Ambev SA (ABEV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $35.65B
• Dividend Yield: 2.06%
• Average Volume (3M): 41.06M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.24
• Revenue Growth: -0.79%
• EPS Growth: -10.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 43,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 15,761,639,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 40,098,026
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 41,060,381
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.75
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.31
• 1Y Price Target: $2.90
• Price Target Upside: 31.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $2.50 ▲(13.64% Upside)

Ambev's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and a positive earnings call, highlighting robust growth and cost efficiency. However, technical indicators suggest potential bearish momentum, and cash flow concerns slightly dampen the outlook. The valuation is fair, with a reasonable P/E ratio and a decent dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong Financial Performance

Ambev's solid financial performance, characterized by robust revenue growth and strong profitability margins, indicates a stable and efficient business model capable of sustaining long-term growth.

Cost Efficiency

Ambev's focus on cost efficiency, resulting in significant savings, enhances its operational leverage and profitability, providing a competitive advantage in managing expenses effectively.

Digital Growth Initiatives

Ambev's successful digital growth initiatives, such as the Bees Marketplace, demonstrate its ability to leverage technology for business expansion, enhancing market reach and customer engagement.

Negative Factors

Decline in Free Cash Flow

The significant decline in free cash flow growth poses a concern for Ambev's cash management, potentially affecting its ability to invest in growth opportunities and meet financial obligations.

Challenges in Argentina

Currency devaluation in Argentina has negatively impacted Ambev's financial results, highlighting the risks associated with operating in volatile economic environments.

Brazil Beer Volume Decline

The decline in beer volumes in Brazil due to adverse weather conditions indicates potential vulnerability to external factors, affecting Ambev's market share and revenue in key segments.

Ambev SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, produces, distributes, and sells beer, draft beer, carbonated soft drinks, other non-alcoholic beverages, malt, and food products in the Americas. The company operates through four segments: Brazil; Central America and the Caribbean; Latin America South; and Canada. It offers beer primarily under the Skol, Brahma, Antarctica, Brahva, Brahva Gold, Extra, Bud Light, Beck, Leffe and Hoegaarden, Bucanero, Cristal, Mayabe, Cacique, Presidente, Brahma Light, Presidente Light, Presidente Golden Light, Bohemia, The One, Corona, Modelo Especial, Stella Artois, and Budweiser, Quilmes Clásica, Paceña, Taquiña, Huari, Becker, Cusqueña, Michelob Ultra, Busch, Pilsen, Ouro Fino, Banks, Deputy, Patricia, Labatt Blue, Alexander Keith's, and Kokanee brands. The company also provides bottled water, isotonic beverages, energy drinks, coconut water, powdered and natural juices, and ready-to-drink teas under the Guaraná Antarctica, Gatorade, H2OH!, Lipton Iced Tea, Fusion, Do Bem, Pepsi, Canada Dry, Squirt, Red Rock, Pepsi-Cola, Seven Up, Nutrl, Bud Light Seltzer, Palm Bay, and Mike's brands. It offers its products through a network of third-party distributors and a direct distribution system. The company was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Ambev S.A. is a subsidiary of Interbrew International B.V.

How the Company Makes Money

Ambev generates revenue primarily through the sale of its beverage products, which include beer, soft drinks, and other non-alcoholic beverages. The company operates on a revenue model that includes both direct sales to retailers and partnerships with distributors. Key revenue streams come from the sale of its flagship beer brands, which account for a significant portion of its sales, as well as a diverse range of soft drinks. Ambev also benefits from economies of scale due to its large production capacity and extensive distribution network. Strategic partnerships with local and international retailers enhance its market reach, while the company's focus on innovation and new product development helps to capture emerging consumer trends. Additionally, the company engages in promotional activities and marketing campaigns to drive brand loyalty and increase market share.

Ambev SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ambev SA exhibits strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability margins. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage, but the decline in free cash flow growth is a concern. Overall, the company is financially stable with effective cost management, though it should focus on improving cash flow generation.

Income Statement

Ambev SA has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 5% increase in TTM, following a 12.18% growth in the previous year. The company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 51.5% and a net profit margin of 16.08% in TTM, indicating efficient cost management and profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 24.03% and 31.87% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency. However, the slight decline in net profit margin from the previous year suggests a need to monitor cost controls.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.034, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The return on equity (ROE) is solid at 15.38%, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 65.03%, highlighting a strong capital structure. However, the slight decrease in stockholders' equity over the TTM period warrants attention.

Cash Flow

Ambev's cash flow statement shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -167.2% in TTM, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.71, indicating adequate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.82, but the negative growth in free cash flow suggests potential cash management issues that need addressing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	91.72B	89.45B	79.74B	79.71B	72.85B	58.38B
Gross Profit	47.23B	45.84B	40.45B	39.29B	37.19B	31.31B
EBITDA	27.03B	26.72B	23.46B	23.08B	22.87B	20.77B
Net Income	14.75B	14.44B	14.50B	14.46B	12.67B	11.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	142.16B	162.51B	132.64B	137.96B	138.60B	125.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.52B	29.84B	16.34B	15.38B	18.54B	18.79B
Total Debt	3.16B	3.45B	3.50B	3.85B	3.10B	4.79B
Total Liabilities	48.95B	62.93B	52.50B	54.63B	54.58B	50.05B
Stockholders Equity	92.47B	98.64B	78.97B	81.96B	82.64B	73.82B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	21.66B	21.35B	18.71B	14.11B	15.22B	14.16B
Operating Cash Flow	26.28B	26.10B	24.71B	20.64B	22.90B	18.86B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.35B	-5.46B	-5.77B	-5.00B	-7.73B	-6.80B
Financing Cash Flow	-19.14B	-10.35B	-16.12B	-16.34B	-16.04B	-8.60B

Ambev SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.20
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABEV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.21, below the 50-day MA of 2.23, and below the 200-day MA of 2.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ABEV.

Ambev SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BUD	75 Outperform	$122.26B	17.17	8.97%	1.70%	-2.06%	21.03%
ABEV	73 Outperform	$35.65B	13.54	15.08%	2.06%	-0.79%	-10.83%
CCU	71 Outperform	$2.30B	14.60	10.15%	3.69%	13.92%	32.69%
FMX	71 Outperform	$19.79B	35.11	6.88%	4.76%	-2.73%	-37.93%
TAP	66 Neutral	$9.24B	9.18	7.79%	3.97%	-5.48%	-6.99%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
STZ	57 Neutral	$24.78B	20.66	15.91%	2.90%	-5.57%	119.49%

Ambev SA Corporate Events

Ambev S.A. Reports September 2025 Share Transactions

In September 2025, Ambev S.A. reported transactions involving the delivery of restricted shares, with a total of 146,923 shares delivered at a price of R$12.30 each, amounting to a volume of R$1,807,152.90. This transaction reflects Ambev’s ongoing management of its outstanding shares in treasury, impacting its financial operations and potentially influencing shareholder value.

Ambev S.A. Reports September 2025 Securities Transactions

In September 2025, Ambev S.A. reported transactions involving its securities and derivatives, as per CVM Instruction # 358/2002. The transactions were conducted by management and related persons, with notable activities including the sale of 5,000 shares at R$12.50 each through Corretora Itaú. These transactions reflect the company’s ongoing compliance with regulatory requirements and provide insights into the trading activities of its management, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market dynamics.

Ambev S.A. Reports August 2025 Securities Transactions

From August 1st to 31st, 2025, Ambev S.A. reported its transactions involving securities and derivatives, as required by CVM Instruction # 358/2002. The report highlighted that there were no acquisitions or changes in positions by the Board of Directors, Management, or Fiscal Council during this period. This transparency in reporting reflects Ambev’s commitment to regulatory compliance and provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial activities.

Ambev S.A. Reports August Share Transactions

In August 2025, Ambev S.A. reported transactions involving the delivery of restricted shares, amounting to 24,117 shares at a price of R$12.29 each. This transaction reflects Ambev’s ongoing management of its outstanding shares, with a final balance of 169,352,327 shares. Such activities are part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder value.

Ambev S.A. Announces Executive Leadership Changes

On August 13 and 14, 2025, Ambev S.A.’s Board of Directors convened to confirm the election of Mr. Guilherme Malik Parente as the Legal and Compliance Vice President Officer, effective September 1, 2025. This appointment is part of a broader reorganization of the company’s executive team, with all officers serving until December 31, 2027. The changes reflect Ambev’s strategic focus on strengthening its leadership and enhancing compliance and governance structures.

Ambev S.A. Reports July 2025 Securities Transactions

During July 2025, Ambev S.A. reported transactions involving securities and derivatives by its management and related persons, in compliance with regulatory requirements. The transactions included the sale of shares through Itaú Corretora, resulting in a decrease in the number of shares held by management. These activities reflect Ambev’s adherence to transparency and regulatory compliance, potentially impacting stakeholders’ perceptions of the company’s governance practices.

Ambev S.A. Reports July 2025 Securities Transactions

In July 2025, Ambev S.A. reported transactions involving its securities and derivatives, specifically the delivery of restricted shares. The company executed a transaction of 52,524 common shares at a price of R$13.38 per share, amounting to a total volume of R$702,771.12. This activity reflects Ambev’s ongoing management of its outstanding shares and treasury operations, which may impact its market positioning and shareholder value.

Ambev S.A. Releases Interim Financial Statements for Mid-2025

On August 1, 2025, Ambev S.A. released its interim consolidated financial statements for the period ending June 30, 2025. The review, conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers, concluded that the financial statements were prepared in accordance with International Accounting Standard 34. The report highlighted a decrease in total assets from December 2024 to June 2025, reflecting changes in cash and cash equivalents, trade receivables, and other financial instruments. This financial update provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s current financial health and operational adjustments.

Ambev S.A. Updates Corporate Governance Practices as of July 2025

Ambev S.A. released an updated report on its adherence to the Brazilian Code of Corporate Governance as of July 31, 2025. The report highlights the company’s practices regarding shareholder agreements, meetings, and change of control policies. It emphasizes that while certain governance practices are adopted, others are not, such as the Board of Directors’ obligation to provide opinions on public offerings for acquisition. The report underscores the company’s commitment to maximizing business opportunities and enhancing shareholder value, particularly for minority shareholders, through compliance with legal mechanisms in change of control scenarios.

Ambev S.A. Files July 2025 SEC Report

Ambev S.A. submitted a report to the Securities and Exchange Commission for July 2025, signed by Guilherme Fleury de Figueiredo Ferraz Parolari, the Chief Financial and Investor Relations Officer. This filing is part of the company’s compliance with the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, indicating its ongoing commitment to regulatory transparency and investor communication.

Ambev S.A. Announces Dividend Distribution for October 2025

On July 30, 2025, Ambev S.A. announced that its Board of Directors approved a dividend distribution of R$ 0.1283 per share, based on the extraordinary balance sheet as of June 30, 2025. The payment is scheduled for October 6, 2025, with shares and ADRs to be traded ex-dividends starting August 8, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s financial performance in the first half of 2025 and underscores its commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Ambev S.A. Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results Amid Volume Decline

Ambev S.A. reported its second-quarter results for 2025, highlighting a 7.6% growth in Normalized EBITDA and a 15.2% increase in Normalized Profit, despite a 4.5% decline in consolidated volumes due to softer industries. The company achieved a 3.4% increase in net revenue, driven by strategic revenue management and premiumization efforts, while also announcing intermediary dividends to be paid in October. The digital transformation and brand activations have contributed to the company’s resilience, with significant growth in premium and super-premium brands and digital platforms like Zé Delivery.

Ambev S.A. Announces Dividend Distribution Following Strong H1 2025 Performance

On July 30, 2025, Ambev S.A.’s Board of Directors approved the preparation of an extraordinary balance sheet as of June 30, 2025, and the distribution of dividends amounting to R$ 0.1283 per share. This decision is based on the company’s financial performance in the first half of 2025 and reflects its commitment to returning value to shareholders. The dividends will be paid on October 6, 2025, with shares and ADRs trading ex-dividends starting August 8, 2025. This move underscores Ambev’s robust financial health and strategic focus on shareholder returns.