Stoneco (STNE)
NASDAQ:STNE
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Stoneco
(NASDAQ:STNE)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▼(-1.89% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26
The score is held back primarily by weak/volatile financial performance (sharp revenue contraction, negative operating profitability, weak free-cash-flow conversion, and higher leverage) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partly offset by a low P/E valuation and a generally positive earnings-call outlook driven by guidance, banking/credit momentum, and significant planned capital returns, albeit with notable execution and credit-risk headwinds.
Positive Factors
Deposit Growth / Funding
Material deposit growth provides a durable, low-cost funding base that supports expansion of the credit franchise and reduces reliance on wholesale funding. Higher deposit penetration tied to MSMB TPV strengthens liquidity, underwriting capacity and net interest margin sustainability as credit scales.
Negative Factors
Revenue & Margin Volatility
Steep revenue decline and volatile, negative operating margins indicate underlying business-model instability or one-off accounting shifts that impair consistent profitability. Such swings reduce predictability of cash generation and make multi‑period planning, reinvestment and credit underwriting more difficult.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Deposit Growth / Funding
Material deposit growth provides a durable, low-cost funding base that supports expansion of the credit franchise and reduces reliance on wholesale funding. Higher deposit penetration tied to MSMB TPV strengthens liquidity, underwriting capacity and net interest margin sustainability as credit scales.
Read all positive factors
Stoneco (STNE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.81B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.19M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.3
Beta (1Y)1.33
Revenue Growth-25.51%
EPS Growth-139.31%
CountryUS
Employees7,239
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.57
Shares Outstanding254,617,000
10 Day Avg. Volume3,601,374
30 Day Avg. Volume5,191,191
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.83
Price to Sales (P/S)1.53
P/FCF Ratio-760.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap8.45
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.17Price Target Upside29.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)10.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.06B
Stoneco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil. It distributes its solutions, principally through proprietary Stone Hu...
How the Company Makes Money
Stoneco generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged to merchants for processing payments. The company earns a percentage of each transaction processed, which varies based on the payment method and volume. Additionally, Stoneco off...
Stoneco Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Payments: Total TPV
Measures the total transaction volume processed, indicating the scale of Stoneco's payment operations and its market penetration.
Measures the total transaction volume processed, indicating the scale of Stoneco's payment operations and its market penetration.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyStoneco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive operational and financial trajectory: strong EPS and adjusted gross profit growth, meaningful expansion in banking deposits and credit portfolio scale, improved ROE, and a clear capital return plan (including Linx proceeds). However, the company faces near-term execution and macro headwinds—TPV deceleration, higher churn, elevated loan-loss provisions and delinquency metrics, and deliberate increases in selling expenses to reposition the business. Management presented concrete mitigation plans (commercial initiatives, bundling, credit discipline, AI-enabled efficiency efforts) and provided conservative but constructive guidance. On balance, the positive financial results, capital returns and credit/banking momentum outweigh the near-term operational and portfolio risks, though execution will be critical to sustain the outlook.Positive Updates
Strong EPS Growth
Adjusted basic EPS for full year 2025 was BRL 9.71 per share, up 34% year-over-year and ahead of guidance (BRL 9.60). Fourth-quarter adjusted basic EPS was BRL 2.87, up 27% year-over-year, benefiting from net income growth and share repurchases.
Negative Updates
TPV Growth Deceleration and Mixed Volume Trends
MSMB TPV growth decelerated to 5.3% year-over-year in Q4. Management expects roughly flat TPV in Q1 2026 and mid-single-digit TPV growth for full-year 2026, citing a challenging macro, mix shift favoring digital merchants over Stone’s brick-and-mortar exposure, and internal onboarding/churn execution gaps.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong EPS Growth
Adjusted basic EPS for full year 2025 was BRL 9.71 per share, up 34% year-over-year and ahead of guidance (BRL 9.60). Fourth-quarter adjusted basic EPS was BRL 2.87, up 27% year-over-year, benefiting from net income growth and share repurchases.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
StoneCo guided adjusted gross profit for continuing operations of BRL 6.6–7.0 billion in 2026 (up ~4–11% vs. 2025’s BRL 6.319 billion; BRL 6.379 billion pro forma for H2 buybacks) and BRL 7.2–8.3 billion for 2027, with adjusted basic EPS of BRL 10.8–11.4 in 2026 and BRL 11.8–13.4 in 2027; the 2026 guidance embeds the announced BRL 2.0 billion buyback program (company-end share count ~248m at 2025 YE, management cited a pro forma ~225m after 2026 buybacks) but excludes the >BRL 3.0 billion Linx proceeds (the Board will decide distribution in April), assumes an effective tax rate in the mid‑teens and Selic around low‑12% end‑2026 (high‑11% for 2027), and is built on mid‑single‑digit TPV growth (Q1 flattish y/y, stronger H2) with credit and banking expected to drive margin expansion.Stoneco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 14.15B | 12.74B | 11.36B | 9.02B | 4.58B |
| Gross Profit | 10.79B | 9.35B | 8.38B | 6.35B | 2.86B |
| EBITDA | 5.72B | 6.41B | 5.87B | 4.21B | 1.36B |
| Net Income | 2.32B | -1.52B | 1.59B | -519.42M | -1.36B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 62.27B | 54.81B | 48.69B | 42.25B | 42.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.94B | 14.55B | 12.06B | 8.93B | 8.84B |
| Total Debt | 17.57B | 12.90B | 5.52B | 5.55B | 8.36B |
| Total Liabilities | 50.44B | 42.99B | 34.02B | 29.30B | 28.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.78B | 11.78B | 14.62B | 12.89B | 13.54B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -28.43M | -4.89B | 437.41M | 960.44M | 2.31B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 663.28M | -3.62B | 1.65B | 1.68B | 3.61B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.73B | 1.59B | -845.44M | -1.87B | -2.98B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 912.45M | 5.04B | -148.80M | -2.81B | 1.42B |
Stoneco Technical Analysis
Neutral
14.78
Price Trends
15.22
Negative
15.23
Negative
15.92
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.18
Negative
54.78
Neutral
61.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STNE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.99, below the 50-day MA of 15.22, and below the 200-day MA of 15.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for STNE.
Stoneco Risk Analysis
Stoneco disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stoneco reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
One of our founder shareholders holds a large amount of voting power over our common shares, and as a result has influence over certain of our activities and corporate decisions. Q4, 2022
2.
Any significant disruption to Linx's cloud hosting network infrastructure could damage its reputation, forcing it to provide credits or refunds, resulting in early termination of customer contracts or loss of customers, and adversely affect its business. Q4, 2022
3.
Links depends on telecommunications, internet and data center providers for its Software as a Service (SaaS), Cloud and on-premise infrastructure and any fluctuation or interruption in the provision of these services may impair the provision of services by Linx and affect its profitability. Q4, 2022
Stoneco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $4.91B | 24.00 | 15.32% | ― | 10.05% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $3.87B | 18.77 | 38.09% | ― | 22.02% | 12.42% | |
71 Outperform | $1.60B | 27.73 | 9.84% | ― | 10.58% | -45.52% | |
64 Neutral | $3.10B | 7.50 | 14.40% | 1.40% | 0.58% | 5.76% | |
62 Neutral | $4.51B | 36.01 | 7.54% | ― | 23.16% | 27.38% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
50 Neutral | $3.81B | 9.31 | 19.98% | ― | -25.51% | -139.31% |
* Technology Sector Average
STNE
Stoneco
14.78
2.83
23.68%
PAGS
Pagseguro Digital
10.80
2.72
33.68%
FOUR
Shift4 Payments
45.47
-32.60
-41.76%
PAYO
Payoneer
4.81
-1.62
-25.19%
PATH
UiPath
10.12
-0.46
-4.35%
DLO
DLocal
13.65
5.36
64.66%
Stoneco Corporate Events
StoneCo Files 2025 Financials and Audit Opinion Highlighting Software Divestment and Credit Risk
Mar 2, 2026
StoneCo Ltd. has filed its Form 6-K for December 2025, incorporating unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements as of December 31, 2025 into an existing share-based compensation registration, and simultaneously released its audi...
StoneCo Posts Strong 2025 Earnings as It Refocuses on Core Fintech Operations
Mar 2, 2026
StoneCo reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 2, 2026, highlighting adjusted gross profit from continuing operations of R$ 6.3 billion, up 13.5% year-on-year, and adjusted basic earnings per share of R$ 9.71, a 33.6% incr...
StoneCo Closes Linx Sale After Unconditional CADE Approval
Feb 27, 2026
StoneCo Ltd., a Brazilian-focused fintech headquartered in the Cayman Islands, has built an ecosystem that integrates payments, banking, credit, and business management software to help merchants operate and grow across physical and digital channe...
StoneCo Unveils March 2026 CEO Transition and Broader Leadership Overhaul
Jan 7, 2026
On January 7, 2026, StoneCo announced a major leadership reshuffle centered on the resignation of CEO Pedro Zinner, effective March 2026, for personal reasons, after a three-year tenure in which he led a strategic pivot that included divesting non...
StoneCo Launches New R$2 Billion Share Buyback After Fully Distributing 2024 Excess Capital
Dec 22, 2025
On December 22, 2025, StoneCo announced that its board had approved a new share repurchase program, authorized on December 18, 2025, allowing the company to buy back up to R$2 billion of its outstanding Class A common shares with no set expiration...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.