Pagseguro Digital (PAGS)
NYSE:PAGS
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Pagseguro Digital
(NYSE:PAGS)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▼(-6.75% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is driven mainly by fundamentals that are strong on growth and operating profitability but constrained by higher leverage and inconsistent cash flow. Valuation is attractive with a low P/E and some yield, while the latest earnings call was modestly positive on execution and forward EPS/credit growth despite notable macro and provisioning headwinds. Technical signals are neutral and do not add meaningful support.
Positive Factors
Banking segment monetization
PagSeguro’s banking arm shows strong, high‑margin monetization: banking gross profit surged 54% YoY with a 72% margin. Durable high margins in banking revenue support sustained profitability and cross‑sell economics as deposits and card flows scale within PagBank’s ecosystem.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt levels materially increased versus prior years, raising financial risk and reducing balance‑sheet flexibility. Elevated leverage can constrain capital allocation, increase interest burden sensitivity to rate moves, and limit the company’s ability to absorb shocks or aggressively fund credit growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Banking segment monetization
PagSeguro’s banking arm shows strong, high‑margin monetization: banking gross profit surged 54% YoY with a 72% margin. Durable high margins in banking revenue support sustained profitability and cross‑sell economics as deposits and card flows scale within PagBank’s ecosystem.
Read all positive factors
Pagseguro Digital (PAGS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.94B
Dividend Yield1.4%
Average Volume (3M)3.72M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.4
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth4.00%
EPS Growth3.63%
CountryUS
Employees6,751
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.18
Shares Outstanding170,522,030
10 Day Avg. Volume3,906,428
30 Day Avg. Volume3,721,362
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.62
Price to Book (P/B)1.07
Price to Sales (P/S)0.81
P/FCF Ratio10.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap19.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.12
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.68Price Target Upside3.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)8.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$21.41B
Pagseguro Digital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial technology solutions and services for consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and internationally. The company'...
How the Company Makes Money
PagSeguro makes money primarily by monetizing payment flows and by earning financial income from its banking/financial-services platform. Key revenue streams include: (1) Merchant acquiring and payment processing fees: the company earns merchant d...
Pagseguro Digital Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Payment Volume
Measures the total value of transactions processed, indicating the scale of operations and market penetration. A higher volume suggests strong customer engagement and potential for revenue growth.
Measures the total value of transactions processed, indicating the scale of operations and market penetration. A higher volume suggests strong customer engagement and potential for revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPagseguro Digital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid operational momentum — strong revenue growth, a notable surge in banking results, re-acceleration in TPV, growing deposits, meaningful EPS and shareholder returns, and delivery of 2025 guidance — while clearly flagging meaningful macro-driven headwinds. Rising interest rates materially increased financial costs and pressured near-term profitability and regulatory ratios (temporarily), and management gave conservative 2026 gross profit guidance while accelerating credit (which raises near-term provisions). Overall, the positives around revenue, EPS, banking profitability, funding progress and concrete guidance modestly outweigh the macro- and regulation-related negatives, which appear managed but relevant to near-term performance.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total revenues reached BRL 13.4 billion in 2025, up 16% year-over-year; payments revenue grew 9% YoY while banking revenues surged ~51% YoY. Q4 total net revenue (ex-interchange and card scheme fees) was BRL 3.5 billion, +12% YoY.
Negative Updates
Sharp Increase in Financial Costs Due to Higher Rates
Financial costs increased 39% YoY driven by a sharp rise in Brazil's SELIC (average rose from ~10.8% in 2024 to ~14.5% in 2025), which weighed on net income and margin; sequential financial costs decreased only 1%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total revenues reached BRL 13.4 billion in 2025, up 16% year-over-year; payments revenue grew 9% YoY while banking revenues surged ~51% YoY. Q4 total net revenue (ex-interchange and card scheme fees) was BRL 3.5 billion, +12% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
PagBank’s 2026 guidance calls for credit‑portfolio growth of 25–35%, gross profit expansion of 6–9%, diluted non‑GAAP EPS growth of 9–13% (calculated on the current share base, i.e., not assuming further buyback benefit), and capital expenditures of BRL 1.8–2.0 billion; management said the plan assumes a Selic path near ~12.5% year‑end (with a similar 2026 average) and incorporates higher provisions as the credit mix ramps. The guidance follows delivery of 2025 results (revenues BRL 13.4bn, +16%; banking revenues +51%; payments +9%; non‑GAAP net income BRL 678m; annualized ROAE 18.4%; capex BRL 2.3bn) and is anchored to the 2029 ambition of a BRL 25bn credit portfolio, >10% gross‑profit CAGR and >16% EPS CAGR, with management emphasizing the guidance reflects macro uncertainty and cohort‑driven, non‑linear credit growth.Pagseguro Digital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
39
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 19.36B | 18.33B | 15.68B | 15.16B | 10.30B |
| Gross Profit | 9.79B | 8.79B | 7.55B | 7.69B | 4.52B |
| EBITDA | 9.04B | 7.54B | 6.64B | 6.19B | 2.89B |
| Net Income | 2.08B | 2.12B | 1.65B | 1.50B | 1.17B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 74.37B | 72.90B | 55.11B | 45.33B | 5.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.72B | 1.42B | 6.21B | 2.93B | 462.66M |
| Total Debt | 44.34B | 40.64B | 16.38B | 12.00B | 755.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 59.74B | 58.23B | 41.87B | 33.49B | 3.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.63B | 14.67B | 13.24B | 11.84B | 1.89B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.55B | -5.74B | 2.01B | 1.41B | -853.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.57B | -3.42B | 4.00B | 3.55B | 898.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.25B | -1.83B | -2.70B | -2.18B | -1.47B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -443.29M | 3.27B | -225.99M | -1.33B | 727.24M |
Pagseguro Digital Technical Analysis
Positive
11.26
Price Trends
10.42
Positive
10.30
Positive
9.62
Positive
Market Momentum
0.30
Negative
61.75
Neutral
84.68
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAGS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.44, above the 50-day MA of 10.42, and above the 200-day MA of 9.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.68 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PAGS.
Pagseguro Digital Risk Analysis
Pagseguro Digital disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Pagseguro Digital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
If we do not effectively and accurately meet our reporting obligations regarding nonfinancial information, including any climate-related information and ESG reporting that we provide publicly, our results of operations and our business may be adversely affected. Q4, 2023
2.
Man-made or natural disasters, including extreme weather conditions due to climate change (high temperatures, floods, thunderstorms) or other unexpected events could adversely affect networks, systems, infrastructure and service continuity. Q4, 2023
Pagseguro Digital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $1.73B | 21.31 | 10.01% | ― | 7.19% | -36.03% | |
73 Outperform | $4.04B | 18.77 | 38.09% | ― | 46.60% | 66.04% | |
68 Neutral | $1.77B | 55.80 | 0.27% | ― | 23.39% | -94.62% | |
64 Neutral | $2.94B | 7.44 | 14.40% | 1.40% | 4.00% | 3.63% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $2.62B | 20.79 | 23.97% | ― | 7.22% | 6.31% | |
50 Neutral | $2.92B | 9.31 | 19.98% | ― | -30.31% | ― |
* Technology Sector Average
PAGS
Pagseguro Digital
10.09
1.06
11.76%
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Pagseguro Digital Corporate Events
PagSeguro Digital Board Approves US$0.26 Cash Dividend for June 2026 Payout
Mar 13, 2026
On March 13, 2026, PagSeguro Digital Ltd. announced that its board of directors approved a cash dividend of US$0.26 per common share. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on June 1, 2026 to shareholders of record as of April 22, 2026, with the pay...
PagSeguro Digital posts higher Q4 2025 revenue and non-GAAP ROE as PagBank leans on banking and efficiency
Mar 4, 2026
PagBank reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 4, 2026, showing it continues to expand in Brazil’s competitive fintech and acquiring market despite a challenging macro backdrop. The company grew total clients to 34 m...
PagSeguro Digital Gains Clean Audit and Confirms Effective 2025 Internal Controls
Mar 4, 2026
PagSeguro Digital reported that its management has assessed the company’s internal control over financial reporting and concluded that these controls were effective as of December 31, 2025, in line with the COSO 2013 framework. The report, s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.