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Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)
NASDAQ:SRPT

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) AI Stock Analysis

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SRSarepta Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:SRPT)
69Neutral
Sarepta Therapeutics demonstrates strong revenue growth and a return to profitability, which are significant strengths. However, high leverage and cash flow challenges are notable risks. The technical analysis indicates bearish trends, while the valuation suggests a high reliance on future growth prospects. The positive earnings call provides optimism for future performance, driven by strong guidance and pipeline advancements.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Sarepta's Elevidys sales were $384.2M, showing a 112% increase quarter over quarter.
Financial Performance
Sarepta reported its third cash flow positive quarter and ended with cash of approximately $1.5 billion.
Negative Factors
Market Sentiment
The price target was lowered from $195 to $190 due to higher spending assumptions and share count.

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Sarepta Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSarepta Therapeutics, Inc. is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, which is engaged in the discovery and development of therapeutics for the treatment of rare diseases. The company was founded on July 22, 1980 and is headquartered in Cambridge, MA.
How the Company Makes MoneySarepta Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the sales of its approved therapies for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The company has successfully commercialized three exon-skipping therapies—Exondys 51, Vyondys 53, and Amondys 45—each targeting specific mutations in the DMD gene, allowing for a tailored approach to treatment. Additionally, Sarepta engages in collaboration and licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, which provide both upfront payments and potential milestone payments tied to developmental, regulatory, and sales achievements. These strategic partnerships enhance Sarepta's research capabilities and expand its pipeline of potential therapies, further contributing to its revenue streams.

Sarepta Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Sarepta Therapeutics has shown substantial growth in revenue and a turnaround in profitability, highlighting strong performance in the income statement. However, the balance sheet reflects high leverage, and cash flow challenges persist despite some improvements. The company's ability to maintain profitability while improving cash flow will be critical for future stability.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Sarepta Therapeutics has demonstrated significant revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from $380.8M in 2019 to $1.9B in 2024. The gross profit margin is strong, consistently at 100% in 2024, indicating effective cost management. The company turned profitable in 2024 with a net profit margin of 12.37%, a significant improvement from the previous losses. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have fluctuated, with a positive 11.47% and 11.47% respectively in 2024, suggesting better operational efficiency recently.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.87 in 2024, indicating a moderate level of leverage. The return on equity has improved to 15.39% in 2024, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. Equity ratio stands at 38.55%, which is reasonable but suggests that a significant portion of assets is financed through debt.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
While Sarepta Therapeutics has shown improvement in free cash flow, it remains negative in 2024 at -$342.7M, though improved from -$588.3M in 2023. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating challenges in converting income into cash. However, the recent reduction in net debt is a positive indicator of improving financial health.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.90B1.24B933.01M701.89M540.10M
Gross Profit
1.58B1.09B793.02M604.84M476.72M
EBIT
218.08M-267.82M-536.20M-449.71M-564.16M
EBITDA
316.89M-439.20M-582.12M-306.08M-453.38M
Net Income Common Stockholders
235.24M-535.98M-703.49M-418.78M-554.13M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.35B1.68B1.99B2.12B1.94B
Total Assets
3.96B3.26B3.13B3.15B2.98B
Total Debt
1.33B1.40B1.62B1.14B1.07B
Net Debt
226.59M968.38M650.58M-977.48M-429.79M
Total Liabilities
2.44B2.41B2.74B2.22B2.22B
Stockholders Equity
1.53B859.34M384.95M928.01M761.76M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-342.74M-588.34M-356.17M-481.66M25.26M
Operating Cash Flow
-205.79M-500.99M-325.35M-443.17M107.47M
Investing Cash Flow
755.56M-165.80M-1.05B495.41M-121.72M
Financing Cash Flow
124.81M125.00M232.51M561.57M682.32M

Sarepta Therapeutics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price107.67
Price Trends
50DMA
114.98
Negative
100DMA
119.02
Negative
200DMA
126.94
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.07
Negative
RSI
47.00
Neutral
STOCH
40.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SRPT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 107.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 108.03, below the 50-day MA of 114.98, and below the 200-day MA of 126.94, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SRPT.

Sarepta Therapeutics Risk Analysis

Sarepta Therapeutics disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sarepta Therapeutics reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Sarepta Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$10.72B21.8123.13%18.49%176.71%
77
Outperform
$13.45B32.378.05%17.35%151.40%
69
Neutral
$9.98B45.1719.71%52.97%
64
Neutral
$124.86B-3.15%11.64%-114.72%
56
Neutral
$4.09B33.08%-13.97%43.51%
54
Neutral
$3.80B-214.50%29.01%23.93%
49
Neutral
$7.05B0.34-55.09%2.46%25.27%-3.43%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SRPT
Sarepta Therapeutics
107.67
-12.64
-10.51%
BMRN
BioMarin Pharmaceutical
71.19
-15.58
-17.96%
EXEL
Exelixis
38.65
16.27
72.70%
VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
491.64
79.79
19.37%
PTCT
PTC Therapeutics
51.93
21.05
68.17%
RARE
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical
40.87
-10.39
-20.27%

Sarepta Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 26, 2025 | % Change Since: 0.76% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reflects a highly positive performance with record-breaking revenue growth, successful ELEVIDYS launch, and strong guidance for 2025. Although there are challenges related to insurance and manufacturing, the overall outlook remains robust due to strategic advancements and pipeline progress.
Highlights
Record-Breaking Revenue Growth
For the fourth quarter, net product revenue was $638 million, growing at 75% over the same quarter prior year. Full year net product revenue stood at $1.8 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 56%.
ELEVIDYS Gene Therapy Success
ELEVIDYS sales stood at $384 million in Q4, representing a 112% increase over the prior sequential quarter. Achieved over $1 billion in sales since initial approval, representing less than 5% of the on-label addressable opportunity.
Profitability and Cash Flow
Sarepta became sustainably profitable and cash flow positive in 2024.
Strong Guidance for 2025
2025 net product revenue guidance is between $2.9 billion and $3.1 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 70%.
Pipeline Advancements
Significant progress with LGMD franchise, including potential approvals over the next three years. Closed the Arrowhead transaction, adding siRNA programs to the pipeline.
Lowlights
Insurance and Reimbursement Challenges
Despite progress, challenges remain in navigating payer policies for ELEVIDYS, requiring detailed logistics and time to achieve patient access.
Manufacturing Transition Required
Plan to transition to suspension manufacturing to improve COGS, indicating current manufacturing may not be optimal.
Company Guidance
During Sarepta Therapeutics' fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results conference call, the company provided optimistic guidance for 2025, projecting net product revenue between $2.9 billion and $3.1 billion. This represents a 70% year-over-year growth, with ELEVIDYS expected to contribute over two-thirds of the revenue, reflecting a growth rate of over 160%. The call highlighted the success of ELEVIDYS, which achieved fourth-quarter sales of $384 million, marking a 112% increase over the previous sequential quarter, and surpassed $1 billion in sales since its initial approval in 2023. Sarepta also noted their expectation to achieve over $16 billion in cumulative operating income and over $13 billion in free cash flow by the end of 2030. The company is making strides in its LGMD franchise, anticipating three potential approvals in the next three years, and plans to transition to suspension manufacturing to improve cost of goods sold.

Sarepta Therapeutics Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sarepta Therapeutics Announces Leadership Change and Equity Deal
Neutral
Nov 26, 2024

Sarepta Therapeutics is undergoing a leadership change as Ryan Brown steps down, with Cristin Rothfuss set to succeed him. Concurrently, Sarepta is strengthening its financial position through a significant $325 million equity transaction with Arrowhead, purchasing over 11 million shares. This move includes lock-up and standstill provisions, limiting Sarepta’s trading and acquisition activities for specified periods, highlighting strategic stock management in the biotech sector.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.