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Boston Beer Company (SAM)
NYSE:SAM
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Boston Beer (SAM) AI Stock Analysis

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SAM

Boston Beer

(NYSE:SAM)

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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$186.00
▲(3.25% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/27/26
SAM scores as moderate: financial strength is supported by low leverage and strong free cash flow, but this is tempered by the recent swing to losses and weak TTM EBITDA. The earnings call was balanced—margin initiatives and maintained EPS guidance help, yet ongoing volume declines and litigation/cost headwinds remain key risks. Technicals are mixed with longer-term trend pressure, and valuation is penalized by a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Very low leverage and a conservatively financed balance sheet provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and interest risk, supports continued investment or buybacks during cyclical downturns, and gives management optionality to absorb shocks without forcing asset sales.
Negative Factors
Volume declines
Persistent volume declines reduce operating leverage and limit revenue growth, forcing heavier reliance on price/mix and cost cuts to sustain profits. If category or share trends don't reverse, scaled fixed costs and lower throughput can erode margin gains and long-term competitiveness.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
Very low leverage and a conservatively financed balance sheet provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and interest risk, supports continued investment or buybacks during cyclical downturns, and gives management optionality to absorb shocks without forcing asset sales.
Read all positive factors

Boston Beer (SAM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Boston Beer Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. is a leading producer and marketer of alcoholic beverages, primarily focused on the United States market. Its most recognized offering is Samuel Adams Boston Lager. The company's diverse product portfolio features a r...
How the Company Makes Money
Boston Beer primarily makes money by selling its alcoholic beverages to a network of wholesalers/distributors, who in turn sell to retailers (e.g., grocery, liquor stores, convenience stores) and on-premise accounts (e.g., bars and restaurants). R...

Boston Beer Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: operational and margin improvements (gross margin expansion, higher internal production, procurement savings, strong SunCruiser and Angry Orchard performance, reduced obsolete inventory, and strong cash/repurchase activity) offset meaningful top-line weakness (depletions down 6%, shipments down 4.5%, revenue down 3.3%), elevated marketing and freight costs, and substantial litigation-related expenses. Management maintained non-GAAP EPS guidance and raised the low end of gross margin guidance while trimming lower-return advertising; however, near-term volume headwinds and litigation uncertainty remain material risks.
Positive Updates
Gross Margin Expansion
Second-quarter gross margin of 50.4%, up 60 basis points year-over-year; company raised the low end of full-year gross margin guidance to a range of 48.5%–50% driven by brewery efficiencies, favorable mix, procurement savings and price increases.
Negative Updates
Volume and Shipment Declines
Second-quarter depletions decreased 6% year-over-year and shipments decreased 4.5%; first-half shipments were down 5.6% and fiscal 29-week depletions declined 5%, with full-year volume guidance of down low single digits to down mid single digits and management expecting performance toward the lower end if current trends continue.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Gross Margin Expansion
Second-quarter gross margin of 50.4%, up 60 basis points year-over-year; company raised the low end of full-year gross margin guidance to a range of 48.5%–50% driven by brewery efficiencies, favorable mix, procurement savings and price increases.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Boston Beer reiterated 2026 guidance: full‑year volume expected down low‑single to mid‑single digits (first 29 weeks depletions down 5%, management sees results leaning to the lower end if current trends persist), with Q3 shipments expected to decline low‑ to mid‑single digits and modest shipment growth in Q4; full‑year shipments and depletions are expected to be broadly aligned. Financial targets include gross margin of 48.5%–50% (Q2 was 50.4%, +60 bps YoY), non‑GAAP EPS of $8.50–$10.50 with a non‑GAAP tax rate of ~29%–30%, and planned price increases of 1%–2% plus mix benefits. Operating assumptions note A&P/promotional/selling spend now expected flat to up $20M (vs prior +$20–$40M), tariff headwinds of $20–$30M (vs $11M partial 2025), freight costs up >35% YoY, domestic internal production >90% for 2026 (Q2: 84% vs 76% last year), distributor inventories ~4–4.5 weeks, and capex of $60–$80M (reduced from $70–$90M). Liquidity and capital return metrics: cash of $266M, $150M borrowing availability, YTD share repurchases of >$55M (recent buys $48.5M and $5.6M), and ~$174M remaining on a $1.6B repurchase authorization; management expects to deliver planned productivity savings and will flex advertising based on returns and commodity cost trends, with SunCruiser cited as a key H2 growth tailwind.

Boston Beer Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong balance sheet with very low leverage and solid flexibility (balance sheet score 78) plus consistently positive, robust free cash flow (cash flow score 74) support resilience. However, operating performance has deteriorated in the most recent period with a swing to TTM net losses and extremely low EBITDA margin despite stable revenue, pulling the overall financial picture down (income statement score 42).
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.09B2.09B2.01B2.01B2.09B2.06B
Gross Profit941.13M952.58M893.73M852.37M861.99M797.79M
EBITDA8.16M243.90M245.78M209.96M207.41M129.27M
Net Income-70.07M108.47M59.70M76.25M67.26M14.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.26B1.19B1.25B1.43B1.42B1.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments265.55M223.38M211.82M298.49M180.56M26.85M
Total Debt31.55M37.87M38.78M45.27M54.14M61.48M
Total Liabilities540.52M347.31M333.83M352.06M352.22M403.38M
Stockholders Equity714.57M846.28M916.19M1.08B1.07B983.41M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow206.02M215.59M172.62M201.06M109.36M-91.62M
Operating Cash Flow259.29M270.16M248.89M265.15M199.94M56.30M
Investing Cash Flow-53.19M-54.52M-96.25M-62.38M-88.51M-146.62M
Financing Cash Flow-153.01M-204.08M-239.31M-84.84M2.80M-6.64M

Boston Beer Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price180.15
Price Trends
50DMA
178.00
Positive
100DMA
201.63
Negative
200DMA
207.15
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.38
Negative
RSI
51.83
Neutral
STOCH
48.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 180.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 178.52, above the 50-day MA of 178.00, and below the 200-day MA of 207.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SAM.

Boston Beer Risk Analysis

Boston Beer disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Boston Beer reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Boston Beer Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$49.60B15.3817.19%4.28%4.24%19.95%
69
Neutral
$13.27B18.9017.63%3.29%-0.45%-16.82%
65
Neutral
$172.11B14.5712.72%1.65%6.60%31.61%
64
Neutral
$22.24B12.4123.13%3.14%-9.99%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
57
Neutral
$7.81B-3.91-19.15%4.64%-1.30%-312.85%
56
Neutral
$1.89B-26.98-8.89%-6.06%-195.51%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SAM
Boston Beer
183.20
-35.23
-16.13%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
86.48
29.04
50.57%
BF.A
Brown Forman A
29.22
0.88
3.12%
STZ
Constellation Brands
130.23
-35.22
-21.29%
TAP
Molson Coors
41.56
-5.05
-10.84%
ABEV
Ambev SA
3.11
1.01
48.24%

Boston Beer Corporate Events

Financial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Boston Beer Adjusts Litigation Charge After Amended Judgment
Negative
Jun 1, 2026
On April 6, 2026, a jury in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois awarded damages against Boston Beer in its supplier dispute with Ardagh Metal Packaging USA, leading the company to record a first-quarter 2026 non-recurring...
Executive/Board Changes
Boston Beer Reshapes Board Committees, Strengthens Governance Oversight
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Boston Beer’s Board of Directors reshuffled key board committees, appointing independent directors to the Audit, Compensation, and Nominating/Governance Committees, with Cynthia L. Swanson, Joseph H. Jordan, and Meghan V. Jo...
Stock Buyback
Boston Beer Authorizes New $25 Million Share Buyback
Positive
May 19, 2026
On May 15, 2026, Boston Beer Company authorized a stock repurchase program under Rule 10b5-1 to buy back up to $25 million of its Class A common stock. The repurchases are scheduled to occur between June 29, 2026, and September 25, 2026, signaling...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 27, 2026