Molson Coors (TAP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.07B
• Dividend Yield: 4.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.14
• Revenue Growth: -4.01%
• EPS Growth: -339.22%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,800
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 1.21
• Shares Outstanding: 185,297,880
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,734,986
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,994,391
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.82
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.53
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.51
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -9.43
• 1Y Price Target: $49.14
• Price Target Upside: -1.44% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.98
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $11.16B

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $52.00 ▲(4.29% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

The score is held back primarily by volatile profitability and a large 2025 GAAP loss/impairment, alongside guidance pointing to continued declines. Support comes from consistently positive free cash flow, an attractive dividend yield, and moderately positive technical positioning with price above key moving averages.

Positive Factors

Consistent free cash flow

Molson Coors’ repeated positive operating and free cash flow is a durable strength: it funds dividends, buybacks, debt service and brand investment even during earnings volatility. Persistent cash generation provides financial flexibility to execute restructuring and invest in long-term growth initiatives.

Strong brand portfolio momentum

Outperformance in Peroni, share gains for Topo Chico and strong Fever-Tree volumes indicate durable brand equity and portfolio depth. These brand-level wins support sustainable revenue mix improvement, channel expansion and pricing power, giving Molson Coors routes to offset broader category weakness over time.

Manageable leverage and balance sheet positioning

Reported debt metrics and commentary that net debt/EBITDA sits below target point to a reasonably healthy capital structure. This structural balance-sheet strength limits refinancing risk, supports continued capital returns and gives headroom to invest or absorb cyclical shocks without needing immediate dilutive financing.

Negative Factors

Large goodwill and intangible impairments

A $3.6B goodwill impairment and material intangible write-offs signal past overpayment or weaker-than-expected cash flows from key assets. This reduces equity, constrains future earnings capacity, raises impairment risk on acquisitions, and undermines management’s ability to deploy capital for strategic M&A without elevated accounting volatility.

Structural revenue decline and cautious guidance

Management’s guidance for continued top-line and underlying profit declines points to persistent demand and mix headwinds. Structural or regional softening in volumes can erode scale economics and long-term margin recovery, forcing ongoing cost actions and limiting the pace of reinvestment in growth initiatives.

Industry weakness and input-cost pressure

A contracting core category and rising commodity costs present a multiyear margin challenge. Even with restructuring, persistent input inflation and shifting consumer preferences reduce pricing power and increase the difficulty of restoring consistent profitability, elevating execution risk for long-term margin sustainability.

Molson Coors Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Molson Coors Beverage Company manufactures, markets, and sells beer and other malt beverage products under various brands in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. It offers flavored malt beverages, craft, and ready to drink beverages. The company was formerly known as Molson Coors Brewing Company and changed its name to Molson Coors Beverage Company in January 2020. Molson Coors Beverage Company was founded in 1774 and is based in Golden, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Molson Coors generates revenue primarily through the sale of beer and other beverages. The company operates a revenue model based on direct sales to retail outlets, bars, and restaurants, as well as through distribution agreements with wholesalers. Key revenue streams include the sales of their flagship beer brands, craft beers, and the emerging non-alcoholic beverage segment. Additionally, partnerships with various distributors and retailers enhance market access and visibility for their products. The company also engages in marketing and promotional activities to drive brand loyalty and expand its customer base, contributing to overall earnings. Seasonal and regional variations in beer consumption, along with strategic pricing strategies, further impact their revenue generation.

Molson Coors Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: revenue has been flat to modestly down with a sharp decline in 2025 and highly volatile profitability, culminating in a large 2025 loss that pressured equity. Offsetting this, operating cash flow and free cash flow remained positive each year, supporting flexibility despite weaker recent cash conversion.

Income Statement

Revenue has been broadly flat to modestly down over the period, with a sharp decline in 2025 after near-stable results in 2024. Profitability is volatile: the company was profitable in 2021, 2023, and 2024 with healthy mid-to-high single-digit net margins, but posted losses in 2020, 2022, and a very large loss in 2025 (negative net margin). Gross margin has been relatively steady in the high-30% range, but the large 2025 loss meaningfully weakens the earnings quality and consistency.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable for the industry, with debt-to-equity generally in the ~0.47–0.67 range and trending better versus 2020. However, equity declined materially in 2025 versus 2024, consistent with the large loss, and returns to shareholders swung sharply negative in 2025 after positive returns in 2021/2023/2024. Overall, the balance sheet looks reasonably supported by equity, but earnings-driven equity volatility is a key risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been consistently positive, with operating cash flow and free cash flow positive in every year shown, which is a key strength despite uneven earnings. That said, free cash flow growth is volatile and notably negative in 2024 and 2025, and cash flow covered only a modest portion of net income in 2024 and especially 2025, signaling weaker conversion versus prior years. Still, the ability to remain free-cash-flow positive through loss years supports financial flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.14B	11.63B	11.70B	10.70B	10.28B
Gross Profit	4.19B	4.53B	4.37B	3.66B	4.05B
EBITDA	-1.61B	2.55B	2.17B	872.90M	2.29B
Net Income	-2.14B	1.12B	948.90M	-175.30M	1.01B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	22.74B	26.06B	26.38B	25.87B	27.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	896.50M	969.30M	868.90M	600.00M	637.40M
Total Debt	6.30B	6.19B	6.27B	6.61B	7.21B
Total Liabilities	12.20B	12.61B	12.94B	12.95B	13.95B
Stockholders Equity	10.23B	13.09B	13.20B	12.69B	13.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.07B	1.24B	1.41B	840.60M	1.05B
Operating Cash Flow	1.78B	1.91B	2.08B	1.50B	1.57B
Investing Cash Flow	-822.10M	-648.00M	-841.70M	-625.10M	-509.90M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.06B	-1.14B	-981.40M	-889.50M	-1.17B

Molson Coors Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 49.86
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TAP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 49.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.30, above the 50-day MA of 48.73, and above the 200-day MA of 48.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TAP.

Molson Coors Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABEV	80 Outperform	$48.78B	17.16	17.42%	8.22%	-0.68%	4.29%
CCU	70 Outperform	$2.59B	18.67	9.07%	2.53%	16.59%	1.72%
SAM	68 Neutral	$2.49B	27.28	9.58%	―	-1.13%	24.34%
BUD	68 Neutral	$157.54B	22.82	8.29%	1.83%	-2.06%	21.03%
FMX	65 Neutral	$22.59B	50.59	5.48%	4.33%	1.44%	-38.87%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
TAP	54 Neutral	$10.07B	-4.46	-18.35%	4.08%	-4.01%	-339.22%

Molson Coors Corporate Events

Molson Coors Posts Lower 2025 Results Amid Headwinds

On February 18, 2026, Molson Coors reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing a modest decline in sales and earnings amid a challenging macro backdrop. Fourth-quarter net sales fell 2.7% to $2.66 billion, with U.S. GAAP income before tax down 23.1% to $266.3 million and underlying pre-tax income down 13.8% in constant currency, while diluted underlying EPS slipped 6.9% to $1.21 as both financial and brand volumes declined.

For full-year 2025, net sales decreased 4.2% to $11.14 billion and the company swung to a U.S. GAAP pre-tax loss of $2.52 billion, driven largely by a $3.65 billion partial goodwill impairment and $273.9 million of intangible asset impairments recorded in the third quarter. Despite the headline loss, underlying pre-tax income fell a lesser 14.7% in constant currency to $1.39 billion and underlying diluted EPS declined 9.1% to $5.42, while strong cash generation of $1.78 billion from operations and $1.14 billion of free cash flow supported dividends and share buybacks, reinforcing management’s message of financial resilience but underscoring ongoing pressure from lower volumes and commodity inflation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TAP) stock is a Sell with a $49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Molson Coors stock, see the TAP Stock Forecast page.

Molson Coors Announces Departure of Chief Commercial Officer

On November 14, 2025, Molson Coors Beverage Company announced the departure of their Chief Commercial Officer, Michelle St. Jacques. As part of her exit, she entered into a severance agreement that includes a payout of $750,282 over 52 weeks, with conditions affecting the payout if she joins a competitor or other employment. The agreement also outlines the continuation of certain benefits and the handling of her equity awards.

The most recent analyst rating on (TAP) stock is a Hold with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Molson Coors stock, see the TAP Stock Forecast page.