Ambev SA (ABEV)
:ABEV
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Ambev SA (ABEV) AI Stock Analysis

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ABEV

Ambev SA

(NYSE:ABEV)

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Outperform 80 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(29.87% Upside)
Ambev SA's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including revenue growth and cost management. While technical indicators suggest potential overbought conditions, the company's fair valuation and dividend yield provide a balanced investment case.
Positive Factors
Strong Financial Performance
Ambev's strong financial performance, marked by robust revenue growth and profitability margins, indicates a solid business model and effective cost management, supporting long-term stability.
Digital Ecosystem Growth
The significant growth in Ambev's digital ecosystem, particularly BEES Marketplace, enhances its competitive edge and positions it well for future digital commerce trends.
Share Buyback Program
The share buyback program reflects confidence in Ambev's long-term value creation and can enhance shareholder value by optimizing capital allocation.
Negative Factors
Decline in Free Cash Flow
The significant decline in free cash flow growth raises concerns about cash management and could impact Ambev's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Beer Volume Decline in Brazil
The decline in beer volumes in Brazil due to industry-wide factors may affect Ambev's market share and revenue in a key market.
Increased Financial Expenses
Rising financial expenses could pressure Ambev's profitability and reduce financial flexibility, impacting long-term financial health.

Ambev SA (ABEV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ambev SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAmbev SA (ABEV) is a leading beverage company based in Brazil, primarily engaged in the production and distribution of alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks. The company operates in various sectors including beer, soft drinks, and other beverages. Its extensive portfolio includes well-known brands such as Skol, Brahma, Antarctica, and Guaraná, as well as a range of non-alcoholic drinks. Ambev is a subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch InBev and has a strong presence across Latin America, leveraging its extensive distribution network to reach a wide consumer base.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmbev generates revenue primarily through the sale of its beverage products, which include beer, soft drinks, and other non-alcoholic beverages. The company operates on a revenue model that includes both direct sales to retailers and partnerships with distributors. Key revenue streams come from the sale of its flagship beer brands, which account for a significant portion of its sales, as well as a diverse range of soft drinks. Ambev also benefits from economies of scale due to its large production capacity and extensive distribution network. Strategic partnerships with local and international retailers enhance its market reach, while the company's focus on innovation and new product development helps to capture emerging consumer trends. Additionally, the company engages in promotional activities and marketing campaigns to drive brand loyalty and increase market share.

Ambev SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call showcased significant achievements such as revenue growth, successful cost management, and expansion in the digital ecosystem. However, challenges in beer volume performance in Brazil and Argentina and increased financial expenses were notable headwinds.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Net Revenue Growth
Net revenue grew 7% per hectoliter, supporting overall growth.
EBITDA and Margin Expansion
EBITDA grew 3% with 50 basis points of margin expansion.
Share Buyback Program
A BRL 2.5 billion share buyback program was approved to return cash to shareholders.
Digital Ecosystem and BEES Marketplace
BEES Marketplace GMV grew 100% to an annualized BRL 8 billion.
Premium and Super Premium Brands Growth
Premium and super premium brands grew in volumes more than 9%.
Balanced Choices Portfolio Growth
The Balanced Choices portfolio grew 36%, including non-alcohol beers growing above 20%.
Cost Management Success
Successful cost management resulted in cost per hectoliter growing below net revenue per hectoliter.
Negative Updates
Beer Volume Decline in Brazil
Over 100% of the volume decline is explained by the industry's performance due to situational factors like weather and consumer purchasing power.
Challenging Environment in Argentina
Beer volumes declined mid-single digit due to unfavorable temporary price relativity dynamics.
Softness in Brazil NAB Sales
Revenue management decisions led to an inventory phasing impacting sell-in performance in the Brazil NAB sector.
Financial Expenses Increase
Net financial expenses increased by about BRL 400 million year-over-year.
Company Guidance
In the 2025 third quarter earnings call, Ambev provided detailed guidance on its financial and operational performance, highlighting several key metrics. The company reported a 7% increase in net revenue per hectoliter, contributing to a 3% growth in EBITDA with a 50 basis point margin expansion. Normalized earnings per share (EPS) also grew by 8%. Year-to-date, Ambev's top line increased by 4%, driven by a net revenue per hectoliter growth of 7%, leading to an EBITDA growth of over 7% with a 120 basis point margin expansion. The company has launched a BRL 2.5 billion share buyback program, reflecting confidence in its long-term value creation potential. In Brazil, premium and super premium brands grew in volume by more than 9%, and the Balanced Choices portfolio increased by 36%, including a 20% growth in non-alcoholic beers. Ambev's digital ecosystem, BEES Marketplace, maintained strong momentum with a 100% growth in gross merchandise value (GMV) to an annualized BRL 8 billion. The company also highlighted its disciplined approach to cost management, which helped maintain costs in line with previous quarters despite operational challenges.

Ambev SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ambev SA exhibits strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability margins. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage, but the decline in free cash flow growth is a concern. Overall, the company is financially stable with effective cost management, though it should focus on improving cash flow generation.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Ambev SA has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 5% increase in TTM, following a 12.18% growth in the previous year. The company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 51.5% and a net profit margin of 16.08% in TTM, indicating efficient cost management and profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 24.03% and 31.87% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency. However, the slight decline in net profit margin from the previous year suggests a need to monitor cost controls.
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.034, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The return on equity (ROE) is solid at 15.38%, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 65.03%, highlighting a strong capital structure. However, the slight decrease in stockholders' equity over the TTM period warrants attention.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Ambev's cash flow statement shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -167.2% in TTM, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.71, indicating adequate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.82, but the negative growth in free cash flow suggests potential cash management issues that need addressing.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue90.47B89.45B79.74B79.71B72.85B58.38B
Gross Profit46.83B45.84B40.45B39.29B37.19B31.31B
EBITDA28.74B26.72B23.46B23.08B21.36B20.77B
Net Income16.04B14.44B14.50B14.46B12.67B11.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets140.75B162.51B132.64B137.96B138.60B125.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments19.84B29.84B16.34B15.38B18.54B18.79B
Total Debt2.90B3.45B3.50B3.85B3.13B4.79B
Total Liabilities48.03B62.93B52.50B54.63B54.58B50.05B
Stockholders Equity92.03B98.64B78.97B81.96B82.64B73.82B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow20.61B21.35B18.71B14.11B15.22B14.16B
Operating Cash Flow25.09B26.10B24.71B20.64B22.90B18.86B
Investing Cash Flow-4.39B-5.46B-5.77B-5.00B-7.73B-6.80B
Financing Cash Flow-21.27B-10.35B-16.12B-16.34B-16.04B-8.60B

Ambev SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.31
Price Trends
50DMA
2.29
Positive
100DMA
2.28
Positive
200DMA
2.27
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.08
Negative
RSI
71.92
Negative
STOCH
76.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABEV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.37, above the 50-day MA of 2.29, and above the 200-day MA of 2.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.92 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ABEV.

Ambev SA Risk Analysis

Ambev SA disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ambev SA reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ambev SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$40.48B14.1715.97%1.79%-0.68%4.29%
75
Outperform
$125.82B17.738.97%1.91%-2.06%21.03%
73
Outperform
$19.31B41.725.48%4.74%1.44%-38.87%
70
Neutral
$2.43B16.949.07%3.71%16.59%1.72%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
57
Neutral
$22.80B19.1215.91%3.12%-5.57%119.49%
56
Neutral
$9.19B-17.66%3.98%-4.01%-339.22%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ABEV
Ambev SA
2.53
0.52
25.87%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
61.16
5.76
10.40%
CCU
Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA
13.00
2.32
21.72%
STZ
Constellation Brands
130.53
-103.96
-44.33%
FMX
Fomento Economico Mexicano
94.44
10.59
12.63%
TAP
Molson Coors
46.45
-12.35
-21.00%

Ambev SA Corporate Events

Ambev S.A. Reports Stable Securities Transactions for October 2025
Nov 10, 2025

During the month of October 2025, Ambev S.A. reported no changes in the transactions of securities and derivatives by its board of directors and management. The company’s report, in compliance with Article 11 of CVM Instruction # 358/2002, indicated that the initial and final balances of shares and ADRs remained unchanged, reflecting stability in the company’s securities activities for the period. This stability in securities transactions suggests a period of operational steadiness for Ambev, which may reassure stakeholders about the company’s current market positioning.

Ambev S.A. Reports Share Transactions for October 2025
Nov 10, 2025

In October 2025, Ambev S.A. reported transactions involving the delivery of 33,615 restricted shares at a price of R$11.99 each, totaling a volume of R$403,043.85. This transaction reflects Ambev’s ongoing management of its outstanding shares and may impact its market positioning by adjusting its share structure.

Ambev S.A. Submits October 2025 SEC Report
Oct 30, 2025

Ambev S.A., a leading beverage company based in Brazil, has submitted its monthly report for October 2025 to the Securities and Exchange Commission. This report, signed by Chief Financial and Investor Relations Officer Guilherme Fleury de Figueiredo Ferraz Parolari, is part of the company’s compliance with the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, indicating its ongoing commitment to regulatory transparency.

Ambev S.A. Enhances Transparency with New Disclosure and Trading Policy
Oct 30, 2025

Ambev S.A. has consolidated its best practices through a new Manual on Disclosure and Use of Information and Securities Trading Policy. This initiative aligns with the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission’s Ruling No. 44/21, which regulates the disclosure of material information and restricts securities trading by certain entities. The Manual aims to ensure transparency and adherence to regulations, impacting how directors and related persons manage and disclose privileged information, thereby reinforcing market integrity and investor trust.

Ambev S.A. Announces Major Share Buyback Program
Oct 30, 2025

On October 29, 2025, Ambev S.A.’s Board of Directors approved a share buyback program, allowing the repurchase of up to 208 million common shares primarily for cancellation. This initiative aims to enhance shareholder value through effective capital management. Additionally, the Board approved updates to the company’s Manual on Disclosure and Use of Information and Securities Trading Policy, facilitating the execution of the buyback program and ensuring compliance with trading regulations.

Ambev S.A. Releases Q3 2025 Financial Statements with Positive Review
Oct 30, 2025

On October 29, 2025, Ambev S.A. released its interim consolidated financial statements for the quarter and nine-month period ending September 30, 2025. The review, conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers, concluded that the financial statements were prepared in accordance with International Accounting Standard 34, with no significant issues identified. This announcement provides reassurance to stakeholders regarding the company’s financial reporting practices and its adherence to international accounting standards.

Ambev SA Reports Q3 2025 Results Amid Industry Challenges
Oct 30, 2025

Ambev SA reported its third-quarter results for 2025, highlighting a 5.8% decline in consolidated volumes due to soft industry conditions, particularly in Brazil and Canada. Despite this, the company achieved a 1.2% increase in net revenue and a 2.9% growth in normalized EBITDA, driven by effective cost management and strategic execution. The company also announced a share buyback program worth approximately R$ 2.5 billion, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth strategy. Ambev’s digital platforms, BEES and Zé Delivery, continued to show strong performance, contributing to the company’s competitive advantage.

Ambev S.A. Announces Share Buyback Program to Enhance Shareholder Value
Oct 30, 2025

On October 29, 2025, Ambev S.A.’s Board of Directors approved a share buyback program to repurchase up to 208 million common shares, with the primary aim of cancelation. This move is intended to optimize capital allocation and potentially enhance shareholder value. The program, set to run until April 29, 2027, will involve transactions through major financial brokers and reflects Ambev’s strategic financial management. The impact on the company’s operations and market positioning could be significant, as it may influence share value and investor confidence.

Ambev S.A. Reports September 2025 Share Transactions
Oct 7, 2025

In September 2025, Ambev S.A. reported transactions involving the delivery of restricted shares, with a total of 146,923 shares delivered at a price of R$12.30 each, amounting to a volume of R$1,807,152.90. This transaction reflects Ambev’s ongoing management of its outstanding shares in treasury, impacting its financial operations and potentially influencing shareholder value.

Ambev S.A. Reports September 2025 Securities Transactions
Oct 7, 2025

In September 2025, Ambev S.A. reported transactions involving its securities and derivatives, as per CVM Instruction # 358/2002. The transactions were conducted by management and related persons, with notable activities including the sale of 5,000 shares at R$12.50 each through Corretora Itaú. These transactions reflect the company’s ongoing compliance with regulatory requirements and provide insights into the trading activities of its management, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market dynamics.

Ambev S.A. Reports August 2025 Securities Transactions
Sep 9, 2025

From August 1st to 31st, 2025, Ambev S.A. reported its transactions involving securities and derivatives, as required by CVM Instruction # 358/2002. The report highlighted that there were no acquisitions or changes in positions by the Board of Directors, Management, or Fiscal Council during this period. This transparency in reporting reflects Ambev’s commitment to regulatory compliance and provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial activities.

Ambev S.A. Reports August Share Transactions
Sep 9, 2025

In August 2025, Ambev S.A. reported transactions involving the delivery of restricted shares, amounting to 24,117 shares at a price of R$12.29 each. This transaction reflects Ambev’s ongoing management of its outstanding shares, with a final balance of 169,352,327 shares. Such activities are part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder value.

Ambev S.A. Announces Executive Leadership Changes
Aug 19, 2025

On August 13 and 14, 2025, Ambev S.A.’s Board of Directors convened to confirm the election of Mr. Guilherme Malik Parente as the Legal and Compliance Vice President Officer, effective September 1, 2025. This appointment is part of a broader reorganization of the company’s executive team, with all officers serving until December 31, 2027. The changes reflect Ambev’s strategic focus on strengthening its leadership and enhancing compliance and governance structures.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 18, 2025