Constellation Brands (STZ)
NYSE:STZ
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Constellation Brands
(NYSE:STZ)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$156.00
▼(-3.87% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/22/26
The score is held back primarily by uneven financial performance and uncertainty in the latest cash flow/debt data, plus a relatively expensive P/E. Offsetting factors include solid historical cash generation (through 2025), generally stable/neutral technicals, and an earnings outlook that shows strong beer momentum but tempered near-term by lower margin guidance and continued Wine & Spirits weakness.
Positive Factors
Beer market leadership & scale
Multi-year scale expansion to >400M cases underpins durable advantages: stronger retail/distributor leverage, broader national distribution, and greater pricing/packaging optionality. Size supports fixed-cost absorption and marketing ROI, sustaining competitive positioning over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Volatile profitability and uneven revenue
Inconsistent top-line and bottom-line performance complicates forecasting and undermines confidence in margin recovery. Cyclical swings and intermittent losses limit ability to sustainably invest behind growth and increase sensitivity to demand shifts across the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Beer market leadership & scale
Multi-year scale expansion to >400M cases underpins durable advantages: stronger retail/distributor leverage, broader national distribution, and greater pricing/packaging optionality. Size supports fixed-cost absorption and marketing ROI, sustaining competitive positioning over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Constellation Brands Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Beer Case Shipments
Monitors the volume of beer cases shipped, indicating market demand, distribution efficiency, and brand strength in the beer segment.
Monitors the volume of beer cases shipped, indicating market demand, distribution efficiency, and brand strength in the beer segment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyConstellation Brands (STZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.47B
Dividend Yield2.92%
Average Volume (3M)1.86M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.3
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth-10.48%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees10,600
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.59
Shares Outstanding172,172,550
10 Day Avg. Volume2,113,577
30 Day Avg. Volume1,858,886
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)3.43
Price to Sales (P/S)3.03
P/FCF Ratio15.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.45
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$177.61Price Target Upside9.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)11.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.11B
Constellation Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It provides beer primarily under the Corona Extra, Corona Premi...
How the Company Makes Money
Constellation Brands makes money by selling beverage alcohol products—primarily beer, plus wine and spirits—into the U.S. market through a mix of wholesale/distributor networks and retail/on-premise relationships, generating revenue when its produ...
Constellation Brands Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 08, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear operational and brand-level progress—notably strong beer momentum, market leadership for Modelo, meaningful brand expansion (Pacifico, Victoria, Sunbrew), disciplined capital returns (> $900M returned) and robust hedges—against notable near-term headwinds: lower margin guidance (beer), fixed-cost absorption from the Veracruz brewery, wine & spirits category weakness and distributor inventory rebalancing. Management emphasized disciplined cost savings, targeted marketing investments (especially in H1/World Cup), and confidence in medium-term targets (wine & spirits margins toward low-20s over the medium term), but acknowledged limited visibility and cyclicality that could delay margin recovery.Positive Updates
Strong Beer Momentum and Market Leadership
Sequential gains in the quarter with depletions up (first quarter with depletions up after three quarters of weakness); Modelo Especial maintained leadership as the #1 beer brand by dollars in the U.S.; management highlighted improved March momentum and exiting the year in a strong position.
Negative Updates
Limited Visibility and Consumer Caution
Management repeatedly cited high volatility and limited visibility on consumer behavior; stated consumers remain cautious and selectively shop, creating uncertainty for FY27 volumes and pacing.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Beer Momentum and Market Leadership
Sequential gains in the quarter with depletions up (first quarter with depletions up after three quarters of weakness); Modelo Especial maintained leadership as the #1 beer brand by dollars in the U.S.; management highlighted improved March momentum and exiting the year in a strong position.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Constellation guided to beer operating margins of 37–38% for FY‑27 (down from prior 39–40%), with price delivery of about 1–2% (at the lower end this year) and marketing at ~9.5% of sales (front‑loaded in 1H for the World Cup); they expect Veracruz brewery production mid‑year (causing fixed‑cost absorption headwinds and a step‑up in depreciation), continued cost‑savings offset and aluminum‑tariff relief this year, and remain ~80% hedged on currencies (including the peso) with ~100% fuel, ~90% aluminum, ~80% natural gas and ~75% corn hedges; wine & spirits face channel and category pressure (U.S. high‑end wine now expected to be down low single digits vs prior low‑single‑digit growth, and high‑end spirits decelerating from mid‑single‑digit growth to flat/slightly down) but management still targets wine & spirits margins in the low‑20s over the medium term, has agreed distributor inventory rebalancing, returned >$900M to shareholders last year, and noted recent momentum in beer (Modelo +0.6 share pts in Q4 and >1 share pt in the most recent 4 weeks; portfolio grew from ~280M to >400M cases historically), while mix was a ~50 bp drag to beer topline in the last quarter.Constellation Brands Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Feb 2026 | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Feb 2023 | Feb 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 9.14B | 10.21B | 9.96B | 9.45B | 8.82B |
| Gross Profit | 4.71B | 5.20B | 4.91B | 4.81B | 4.60B |
| EBITDA | 3.28B | 782.60M | 3.08B | 1.17B | 1.00B |
| Net Income | 1.69B | -81.40M | 1.73B | -71.00M | -40.40M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 21.90B | 21.65B | 25.69B | 24.66B | 25.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 102.40M | 68.10M | 152.40M | 133.50M | 199.40M |
| Total Debt | 11.20B | 12.11B | 12.56B | 12.96B | 10.95B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.51B | 14.52B | 15.63B | 15.93B | 13.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.08B | 6.88B | 9.74B | 8.41B | 11.73B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.79B | 1.94B | 1.51B | 1.72B | 1.68B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.67B | 3.15B | 2.78B | 2.76B | 2.71B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 16.50M | -974.80M | -1.29B | -999.40M | -1.04B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.66B | -2.26B | -1.47B | -1.82B | -1.93B |
Constellation Brands Technical Analysis
Negative
162.28
Price Trends
151.53
Negative
152.89
Negative
145.82
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.49
Positive
35.44
Neutral
31.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 162.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 146.39, above the 50-day MA of 151.53, and above the 200-day MA of 145.82, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STZ.
Constellation Brands Risk Analysis
Constellation Brands disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Constellation Brands reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Constellation Brands Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $50.97B | 16.35 | 17.19% | 8.22% | -0.41% | 13.36% | |
73 Outperform | $12.03B | 15.18 | 19.93% | 3.42% | -2.61% | -17.78% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $47.33B | 18.91 | 21.39% | 4.80% | -1.84% | -33.01% | |
57 Neutral | $7.65B | -3.54 | -19.15% | 4.08% | -1.30% | -312.85% | |
56 Neutral | $24.47B | 14.28 | 22.08% | 2.92% | -10.48% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $1.91B | ― | -7.30% | ― | -4.69% | -204.08% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
STZ
Constellation Brands
138.82
-34.76
-20.02%
SAM
Boston Beer
177.28
-52.57
-22.87%
DEO
Diageo
82.46
-22.81
-21.67%
TAP
Molson Coors
39.53
-11.39
-22.37%
BF.B
Brown-Forman B
25.72
-6.54
-20.28%
ABEV
Ambev SA
3.21
0.92
40.05%
Constellation Brands Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Constellation Brands Adds Marketing Leader to Board
Positive
May 21, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Constellation Brands expanded its Board of Directors from 11 to 12 members and elected E. Morgan Flatley, Executive Vice President and Global Chief Marketing Officer at McDonald’s, as an independent director effective immedi...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Brands Announces Redemption and New Senior Notes
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Constellation Brands, Inc. announced it has delivered notice for the full redemption prior to maturity of all its outstanding 3.700% Senior Notes due 2026, totaling $600 million in principal, with the redemption to be effected on M...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Brands Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 5, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Constellation Brands entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate of major investment banks to issue $500 million of 4.850% senior notes due 2031, priced at 99.943% of par, with closing expected on May 6, 2026 subject to...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Brands Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Constellation Brands, Inc. announced it had priced a public offering of $500 million of 4.850% Senior Notes due 2031 at 99.943% of par, with the notes ranking equally with its other senior unsecured debt. BofA Securities, Goldman S...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Constellation Brands Reports Fiscal 2026 Results, Raises Dividend
Positive
Apr 8, 2026
On April 8, 2026, Constellation Brands reported its fiscal 2026 results and declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.03 per share for Class A Common Stock and $0.93 per share for Class 1 Convertible Common Stock, payable May 14, 2026 to shareholde...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.