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Stoneco
(NASDAQ:STNE)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(11.52% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
The score is driven by solid underlying profitability and a constructive (but risk-heavy) earnings outlook, supported by a very low P/E. These positives are offset by weak technical momentum, higher leverage and cash-flow volatility, plus near-term credit quality and rate headwinds highlighted on the latest call.
Positive Factors
Scale of merchant ecosystem
A large and growing merchant base (4.7M active clients) and meaningful TPV provide durable network effects and recurring payment revenue. Scale supports cross-sell of software, banking and credit services, improving lifetime value and making competitive displacements more costly over time.
Negative Factors
Elevated credit delinquencies and provisions
Rising NPLs and high provisioning reflect persistent credit-quality stress that reduces net yield and compresses margins. Sustained elevated cost of risk forces tighter underwriting, smaller ticketing, or higher pricing, limiting growth and long-term profitability in the credit business.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale of merchant ecosystem
A large and growing merchant base (4.7M active clients) and meaningful TPV provide durable network effects and recurring payment revenue. Scale supports cross-sell of software, banking and credit services, improving lifetime value and making competitive displacements more costly over time.
Read all positive factors
Stoneco Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Payments: Total TPV
Measures the total transaction volume processed, indicating the scale of Stoneco's payment operations and its market penetration.
Measures the total transaction volume processed, indicating the scale of Stoneco's payment operations and its market penetration.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyStoneco (STNE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.77B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.87M
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.3
Beta (1Y)1.38
Revenue Growth-33.91%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees16,367
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)13.57
Shares Outstanding229,177,060
10 Day Avg. Volume3,717,161
30 Day Avg. Volume3,867,143
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.83
Price to Sales (P/S)1.53
P/FCF Ratio-760.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.07Price Target Upside30.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)10.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.04B
Stoneco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology and software solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil. The company offers financial services, including payment,...
How the Company Makes Money
StoneCo generates revenue primarily by monetizing payment processing and other financial services provided to merchants. A major revenue stream comes from acquiring/processing card and other electronic transactions (i.e., charging merchants fees t...
Stoneco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: tangible operational and financial positives (revenue growth, EPS growth, credit revenue expansion, deposit traction, strong capital returns and a healthy capital ratio) were offset by meaningful near-term challenges (elevated delinquencies and provisions, gross margin compression, elevated churn/ARPAC decline, and an adverse interest-rate backdrop). Management communicated clear corrective actions (pricing, model upgrades, tightened underwriting, product simplification, secured credit offerings and buybacks) and maintained guidance, expressing confidence in a second-half recovery, but material headwinds remain in the near term.Positive Updates
Strong Capital Returns to Shareholders
Distributed BRL 3.6 billion year-to-date representing a 27% distribution yield (includes extraordinary dividend from Linx divestiture and ~BRL 0.6 billion in buybacks); at least BRL 1.4 billion additional buybacks planned for 2026.
Negative Updates
Elevated Credit Delinquencies and Provisions
NPLs 15–90 days increased ~60 basis points QoQ; NPLs >90 days rose to 7% from 5.2% in prior quarter. Provision for credit losses BRL 166 million in Q1; coverage ratio 229%; cost of risk 21.9% — leading to higher P&L provisioning.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Capital Returns to Shareholders
Distributed BRL 3.6 billion year-to-date representing a 27% distribution yield (includes extraordinary dividend from Linx divestiture and ~BRL 0.6 billion in buybacks); at least BRL 1.4 billion additional buybacks planned for 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said full‑year 2026 guidance is unchanged and that performance should be weighted to the second half as credit revenues compound and commercial initiatives normalize retention; they remain confident they are on a trajectory to deliver within the guidance range despite Q1 headwinds. Q1 datapoints cited: total revenue BRL 3.6bn (+6% YoY), adjusted gross profit BRL 1.5bn, adjusted net income BRL 549m, adjusted basic EPS BRL 2.19, TPV BRL 137bn (+3% YoY), active clients 4.7m (+13% YoY), ARPAC BRL 247/month, credit portfolio BRL 3.2bn (+14% QoQ) with credit revenues BRL 297m (+25% QoQ) and portfolio yield 3.3%; provisions were BRL 166m (cost of risk 21.9%), NPLs >90 days 7% and coverage ratio 229%, with management targeting a gradual decline in cost of risk to the mid‑to‑high teens. They reiterated capital discipline — YTD distributions BRL 3.6bn (27% yield), ~BRL 0.6bn in buybacks already and at least BRL 1.4bn remaining — capital ratio 44% (≈29% ex‑Linx) and adjusted ROE 19%; key risks include higher‑for‑longer rates (guidance assumed ~12.5% vs ~14% today, and each 100bp move in Selic ~BRL 200–250m pretax), while they expect operating leverage to resume as one‑offs and provisions normalize and deposit funding (cost of funding ≈87% of CDI) scales.Stoneco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.97B | 14.15B | 12.74B | 11.36B | 9.02B | 4.58B |
| Gross Profit | 10.40B | 10.79B | 9.35B | 8.38B | 6.35B | 2.86B |
| EBITDA | 6.48B | 5.72B | 6.41B | 5.87B | 4.21B | 1.36B |
| Net Income | 3.47B | 2.32B | -1.52B | 1.59B | -519.42M | -1.36B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 59.13B | 62.27B | 54.81B | 48.69B | 42.25B | 42.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.08B | 5.94B | 14.55B | 12.06B | 8.93B | 8.84B |
| Total Debt | 15.65B | 17.57B | 12.90B | 5.52B | 5.55B | 8.36B |
| Total Liabilities | 47.00B | 50.44B | 42.99B | 34.02B | 29.30B | 28.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.09B | 11.78B | 11.78B | 14.62B | 12.89B | 13.54B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.40B | -28.43M | -4.89B | 437.41M | 960.44M | 2.31B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.34B | 663.28M | -3.62B | 1.65B | 1.68B | 3.61B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.03B | -1.73B | 1.59B | -845.44M | -1.87B | -2.98B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -880.30M | 912.45M | 5.04B | -148.80M | -2.81B | 1.42B |
Stoneco Technical Analysis
Positive
10.76
Price Trends
11.02
Positive
11.21
Positive
12.29
Negative
Market Momentum
0.08
Negative
52.82
Neutral
76.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STNE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.13, below the 50-day MA of 11.02, and below the 200-day MA of 12.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STNE.
Stoneco Risk Analysis
Stoneco disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stoneco reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Stoneco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $2.42B | 35.64 | 10.01% | ― | 7.19% | -36.03% | |
77 Outperform | $6.61B | 21.16 | 17.29% | ― | 15.24% | ― | |
77 Outperform | $4.45B | 22.85 | 37.04% | 1.36% | 46.60% | 66.04% | |
64 Neutral | $2.68B | 6.65 | 14.62% | 6.61% | 8.43% | 10.81% | |
62 Neutral | $2.77B | 4.25 | 29.41% | ― | -33.91% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $4.20B | 59.15 | 6.42% | ― | 28.28% | -72.43% |
* Technology Sector Average
STNE
Stoneco
11.17
0.09
0.83%
PAGS
Pagseguro Digital
9.40
1.48
18.69%
FOUR
Shift4 Payments
53.38
-28.82
-35.06%
PAYO
Payoneer
7.12
-0.30
-4.04%
PATH
UiPath
13.82
2.60
23.17%
DLO
DLocal
15.20
5.01
49.20%
Stoneco Corporate Events
StoneCo Files Q1 2026 Unaudited Results and Confirms Clean Review Opinion
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, StoneCo filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for March 2026, furnishing its unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements as of March 31, 2026. The filing incorporates these statements ...
StoneCo Q1 2026 Results Show Margin Pressure as It Returns Capital After Linx Sale
May 14, 2026
StoneCo reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 14, showing total revenue and income from continuing operations of R$3.58 billion, up 6.5% year on year but down 4% from the seasonally stronger fourth quarter, with credit products driving annual...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.