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Diageo Plc (DEO)
NYSE:DEO

Diageo (DEO) AI Stock Analysis

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DEO

Diageo

(NYSE:DEO)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$96.00
▼(-2.01% Downside)
Diageo's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance and valuation. While the company shows strong revenue growth, challenges in profitability and leverage are significant concerns. The technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, which could impact short-term performance. The valuation is fair, with an attractive dividend yield, providing some support to the stock score.

Diageo (DEO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Diageo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDiageo plc is a global leader in beverage alcohol, headquartered in London, England. The company operates in the spirits and beer sectors, producing and distributing a wide range of iconic brands, including Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Smirnoff, and Baileys. Diageo's product portfolio encompasses various categories such as whiskey, vodka, rum, gin, and beer, and it serves consumers in over 180 countries worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyDiageo generates revenue primarily through the sale of its alcoholic beverages, which include spirits and beer. The company's revenue model is built on a combination of direct sales to retailers and distributors, as well as through e-commerce channels. Key revenue streams include premium and super-premium spirits, which command higher price points and profit margins. Additionally, Diageo benefits from a strong brand portfolio, which allows it to leverage brand loyalty and pricing power. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations, enhancing its distribution capabilities and market reach. Factors contributing to its earnings include global market trends towards premiumization, increasing consumer demand for innovative products, and effective marketing strategies that bolster brand visibility and consumer engagement.

Diageo Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of positive and negative elements. While the company showed a return to organic net sales growth, market share gains, and strong performance in key segments like Tequila and Guinness, it also faced challenges such as a decline in Scotch sales, operating profit, the impact of new tariffs, and a drop in EPS. The uncertainty around tariffs adds complexity to the business outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Organic Net Sales Growth
The company returned to organic net sales growth of 1% in the first half of fiscal '25, with growth in four out of five regions, including North America.
Market Share Gains
Held or gained market share in 65% of net sales in measured markets, with share gains in the U.S., most of Europe, and Greater China.
Tequila and Guinness Performance
Tequila organic net sales were up 21%, with Don Julio leading the growth. Guinness achieved its 8th consecutive half of double-digit growth, delivering 17% organic net sales growth.
Free Cash Flow Improvement
Free cash flow increased by $125 million to approximately $1.7 billion, driven by working capital management.
Negative Updates
Scotch Sales Decline
Scotch organic net sales declined by 5%, largely driven by softer industry performance in North America and Greater China.
Operating Profit Decline
Organic operating profit declined 1.2%, impacted by increased overheads, staff costs, and strategic investments.
Impact of Tariffs
25% tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. from Canada and Mexico create uncertainty, potentially impacting input costs for tequila and Canadian whiskey.
EPS Decline
Pre-exceptional EPS declined about 10%, primarily due to the performance of Moet Hennessy and unfavorable foreign exchange.
Company Guidance
In the first half of fiscal year 2025, Diageo reported a 1% growth in organic net sales, with significant contributions from the North American and Latin American regions. Market share was either held or increased in 65% of measured markets, notably in North America and Greater China. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment and recent tariff announcements, the company maintained a strong performance in various categories, including Tequila, which saw a 21% rise in organic net sales. Guinness continued its momentum with 17% growth, marking its eighth consecutive half of double-digit growth. However, Scotch faced a 5% decline due to softer industry performance. The company's strategic investments in digital and market routes are aimed at enhancing financial resilience and achieving sustainable long-term growth. Diageo's focus remains on driving stronger execution and leveraging its diverse portfolio to respond to emerging consumer trends across regions.

Diageo Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Diageo Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price97.97
Price Trends
50DMA
92.35
Negative
100DMA
97.03
Negative
200DMA
100.99
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.16
Negative
RSI
47.98
Neutral
STOCH
60.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DEO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 97.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 89.61, above the 50-day MA of 92.35, and below the 200-day MA of 100.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DEO.

Diageo Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$40.42B14.1715.97%6.62%-0.68%4.29%
75
Outperform
$127.78B17.938.97%1.79%-2.06%21.03%
74
Outperform
$14.02B17.7520.67%2.99%-4.59%-19.19%
70
Outperform
$14.02B17.5120.67%3.19%-4.59%-19.19%
67
Neutral
$24.82B20.8115.91%2.91%-5.57%119.49%
60
Neutral
$50.00B21.0022.33%4.56%0.22%-38.76%
* Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DEO
Diageo
89.80
-32.43
-26.53%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
65.28
15.92
32.25%
BF.A
Brown Forman A
28.54
-10.89
-27.62%
STZ
Constellation Brands
139.72
-81.71
-36.90%
BF.B
Brown-Forman B
28.84
-11.30
-28.15%
ABEV
Ambev SA
2.52
0.65
34.76%

Diageo Corporate Events

Diageo Announces November 2025 Corporate Shareholding Updates
Dec 1, 2025

In November 2025, Diageo plc made several announcements regarding its corporate activities. On November 3, the company reported its total voting rights and capital, noting that as of October 31, 2025, it had 2,432,425,480 ordinary shares issued, with 206,023,016 held in treasury. This left 2,226,402,464 voting rights available for shareholders. On November 10, Sir John Manzoni, the Chair, purchased shares under a company arrangement, and on the same day, transactions related to the Diageo 2001 Share Incentive Plan were disclosed, involving Nik Jhangiani, Interim CEO, and Ewan Andrew, a member of the Executive Committee. These transactions reflect ongoing corporate governance and shareholding adjustments within Diageo.

Diageo Appoints John Rishton to Board as Non-Executive Director
Sep 17, 2025

On September 16, 2025, Diageo announced the appointment of John Rishton as a Non-Executive Director, effective November 1, 2025. Rishton brings over 40 years of business experience, having held executive roles at major companies such as Rolls Royce Group and British Airways. His appointment is expected to strengthen Diageo’s board with his extensive experience in consumer and retail businesses, contributing to the company’s sustainable growth and shareholder value.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2025