Ambev SA (ABEV)
NYSE:ABEV
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Ambev SA
(NYSE:ABEV)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$4.00
â–˛(31.15% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
Overall score reflects strong financial quality (profitability, low leverage, and solid free cash flow) as the primary support, with a constructive technical uptrend and shareholder-friendly valuation via a high dividend yield. The main constraints are softer volume/top-line momentum and guided 2026 cost pressures, which temper the upside despite ongoing margin focus.
Positive Factors
High and stable profitability
Ambev’s consistently high gross, EBITDA and net margins, plus a 50bp consolidated EBITDA expansion, signal durable pricing power, effective cost control and premiumization. These structural margins support sustained cash flow and buffer earnings against near-term volume cycles over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Sustained volume weakness
Industry and occasion-driven volume declines materially compress top-line growth and can strain working capital and operating cash flow. Persistent volume weakness limits leverage from fixed costs and forces intensified trade spend and promotions, undermining sustainable revenue growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High and stable profitability
Ambev’s consistently high gross, EBITDA and net margins, plus a 50bp consolidated EBITDA expansion, signal durable pricing power, effective cost control and premiumization. These structural margins support sustained cash flow and buffer earnings against near-term volume cycles over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Ambev SA (ABEV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$50.99B
Dividend Yield8.22%
Average Volume (3M)27.69M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.7
Beta (1Y)0.17
Revenue Growth-0.41%
EPS Growth13.36%
CountryUS
Employees43,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.99
Shares Outstanding15,763,665,000
10 Day Avg. Volume35,182,221
30 Day Avg. Volume27,693,860
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.79
Price to Book (P/B)2.40
Price to Sales (P/S)2.39
P/FCF Ratio10.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.32
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.92Price Target Upside-4.37% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.52B
Ambev SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, produces, distributes, and sells beer, draft beer, carbonated soft drinks, other non-alcoholic beverages, malt, and food products in the Americas. The company operates through four segments: Brazil; Central Am...
How the Company Makes Money
Ambev makes money primarily by producing and selling beverages—especially beer—under a portfolio of brands, earning revenue when products are delivered to or sold through retailers, bars/restaurants, wholesalers, and other distribution partners. I...
Ambev SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a cautiously positive tone: management highlights clear progress on margin expansion, revenue per hectoliter growth, strong digital ecosystem performance (BEES and Zé Delivery), meaningful shareholder returns, and disciplined cost execution — all offsetting significant cyclical volume headwinds largely attributed to weather and occasion disruption. While several operating and macro challenges (volumes, FX losses, near-term cost inflation, and regional softness) are material, the balance of results shows resilient profitability, strategic momentum in digital and premium segments, and confidence in a gradual recovery into 2026.Positive Updates
Consolidated Margin Expansion and Profitability
Consolidated normalized EBITDA margin expanded 50 bps to 33.4% in 2025; Brazil Beer EBITDA margin expanded ~110 bps. Normalized EBITDA growth was delivered across the portfolio, and the company reported stated net income of ~BRL 16 billion with stated EPS up 8.2% YoY and normalized EPS up 2% YoY.
Negative Updates
Volume Pressure and Industry Softness
Volumes were pressured across the footprint in 2025, driven largely by cyclical and occasion-related headwinds (notably prolonged cold weather/La Niña), with October representing the main drag; although Q4 and December improved, overall volume trends were weak.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Margin Expansion and Profitability
Consolidated normalized EBITDA margin expanded 50 bps to 33.4% in 2025; Brazil Beer EBITDA margin expanded ~110 bps. Normalized EBITDA growth was delivered across the portfolio, and the company reported stated net income of ~BRL 16 billion with stated EPS up 8.2% YoY and normalized EPS up 2% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ambev’s explicit 2026 guidance centers on cost pressure and continued margin focus: Brazil Beer cash COGS per hectoliter (ex‑non‑Ambev marketplace) is guided to rise 4.5–7.5% (vs. a 6.1% increase in 2025, which landed in the first quartile of last year’s 5.5–8.5% guidance), while management reiterated the ambition to expand consolidated EBITDA margin over time after 2025 delivered +50 bps to 33.4% (Brazil Beer +110 bps) aided by net revenue per hectoliter +7.5%; other disclosed metrics to frame the outlook include BEES GMV +70% and gross margin +3.5 pp, Zé Delivery GMV BRL 4.7bn (+13%), 67m orders and 27m annual active users (+11%), 2025 operating cash flow BRL 24.5bn, CapEx ~BRL 5bn, cash returned BRL 21.7bn (~90% of OCF) including ~BRL 20bn in shareholder returns (BRL 13.2bn dividends, BRL 4.2bn IOC, BRL 2.5bn buyback, with BRL 1.2bn IOC tranche already paid), near‑BRL 4bn net financial expenses, stated net income ~BRL 16bn, stated EPS +8.2% and normalized EPS +2%, and an effective tax rate of 17.7% (absent one‑offs ~20%); management reiterated capital allocation priorities (reinvest organic growth, selective M&A, return excess cash) and said it will monitor hedges, commodities (aluminum highlighted) and portfolio mix and update guidance as the year progresses.Ambev SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 88.21B | 88.24B | 89.45B | 79.74B | 79.71B | 72.85B |
| Gross Profit | 45.41B | 45.38B | 45.84B | 40.45B | 39.29B | 37.19B |
| EBITDA | 28.97B | 28.97B | 29.01B | 24.27B | 23.08B | 20.99B |
| Net Income | 15.58B | 15.50B | 14.44B | 14.50B | 14.46B | 12.67B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 142.76B | 148.11B | 162.51B | 132.64B | 137.96B | 138.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 19.64B | 20.32B | 29.84B | 16.34B | 15.38B | 18.54B |
| Total Debt | 3.11B | 5.35B | 3.45B | 3.50B | 3.85B | 3.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 51.94B | 59.34B | 62.93B | 52.50B | 54.63B | 54.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 90.13B | 87.91B | 98.64B | 78.97B | 81.96B | 82.64B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 22.15B | 19.86B | 21.35B | 18.71B | 14.11B | 15.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 26.38B | 24.45B | 26.10B | 24.71B | 20.64B | 22.90B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.58B | -4.95B | -5.46B | -5.77B | -5.00B | -7.73B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -19.12B | -26.77B | -10.35B | -16.12B | -16.34B | -16.04B |
Ambev SA Technical Analysis
Positive
3.05
Price Trends
3.01
Positive
2.92
Positive
2.56
Positive
Market Momentum
0.05
Positive
57.63
Neutral
36.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABEV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.10, above the 50-day MA of 3.01, and above the 200-day MA of 2.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ABEV.
Ambev SA Risk Analysis
Ambev SA disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ambev SA reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
New ESG regulations may be enacted and this may result in increased costs for Ambev to comply with them. Q4, 2023
2.
Our commitment to social responsibility may result in the incurrence of additional costs, and we are subject to laws, regulations and other obligations in furtherance of human rights, social justice and labor standards that may exposes us to additional contingencies. Q4, 2023
3.
Continuing high rates of inflation in Argentina may have an adverse effect on the economy and our business, financial condition and results of operations. Q4, 2023
Ambev SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $50.99B | 15.66 | 17.19% | 8.22% | -0.41% | 13.36% | |
70 Outperform | $24.35B | 1.14 | 12.11% | 4.33% | 10.32% | 5.93% | |
68 Neutral | $164.15B | 18.58 | 8.66% | 1.83% | -0.33% | 18.34% | |
63 Neutral | $2.16B | 8.72 | 7.53% | 2.53% | 0.23% | -28.74% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | $8.04B | 13.44 | -19.15% | 4.08% | -1.30% | -312.85% | |
56 Neutral | $26.03B | 33.92 | 22.08% | 2.92% | -10.48% | ― |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ABEV
Ambev SA
3.23
0.87
37.04%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
82.51
15.05
22.30%
CCU
Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA
11.63
-2.00
-14.68%
STZ
Constellation Brands
151.18
-28.70
-15.95%
FMX
Fomento Economico Mexicano
121.55
22.79
23.08%
TAP
Molson Coors
42.76
-9.46
-18.12%
Ambev SA Corporate Events
Ambev Increases Treasury Stock with April 2026 Share Buybacks
May 8, 2026
In April 2026, Ambev S.A. carried out a series of share repurchases on the Brazilian market, buying 24 million common shares through Santander Corretora at prices mostly between roughly R$15.2 and R$16.1. These operations increased the balance of ...
Ambev Discloses Minimal Insider Share Movements for April 2026
May 8, 2026
From April 1 to April 30, 2026, Ambev reported limited trading activity in its own securities by related parties, as required under Brazilian securities regulation CVM Instruction 44. The disclosures show a small renunciation transaction by member...
Ambev Files Routine Form 6-K with SEC on May 5, 2026
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Ambev S.A. submitted a Form 6-K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as part of its regular reporting as a foreign private issuer. The filing, signed by Chief Financial and Investor Relations Officer Guilherme Fleury de F...
Ambev Delivers Strong Q1 2026 Results With Higher Margins and Cash Flow
May 5, 2026
Ambev reported a solid first quarter of 2026, with consolidated volumes essentially flat year-on-year but supported by beer growth in Brazil and Central America and the Caribbean, offsetting declines in Canada, Latin America South and Brazilian no...
Ambev Releases Reviewed Q1 2026 Interim Consolidated Financial Statements
May 5, 2026
Ambev S.A. has published its interim consolidated financial statements for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, prepared under IAS 34 and reviewed by PricewaterhouseCoopers. The independent auditor issued a review conclusion on May 4, 2026 stating th...
Ambev Reshapes Board Committees, Executive Lineup and Confirms New IOC Payouts
May 5, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Ambev’s board approved a series of governance and management changes, confirming Michel Dimitrios Doukeris as chairman and setting new leadership for its Operations and Finance, Governance and People committees with mandates ...
Ambev Board Clears New 2026 Interest on Capital and Sets July Payment for 2025 Tranche
May 5, 2026
Ambev S.A. stated that its board of directors, meeting on 4 May 2026, confirmed payment of the second tranche of interest on capital related to a distribution approved on 9 December 2025, with shareholders of record in December 2025 set to receive...
Ambev Updates Bylaws and Confirms Capital Structure in April 2026 Filing
May 1, 2026
In April 2026, Ambev S.A. filed a Form 6-K detailing updated bylaws that reaffirm its broad corporate purpose, from producing and trading beverages and food-related products to activities in agriculture, logistics, energy, technology and solid-was...
Ambev Shareholders Approve 2025 Results, Profit Allocation and Board Mandate at April 30 Meetings
May 1, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Ambev held its ordinary and extraordinary general shareholders’ meetings in a fully digital format, with more than 92% of voting capital represented, to vote on 2025 financials and key governance matters. Shareholders appr...
Ambev Shareholders Back 2025 Accounts, Board Slate and Bylaw Update at April 30 Meetings
May 1, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Ambev S.A. held its Ordinary and Extraordinary General Shareholders’ Meetings, where investors overwhelmingly approved the 2025 financial statements and the allocation of net profit, including a re-ratification of certain ...
Ambev Shareholders Signal Strong Support for Board Slate and Profit Allocation Ahead of April 30 Meetings
Apr 29, 2026
On April 28, 2026, Ambev released a consolidated synthetic voting map ahead of its ordinary and extraordinary shareholders’ meetings scheduled for April 30, 2026. The document shows strong shareholder backing for the 2025 financial statement...
Ambev Discloses March 2026 Insider Equity Transactions Under Brazilian CVM Rules
Apr 10, 2026
From March 1 to 31, 2026, Ambev S.A. reported that its board of directors’ related group slightly increased its exposure to the company, with common share holdings rising from 30,400,903 to 30,699,742 shares, while ADR positions were unchang...
Ambev Reports March 2026 Treasury Share Transactions and Purchases
Apr 10, 2026
In March 2026, Ambev S.A. reported that its only securities and derivatives activities involved movements in its own common shares held in treasury, as required under Brazilian securities regulation. The company began the month with 144,870,526 tr...
Ambev Updates Fiscal Council Slate and Refiles AGM Voting Materials After Minority Shareholder Change
Apr 3, 2026
Ambev S.A. informed shareholders on April 2, 2026, that minority investors have replaced their previously nominated alternate member of the Fiscal Council, with Vasco de Freitas Barcellos Neto now running alongside effective member Aristótele...
Ambev Board Sets 2025 Profit Allocation, 2026 Pay Limits and Approves New Share Issue
Apr 1, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Ambev’s board met by videoconference and approved a proposal to allocate 2025 net income of R$15.5 billion, directing funds to a tax incentives reserve, interest on equity, and an investments reserve, while also re-ratifyi...
Ambev Board Sets Profit Allocation, Governance Changes and Capital Increase Ahead of April 30 Meetings
Mar 31, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Ambev’s board approved a proposal to allocate the 2025 net profit of R$15.5 billion, directing funds to tax incentive and investment reserves and to interest on own capital, while also correcting prior allocations for the ...
Ambev Approves Modest Capital Increase Following 2026 Stock Option Exercises
Mar 31, 2026
On March 30, 2025, Ambev’s board approved and confirmed a capital increase tied to the exercise of stock options under its First Program for 2026, part of a stock option plan originally authorized by shareholders in July 2013. The move conve...
Ambev Calls Fully Digital 2026 Shareholders’ Meetings to Approve 2025 Results and Bylaw Changes
Mar 31, 2026
Ambev has called its shareholders to attend combined annual ordinary and extraordinary meetings on April 30, 2026, to be held exclusively in digital form via the Ten Meetings platform from its São Paulo headquarters. The meetings will address...
Ambev Details Agenda and Digital Procedures for April 30, 2026 Shareholders’ Meetings
Mar 31, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Ambev published the manual for its Annual Ordinary and Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meetings, to be held exclusively in digital format on April 30, 2026, via the Ten Meetings platform, detailing how shareholders can registe...
Ambev Sets April 30 Shareholder Meetings to Approve 2025 Results, Profit Allocation and Board Slate
Mar 31, 2026
Ambev has called ordinary and extraordinary shareholders’ meetings for April 30, 2026, to approve its 2025 financial statements, decide on profit allocation, and elect its board for a new three-year term ending in 2029. The board size is pro...
Ambev Details Remote Voting Procedures and Governance Agenda for April 30, 2026 AGM
Mar 31, 2026
Ambev S.A. has released its distance voting bulletin for the ordinary shareholders’ meeting scheduled for April 30, 2026, detailing how investors can exercise their voting rights remotely via custodians, B3’s electronic system, Banco B...
Ambev Details Remote Voting and Bylaw Changes Ahead of April 30, 2026 Meeting
Mar 31, 2026
Ambev has released its distance voting bulletin for an Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting scheduled for April 30, 2026, detailing how shareholders can exercise voting rights electronically or via custodians and the company’s digital p...
Ambev Board Accepts IT Vice President’s Resignation Effective March 4, 2026
Mar 12, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Ambev’s board of directors met in São Paulo with its full slate of members, chaired by Michel Dimitrios Doukeris, following due call under the company’s bylaws. The meeting, later reported to the U.S. Securit...
Ambev Discloses February 2026 Treasury Share Movements Under CVM Rule
Mar 10, 2026
In February 2026, Ambev S.A. reported that the only transactions involving its own securities were related to the delivery of restricted shares held in treasury, in compliance with Brazilian securities regulation CVM Instruction No. 44/2021. Over ...
Ambev Discloses February 2026 Insider Trading Activity by Management and Board
Mar 10, 2026
From February 1 to 28, 2026, Ambev reported that members of its board of directors and related parties made no trades in the company’s shares or ADRs, with their consolidated holdings unchanged at 30,400,903 common shares and 468,040 ADRs. O...
Ambev Files 2025 Form 20-F With U.S. SEC, Offers ADR Holders Free Hard Copies
Mar 4, 2026
Ambev S.A. informed investors that its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, was filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on March 3, 2026. The filing, which includes the company’s complete aud...
Ambev Files Routine February 2026 Form 6-K as Foreign Private Issuer
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, Ambev S.A. submitted a Form 6-K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, reaffirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial and Investor Relations Office...
Ambev Board Approves 2025 Financials and Sets April IOC Payment
Feb 12, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Ambev’s board of directors met by videoconference in São Paulo and unanimously approved the management report, management accounts and financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The documents...
Ambev Sets April Payment Date for First 2026 Interest-on-Capital Tranche
Feb 12, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Ambev’s board approved the payment schedule for the first tranche of previously authorized interest on own capital, tied to a distribution decision made on December 9, 2025. Shareholders of record on December 18, 2025 a...
Ambev Posts 2025 Earnings Growth Despite Volume Drop and Sets April Payout Date
Feb 12, 2026
Ambev reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 12, 2026, showing a 3.3% decline in total volumes for the year, with drops across Brazil, Latin America South, Central America and the Caribbean, and Canada. Despite softer v...
Ambev Fiscal Council Clears 2025 Financial Statements and Payout Proposals
Feb 12, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Ambev’s Fiscal Council met at the company’s São Paulo headquarters and reviewed the financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The council members formally approved the management repor...
Ambev Projects Higher 2026 Cash COGS for Brazilian Beer Business
Feb 12, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Ambev disclosed that it expects cash cost of goods sold per hectoliter for its Brazilian beer business to rise between 4.5% and 7.5% in full-year 2026, excluding non-Ambev marketplace sales and based on current commodity pric...
Ambev Discloses January 2026 Insider Trading and Holdings Data
Feb 11, 2026
Ambev disclosed that, between January 1 and 31, 2026, members of its board of directors and management reported their positions and trades in the company’s common shares and ADRs, as required by Brazilian securities regulator CVM Instruction...
Ambev Reports No Treasury Share Transactions in January 2026
Feb 11, 2026
In a regulatory filing dated February 11, 2026, Ambev S.A. reported that in January 2026 it carried out no transactions in its own securities or derivatives, as required under Brazilian securities regulator CVM Instruction 44/2021. The company dis...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.