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Anheuser-busch Inbev (BUD)
NYSE:BUD

Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa (BUD) AI Stock Analysis

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BUD

Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa

(NYSE:BUD)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$76.00
â–²(5.64% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/18/26
The score is primarily supported by strong profitability and durable cash generation alongside improving leverage, reinforced by favorable 2026 EBITDA growth guidance and significant buybacks/dividend growth. Offsetting factors are the reported 2025 revenue decline and high absolute debt, while technicals show an extended rally (RSI/Stoch very overbought) and valuation/income metrics are only average-to-modest.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow and capital returns
Consistently large operating and free cash flows provide durable funding for buybacks, dividends, debt repurchases and targeted capex. This cash generation supports capital allocation flexibility across cycles, enabling shareholder returns while funding strategic investments and balance sheet repair.
Sustained margin expansion and profitability
Material margin expansion reflects successful price/mix, premiumization and scale efficiencies. Higher operating leverage and strengthened gross margins make earnings and cashflows more resilient to moderate volume volatility and provide structural support for future reinvestment and returns.
Portfolio premiumization and digital ecosystem growth
Growth in BEES, marketplace and DTC plus faster-growing Beyond Beer and no‑alcohol segments diversifies revenue and increases revenue/hl over time. Digital and premium channels improve direct customer relationships, margin mix and structural growth optionality beyond core beer volumes.
Negative Factors
Reported 2025 revenue weakness and volatility
A pronounced reported revenue decline in 2025 introduces uncertainty about sustainable top-line momentum. Even with strong margins, uneven revenue outcomes complicate forecasting, weaken leverage of fixed costs and raise execution risk for restoring volume-led growth in key markets.
High absolute debt load
Despite improving leverage ratios, a very large absolute debt stock restricts strategic optionality, increases sensitivity to interest and FX movements, and leaves less room for large acquisitions or cyclical cushion without continued strong cash conversion and disciplined allocation.
China and on‑trade structural weakness
Significant China revenue declines and persistent on‑trade weakness create a lasting regional drag given the market's scale. Policy shifts, channel reorganization and slower premiumization in China raise the risk that global recovery depends on hard-to-replicate improvements there.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa (BUD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAnheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, alcoholic beverages, and soft drinks worldwide. It offers a portfolio of approximately 500 beer brands, which primarily include Budweiser, Corona, and Stella Artois; Beck's, Hoegaarden, Leffe, and Michelob Ultra; and Aguila, Antarctica, Bud Light, Brahma, Cass, Castle, Castle Lite, Cristal, Harbin, Jupiler, Modelo Especial, Quilmes, Victoria, Sedrin, and Skol brands. The company was founded in 1366 and is headquartered in Leuven, Belgium.
How the Company Makes MoneyAnheuser-Busch InBev primarily makes money by selling beer and other alcoholic beverages to retailers and wholesalers, with revenue recognized from the sale of branded products across its portfolio. Key revenue streams include (1) mainstream and premium beer sold in large volumes through off-premise channels (e.g., supermarkets, convenience stores) and on-premise channels (e.g., bars, restaurants); (2) above-core and premium offerings that typically carry higher margins, where pricing, brand strength, and mix can materially influence earnings; and (3) packaging formats (cans, bottles, kegs) and brand/pack innovation that support revenue per hectoliter. The company’s earnings are influenced by its ability to manage pricing and promotional spend, optimize product mix, and drive scale efficiencies in brewing, procurement, and logistics. Distribution is a major factor: AB InBev sells through a combination of owned or affiliated distribution in certain markets and third-party wholesalers/distributors in others, leveraging long-standing relationships with retail and on-premise customers to secure shelf space, tap handles, and menu placements. Marketing and sponsorships help build brand equity and support volume and pricing; however, specific partnership terms and financial contributions are not provided here and are therefore null.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Chart InsightsAnheuser-Busch InBev's revenue trends reveal strong momentum in the Middle Americas, driven by premium brands and strategic initiatives like the BEES marketplace, which saw significant growth. Despite a revenue decline in China due to a soft consumer environment, the company is optimistic about reigniting growth through innovation and investments. The upcoming FIFA World Cup in North America presents a strategic opportunity for further growth, aligning with their 4% to 8% EBITDA growth outlook. However, challenges such as unseasonable weather in the Americas could impact future performance.
Data provided by:The Fly

Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized disciplined execution and multiple positive financial and strategic outcomes — EPS growth, EBITDA and margin expansion, strong momentum in Beyond Beer, non-alcohol and BEES Marketplace, significant buybacks and a higher dividend — while acknowledging ongoing volume headwinds, a notable revenue decline in China, and transactional FX/hedging pressures. Management highlighted improving momentum into late Q4 and early 2026 and reiterated mid-term outlook, but cautioned on near-term phasing and market-specific challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Underlying EPS and Profit Growth
Underlying EPS of $3.73, up 6% in U.S. dollars and 9.4% in constant currency; underlying profit increased by $350 million. Dollar-based EPS has grown at a CAGR of 6.7% since 2021.
EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
EBITDA increased 4.9% year-over-year with margin expansion of 101 basis points, with margin improvement across 4 of 5 operating regions.
Topline and Revenue-per-Unit Improvement
Revenue per hectoliter rose 4.4%, driving top-line growth of 2%; revenue increased in 65% of markets.
Strong Growth in Beyond Beer and Non-Alcohol Portfolio
Beyond Beer revenue grew 23% and the non-alcohol beer portfolio increased revenue by 34%; non-alcohol beer gaining share in ~70% of top 14 markets.
Digital Ecosystem Momentum — BEES and DTC
BEES captured $53 billion in GMV (up 12% year-over-year); BEES Marketplace GMV grew 61% to $3.5 billion. DTC consumer base reached 12.3 million, up 11%.
Free Cash Flow, Capital Allocation and Balance Sheet Progress
Solid free cash flow enabled $3.2 billion completed share buybacks and an ongoing $6 billion buyback program; repurchased $2.7 billion of debt; leverage improved to 2.87x despite a $2.8 billion FX headwind; Board proposed final dividend EUR 1/share, combined dividend +15% year-over-year.
Mega Brands and Innovation Driving Premiumization
Mega brands have grown revenue at a 10% CAGR since 2021 and now represent 57% of revenues. Innovations (packaging, brands, liquids) contributed 11% of total revenue in 2025. Corona volumes doubled since 2018 and grew double digits in 30 markets in 2025.
Regional Operational Wins
U.S. gained share in beer and spirits with Michelob ULTRA and Busch Light as top volume share gainers; Cutwater grew triple digits. Mexico delivered mid-single-digit top- and bottom-line growth; Colombia delivered double-digit EBITDA growth; Brazil returned to volume growth in December; South Africa delivered mid-single-digit revenue and EBITDA growth.
Negative Updates
Overall Volume Underperformance
Aggregate volumes for 2025 were below potential and below trend in many regions; management noted volumes underperformed through much of the year and only showed stronger momentum in December and early 2026.
China Revenue and Volume Decline
China revenue declined by low teens in 2025 and volumes underperformed a more stable industry due to inventory adjustments and channel/geographic shifts; management is focused on rebuilding momentum after a Q4 share trend that was flat versus prior year.
FX and Hedging Headwinds
A stronger euro created a $2.8 billion FX headwind on net debt; higher cost of hedging and FX movements partially offset lower net interest expense. Management flagged transactional FX pressures, especially in the first half of 2026.
Consumer and Weather-Related Demand Pressures
Near-term demand was impacted by a constrained consumer environment and unseasonal/weather-related weakness (notably cold, rainy conditions in Brazil earlier in 2025) and pockets of consumer disposable-income stress due to inflation.
On-trade Weakness and Policy Risks in China
On-trade in China remained weak (stabilizing but not improving) and prior anti-extravaganza measures and regional differences required reorganization of distribution and focus, weighing on growth.
Phasing and Near-Term Cost Pressures
Management signaled potential first-half 2026 cost/hedging pressure due to FX hedge timing and noted concentrated marketing spend around the World Cup (phasing risk), which could affect quarter-to-quarter margin phasing.
Company Guidance
AB InBev guided 2026 to organic EBITDA growth of 4–8%, with net capital expenditures of $3.5–4.0 billion and a normalized effective tax rate of 26–28%, reiterating that this is in line with its medium‑term outlook; management also signalled continued margin upside after 2025’s 101 bps EBITDA margin expansion. On capital allocation, the company is executing a further $6.0 billion share buyback (after $3.2 billion completed), proposed a €1.00 final dividend (bringing total dividends to a 15% year‑over‑year increase including the interim), repurchased $2.7 billion of debt in 2025 and finished the year at 2.87x leverage despite a $2.8 billion FX headwind, with no bonds maturing in 2026 and a weighted average bond maturity of 13 years. Operational and digital targets underpin the guidance: 2025 saw revenue/hl +4.4%, revenue +2%, EBITDA +4.9%, underlying EPS $3.73 (+6% in USD, +9.4% constant currency) and underlying profit growth of $350 million; BEES GMV was $53 billion (+12%) with Marketplace GMV $3.5 billion (+61%), DTC served 12.3 million consumers (+11%), Beyond Beer revenue +23% and non‑alcohol beer revenue +34%, metrics management expects to leverage while investing behind brands and major activations (e.g., the World Cup).

Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability and cash generation are strong (2025 EBIT/EBITDA margins ~25%/~35%, operating cash flow ~$13–15B, free cash flow ~$11.3B). Balance sheet leverage is improving (debt-to-equity down to ~0.84x), but absolute debt remains high (~$73B) and the reported 2025 revenue decline is a key top-line risk.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Profitability is solid and improving: net margin rose from ~3.0% (2020) to ~11.5% (2025), and EBIT/EBITDA margins have strengthened to ~25%/~35% in 2025. Revenue has largely been stable in the high-$50B range since 2021, but growth has been modest and turned sharply negative in 2025 (reported -65.4%), which is a clear risk flag and creates uncertainty around the top-line trajectory despite strong margins.
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Leverage has improved versus earlier years: debt-to-equity declined from ~1.45x (2020) to ~0.84x (2025), indicating a healthier capital structure trend. However, absolute debt remains high (~$73B in 2025), and returns on equity are only moderate (~7–8% recently), suggesting profitability is good but not exceptional relative to the equity base and leverage still matters.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Cash generation is consistently strong: operating cash flow has been roughly $13–15B (2022–2025) and free cash flow is robust at ~$11.3B in 2025. Free cash flow conversion is decent but not perfect (free cash flow is ~75% of net income in 2024–2025), and free cash flow growth is volatile (notably negative in 2025), which points to some variability in cash efficiency year to year.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue59.50B59.77B59.38B57.79B54.30B
Gross Profit33.28B33.02B31.98B31.48B31.21B
EBITDA20.76B20.30B19.07B18.98B17.79B
Net Income6.86B5.86B5.34B5.97B4.67B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets218.81B206.64B219.34B212.94B217.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments11.94B11.39B10.40B10.00B12.39B
Total Debt73.03B72.17B78.17B79.99B88.83B
Total Liabilities121.07B117.94B126.66B128.66B138.29B
Stockholders Equity87.29B78.24B81.85B73.40B68.67B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow11.26B11.17B8.64B7.77B8.95B
Operating Cash Flow14.93B15.03B13.29B12.93B14.58B
Investing Cash Flow-3.77B-3.69B-4.38B-4.64B-5.87B
Financing Cash Flow-11.16B-9.40B-8.59B-10.23B-11.39B

Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price71.94
Price Trends
50DMA
73.22
Negative
100DMA
67.93
Positive
200DMA
65.92
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.86
Positive
RSI
32.65
Neutral
STOCH
19.23
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BUD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 71.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.69, below the 50-day MA of 73.22, and above the 200-day MA of 65.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BUD.

Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa Risk Analysis

Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$44.12B13.6316.90%8.22%-0.68%4.29%
70
Outperform
$21.32B35.367.60%4.33%1.44%-38.87%
68
Neutral
$140.41B18.5312.35%1.83%-2.06%21.03%
67
Neutral
$26.37B11.9615.12%2.92%-5.57%119.49%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
54
Neutral
$8.32B-4.26-18.18%4.08%-4.01%-339.22%
53
Neutral
$2.16B19.137.86%2.53%16.59%1.72%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
69.93
7.82
12.59%
CCU
Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA
11.54
-3.41
-22.80%
STZ
Constellation Brands
152.09
-22.26
-12.77%
FMX
Fomento Economico Mexicano
105.40
13.57
14.77%
TAP
Molson Coors
41.90
-14.82
-26.13%
ABEV
Ambev SA
2.83
0.64
29.40%

Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa Corporate Events

AB InBev Files 2025 Form 20-F With U.S. SEC
Mar 4, 2026

On March 3, 2026, AB InBev announced it had filed its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2025 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing provides audited financial statements and can be accessed via the company’s website or the SEC’s portal, with printed copies available on request, underscoring AB InBev’s ongoing compliance with U.S. disclosure requirements and transparency for global investors.

The report gives markets an official, detailed view of the brewer’s 2025 performance, following previously reported revenue of 59.3 billion USD for the year. By completing this regulatory milestone on schedule, AB InBev reinforces its standing as a major cross-listed multinational and provides key financial information that will inform analysts, bondholders and shareholders as they assess the company’s operating momentum and capital-market profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (BUD) stock is a Buy with a $89.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa stock, see the BUD Stock Forecast page.

Anheuser-Busch InBev Updates U.S. Investors on January 2026 Amendments to Articles of Association
Mar 2, 2026

On March 2, 2026, Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV filed a Form 6-K in the United States, furnishing an English translation of its coordinated Articles of Association as amended on January 2, 2026. The filing formally updates U.S. investors on the company’s Belgian corporate charter, including its legal form as a listed public limited company, its Brussels registered office and website, and its broad corporate purpose spanning beverage production and related holdings.

The coordinated Articles detail AB InBev’s history of amendments since its 2016 incorporation, including multiple notarial acts, changes to its registered office and confirmation of its unlimited duration under Belgian company law. By incorporating the updated Articles into existing U.S. registration statements, the brewer aligns its capital markets documentation with its latest governance framework, providing greater transparency on capital structure, share classes and corporate purpose for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BUD) stock is a Buy with a $89.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa stock, see the BUD Stock Forecast page.

AB InBev Posts Higher 2025 Earnings, Raises Payout Amid Premium and No-Alcohol Growth
Feb 13, 2026

On 12 February 2026, AB InBev reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing revenue growth of 2.5% in Q4 and 2.0% for the year, despite volume declines of 1.5% in the quarter and 2.3% for 2025 amid a constrained consumer environment and adverse weather in some markets. Normalized EBITDA rose 4.9% for the year with a 101-basis-point margin expansion to 35.8%, underlying EPS increased 6% to 3.73 USD, free cash flow reached 11.3 billion USD, and net debt to EBITDA edged down to 2.87x, underlining improved profitability and balance sheet resilience.

The brewer highlighted strong momentum in its premium, Beyond Beer and no-alcohol portfolios, noting that revenue per hectoliter grew 4.4% in 2025, driven by price/mix and premiumization, while marketing investments of 7.4 billion USD supported share gains in roughly two-thirds of its markets. The board proposed a final dividend of 1.00 EUR per share for 2025, bringing the total annual payout to 1.15 EUR, and confirmed progress on a previously announced 6 billion USD share buyback, signaling confidence in future cash generation and a shareholder-friendly capital allocation stance.

The most recent analyst rating on (BUD) stock is a Buy with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa stock, see the BUD Stock Forecast page.

AB InBev Reclaims Full Ownership of US Metal Container Plants in $2.9 Billion Deal
Jan 30, 2026

On 30 January 2026, AB InBev completed the previously announced reacquisition of the 49.9% minority stake in its US-based metal container plants from a consortium of institutional investors led and/or advised by affiliates of Apollo Global Management, in a transaction valued at approximately 2.9 billion USD. The deal restores full ownership of the packaging assets to AB InBev, consolidating control over a critical part of its US supply chain and cost base, and potentially enhancing operational flexibility and margin management in one of its most important beer markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (BUD) stock is a Hold with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa stock, see the BUD Stock Forecast page.

AB InBev to Reacquire $3 Billion Minority Stake in US Metal Container Plants
Jan 6, 2026

On 6 January 2026, AB InBev announced it had exercised its right to reacquire the 49.9% minority stake in its US-based metal container plants from a consortium of institutional investors led or advised by Apollo Global Management, in a deal valued at approximately $3 billion. The company’s seven US metal container facilities, spread across six states, are described as strategically important for quality control, cost efficiency, innovation speed and supply security for AB InBev’s brands, while also supporting manufacturing employment and local economic growth. The repurchase, to be funded entirely with cash on hand, is positioned as aligned with AB InBev’s capital allocation framework focused on long-term shareholder value and is expected to be earnings-per-share accretive in the first year after closing, with completion targeted for the first quarter of 2026 subject to customary conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (BUD) stock is a Buy with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa stock, see the BUD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026