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Molson Coors (TAP)
NYSE:TAP

Molson Coors (TAP) AI Stock Analysis

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Molson Coors

(NYSE:TAP)

Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$51.00
▲(3.28%Upside)
Molson Coors' overall score reflects a mix of strong valuation metrics and financial stability, offset by challenging macroeconomic conditions and bearish technical indicators. The stock's undervaluation and dividend yield are key strengths, although earnings guidance and market sentiment remain cautious.
Positive Factors
Company Strategy
Encouragement is drawn from TAP’s progress on its transformation journey to premiumize and diversify its portfolio beyond beer while strengthening its core power brands.
Market Trends
Recent beer category scanner data trends have sequentially improved, showing a more modest decline despite a challenging macro/operating environment.
Shareholder Value
The Buy recommendation is based on the cash flow now becoming available to be returned to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
Molson Coors reported Q1 results that missed both analyst and consensus expectations significantly, with substantial volume declines in both the Americas and EMEA and Asia-Pacific segments.
Industry Competition
For the beer industry, Spirits are wolves, winning share of throat and now pushing more directly into beer occasions with ready to drink.
Market Conditions
The US beer industry continues to decline below historic trends, market share loss continues and valuation reflects uncertainty.

Molson Coors (TAP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Molson Coors Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMolson Coors Beverage Company, trading under the ticker symbol TAP, is a multinational brewing company with a rich heritage dating back to 1786. Headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, the company operates in the beverage sector, primarily focusing on the production and distribution of beer. Molson Coors owns a diverse portfolio of brands, including iconic names like Coors Light, Miller Lite, Molson Canadian, and Blue Moon, among others. The company serves a wide range of markets across North America, Europe, and other regions, positioning itself as one of the leading beer producers globally.
How the Company Makes MoneyMolson Coors generates revenue primarily through the production, marketing, and sale of beers and other beverages. The company's key revenue streams include sales from its diverse portfolio of brands, which are distributed to retail outlets, bars, restaurants, and other venues. Molson Coors also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings. Additionally, the company leverages its extensive distribution network and marketing capabilities to drive sales across various geographic regions. Factors such as brand strength, market presence, and consumer preferences significantly contribute to its earnings, along with efforts to innovate and adapt to changing market trends.

Molson Coors Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -12.32%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call reflects significant challenges due to macroeconomic pressures influencing consumer behavior and financial metrics. Despite strong performance in core brands and strategic partnerships like Fever-Tree, the overall outlook has been adjusted to anticipate declines rather than growth, indicating challenges outweigh achievements.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Core Power Brands Share Growth
Coors Light, Miller Lite, and Coors Banquet have combined 15.4 volume share as compared to 13.5 in the first quarter of 2023, demonstrating a 1.9 share point increase. Coors Banquet's volume is up double digits, and it is growing industry share for the 15th consecutive quarter.
Fever-Tree Partnership and Growth Potential
Molson Coors acquired an 8.5% equity stake in Fever-Tree Drinks PLC and has exclusive commercialization rights in the U.S. Fever-Tree's U.S. volume was approximately 500,000 hectoliters in 2024, adding substantial scale to Molson Coors' non-alcohol operations.
Premiumization and Innovation
Madrí's net brand revenue was up high single digits, supporting premiumization. In Beyond Beer, ZOA, and Fever-Tree are expanding, with ZOA gaining key chain accounts and Fever-Tree leveraging Molson Coors' distribution network.
Negative Updates
Decline in Quarterly Financial Metrics
Consolidated net sales revenue decreased by 10.4%, underlying pre-tax income fell by 49.5%, and underlying earnings per share dropped by 47.4%. U.S. financial volume was down 15.7%, with U.S. brand volume down 8.8%.
Macroeconomic Challenges and Updated Guidance
Due to macroeconomic pressures and reduced consumer confidence, Molson Coors revised its full-year guidance to reflect a low single-digit net sales revenue decline and a low single-digit underlying pre-tax income decline, compared to previous growth expectations.
Volume and Shipment Challenges
Factors such as shipment timing due to a strike at Fort Worth brewery, reduced contract brewing volume, and one less trading day impacted U.S. brand volume by 140 basis points.
Company Guidance
During Molson Coors Beverage Company's first-quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2025, key guidance metrics were updated to reflect a challenging macroeconomic environment. The company now anticipates a low single-digit decline in net sales revenue and underlying pre-tax income on a constant currency basis, a shift from previous expectations of low single-digit and mid-single-digit growth, respectively. Underlying earnings per share is projected to grow in the low single digits, revised from high single-digit growth. Despite these adjustments, the company reaffirms its underlying free cash flow guidance of $1.3 billion, plus or minus 10%. Capital expenditures guidance has been reduced to $650 million, plus or minus 5%, from $750 million, plus or minus 5%, as the company prioritizes projects that align with significant cost savings or critical growth initiatives. The challenging economic conditions have pressured consumption trends, leading to a 10.4% drop in consolidated net sales revenue and a 49.5% decrease in underlying pre-tax income for the quarter.

Molson Coors Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Molson Coors shows solid profitability with healthy gross and net profit margins. However, the slight decline in revenue and negative free cash flow growth rate indicate pressures. The balance sheet remains stable with moderate leverage and a robust return on equity.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Molson Coors shows solid profitability with a Gross Profit Margin of 38.36% and a Net Profit Margin of 9.13% for the TTM. However, there is a slight decline in revenue, with a negative Revenue Growth Rate of -2.51% compared to the previous year. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, at 14.19% and 22.00% respectively, indicating efficient operational performance.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company maintains a stable financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.48, reflecting moderate leverage. The Return on Equity is robust at 7.91%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio stands at 50.47%, indicating a balanced capital structure.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Molson Coors demonstrates solid cash flow generation with an Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.73 and a Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.06. However, the Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is negative at -11.21%, suggesting pressure on cash flow growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue11.33B11.63B11.70B10.70B10.28B9.65B
Gross Profit4.35B4.53B4.37B3.66B4.05B3.77B
EBITDA2.49B1.75B2.16B1.81B2.29B564.00M
Net Income1.04B1.12B948.90M-186.50M1.01B-945.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets25.93B26.06B26.38B25.87B27.62B27.33B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments412.70M969.30M868.90M600.00M637.40M770.10M
Total Debt6.24B6.19B6.27B6.56B7.16B8.28B
Total Liabilities12.48B12.61B12.94B12.95B13.95B14.71B
Stockholders Equity13.09B13.09B13.20B12.69B13.42B12.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.10B1.24B1.41B840.60M1.05B1.12B
Operating Cash Flow1.79B1.91B2.08B1.50B1.57B1.70B
Investing Cash Flow-776.80M-648.00M-841.70M-625.10M-509.90M-413.60M
Financing Cash Flow-1.05B-1.14B-981.40M-889.50M-1.17B-1.07B

Molson Coors Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price49.38
Price Trends
50DMA
52.56
Negative
100DMA
55.94
Negative
200DMA
55.93
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.09
Negative
RSI
43.04
Neutral
STOCH
76.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TAP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 49.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.34, below the 50-day MA of 52.56, and below the 200-day MA of 55.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TAP.

Molson Coors Risk Analysis

Molson Coors disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Molson Coors reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Molson Coors Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
BUBUD
79
Outperform
$136.73B23.507.31%1.53%0.58%9.94%
CCCCU
77
Outperform
$2.47B14.0611.33%3.26%6.18%61.39%
75
Outperform
$38.47B14.7215.09%3.67%1.25%-13.02%
TATAP
65
Neutral
$9.95B9.857.90%3.84%-5.17%-0.74%
SASAM
65
Neutral
$2.21B32.837.36%0.79%-24.27%
STSTZ
65
Neutral
$30.03B49.10-5.05%2.40%-0.47%-117.62%
54
Neutral
C$4.47B4.06-20.57%3.87%8.18%1.50%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TAP
Molson Coors
49.38
0.54
1.11%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
67.56
7.98
13.39%
SAM
Boston Beer
198.34
-86.40
-30.34%
CCU
Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA
13.30
1.46
12.33%
STZ
Constellation Brands
170.55
-77.55
-31.26%
ABEV
Ambev SA
2.41
0.43
21.72%

Molson Coors Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Molson Coors Extends Credit Agreement with Citibank
Positive
Jun 27, 2025

On June 26, 2025, Molson Coors Beverage Company entered into an Extension Agreement with Citibank and other lenders to extend the maturity date of its revolving credit commitments from June 26, 2029, to June 26, 2030. This extension reflects the company’s efforts to enhance its financial flexibility and stability, potentially impacting its operational strategy and stakeholder confidence positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (TAP) stock is a Hold with a $62.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Molson Coors stock, see the TAP Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Molson Coors Stockholders Approve Incentive Plan Amendments
Neutral
May 16, 2025

At the 2025 Annual Meeting held on May 14, Molson Coors stockholders approved significant amendments to the company’s Incentive Compensation Plan, increasing the share issuance limit by 5 million and extending the plan’s term to 2035. Additionally, stockholders voted on several proposals, including the election of directors and the ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting ongoing governance and operational adjustments.

The most recent analyst rating on (TAP) stock is a Hold with a $67.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Molson Coors stock, see the TAP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Molson Coors CEO Announces Retirement Plans
Neutral
Apr 14, 2025

On April 12, 2025, Gavin D.K. Hattersley announced his intention to retire as President and CEO of Molson Coors Beverage Company by the end of 2025. To ensure a smooth leadership transition, the company has issued retention awards to key executives. Hattersley’s tenure saw significant growth and strategic partnerships, enhancing the company’s market position and financial health. The Board has initiated a search for a new CEO to continue building on Hattersley’s successful strategies.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 28, 2025