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Mesoblast Ltd (MESO)
NASDAQ:MESO
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Mesoblast
(NASDAQ:MESO)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(2.43%Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial Position
Mesoblast is funded well into 2026, potentially extending further depending on the launch trajectory of Ryoncil in pediatric steroid refractory acute graft vs. host disease.
Market Opportunity
The potential pricing for Ryoncil in excess of $1.5M for a full course supports a significant market opportunity, validating the view that the GvHD opportunity alone could support Mesoblast's current valuation.
Regulatory Approval
The FDA supports an accelerated approval pathway for Revascor after appraising the totality of data, including significant improvements on endpoints like mortality.
Negative Factors
Regulatory Challenges
FDA's recent reversal supports Mesoblast's filing for accelerated approval in Class IV patients with LVAD devices, with a confirmatory study targeting mortality in Class II–III patients.
Mesoblast (MESO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.02B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)271.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.66
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees73
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength40
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding127,996,720
10 Day Avg. Volume389,168
30 Day Avg. Volume271,555
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio5.69
Price to Book (P/B)2.71
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-66.27
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue62.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-67.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-6.99
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.00Price Target Upside92.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
Mesoblast Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMesoblast Limited is a global leader in regenerative medicine, specializing in the development of innovative allogeneic cellular medicines. The company operates primarily within the biotechnology sector, focusing on the research, development, and commercialization of cellular therapies. Mesoblast's core products are based on its proprietary mesenchymal lineage cell technology platform, which aims to address significant unmet medical needs across various therapeutic areas, including inflammatory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and orthopedic disorders.
How the Company Makes MoneyMesoblast generates revenue through licensing agreements, milestone payments, and royalties related to its proprietary regenerative medicine products. The company collaborates with other pharmaceutical companies to develop and commercialize its cellular therapies, thereby receiving upfront payments and potential milestone payments based on the achievement of specific regulatory and sales milestones. Additionally, Mesoblast earns royalties from sales of its products once they are successfully brought to market. The company's revenue model is heavily influenced by its strategic partnerships, clinical trial progress, and regulatory approvals, which are critical factors in advancing its product pipeline and driving future earnings.
Mesoblast Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 28, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 42.39%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive outlook with significant advancements including the FDA approval of RYONCIL, successful fundraising, and promising clinical trial results. However, the company faces some challenges such as non-cash balance sheet impacts and ongoing trial enrollments.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
FDA Approval and Launch of RYONCIL
RYONCIL, a mesenchymal stromal cell therapy, has been FDA approved as the first off-the-shelf therapy for children aged two months and older with steroid-refractory acute GVHD. The product is set to be made available in March.
Successful Private Placement
The company successfully completed a global private placement, raising USD 161 million, increasing the pro forma cash balance to approximately USD 200 million.
Reduction in Operating Cash Spend
Net operating cash spend was USD 20.7 million for the first half of FY 2025, a 22% reduction from the first half of FY 2024.
High Response Rates in Clinical Trials
In Phase 3 trials, RYONCIL delivered high overall response rates of 70% at day 28 for children with severe disease, significantly higher than other therapies.
Potential for Label Expansion
Strategies are in place to expand RYONCIL’s use to include inflammatory bowel disease and adult GVHD, with ongoing trials showing promise.
Negative Updates
Non-Cash Adjustments Leading to Loss
Non-cash balance sheet adjustments drove a loss after tax of USD 47.9 million for the half year.
Challenges in Enrollment for Phase III Trials
The company is actively working to increase enrollment rates for the Phase III trial for chronic low back pain, indicating current challenges in participant recruitment.
Dependency on FDA Guidance
The approval pathway for Revascor in ischemic heart failure depends on further FDA meetings to clarify study designs and confirmatory trial requirements.
Company Guidance
In the recent call, Mesoblast provided comprehensive guidance on multiple financial and operational metrics. For the fiscal period ended December 31, 2024, the company reported a cash balance of USD 38 million, with a pro forma cash of approximately USD 200 million following a successful USD 161 million global private placement. Net operating cash spend was USD 20.7 million, marking a 22% reduction from the previous year. The FDA's approval of RYONCIL resulted in a USD 23 million provision reversal, now recognized as inventory on the balance sheet. The company's loss after tax stood at USD 47.9 million, influenced by non-cash balance sheet adjustments post-FDA approval. RYONCIL's wholesale acquisition cost is USD 194,000 per infusion, with a potential addressable market in the U.S. of 375 new pediatric patients annually for steroid-refractory acute GVHD. The launch strategy includes targeting high-volume transplant centers, with a sales force of nine key account managers. For the chronic low back pain trial, the company plans to expand site numbers from 15 to 40, anticipating ramped-up enrollment and a potential U.S. partnership for distribution.Mesoblast Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mesoblast faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues, persistent losses, and negative cash flows. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage, but the inability to generate positive cash flow and profits is concerning.Income Statement
Mesoblast's income statement shows declining revenue over recent years, with a significant drop from 2020 to 2024. The company has been consistently operating at a loss, with negative gross profit margins and net profit margins. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating operational inefficiencies and challenges in managing costs relative to revenue.35
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting a manageable level of leverage. However, the equity ratio is relatively stable, indicating that the company is primarily financed through equity. The return on equity is negative due to consistent net losses, which is a concern for profitability and shareholder returns.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals negative operating and free cash flows, which have been persistent over the years. The company has been relying on financing activities to support its cash position. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting challenges in converting revenue into cash flow.40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 | Jun 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.67M | 5.90M | 7.50M | 10.21M | 7.46M | 32.16M |
| Gross Profit | -22.57M | -35.17M | -47.42M | -53.36M | -78.28M | -49.34M |
| EBITDA | -49.42M | -56.08M | -58.55M | -76.57M | -107.60M | -75.41M |
| Net Income | -103.35M | -87.96M | -81.89M | -91.35M | -98.81M | -77.94M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 653.32M | 669.15M | 669.41M | 662.14M | 744.72M | 733.60M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 38.03M | 62.56M | 70.92M | 60.03M | 136.88M | 129.33M |
| Total Debt | 126.11M | 118.92M | 116.50M | 106.91M | 105.50M | 99.31M |
| Total Liabilities | 192.06M | 188.80M | 167.58M | 165.10M | 163.32M | 184.28M |
| Stockholders Equity | 461.26M | 480.36M | 501.84M | 497.04M | 581.40M | 549.33M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -21.07M | -48.79M | -63.58M | -66.01M | -108.33M | -58.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -20.66M | -48.46M | -63.27M | -65.78M | -106.68M | -56.37M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 327.50K | -97.00K | -194.00K | -232.00K | -1.65M | -3.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.58M | 40.25M | 74.50M | -9.87M | 114.47M | 137.04M |
Mesoblast Technical Analysis
Positive
15.62
Price Trends
11.32
Positive
11.94
Positive
12.75
Positive
Market Momentum
0.39
Negative
77.09
Negative
91.21
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MESO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.14, above the 50-day MA of 11.32, and above the 200-day MA of 12.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.09 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MESO.
Mesoblast Risk Analysis
Mesoblast disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mesoblast reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mesoblast Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $1.82B | ― | -5.78% | ― | 25.50% | 64.63% | |
60 Neutral | $3.24B | ― | -32.17% | ― | -25.85% | -23.89% | |
56 Neutral | $1.43B | ― | -422.66% | ― | 49.29% | 44.52% | |
52 Neutral | $2.02B | ― | -21.26% | ― | ― | ― | |
52 Neutral | $7.35B | -0.07 | -63.71% | 2.81% | 16.17% | 0.03% | |
43 Neutral | $2.00B | ― | -23.34% | ― | ― | -14.19% | |
39 Underperform | $1.47B | ― | -39.49% | ― | ― | -20.03% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MESO
Mesoblast
15.62
8.07
106.89%
TVTX
Travere Therapeutics
16.11
6.46
66.94%
IRON
Disc Medicine
57.77
11.81
25.70%
KYMR
Kymera Therapeutics
46.18
3.71
8.74%
IMCR
Immunocore Holdings
36.31
-2.97
-7.56%
VERA
Vera Therapeutics
23.05
-11.04
-32.38%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.