Molson Coors Beverage (TAP)
NYSE:TAP
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Molson Coors
(NYSE:TAP)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$45.00
▲(0.92% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by the deterioration to sizable losses despite strong revenue growth, which undermines earnings quality even as cash flow remains solid and leverage is manageable. Valuation (moderate P/E and strong dividend yield) and a reaffirmed outlook with active capital returns provide support, but technicals remain subdued with negative MACD and the stock below key longer-term moving averages.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Persistent, large operating cash flow and solid free cash flow provide durable liquidity to fund dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. Even while accounting profits are weak, sustained cash conversion supports capital allocation and reduces near-term refinancing pressure, underpinning financial flexibility.
Negative Factors
Material profitability deterioration
A substantial swing to accounting losses and negative margins materially lowers earnings quality and return on equity. This erosion of profitability is structural risk: sustained weak margins can impair reinvestment, weaken stakeholder confidence, and limit the durability of dividends and buybacks absent a clear path back to positive margins.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Persistent, large operating cash flow and solid free cash flow provide durable liquidity to fund dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. Even while accounting profits are weak, sustained cash conversion supports capital allocation and reduces near-term refinancing pressure, underpinning financial flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Molson Coors Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Geography
Displays sales totals across territories to indicate where Molson Coors is growing or shrinking, helping investors judge market diversification, pricing power and reliance on specific regions.
Displays sales totals across territories to indicate where Molson Coors is growing or shrinking, helping investors judge market diversification, pricing power and reliance on specific regions.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMolson Coors (TAP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.25B
Dividend Yield4.08%
Average Volume (3M)3.26M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.4
Beta (1Y)0.18
Revenue Growth-1.30%
EPS Growth-312.85%
CountryUS
Employees16,800
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-10.63
Shares Outstanding175,215,420
10 Day Avg. Volume3,359,158
30 Day Avg. Volume3,257,635
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)0.82
P/FCF Ratio8.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.67
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-8.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.71Price Target Upside4.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)4.74
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.13B
Molson Coors Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Molson Coors Beverage Company manufactures, markets, and sells beer and other malt beverage products under various brands in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. It offers flavored malt beverages, craft, and ready to drink ...
How the Company Makes Money
Molson Coors makes money primarily by selling branded beverages—mainly beer—into various channels and geographies. Revenue is generated when the company sells finished products (kegs, bottles, cans, and other packaged formats) to customers such as...
Molson Coors Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced meaningful near-term headwinds (commodity inflation, regional volume declines, Q2 shipment variability and elevated MG&A) with several constructive outcomes: strong profitability improvement in Q1 (underlying pretax income +16.2%, underlying EPS +24%), active capital returns (repurchases and dividend increase), strategic M&A to accelerate Beyond Beer, and operating/cost-saving actions. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and emphasized confidence in execution while acknowledging work to stabilize core brands and manage cost inflation.Positive Updates
Profitability Improvement
Underlying pretax income rose 16.2% year-over-year in Q1 and underlying diluted earnings per share increased 24%, reflecting stronger margin performance despite a mixed top-line.
Negative Updates
U.S. Share and Industry Pressure
U.S. beer industry volumes were down 1.6% in Q1 and the company's U.S. volume share declined ~60 basis points vs. prior year, with Miller Lite facing regional competitive pressure that management is actively addressing.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Profitability Improvement
Underlying pretax income rose 16.2% year-over-year in Q1 and underlying diluted earnings per share increased 24%, reflecting stronger margin performance despite a mixed top-line.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance and quantified drivers: Q1 consolidated net sales revenue was +0.1% (constant currency), underlying pretax income +16.2% and underlying EPS +24%; the U.S. beer industry was down 1.6% in Q1 with Molson Coors’ U.S. volume share down 60 bps, and the company now expects U.S. shipments to be down 6%–9% in Q2 (with shipments outpacing brand volumes in H2) while full‑year U.S. industry trends should improve versus 2025’s -5%; EMEA/APAC brand volume declined 3.4% in Q1; commodity inflation remains a headwind—Midwest premium added roughly $13–30M YoY to Q1 COGS and prior commentary tied elevated Midwest premium to at least a $125M (≈9–10 ppt pretax income) headwind—though management says it has meaningful hedges; North America net price increases of 1%–2% are expected; balance sheet metrics: net debt/underlying EBITDA was 2.5x at quarter end with year‑end leverage expected below 2.5x; capital allocation: buyback authorization increased to up to $4.0B through 12/31/2031, $164M was used to repurchase 3.4M shares in Q1 (14.8% of Class B repurchased since Oct‑2023), $94M of dividends were paid and the quarterly dividend was raised to $0.48 (+2.1%, fifth consecutive increase); strategic items: Monaco Cocktails is expected to contribute ~1% to global MSR on a TTM basis and ~9 months of NSR/profit in 2026, the company is executing a 3‑year $450M cost‑savings program, MG&A is expected to increase versus 2025 (while G&A was down 9.1% in Q1 after lapping ~$30M of prior transition costs), and a $2.4B debt maturity in July leaves $1.1B–$1.9B of potential refinancing scope.Molson Coors Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 11.19B | 11.14B | 11.63B | 11.70B | 10.70B | 10.28B |
| Gross Profit | 4.23B | 4.19B | 4.53B | 4.37B | 3.66B | 4.05B |
| EBITDA | -1.54B | -1.61B | 2.55B | 2.17B | 872.90M | 2.29B |
| Net Income | -2.11B | -2.14B | 1.12B | 948.90M | -175.30M | 1.01B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 22.37B | 22.74B | 26.06B | 26.38B | 25.87B | 27.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 382.60M | 896.50M | 969.30M | 868.90M | 600.00M | 637.40M |
| Total Debt | 6.27B | 6.30B | 6.19B | 6.27B | 6.61B | 7.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.02B | 12.20B | 12.61B | 12.94B | 12.95B | 13.95B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.06B | 10.23B | 13.09B | 13.20B | 12.69B | 13.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.17B | 1.07B | 1.24B | 1.41B | 840.60M | 1.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.88B | 1.78B | 1.91B | 2.08B | 1.50B | 1.57B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -710.90M | -822.10M | -648.00M | -841.70M | -625.10M | -509.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.21B | -1.06B | -1.14B | -981.40M | -889.50M | -1.17B |
Molson Coors Technical Analysis
Negative
44.59
Price Trends
42.89
Negative
45.67
Negative
45.99
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.60
Negative
46.58
Neutral
28.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TAP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 44.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.06, above the 50-day MA of 42.89, and below the 200-day MA of 45.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TAP.
Molson Coors Risk Analysis
Molson Coors disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Molson Coors reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Molson Coors Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $49.24B | 15.66 | 17.19% | 8.22% | -0.41% | 13.36% | |
70 Outperform | $24.44B | 1.14 | 12.11% | 4.33% | 10.32% | 5.93% | |
68 Neutral | $160.18B | 18.58 | 8.66% | 1.83% | -0.33% | 18.34% | |
63 Neutral | $2.17B | 8.72 | 7.53% | 2.53% | 0.23% | -28.74% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | $8.25B | 13.44 | -19.15% | 4.08% | -1.30% | -312.85% | |
52 Neutral | $1.81B | -4.14 | -7.30% | ― | -4.69% | -204.08% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TAP
Molson Coors
41.95
-12.81
-23.40%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
81.91
14.24
21.04%
SAM
Boston Beer
178.79
-64.46
-26.50%
CCU
Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA
11.47
-2.33
-16.87%
FMX
Fomento Economico Mexicano
121.86
21.25
21.12%
ABEV
Ambev SA
3.15
0.78
33.08%
Molson Coors Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Molson Coors Shareholders Reelect Board, Ensuring Governance Continuity
Positive
May 8, 2026
At the May 6, 2026 annual meeting, Molson Coors stockholders voted on the election of directors for one-year terms, with detailed results reported separately for the company’s dual-class share structure. All listed Class A director nominees,...
Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Molson Coors Posts Lower 2025 Results Amid Headwinds
Negative
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Molson Coors reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing a modest decline in sales and earnings amid a challenging macro backdrop. Fourth-quarter net sales fell 2.7% to $2.66 billion, with U.S. GAAP income...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.