Cogent Biosciences (COGT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $844.81M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.47M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -2.53%
• Country: US
• Employees: 205
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 44
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.64
• Shares Outstanding: 113,856,450
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,304,743
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,470,628
• PEG Ratio: -0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.66
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 50.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -517.40
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.53
• 1Y Price Target: $15.50
• Price Target Upside: 113.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 37 Underperform
• Price Target: ―

Cogent Biosciences is currently facing significant financial difficulties, with no recent revenue, ongoing operating losses, and negative cash flows. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and the valuation is unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio and absence of dividends. These factors contribute to the lowest overall stock score, highlighting substantial risks for investors.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trials

Bezuclastinib has demonstrated more robust benefits and symptom improvements compared to Ayvakit, indicating a potential competitive advantage.

Earnings

Cogent Therapeutics recorded a net loss of $0.52 per share—narrower than the previously forecasted net loss of $0.65 per share.

Market Opportunities

Non-advanced systemic mastocytosis is viewed as a $2 billion plus US annual market opportunity.

Negative Factors

Investor Sentiment

Cogent Biosciences faces a high short interest, which could indicate skepticism among investors regarding its stock performance.

Regulatory Risks

Risks include negative clinical data, slower-than-expected clinical development timelines, setbacks in later-stage clinical studies, and failure to obtain regulatory approvals.

Safety Concerns

Investors are focusing on the liver profile of bezuclastinib following the disclosure of 3 cases of Grade 3 AST/ALT elevations in indolent systemic mastocytosis.

Cogent Biosciences Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cogent Biosciences, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing precision therapies to treat genetically driven diseases. The company operates primarily in the biopharmaceutical sector and is dedicated to advancing its core product pipeline, which includes experimental therapies for specific genetic mutations linked to rare disorders and cancers. Cogent Biosciences aims to address unmet medical needs through targeted treatment options, leveraging its expertise in genetic and molecular biology.

How the Company Makes Money

Cogent Biosciences makes money primarily through the development and commercialization of its precision therapies. The company generates revenue by advancing its drug candidates through clinical trials, securing regulatory approvals, and eventually launching these products into the market. Revenue streams include potential sales of approved therapies, milestone payments, and royalties from partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies who may assist in the distribution and marketing of their products. Significant partnerships with other biotech firms and research institutions may also contribute to earnings by sharing resources, expertise, and financial support in the development of their therapies.

Cogent Biosciences Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cogent Biosciences faces significant financial challenges with no recent revenue, substantial operating losses, and consistent net losses. The strong equity position is overshadowed by negative operating and free cash flows, indicating a reliance on external financing and heightened financial vulnerabilities.

Income Statement

Cogent Biosciences has experienced declining revenue over the years, with no recorded revenue in recent periods. Despite a high gross profit in earlier years, recent operating losses have been substantial, leading to negative EBIT and net income. The absence of revenue growth and consistent net losses indicate a challenging profitability environment.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a strong equity position with a high equity ratio, indicating limited financial leverage. However, persistent negative net income has impacted equity growth. Despite a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio, the lack of revenue generation poses a risk to financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cogent Biosciences has consistently negative operating and free cash flows, which raises concerns about long-term sustainability. While financing activities have historically supported liquidity, the reliance on external funding and absence of positive cash flow from operations suggest financial vulnerabilities.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.87M
	Gross Profit
-1.08M	0.00	-3.59M	-5.88M	-147.00K	7.85M
	EBIT
-288.47M	-275.94M	-208.13M	-147.84M	-75.55M	-82.20M
	EBITDA
-284.05M	-275.94M	-205.86M	-134.36M	-75.40M	-34.57M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-269.50M	-255.86M	-192.41M	-132.64M	-71.81M	-66.45M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
245.66M	287.08M	265.71M	259.28M	219.68M	242.19M
	Total Assets
283.80M	327.90M	313.44M	300.81M	232.09M	250.92M
	Total Debt
17.09M	17.47M	18.85M	19.65M	3.15M	5.21M
	Net Debt
-108.91M	-80.70M	-34.38M	-120.24M	-216.53M	-236.98M
	Total Liabilities
64.80M	71.61M	55.63M	45.08M	17.91M	16.25M
	Stockholders Equity
219.00M	256.29M	257.80M	255.74M	214.18M	234.67M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-222.82M	-208.36M	-156.42M	-125.50M	-60.48M	-35.85M
	Operating Cash Flow
-221.77M	-207.79M	-153.62M	-118.64M	-58.76M	-35.85M
	Investing Cash Flow
106.61M	38.28M	-97.82M	-124.72M	-1.72M	8.42M
	Financing Cash Flow
25.36M	214.45M	163.54M	163.56M	37.98M	232.20M

Cogent Biosciences Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.26
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COGT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.70, above the 50-day MA of 5.16, and below the 200-day MA of 8.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.99 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.69 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COGT.

Cogent Biosciences Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AVXL	62 Neutral	$693.22M	―	-40.13%	―	―	-3.08%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.40	-45.06%	3.28%	16.75%	-0.02%
BCAX	48 Neutral	$686.07M	―	34.94%	―	―	―
LENZ	46 Neutral	$790.34M	―	-24.47%	―	―	68.93%
EOLS	43 Neutral	$636.37M	―	-949.46%	―	25.38%	15.00%
PRTA	42 Neutral	$283.13M	―	-23.46%	―	54.55%	36.41%
COGT	37 Underperform	$844.81M	―	-84.04%	―	―	-2.53%