recorded as of December 24, 2025, marking a significant milestone in the company’s financial strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (BCAL) stock is a Buy with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern California Bancorp stock, see the BCAL Stock Forecast page.

Southern California Bancorp Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

California BanCorp reported a net income of $15.7 million for the third quarter of 2025, marking an increase from the previous quarter’s $14.1 million and a significant turnaround from a net loss of $16.5 million in the same quarter of 2024. The company highlighted strong deposit growth and loan originations, alongside a decrease in non-performing assets, reflecting progress in derisking its balance sheet. The firm also executed a share repurchase program and paid off high-cost subordinated notes, demonstrating a focus on enhancing shareholder value. Despite economic uncertainties, the company remains optimistic about its future, backed by a solid capital position and a strategy to expand its commercial banking franchise across California.

The most recent analyst rating on (BCAL) stock is a Buy with a $18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern California Bancorp stock, see the BCAL Stock Forecast page.