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Boston Beer (SAM)
NYSE:SAM
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Boston Beer (SAM) AI Stock Analysis

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SAM

Boston Beer

(NYSE:SAM)

Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$232.00
▲(5.57% Upside)
Boston Beer's overall score reflects strong financial health and a strategic stock repurchase plan. However, valuation concerns and mixed technical indicators, along with a cautious earnings outlook, moderate the positive aspects.
Positive Factors
Earnings
SAM outperformed expectations, delivering a notable earnings beat, driven by much better than expected gross margin.
Financial Performance
Adjusted operating income has increased by approximately 21%, indicating some financial improvement.
Leadership
Jim Koch's return to the helm should be well received, as his succession planning has always been important to investors.
Negative Factors
Market Trends
Expected continued structural headwinds to alcohol consumption in the US from demographics, health & wellness and moderation trends, and cannabis.
Product Performance
Continued headwinds for the Twisted Tea brand amid pressure in the FMB category as consumers continue to migrate to spirits-based RTDs, where SAM has a much smaller presence.
Volume Challenges
The company guided down on volumes for the year, which was already widely expected.

Boston Beer (SAM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Boston Beer Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBoston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) is an American brewery founded in 1984, primarily known for its flagship Samuel Adams brand. The company operates in the alcoholic beverage sector, focusing on the production and sale of craft beers, ciders, and hard seltzers. Boston Beer offers a diverse portfolio of products that includes various beer styles, such as lagers, IPAs, and seasonal brews, as well as its Truly Hard Seltzer and Angry Orchard cider brands, catering to a wide range of consumer preferences within the craft beverage market.
How the Company Makes MoneyBoston Beer generates revenue primarily through the sale of its alcoholic beverages, including beers, ciders, and hard seltzers. The company operates on a direct-to-consumer model as well as through distribution agreements with wholesalers and retailers across the United States and internationally. Key revenue streams include the sale of packaged products (cans and bottles) and draft beer served in bars and restaurants. The company's innovative product development, seasonal offerings, and limited-edition releases also help to drive sales. Additionally, partnerships with distributors and retailers enhance market reach and brand visibility, contributing to its overall earnings.

Boston Beer Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 8.89%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 16, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with strong financial performance in terms of gross margin and EPS growth, as well as the success of the Sun Cruiser brand. However, these positives are balanced by challenges in depletion trends, economic and weather-related pressures, and the decline of key brands like Twisted Tea. The outlook is cautious with a wide range in volume guidance due to uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Gross Margin Expansion
The company delivered a gross margin of 49.8% in Q2, an increase of 380 basis points year-over-year, driven by improved brewery efficiencies, procurement savings, price increases, and product mix.
Sun Cruiser Success
Sun Cruiser has quickly grown to a 4 share of the RTD spirits category and continues to expand its distribution, expected to be an important growth contributor for the Beyond Beer category.
EPS Growth
Boston Beer reported EPS of $5.45 per diluted share, an increase of 24.1% compared to the prior year, driven by higher gross margins and lower share count.
Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns
The company generated over $125 million in operating cash flow in the first half, enabling $111 million in cash returns to shareholders year-to-date.
Negative Updates
Decline in Depletions
Depletions in Q2 decreased 5%, impacted by declines in Truly Hard Seltzer and Sam Adams brands, with shipment trends expected to decline in the second half of the year.
Economic and Weather Challenges
The company faced challenges from economic uncertainty, household budget tightening, and poor weather in key selling weeks, affecting consumer demand in the beer industry.
Twisted Tea Decline
Twisted Tea faced a decline with dollar sales down 4% in measured channels last quarter, impacted by the macroeconomic environment and competition from other RTD beverages.
Tariff Costs Impact
Late Q2 saw tariff costs that negatively impacted the gross margin, with expected unfavorable 2025 cost impact of approximately $15 million to $20 million.
Company Guidance
During The Boston Beer Company's second-quarter 2025 earnings call, guidance for the fiscal year was updated to reflect a challenging macroeconomic environment. The company reported a 5% decrease in depletions for the second quarter, while shipments were down only 1%. Year-to-date depletions were down 3%, and the company expects volumes to decrease between high single digits to low single digits for the year. The gross margin guidance was raised to 46% to 47.3%, despite anticipated tariff costs impacting margins by 70 to 100 basis points. The company generated over $125 million in operating cash flow in the first half of the year, with $111 million returned to shareholders. Earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter increased by 24.1% to $5.45, driven by improved margins and lower share count. However, full-year EPS guidance was adjusted to $6.72 to $9.54, factoring in the tariff impacts. The call also highlighted strong consumer reception for the Sun Cruiser brand, which has quickly captured a 4% share of the ready-to-drink spirits category, contributing positively to the company's mix and margin profile.

Boston Beer Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Boston Beer exhibits solid financial health with consistent profitability margins and a strong balance sheet. The low debt levels and excellent cash flow metrics support strategic flexibility, despite the modest revenue growth.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Boston Beer has shown a stable financial performance with a consistent gross profit margin of around 44%, reflecting strong profitability in its operations. The net profit margin has improved in the TTM period to 3.4% from 2.8% in the previous year, indicating better cost management or pricing strategy. Revenue growth has been relatively flat over the last period, which could be a concern if not addressed with strategic initiatives. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have seen some fluctuations, with the TTM EBIT margin at 4.7% and EBITDA margin at 11.5%, indicating manageable operating profitability.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with an equity ratio of approximately 72.3% in the TTM, indicative of financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.052 in the TTM, suggesting low financial leverage and risk. Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 8% for the TTM, which signifies moderate returns for shareholders. The company seems to have a reliable financial footing, though improvement in asset utilization could enhance overall returns.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Boston Beer's cash flow performance is robust, with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.58 in the TTM, indicating efficient cash conversion from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also healthy at 2.59, showing good cash generation after capital expenditures. Free cash flow growth has been positive, supported by stable operating cash flows and reduced capital expenditure requirements. This positions the company well for future investments or debt repayment.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.01B2.01B2.09B2.06B1.74B
Gross Profit893.73M852.37M861.99M797.79M814.45M
EBITDA245.78M209.96M242.67M87.13M317.44M
Net Income59.70M76.25M67.26M14.55M191.96M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.25B1.43B1.42B1.39B1.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments211.82M298.49M180.56M26.85M163.28M
Total Debt35.94M45.27M54.14M61.48M67.40M
Total Liabilities333.83M352.06M352.22M408.17M421.86M
Stockholders Equity916.19M1.08B1.07B983.41M956.97M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow172.62M201.06M109.36M-91.62M113.41M
Operating Cash Flow248.89M265.15M199.94M56.30M253.41M
Investing Cash Flow-96.25M-62.38M-88.51M-146.62M-139.12M
Financing Cash Flow-239.31M-84.84M2.80M-6.64M12.32M

Boston Beer Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price219.75
Price Trends
50DMA
206.08
Positive
100DMA
222.94
Negative
200DMA
248.35
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
4.62
Negative
RSI
57.48
Neutral
STOCH
82.47
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 219.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 211.80, above the 50-day MA of 206.08, and below the 200-day MA of 248.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.62 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SAM.

Boston Beer Risk Analysis

Boston Beer disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Boston Beer reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Boston Beer Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$2.26B14.5510.15%3.63%13.92%32.69%
73
Outperform
$2.40B31.658.15%2.46%-7.28%
73
Outperform
$35.73B13.6715.08%2.05%-0.79%-10.83%
71
Outperform
$121.90B17.058.97%1.73%-2.06%21.03%
67
Neutral
$29.97B49.10-5.05%2.38%-0.47%-117.62%
67
Neutral
$10.60B10.057.79%3.55%-5.48%-6.99%
63
Neutral
$20.98B14.59-8.07%3.13%2.83%-9.85%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SAM
Boston Beer
219.75
-62.54
-22.15%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch Inbev Sa
60.68
0.74
1.23%
CCU
Compania Cervecerias Unidas SA
12.51
1.43
12.91%
STZ
Constellation Brands
169.51
-70.97
-29.51%
TAP
Molson Coors
51.23
-0.70
-1.35%
ABEV
Ambev SA
2.18
-0.02
-0.91%

Boston Beer Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesStock Buyback
Boston Beer Grants Stock Award to CFO Amid Transition
Neutral
Aug 12, 2025

On August 11, 2025, Boston Beer Company’s Board of Directors granted a restricted stock award valued at approximately $1.2 million to Treasurer and CFO Diego Reynoso, aimed at retention amid a CEO transition. Additionally, the company initiated a 10b5-1 plan to repurchase up to $50 million of its Class A Common Stock between September 29, 2025, and December 26, 2025, reflecting strategic financial management.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAM) stock is a Hold with a $305.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boston Beer stock, see the SAM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Boston Beer CEO Michael Spillane Steps Down
Neutral
Aug 1, 2025

The Boston Beer Company announced that Michael Spillane will step down as President and CEO on August 15, 2025, for personal reasons, and will remain in an advisory role until March 31, 2026. Jim Koch, the company’s founder and chairman, will resume the role of President and CEO, a position he held from 1984 to 2001. Spillane’s leadership saw the company through a profitable period, and he will continue to influence the company’s strategy as a board member. This leadership transition is expected to maintain the company’s strategic direction and commitment to long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAM) stock is a Hold with a $305.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boston Beer stock, see the SAM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsStock Buyback
Boston Beer Announces Stock Repurchase Plan
Positive
May 16, 2025

Boston Beer Company held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 14, 2025, where significant decisions were made regarding the election of directors and approval of executive compensation. The meeting saw the election of Class A and Class B Directors for one-year terms, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm, and the approval of executive compensation policies. Additionally, the company announced a 10b5-1 plan to repurchase up to $50 million of Class A Common Stock, reflecting a strategic move to manage liquidity and investment diversification.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAM) stock is a Hold with a $290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boston Beer stock, see the SAM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 29, 2025