Boston Beer (SAM)
NYSE:SAM
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Boston Beer
(NYSE:SAM)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$287.00
▲(16.99% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/11/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (low leverage and strong 2025 free cash flow) and constructive technical trend signals. Offsetting factors include balanced/cautious 2026 outlook with volume pressure and tariff risks, plus a major one-time legal verdict expense that adds near-term uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Low leverage, strong balance sheet
Very low debt and a sizable equity base (~$846M in 2025) provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and liquidity risk, supports consistent capital allocation (capex, repurchases, M&A), and gives management room to absorb shocks without impairing long-term operations.
Negative Factors
Persistent volume and revenue declines
Sustained declines in core shipments and depletions signal weaker end-market demand and network placement, which undermines scale economics and long-term pricing power. Without durable volume recovery, marketing spend and innovation must meaningfully outpace declines to restore historical profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low leverage, strong balance sheet
Very low debt and a sizable equity base (~$846M in 2025) provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and liquidity risk, supports consistent capital allocation (capex, repurchases, M&A), and gives management room to absorb shocks without impairing long-term operations.
Read all positive factors
Boston Beer (SAM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.47B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)179.21K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.3
Beta (1Y)0.18
Revenue Growth-2.38%
EPS Growth97.63%
CountryUS
Employees2,537
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.12
Shares Outstanding8,373,366
10 Day Avg. Volume235,026
30 Day Avg. Volume179,213
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.20
Price to Book (P/B)2.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.00
P/FCF Ratio9.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.93
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$244.33Price Target Upside-0.41% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)9.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.97B
Boston Beer Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. produces and sells alcohol beverages primarily in the United States. The company's flagship beer is Samuel Adams Boston Lager. It offers various beers, hard ciders, and hard seltzers under the Samuel Adams, Twisted Te...
How the Company Makes Money
Boston Beer makes money primarily by selling alcoholic beverages to a network of wholesale distributors, who then sell to retailers (e.g., grocery, liquor, convenience) and on-premise accounts (e.g., bars and restaurants). Its core revenue stream ...
Boston Beer Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Balanced. The company delivered strong margin expansion, significant cash generation, successful new-product scale (notably Sun Cruiser), and manufacturing/operational improvements that enabled increased brand investment and share repurchases. However, top-line pressure persisted with declines in depletions, revenue and key legacy brands (Twisted Tea, Truly), plus macro and tariff-related cost risks. Management has provided disciplined guidance and a plan to invest behind innovations while continuing productivity initiatives, but volume recovery is uncertain in the near term.Positive Updates
Gross Margin Expansion
Full year 2025 gross margin expanded 410 basis points to 48.5% (50% excluding contractual prepayments and shortfall fees), the highest full-year gross margin since 2019; Q4 gross margin improved 360 basis points year-over-year to 43.5% driven by brewery efficiencies, procurement savings, price/mix and lower inventory obsolescence.
Negative Updates
Volume and Revenue Declines
Full year 2025 depletions down 4% (in line with industry), revenue down 2.4% YoY driven by shipments down 4.7%; Q4 depletions decreased 6% and shipments decreased 7.5%, with Q4 revenue down 4.1%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Gross Margin Expansion
Full year 2025 gross margin expanded 410 basis points to 48.5% (50% excluding contractual prepayments and shortfall fees), the highest full-year gross margin since 2019; Q4 gross margin improved 360 basis points year-over-year to 43.5% driven by brewery efficiencies, procurement savings, price/mix and lower inventory obsolescence.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided fiscal 2026 depletions and shipments to be flat to down mid‑single digits (noting the first 8 weeks were down ~3% Y/Y), expects price realizations of 1–2% plus some mix benefit, and sees full‑year reported gross margin of 48–50% (long‑term goal: high‑40s); they estimate full‑year tariff costs of $20–30M (vs ~$11M in partial 2025), expect shortfall fees and third‑party prepayment noncash expenses to negatively impact gross margins by ~40–60 bps (with most shortfall fees expensed in Q4 and the biggest margin improvement expected in Q4), and plan incremental advertising/promotional/selling spend of $20–40M (weighted to Q2–Q3). Other 2026 targets: diluted EPS $8.50–$11.00, effective tax rate ~29–30%, capex $70–90M; balance sheet/allocations include $223M cash, $150M unused credit line, and ~ $215M remaining on a $1.6B repurchase authorization (after $214M repurchased since Jan 2025).Boston Beer Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.09B | 2.01B | 2.01B | 2.09B | 2.06B |
| Gross Profit | 952.58M | 893.73M | 852.37M | 861.99M | 797.79M |
| EBITDA | 243.90M | 245.78M | 209.96M | 207.41M | 129.27M |
| Net Income | 108.47M | 59.70M | 76.25M | 67.26M | 14.55M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.19B | 1.25B | 1.43B | 1.42B | 1.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 223.38M | 211.82M | 298.49M | 180.56M | 26.85M |
| Total Debt | 37.87M | 38.78M | 45.27M | 54.14M | 61.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 347.31M | 333.83M | 352.06M | 352.22M | 403.38M |
| Stockholders Equity | 846.28M | 916.19M | 1.08B | 1.07B | 983.41M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 215.59M | 172.62M | 201.06M | 109.36M | -91.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 270.16M | 248.89M | 265.15M | 199.94M | 56.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -54.52M | -96.25M | -62.38M | -88.51M | -146.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -204.08M | -239.31M | -84.84M | 2.80M | -6.64M |
Boston Beer Technical Analysis
Positive
245.33
Price Trends
235.30
Positive
219.95
Positive
216.43
Positive
Market Momentum
4.52
Positive
55.45
Neutral
40.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 245.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 238.22, above the 50-day MA of 235.30, and above the 200-day MA of 216.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SAM.
Boston Beer Risk Analysis
Boston Beer disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Boston Beer reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Boston Beer Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $45.69B | 13.63 | 16.90% | 8.22% | -4.48% | 5.31% | |
71 Outperform | $2.47B | 19.30 | 12.16% | ― | -2.38% | 97.63% | |
68 Neutral | $144.43B | 18.53 | 8.17% | 1.83% | -0.33% | 18.34% | |
65 Neutral | $26.86B | 16.42 | 22.08% | 2.92% | -10.48% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
53 Neutral | $2.12B | 19.13 | 7.86% | 2.53% | -0.21% | -27.12% | |
53 Neutral | $8.44B | -4.26 | -18.18% | 4.08% | -4.18% | -301.58% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
SAM
Boston Beer
240.15
-6.37
-2.58%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
73.31
9.31
14.55%
CCU
Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA
11.32
-3.81
-25.16%
STZ
Constellation Brands
155.08
-27.49
-15.06%
TAP
Molson Coors
42.59
-12.28
-22.38%
ABEV
Ambev SA
2.89
0.53
22.30%
Boston Beer Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Boston Beer Faces $175.5 Million Jury Verdict Expense
Negative
Apr 10, 2026
On December 31, 2022, Ardagh Metal Packaging USA Corp. sued Boston Beer in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, alleging the brewer failed to meet contractual minimum purchase volumes for certain aluminum beverage cans be...
Executive/Board ChangesStock Buyback
Boston Beer Announces Director Retirement and Board Transition
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On March 13, 2026, Boston Beer Company director Michael Spillane informed the board that he would not stand for re-election at the end of his current term and would retire from the board following the conclusion of the company’s 2026 Annual ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Boston Beer Updates Executive Compensation and 2026 Pay Framework
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
Boston Beer detailed 2025 compensation outcomes and 2026 pay structures for its named executive officers, following leadership changes during 2025 in which founder C. James Koch reassumed the president and CEO roles from Michael Spillane on August...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Boston Beer Announces CMO Transition and Separation Agreement
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Boston Beer and Chief Marketing Officer Lesya Lysyj agreed that she would step down from her role effective March 6, 2026, while remaining in an advisory capacity through September 30, 2026. On February 10, 2026, the parties e...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.