Boston Beer Company (SAM)
NYSE:SAM
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Boston Beer
(NYSE:SAM)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$180.00
▼(-26.63% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/02/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—strong cash flow and a conservative balance sheet offset by a sharp profitability breakdown. Technicals are weak with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative MACD. Valuation is constrained by losses (negative P/E) and no dividend support, while the latest earnings call points to improving margins but ongoing volume pressure and sizable litigation-related uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Extremely low leverage and a sizable equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This balance sheet strength supports capital allocation (capex, buybacks), funds potential litigation outcomes, and reduces refinancing risk, cushioning operations during cyclical volume weakness.
Negative Factors
Large Litigation Charge
A material pretax litigation expense creates near-term earnings volatility and cash demand uncertainty. The ultimate timing and amount remain unsettled, which complicates planning, could divert cash from operations or buybacks, and increases legal/counterparty risk over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet
Extremely low leverage and a sizable equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This balance sheet strength supports capital allocation (capex, buybacks), funds potential litigation outcomes, and reduces refinancing risk, cushioning operations during cyclical volume weakness.
Read all positive factors
Boston Beer (SAM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.82B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)279.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.14
Revenue Growth-4.69%
EPS Growth-204.08%
CountryUS
Employees2,537
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Alcoholic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-6.30
Shares Outstanding8,345,442
10 Day Avg. Volume334,886
30 Day Avg. Volume279,227
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.20
Price to Book (P/B)2.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.00
P/FCF Ratio9.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$236.19Price Target Upside-3.73% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)9.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.95B
Boston Beer Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. produces and sells alcohol beverages primarily in the United States. The company's flagship beer is Samuel Adams Boston Lager. It offers various beers, hard ciders, and hard seltzers under the Samuel Adams, Twisted Te...
How the Company Makes Money
Boston Beer makes money primarily by selling alcoholic beverages to a network of wholesale distributors, who then sell to retailers (e.g., grocery, liquor, convenience) and on-premise accounts (e.g., bars and restaurants). Its core revenue stream ...
Boston Beer Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted clear operational and margin progress (49.3% gross margin, procurement savings, higher in-house production, reduced obsolete inventory, brand-level wins and continued share repurchases) which positions the company to partially offset external cost pressures. However, material headwinds remain: volume and shipment declines (-4% depletions, -6.9% shipments), a significant $216M pretax litigation charge, revenue decline (-4.4%), ongoing commodity and tariff inflation (Q1 aluminum tariff $4.3M; FY tariff estimate $20M–$30M) and continued brand share challenges (notably Truly and some softness in Samuel Adams and Hard Mountain Dew). Management is taking actions—advertising reallocation, innovation, and productivity initiatives—and has narrowed guidance to reflect these risks. Balancing the notable margin/operational gains and strong brand/innovation momentum against meaningful volume weakness and a large, uncertain litigation expense yields a mixed but managed outlook.Positive Updates
Gross Margin Expansion
Reported first quarter gross margin of 49.3%, up 100 basis points year-over-year; company expects full-year 2026 reported gross margins of 48%–50% and continues to deliver productivity and procurement savings contributing to margin improvements.
Negative Updates
Volume and Shipment Declines
First quarter depletions decreased 4% year-over-year and shipments decreased 6.9% (management also referenced shipments down ~7%), with particular declines in Twisted Tea, Truly, Samuel Adams, and Hard Mountain Dew; company narrowed 2026 volume guidance to down low-single digits to down mid-single digits.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Gross Margin Expansion
Reported first quarter gross margin of 49.3%, up 100 basis points year-over-year; company expects full-year 2026 reported gross margins of 48%–50% and continues to deliver productivity and procurement savings contributing to margin improvements.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management narrowed 2026 volume guidance to down low-single digits to down mid-single digits (from prior flat to down mid-single digits) and tightened non-GAAP EPS to $8.50–$10.50 (from $8.50–$11); fiscal-week depletions for the first 17 weeks are down 4% (improving from down 6% in Q4), Q1 depletions fell 4% and shipments declined 6.9%, with distributor inventory at 4.5 weeks vs. 5 weeks a year ago. Q1 revenue was down 4.4%, gross margin was 49.3% (up 100 bps) with full-year reported gross margin expected at 48%–50% (but with shortfall fees and third‑party prepayments expected to subtract ~40–60 bps); procurement and brewery efficiencies (Q1 domestic internal production 95% vs. 85% LY; full year >90% vs. 86% LY) and mix are expected to offset inflationary impacts (Q1 inflationary impacts ≈$12.5M, including ~$4.3M aluminum tariffs) and a full‑year tariff estimate of $20M–$30M. Other guidance and cash priorities: price increases of 1%–2%, incremental A&P up $20M–$40M (flexible to spend at the low end), capex $70M–$90M, non‑GAAP tax rate ~29%–30%, cash of $164M with $150M available on the line, share repurchases >$30M YTD (including $23.8M and $7.4M) and ~$197M remaining on a $1.6B authorization; note Q1 non‑GAAP EPS was $1.64, GAAP EPS took a $15.52 hit from $216M pretax litigation expense.Boston Beer Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.07B | 2.09B | 2.01B | 2.01B | 2.09B | 2.06B |
| Gross Profit | 947.28M | 952.58M | 893.73M | 852.37M | 861.99M | 797.79M |
| EBITDA | 257.32M | 243.90M | 245.78M | 209.96M | 207.41M | 129.27M |
| Net Income | -61.20M | 108.47M | 59.70M | 76.25M | 67.26M | 14.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.17B | 1.19B | 1.25B | 1.43B | 1.42B | 1.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 164.12M | 223.38M | 211.82M | 298.49M | 180.56M | 26.85M |
| Total Debt | 34.74M | 37.87M | 38.78M | 45.27M | 54.14M | 61.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 488.45M | 347.31M | 333.83M | 352.06M | 352.22M | 403.38M |
| Stockholders Equity | 682.59M | 846.28M | 916.19M | 1.08B | 1.07B | 983.41M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 190.82M | 215.59M | 172.62M | 201.06M | 109.36M | -91.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 247.78M | 270.16M | 248.89M | 265.15M | 199.94M | 56.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -56.96M | -54.52M | -96.25M | -62.38M | -88.51M | -146.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -179.16M | -204.08M | -239.31M | -84.84M | 2.80M | -6.64M |
Boston Beer Technical Analysis
Negative
245.33
Price Trends
226.30
Negative
223.24
Negative
217.72
Negative
Market Momentum
-16.69
Positive
18.82
Positive
9.23
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 245.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 211.16, above the 50-day MA of 226.30, and above the 200-day MA of 217.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -16.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 18.82 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SAM.
Boston Beer Risk Analysis
Boston Beer disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Boston Beer reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Boston Beer Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $49.35B | 15.66 | 17.19% | 8.22% | -0.41% | 13.36% | |
68 Neutral | $160.60B | 18.58 | 8.66% | 1.83% | -0.33% | 18.34% | |
63 Neutral | $2.12B | 8.72 | 7.53% | 2.53% | 0.23% | -28.74% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
58 Neutral | $8.10B | 13.44 | -19.15% | 4.08% | -1.30% | -312.85% | |
56 Neutral | $1.82B | -4.14 | -7.30% | ― | -4.69% | -204.08% | |
55 Neutral | $24.51B | 33.92 | 22.08% | 2.92% | -10.48% | ― |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
SAM
Boston Beer
174.03
-72.60
-29.44%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
81.32
13.56
20.01%
CCU
Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA
11.61
-2.33
-16.69%
STZ
Constellation Brands
147.58
-40.23
-21.42%
TAP
Molson Coors
41.68
-12.76
-23.43%
ABEV
Ambev SA
3.14
0.75
31.11%
Boston Beer Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Boston Beer Faces $175.5 Million Jury Verdict Expense
Negative
Apr 10, 2026
On December 31, 2022, Ardagh Metal Packaging USA Corp. sued Boston Beer in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, alleging the brewer failed to meet contractual minimum purchase volumes for certain aluminum beverage cans be...
Executive/Board ChangesStock Buyback
Boston Beer Announces Director Retirement and Board Transition
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On March 13, 2026, Boston Beer Company director Michael Spillane informed the board that he would not stand for re-election at the end of his current term and would retire from the board following the conclusion of the company’s 2026 Annual ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.