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Travere Therapeutics (TVTX)
NASDAQ:TVTX

Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) AI Stock Analysis

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Travere Therapeutics

(NASDAQ:TVTX)

44Neutral
Travere Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges with negative earnings and cash flows, impacting its stability. While recent FDA approvals and product sales growth are promising, the high leverage and operational inefficiencies weigh heavily. Technical indicators suggest some volatility. Overall, the stock is risky due to financial instability despite potential growth opportunities.
Positive Factors
Competitive Advantage
Filspari on strong footing versus atrasentan, with PROTECT trial showing better proteinuria reduction and more comprehensive data at launch.
Market Potential
Potential approval in focal segmental glomerulosclerosis/FSGS could open Filspari up to another large market, with virtually zero competition.
Regulatory Approval
FDA opens the door for a Filspari sNDA filing, with existing data from the DUPLEX and DUET studies providing additional context.
Negative Factors
Market Barriers
Filspari’s monthly monitoring is a significant barrier to uptake, particularly for those in rural or community settings.
Regulatory Requirements
Concerns over its positioning due to the requirement of REMS for Filspari, which has slowed uptake.
Safety Concerns
Filspari carries a black box warning for hepatotoxicity and a monitoring requirement.

Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Travere Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTravere Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the identification, development, commercialization, and delivering of therapies for the treatment of rare diseases. Its marketed products include Chenodal, a synthetic oral form of chenodeoxycholic acid for the treatment of radiolucent stones in gallbladders; Cholbam, a cholic acid capsule to treat pediatric and adult patients with bile acid synthesis disorders due to single enzyme defects, as well as for adjunctive treatment of patients with peroxisomal disorders; and Thiola and Thiola EC, a tiopronin tablet for the treatment of homozygous cystinuria. The company's product candidates also consist of Sparsentan, which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis and immunoglobulin A nephropathy; and TVT-058, a novel investigational human enzyme replacement candidate, which is in Phase I/II clinical trials for the treatment of classical homocystinuria. It has a cooperative research and development agreement with National Institutes of Health's National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences and patient advocacy organizations, CDG Care, and Alagille Syndrome Alliance for the identification of potential small molecule therapeutics for NGLY1 deficiency and Alagille syndrome. The company was formerly known as Retrophin, Inc. and changed its name to Travere Therapeutics, Inc. in November 2020. Travere Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyTravere Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the sale of its commercial products, which include FDA-approved therapies for rare diseases. The company's revenue model involves the commercialization of these therapies, which are often priced at a premium due to their specialized nature and the small patient populations they serve. Travere also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies, which can provide additional revenue streams through milestone payments, royalties, and licensing agreements. These partnerships can be crucial for expanding the company's reach and enhancing its research and development capabilities. Key factors contributing to Travere's earnings include successful product launches, the expansion of its product portfolio, and the ability to navigate regulatory pathways effectively to bring new therapies to market.

Travere Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Travere Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges, marked by persistent losses and high leverage. While there are strong cash reserves, declining revenues and negative cash flows reflect operational inefficiencies and financial instability.
Income Statement
30
Negative
Travere Therapeutics shows a consistent negative earnings trend with declining revenues. The gross profit margin is strong at 100%, but net profit margins are deeply negative due to high operating expenses, leading to negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. Revenue growth is inconsistent, with a decline in the most recent year.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio due to its significant liabilities compared to equity, indicating high leverage. The equity ratio is low, reflecting limited shareholder equity. Although cash reserves are substantial, stockholders' equity has declined substantially, posing a financial risk.
Cash Flow
25
Negative
Operating cash flow is negative, indicating cash outflows from core operations. Free cash flow is also negative, with a declining trend, signaling challenges in sustaining operations without external financing. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is poor, highlighting inefficiencies in converting income into cash flow.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
233.18M145.24M212.02M227.49M198.32M
Gross Profit
233.18M133.79M204.43M220.71M192.19M
EBIT
-320.63M-376.74M-251.56M-139.50M-75.38M
EBITDA
-265.77M-326.25M-299.42M-186.68M-143.95M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-321.55M-111.40M-278.48M-180.09M-169.43M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
370.70M566.85M450.25M552.88M361.59M
Total Assets
594.13M788.91M672.59M776.63M607.44M
Total Debt
401.58M404.78M407.49M261.99M215.34M
Net Debt
343.05M346.61M345.80M96.23M130.57M
Total Liabilities
535.05M588.10M629.73M474.52M396.23M
Stockholders Equity
59.08M200.81M42.85M302.11M211.21M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-338.69M-322.28M-214.85M-38.94M-162.59M
Operating Cash Flow
-237.47M-280.02M-186.29M-14.79M-42.74M
Investing Cash Flow
99.33M55.78M-32.55M-137.62M-61.33M
Financing Cash Flow
139.42M218.75M117.57M231.68M127.71M

Travere Therapeutics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price20.81
Price Trends
50DMA
18.59
Positive
100DMA
18.99
Positive
200DMA
16.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.28
Negative
RSI
68.47
Neutral
STOCH
98.64
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TVTX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.21, above the 50-day MA of 18.59, and above the 200-day MA of 16.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 98.64 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TVTX.

Travere Therapeutics Risk Analysis

Travere Therapeutics disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Travere Therapeutics reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Travere Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
62
Neutral
$1.53B-13.92%24.19%10.51%
52
Neutral
$1.53B-19.18%
52
Neutral
$5.38B3.59-41.63%2.87%17.72%1.87%
51
Neutral
$1.85B18.68%36.00%63.50%
44
Neutral
$1.72B-246.75%17.27%10.01%
43
Neutral
$1.60B-27.73%-14.19%
39
Underperform
$1.49B-44.83%-20.03%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TVTX
Travere Therapeutics
20.81
14.65
237.82%
BCRX
BioCryst
8.85
4.37
97.54%
IRON
Disc Medicine
49.42
20.42
70.41%
IMCR
Immunocore Holdings
30.10
-29.36
-49.38%
VERA
Vera Therapeutics
23.37
-20.13
-46.28%
CGON
CG Oncology, Inc.
26.94
-12.56
-31.80%

Travere Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 20, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -11.75%|
Next Earnings Date:May 01, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a generally positive sentiment with significant achievements such as FDA approval and sales growth of FILSPARI, expansion plans into FSGS indication, and strong financial performance. However, challenges remain with declining sales of Thiola due to generic competition and a substantial net loss for the year.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
FDA Approval and Sales Growth of FILSPARI
FILSPARI received full FDA approval for IgA nephropathy in September 2024, leading to a 40% increase in net sales in Q4 compared to Q3. This approval allowed for broader prescribing to a wider patient population.
Expansion into FSGS Indication
Plans to submit an sNDA for FILSPARI for FSGS indication by the end of Q1 2025, supported by data from DUPLEX and DUET studies. This could potentially lead to the first-ever FDA-approved therapy for FSGS.
Strong Financial Performance
2024 net product sales grew by nearly 80% compared to 2023, driven by FILSPARI's strong uptake. FILSPARI generated $49.6 million in Q4 alone, marking a 40% growth over the previous quarter.
Positive Physician Feedback
Nephrologists are showing increased interest in FILSPARI due to its non-immunosuppressive profile and effectiveness in achieving complete remission in IgA nephropathy patients.
Successful Financing
Completed a successful financing in November 2024, raising approximately $134.7 million to support strategic priorities.
Negative Updates
Thiola Sales Decline
Thiola and Thiola EC net product sales decreased slightly in Q4 due to generic competition. Further headwinds are anticipated throughout 2025.
Significant Net Loss
Net loss for the full year 2024 was $321.5 million, compared to $111.4 million in 2023, partly due to the absence of a $265 million gain from the previous year.
Potential REMS Modification Challenges
FILSPARI is under a REMS program requiring monthly liver monitoring, which may limit patient accessibility. The company aims to modify this requirement to quarterly monitoring.
Company Guidance
During the Travere Therapeutics Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results Conference Call, significant progress and strategic priorities were discussed. FILSPARI's net sales grew nearly 40% in Q4 compared to Q3, driven by its full FDA approval for IgA nephropathy and increased demand. The company plans to submit a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) for an FSGS indication by the end of Q1 2025, supported by data from the DUPLEX and DUET studies. FILSPARI's role as a foundational therapy in IgAN was emphasized, with a focus on early treatment and lower proteinuria targets. The company also reported net product sales of $73.5 million in Q4, with FILSPARI contributing $49.6 million. Travere aims to expand FILSPARI's use and continue optimizing their pegtibatinase program for HCU. The financial outlook for 2025 includes significant growth in net product sales and disciplined investment in strategic priorities.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.