Constellation Brands (STZ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $27.37B
• Dividend Yield: 2.92%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.26M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: -5.57%
• EPS Growth: 119.49%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,600
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): 3.06
• Shares Outstanding: 173,384,630
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,894,273
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,256,086
• PEG Ratio: 3.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.12
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.38
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.75
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.28
• 1Y Price Target: $166.73
• Price Target Upside: 5.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 12.38
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $9.10B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $178.00 ▲(12.76% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/13/26

Score is driven by solid financial quality (strong margins and cash generation) and supportive technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). The rating is held back by inconsistent earnings/leverage across periods, near-term volume and margin pressures highlighted on the earnings call, and a relatively high P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong margins & cash generation

Sustained high gross and healthy net margins alongside multi-billion operating and free cash flow provide durable internal funding for distribution, brand investment, dividends and buybacks. This cash generation improves resilience through cycles and supports strategic reinvestment and deleveraging over the medium term.

Market-leading brands & distribution footprint

A portfolio that includes Modelo, Corona and scaling Pacifico plus broad distribution gains create structural competitive advantages: national shelf presence and on-premise gains support pricing, promotion efficiency, and faster SKU rollouts, underpinning steady revenue and share gains over many quarters.

Experienced CEO succession

A planned, board-led CEO transition to an experienced CPG leader signals governance continuity and operational expertise. Fink's prior CEO experience and board familiarity reduce execution risk during strategic initiatives (capacity builds, cost programs, portfolio shifts) and supports medium-term strategy execution.

Negative Factors

Persistent volume weakness

Ongoing negative depletions point to structurally weaker consumption or channel trends in beer categories. Persistent volume declines constrain top-line growth, increase reliance on pricing to drive revenue, and make long-term margin and capacity planning more uncertain if core consumer cohorts remain subdued.

Structural margin & cost pressures

Rising input costs and a secular mix shift to aluminum create sustained cost headwinds while tariff timing and depreciation reversals amplify volatility. Coupled with committed brewery capex, these forces can compress operating margins and limit near-term margin recovery unless offset by sustained pricing or productivity gains.

Revenue and earnings volatility; capital structure swings

While TTM leverage looks conservative, historical swings to much higher leverage and intermittent net losses indicate earnings and capital structure can vary materially across cycles. Combined with FCF that is only about half of net income at times, this reduces predictability of cash available for growth and shareholder returns.

Constellation Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It provides beer primarily under the Corona Extra, Corona Premier, Corona Familiar, Corona Light, Corona Refresca, Corona Hard Seltzer, Modelo Especial, Modelo Negra, Modelo Chelada, Pacifico, and Victoria brands. The company offers wine under the 7 Moons, Cook's California Champagne, Cooper & Thief, Crafters Union, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, The Dreaming Tree, Charles Smith, The Prisoner Wine Company, Robert Mondavi, My Favorite Neighbor, and Schrader; and spirits under the Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson's Green Brier, and SVEDKA brands. It provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise locations, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Victor, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Constellation Brands generates revenue primarily through the sale of its alcoholic beverages across various segments, including beer, wine, and spirits. The company's most significant revenue stream comes from its beer segment, which includes popular brands like Corona and Modelo, contributing a substantial percentage of total sales. Additionally, Constellation earns revenue from its wine and spirits division, which features brands like Robert Mondavi and Svedka Vodka. The company benefits from strategic partnerships, notably with Grupo Modelo for beer distribution in the U.S., enhancing its market presence and distribution capabilities. Furthermore, Constellation is increasingly investing in the cannabis sector, exploring opportunities in this emerging market, which could provide additional revenue streams in the future.

Constellation Brands Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong underlying profitability and cash generation (TTM gross margin ~52%, net margin ~12%, operating cash flow ~$2.7B, free cash flow ~$1.76B). Offsets include slightly declining revenue (~-2.5%), modestly lower FCF (~-4.6%), weaker cash conversion (FCF about half of net income), and volatility in reported profitability/leverage across annual periods (including loss years), which reduces confidence in trend stability.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) profitability is solid with strong gross margin (~52%) and a healthy net margin (~12%), but revenue is slightly down (about -2.5%). Results have also been volatile across the annual periods, with some years showing net losses (2022–2023 and 2025 annual) versus strong profitability in 2021 and 2024, which lowers confidence in earnings stability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with low debt relative to equity (~0.05) and solid return on equity (~16.6%). However, annual filings show meaningfully higher leverage in recent years (debt-to-equity roughly ~0.9–1.8) and even negative return on equity in loss years, suggesting the capital structure and reported profitability can swing materially depending on the period.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently positive: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is strong (~$2.7B) and free cash flow is sizable (~$1.76B). That said, TTM free cash flow is down modestly (about -4.6%), and free cash flow is only about half of net income in TTM, indicating conversion from accounting earnings to cash is good but not consistently strong across periods.

Breakdown	TTM	Feb 2025	Feb 2024	Feb 2023	Feb 2022	Feb 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.38B	10.21B	9.96B	9.45B	8.82B	8.61B
Gross Profit	4.88B	5.20B	4.91B	4.81B	4.60B	4.47B
EBITDA	2.47B	782.60M	3.08B	1.17B	1.00B	3.22B
Net Income	1.11B	-81.40M	1.73B	-71.00M	-40.40M	2.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	21.68B	21.65B	25.69B	24.66B	25.86B	27.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	152.40M	68.10M	152.40M	133.50M	199.40M	460.60M
Total Debt	10.66B	12.11B	12.56B	12.96B	10.95B	10.98B
Total Liabilities	13.68B	14.52B	15.63B	15.93B	13.81B	13.18B
Stockholders Equity	7.71B	6.88B	9.74B	8.41B	11.73B	13.60B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.76B	1.94B	1.51B	1.72B	1.68B	1.94B
Operating Cash Flow	2.70B	3.15B	2.78B	2.76B	2.71B	2.81B
Investing Cash Flow	353.50M	-974.80M	-1.29B	-999.40M	-1.04B	-87.90M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.98B	-2.26B	-1.47B	-1.82B	-1.93B	-2.35B

Constellation Brands Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 157.86
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 157.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 159.10, above the 50-day MA of 152.14, and above the 200-day MA of 152.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STZ.

Constellation Brands Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABEV	80 Outperform	$49.97B	17.78	17.42%	8.22%	-0.68%	4.29%
BF.B	69 Neutral	$13.45B	16.85	20.67%	3.42%	-4.59%	-19.19%
SAM	68 Neutral	$2.37B	23.27	12.31%	―	-1.13%	24.34%
STZ	67 Neutral	$27.37B	24.89	14.29%	2.92%	-5.57%	119.49%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DEO	60 Neutral	$49.71B	20.64	22.03%	4.80%	0.22%	-38.76%
TAP	54 Neutral	$9.71B	―	-18.35%	4.08%	-4.01%	-339.22%

Constellation Brands Corporate Events

Constellation Brands Announces CEO Succession and Leadership Transition

On February 12, 2026, Constellation Brands announced a planned leadership transition in which board member Nicholas Fink will become president and chief executive officer on April 13, 2026, succeeding longtime executive Bill Newlands. Fink, currently CEO of Fortune Brands Innovations and a former senior leader at Suntory Global Spirits, will remain on Constellation’s board, while Newlands will retire from the board and move into a strategic advisor role through April 30, 2026, followed by a paid consulting arrangement through year-end to support the handover.

The board has formalized Fink’s appointment with an employment agreement that sets his compensation, equity incentives, and severance protections, reflecting the company’s effort to secure experienced leadership as it navigates a highly competitive beverage alcohol market. The succession plan underscores Constellation’s intent to build on Newlands’ tenure, during which the company became one of the top growth performers in large consumer packaged goods and elevated brands such as Modelo Especial to category leadership, signaling continuity in its premium, growth-focused strategy for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (STZ) stock is a Buy with a $185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Brands stock, see the STZ Stock Forecast page.

Constellation Brands Posts Q3 Declines, Maintains Dividend Payout

On January 7, 2026, Constellation Brands reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 results showing a 10% year-over-year decline in net sales to $2.22 billion and an 18% drop in net income attributable to the company to $503 million, as diluted EPS fell 15% to $2.88 on a reported basis and 6% to $3.06 on a comparable basis. The company’s beer business continued to outperform the wider U.S. beverage alcohol and beer categories in dollar and volume share despite a 1% net sales decline driven by lower shipment volumes; key brands like Modelo Especial and Corona Extra retained leading dollar sales positions, while Pacifico and Victoria delivered strong growth. In contrast, the wine and spirits segment saw net sales shrink 51% and operating income decline 65%, largely due to the SVEDKA and 2025 wine divestitures and related volume losses, which weighed on margins even as the remaining portfolio outpaced the higher-end wine segment in U.S. tracked channels. Constellation generated year-to-date operating cash flow of $2.1 billion and free cash flow of $1.45 billion, repurchased $824 million of shares year-to-date and $220 million in the quarter, and returned nearly $1.4 billion to shareholders over the first three quarters while maintaining its investment‑grade rating and leverage and payout targets. The board also declared on January 7, 2026 a quarterly cash dividend of $1.02 per Class A common share and $0.92 per Class 1 convertible common share, payable February 12, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 29, 2026, signaling continued capital returns even as management pursues cost savings, brewery expansion, and efficiency initiatives in what it describes as a challenging operating environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (STZ) stock is a Hold with a $147.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Brands stock, see the STZ Stock Forecast page.