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Pagseguro Digital
(NYSE:PAGS)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▲(3.26% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is supported primarily by very attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a constructive earnings-call outlook with reaffirmed guidance and improving EPS. It is held back by weaker financial quality signals—higher leverage and uneven cash-flow conversion—and bearish technicals with the stock trading below major moving averages.
Positive Factors
High Profitability Margins
Sustained high TTM margins indicate durable unit economics across acquiring and banking lines. Strong gross and operating margins create structural capacity to fund investments, absorb rate or loss shocks, and support shareholder returns even if top-line growth softens.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
A materially higher debt-to-equity ratio increases funding and refinancing sensitivity. In a higher‑rate or tighter funding environment, elevated leverage can magnify earnings volatility, limit strategic flexibility, and raise the cost of scaling the credit franchise over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability Margins
Sustained high TTM margins indicate durable unit economics across acquiring and banking lines. Strong gross and operating margins create structural capacity to fund investments, absorb rate or loss shocks, and support shareholder returns even if top-line growth softens.
Read all positive factors
Pagseguro Digital Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Payment Volume
Measures the total value of transactions processed, indicating the scale of operations and market penetration. A higher volume suggests strong customer engagement and potential for revenue growth.
Measures the total value of transactions processed, indicating the scale of operations and market penetration. A higher volume suggests strong customer engagement and potential for revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPagseguro Digital (PAGS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.68B
Dividend Yield6.43%
Average Volume (3M)3.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.6
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth8.43%
EPS Growth10.81%
CountryUS
Employees7,044
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySpecialty Business Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.36
Shares Outstanding157,057,270
10 Day Avg. Volume2,891,645
30 Day Avg. Volume3,119,027
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.63
Price to Book (P/B)1.07
Price to Sales (P/S)0.81
P/FCF Ratio10.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.38Price Target Upside23.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)8.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$21.15B
Pagseguro Digital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of financial and payment solutions for consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and internationally. It pr...
How the Company Makes Money
PagSeguro makes money mainly by monetizing payment flows and related financial services within its ecosystem. (1) Payment acquiring and processing fees: The company earns revenue when merchants process card and other payments through PagSeguro’s a...
Pagseguro Digital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The quarter shows solid execution on strategic priorities: strong credit and deposit growth, improved customer engagement, operating leverage, EPS accretion and meaningful shareholder returns. Those positives are tempered by macro-driven financial cost pressures (higher SELIC), limited gross profit expansion, payments yield compression and a rise in total losses tied to portfolio mix. Management expects rate cuts and continued efficiency initiatives to alleviate headwinds, and they have reasserted guidance and long-term targets.Positive Updates
Credit Portfolio Expansion
Total credit portfolio reached BRL 51 billion, up 11% year-over-year, driven by a 36% increase in total loans; working capital loans surged ~190% year-over-year and now represent ~10% of the portfolio.
Negative Updates
Pressure from Higher Interest Rates
Financial costs rose due to a higher SELIC rate (management cited a ~1.9 percentage-point increase year-over-year), pressuring gross profit and leading to higher financial expenses despite mitigation efforts.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Credit Portfolio Expansion
Total credit portfolio reached BRL 51 billion, up 11% year-over-year, driven by a 36% increase in total loans; working capital loans surged ~190% year-over-year and now represent ~10% of the portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance and its 2029 ambition, expecting continued credit acceleration and gross‑profit improvement as SELIC cuts ease; Q1 finished above the credit range with expanded credit portfolio at BRL 51.0bn (+11% YoY) and total loans at BRL 5.0bn (+36% YoY), led by working‑capital loans up ~190% YoY (now ~10% of the portfolio). Financials give scope for the guidance: revenue excluding interchange BRL 3.3bn (+6.4% YoY), gross profit BRL 1.9bn (+~1% YoY), recurring non‑GAAP net income BRL 575mn (+4% YoY) and diluted non‑GAAP EPS +12% YoY (near the top of the annual range); ROAE was 15.8% (+~80bps YoY). Capital and funding metrics underpin the plan—managerial CET1 24.1% (down >4pp QoQ) with a medium‑term Basel target of 18–22%; deposits BRL 42bn (+23% YoY), total funding ~BRL 47bn (+15% YoY), loan‑to‑fund ratio improved to 109% (from 114%); deposit APY 83.9% and checking avg. remuneration 38.6% (down ~10pp YoY). Shareholder returns remain a priority: LTM returns ~BRL 2.4bn (~16% yield) and management committed ≥BRL 1.4bn in dividends this year (including BRL 400mn in June, USD 0.26/sh), and expects to deliver full‑year CapEx within its commitment.Pagseguro Digital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.80B | 19.36B | 18.33B | 15.68B | 15.16B | 10.30B |
| Gross Profit | 10.13B | 9.79B | 8.79B | 7.55B | 7.69B | 4.52B |
| EBITDA | 9.55B | 9.40B | 7.71B | 6.64B | 6.02B | 3.05B |
| Net Income | 2.14B | 2.08B | 2.12B | 1.65B | 1.50B | 1.17B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 74.26B | 74.37B | 72.90B | 55.11B | 45.33B | 5.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.67B | 6.72B | 1.42B | 6.21B | 2.93B | 462.66M |
| Total Debt | 45.69B | 44.34B | 40.64B | 16.38B | 12.00B | 755.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 59.92B | 59.74B | 58.23B | 41.87B | 33.49B | 3.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.34B | 14.63B | 14.67B | 13.24B | 11.84B | 1.89B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 359.93M | 1.55B | -5.74B | 2.01B | 1.41B | -853.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.88B | 2.57B | -3.42B | 4.00B | 3.55B | 898.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.08B | -2.25B | -1.83B | -2.70B | -2.18B | -1.47B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -90.12M | -443.29M | 3.27B | -225.99M | -1.33B | 727.24M |
Pagseguro Digital Technical Analysis
Negative
9.20
Price Trends
9.13
Positive
9.52
Negative
9.68
Negative
Market Momentum
0.10
Positive
50.21
Neutral
37.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAGS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.41, above the 50-day MA of 9.13, and below the 200-day MA of 9.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PAGS.
Pagseguro Digital Risk Analysis
Pagseguro Digital disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Pagseguro Digital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
If we do not effectively and accurately meet our reporting obligations regarding nonfinancial information, including any climate-related information and ESG reporting that we provide publicly, our results of operations and our business may be adversely affected. Q4, 2023
2.
Man-made or natural disasters, including extreme weather conditions due to climate change (high temperatures, floods, thunderstorms) or other unexpected events could adversely affect networks, systems, infrastructure and service continuity. Q4, 2023
Pagseguro Digital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $719.75M | 19.69 | 15.09% | 2.34% | 0.13% | 49.40% | |
78 Outperform | $500.92M | 46.98 | 30.13% | ― | 43.38% | 66.05% | |
72 Outperform | $2.95B | 25.15 | 6.60% | ― | 14.32% | 22.34% | |
71 Outperform | $1.95B | 66.21 | 4.08% | ― | 32.49% | 539.48% | |
71 Outperform | $14.44B | 23.94 | 27.43% | ― | 12.24% | -7.61% | |
64 Neutral | $2.68B | 6.65 | 14.62% | 6.61% | 8.43% | 10.81% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
PAGS
Pagseguro Digital
9.36
1.54
19.63%
CASS
Cass Information Systems
58.09
17.97
44.79%
CBZ
CBIZ
54.49
-7.36
-11.90%
PAYS
Paysign
12.40
6.50
110.17%
FLYW
Flywire
18.20
5.87
47.61%
WSE
Wise PLC Class A
12.40
-1.70
-12.03%
Pagseguro Digital Corporate Events
PagSeguro Digital Shareholders Approve 2025 Results, Incentive Plan and Board at May 27 AGM
May 29, 2026
At its annual general meeting held in São Paulo on May 27, 2026, PagSeguro Digital’s shareholders approved the audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025 and ratified all actions taken by directors an...
PagSeguro Digital Reports Larger Balance Sheet in Q1 2026 Unaudited Results
May 12, 2026
PagSeguro Digital disclosed its unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements for March 31, 2026, covering the three-month periods ended March 31, 2026 and 2025. The filing shows total assets of R$75.2 billion, up from R$74.4 billi...
PagSeguro Digital Posts Q1 2026 Profit Growth as Credit Portfolio Surges 36%
May 12, 2026
PagSeguro Digital’s PagBank unit reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 12, showing modest top-line growth but continued strategic progress in scaling its integrated banking and credit platform. Consolidated revenue excluding interchange...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.