The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. Despite strong performance in core brands, successful premiumization, and robust cash flow, the company faces significant challenges in the U.S. beer market, leading to a reduction in financial guidance. The spike in Midwest Premium pricing further exacerbates the situation.

Company Guidance -

Q3 2025

During Molson Coors Beverage Company's second quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings call, the company revised its guidance due to several macroeconomic challenges. The projected net sales revenue is expected to decline by 3% to 4% on a constant currency basis, compared to an earlier forecast of a low single-digit decline. This adjustment reflects an anticipated 4% to 6% decline in U.S. industry volume for the second half of the year. The underlying pretax income is expected to decrease by 12% to 15%, impacted by a $20 million to $35 million increase in costs due to the Midwest Premium on aluminum, which surged by over 180% since January. Consequently, underlying earnings per share are projected to decline by 7% to 10%, rather than the previously predicted low single-digit growth. Despite these setbacks, the company reaffirmed its underlying free cash flow guidance at $1.3 billion, plus or minus 10%, supported by expected higher cash tax benefits and favorable working capital adjustments.

Strong Performance of Core Brands

Coors Light, Miller Lite, and Coors Banquet retained significant shelf space gains and commanded a 15.2% volume share of the industry for the first half of the year, up from 13.4% three years ago. Coors Banquet gained over 15% distribution in the first half of the year.

Successful Premiumization and Innovation

In the U.S., Peroni showed positive results, growing volume double digits in the last 13 weeks. Blue Moon non-alc continues its rapid growth, and Fever-Tree has been integrated successfully, contributing significantly to positive brand mix in the Americas.

Strong Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns

The company reaffirmed its underlying free cash flow guidance of $1.3 billion, plus or minus 10%, and has actively repurchased 9.4% of Class B shares under the $2 billion share repurchase program.

Molson Coors (TAP) Earnings, Revenues Date & History

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TAP Earnings History

Report Date	Fiscal Quarter	Forecast / EPS	Last Year's EPS	EPS YoY Change	Slides	Play Transcript
Oct 29, 2025	2025 (Q3)	1.73 / -	1.8	―	―	―
Aug 05, 2025	2025 (Q2)	1.82 / 2.05	1.92	6.77% (+0.13)
May 08, 2025	2025 (Q1)	0.78 / 0.50	0.95	-47.37% (-0.45)
Feb 13, 2025	2024 (Q4)	1.13 / 1.30	1.19	9.24% (+0.11)
Nov 07, 2024	2024 (Q3)	1.67 / 1.80	1.92	-6.25% (-0.12)
Aug 06, 2024	2024 (Q2)	1.70 / 1.92	1.78	7.87% (+0.14)
Apr 30, 2024	2024 (Q1)	0.74 / 0.95	0.54	75.93% (+0.41)
Feb 13, 2024	2023 (Q4)	1.12 / 1.19	1.3	-8.46% (-0.11)
Nov 02, 2023	2023 (Q3)	1.56 / 1.92	1.32	45.45% (+0.60)
Aug 01, 2023	2023 (Q2)	1.64 / 1.78	1.19	49.58% (+0.59)

The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.

Beat

Missed

TAP Earnings-Related Price Changes

Report Date	Price 1 Day Before	Price 1 Day After	Percentage Change
Aug 05, 2025	$48.61	$49.22	+1.25%
May 08, 2025	$56.32	$53.77	-4.53%
Feb 13, 2025	$52.56	$57.57	+9.53%
Nov 07, 2024	$55.18	$55.39	+0.38%

Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.