Cogent Biosciences (COGT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.68B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.47M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 2.25%
• Country: US
• Employees: 205
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 50
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.54
• Shares Outstanding: 139,700,790
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 976,739
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,472,644
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.45
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 175.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -6.97K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.62
• 1Y Price Target: $20.92
• Price Target Upside: 59.94% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

• Rating: 37 Underperform
• Price Target: ―

Cogent Biosciences is currently facing significant financial difficulties, with no recent revenue, ongoing operating losses, and negative cash flows. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and the valuation is unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio and absence of dividends. These factors contribute to the lowest overall stock score, highlighting substantial risks for investors.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trial Success

Recent top-line results for bezuclastinib’s SUMMIT trial in non-advanced systemic mastocytosis was well-received, propelling Cogent up 69%.

Market Opportunity

Bezuclastinib has the potential to address a collective $3 billion U.S. total addressable market across all three indications.

Regulatory Progress

Cogent plans to file an NDA with bezuclastinib in non-AdvSM, which indicates progress towards regulatory approval.

Negative Factors

Investor Skepticism

Short interest is at 10.0% of the float, which could indicate some skepticism or bearish sentiment among investors.

Safety Concerns

Bezuclastinib has more liver enzyme elevations at the non-AdvSM dose.

Timeline Concerns

The company changed the timing guidance for PEAK readout to 2H25, generating questions from some investors who were concerned that the change may signal that the bezu arm may be underperforming.

Cogent Biosciences Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cogent Biosciences, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on developing precision therapies for genetically defined diseases. Its lead product candidate includes CGT9486, a selective tyrosine kinase inhibitor designed to inhibit the KIT D816V mutation that drives systemic mastocytosis, as well as other mutations in KIT exon 17, which are found in patients with advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumors. It has a licensing agreement with Plexxikon Inc. for the research, development, and commercialization of bezuclastinib. The company was formerly known as Unum Therapeutics Inc. and changed its name to Cogent Biosciences, Inc. in October 2020. Cogent Biosciences, Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Cogent Biosciences makes money primarily through the development and commercialization of its precision therapies. The company generates revenue by advancing its drug candidates through clinical trials, securing regulatory approvals, and eventually launching these products into the market. Revenue streams include potential sales of approved therapies, milestone payments, and royalties from partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies who may assist in the distribution and marketing of their products. Significant partnerships with other biotech firms and research institutions may also contribute to earnings by sharing resources, expertise, and financial support in the development of their therapies.

Cogent Biosciences Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cogent Biosciences faces significant financial challenges with no recent revenue, substantial operating losses, and consistent net losses. The strong equity position is overshadowed by negative operating and free cash flows, indicating a reliance on external financing and heightened financial vulnerabilities.

Income Statement

Cogent Biosciences has experienced declining revenue over the years, with no recorded revenue in recent periods. Despite a high gross profit in earlier years, recent operating losses have been substantial, leading to negative EBIT and net income. The absence of revenue growth and consistent net losses indicate a challenging profitability environment.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a strong equity position with a high equity ratio, indicating limited financial leverage. However, persistent negative net income has impacted equity growth. Despite a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio, the lack of revenue generation poses a risk to financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cogent Biosciences has consistently negative operating and free cash flows, which raises concerns about long-term sustainability. While financing activities have historically supported liquidity, the reliance on external funding and absence of positive cash flow from operations suggest financial vulnerabilities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.29M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.87M
Gross Profit	-108.00K	-4.40M	-3.59M	-5.88M	-147.00K	7.85M
EBITDA	-286.94M	-275.94M	-205.86M	-134.36M	-75.40M	-34.57M
Net Income	-284.08M	-255.86M	-192.41M	-132.64M	-71.81M	-66.45M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	274.82M	327.90M	313.44M	300.81M	232.09M	250.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	237.85M	287.08M	265.71M	259.28M	219.68M	242.19M
Total Debt	60.66M	17.47M	18.85M	19.65M	3.15M	5.21M
Total Liabilities	119.78M	71.61M	55.63M	45.08M	17.91M	16.25M
Stockholders Equity	155.04M	256.29M	257.80M	255.74M	214.18M	234.67M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-234.65M	-208.36M	-156.42M	-125.50M	-60.48M	-35.85M
Operating Cash Flow	-233.61M	-207.79M	-153.62M	-118.64M	-58.76M	-35.85M
Investing Cash Flow	200.15M	38.28M	-97.82M	-124.72M	-1.72M	8.42M
Financing Cash Flow	72.85M	214.45M	163.54M	163.56M	37.98M	232.20M

Cogent Biosciences Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 13.08
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COGT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.81, above the 50-day MA of 10.96, and above the 200-day MA of 8.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COGT.

Cogent Biosciences Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HRMY	78 Outperform	$2.13B	12.10	27.58%	―	17.74%	59.96%
IMCR	68 Neutral	$1.63B	―	-5.38%	―	26.90%	62.72%
IDYA	58 Neutral	$2.23B	―	-35.09%	―	-41.48%	-73.55%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.90B	-0.33	-41.70%	2.23%	23.45%	-1.99%
BEAM	50 Neutral	$1.66B	―	-41.94%	―	-82.90%	-155.64%
IRON	43 Neutral	$2.13B	―	-26.36%	―	―	-22.19%
COGT	37 Underperform	$1.68B	―	-107.55%	―	―	2.25%