California BanCorp (BCAL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $614.45M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 154.65K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: 61.29%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 290
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.50
• Shares Outstanding: 32,322,650
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 121,382
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 154,649
• PEG Ratio: -0.87
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.17
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.64
• 1Y Price Target: $21.00
• Price Target Upside: 6.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $20.50 ▲(3.64% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability and low leverage) and supportive, positive corporate updates (improving results, dividends/buybacks). These are partially offset by weaker near-term technical signals (below key short-term moving averages and negative MACD), while the low P/E provides an added valuation cushion.

Positive Factors

High Profitability Margins

Sustained high net and EBIT margins indicate efficient core banking operations and disciplined expense control. Durable margin levels provide internal capital to fund loan growth, absorb credit volatility, and support dividends/buybacks, strengthening franchise resilience over months.

Conservative Balance Sheet and Capital

Very low leverage and regulatory capital above well-capitalized thresholds give the bank long-term financial flexibility. This supports organic loan growth, opportunistic M&A, and shareholder returns while buffering credit stress and preserving access to funding over the medium term.

Successful Integration, Derisking, and Franchise Expansion

A transformational merger and deliberate derisking improved asset quality and expanded market footprint. Combined with capital actions (dividend, repurchases) and adding seasoned bankers, this strengthens a relationship-based commercial franchise positioned to capture consolidation-driven opportunities.

Negative Factors

Net Interest Margin Compression

Quarterly declines in NIM and loan yields, if persistent, can structurally reduce net interest income for a regional lender. With lending a primary revenue source, sustained spread compression would pressure earnings power and constrain the bank's ability to fund dividends or reinvest without raising margins or cutting costs.

Slight Decline in Free Cash Flow Growth

Negative TTM free cash flow growth suggests cash conversion has weakened despite operating cash strength. Over months this can limit reinvestment in loan growth, slow balance-sheet normalization, or force reliance on external funding for capital returns, reducing financial flexibility.

Incremental Debt Increase to Monitor

Although leverage remains low, the noted uptick in debt over time could signal creeping reliance on borrowings. If continued, higher debt could raise funding costs, compress excess capital buffers, and reduce capacity for opportunistic investments or further shareholder returns in stressed conditions.

California BanCorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Southern California Bancorp operates as the holding company for Bank of Southern California, N.A. that provides various financial products to individuals, professionals, and small-to medium-sized businesses. The company offers checking, personal and business savings, and money market accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. It also provides home equity lines of credit, business loans and lines of credit, commercial real estate and construction loans, small business administration loans, letters of credit, and personal and business credit cards. In addition, the company provides cash vault, sweep accounts, and remote deposit capture services; online and mobile banking services; courier service; lockbox services; and merchant services. It operates branches in San Diego, Orange, Ventura, Los Angeles, and Riverside counties, as well as the Inland Empire. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Southern California Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans, fees from various banking services, and investment income. Key revenue streams include interest earned on commercial and residential loans, which represent a significant portion of their earnings. Additionally, BCAL earns fee income from transaction services, account maintenance, and advisory services. The bank may also engage in investment activities, providing another avenue for revenue generation. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance customer access and engagement, contributing to the bank's overall financial performance.

California BanCorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are solid: strong profitability (TTM net margin 26.55%, EBIT margin 37.20%) and a conservative balance sheet (debt-to-equity 0.09, ROE 11.77%). The main offset is weaker cash-flow trend (TTM free cash flow growth -3.63%), which slightly tempers the otherwise strong profile.

Income Statement

Southern California Bancorp has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 1.92%. The company maintains robust profitability with a net profit margin of 26.55% and an EBIT margin of 37.20% in the TTM period. These figures indicate effective cost management and operational efficiency. However, the gross profit margin has slightly decreased compared to previous years, which could be a point of concern if the trend continues.

Balance Sheet

The company exhibits a strong balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09, indicating prudent financial leverage. The return on equity is healthy at 11.77%, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at a solid level, showcasing financial stability. However, the slight increase in debt over the years warrants monitoring to ensure it does not impact financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a slight decline in free cash flow growth at -3.63% in the TTM period, which could impact future investments or debt servicing. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.23, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, suggesting efficient conversion of earnings into cash. Continued focus on cash flow management is advisable.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	241.45M	184.58M	126.90M	98.02M	71.56M	54.20M
Gross Profit	188.08M	106.07M	96.60M	86.27M	67.00M	43.78M
EBITDA	94.69M	11.90M	38.77M	23.98M	15.91M	8.22M
Net Income	63.41M	5.43M	25.91M	16.11M	10.71M	4.72M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.10B	4.03B	2.36B	2.28B	2.27B	1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	95.05M	202.47M	163.04M	172.88M	78.00M	36.65M
Total Debt	52.60M	88.03M	114.98M	78.83M	29.41M	39.66M
Total Liabilities	3.54B	3.52B	2.07B	2.02B	2.02B	1.41B
Stockholders Equity	564.72M	511.84M	288.15M	260.36M	246.53M	168.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	59.62M	49.74M	32.80M	12.27M	17.90M	10.59M
Operating Cash Flow	60.01M	50.29M	33.10M	13.35M	19.65M	12.36M
Investing Cash Flow	207.47M	524.65M	-78.93M	-512.70M	8.52M	-301.69M
Financing Cash Flow	-322.69M	-273.58M	45.86M	6.10M	301.01M	449.30M

California BanCorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.78
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BCAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.50, above the 50-day MA of 18.96, and above the 200-day MA of 16.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BCAL.

California BanCorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SHBI	76 Outperform	$669.20M	11.25	10.25%	2.66%	6.01%	38.05%
BCAL	72 Outperform	$614.45M	9.85	11.93%	―	61.29%	―
FMNB	72 Outperform	$498.53M	9.13	12.00%	4.95%	3.93%	17.48%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
WASH	61 Neutral	$696.11M	13.49	10.02%	7.17%	-27.82%	-159.63%
FISI	59 Neutral	$700.14M	9.63	-4.98%	3.89%	-28.00%	-174.60%

California BanCorp Corporate Events

Southern California Bancorp Posts Strong Transformational 2025 Results

On January 28, 2026, California BanCorp reported net income of $16.4 million, or $0.50 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2025, and $63.1 million, or $1.93 per diluted share, for the full year, a sharp increase from $5.4 million in 2024, driven by stronger net interest income, an $8.8 million reversal of credit loss provisions for the year, and improved efficiency. The company highlighted 2025 as a transformational year marked by the successful integration of its 2024 merger, balance-sheet derisking through reductions in higher-risk loans and brokered deposits, maintenance of strong asset quality with nonperforming assets at 0.40% of total assets, lower funding costs, and capital actions including stock repurchases, a quarterly dividend, and growth in tangible book value per share to $13.79, while adding seasoned bankers in Northern California to capitalize on consolidation-driven disruption in the commercial banking market and reinforcing its position as a well-capitalized, relationship-based franchise.

The most recent analyst rating on (BCAL) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern California Bancorp stock, see the BCAL Stock Forecast page.

Southern California Bancorp Names David Rainer Chief Executive

California BanCorp announced that Chief Executive Officer and director Steven E. Shelton retired from the company and its wholly owned subsidiary, California Bank of Commerce, effective December 31, 2025, after playing a key role in building the bank’s statewide relationship-banking franchise and helping drive the success of its 2024 merger. Under a transition and separation agreement, Shelton will serve as a strategic transition partner and advisor through December 31, 2026, receiving a defined monthly salary, a lump-sum separation payment, COBRA severance benefits, potential 2025 bonus, accelerated vesting of outstanding equity awards and full vesting plus additional benefits under his supplemental executive retirement plan, with the company emphasizing that his retirement did not stem from any disagreement over operations or policies. The Board appointed Chairman David I. Rainer as Chief Executive Officer of both the holding company and the bank effective January 1, 2026, with no change to his compensation, consolidating leadership roles but signaling continuity in governance and strategy, as the bank seeks to build on recent profitability and expand its position as a premier commercial banking franchise for small and mid-sized businesses in California.

The most recent analyst rating on (BCAL) stock is a Buy with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern California Bancorp stock, see the BCAL Stock Forecast page.

Southern California Bancorp Announces First Cash Dividend

On December 4, 2025, the Board of Directors of California BanCorp announced the approval of the company’s first quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share on its common stock. This dividend is scheduled to be paid on January 15, 2026, to shareholders who are recorded as of December 24, 2025, marking a significant milestone in the company’s financial strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (BCAL) stock is a Buy with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern California Bancorp stock, see the BCAL Stock Forecast page.

Southern California Bancorp Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

California BanCorp reported a net income of $15.7 million for the third quarter of 2025, marking an increase from the previous quarter’s $14.1 million and a significant turnaround from a net loss of $16.5 million in the same quarter of 2024. The company highlighted strong deposit growth and loan originations, alongside a decrease in non-performing assets, reflecting progress in derisking its balance sheet. The firm also executed a share repurchase program and paid off high-cost subordinated notes, demonstrating a focus on enhancing shareholder value. Despite economic uncertainties, the company remains optimistic about its future, backed by a solid capital position and a strategy to expand its commercial banking franchise across California.

The most recent analyst rating on (BCAL) stock is a Buy with a $18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern California Bancorp stock, see the BCAL Stock Forecast page.