Constellation Brands (STZ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $27.17B
• Dividend Yield: 2.92%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.50M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: -5.57%
• EPS Growth: 119.49%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,600
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): 3.06
• Shares Outstanding: 173,384,630
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,222,808
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,500,438
• PEG Ratio: 3.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.12
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.75
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.29
• 1Y Price Target: $165.88
• Price Target Upside: 5.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): 11.61
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $9.07B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $177.00 ▲(12.95% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid margins and cash generation but is held back by volatile reported profitability and slowing/declining volume trends. Technicals are moderately supportive (above key intermediate moving averages with positive MACD), while valuation is only fair given a 23.33 P/E despite a 2.75% dividend yield. The earnings call was balanced: guidance was maintained, but macro and cost headwinds and the need to revisit FY27+ margin outlook add risk.

Positive Factors

Cash generation strength

Sustained operating cash flow and sizeable FCF provide durable funding for dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment. Reliable cash generation underpins capital allocation flexibility, supports the investment-grade profile and cushions the business during cyclical volume softness.

High reported margins

Elevated gross and net margins reflect pricing power, premium portfolio mix and cost efficiencies. Margin strength supports profitability even with modest volume declines, enabling reinvestment in brands, capacity and marketing to sustain long-term competitive positioning.

Brand and distribution advantages

Broad U.S. distribution gains and strong brand momentum (e.g., Pacifico scaling) create structural shelf presence and trade support. Market-share expansion increases pricing leverage and route-to-market resilience, helping sustain revenue and premium positioning over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Persistent volume declines

Multi-quarter depletions decline signals secular or category weakness that erodes topline and scale economics. Sustained volume pressure can reduce operating leverage, limit pricing flexibility, and force higher marketing spend to recover consumer demand over the medium term.

Structural margin headwinds

A durable shift toward aluminum packaging plus higher tariffs increases COGS and compresses beer margins absent offsetting pricing or cost cuts. These persistent input-cost pressures can reduce margin sustainability and require enduring pricing architecture changes.

Volatile reported profitability and leverage

Material swings in leverage and episodic loss years indicate earnings and capital-structure sensitivity to timing, divestitures and nonrecurring items. This volatility undermines predictability of cash returns and raises execution risk for multi-year margin and capacity targets.

Constellation Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It provides beer primarily under the Corona Extra, Corona Premier, Corona Familiar, Corona Light, Corona Refresca, Corona Hard Seltzer, Modelo Especial, Modelo Negra, Modelo Chelada, Pacifico, and Victoria brands. The company offers wine under the 7 Moons, Cook's California Champagne, Cooper & Thief, Crafters Union, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, The Dreaming Tree, Charles Smith, The Prisoner Wine Company, Robert Mondavi, My Favorite Neighbor, and Schrader; and spirits under the Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson's Green Brier, and SVEDKA brands. It provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise locations, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Victor, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Constellation Brands generates revenue primarily through the sale of its alcoholic beverages across various segments, including beer, wine, and spirits. The company's most significant revenue stream comes from its beer segment, which includes popular brands like Corona and Modelo, contributing a substantial percentage of total sales. Additionally, Constellation earns revenue from its wine and spirits division, which features brands like Robert Mondavi and Svedka Vodka. The company benefits from strategic partnerships, notably with Grupo Modelo for beer distribution in the U.S., enhancing its market presence and distribution capabilities. Furthermore, Constellation is increasingly investing in the cannabis sector, exploring opportunities in this emerging market, which could provide additional revenue streams in the future.

Constellation Brands Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong underlying margins and solid cash generation (TTM operating cash flow ~$2.7B; free cash flow ~$1.76B) support the profile, but revenue is slightly down (~-2.5%), free cash flow is modestly lower (~-4.6%), and results show notable volatility across annual periods (including loss years), reducing confidence in trend consistency.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) profitability is solid with strong gross margin (~52%) and a healthy net margin (~12%), but revenue is slightly down (about -2.5%). Results have also been volatile across the annual periods, with some years showing net losses (2022–2023 and 2025 annual) versus strong profitability in 2021 and 2024, which lowers confidence in earnings stability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with low debt relative to equity (~0.05) and solid return on equity (~16.6%). However, annual filings show meaningfully higher leverage in recent years (debt-to-equity roughly ~0.9–1.8) and even negative return on equity in loss years, suggesting the capital structure and reported profitability can swing materially depending on the period.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently positive: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is strong (~$2.7B) and free cash flow is sizable (~$1.76B). That said, TTM free cash flow is down modestly (about -4.6%), and free cash flow is only about half of net income in TTM, indicating conversion from accounting earnings to cash is good but not consistently strong across periods.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.21B	9.96B	9.45B	8.82B	8.61B
Gross Profit	5.20B	4.91B	4.81B	4.60B	4.47B
EBITDA	782.60M	3.08B	1.17B	1.00B	3.22B
Net Income	-81.40M	1.73B	-71.00M	-40.40M	2.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	21.65B	25.69B	24.66B	25.86B	27.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	68.10M	152.40M	133.50M	199.40M	460.60M
Total Debt	12.11B	12.56B	12.96B	10.95B	10.98B
Total Liabilities	14.52B	15.63B	15.93B	13.81B	13.18B
Stockholders Equity	6.88B	9.74B	8.41B	11.73B	13.60B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.94B	1.51B	1.72B	1.68B	1.94B
Operating Cash Flow	3.15B	2.78B	2.76B	2.71B	2.81B
Investing Cash Flow	-974.80M	-1.29B	-999.40M	-1.04B	-87.90M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.26B	-1.47B	-1.82B	-1.93B	-2.35B

Constellation Brands Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 156.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 156.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 153.01, above the 50-day MA of 143.86, and above the 200-day MA of 154.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STZ.

Constellation Brands Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABEV	80 Outperform	$44.48B	15.44	15.97%	8.22%	-0.68%	4.29%
SAM	68 Neutral	$2.28B	25.18	9.58%	―	-1.13%	24.34%
STZ	66 Neutral	$27.17B	24.71	14.29%	2.92%	-5.57%	119.49%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
BF.B	62 Neutral	$12.76B	15.98	20.67%	3.42%	-4.59%	-19.19%
DEO	60 Neutral	$51.02B	21.80	22.33%	4.80%	0.22%	-38.76%
TAP	53 Neutral	$9.51B	-4.50	-17.66%	4.08%	-4.01%	-339.22%

Constellation Brands Corporate Events

Constellation Brands Posts Q3 Declines, Maintains Dividend Payout

On January 7, 2026, Constellation Brands reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 results showing a 10% year-over-year decline in net sales to $2.22 billion and an 18% drop in net income attributable to the company to $503 million, as diluted EPS fell 15% to $2.88 on a reported basis and 6% to $3.06 on a comparable basis. The company’s beer business continued to outperform the wider U.S. beverage alcohol and beer categories in dollar and volume share despite a 1% net sales decline driven by lower shipment volumes; key brands like Modelo Especial and Corona Extra retained leading dollar sales positions, while Pacifico and Victoria delivered strong growth. In contrast, the wine and spirits segment saw net sales shrink 51% and operating income decline 65%, largely due to the SVEDKA and 2025 wine divestitures and related volume losses, which weighed on margins even as the remaining portfolio outpaced the higher-end wine segment in U.S. tracked channels. Constellation generated year-to-date operating cash flow of $2.1 billion and free cash flow of $1.45 billion, repurchased $824 million of shares year-to-date and $220 million in the quarter, and returned nearly $1.4 billion to shareholders over the first three quarters while maintaining its investment‑grade rating and leverage and payout targets. The board also declared on January 7, 2026 a quarterly cash dividend of $1.02 per Class A common share and $0.92 per Class 1 convertible common share, payable February 12, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 29, 2026, signaling continued capital returns even as management pursues cost savings, brewery expansion, and efficiency initiatives in what it describes as a challenging operating environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (STZ) stock is a Hold with a $147.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Brands stock, see the STZ Stock Forecast page.

Constellation Brands Files Shelf Registration with SEC

On November 7, 2025, Constellation Brands filed an automatic shelf registration statement with the SEC to cover an unspecified amount of its Class A Common Stock and other securities. The company also filed a prospectus supplement for the resale of up to 21,274,829 shares of Class A Common Stock, although it will not receive proceeds from these sales, indicating a strategic move to facilitate stockholder transactions without impacting its own capital.

The most recent analyst rating on (STZ) stock is a Hold with a $147.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Constellation Brands stock, see the STZ Stock Forecast page.