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Mesoblast (MESO)
:MESO
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Mesoblast
(NASDAQ:MESO)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(21.95% Upside)
Positive Factors
FDA Approval Pathway
Mesoblast announced FDA alignment on its approval pathway for Revascor in end-stage ischemic heart failure implanted with an LVAD, positioning for approval.
Market Opportunity
The potential pricing for Ryoncil in excess of $1.5M for a full course supports a significant market opportunity, validating the view that the GvHD opportunity alone could support Mesoblast's current valuation.
Product Launch
Ryoncil launch approaching with Mesoblast preparing to launch it in the coming weeks, initially focusing on the top 45 centers that represent 77% of volume, having sufficient inventory to support multiple years of sales.
Negative Factors
Financial Requirements
Mesoblast announced a private placement raising A$260M, which should support commercialization of Ryoncil in the US while funding its development programs.
Mesoblast (MESO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.69B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)179.39K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.37
Revenue Growth192.01%
EPS Growth4.89%
CountryUS
Employees73
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength51
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.44
Shares Outstanding127,996,720
10 Day Avg. Volume165,965
30 Day Avg. Volume179,386
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue238.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-59.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-27.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.00Price Target Upside128.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
Mesoblast Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMesoblast Limited, a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes allogeneic cellular medicines in the United States, Australia, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland. The company offers products in the areas of cardiovascular, spine orthopedic disorder, oncology, hematology, and immune-mediated and inflammatory diseases. Its proprietary regenerative medicine technology platform is based on specialized cells known as mesenchymal lineage cells. The company's products under the Phase III clinical trials include remestemcel-L for the treatment of steroid refractory acute graft versus host disease, as well as acute respiratory distress syndrome due to COVID-19 infection; Rexlemestrocel-L to treat advanced chronic heart failure; and MPC-06-ID for chronic low back pain due to degenerative disc disease. It is also developing MPC-300-IV for the treatment of biologic refractory rheumatoid arthritis diabetic nephropathy. The company has strategic partnerships with Tasly Pharmaceutical Group to offer MPC-150-IM for heart failure and MPC-25-IC for heart attacks in China; JCR Pharmaceuticals Co. Ltd. for the treatment of wound healing in patients with epidermolysis bullosa; and Grünenthal to develops and commercializes cell therapy for the treatment of chronic low back pain. Mesoblast Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyMesoblast generates revenue through licensing agreements, milestone payments, and royalties related to its proprietary regenerative medicine products. The company collaborates with other pharmaceutical companies to develop and commercialize its cellular therapies, thereby receiving upfront payments and potential milestone payments based on the achievement of specific regulatory and sales milestones. Additionally, Mesoblast earns royalties from sales of its products once they are successfully brought to market. The company's revenue model is heavily influenced by its strategic partnerships, clinical trial progress, and regulatory approvals, which are critical factors in advancing its product pipeline and driving future earnings.
Mesoblast Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call illustrated significant growth and successful product launch achievements, particularly with Ryoncil's market penetration and FDA approval. However, increased operational expenses and revaluation-related losses presented financial challenges. Overall, the company's positive strides in market access and regulatory feedback indicate strong potential for future growth.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth
Revenue from cell therapy products reached $17.2 million, up 191% from the prior year, driven by the successful launch of Ryoncil.
Successful Launch of Ryoncil
Ryoncil, the first and only FDA-approved MSC therapy, launched successfully with 32 transplant centers onboarded and coverage for over 250 million lives in the U.S.
Strong Market Access for Ryoncil
Ryoncil is covered by insurance plans representing over 250 million lives, with Medicaid coverage in all states as of July 1.
Promising FDA Feedback for Heart Failure Therapy
FDA indicated support for an accelerated approval pathway for Revascor in heart failure, based on existing data and a planned confirmatory trial.
J-Code Issued for Ryoncil
A specific J-Code for Ryoncil is set to go into effect on October 1, allowing for more efficient billing and reimbursement processes.
Negative Updates
Increased Expenses
Selling, general, and administrative expenses increased by $14.3 million to $39.3 million, related to commercial team build and product launch.
Revaluation Losses
Revaluation of contingent consideration resulted in a loss of $14.9 million, and a warrant remeasurement loss of $5 million due to FDA approval-related share price appreciation.
Company Guidance
During the Mesoblast financial results call for the full year ended June 30, 2025, CEO Dr. Silviu Itescu provided comprehensive guidance on the company's performance and future outlook. The FDA-approved product, Ryoncil, generated $17.2 million in revenue, marking a 191% increase from the previous year, with $13.2 million in gross sales in the final quarter alone. The company onboarded 32 transplant centers and aims to cover the top 45 by the end of the quarter, with coverage extending to over 250 million insured lives in the U.S. Mesoblast's financials showed $162 million in cash on hand, with operating expenses including a $39.3 million increase due to the commercial launch and a $14.9 million non-cash revaluation loss. The company is preparing for further label expansion in adult GvHD and inflammatory bowel disease, with ongoing trials for their second-generation technology, rexlemestrocel-L, targeting heart failure and chronic low back pain, both representing over $10 billion in addressable market opportunities.Mesoblast Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mesoblast is experiencing significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and persistent losses. The company has negative cash flows and relies heavily on financing activities. Although the balance sheet shows manageable leverage, the negative return on equity and inability to generate profits are major concerns.Income Statement
Mesoblast's income statement shows declining revenue over recent years, with a significant drop from 2020 to 2024. The company has been consistently operating at a loss, with negative gross profit margins and net profit margins. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating operational inefficiencies and challenges in managing costs relative to revenue.35
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting a manageable level of leverage. However, the equity ratio is relatively stable, indicating that the company is primarily financed through equity. The return on equity is negative due to consistent net losses, which is a concern for profitability and shareholder returns.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals negative operating and free cash flows, which have been persistent over the years. The company has been relying on financing activities to support its cash position. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting challenges in converting revenue into cash flow.40
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.90M | 7.50M | 10.21M | 7.46M | 32.16M |
| Gross Profit | -35.17M | -47.42M | -53.36M | -78.28M | -49.34M |
| EBITDA | -56.08M | -58.55M | -76.57M | -107.60M | -75.41M |
| Net Income | -87.96M | -81.89M | -91.35M | -98.81M | -77.94M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 669.15M | 669.41M | 662.14M | 744.72M | 733.60M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 62.56M | 70.92M | 60.03M | 136.88M | 129.33M |
| Total Debt | 118.92M | 116.50M | 106.91M | 105.50M | 99.31M |
| Total Liabilities | 188.80M | 167.58M | 165.10M | 163.32M | 184.28M |
| Stockholders Equity | 480.36M | 501.84M | 497.04M | 581.40M | 549.33M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -48.79M | -63.58M | -66.01M | -108.33M | -58.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -48.46M | -63.27M | -65.78M | -106.68M | -56.37M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -97.00K | -194.00K | -232.00K | -1.65M | -3.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 40.25M | 74.50M | -9.87M | 114.47M | 137.04M |
Mesoblast Technical Analysis
Negative
13.12
Price Trends
13.82
Negative
12.56
Positive
13.72
Negative
Market Momentum
0.11
Positive
36.14
Neutral
33.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MESO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.31, below the 50-day MA of 13.82, and below the 200-day MA of 13.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MESO.
Mesoblast Risk Analysis
Mesoblast disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mesoblast reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mesoblast Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $1.62B | ― | -5.38% | ― | 26.90% | 62.72% | |
56 Neutral | $2.95B | ― | -33.26% | ― | -49.51% | -44.09% | |
52 Neutral | $1.69B | ― | -18.96% | ― | 192.01% | 4.89% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.33 | -41.57% | 2.23% | 23.26% | -2.03% | |
49 Neutral | $1.56B | ― | -705.73% | ― | 87.94% | 57.84% | |
43 Neutral | $2.07B | ― | -26.36% | ― | ― | -22.19% | |
39 Underperform | $1.38B | ― | -54.83% | ― | ― | -62.51% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
MESO
Mesoblast
13.12
6.17
88.78%
TVTX
Travere Therapeutics
18.15
8.55
89.06%
IRON
Disc Medicine
61.40
11.79
23.77%
KYMR
Kymera Therapeutics
40.69
-5.63
-12.15%
IMCR
Immunocore Holdings
32.26
-3.82
-10.59%
VERA
Vera Therapeutics
22.61
-15.75
-41.06%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.