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Constellation Brands
(NYSE:STZ)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$150.00
▼(-7.57% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/02/26
STZ’s score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong profitability and cash generation) and supportive valuation (mid-teens P/E with a ~3% dividend). These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (trading below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a guarded earnings-call outlook that includes expected near-term margin pressure and macro/brand headwinds.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent, large-scale cash generation provides durable financial flexibility: strong operating and free cash flow funded >$400M of buybacks/dividends in the quarter, supports continued capital allocation, funds marketing/capex during rebuilds, and cushions the business through demand cycles.
Negative Factors
Weak recent revenue trends
Material negative top-line momentum is a durable concern: falling revenues signal volume and mix weaknesses that can erode operating leverage. If persistent, this pressures margins and cash conversion, forcing higher marketing spend or trade investment to defend share, reducing medium-term profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Consistent, large-scale cash generation provides durable financial flexibility: strong operating and free cash flow funded >$400M of buybacks/dividends in the quarter, supports continued capital allocation, funds marketing/capex during rebuilds, and cushions the business through demand cycles.
Read all positive factors
Constellation Brands Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Beer Case Shipments
Monitors the volume of beer cases shipped, indicating market demand, distribution efficiency, and brand strength in the beer segment.
Monitors the volume of beer cases shipped, indicating market demand, distribution efficiency, and brand strength in the beer segment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyConstellation Brands (STZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.62B
Dividend Yield2.92%
Average Volume (3M)2.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.8
Beta (1Y)0.38
Revenue Growth-9.99%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees10,600
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.49
Shares Outstanding170,752,520
10 Day Avg. Volume2,791,691
30 Day Avg. Volume2,441,314
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)3.43
Price to Sales (P/S)3.03
P/FCF Ratio15.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.54
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$171.78Price Target Upside5.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)11.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.10B
Constellation Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. The company offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar...
How the Company Makes Money
Constellation Brands makes money primarily by selling beverage alcohol to wholesalers, retailers, and on-premise accounts, generating revenue from product shipments and related brand/marketing programs. The company’s largest earnings driver is its...
Constellation Brands Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 30, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced view: management emphasized the underlying strength of the brand portfolio, early signs of demand reacceleration (notably June and World Cup-related occasions), margin benefits from fixed-cost absorption and cost savings, and strategic moves such as senior sales hiring and targeted innovation (Corona non-alc, RTD/Chelada). Offsetting this optimism were material near-term headwinds — volatile consumer spending driven by a sharp gas-price shock, continued softness in core brands (Modelo Especial and Corona Extra), sub-2% volume growth, expected SG&A and marketing-driven margin pressure in Q2/Q3, currency headwinds and regional/Hispanic consumer weakness. Given the mix of encouraging portfolio and margin elements versus meaningful macro and brand-specific challenges, the tone is cautiously constructive but guarded.Positive Updates
Portfolio Strength and Management Confidence
New CEO highlighted enduring strength of core brands (Modelo, Corona, Pacifico, Kim Crawford, Mi CAMPO) and confidence in the company's ability to create demand and scale brands through consumer insights, commercial execution and disciplined investment.
Negative Updates
Volatile Consumer Backdrop and Fuel Shock
Quarter saw volatility — strong March then softer April/May as a massive spike in gas prices pressured consumer behavior. Gas prices rose over ~50% on average in the U.S. peak-to-trough (California ~40%, Illinois ~70%, New York/Florida/Texas >50%), which management ties to softened demand.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Portfolio Strength and Management Confidence
New CEO highlighted enduring strength of core brands (Modelo, Corona, Pacifico, Kim Crawford, Mi CAMPO) and confidence in the company's ability to create demand and scale brands through consumer insights, commercial execution and disciplined investment.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management maintained FY‑27 beer net‑sales guidance while noting Q1 shipment growth of ~1.8% and a beer gross margin of 39%; Q1 benefited roughly +30 bps from fixed‑overabsorption, ~+20 bps from pricing net of mix and cost‑savings, offset by ~‑30 bps of currency/other COGS, yielding ~+20 bps gross‑margin expansion but a ~‑10 bps decline in operating margin (including ~+20 bps SG&A from Veracruz hires and ~‑10 bps from incremental marketing). Looking ahead, they still expect gross margins to be strong in Q2 and Q3 but anticipate incremental operating‑margin headwinds as marketing is increased (marketing spend expected to exceed 10% of net sales in both Q2 and Q3) and SG&A steps up; shipments and depletions should align by year‑end after Q1’s seasonal ahead‑shipping, and management cited macro volatility (e.g., prior gas spikes of ~40–70% in key states) and limited visibility as reasons for caution.Constellation Brands Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Feb 2026 | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Feb 2023 | Feb 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.06B | 9.14B | 10.21B | 9.96B | 9.45B | 8.82B |
| Gross Profit | 4.77B | 4.71B | 5.20B | 4.91B | 4.81B | 4.60B |
| EBITDA | 3.31B | 3.15B | 782.60M | 3.08B | 1.17B | 1.00B |
| Net Income | 1.82B | 1.69B | -81.40M | 1.73B | -71.00M | -40.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 22.11B | 21.90B | 21.65B | 25.69B | 24.66B | 25.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 96.60M | 102.40M | 68.10M | 152.40M | 133.50M | 199.40M |
| Total Debt | 10.53B | 11.20B | 12.11B | 12.56B | 12.96B | 10.95B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.56B | 13.51B | 14.52B | 15.63B | 15.93B | 13.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.26B | 8.08B | 6.88B | 9.74B | 8.41B | 11.73B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.83B | 1.79B | 1.94B | 1.51B | 1.72B | 1.68B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.69B | 2.67B | 3.15B | 2.78B | 2.76B | 2.71B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 19.40M | 16.50M | -974.80M | -1.29B | -999.40M | -1.04B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.69B | -2.66B | -2.26B | -1.47B | -1.82B | -1.93B |
Constellation Brands Technical Analysis
Negative
162.28
Price Trends
142.80
Negative
148.28
Negative
144.51
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.13
Positive
41.13
Neutral
19.57
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 162.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 139.75, above the 50-day MA of 142.80, and above the 200-day MA of 144.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STZ.
Constellation Brands Risk Analysis
Constellation Brands disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Constellation Brands reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Constellation Brands Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $48.47B | 16.00 | 17.19% | 8.22% | -0.41% | 13.36% | |
69 Neutral | $11.65B | 17.25 | 17.63% | 3.42% | -0.45% | -16.82% | |
66 Neutral | $22.62B | 12.83 | 22.08% | 2.92% | -9.99% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $44.86B | 18.70 | 21.39% | 4.80% | -1.84% | -33.01% | |
57 Neutral | $7.32B | -3.70 | -19.15% | 4.08% | -1.30% | -312.85% | |
54 Neutral | $1.82B | -28.23 | -7.30% | ― | -4.69% | -204.08% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
STZ
Constellation Brands
134.06
-33.58
-20.03%
SAM
Boston Beer
176.79
-18.19
-9.33%
DEO
Diageo
82.03
-17.96
-17.96%
TAP
Molson Coors
39.17
-8.77
-18.30%
BF.B
Brown-Forman B
26.17
-1.88
-6.72%
ABEV
Ambev SA
3.07
0.84
37.61%
Constellation Brands Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Constellation Brands Reports Solid Fiscal 2027 Q1 Results
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Constellation Brands reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 results showing net sales of $2.43 billion, up 3% on a comparable organic basis, and operating income growth, driving reported EPS of $3.79 and comparable EPS of $3.43. The ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Constellation Brands Adds Marketing Leader to Board
Positive
May 21, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Constellation Brands expanded its Board of Directors from 11 to 12 members and elected E. Morgan Flatley, Executive Vice President and Global Chief Marketing Officer at McDonald’s, as an independent director effective immedi...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Brands Announces Redemption and New Senior Notes
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Constellation Brands, Inc. announced it has delivered notice for the full redemption prior to maturity of all its outstanding 3.700% Senior Notes due 2026, totaling $600 million in principal, with the redemption to be effected on M...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Brands Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 5, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Constellation Brands entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate of major investment banks to issue $500 million of 4.850% senior notes due 2031, priced at 99.943% of par, with closing expected on May 6, 2026 subject to...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Constellation Brands Announces $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Constellation Brands, Inc. announced it had priced a public offering of $500 million of 4.850% Senior Notes due 2031 at 99.943% of par, with the notes ranking equally with its other senior unsecured debt. BofA Securities, Goldman S...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Constellation Brands Reports Fiscal 2026 Results, Raises Dividend
Positive
Apr 8, 2026
On April 8, 2026, Constellation Brands reported its fiscal 2026 results and declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.03 per share for Class A Common Stock and $0.93 per share for Class 1 Convertible Common Stock, payable May 14, 2026 to shareholde...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.