Constellation Brands (STZ)
NYSE:STZ
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Constellation Brands
(NYSE:STZ)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$178.00
▲(17.45% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/13/26
Score is driven by solid financial quality (strong margins and cash generation) and supportive technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). The rating is held back by inconsistent earnings/leverage across periods, near-term volume and margin pressures highlighted on the earnings call, and a relatively high P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong margins & cash generation
Sustained high gross and healthy net margins alongside multi-billion operating and free cash flow provide durable internal funding for distribution, brand investment, dividends and buybacks. This cash generation improves resilience through cycles and supports strategic reinvestment and deleveraging over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Persistent volume weakness
Ongoing negative depletions point to structurally weaker consumption or channel trends in beer categories. Persistent volume declines constrain top-line growth, increase reliance on pricing to drive revenue, and make long-term margin and capacity planning more uncertain if core consumer cohorts remain subdued.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong margins & cash generation
Sustained high gross and healthy net margins alongside multi-billion operating and free cash flow provide durable internal funding for distribution, brand investment, dividends and buybacks. This cash generation improves resilience through cycles and supports strategic reinvestment and deleveraging over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Constellation Brands (STZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$26.28B
Dividend Yield2.92%
Average Volume (3M)1.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.0
Beta (1Y)0.46
Revenue Growth-5.57%
EPS Growth119.49%
CountryUS
Employees10,600
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.06
Shares Outstanding173,384,630
10 Day Avg. Volume1,865,425
30 Day Avg. Volume1,993,494
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.73
Price to Book (P/B)4.63
Price to Sales (P/S)3.12
P/FCF Ratio16.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.84
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$169.77Price Target Upside12.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)12.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.11B
Constellation Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It provides beer primarily under the Corona Extra, Corona Premi...
How the Company Makes Money
Constellation Brands generates revenue primarily through the sale of its alcoholic beverages across various segments, including beer, wine, and spirits. The company's most significant revenue stream comes from its beer segment, which includes popu...
Constellation Brands Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Beer Case Shipments
Monitors the volume of beer cases shipped, indicating market demand, distribution efficiency, and brand strength in the beer segment.
Monitors the volume of beer cases shipped, indicating market demand, distribution efficiency, and brand strength in the beer segment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyConstellation Brands Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 07, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: clear brand and distribution successes (strong Q3 margins, Pacifico progress, mid-single-digit distribution gains, pricing execution and depletions that ran ahead of some expectations) offset by persistent volume pressure, macro-driven weakness among Hispanic consumers, tariff and aluminum cost headwinds, and near-term Q4 margin pressures (seasonality, depreciation timing and timing of tariff expense). Management is controlling the controllables and progressing on capacity and cost savings, but significant macro uncertainty and committed CapEx/long-lead equipment leave downside risks that will be re-evaluated in April.Positive Updates
Q3 Beer Operating Margins Beat Expectations
Q3 beer operating margins came in stronger than expected due to cost-savings initiatives, favorable pricing actions (spring and fall), and a depreciation timing benefit in Q3 that was favorable year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Volume and Category Pressure
Volumes remain pressured: full-year depletions down ~2.5%–3% and the beer category is described as challenged, driven largely by weakness among Hispanic consumers.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q3 Beer Operating Margins Beat Expectations
Q3 beer operating margins came in stronger than expected due to cost-savings initiatives, favorable pricing actions (spring and fall), and a depreciation timing benefit in Q3 that was favorable year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Constellation said it is maintaining its full‑year FY26 guidance and reiterated several quantifiable expectations: Q4 is the company’s seasonally smallest quarter (~20% of annual volume) and management expects billings/shipments and depletions to be largely aligned across the second half, with depletions running roughly down 2.5–3% year‑to‑date and off‑premise depletions −2.9% in Q3 (December was in line with expectations). Beer pricing guidance remains 1–2% (1.5% realized in Q3), distribution grew mid‑single digits in the quarter, and capacity plans call for ~7 million additional hectoliters through FY28 (near‑term CapEx commitments tied to Veracruz and long‑lead brewery equipment remain in place). On margins, the company reminded investors of the prior April target of 39–40% beer operating margins for FY27–28 but said macro conditions have weakened and it will provide updated FY27 guidance in April; near‑term Q4 margin headwinds include the reversal of a Q3 depreciation timing benefit, higher tariffs (notably aluminum) and a continued shift to aluminum packaging, plus some timing‑related expense phasing.Constellation Brands Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
73
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Feb 2023 | Feb 2022 | Feb 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.38B | 10.21B | 9.96B | 9.45B | 8.82B | 8.61B |
| Gross Profit | 4.88B | 5.20B | 4.91B | 4.81B | 4.60B | 4.47B |
| EBITDA | 2.47B | 782.60M | 3.08B | 1.17B | 1.00B | 3.22B |
| Net Income | 1.11B | -81.40M | 1.73B | -71.00M | -40.40M | 2.00B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.68B | 21.65B | 25.69B | 24.66B | 25.86B | 27.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 152.40M | 68.10M | 152.40M | 133.50M | 199.40M | 460.60M |
| Total Debt | 10.66B | 12.11B | 12.56B | 12.96B | 10.95B | 10.98B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.68B | 14.52B | 15.63B | 15.93B | 13.81B | 13.18B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.71B | 6.88B | 9.74B | 8.41B | 11.73B | 13.60B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.76B | 1.94B | 1.51B | 1.72B | 1.68B | 1.94B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.70B | 3.15B | 2.78B | 2.76B | 2.71B | 2.81B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 353.50M | -974.80M | -1.29B | -999.40M | -1.04B | -87.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.98B | -2.26B | -1.47B | -1.82B | -1.93B | -2.35B |
Constellation Brands Technical Analysis
Neutral
151.56
Price Trends
155.91
Negative
146.12
Positive
149.69
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.90
Negative
47.84
Neutral
57.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STZ, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 151.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 151.58, below the 50-day MA of 155.91, and above the 200-day MA of 149.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.90 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for STZ.
Constellation Brands Risk Analysis
Constellation Brands disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Constellation Brands reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Constellation Brands Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $45.15B | 13.63 | 16.90% | 8.22% | -0.68% | 4.29% | |
70 Outperform | $2.34B | 19.30 | 12.16% | ― | -1.13% | 24.34% | |
67 Neutral | $26.28B | 11.96 | 15.12% | 2.92% | -5.57% | 119.49% | |
63 Neutral | $10.84B | 12.09 | 19.93% | 3.42% | -4.59% | -19.19% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $40.91B | 6.03 | 19.40% | 4.80% | 0.22% | -38.76% | |
49 Neutral | $8.21B | -4.26 | -18.18% | 4.08% | -4.01% | -339.22% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
STZ
Constellation Brands
151.56
-28.09
-15.63%
SAM
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224.27
-16.12
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DEO
Diageo
74.05
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41.27
-17.35
-29.59%
BF.B
Brown-Forman B
23.49
-9.88
-29.62%
ABEV
Ambev SA
2.85
0.70
32.62%
Constellation Brands Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Constellation Brands Announces CEO Succession and Leadership Transition
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, Constellation Brands announced a planned leadership transition in which board member Nicholas Fink will become president and chief executive officer on April 13, 2026, succeeding longtime executive Bill Newlands. Fink, curren...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Constellation Brands Posts Q3 Declines, Maintains Dividend Payout
Negative
Jan 7, 2026
On January 7, 2026, Constellation Brands reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 results showing a 10% year-over-year decline in net sales to $2.22 billion and an 18% drop in net income attributable to the company to $503 million, as diluted EPS fell 1...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.