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Ambev SA
(NYSE:ABEV)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$3.50
▲(14.38% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high and stable margins, very low leverage, and robust cash generation) and a constructive earnings update (maintained guidance with EBITDA/EPS growth and strong cash flow). Valuation is supportive with a ~4.2% dividend yield and mid-teens P/E. Technicals are more neutral with the stock trading near key moving averages, tempering the overall score.
Positive Factors
High and stable profitability with low leverage
Sustained mid-to-high double-digit net margins and a ~32% EBITDA margin, combined with minimal debt (debt-to-equity ~3–6%), provide structural resiliency. This durable earnings quality and low leverage support reinvestment, shareholder returns, and resilience to cyclical headwinds over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Choppy top-line growth and uneven revenue trends
Intermittent revenue weakness across years reduces predictability of long‑term sales trends. Reliance on geographic mix and specific categories to drive growth increases execution risk; inconsistent top-line performance complicates capacity planning, margin forecasting and capital allocation decisions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High and stable profitability with low leverage
Sustained mid-to-high double-digit net margins and a ~32% EBITDA margin, combined with minimal debt (debt-to-equity ~3–6%), provide structural resiliency. This durable earnings quality and low leverage support reinvestment, shareholder returns, and resilience to cyclical headwinds over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Ambev SA (ABEV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$49.51B
Dividend Yield4.21%
Average Volume (3M)21.72M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.4
Beta (1Y)0.15
Revenue Growth-0.41%
EPS Growth13.36%
CountryUS
Employees39,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.04
Shares Outstanding15,763,665,000
10 Day Avg. Volume18,590,770
30 Day Avg. Volume21,719,522
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.80
Price to Book (P/B)2.40
Price to Sales (P/S)2.39
P/FCF Ratio10.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.20Price Target Upside4.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.11B
Ambev SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ambev S.A. (ABEV) is a beverage company and a subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch InBev that produces, distributes, and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks primarily across Latin America, with major operations in Brazil and additional businesses in ...
How the Company Makes Money
Ambev makes money primarily by selling beverages to a wide range of customers, including supermarkets and wholesalers, bars and restaurants (on-premise), convenience stores, and other retailers (off-premise). Its core revenue stream is beer, where...
Ambev SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: volume growth (notably in Beer), double-digit EPS/net income expansion, robust operating cash flow, marketplace acceleration and market-share gains across key markets. These positives were tempered by several notable headwinds — Brazil NAB weakness (partly strategic), adverse weather effects that suppressed industry volumes, localized disruptions in Bolivia, higher Brazil COGS in H1, and elevated household financial pressure. On balance, the company's execution, margin expansion and cash generation substantially outweigh the challenges, which management positions as manageable or partially transitory.Positive Updates
Quarterly Volume and Beer Growth
Total volumes grew 1.4% year-over-year in Q2, with Beer volumes up mid-single digits; first half total volumes grew 0.7% with Beer volumes growing ahead of the total.
Negative Updates
Brazil NAB Volume Decline
Brazil Non-Alcoholic Beverages (NAB) volumes declined 4.4% in Q2; ~30% of the decline was due to strategic phase-out of a lower-return fast-food channel, prolonging a year-over-year headwind over subsequent quarters despite double-digit NAB EBITDA growth and >300 bps margin expansion.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Volume and Beer Growth
Total volumes grew 1.4% year-over-year in Q2, with Beer volumes up mid-single digits; first half total volumes grew 0.7% with Beer volumes growing ahead of the total.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management left full‑year Brazil beer cash COGS per hectoliter guidance unchanged at +4.5%–7.5% and framed the business to convert Q2 momentum into H2: Q2 volumes +1.4% YoY (beer mid‑single‑digit), Q2 net revenue +6%, Q2 normalized EBITDA +8.9% to BRL 6.4bn (+80bps margin expansion) and Q2 normalized EPS up ~24% to BRL 0.22; H1 totals were: volumes +0.7%, net revenue +7%, normalized EBITDA ≈+9.6%–10% (1.3x operational leverage), normalized net income +10.1% and operating cash flow ~BRL 7.9–8.0bn. They also noted cost and tax dynamics (consolidated cash COGS/hL ex‑Marketplace +2.2% in Q2; Brazil beer cash COGS/hL +9.7% H1), consolidated cash SG&A +10.7% in Q2, net financial expenses BRL 486m (‑50% YoY), ETR 19.9% in Q2 (20.6% H1), strong digital momentum (Bees GMV ≈+60% in Q2 and H1; H1 Marketplace gross margin +6.7pp to 22%), and continued shareholder returns (≈95% of 208m share buyback executed ~BRL 3.2bn, 2025 IOC BRL 4.2bn payable, 2026 IOC declared BRL 1.8bn; ~BRL 5.9bn returned to date).Ambev SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 88.27B | 88.24B | 89.45B | 79.74B | 79.71B | 72.85B |
| Gross Profit | 45.81B | 45.38B | 45.84B | 40.45B | 39.29B | 37.19B |
| EBITDA | 29.69B | 28.97B | 29.01B | 24.27B | 23.08B | 20.99B |
| Net Income | 16.25B | 15.50B | 14.44B | 14.50B | 14.46B | 12.67B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 138.21B | 148.11B | 162.51B | 132.64B | 137.96B | 138.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.35B | 20.32B | 29.84B | 16.34B | 15.38B | 18.54B |
| Total Debt | 2.95B | 5.35B | 3.45B | 3.50B | 3.85B | 3.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 49.32B | 59.34B | 62.93B | 52.50B | 54.63B | 54.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 88.31B | 87.91B | 98.64B | 78.97B | 81.96B | 82.64B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 24.02B | 19.86B | 21.35B | 18.71B | 14.11B | 15.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 28.04B | 24.45B | 26.10B | 24.71B | 20.64B | 22.90B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.47B | -4.95B | -5.46B | -5.77B | -5.00B | -7.73B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -19.63B | -26.77B | -10.35B | -16.12B | -16.34B | -16.04B |
Ambev SA Technical Analysis
Positive
3.06
Price Trends
3.13
Negative
3.06
Positive
2.81
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.01
Negative
46.20
Neutral
55.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABEV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.07, below the 50-day MA of 3.13, and above the 200-day MA of 2.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ABEV.
Ambev SA Risk Analysis
Ambev SA disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ambev SA reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
New ESG regulations may be enacted and this may result in increased costs for Ambev to comply with them. Q4, 2023
2.
Our commitment to social responsibility may result in the incurrence of additional costs, and we are subject to laws, regulations and other obligations in furtherance of human rights, social justice and labor standards that may exposes us to additional contingencies. Q4, 2023
3.
Continuing high rates of inflation in Argentina may have an adverse effect on the economy and our business, financial condition and results of operations. Q4, 2023
Ambev SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $49.51B | 15.38 | 17.19% | 4.28% | -0.41% | 13.36% | |
71 Outperform | $25.48B | 21.73 | 12.01% | 6.08% | 18.16% | 89.79% | |
65 Neutral | $168.81B | 14.57 | 12.72% | 1.65% | -0.33% | 18.34% | |
64 Neutral | $22.27B | 12.41 | 23.13% | 3.14% | -9.99% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
57 Neutral | $2.14B | 17.58 | 7.53% | 2.49% | 0.23% | -28.74% | |
57 Neutral | $7.81B | -3.91 | -19.15% | 4.64% | -1.30% | -312.85% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ABEV
Ambev SA
3.11
1.01
48.24%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
86.48
29.04
50.57%
CCU
Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA
11.49
-0.08
-0.66%
STZ
Constellation Brands
130.23
-35.22
-21.29%
FMX
Fomento Economico Mexicano
127.99
45.18
54.56%
TAP
Molson Coors
41.56
-5.05
-10.84%
Ambev SA Corporate Events
Ambev Files July 2026 Form 6-K, Reaffirming U.S. Reporting Status
Jul 30, 2026
Ambev S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the month of July 2026, formally documenting its status and compliance as a foreign private issuer. The filing, signed on July 30, 2026 by Chief Financial and Investo...
Ambev Board Sets 2026 Interest-on-Capital Payouts and Confirms Logistics EVP Start Date
Jul 30, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Ambev’s board approved the payment schedule for shareholder remuneration related to interest on capital declared in December 2025, setting October 6, 2026, as the date for the third and final installment at a gross R$0.1185...
Ambev Approves R$2.7 Billion in Interest on Capital Payments for 2026
Jul 30, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Ambev’s board approved the payment of the third and final installment of interest on capital originally declared on December 9, 2025, with shareholders of record in December 2025 set to receive a net R$0.1007 per share on O...
Ambev Secures Clean Review on June 30, 2026 Interim Financials
Jul 30, 2026
Ambev released its interim consolidated financial statements for the quarter and six-month period ended June 30, 2026, which were reviewed by PricewaterhouseCoopers in accordance with international standards for interim reviews. The auditor issued...
Ambev Delivers Strong Q2 2026 Results, Boosts Payouts and Launches Spaten Pro
Jul 30, 2026
Ambev reported solid second-quarter and first-half 2026 results, highlighting beer-led growth and operational discipline. In 2Q26, consolidated volumes rose 1.4% and net revenue grew 6.1% year-on-year, with all business units contributing to top-l...
Ambev Boosts Treasury Stock with June 2026 Share Buybacks
Jul 10, 2026
In June 2026, Ambev reported that its only securities and derivatives transactions involved movements in its treasury stock, in line with Brazilian CVM Instruction 44 disclosure rules. The company detailed activity in its common shares and ADR-equ...
Ambev Reports No Insider Trading Activity for June 2026
Jul 10, 2026
From June 1 to June 30, 2026, Ambev S.A. reported consolidated positions in its common shares and ADRs held by board, management and fiscal council members under Brazilian CVM Instruction 44/2021. The disclosure covers both locally listed shares a...
Ambev Discloses Modest Insider Share Movements for May 2026 Under CVM Rules
Jun 10, 2026
From May 1 to May 31, 2026, Ambev reported to regulators that members of its board, management and fiscal council engaged in limited transactions involving company shares and ADRs, under Brazil’s CVM Instruction 44/2021 on related-party secu...
Ambev Expands Treasury Share Position with Intensive May 2026 Buybacks
Jun 10, 2026
In May 2026, Ambev conducted a series of share transactions involving its own common stock, primarily through a buyback program executed via Corretora Santander and direct dealings with the company. The company also delivered restricted shares and...
Ambev S.A. Details Corporate Evolution and Historic Restructurings in May 2026 SEC Filing
May 29, 2026
The May 2026 Form 6-K from Ambev S.A. provides an extensive description of the company’s corporate evolution since its formal incorporation in 2005 as the successor to Brahma and Antarctica. It outlines how Ambev expanded its corporate purpo...
Ambev Appoints New Vice-President of Logistics Effective August 2026
May 19, 2026
On May 15, 2026, Ambev’s board of directors met in São Paulo and approved a leadership change in its executive team, specifically within the logistics function. The meeting was duly convened under the company’s bylaws, with Presid...
Ambev Publishes Consolidated Voting Results from April 30 Shareholders’ Meetings
May 12, 2026
Ambev S.A. disclosed the analytical consolidated voting map for its Ordinary and Extraordinary General Shareholders’ Meetings held on April 30, 2026 in São Paulo, as required by Brazilian securities regulation. The disclosure consolidat...
Ambev Increases Treasury Stock with April 2026 Share Buybacks
May 8, 2026
In April 2026, Ambev S.A. carried out a series of share repurchases on the Brazilian market, buying 24 million common shares through Santander Corretora at prices mostly between roughly R$15.2 and R$16.1. These operations increased the balance of ...
Ambev Discloses Minimal Insider Share Movements for April 2026
May 8, 2026
From April 1 to April 30, 2026, Ambev reported limited trading activity in its own securities by related parties, as required under Brazilian securities regulation CVM Instruction 44. The disclosures show a small renunciation transaction by member...
Ambev Files Routine Form 6-K with SEC on May 5, 2026
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Ambev S.A. submitted a Form 6-K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as part of its regular reporting as a foreign private issuer. The filing, signed by Chief Financial and Investor Relations Officer Guilherme Fleury de F...
Ambev Delivers Strong Q1 2026 Results With Higher Margins and Cash Flow
May 5, 2026
Ambev reported a solid first quarter of 2026, with consolidated volumes essentially flat year-on-year but supported by beer growth in Brazil and Central America and the Caribbean, offsetting declines in Canada, Latin America South and Brazilian no...
Ambev Releases Reviewed Q1 2026 Interim Consolidated Financial Statements
May 5, 2026
Ambev S.A. has published its interim consolidated financial statements for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, prepared under IAS 34 and reviewed by PricewaterhouseCoopers. The independent auditor issued a review conclusion on May 4, 2026 stating th...
Ambev Reshapes Board Committees, Executive Lineup and Confirms New IOC Payouts
May 5, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Ambev’s board approved a series of governance and management changes, confirming Michel Dimitrios Doukeris as chairman and setting new leadership for its Operations and Finance, Governance and People committees with mandates ...
Ambev Board Clears New 2026 Interest on Capital and Sets July Payment for 2025 Tranche
May 5, 2026
Ambev S.A. stated that its board of directors, meeting on 4 May 2026, confirmed payment of the second tranche of interest on capital related to a distribution approved on 9 December 2025, with shareholders of record in December 2025 set to receive...
Ambev Updates Bylaws and Confirms Capital Structure in April 2026 Filing
May 1, 2026
In April 2026, Ambev S.A. filed a Form 6-K detailing updated bylaws that reaffirm its broad corporate purpose, from producing and trading beverages and food-related products to activities in agriculture, logistics, energy, technology and solid-was...
Ambev Shareholders Approve 2025 Results, Profit Allocation and Board Mandate at April 30 Meetings
May 1, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Ambev held its ordinary and extraordinary general shareholders’ meetings in a fully digital format, with more than 92% of voting capital represented, to vote on 2025 financials and key governance matters. Shareholders appr...
Ambev Shareholders Back 2025 Accounts, Board Slate and Bylaw Update at April 30 Meetings
May 1, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Ambev S.A. held its Ordinary and Extraordinary General Shareholders’ Meetings, where investors overwhelmingly approved the 2025 financial statements and the allocation of net profit, including a re-ratification of certain ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.