Farmers National Banc Oh (FMNB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $746.87M
• Dividend Yield: 4.95%
• Average Volume (3M): 510.64K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.74
• Revenue Growth: 3.93%
• EPS Growth: 17.48%
• Country: US
• Employees: 682
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 59,322,773
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 490,593
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 510,640
• PEG Ratio: 0.49
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.84
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.57
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.72
• 1Y Price Target: $14.50
• Price Target Upside: 15.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.39
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $273.10M

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.50 ▲(7.23% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/18/26

FMNB’s score is driven by sound fundamentals (improving margins, healthier leverage trend, and strong 2025 free cash flow) and supportive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and some execution/dilution risk tied to the pending merger and share authorization.

Positive Factors

Improving Profitability

Margin improvement to ~20.1% in 2025 reflects stronger core banking profitability and operating leverage. Sustained higher margins increase resilience to credit volatility and funding cost swings, supporting internal capital generation and steady returns over the medium term.

Strong Cash Generation

Free cash flow equaling net income in 2025 indicates the bank converts earnings into actual cash effectively, enabling dividends, organic investments, and funding for growth or M&A without heavy external financing. This improves financial flexibility over coming quarters.

Strategic Merger Expands Franchise

Regulatory and shareholder approvals for the Middlefield merger materially enlarge the regional footprint across Ohio and Pennsylvania, adding deposits and lending scale. The consolidation supports diversification of revenue streams and potential cost synergies that can strengthen long-term competitiveness.

Negative Factors

Meaningful Leverage

Although leverage has improved from prior years, the remaining meaningful debt load constrains capital flexibility and heightens sensitivity to earnings shocks. In a downturn or if credit costs rise, servicing and reducing leverage could pressure capital returns and limit strategic options.

Near-term Revenue Pressure

A modest revenue decline in 2025 signals potential headwinds in loan growth or fee generation, which may reflect competitive pressure or cyclical effects. If revenue growth fails to reaccelerate, sustaining margin expansion and funding dividend or investment plans becomes more challenging over several quarters.

Merger Dilution & Integration Risk

Authorization to increase shares creates a credible path for equity issuance tied to the Middlefield deal and future needs, posing dilution risk to existing holders. Coupled with typical integration execution risk, the transaction could weigh on near-term earnings per share and operational metrics during consolidation.

Farmers National Banc Oh Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Farmers National Banc Corp., a financial holding company, operates in the banking, trust, retirement consulting, insurance, and financial management industries. It offers commercial and retail banking services, including checking, savings, and time deposit accounts; commercial, mortgage and installment, and home equity loans; home equity lines of credit, night depository, safe deposit box, money order, bank check, automated teller machine, Internet banking, travel card, E bond transaction, MasterCard and Visa credit cards, brokerage, and other services. The company also provides personal and corporate trust services in the areas of estate settlement, trust administration, and employee benefit plans; retirement services; property and casualty insurance products and services; and various insurance products through licensed representatives, as well as invests in municipal securities. It operates through 47 locations in northeastern region of Ohio and one location in southwestern Pennsylvania. The company was founded in 1887 and is based in Canfield, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

FMNB primarily makes money through (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income. Net interest income is generated by earning interest on loans and other interest-earning assets (such as investment securities) and paying interest on funding sources (primarily customer deposits and, when used, borrowings). The spread between the yield on loans/securities and the cost of deposits/borrowings is a core driver of earnings; loan growth, the mix of loans (commercial, consumer, real estate), asset yields, funding costs, and interest-rate conditions materially affect this stream. Noninterest income is earned from fees and service charges associated with banking products and services, such as deposit account service charges and other customer-related banking fees, and from wealth management activities, including trust, investment management, and related advisory/administrative fees. Like most banks, profitability is also influenced by credit performance (loan losses and provisioning), operating efficiency, and the size and composition of the deposit base, which impacts funding costs. Specific material partnerships contributing to earnings: null.

Farmers National Banc Oh Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid overall financial profile: 2025 profitability improved (net margin ~20.1% vs ~17.1% in 2024) and free cash flow was strong (FCF-to-net income ~1.0). Offsetting this are a modest 2025 revenue decline vs 2024, normalized margins versus 2021–2022, and less consistent cash-flow coverage history. Balance sheet leverage is improving (debt-to-equity ~0.76 vs ~0.96), but debt remains meaningful.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown meaningfully since 2020, but the latest year (2025) shows a modest decline versus 2024, signaling some near-term growth pressure. Profitability remains solid: net profit margin improved to ~20.1% in 2025 from ~17.1% in 2024, and operating profitability also strengthened year over year. That said, margins are well below the unusually strong 2021–2022 levels, suggesting profitability has normalized and could be more sensitive to the operating environment going forward.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks reasonably stable with equity building and leverage improving: debt-to-equity declined to ~0.76 in 2025 from ~0.96 in 2024 (and ~1.10 in 2023). Return on equity is steady around ~11% in 2024–2025 (below the 2022 peak), indicating consistent but not exceptional value generation. Overall assets have increased over time, but the company still carries a meaningful debt load, which can limit flexibility if profitability weakens.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is healthy: free cash flow in 2025 was strong and matched net income (free cash flow to net income of 1.0), and free cash flow growth rebounded sharply in 2025 after being soft in 2023–2024. Operating cash flow is positive and sizable across the period, though it declined in 2025 versus 2024. A key watch item is that the provided cash-flow coverage figure is inconsistent year to year (very low in 2021–2024, then much higher in 2025), suggesting volatility in cash conversion or potential metric noise—either way, it reduces confidence in consistency.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	271.83M	269.45M	255.20M	177.91M	154.65M
Gross Profit	173.41M	162.12M	170.49M	158.87M	141.29M
EBITDA	65.05M	61.83M	66.03M	77.73M	65.65M
Net Income	54.59M	45.95M	49.93M	60.60M	51.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.25B	5.12B	5.08B	4.08B	4.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.36B	651.92M	1.33B	1.29B	1.46B
Total Debt	367.73M	391.15M	443.66M	183.21M	87.76M
Total Liabilities	4.76B	4.71B	4.67B	3.79B	3.67B
Stockholders Equity	485.73M	406.03M	404.42M	292.30M	472.43M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	52.18M	54.92M	59.05M	78.94M	53.56M
Operating Cash Flow	60.04M	66.61M	62.93M	81.50M	54.93M
Investing Cash Flow	-78.85M	-95.13M	77.94M	-205.51M	-423.61M
Financing Cash Flow	25.43M	10.59M	-112.76M	86.77M	226.85M

Farmers National Banc Oh Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.59
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FMNB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.77, below the 50-day MA of 13.05, and below the 200-day MA of 13.39, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FMNB.

Farmers National Banc Oh Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TCBX	71 Outperform	$610.96M	7.91	13.12%	―	9.12%	45.83%
CBNK	70 Outperform	$470.14M	8.13	14.72%	1.53%	24.90%	28.06%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FMNB	67 Neutral	$746.87M	9.18	12.01%	4.95%	3.93%	17.48%
FISI	66 Neutral	$600.61M	8.37	-4.98%	3.89%	-28.00%	-174.60%
BCAL	62 Neutral	$559.90M	9.70	11.36%	―	61.29%	―

Farmers National Banc Oh Corporate Events

Farmers National Banc Hires New Chief Banking Officer

On March 17, 2026, Farmers National Banc Corp. announced that it had hired Todd J. Simko as Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer, effective March 16, 2026, bringing more than 25 years of banking leadership experience from roles at the FHLB in Pittsburgh, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, and Main Street Bank. At Main Street Bank, Simko previously served as Chief Banking Officer, Chief Risk Officer, and Chief Operations Officer, where he led key business lines and contributed to earnings and growth.

In his new role at Farmers, Simko will oversee strategy and execution in commercial lending, loan operations, treasury management, and other banking areas, aligning with the company’s relationship-based community banking model. Management highlighted that his appointment comes at a pivotal time following Farmers’ recent merger with Middlefield Bank, which deepened its presence in Northeast Ohio and Western Pennsylvania and expanded its footprint into Central and Western Ohio, and Simko is expected to play an integral role in integrating these new markets and supporting the company’s growth trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (FMNB) stock is a Hold with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Farmers National Banc Oh stock, see the FMNB Stock Forecast page.

Farmers National Banc Shareholders Approve Share Increase, Merger

On February 10, 2026, Farmers National Banc Corp. shareholders approved an amendment to increase the company’s authorized common shares from 50 million to 75 million, clearing the way for additional equity issuance. At the same special meeting, investors also backed related proposals including the authorization to issue new shares, and an adjournment measure that ultimately was not needed.

On the same date, shareholders of both Farmers and Middlefield Banc Corp. approved the planned merger of Middlefield into Farmers, with Farmers as the surviving entity. The transaction, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, is set to expand Farmers’ regional banking footprint and reinforce its competitive position in the Ohio and Pennsylvania financial services markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (FMNB) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Farmers National Banc Oh stock, see the FMNB Stock Forecast page.

Farmers National Banc gains approvals for Middlefield merger

On February 5, 2026, Farmers National Banc Corp. and Middlefield Banc Corp. announced they had secured all necessary regulatory approvals to complete the planned merger of Middlefield into Farmers, along with the consolidation of Middlefield Banking Company into The Farmers National Bank of Canfield, under an agreement originally signed on October 22, 2025. The transaction, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, marks a significant step toward combining the two Ohio-based bank holding companies’ operations, positioning Farmers to expand its regional footprint and service offerings while setting the stage for operational integration that will affect customers, employees, and shareholders of both institutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (FMNB) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Farmers National Banc Oh stock, see the FMNB Stock Forecast page.

Farmers National Banc posts solid Q4 results, eyes merger

On January 28, 2026, Farmers National Banc Corp. reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $14.6 million, or $0.39 per diluted share, up slightly from a year earlier, with adjusted earnings of $15.1 million, or $0.40 per share, after excluding merger and securities-related costs. The bank extended its record to 172 consecutive profitable quarters, improved its net interest margin to 3.05% amid Fed rate cuts, and posted a full-year 3.6% increase in core customer deposits and stronger noninterest income across trust, insurance and retirement services. While loans contracted quarter over quarter due to higher commercial payoffs and credit costs rose on two sizeable charge-offs, nonperforming loans fell sharply from the prior quarter and capital strengthened, as total assets reached $5.25 billion and stockholders’ equity climbed to $485.7 million. Management highlighted the announced merger with Middlefield Banc Corp., expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, positioning Farmers to expand its community banking platform and potentially enhance long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (FMNB) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Farmers National Banc Oh stock, see the FMNB Stock Forecast page.

Farmers National Banc Urges Shareholder Support for Merger

On January 13, 2026, Farmers National Banc Corp. urged its shareholders to vote in favor of its previously announced merger with Middlefield Banc Corp. ahead of a virtual special meeting set for February 10, 2026. The company’s board reiterated that the deal, first disclosed on October 22, 2025, is intended to strengthen Farmers’ market position, expand its geographic footprint and support future growth, with a subsequent merger of Middlefield’s banking subsidiary into The Farmers National Bank of Canfield expected after closing. Management framed the transaction as a key step in enhancing long-term shareholder value and directed investors to proxy materials and related disclosures filed with the SEC, underscoring that shareholder approval remains a critical condition for the combination to proceed.

The most recent analyst rating on (FMNB) stock is a Buy with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Farmers National Banc Oh stock, see the FMNB Stock Forecast page.