Molson Coors (TAP)
NYSE:TAP
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Molson Coors
(NYSE:TAP)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$46.00
▲(3.16% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/13/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile financial performance (including a very large 2025 loss) and only modest technical strength (negative MACD and price below longer-term averages). Offsetting factors include consistently positive free cash flow, shareholder-return commitments highlighted on the earnings call (buybacks/dividend), and a relatively high dividend yield, though the negative P/E limits valuation support.
Positive Factors
Consistent Free Cash Flow
Consistent free cash flow (≈$1.1B) provides durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks, deleveraging and targeted M&A. This persistent cash generation cushions earnings volatility, funds the $450M cost program and rebased CapEx, and preserves strategic flexibility.
Negative Factors
Volatile Profitability & Large 2025 Loss
The very large 2025 GAAP loss from impairments highlights earnings volatility and weakens equity, complicating long-term return metrics. Recurring swings reduce predictability for cash conversion and raise the risk that episodic write-downs could offset operational improvements and capital-return plans.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent Free Cash Flow
Consistent free cash flow (≈$1.1B) provides durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks, deleveraging and targeted M&A. This persistent cash generation cushions earnings volatility, funds the $450M cost program and rebased CapEx, and preserves strategic flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Molson Coors (TAP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.42B
Dividend Yield4.08%
Average Volume (3M)2.78M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.18
Revenue Growth-4.18%
EPS Growth-301.58%
CountryUS
Employees16,800
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding175,639,340
10 Day Avg. Volume2,836,763
30 Day Avg. Volume2,784,836
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)0.82
P/FCF Ratio8.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.59
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.20
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-8.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$47.50Price Target Upside6.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)4.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.13B
Molson Coors Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Molson Coors Beverage Company manufactures, markets, and sells beer and other malt beverage products under various brands in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. It offers flavored malt beverages, craft, and ready to drink ...
How the Company Makes Money
Molson Coors makes money primarily by selling branded beverages—mainly beer—into various channels and geographies. Revenue is generated when the company sells finished products (kegs, bottles, cans, and other packaged formats) to customers such as...
Molson Coors Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Geography
Breaks down revenue by region, showing where Molson Coors is achieving the most sales and highlighting opportunities or risks based on regional market dynamics.
Breaks down revenue by region, showing where Molson Coors is achieving the most sales and highlighting opportunities or risks based on regional market dynamics.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMolson Coors Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear near-term headwinds (notably a ~$125M COGS hit from Midwest premium/aluminum, industry volume declines and lapping of a one-time incentive) with multiple material strengths: strong and consistent free cash flow (~$1.1B), a much-improved balance sheet (net debt $5.4B; leverage ~2.3x), an expanded $4B buyback authorization, a targeted $450M cost-savings program, progress in Beyond Beer (~10% of revenue) and notable brand growth (Blue Moon non-alc +25%, retained ~70% of 2023 share gains). Management outlined disciplined capital allocation (CapEx rebased to ~$650M/yr) and an operating rewire to drive faster, localized decisions. Overall, the positives around cash generation, deleveraging, shareholder returns and a clear transformation plan are substantial and viewed as outweighing the short-term pressures described.Positive Updates
Strong Cash Generation
Delivered over $1.1 billion in free cash flow in 2025 and expects a similar amount in 2026; historically delivered >$1 of free cash flow for every $1 of underlying earnings over the past 5 years.
Negative Updates
Industrywide Volume Declines and Uncertainty
2025 experienced material industry declines and continued uncertainty in 2026, with secular shifts in consumer behavior (younger consumers moving away from beer) posing top-line challenges.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Cash Generation
Delivered over $1.1 billion in free cash flow in 2025 and expects a similar amount in 2026; historically delivered >$1 of free cash flow for every $1 of underlying earnings over the past 5 years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to roughly the same free cash flow in 2026 as 2025 (~$1.1B) while launching a three‑year cost‑savings program targeting up to $450M (savings begin in 2026) and rebasing annual CapEx to about $650M; they warned of an incremental COGS headwind from Midwest premium/aluminum of roughly $125M in 2026 (vs. a prior ~$40–45M exposure) but plan to fund targeted reinvestment and disciplined M&A (assets sized to add ~1–2% NSR annually, roughly $200–$350M per deal) from cash from operations. Financial priorities include maintaining a leverage ratio below 2.5x after net debt of ~$5.4B and leverage ~2.3x at year‑end 2025, continuing a sustainably growing dividend, and expanding the share‑repurchase authorization to up to $4B (inclusive of ~ $1.4B already spent, ~72% of the prior $2B program). Operational/portfolio targets called out were getting Beyond Beer to ~10% of revenue, driving premiumization (+~5 percentage points), retaining ~70% of the U.S. share gains from 2023, and returning the business to low‑single‑digit top‑line growth and margin improvement over the medium term.Molson Coors Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 11.14B | 11.63B | 11.70B | 10.70B | 10.28B |
| Gross Profit | 4.19B | 4.53B | 4.37B | 3.66B | 4.05B |
| EBITDA | -1.61B | 2.55B | 2.17B | 872.90M | 2.29B |
| Net Income | -2.14B | 1.12B | 948.90M | -175.30M | 1.01B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 22.74B | 26.06B | 26.38B | 25.87B | 27.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 896.50M | 969.30M | 868.90M | 600.00M | 637.40M |
| Total Debt | 6.30B | 6.19B | 6.27B | 6.61B | 7.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.20B | 12.61B | 12.94B | 12.95B | 13.95B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.23B | 13.09B | 13.20B | 12.69B | 13.42B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.07B | 1.24B | 1.41B | 840.60M | 1.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.78B | 1.91B | 2.08B | 1.50B | 1.57B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -822.10M | -648.00M | -841.70M | -625.10M | -509.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.06B | -1.14B | -981.40M | -889.50M | -1.17B |
Molson Coors Technical Analysis
Neutral
44.59
Price Trends
45.99
Negative
46.50
Negative
46.67
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.15
Negative
51.61
Neutral
51.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TAP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 44.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.43, below the 50-day MA of 45.99, and below the 200-day MA of 46.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TAP.
Molson Coors Risk Analysis
Molson Coors disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Molson Coors reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Molson Coors Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $45.00B | 13.63 | 16.90% | 8.22% | -4.48% | 5.31% | |
71 Outperform | $2.47B | 19.30 | 12.16% | ― | -2.38% | 97.63% | |
70 Outperform | $22.52B | 35.40 | 7.60% | 4.33% | 2.78% | -40.36% | |
68 Neutral | $144.96B | 10.54 | 8.17% | 1.83% | -0.33% | 18.34% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
53 Neutral | $8.42B | -4.26 | -18.18% | 4.08% | -4.18% | -301.58% | |
53 Neutral | $2.04B | 19.13 | 7.86% | 2.53% | -0.21% | -27.12% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TAP
Molson Coors
42.41
-12.91
-23.34%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
72.81
7.97
12.30%
SAM
Boston Beer
236.49
-9.31
-3.79%
CCU
Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA
10.90
-4.07
-27.18%
FMX
Fomento Economico Mexicano
112.01
13.76
14.01%
ABEV
Ambev SA
2.85
0.50
21.07%
Molson Coors Corporate Events
Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Molson Coors Posts Lower 2025 Results Amid Headwinds
Negative
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Molson Coors reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing a modest decline in sales and earnings amid a challenging macro backdrop. Fourth-quarter net sales fell 2.7% to $2.66 billion, with U.S. GAAP income...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.