Stoneco (STNE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.62B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.88M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.27
• Revenue Growth: -25.51%
• EPS Growth: -139.31%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,239
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.55
• Shares Outstanding: 254,617,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,625,895
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,878,476
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.17
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 7.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.35
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.47
• 1Y Price Target: $19.36
• Price Target Upside: 13.68% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.54
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $15.28B

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.50 ▼(-14.86% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 11/30/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 11/30/25

Stoneco's overall stock score reflects its financial challenges, particularly in profitability and cash flow, which are significant concerns. While technical indicators suggest some bearish momentum, the earnings call provides a cautiously optimistic outlook with strong EPS growth and capital returns. However, valuation remains a key risk due to the negative P/E ratio.

Positive Factors

High Gross Margin

A ~75% gross margin indicates durable unit economics from payment processing and software. This structural profitability provides room to absorb higher funding costs, fund product and underwriting investment, and supports long-term margin recovery even if operating expenses rise.

Banking Operation Expansion

Persistent growth in active banking clients and deposits diversifies funding and revenue beyond transaction fees. Higher deposits lower reliance on wholesale funding, enable scalable lending and cross-sell, and build a recurring-revenue base that strengthens competitive position over months.

Disciplined Capital Returns

Large, consistent buybacks and capital returns reflect disciplined allocation when reinvestment opportunities are limited. This governance choice preserves shareholder value, signals management confidence in balance-sheet priorities, and maintains flexibility for future strategic deployment.

Negative Factors

Negative Cash Flow

TTM negative operating and free cash flow indicate the business currently consumes cash rather than generates it. Over the medium term this weakens the firm's ability to self-fund growth, capital returns or loan book expansion and increases dependence on external financing.

Rising Leverage and Weak ROE

Elevated leverage combined with negative ROE signals strained capital efficiency. Higher indebtedness raises interest and refinancing risk, limits strategic flexibility, and means current returns are insufficient to justify equity, increasing vulnerability if macro or funding conditions deteriorate.

Credit and Funding Pressure

A 28% jump in financial expenses alongside higher 90+ day NPLs reflects tougher funding and asset-quality trends. For a growing lending franchise, worsening credit costs and pricier funding compress net interest margins, raise provisioning needs, and undermine sustainable profitability.

Stoneco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil. It distributes its solutions, principally through proprietary Stone Hubs, which offer hyper-local sales and services; and technology and solutions to digital merchants through sales and technical personnel and software vendors, as well as sells solutions to brick-and-mortar and digital merchants through sales team. As of December 31, 2021, the company served approximately 1,766,100 clients primarily small-and-medium-sized businesses; and marketplaces, e-commerce platforms, and integrated software vendors. StoneCo Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in George Town, the Cayman Islands. StoneCo Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of HR Holdings, LLC.

How the Company Makes Money

Stoneco generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged to merchants for processing payments. The company earns a percentage of each transaction processed, which varies based on the payment method and volume. Additionally, Stoneco offers value-added services such as lending, which provides credit solutions to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), further diversifying its revenue streams. The company has established partnerships with various financial institutions and technology providers to enhance its service offerings and expand its customer base. These collaborations allow Stoneco to integrate additional financial products, contributing to its overall earnings.

Stoneco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Stoneco demonstrates revenue growth and strong gross profit margins, but faces significant profitability and cash flow challenges. The increasing leverage and negative return on equity pose risks to financial stability.

Income Statement

Stoneco's revenue has shown consistent growth, with a TTM increase of 2.62%. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -8.29% in the TTM. The gross profit margin remains strong at 74.82%, indicating efficient cost management. Despite this, the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins in previous years highlight ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.38 in the TTM, indicating higher leverage and potential risk. The return on equity is negative at -9.86%, reflecting the company's inability to generate profit from shareholders' equity. However, the equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Stoneco's cash flow situation is concerning, with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow in the TTM. The free cash flow growth rate is positive at 119.05%, but this is due to a low base effect. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	13.52B	12.74B	11.36B	9.02B	4.58B	3.17B
Gross Profit	10.19B	9.35B	8.38B	6.35B	2.86B	2.40B
EBITDA	7.65B	6.41B	5.87B	4.21B	1.36B	1.59B
Net Income	-1.14B	-1.52B	1.59B	-519.42M	-1.36B	854.07M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	58.60B	54.81B	48.69B	42.25B	42.10B	31.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.53B	14.55B	12.06B	8.93B	8.84B	11.29B
Total Debt	16.16B	12.90B	5.52B	5.55B	8.36B	6.08B
Total Liabilities	46.81B	42.99B	34.02B	29.30B	28.47B	16.76B
Stockholders Equity	11.75B	11.78B	14.62B	12.89B	13.54B	14.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.42B	-4.89B	437.41M	960.44M	2.31B	-398.62M
Operating Cash Flow	-334.38M	-3.62B	1.65B	1.68B	3.61B	56.48M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.18B	1.59B	-845.44M	-1.87B	-2.98B	-5.81B
Financing Cash Flow	3.33B	5.04B	-148.80M	-2.81B	1.42B	7.22B

Stoneco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 17.03
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STNE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.96, above the 50-day MA of 15.83, and above the 200-day MA of 15.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STNE.

Stoneco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PAGS	80 Outperform	$3.12B	8.21	14.28%	1.40%	0.58%	5.76%
DLO	73 Outperform	$3.70B	20.99	35.56%	―	22.02%	12.42%
PAYO	71 Outperform	$1.58B	23.51	10.24%	―	10.58%	-45.52%
PATH	69 Neutral	$5.72B	25.24	12.56%	―	10.05%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
FOUR	58 Neutral	$4.80B	43.80	10.48%	―	23.16%	27.38%
STNE	51 Neutral	$4.62B	-33.24	-7.53%	―	-25.51%	-139.31%

Stoneco Corporate Events

StoneCo Unveils March 2026 CEO Transition and Broader Leadership Overhaul

On January 7, 2026, StoneCo announced a major leadership reshuffle centered on the resignation of CEO Pedro Zinner, effective March 2026, for personal reasons, after a three-year tenure in which he led a strategic pivot that included divesting non-core assets such as Linx, streamlining operations, tightening capital allocation and expanding the firm’s evolution from a pure payments player into a broader financial services platform for Brazilian entrepreneurs. To maintain strategic continuity and governance stability, the board plans to nominate Zinner to join the board and, subject to shareholder approval, become its next chairman, while current CFO and Investor Relations Officer Mateus Scherer will be promoted to CEO in March 2026, treasury executive Diego Salgado will step up as CFO and Investor Relations Officer, senior executive Lia Matos will depart and continue as an advisor, and, following completion of the Linx divestiture, Sandro Bassili is expected to assume the role of chief operating officer, signaling an emphasis on internal succession, execution discipline and long-term value creation for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (STNE) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stoneco stock, see the STNE Stock Forecast page.

StoneCo Launches New R$2 Billion Share Buyback After Fully Distributing 2024 Excess Capital

On December 22, 2025, StoneCo announced that its board had approved a new share repurchase program, authorized on December 18, 2025, allowing the company to buy back up to R$2 billion of its outstanding Class A common shares with no set expiration date, replacing a prior program under which it had repurchased 21,872,021 shares at an average price of US$16.34 per share for a total of R$1.95 billion. The company also confirmed it has now fully distributed the R$3 billion in excess capital generated from its 2024 results through share buybacks, underscoring its commitment to returning surplus capital to shareholders when it lacks immediate value-accretive investment opportunities, and said it will update investors on excess capital from 2025 results in its upcoming fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release.

The most recent analyst rating on (STNE) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stoneco stock, see the STNE Stock Forecast page.

StoneCo Releases Q3 2025 Financial Statements Highlighting Discontinued Operations

StoneCo Ltd. released its unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements for the period ending September 30, 2025. The report highlights the company’s financial position, including assets classified as held for sale due to discontinued operations in the second quarter of 2025. The financial statements, reviewed by Ernst & Young, indicate no significant issues, affirming a fair view of the company’s financial status. This development may impact StoneCo’s strategic positioning as it adjusts its asset portfolio, potentially affecting stakeholders’ interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (STNE) stock is a Hold with a $18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stoneco stock, see the STNE Stock Forecast page.

StoneCo Reports Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

StoneCo Ltd. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, showing a significant increase in revenue and profitability. The company’s total revenue and income from continuing operations reached R$3,566.8 million, marking a 16.5% year-over-year increase, driven by stronger client monetization and an expanding client base. Adjusted gross profit grew by 11.7% year-over-year to R$1,604.9 million, despite higher financial expenses due to increased CDI rates. The company’s strategic repricing initiatives and growth in its loan portfolio contributed to these positive results, although they faced challenges from increased financial expenses and provisions for credit.

The most recent analyst rating on (STNE) stock is a Hold with a $18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stoneco stock, see the STNE Stock Forecast page.